Ilya Kovalchuk struggles..A thrasher no longer?

[Drake_Marcus 890]

If he doesn't have a contract by the deadline he's out of atlanta...

this is as sure as death and taxes...

and Don Cherry wearing ridiculous suits...

That's what we all said about Bouwmeester.

[rage 24]

It really isn't going to be an issue for them. If they don't resign him they have a lot of UFA's and RFA's that wil have their salaries bumped up. Little will need to make a decent cheque next year as will Afinogenov as long as they can keep him which I think they can. Kubina may get a bump as well and they aren't that close to the cap floor.

Okay, but he made it sound like if they traded Kovalchuk this year and didn't get enough salary back then they'd be under the League Min. Cap.

[Drake_Marcus 890]

Funny as it sounds, trading Kovalchuk is probably the best thing that could happen to the Thrashers; the trade would have to be cap-even meaning they would get likely one very good player plus two or three solid players and a pick or two.

Something like this might be what we would see:

To Atlanta: F Patrice Bergeron, F Blake Wheeler, and two first round picks

To Boston: F Ilya Kovalchuk and a second round pick

This deal is unbalanced cap-wise, sending about $1.5m more to Atlanta. This is fine in terms of the cap, as Atlanta has $11m available, while a healthy Boston roster probably would be over the cap. Boston gets to reunite the explosive Savard-Kovalchuk combination and Atlanta gets two solid forwards to play with guys like Peverly, Kozlov, Afinogenov, and Little and perhaps provide even better all-around scoring and a team that wins more often.

So your theory is that a cohesive, well rounded, winning club sells more tickets than the same club that's a bit more top heavy, has a superstar and probably doesn't win much? I agree with you but the big gamble is whether the trade will make for a club like I've described. The bigger problem is if the same thing happens with Kovy that happened with Hossa-- the team loses a superstar but doesn't have a short-term benefit (although they got a king's ransom for Hossa from the foolish Pens and I think it did help their club long term).

[MacK_Attack 108]

The belief is that some of the owners of the Thrashers (they have that big mess of owners that like to sue each other) would like to sign Kovalchuk for the sole purpose of franchise value, as they would like to sell soon.

[eva unit zero 271]

Okay, but he made it sound like if they traded Kovalchuk this year and didn't get enough salary back then they'd be under the League Min. Cap.

This is a true statement; however they would only need to get a player back who makes about $1m to cover that gap. As for needing him to clear the floor in the offseason, they have many RFAs and UFAs to resign and there is so much high-end talent available that Kovalchuk staying or going is not a factor in Atlanta making the cap floor.

[rage 24]

The belief is that some of the owners of the Thrashers (they have that big mess of owners that like to sue each other) would like to sign Kovalchuk for the sole purpose of franchise value, as they would like to sell soon.

I'm don't think I buy this one.

EDIT: Oh, and no pun intended!

Edited January 14, 2010 by rage

[TheOwl 77]

If Kovelchuk leaves Atlanta, the franchise will go bankrupt. He's the type of player people would pay to see. What reason in the world would someone have to go to an Atlanta game without Kovy? None. The team isn't that great, the supporting cast of players aren't very exciting, and the goaltender is terrible. Even a hardcore hockey fan wouldn't pay to see a Thrashers game without Kovy. I mean seriously.

The only way this will work out is if it's a one for one deal. Kovy for another star player. Someone like Spezza, for example.

[eva unit zero 271]

If Kovelchuk leaves Atlanta, the franchise will go bankrupt. He's the type of player people would pay to see. What reason in the world would someone have to go to an Atlanta game without Kovy? None. The team isn't that great, the supporting cast of players aren't very exciting, and the goaltender is terrible. Even a hardcore hockey fan wouldn't pay to see a Thrashers game without Kovy. I mean seriously.

The only way this will work out is if it's a one for one deal. Kovy for another star player. Someone like Spezza, for example.

