Aussie_Wing 354 Report post Posted October 20, 2008 OK so I’ve been thinking about the short (and long) term future of the Wings team. I really take a keen following in our prospects and their development throughout the various leagues. I should add that this post is very speculative and no doubt I’ll get calls telling me to wait until the end of the season when thing become a bit clearer. But I thought I’d do a bit of crystal balling and I thought it could be interesting. I’d be real interested to hear some feedback. At seasons end we will have the following players out of contract. Realistically with the salary cap, which is reportedly set to decrease, we won’t be able to hold onto all of them even if we wanted to. So let’s break them down one by one, in order of importance. • Zetterberg- UFA. On the open market would command a salary of about $9mil but expect him to re-sign at about 7.5. The Wings won’t let him go and he’ll be back. • Franzen- UFA. Up there with Zetterberg as one of the biggest steals in the NHL as he is only making just over a million. I’m expecting him to sign for about $4-5mil. • Hossa- UFA. I don’t expect him to re-sign as we just won’t be able to pay him what he deserves. We can’t be paying 5 players $6mil or above, it’s just not feasible. It would require a miracle for him to be back. • Leino- RFA. Babcock has made it quite clear that he sees big things in store for the Leino. Only our depth has kept him out of Detroit. Considering his offensive upside and eagerness to improve, he could find himself on a scoring line as soon as next season. I see him as another Hudler, limited ES time but used regularly on the PP. He might force Hudler out. • Hudler- RFA. I get the feeling Hudler won’t be a Wing next season. Babcock has always been hard on him and despite his success in last years playoffs he still hasn’t won the trust of the coaching staff. Babcock might see him as expandable but personally I’d hate to see him leave as he has the potential to be a 30 goal, 70 point man IMO. • Samuelsson- UFA. To me he is expendable but considering he plays the point on the 2nd PP unit and is often bumped up to the second line it’s hard seeing us part ways with Sammy. Babs likes his size, defensive capabilities and willingness to shoot. I could see him taking a slight increase in salary to about $2mil. • Kopecky- UFA. The man everyone loves to hate and while I’m a pretty big fan, his future is up in the air. Abdelkader could quite easily take his role and we wouldn’t notice the difference. Kopecky is very cheap though and would likely stay that way so they could easily re-sign him. • McCarty- UFA. Has the advantage over Downey of being a long-term member of the Wings but hard to see him being back next season. Does have an offensive edge over Downey. • Downey- UFA. Unlikely to sign, if he does he’ll come very cheap. The fact that we don’t have any prospects of a similar style might bode well for him but to me he’s easily replaceable. • Conklin- UFA. Unlikely to stay because Howard should finally be ready to go next season. If Howard has another inconsistent year and Conklin shines, he might be back. • Chelios- UFA. Enough is enough, if he wants to return let him sign somewhere else. I understand what he's brought to our team but he can't be holding back the youngster any longer. And that leads me to my next point, how do you realistically see our prospects developing and which do you see making the team in the future (I'll touch on this later)? In the short term, there are a few prospects that come out of contract at seasons end. I expect McGrath, Oulahen and Gelech, all RFA’s, to be let go. McGrath just hasn’t shown enough, Oulahen is a Matt Ellis clone although not as good and while the Wings like Gelech’s size and physicality he’s been underwhelming with the Griffins. So here is how I see the Wings in 2009/10: Zetterberg – Datsyuk –Holmstrom Franzen – Filppula – Samuelsson Leino – Helm – Cleary Maltby – Draper – Kopecky Lidstrom – Rafalski Kronwall – Stuart Lilja – Ericsson Meech Osgood Howard A few points: • Come next season, I expect Ericsson to be up with the Wings. He’s clearly NHL ready, the coaching staff rave about him whenever they can and they won’t be able to deny him another year. Although contracted, I expect Lebda will be traded. • I don’t have Hudler in the line-up because I just get the feeling we’ll value Leino more. It all depends on what happens with Leino this season though, for all we know he could pack it up and head back to Finland but I sense he’ll stick around. • I’ve accounted for Chelios finally retiring. If he doesn’t, let him sign elsewhere. He can’t keep taking the place of the youngsters. • Maltby is next to useless but alas he is contracted for next season. • I’ve factored in Hossa not returning. If he returns, then I can safely say we’ll lose 2 UFA’s. We minimize the potential loss if Hossa doesn’t return. • Is Meech satisfied being #7 again? Hard to tell, most likely not though. He deserves a shot but Lilja is contracted another year and none of the ‘big 4’ look set to leave anytime soon. Without any shadow of a doubt though, one of Lebda and Meech won’t be a Wing next season, simply not enough room. • Some massive “hometown” discounts will have to be taken by our free agents because of the 11 I see maybe 6 staying at the max. One thing is for certain, we’ll be right up against the cap again next season. The Wings management are going to have make some extremely tough calls at the end of this season and the season after. Without wanting to look too far into the future (yes, too late now!) I think for season 2010/11 in a perfect world Maltby would have moved on and in comes Abdelkader to take his place on a checking line. By this time I expect Kindl to be NHL ready and to replace Lilja. Ericsson will have taken over Lilja’s tasks by this stage and Kindl can start by playing the role as offensive defenceman. And the last “major” move would be seeing the highly skilled Mattias Ritola replace Samuelsson in the top 6. Sorry for making it so long, if you've made it to the end I'd really like to hear your thoughts. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ZETTERBERGPWN 2 Report post Posted October 20, 2008 i really hope ericsson leino and helm will do the team next season ! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Echolalia 2,961 Report post Posted October 20, 2008 Excellent analysis, I don't disagree with anything, although I haven't done any number crunching or anything, and I'm somewhat worried about Franzen testing the open market. He's suddenly had a taste of super-stardom what with being the goal scorer of the league the past 3 months of hockey. He's also shaping up to be a rare breed of ideal 90's style powerforward in the new nhl, which could get him some major money in some other team. He may not want to live in Zetterberg's and Datsyuk's shadow and play on a first line somewhere else. