ChristopherReevesLegs

Roast of the Red Wings on Reddit today Some funny ones: More Sigh

You keep saying 100 spots like it means something. You're arguing for a 12% advantage. The range of draft pick values are essentially a function of inverse exponential decay. Once you get past pick #45 or #50 everything drops off and bottoms out. Rounds 3-7 aren't very different at all. It'd be like if Canada offered to buy natural resources from the USA for $100 million, but Trump said no thanks, I'd rather sell my resources to China, they offered $112 million. That deal looks like a no-brainer on paper, but in terms of global politics you're enriching your enemy for a measly $12 million, and the long-term consequences of that are likely to cost you much more than $12 million.

So you think the Sens wanted Hoffman in the West because if he went to an eastern conference team it would upset Karlsson??? I'm sorry but that's the most ridiculous thing I've heard in a while. I HIGHLY doubt Karlsson cared about Hoffman's proximity to Ottawa lol. The closest other NHL franchise is MTL which is over 200 kilometers away. Yes, sending players to your opposing conference to keep your own conference weak is a thing, and its been a thing for years. I thought that was common knowledge in all sports. And which one of those deals is a gift horse like the Marleau deal? (Clue: they're not) You've completely missed the point. Divisional trades certainly happen, as I illustrated in my previous post literally breaking down the Leafs history of divisional trades. But divisional trades are much more rare, and they certainly aren't going to gift each other. The Leafs have only moved their 1st rounder in the division in the last 26 years 3 times. One was a 1st swap, and the other two were for a prominent player. The only time I can remember a divisional rival gift another divisional rival anything was the Larry Murphy to DET deal. And that was the Leafs brass caving to pressure from R-tard Leafs fans who were booing Murph every time he touched the puck. Who exactly are the Leafs getting a 3rd to target with? The draft is like 10 months away and the season hasn't even started. I doubt they know who they'd be targeting in the 1st yet if they had a 1st. Likewise, you can target guys with your 6th pick too... so I fail to see your point. Well no duh, it's too soon to tell from the last 5 years. Guys from the 2016 draft are just turning 21 now. From 2011 to 2015: Namestnikov Rakell Matheson Malcolm Subban Skjei Pearson Burakovsky Shea Theodore Hartman Pastranak Ho-Sang Adrian Kempe Boeser Konecny Also the argument "the dice have rolled well in the late 1st lately" is basic gamblers fallacy. Doesn't logically hold water at all. Lets reverse things shall we? It's August 2013. The Red Wings streak is still alive and we still have Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Franzen, and Babcock, and we have a young Tatar, Nyquist, and DK just joining the roster. Meanwhile the Leafs still suck donkey balls You're GM and you've decided the Michael Samuelsson signing was a big mistake (it was) and you want to dump his salary to make room to sign other players. The deal on the table is Samuelsson + 1st to Toronto for a 3rd round pick. Do you do it?

Fedorov Lost All His NHL Money Upon Leaving The NHL

Probably just a negotiation tactic on Marner's agents part, but god I would love to see the Leafs lose Marner for the season.

It most certainly still applies. Take Mike Hoffman. Dorion was commanded to trade him to the Western conference. He was thus traded to the Sharks and then flipped back to the Eastern conference with Florida and the Sens were pissed. The Sens essentially limited themselves to 1/2 of the teams in the league in that trade. It goes without saying that if teams are willing to cut their trading partners by 50%, they are also willing to cut them by 25%. Of course a GM would rather pick in the 3rd than in the 6th. One is higher than the other. That's not what I'm arguing... There's only 12% difference in value between 3rd and 6th. So in reality it isn't much of an upgrade in a trade scenario. Which is why I'd suggest taking a slightly lesser pick to send the 1st outside the division would be a savy move. Brayden Point is an outlier like Lidstrom, not the norm. In the last 7 years (since re-alignment) the Leafs have traded within the Atlantic 7 times. Two minor trades with Florida. Twice with the Bolts (one minor trade and a trade to acquire Brian Boyle). Three times with Ottawa (two large player swaps and one minor trade). And once with Montreal to acquire Plekanec (MTL and TOR have only traded 3 times in the last quarter century) Out of all those trades since re-alignment, the most valuable piece they gave to a divisional rival is probably Connor Brown to Ottawa. A player drafted in the 6th, who played on the 4th line under Babs, though I expect he'll be a 3rd liner in Ottawa. They have not completed a trade with Boston since 2011, Buffalo since 2009, and Detroit since 1998 (We literally haven't completed a trade with them in over 20 years). Since the Atlantic division was instituted 26 years ago, the Leafs have only moved their first rounder within the division 3 times. Once in the 90s to the Flyers for Yushkevich. In 2004 to the Rangers for Brian Leetch. And they swapped 1sts with the Islanders once upon a time. The numbers show the Leafs (and all teams) do not like to trade within their division and especially not with their rivals (in the Leafs case: Montreal and Detroit). When they do trade within the division it's usually something very minor like an AHL swap or dumping salary. The Marleau trade was a gift horse. That gift was never going to go to Detroit, or any divisional rival. No 3rd or 6th was going to change that. And I'll reiterate... this trade was not about the 6th. It was about the 1st and the cap space. You're fixated on the part of the deal that doesn't matter.

