Esquire 324 Report post Posted May 28, 2009 http://www.whatifsports.com/beyondtheboxsc...icle=2009NHLSCF Results of 10,000 simulations of the Red Wings and Penguins By Paul Bessire, WhatIfSports.com May 27th, 2009 Detroit will be celebrating a Stanley Cup victory over Pittsburgh for the second straight season. In 10,000 simulations of the Stanley Cup Finals between the Red Wings and Penguins the defending champs come out on top 53.2% of the time, with the most common occurrence a seven game series. Though Hockeytown USA will cheer the loudest, all hockey fans will win with an entertaining, competitive and dramatic series. This series is closer than last season when we predicted a Detroit win in five and the team won in six (in every instance but one, we were within one goal of each team's actual score for the first five games). As is evident below, we had to make some assumptions regarding playoff rosters and the health of all players, particularly Detroit stars Nicklas Lidstrom and Pavel Datsyuk. Both play in the simulated series. With the (recently announced) quick turnaround before the Stanley Cup starts Saturday, this may not be the case. If either player were to miss multiple games, this would be enough to swing the series in Pittsburgh's favor. What follows is an example Stanley Cup Finals based on the most common result of those simulations. We have included boxscores, play-by-play and stats for each game in the series. Click on the links after each summary to see the entire breakdown of the game. Stanley Cup Finals Game 1 Pittsburgh 4 @ Detroit 6 - A fast-paced, exciting game that includes ten total goals, opens the Stanley Cup Finals and puts the Red Wings on the board first at home. Detroit's Marian Hossa, who last year skated with Pittsburgh in the Stanley Cup Finals, leads the way as the only player to score more than once. Hossa, a healthy Pavel Datsyuk and young defenseman Jonathan Ericsson are the game's three stars. Stanley Cup Finals Game 2 Pittsburgh 1 @ Detroit 5 - Detroit's offensive dominance in Joe Louis Arena continues with three new stars and its defense shining brightly. Goalie Chris Osgood, who has certainly been here before, and forwards Valterri Filppula and Jiri Hudler earn honors in Game 2. Filppula scores once and assists on goals by Hudler and Johan Franzen. The lone Penguins' goal is scored by Evgeni Malkin early in the third period. Down 5-0 at the time, it's already too late. Stanley Cup Finals Game 3 Detroit 2 @ Pittsburgh 4 - The Penguins get a crucial win in Game 3 at home. This time, Pittsburgh puts together the scoring streak. After no scoring in the first period, the Penguins get goals from Sergei Gonchar, Ruslan Fedotenko, Rob Scuderi and Sidney Crosby - three of which are assisted by Evgeni Malkin - to go up 4-0 midway through the third period. Malkin, Crosby and Detroit's Jiri Hudler are the three stars for Game 3. Stanley Cup Finals Game 4 Detroit 3 @ Pittsburgh 2 - A back-and-forth game results in a one-goal victory by the defending champion Red Wings, putting Detroit up 3-1 in the series with a pivitol win on the road. The Red Wings get an impressive 40 shots on goal to the Penguins' 24 shots. Pittsburgh goalie Marc-Andre Fleury stops 37 of those Red Wings' shots, but it's not enough. Two late shots by Evgeni Malkin are stopped by Chris Osgood to seal the victory for the road team. Three new players, Detroit defensemen Niklas Kronwall and Brad Stuart and Fleury, despite his team's loss, earn the three stars of the game. Interestingly, through four games, 11 different players have been mentioned among the stars of the game; only Jiri Hudler has been included twice. Stanley Cup Finals Game 5 Pittsburgh 5 @ Detroit 3 - In what has been a series of runs and momentum, Pittsburgh steals a road victory back from Detroit, with five goals in the first 16 minutes of Game 5. Sidney Crosby, who already has one hat trick in these playoffs, gets another before the second period even starts. Defenseman Sergei Gonchar actually opens the scoring for the game with a goal just 13 seconds after the initial faceoff, assisted by Crosby. Sid the Kid's breakout game - one that every hockey fan was waiting for - nets him the top star of the game honors. Gonchar and wing Chris Kunitz, who assists each of Crosby's goals, join him as stars. Joe Louis Arena has never been so quiet. Stanley Cup Finals Game 6 Detroit 2 @ Pittsburgh 3 - Once again facing elimination, the Pengins manage to score early Pittsburgh wins back-to-back games to force a seventh game in the Stanley Cup Finals. Pittsburgh gets second period goals from role players Chris Kunitz, Ruslan Fedotenko and Max Talbot to go up 3-0 and never look back. Marc-Andre Fleury stops 26 of 28 Red Wings' shots in the win. And none of those players are in the top three stars. Game 6 honorees include Evgeni Malkin with two assists and five faceoff wins, Detroit defenseman Brian Rafalski, also with two assists, and Valtteri Filppula, who scores one of Detroit's two goals. The series heads back to Detroit with everything on the line. Stanley Cup Finals Game 7 Pittsburgh 3 @ Detroit 4 - The decisive game ends with the more well-rounded team skating with Stanley Cup Trophy on its home ice as Detroit's Marian Hossa's goal with 5:34 remaining provides the insurance that the Red Wings need to win the game and repeat as champs. Early game jitters keep the game scoreless until almost halfway through the second period, but then the pace and intensity pick up furiously. The Penguins lead 1-0 after a Chris Kunitz goal at the 10:47 mark in the second period. Detroit immediately answers with goals from Hossa and Henrik Zetterberg, who had been very quiet in the series up to this point. A