As I said in my suggestion, they trade Kovalchuk for two or three skilled young players to replace Kovalchuk. While you don't have the single-player out of your seat moments, you have more moments when the team makes you go 'wow!' and thusly more consistently excited fans. Not to mention, it leads to better depth and a better overall team. Think about Detroit fans in the 80s with Yzerman playing 25-30 minutes a night in his prime vs the 90s with Yzerman, Fedorov, Shanahan, Kozlov, Larionov, etc playing 17-18 minutes each but playing most of it together. When was the team more exciting to watch? One player doing everything on a team that struggled to win, or a bunch of skilled players consistently dominating? This one trade wouldn't be that, but it would be a step in the right direction. Plus, open cap space helps if the team is willing to use it.

[rage 24]

If Kovelchuk leaves Atlanta, the franchise will go bankrupt. He's the type of player people would pay to see. What reason in the world would someone have to go to an Atlanta game without Kovy? None. The team isn't that great, the supporting cast of players aren't very exciting, and the goaltender is terrible. Even a hardcore hockey fan wouldn't pay to see a Thrashers game without Kovy. I mean seriously.

The only way this will work out is if it's a one for one deal. Kovy for another star player. Someone like Spezza, for example.

No!! You can't be........

[rage 24]

As I said in my suggestion, they trade Kovalchuk for two or three skilled young players to replace Kovalchuk. While you don't have the single-player out of your seat moments, you have more moments when the team makes you go 'wow!' and thusly more consistently excited fans. Not to mention, it leads to better depth and a better overall team. Think about Detroit fans in the 80s with Yzerman playing 25-30 minutes a night in his prime vs the 90s with Yzerman, Fedorov, Shanahan, Kozlov, Larionov, etc playing 17-18 minutes each but playing most of it together. When was the team more exciting to watch? One player doing everything on a team that struggled to win, or a bunch of skilled players consistently dominating? This one trade wouldn't be that, but it would be a step in the right direction. Plus, open cap space helps if the team is willing to use it.

Okay, you are getting OUT OF CONTROL when you start to compare Yzerman, Shanny and Feds to anything a Kovalchuk trade could bring in!! I mean come on EVA!!! Even you w/ all your stats!! You should stop yourself at the CAP DOOR!!

Not to say Kovalchuk won't get a good return, but to compare the "Kovalchukless Thrashers to the 90 Red Wings is a little much!!" I see what you are getting at and where you want to go, but a lot of people won't. You need to pick a different comparison. Or use none and come up w/ a new one.

[edicius 3,269]

If Kovelchuk leaves Atlanta, the franchise will go bankrupt. He's the type of player people would pay to see. What reason in the world would someone have to go to an Atlanta game without Kovy? None. The team isn't that great, the supporting cast of players aren't very exciting, and the goaltender is terrible. Even a hardcore hockey fan wouldn't pay to see a Thrashers game without Kovy. I mean seriously.

The only way this will work out is if it's a one for one deal. Kovy for another star player. Someone like Spezza, for example.

Which means that Bettman is going to have to step in and make sure he stays in Atlanta.

[eva unit zero 271]

Okay, you are getting OUT OF CONTROL when you start to compare Yzerman, Shanny and Feds to anything a Kovalchuk trade could bring in!! I mean come on EVA!!! Even you w/ all your stats!! You should stop yourself at the CAP DOOR!!

Not to say Kovalchuk won't get a good return, but to compare the "Kovalchukless Thrashers to the 90 Red Wings is a little much!!" I see what you are getting at and where you want to go, but a lot of people won't. You need to pick a different comparison. Or use none and come up w/ a new one.

What is so wrong about suggesting that the Thrashers now get worse attendance as a losing team relying on one top star who played half the game than they would as a winning team which played many good players, none for ridiculous amounts of time?

The Thrashers making the deal I posted would get much better attendance down the road than they do now. For one, if the deal made them worse shot-term, they get a good shot at the top-end players in the next couple drafts, which should be good. If it makes them better, then they are a playoff team with solid forward depth. They would need to shore up the D and figure out whether a) Lehtonen is going to be 'the guy' they expect him to be able to be, and trade him off and replace him in net with a goalie who can be 'the guy' if they are to take that next step.