Dabura

It doesn't tell us much, but it's encouraging in that his possession numbers have been really, really lousy in his short time as a Wing. If he can consistently put up good possession numbers, that'll be great. And with an appropriately large sample size, we could look at him through the lens of a With Or Without You (WOWY) analysis. I'm actually not 100% sold on the almighty power of advanced stats. They definitely have their limitations, and some of their biggest proponents are in fact evil math freak pricks who think these metrics are the be-all and end-all of hockey analysis. But I do believe in them (the metrics, not the evil math freaks), and I think there's real value in them.

http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=727093 The game is all about possession. That much isn't really up for debate. The problem is, we don't have a way of measuring time of possession in hockey. So we use a proxy: shot attempts. The idea being, you can only shoot the puck if you possess the puck. Corsi is basically just +/- for shot attempts. Fenwick is the same deal except you exclude blocked shots. Sounds simple, and it is, but there's great value here. Advanced stats (which should just be called something less off-putting. Maybe extended stats?) aren't voodoo math. It's about getting a better (i.e. more nuanced, more quantifiable, more precise, more exact, more to-the-heart-of-what's-really-going-on in a given situation) handle on the game and turning that into a competitive advantage.

I couldn't believe he - whoever it was - actually said, straight up, Mike Babcock will definitely not be re-signing with the Wings because they're old and their future is really not looking bright right now. And on a national telecast! And about that - if I'm watching an NBC telecast, I'm kind of expecting, y'know, an NBC telecast. As for our third periods - I chalk it up to "score effects" more than anything else. A team with a decent lead is usually going to ease its foot off the gas and the team that's trailing is going to pick up its game (which you'll likely see reflected in the shot count). If you go into the third period with a three-goal separation, you're almost definitely going to see it happen. The trailing team thinks, "Hey, we've got nothing to lose. Let's just throw everything we've got at them." Look at Ottawa a couple nights ago - they damn near sent the game into OT. For what it's worth, though, we're +5 in first period (15 goals for, 10 goals against), +7 in the second (25/18), and +1 in the third (22/21).

So, like, this stuff is anti-hockey?

Weiss was our best forward tonight in terms of Corsi-for percentage. That, to me, is even more encouraging than the three goals in two games.

tmmlol: http://www.freep.com/story/sports/nhl/red-wings/2014/11/26/thanksgiving-detroit-red-wings/19532445/ XO is obviously our next captain.

I wonder what the record is for the longest 100% shooting percentage streak. Like, did anyone ever score on his first, say, five shots of the season?

Wow, the lines are exactly what I was hoping for. Good going, Babs!

Re: today's practice -- I've kinda been hoping for Tatar-Sheahan-Franzen, so that much is cool. I also believe Abdelkader needs to be with Z and/or Nyquist at this time, so I also like that.

Legwand isn't really a top-six centerman. We put him in that role because we were super-desperate at the time. (He's only put up six points for Ottawa, and only two of those are goals.) Personally, I'm not too concerned about the 2C spot. Sheahan, Helm, Weiss, Franzen - we have some non-Euro Twin options there, short-term and long-term. I think it'll work itself out. What does concern me is that we're on somewhat thin ice with our 1C situation. Datsyuk is struggling to stay healthy, Z looks like he's playing hurt, and no one in our pipeline projects as a top-line centerman and worthy successor to Datsyuk/Zetterberg. I'm willing to bet this is a key reason why big UFAs won't sign with the Wings. (That, and Babcock's future being up in the air.) That's why Ryan O'Reilly's #1 on my wish list. He'd give us our elite two-way 1C of the future, and in the meantime you could use him as a top-line winger. I'd be willing to pay quite a bit for this guy.

6'1 itself isn't big, but weighing 215 at that height makes you pretty big. Abdelkader, for example, is about 6'1-220.

Ryan O'Reilly, IMHO. Failing that, Franzen.

Oh, for sure. I'm just talking about the next few years, Datsyuk's last hurrah. Though, yeah, there's no guarantee that it's going to come together the away I'm envisioning it.

I posted about this very thing a few days ago. While I don't think you can pin our inconsistency on just one or two things, I'm willing to bet this is the biggest factor. The thing about a player's "prime" is it's not just some physiological thing that magically happens when you hit a certain age. It's largely just the fact that, being 27, you've been in this league for three or four or five years now. You're experienced, comfortable, confident. You're a veteran. Roughly half our roster isn't there yet, and you can definitely tell.

Hate to say it, but nothing Mantha does is going to get him more than nine games with the big club this season.

It's true. We're not catching the Habs or the Bolts, and the Bruins keep winning even without half their roster. That puts us in a dog fight with the Leafs, Sens, and a thousand Metro teams for a wild card spot. Florida might even be in the mix. The big thing is, we suck against Atlantic teams. That hurts our cause in a big way.

Petry's in a contract year and he almost certainly won't be re-upping with the Oilers. And, well, this is the Oilers. So he shouldn't cost much, even though he's by far their best defenseman. Holland probably wants to wait until around deadline time and see if he can get him for cheap. Perron's a little more complicated. He was huge for the Oilers last season (28 goals, 29 assists), he's a RH shot, he's 26, his cap hit's a very agreeable $3.8M, and he's got two more seasons on his contract (this season included). ...But he made those comments, and apparently that kind of thing's a big no-no in Oilers Land, so I guess his days in Edmonton are very much numbered. ...But he's gotten off to a very slow start this season, and even before this season had started you had people saying last season was very likely his peak. ...But Dreger's saying MacT wants a "top center" in return. ...But I doubt Holland would be all that interested in Perron anyway, so this is moot. ...But, were it up to me, and MacT wanted a solid roster player, my candidates would be Helm, Smith, Quincey, Ericsson, and Gustavsson. Y'know who I really like in the Oilers' system? A Finn by the name of Iiro Pakarinen. 23 years old, RW, RH shot, big body (6'1, 215), plays a really physical game, and has a very good scoring touch. That's the kind of player we should be looking to add to our forward corps.

His hand got infected because of that fight with Foligno. He shouldn't be out much longer.

Absolutely. For all the crap the Leafs get about being the most wildly inconsistent team in the league, I'd say the Wings are right there with them in that regard.

Oof. Not a good night for the good guys in red and white. I think it's time Babs takes some of that tough love he's been giving Tatar and spreads it around the locker room. This was a pretty terrible effort.

Our forward corps is going to be absolutely insane in a couple years.

WIIM's a great community. I post there pretty regularly. Feel free to register!

Eh, not exactly.

David Perron is cracking Just putting it out there.

To me, this is a transition/development year. We're not really looking to balls-out contend quite yet. We're setting up for next season, two seasons from now, three seasons from now. Case in point: we've got all of six skaters who are solidly in their prime years, and they are Helm, Abdelkader, Miller, Quincey, Kindl, Ericsson. (Woof.) And, just as tellingly, we're carrying ten skaters who are 25 or younger (i.e. not yet solidly in their prime years): Nyquist, Tatar, Sheahan, Jurco, Andersson, Glendening, Smith, DeKeyser, Lashoff, Ouellet. And we've got Mantha, Pulkkinen, Sproul, et al. on the horizon. When you look at it that way, and you consider how well this team's done through these first 18 games (23 points, 50 GF, 42 GA, strong possession numbers, top-end PK, six players with ten or more points), I think you have to be pretty happy with what's going on and pretty excited about what's to come.