I didn't know this till yesterday, but apparently Sundin smoked his whole career, and would tape chewing tobaccy underneath his foot or under his armpit during games. Little ridiculous, but it is a different feeling when you're playing with a chaw in. Typical Leaf cheater.

Me as well

Good Always Yes Naturally, I always preach this message

No you cretin. More like this:

Precisely. A 4th has like a 20% chance of becoming an Erne. An Erne is already an Erne. Win. We have the BLM line and now the possible sesame street line. I'm trying to think of a clever connection there but I just can't place it. Regardless. Win.

Have we even determined if they are North or South Koreans attacking us yet? Know thy enemy. Russians have also made some incursions as of late, but seem to have been beaten back... for now. I for one welcome the influx of German fans. I've seen more German fans coming out of the woodwork everywhere, not just here, since drafting Seider. Deutsche, verbreiten sie die guten nachrichten des hockeys unter Ihren leuten. Wir werden ein neues Deutschland bauen. Ein Deutschland mit hockey. Remember this all. In a few years this team will be back in the playoffs. When this happens the fairweather fans will return in droves. When that happens each one of you reading this now will have much more of everyone's respect, including my own. You were here in the bad times and we will totally s*** on the fairweathers together and it will be self righteous and awesome.

Sakic would not deal Quincey within the western conference to a rival DRW for a great return. Sakic would however deal Quincey to the eastern conference for a lesser return. Your premise is that Dubas would deal Marleau within the divison to a rival DRW for a great return, over trading him to someone outside the division for a slightly lesser return. By your logic, Sakic should have traded Quincey to the Red Wings directly and garnered the 1st round pick. Therefore I'd conclude you think Sakic is stupid, or at least did something stupid in this instance. Wouldn't you agree? Holland actually did something unusually clever by his standards, to get the player he wanted. Unfortunately he overestimated the value of Quincey which was his stupid move. Not true. The 3rd and the 6th are more similar than the 3rd and 1st. Most NHL players are concentrated in the first 2 rounds. Everything after that is almost a total crap shoot. RD1: 80% chance RD2: 44% chance RD3: 30% chance RD4: 20% chance RD5: 19% chance RD6: 18% chance RD7: 17% chance Those are rough numbers provided by sportsnet: https://www.tsn.ca/playing-the-percentages-in-the-nhl-draft-1.206144 So statistically speaking there's only about a 12% difference between the 3rd and 6th rounds. But there's a whopping 50% difference between the 3rd and 1st. After the first you're really just haggling over pennies. To continue, point production per game by guys who make the NHL (measured against where a player was taken in the draft) also sharply drops after the 1st and 2nd rounds. Basically, the vast majority of point producers are selected in the first 2 rounds. After that, if you do find an NHLer, he's probably a Helm or some other bottom 6/bottom pairing player. So not only is there a wide margin of success, there's also a wide margin of quality. Zetterberg and Dastyuk are draft freaks that skew all the data. My point is it may not be the smart thing for Dubas. Giving a pick to a divisional rival that has an 80% chance of becoming a key point producer in the NHL in order to gain another 12% success rate on a relatively minor draft pick isn't conducive to long term success, and has a serious chance of biting you in the butt in a few years. Essentially giving a team who's going to take points away from you a Tatar, while gaining a Glendening yourself. In my mind it's better to give that Tatar to someone who will take less points away from you and still have a relatively good chance at that Glendening I guess you think you want. If I'm in Dubas's shoes I do the trade with Carolina over what you're suggesting with Detroit all day and twice on Sunday.

Mats Sundin spotted in Spain abreast a boobtiful woman Courtesy of @F.Michael His 16 year old brain was too overstimulated to share it himself lol (It's safe for work) EDIT: Just realized Mats is smokin' a dart in the photo. ******* legend.

