Interesting expansion thoughts

[eva unit zero 271]

I was sitting here, pondering a series of questions.

We all would like the Wings to be in the Eastern Conference.

We know the NHL is considering a small expansion down the road.

We know that Jim Balsillie wants to put a team in Hamilton, and the chances of that happening outside of expansion are slim unless he is willing to vastly change his approach.

I and others have stated that 32 teams is a good size for the league as far as divisions, travel, etc.

Some of my past ideas for realignment when the league was less financially secure included mergers of teams. This avoids the buyout that contraction would require, and allows two struggling teams to put together what parts they DO have and compete at a higher level.

There have been (somewhat dubious) reports that many small-market teams in the South are unhappy with the way the salary floor is working out.

So I wondered; What if the NHL expanded with four new teams (Kansas City, Portland, Houston, and Hamilton) and we saw a loss of two total franchises from the existing base due to mergers, getting us to that magic '32' while adding teams in the Western Conference.

So I took a look at the most recent list of franchise values, as well as attendance figures and wondered...what four teams would be the most in need of a merger, that could be linked to another local team? Teams that get less than satisfactory attendance consistently and have low value are the winners here.

The answer also needs to satisfy the requirement that we lose two Eastern Conference teams, to allow for Detroit and Columbus to move to the East; because we know Detroit doesn't move before Columbus does. I also tried to stay away from picking any team from the last expansion, as their values will be lower due to the fact they have been in the league less than ten seasons. A nearby, more stable, team also helps to qualify a team for 'merger' status, as does limited 'history' meaning teams with less historical success are more likely to be 'merger' teams. Ownership also has to be considered; group ownership is more likely to see a merger than single ownership as a single owner generally will not want to give up control, while a group will already have processes in place for those kind of things.

The answers I came up with?

Washington has been a generally futile club with low attendance and poor revenue and value, and the team has pretty much always been ignored by the market. Even in 98, when they reached the Cup finals, nobody cared.

Florida has been, other than a 1996 Finals run where they were carried by the Beezer, pretty much the definition of futility in the NHL. Combine that with an apathetic fan base, poor revenue, and low franchise value as well as a much more successful neighbor in Tampa Bay, and you have the second candidate.

So who do they merge with?

Florida obviously merges with...NOT Tampa Bay. The Lightning are one of the more valuable franchises in the league. However, Atlanta is another team that has had similar 'shaky' success as the Panthers. An infusion of assets and additional owner resources through a merger might help both clubs.

Washington? Well, the reasonable answer would be another struggling East Coast team that has seen poor attendance and financial struggles but generally has a better fan base. The obvious answer is the New York Islanders.

Of course, we're also adding four teams in this process. So it doesn't seem fair to just let two teams have two rosters' worth of players, and then the other expansion teams get to pick leftovers.

So here's how it would be handled...

Phase 1: Existing teams, including New York and Atlanta would select a roster of 13 skaters and one goaltender to protect. Players who are waiver exempt would also be ineligible. Assuming approximately 20% of unprotected NHLers are exempt, this would mean that about 220 players would be 'available' for selection at this point. These must be players with either an existing contract or RFA status. The four expansions teams would be allowed to draft up to 13 skaters and one goaltender from the available players. 42 players are selected. No team except for can lose more than two players, nor can a team lose more than one player who is either a defenseman or a goaltender. The exception to this final rule is that NYI and Atl will still count as two teams for this, and thus can lose up to four players each, including a maximum of 2 D/G. All teams must expose at least two forwards, one defenseman, and one goaltender. A team must also effectively name its roster; 14 on the protected list, plus waiver exempts. A team must expose enough players after that to fill out a 23-man roster; meaning a team with zero 'waiver exempt' players must expose a total of nine players, minimum.

Phase 2: Expansion teams, as well as the Islanders and Thrashers, participate in a second draft. All 'exposed' Islander and Thrasher players will be considered 'available' for this draft. The 2 player, 1 D/G limit will continue to be respected with regards to the other 26 teams; so this phase will be, for the most part, a divvying up of unclaimed assets that belonged to the Panthers, Thrashers, Islanders, or Capitals. Each team will draft eleven players, including no more than two additional goaltenders.

