2017 Selke

[ChristopherReevesLegs 7,022]

Was listening to Greg Wyshynski discuss Selke candidates for the year. His top 3 were Kesler, Koivu, and Bergeron, but he also gave a lot of love to Zetterberg. He said Zetterberg has had a fantastic season defensively and the "underlying numbers" really show that. Can anyone who's into advanced stats confirm this?

Also said Kopitar and Toews have been awful (Sorry Frank)

[kickazz 5,459]

How many times has Zetterberg been snubbed of the Selke trophy? He should have won it in 07 and 08. Sadly I doubt his good defensive year is going to matter, the league won't give it to him over Bergeron or any of the younger guys. Plus Z's faceoff numbers are trending downward. If he can get it up, I'd say he has a decent chance.

Edited February 8, 2017 by kickazz

[kickazz 5,459]

1 hour ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

Was listening to Greg Wyshynski discuss Selke candidates for the year. His top 3 were Kesler, Koivu, and Bergeron, but he also gave a lot of love to Zetterberg. He said Zetterberg has had a fantastic season defensively and the "underlying numbers" really show that. Can anyone who's into advanced stats confirm this?

Also said Kopitar and Toews have been awful (Sorry Frank)

But anyways to answer your question, I don't think they use advanced stats to award the Selke trophy. They just use the faceoff% , takeaways, points scored and +/- stat I believe. And Z is doing well in all those except his faceoffs gone to his standard 51% - ish percent. If he can get it up to 53% I'd say he'd be competing for it. 

Zetterberg is on pace for having an all time best season in blocking shots (he's already at 21), all time best at Takeaways (he's got 29 his career best is 54), he leads the team as a +13, he's got one of the lowest PIMs in the league, and he's usually taking defensive zone faceoffs rather than offensive zone faceoffs which puts him at a slight disadvantage compared to other players, yet he still maintains good numbers. 

So I can see why Greg Wyshynski feels that way. I still don't think Zetterberg would be top 3 in Selke. But it does help that Kopitar, Toews are doing bad. Bergeron has been awful too actually. Kesler I can see winning. It seems like a weak year for Selke candidates. 

Edited February 8, 2017 by kickazz

[ChristopherReevesLegs 7,022]

9 minutes ago, kickazz said:

How many times has Zetterberg been snubbed of the Selke trophy? He should have won it in 07 and 08. Sadly I doubt his good defensive year is going to matter, the league won't give it to him over Bergeron or any of the younger guys. Plus Z's faceoff numbers are trending downward. If he can get it up, I'd say he has a decent chance.

I think Z would have gotten more recognition for the Selke had he not been on the same team as that Russian feller from the yotes for so many years.

Just now, kickazz said:

But anyways to answer your question, I don't think they use advanced stats to award the Selke trophy. They just use the faceoff% , takeaways, points scores and +/- stat I believe. And Z is doing well in all those except his faceoffs gone to his standard 51% - ish percent. If he can get it up to 53% I'd say he'd be competing for it. 

Yeah Wyshynski was definitely using his own numbers in his evaluation. Some type of advanced metric.

Doesn't the hockey writers association hand out ballots to their writers for the award? So theoretically couldn't writers vote based on whatever numbers they want?

[kickazz 5,459]

6 minutes ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

I think Z would have gotten more recognition for the Selke had he not been on the same team as that Russian feller from the yotes for so many years.

Right, plus Datsyuk is super flashy and the NHL loves flash. But I always felt Zetterberg was the better defensive forward at 1 on 1 face to face battles. Datsyuk was more of "I'll sneak up on you" type of guy which always blew peoples mind.

Plus Zetterberg was primarily a Left Winger those years, and a Winger hasn't won that award since 2003 when Lehtinen won it. They seem to love giving it to centers for that "Faceoff" stat. 

Edited February 8, 2017 by kickazz

[ChristopherReevesLegs 7,022]

2 minutes ago, kickazz said:

Right, plus Datsyuk is super flashy and the NHL loves flash. But I always felt Zetterberg was the better defensive forward at 1 on 1 face to face battles. Datsyuk was more of "I'll sneak up on you" type of guy which always blew peoples mind.

Plus Zetterberg was primarily a Left Winger, and a Winger hasn't won that award since 2003 when Lehtinen won it. 

That too.

Hossa as well should probably have a Selke under his belt but will probably never get one because he plays wing.

[kickazz 5,459]

^ Exactly, Hossa was an incredible defensive forward, he was a really good penalty killer in his prime as well. 

[frankgrimes 1,836]

2 hours ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

Was listening to Greg Wyshynski discuss Selke candidates for the year. His top 3 were Kesler, Koivu, and Bergeron, but he also gave a lot of love to Zetterberg. He said Zetterberg has had a fantastic season defensively and the "underlying numbers" really show that. Can anyone who's into advanced stats confirm this?

Also said Kopitar and Toews have been awful (Sorry Frank)

No need for sorry. I know that Toews doesn't have a good season by his standards and neither does Kopitar usually both are locks as Selke nominees.

As of right now I would give the Selke to Kesler  closely followed by Bergeron

[ChristopherReevesLegs 7,022]

18 minutes ago, frankgrimes said:

No need for sorry. I know that Toews doesn't have a good season by his standards and neither does Kopitar usually both are locks as Selke nominees.