So in regards to the Quincey trade, I assume you think Sakic is just stupid then? No draft pick is a lock to be an NHL player. But picks midway through the 2nd and higher have a much much higher statistical probability of becoming an NHLer. By the 3rd the chance of success really drops off. A 26-31 selection is a very valuable pick and there is very serious potential of finding a star player in that section of the draft, and we'll be lucky if we get one of those at the TDL this year. I'd be more inclined to see your POV if this was say Jordan Staal to TOR for a 1st, or Mike Green to TOR for a 1st. In those scenarios both teams are giving up value, and it's all a bit of a wash, so divisons - while still relevant - matter less to me. But in this scenario however it's essentially a 1st for cash. If I'm Dubas I'm going to be ultra concious of where I'm sending that 1st. I would not want to gift a divisional adversary and ancient rival a potential Kronwall or Fischer, in exchange for cap space... there's other teams - like the Canes - who can give me that cap space. The 6th/3rd round pick is a complete afterthought and far from the crux of the trade.

47 days until Red Wings hockey Someone should just put up the first GDT thread already so we can start discussing it.

And that player? Was Albert Einstein

My favorite example of Canadian/American relations was a few years ago when some ISIS dude said they were gonna start targeting Canada. ISIS: threatens America America: Oh no plz don't ISIS: Burns American flag American: *yawn* ISIS: threatens Canada American: YO WHAT THE ACTUAL f***??? WHAT THE HELL DID THEY EVER DO TO YOU?? SO MUCH AS TOUCH AMERICA'S HAT AND WE WILL TURN YOUR LAND INTO A ******* PARKING LOT NA 4lyfe yo I highly value character. I'd much rather have a slightly less talented player over a guy like say Evander Kane everyday. But I agree with you, character is usually just a bonus, not something you target. If say you're stuck between drafting two different players talent wise, but one has better character, maybe that's the edge and you draft that one. Et tu, Brute?

Not sure if you're being naive or disingenuous. Things aren't remotely that cut and dry. Remember when Holland used Yzerman to acquire Quincey? Sakic was willing to trade with Tampa for a much lesser return, and unwilling to trade with Detroit for a much higher return... and the rivalry between COL and DET had been dead by most fan standards for some years. That's how these things go. Sakic was reportedly pissed that Yzerman had essentially played him after the fact. Totally different scenario. Brisebois and Yzerman are reportedly very close and very friendly. Yzerman likes Erne, and Brisebois has no room to sign him. The trade kinda makes sense. Erne also looks like a career 3rd liner, not a possible star player.

One of the reasons I'm excited about Seider is I read the scouting reports and liked him, watched the footage I could find and liked him, then Yzerman drafted him high which felt extremely validating, but then, and this is this important part, I watched his interviews. The kid is gregarious and has a strong character. He was very comfortable in the spotlight despite feigning that he was nervous. The most I've seen of this from an 18 year old foreign born player maybe ever. That was the cherry on the top. Kids gonna kill. Hope he starts this year.

I still use reddit a lot. I don't normally post there, but it's still a great social aggregation website. Like facebook or any social site, they went through the period of being lawless and edgy and everyone migrated there. But, like facebook and all sites, once the user base got huge they started to try find ways to monetize and become safer for advertisers. That meant reeling in all the things that made them popular to begin with. That started like 4 or 5 years ago now. I'd say they're on their death spiral, but if you only use r/hockey or r/detroitredwings it's great for new updates if you don't wanna comb twitter.

I so much want to checkout during the summer, but I think this site will die if any of us did that. And this is why we must over-analyze all summer and start flame wars, for the good of the forum...

Yeah I posted this in another thread. I assumed bc we hired a new video coach and nightingale was still on staff that he had been promoted. Yzerman or Blashill must like him enough at least for now. I still think Yzerman may fire Blashill in the next two years and overhaul the coaching staff, and this is just a holding pattern.

This one? Not really my style, but the flag on the back is kinda tight. I'd honestly prefer it with 50 stars, but yeah the shutdown of this shoe because of the flag is beyond moronic. Lets not even get started. No, like I said I don't think this was ever a game worn jersey. Just a one-off for the fans. I've always liked coloring the number personally, gives a jersey some subtle pop. You're right that would be pretty sweet actually. Some flags might be harder to do thou. Bummer, they probably only make certain models here. I've got a "shoe guy" who hooks me up at cost on other brands, so I don't buy New Balance anymore. But fun story, I called this guy right after the China Tariffs were announced to pick his brain on how they were gonna deal with the tariffs (all their shoes are made in China). He says "all of our business will be moved to Vietnam within the week". So do tariffs work? Eh probably not, big companies will just move to the next cheapest country. But I do think the sanctions are puttin' the hurt on China more than anyone realizes. Sorry I've gone way off track.