Phase 3: The Isles and Thrashers are allowed to select 50% (rounding down) of the 'waiver exempt' players who were not also on the team's initial 'protected' list. The four 'expansion' teams are then allowed to select up to two players each from the remainder who played in the NHL the previous season, with neither team losing more than four players.

This allows the Isles and Thrashers to keep core players such as Kovalchuk and Ovechkin, but allows the expansion teams to build something of a core before they have to compete with the Isles and Thrashers for players in the second phase. It also allows the six clubs equal chance to add extra players; which may include higher paid players the existing clubs could not justify keeping given the salary cap. It also allows the expansion teams to pick up some younger players who could help them, but are less likely to see time with the established clubs.

It would be interesting.

[omnipotent_hudler 0]

meh

Washington's fan base has been picking up pretty steadily as of late

I'd honestly rather axe Atlanta

[Wings_Dynasty 267]

meh

Washington's fan base has been picking up pretty steadily as of late

I'd honestly rather axe Atlanta

I agree. Wash has been getting better, and OV is really keeping the place alive.

Atlanta, Carolina, and Florida. 2 of those 3.

[VM1138 1,921]

I kind of like Washington, but how long can a single player keep the franchise alive?

I didn't really follow all of that, because I'm not familiar with the legalese of waivers, "protected status", etc., and it included a lot of numbers which I'm not good with.

All I can say is that merging teams would be an interesting experiment. Has it been done before in any sport? I've never heard of it.

Also, if any teams have to move, I think we can all agree that these teams would be among the first to go:

Atlanta, Florida, Phoenix, Nashville.

I mean, what are these teams even doing here?

I think the Isles should be left alone, because they have a rabid fan base and a long history. Every team goes through a slump and I'm happy no one messed with the Wings during their 40 year slump.

I think teams with an established history of success should be left alone in any considerations.

[wingsdiehard13 33]

I kind of like Washington, but how long can a single player keep the franchise alive?

I didn't really follow all of that, because I'm not familiar with the legalese of waivers, "protected status", etc., and it included a lot of numbers which I'm not good with.

All I can say is that merging teams would be an interesting experiment. Has it been done before in any sport? I've never heard of it.

Also, if any teams have to move, I think we can all agree that these teams would be among the first to go:

Atlanta, Florida, Phoenix, Nashville.

I mean, what are these teams even doing here?

I think the Isles should be left alone, because they have a rabid fan base and a long history. Every team goes through a slump and I'm happy no one messed with the Wings during their 40 year slump.

I think teams with an established history of success should be left alone in any considerations.

Yes, the Cleveland Baron's (Which were originally the California Golden Seals) merged with the Minnesota North Stars in 1976

[CrossoverThrash 0]

fricken move carolina back to the north, at least the other 3 southern teams were expansion

[wingsdiehard13 33]

As far as the expansion, I love it. I also like the merging of the teams. However, I don't think the Capitals should be merged. The only problem is, there really isn't another team that would make as much sense to terminate. I mean Atlanta is the team most people would want gone, but by your terms no teams from the last set of expansion teams.

[Grim 5]

my dream scenario... NHL lets Karmanos move his franchise to Detroit (Western conference), with hooks to renovate JLA. The Wings rightfully move into their new Arena and the Eastern conference. we become a two-conference town.

sure we've been experiencing attendence woes. i bet it picks up when the Pistons slide back to mediocrity.

[wingsdiehard13 33]

my dream scenario... NHL lets Karmanos move his franchise to Detroit (Western conference), with hooks to renovate JLA. The Wings rightfully move into their new Arena and the Eastern conference. we become a two-conference town.

sure we've been experiencing attendence woes. i bet it picks up when the Pistons slide back to mediocrity.

I sincerely hope you are being sarcastic.

[Opie 308]

Before expanding shouldn't the league be able to support the existing problems, uh I mean teams!

[2probert4 8]

I kind of like Washington, but how long can a single player keep the franchise alive?

I didn't really follow all of that, because I'm not familiar with the legalese of waivers, "protected status", etc., and it included a lot of numbers which I'm not good with.

All I can say is that merging teams would be an interesting experiment. Has it been done before in any sport? I've never heard of it.