As of right now I would give the Selke to Kesler  closely followed by Bergeron

Kesler has been real gud, but out of pure fandom id like to see Mikko get a selke. Hes usually in the mix but goes untalked about by most fans. I think hes been fantastic defensively for a very long time, just isnt a supestar name.

[kickazz 5,459]

30 minutes ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

Kesler has been real gud, but out of pure fandom id like to see Mikko get a selke. Hes usually in the mix but goes untalked about by most fans. I think hes been fantastic defensively for a very long time, just isnt a supestar name.

I'd want Z to get it before Mikko. But Koivu over Kesler. 

[kickazz 5,459]

2 hours ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

Yeah Wyshynski was definitely using his own numbers in his evaluation. Some type of advanced metric.

Doesn't the hockey writers association hand out ballots to their writers for the award? So theoretically couldn't writers vote based on whatever numbers they want?

They can and they usually vote based off of dumb biased s***. But I don't think they all understand the concept of advance metrics yet. I don't think anyone truly does. They had a metric called "Quality of Competition" back in the late 00s which just got completely discredited. Oddly enough Zetterberg was one of the highest in the league when it came to the hardest quality of competition faced. (Makes sense, he was always matched up against the opponents top centers)

 Advanced metrics is cool but it's still not solid yet. But as far as Corsi CF% and Fenwick, Z is doing just good, he's about 51% but his career average is 55%. The team's average is like 48% so he's still above that. One of the best on the team actually (1% behind Vanek, but Vanek also plays on a 3rd line and practically zero competition). Then again people have now said that over the course of the season, quality of competition evens out so it doesn't really mean anything. But I personally don't buy it. 

But Wyshynski is right as far as the advance metrics go, between Kesler, Koivu and Zetterberg all three start on the defensive zone more often than they do in the offensive zone, yet their Corsi (shots generated against the opposition) is still above 50%. Whereas Kopitar, Bergeron get more offensive zone starts (which might give them an advantage and buff their stats). I guess in english what this means is that Kesler, Koivu and Zetterberg are put in positions to defend more often and somehow turn it into their favor and cause more offense for the team; which is impressive. Bergeron and Kopitar are not put in the position to defend as often and at the same time do generate a lot of offense. To me the latter is less impressive than the former. But the caveat is that the offense Bergeron generates is far superior to everyone elses (his Corsi is almost 60% - which means the puck is being shot at the opponent 60% of the time when he's on ice and only 40% of the time against his goalie). Means the dude drives really good possession. 

But he's obviously not doing much with it. Sure he might be generating some shots, but his point tally is still s***ty. 29 points in 52 games Unlike Zetterberg, Kesler, Koivu who all have around 38-42 points in 52 games or whatever. . 

Someone else can probably explain this better than me (Kipwinger? Buppy?) but I think advance metrics are all cool but they need to translate into production too. In the case of Bergeron he's got great metrics but it hasn't translated into results. In the case of Kesler it has. 

Edited February 8, 2017 by kickazz

[kickazz 5,459]

These guys have some info too. Koivu doing real gud. 

http://www.hockeywilderness.com/2017/2/2/14469244/mikko-koivu-selke-trophy-win-nhl-awards-defensive-forward-ryan-kesler-patrice-bergeron-anze-kopitar

[ChristopherReevesLegs 7,022]

10 minutes ago, kickazz said:

They can and they usually vote based off of dumb biased s***. But I don't think they all understand the concept of advance metrics yet. I don't think anyone truly does. They had a metric called "Quality of Competition" back in the late 00s which just got completely discredited. Oddly enough Zetterberg was one of the highest in the league when it came to the hardest quality of competition faced. (Makes sense, he was always matched up against the opponents top centers)

 Advanced metrics is cool but it's still not solid yet. But as far as Corsi CF% and Fenwick, Z is doing just good, he's about 51% but his career average is 55%. The team's average is like 48% so he's still above that. One of the best on the team actually (1% behind Vanek, but Vanek also plays on a 3rd line and practically zero competition). Then again people have now said that over the course of the season, quality of competition evens out so it doesn't really mean anything. But I personally don't buy it. 

But Wyshynski is right as far as the advance metrics go, between Kesler, Koivu and Zetterberg all three start on the defensive zone more often than they do in the offensive zone, yet their Corsi (shots generated against the opposition) is still above 50%. Whereas Kopitar, Bergeron get more offensive zone starts (which might give them an advantage and buff their stats). I guess in english what this means is that Kesler, Koivu and Zetterberg are put in positions to defend more often and somehow turn it into their favor and cause more offense for the team; which is impressive. Bergeron and Kopitar are not put in the position to defend as often and at the same time do generate a lot of offense. To me the latter is less impressive than the former. But the caveat is that the offense Bergeron generates is far superior to everyone elses (his Corsi is almost 60% - which means the puck is being shot at the opponent 60% of the time when he's on ice and only 40% of the time against his goalie). Means the dude drives really good possession. 

But he's obviously not doing much with it. Sure he might be generating some shots, but his point tally is still s***ty. 29 points in 52 games Unlike Zetterberg, Kesler, Koivu who all have around 38-42 points in 52 games or whatever. . 

 

Pretty sure one of them voted for Beauchemin for the Norris last year

Now I remember why I stopped keeping up with advanced stats lol. Appreciate the long post though.