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NeverForgetMac25 483 Report post Posted October 20, 2008 i really hope ericsson leino and helm will do the team next season ! I think there's a very solid chance all of them will be up given the Wings cap situation. The fact of the matter is that its going to be a rough offseason given the amount of top-end UFA's the Wings have to re-sign, and any chance they have at bringing up reasonable priced talent will only help balance off the increased wages of Z, Franzen, etc. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Aussie_Wing 354 Report post Posted October 20, 2008 I think there's a very solid chance all of them will be up given the Wings cap situation. The fact of the matter is that its going to be a rough offseason given the amount of top-end UFA's the Wings have to re-sign, and any chance they have at bringing up reasonable priced talent will only help balance off the increased wages of Z, Franzen, etc. If you look at my predicted 3rd and 4th lines, thankfully there is very little money tied up there. Cleary is reasonably expensive but then again he’s probably good enough to see consistent top 6 minutes. Draper is probably a tad high for what he now brings to the table and I wish he was on more of a Maltby salary. We won’t be able to re-sign Zetterberg, Hossa AND Franzen. We’ll be lucky to sign two. And then it probably comes down to how much Samuelsson and Hudler are willing to take. Personally I’d ditch Sammy and bring up Abdelkader, which would leave the lines looking looking something like this… Zetterberg – Datsyuk – Holmstrom Franzen – Filppula – Cleary Leino – Abdelkader – Helm Maltby – Draper – Kopecky Again, I'd have Hudler but the more I think about it the more I can't see him returning. Realistically I think Leino will have to go for him to remain. Ken Holland recently said this is the last season we’ll be able to afford everyone as he simply won’t be able to keep them all. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Drake_Marcus 890 Report post Posted October 20, 2008 i really hope ericsson leino and helm will do the team next season ! No need to hope- this is Ericsson last year of waiver-free status. He will be a full-time member of the top 6 next season. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jawbreaker 0 Report post Posted October 20, 2008 In the end it comes to: 1. How much will Hank demand? 2. How much more Hossa will demand than Franzen? 3. After signing Hank and Hossa/Franzen we can fit our depth under the salary cap. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NeverForgetMac25 483 Report post Posted October 20, 2008 If you look at my predicted 3rd and 4th lines, thankfully there is very little money tied up there. Cleary is reasonably expensive but then again he’s probably good enough to see consistent top 6 minutes. Draper is probably a tad high for what he now brings to the table and I wish he was on more of a Maltby salary. We won’t be able to re-sign Zetterberg, Hossa AND Franzen. We’ll be lucky to sign two. And then it probably comes down to how much Samuelsson and Hudler are willing to take. Personally I’d ditch Sammy and bring up Abdelkader, which would leave the lines looking looking something like this… Zetterberg – Datsyuk – Holmstrom Franzen – Filppula – Cleary Leino – Abdelkader – Helm Maltby – Draper – Kopecky Again, I'd have Hudler but the more I think about it the more I can't see him returning. Realistically I think Leino will have to go for him to remain. Ken Holland recently said this is the last season we’ll be able to afford everyone as he simply won’t be able to keep them all. I don't disagree. That was the whole point of my post. All three of those guys that are currently in the minors stand a great chance of being with the big club next year given the Wings' Cap situation. If those guys can bring to the table what is realistically expected of them, the Wings are fine shape. As for Hudler....he's a wildcard given that he's a RFA next year rather than an UFA. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Questron 0 Report post Posted October 20, 2008 • Hossa- UFA. I don’t expect him to re-sign as we just won’t be able to pay him what he deserves. We can’t be paying 5 players $6mil or above, it’s just not feasible. It would require a miracle for him to be back. If the cap goes up and Kenny can work his usual "Hometown Discount" magic you might just get your miracle! Datsyuk - Zetterberg - Holmstrom Franzen - Leino - Hossa Cleary - Filppula - Abdelkader Helm - Draper - Kopecky Lidstrom - Rafalski Kronwall - Stuart Ericsson - Lilja Osgood Howard Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Guest LivingtheDream Report post Posted October 21, 2008 Excellent analysis, I don't disagree with anything, although I haven't done any number crunching or anything, and I'm somewhat worried about Franzen testing the open market. He's suddenly had a taste of super-stardom what with being the goal scorer of the league the past 3 months of hockey. He's also shaping up to be a rare breed of ideal 90's style powerforward in the new nhl, which could get him some major money in some other team. He may not want to live in Zetterberg's and Datsyuk's shadow and play on a first line somewhere else. Maybe, but he also has a recent taste for winning the Cup and that taste just might be the one he wants most. We are not talking about Federov here, Franzen has displayed none of this kind of ego. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
betterREDthandead 58 Report post Posted October 21, 2008 I don't disagree. That was the whole point of my post. All three of those guys that are currently in the minors stand a great chance of being with the big club next year given the Wings' Cap situation. If those guys can bring to the table what is realistically expected of them, the Wings are fine shape. As for Hudler....he's a wildcard given that he's a RFA next year rather than an UFA. Which I think makes him a great candidate to be gone. Losing him means compensation, losing anyone else means none. Holland can make an "effort" to keep him and let him walk to another team. He's got the skills but I think he's replaceable especially if not re-signing him means more room for keeping Hossa. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
HadThomasVokounOnFortSt 878 Report post Posted October 21, 2008 Nice work on everything! I have read it all and everything looks good. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
finalfilppula 2 Report post Posted October 21, 2008 sounds good. franzen will leave next year to start his own nature show. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