Also, if any teams have to move, I think we can all agree that these teams would be among the first to go:

Atlanta, Florida, Phoenix, Nashville.

I mean, what are these teams even doing here?

I think the Isles should be left alone, because they have a rabid fan base and a long history. Every team goes through a slump and I'm happy no one messed with the Wings during their 40 year slump.

I think teams with an established history of success should be left alone in any considerations.

Nashville is protected by Bettman - if he gets rid of them, then he has to admit hockey in the mid-south has failed. I dont know what numbers in attendance that Atlanta has, same with Florida. Phoenix is bad as well. He has also said there wont be expansion anytime soon. (Bettman stated that when the guy in Las Vegas started chirping he wanted a team in Nevada) Teams merging and all of that stuff that Ev spewed - one way or another in that deal, there would be players losing jobs and the union wouldn't go for that. I agree that something needs to be done, I don't like the idea of the Wings and other teams having to fork over money to these teams that can't keep themselves afloat on their own.

[JPT 26]

my dream scenario... NHL lets Karmanos move his franchise to Detroit (Western conference), with hooks to renovate JLA. The Wings rightfully move into their new Arena and the Eastern conference. we become a two-conference town.

sure we've been experiencing attendence woes. i bet it picks up when the Pistons slide back to mediocrity.

Words can't even describe how moronic this is....

If there is sarcasm here I didn't pick up on it

[JPT 26]

However much it might make sense to move a moribund franchise such as Florida to Hamilton or KC or whereever I don't think its in Bettmans makeup to admit mistakes and correct them.

[joshy207 156]

my dream scenario... NHL lets Karmanos move his franchise to Detroit (Western conference), with hooks to renovate JLA. The Wings rightfully move into their new Arena and the Eastern conference. we become a two-conference town.

sure we've been experiencing attendence woes. i bet it picks up when the Pistons slide back to mediocrity.

10 years ago, I was screaming for this kind of thing. Wings' tickets were beyond impossible to get, and there are enough "hockey" fans (not just Wings fans) to support 2 teams... but with our economy the way it is, we can barely support one team now.

A second team in Toronto wouldn't be a bad idea, except MLSE will never let it happen.

[McCartyFanForLife 17]

10 years ago, I was screaming for this kind of thing. Wings' tickets were beyond impossible to get, and there are enough "hockey" fans (not just Wings fans) to support 2 teams... but with our economy the way it is, we can barely support one team now.

A second team in Toronto wouldn't be a bad idea, except MLSE will never let it happen.

I think if any NHL team is added to Michigan, it would be in the Grand Rapids area. I'd love to have a pro sports team in West Michigan. I love my Wings, but I can't afford to drive across the state for more than 1 or 2 games a year. I dunno, I doubt this will happen in the next 5 years, but it would be cool to see it happen eventually.

[joshy207 156]

Grand Rapids?? There's no way. Edmonton is the smallest market at just under 600,000 people... GR is no more than 1/3 of that size. Even if you add in Muskegon, Kalamazoo, Lansing... it just wouldn't work. Besides, the Griffins ARE a pro team.

[McCartyFanForLife 17]

Grand Rapids?? There's no way. Edmonton is the smallest market at just under 600,000 people... GR is no more than 1/3 of that size. Even if you add in Muskegon, Kalamazoo, Lansing... it just wouldn't work. Besides, the Griffins ARE a pro team.

Actually, the metro Edmonton area has just over 1,000,000 people. The metro Grand Rapids area has over 1,300,000 people, so it's not that out of the question. And I mean pro as in MLB, NBA, NHL, etc. Not minor league level.

[ashenhigh 9]

you cant just go and take the western conference's super power out and put them in the east. doesnt work. Nashville and Columbus would both move east before the wings did.

[Guest GordieSid&Ted]

I was sitting here, pondering a series of questions.

We all would like the Wings to be in the Eastern Conference.

We know the NHL is considering a small expansion down the road.

We know that Jim Balsillie wants to put a team in Hamilton, and the chances of that happening outside of expansion are slim unless he is willing to vastly change his approach.

I and others have stated that 32 teams is a good size for the league as far as divisions, travel, etc.

Some of my past ideas for realignment when the league was less financially secure included mergers of teams. This avoids the buyout that contraction would require, and allows two struggling teams to put together what parts they DO have and compete at a higher level.

There have been (somewhat dubious) reports that many small-market teams in the South are unhappy with the way the salary floor is working out.

So I wondered; What if the NHL expanded with four new teams (Kansas City, Portland, Houston, and Hamilton) and we saw a loss of two total franchises from the existing base due to mergers, getting us to that magic '32' while adding teams in the Western Conference.

So I took a look at the most recent list of franchise values, as well as attendance figures and wondered...what four teams would be the most in need of a merger, that could be linked to another local team? Teams that get less than satisfactory attendance consistently and have low value are the winners here.

The answer also needs to satisfy the requirement that we lose two Eastern Conference teams, to allow for Detroit and Columbus to move to the East; because we know Detroit doesn't move before Columbus does. I also tried to stay away from picking any team from the last expansion, as their values will be lower due to the fact they have been in the league less than ten seasons. A nearby, more stable, team also helps to qualify a team for 'merger' status, as does limited 'history' meaning teams with less historical success are more likely to be 'merger' teams. Ownership also has to be considered; group ownership is more likely to see a merger than single ownership as a single owner generally will not want to give up control, while a group will already have processes in place for those kind of things.

The answers I came up with?

Washington has been a generally futile club with low attendance and poor revenue and value, and the team has pretty much always been ignored by the market. Even in 98, when they reached the Cup finals, nobody cared.

Florida has been, other than a 1996 Finals run where they were carried by the Beezer, pretty much the definition of futility in the NHL. Combine that with an apathetic fan base, poor revenue, and low franchise value as well as a much more successful neighbor in Tampa Bay, and you have the second candidate.

So who do they merge with?

Florida obviously merges with...NOT Tampa Bay. The Lightning are one of the more valuable franchises in the league. However, Atlanta is another team that has had similar 'shaky' success as the Panthers. An infusion of assets and additional owner resources through a merger might help both clubs.

Washington? Well, the reasonable answer would be another struggling East Coast team that has seen poor attendance and financial struggles but generally has a better fan base. The obvious answer is the New York Islanders.

Of course, we're also adding four teams in this process. So it doesn't seem fair to just let two teams have two rosters' worth of players, and then the other expansion teams get to pick leftovers.

So here's how it would be handled...

Phase 1: Existing teams, including New York and Atlanta would select a roster of 13 skaters and one goaltender to protect. Players who are waiver exempt would also be ineligible. Assuming approximately 20% of unprotected NHLers are exempt, this would mean that about 220 players would be 'available' for selection at this point. These must be players with either an existing contract or RFA status. The four expansions teams would be allowed to draft up to 13 skaters and one goaltender from the available players. 42 players are selected. No team except for can lose more than two players, nor can a team lose more than one player who is either a defenseman or a goaltender. The exception to this final rule is that NYI and Atl will still count as two teams for this, and thus can lose up to four players each, including a maximum of 2 D/G.

All teams must expose at least two forwards, one defenseman, and one goaltender. A team must also effectively name its roster; 14 on the protected list, plus waiver exempts. A team must expose enough players after that to fill out a 23-man roster; meaning a team with zero 'waiver exempt' players must expose a total of nine players, minimum.

Phase 2: Expansion teams, as well as the Islanders and Thrashers, participate in a second draft. All 'exposed' Islander and Thrasher players will be considered 'available' for this draft. The 2 player, 1 D/G limit will continue to be respected with regards to the other 26 teams; so this phase will be, for the most part, a divvying up of unclaimed assets that belonged to the Panthers, Thrashers, Islanders, or Capitals. Each team will draft eleven players, including no more than two additional goaltenders.

Phase 3: The Isles and Thrashers are allowed to select 50% (rounding down) of the 'waiver exempt' players who were not also on the team's initial 'protected' list. The four 'expansion' teams are then allowed to select up to two players each from the remainder who played in the NHL the previous season, with neither team losing more than four players.

This allows the Isles and Thrashers to keep core players such as Kovalchuk and Ovechkin, but allows the expansion teams to build something of a core before they have to compete with the Isles and Thrashers for players in the second phase. It also allows the six clubs equal chance to add extra players; which may include higher paid players the existing clubs could not justify keeping given the salary cap. It also allows the expansion teams to pick up some younger players who could help them, but are less likely to see time with the established clubs.

It would be interesting.

Holy crap Eva, go get a fricken hobby or something. I applaud the effort it must have taken though.

Nobody is going to merge. You aren't going to get any of these owners to merge. If there are owners out there losing money, they're going to want to jack the price up and sell off their lemon to some other fool businessman who wants a plaything sports team to own.

The league might be able to handle adding 2 teams to the existing 30 without losing any but considering the names I see on alot of NHL rosters. They don't need to add more teams.

Logistically, this entire thing seems improbable. Mergers, protected player's lists, secondary drafts. Not that it hasn't been done but I just don't see it happening again.

IMO, the league is only just starting to take some baby steps. So let's nurture this baby instead of throwing the NHL universe into upheaval by merging teams, creating new teams, expanding an already bloated league, etc.....

Hamilton? Kansas? Another southern team in Texas? I don't know much about these markets but it doesn't sound all that prospective to me. What were the attendance numbers for the last 1/2 dozen expansion teams in their first year compared to their 2nd year and their

third year? I'm curious to know. I'd be shocked if they improved. Seems to me they probably dipped and the league couldn't handle 4 markets simultaneously dropping in popularity after the "honeymoon" wears off.

I say leave the league alone. Eventually natural selection will take care of itself.

[McCartyFanForLife 17]

you cant just go and take the western conference's super power out and put them in the east. doesnt work. Nashville and Columbus would both move east before the wings did.

Nashville is further west than Detroit and is actually in the central time zone; doesn't make much sense to move them to the eastern conference. Columbus is almost directly south of Detroit.

[Viperar 16]

no thanks

[MississippiWing 14]

Bruce Boudreau has been building the Caps fan base back up with the way he put that run together this year. I think if he keeps building support and manages players well they can become a contender for the east.

[Opie 308]

Bruce Boudreau has been building the Caps fan base back up with the way he put that run together this year. I think if he keeps building support and manages players well they can become a contender for the east.

Plus he has the most dynamic player in hockey right now!

AO is a blast to watch his interviews, he is a blast to watch on the ice, that has got to draw fans.

What are the preds fans drawn to?

Jordin Tootoo? Come on it may be fun to root for a bad guy, but not when he is the only player to root for.

Florida, I think Olli will be great, but will never be a star in Florida, he is too quiet too shy. Not his fault but he is not going to draw a crowd without a winning team!

The league really needs to stabilize it's franchises before they can even entertain the idea of expansion.

Adding another 2 teams to the league is going to help Nashville thrive how? Florida? Phoenix?

You get the point.

Eva,

You and I have very different opinions of expansion, you think it is good I don't. But I would think we would both agree you have to get the teams that exist a float before you can even think of adding more. What good is it to have Detroit giving money to 2 more teams, or lets say the teams are added in areas that you don't need to support them, why should a brand new team that is out drawing Nashville pay to keep Nashville around?

I hate to keep dogging on Nashville but the league, BOG, owners group are all responsible for the mess that has been created there!

[ch777 0]

Expansion would bring more crappy players into the league that are not good enough and more knuckleheads into the league

[Hank 0]

meh

Washington's fan base has been picking up pretty steadily as of late

I'd honestly rather axe Atlanta

Do I hear a bid for Phoenix as well?

P.S. Certain sources have said that with revenue sharing, these teams complaining about the floor need to shut-up. They're compensated well and if they're struggling they're probably in a horrible market.

Seeing that the 'Yotes only generated $450,000 last year in tickets sales I'd say they're the first to go...and shut-up about the salary floor.

P.S.S. Opie, you make some very valid points. Unfortunately, the owners see a $200-250M expansion fee and all they can think of is $$$. They don't care what it would do or not do for the league. Their greed basically got us into the dead-puck era when the league became so watered down, defensive traps and clutching & grabbing were needed to compete on a nightly basis.

Edited June 11, 2008 by Hank