powerplay due to a Johan Franzen cross check penalty gives the Penguins a chance to capitalize and Evengi Malkin does just that with an early third period goal that ties the game. With 8:08 remaining and the game tied, Valtteri Filppula takes a pass from Mikael Samuelsson and sneaks it by Marc-Andre Fleury for the Game 7 lead. Hossa adds the goal a couple minutes later and the team needs it when Malkin scores just a few seconds after that. Chris Osgood holds off Malkin, Crosby and the last minute flurry of shots to win the game and the cup. Hossa, Malkin and Detroit's Pavel Datsyuk are the three stars for the deciding game. Summary The Detroit Red Wings win the 2009 Stanley Cup Finals in seven games. Marian Hossa, who skated on Pittsburgh's first scoring line in last season's Stanley Cup Finals against Detroit, now leads the Red Wings to victory and earns the Conn Smythe Trophy, given to the NHL's Playoff MVP, for his efforts. In total, Hossa scores 11 goals, including two in the deciding game, and has nine assists with a +/- rating of +14 in Detroit's 23 games. Other Red Wing standouts from the seven-game series include Jiri Hudler, Valtteri Filppula, Pavel Datsyuk and Niklas Kronwall, each with seven points. Goalie Chris Osgood plays every minute and saves 87.8% of Pittsburgh's shots. The Penguins are led by their superstars Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, who both score ten points. Marc-Andre Fleur actually outperforms his counterpart with an 89.45% save percentage. Clearly, depth is the key to Detroit's victory. Few teams in NHL history can match Crosby and Malkin, but it's Detroit's third and fourth lines and defensemen who make the difference. The win marks the twelfth Stanley Cup for the Red Wings, their fifth since 1996. Depth. Wins. Cup. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
flip 5 Report post Posted May 28, 2009 We're screwed. The simulation had Kopecky playing. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Drake_Marcus 890 Report post Posted May 29, 2009 Well last year's simulation was remarkably correct- even predicting Samuelsson's goal scoring outbursts in games 1 and 2. Hopefully they're correct about the result except the Wings win it in 6 games. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rocket Queen 30 1 Report post Posted May 29, 2009 a simulator? Okay... I'll take the real thing... GO WINGS!!! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
greenrebellion 415 Report post Posted May 29, 2009 Did the sim have Dats out and Nick playing at 80%? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kuj0 0 Report post Posted May 29, 2009 (edited) yes listen to the all mighty computer simulations http://www.whatifsports.com/beyondtheboxsc...ticle=2009NHLBP oh wait, before the playoffs started they gave detroit a 1.3% chance of winning the cup (69.9% chance of winning first round compared to SJS had an 88.2% chance of winning) pittsburg had between 0.4% and 0.9% chance so lets just say their probability model might be a little off Edited May 29, 2009 by kuj0 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Esquire 324 Report post Posted May 29, 2009 yes listen to the all mighty computer simulations http://www.whatifsports.com/beyondtheboxsc...ticle=2009NHLBP oh wait, before the playoffs started they gave detroit a 1.3% chance of winning the cup (69.9% chance of winning first round compared to SJS had an 88.2% chance of winning) pittsburg had between 0.4% and 0.9% chance so lets just say their probability model might be a little off You don't say?! I guess that's why it's a simulation generator and not a FACT generator. I'll have to start posting disclaimers on future posts I think. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Drake_Marcus 890 Report post Posted May 29, 2009 You don't say?! I guess that's why it's a simulation generator and not a FACT generator. I'll have to start posting disclaimers on future posts I think. Oh snap! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Firehawk 305 Report post Posted May 29, 2009 If the wings go up 3-1 they aren't going to lose game 5 here again...sorry . It's time to win a cup on home ice this year! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
wmubronco420 25 Report post Posted May 29, 2009 so ozzie lets in 5 goals in the 1st period and doesnt get pulled. what was babcock thinking? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mike 0 Report post Posted May 29, 2009 If the wings go up 3-1 they aren't going to lose game 5 here again...sorry . It's time to win a cup on home ice this year! 1997 was at home, 1998 was on the road, 2002 was at home and 2008 was on the road. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
thegerkin 189 Report post Posted May 29, 2009 You don't say?! I guess that's why it's a simulation generator and not a FACT generator. I'll have to start posting disclaimers on future posts I think. Nice Propagandhi lyrics Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Konnan511 1,736 Report post Posted May 29, 2009 Oh snap! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
David 2 Report post Posted May 29, 2009 10,000 simulations? I thought I had a lot of free time on my hands. I must now re-assess my ability to waste time. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Esquire 324 Report post Posted May 29, 2009 Nice Propagandhi lyrics I stopped trying to write the perfect song after I heard "Dear Coaches Corner" on the new album. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
thegerkin 189 Report post Posted May 29, 2009 I stopped trying to write the perfect song after I heard "Dear Coaches Corner" on the new album. heh, it's a great song. I've been listening to them forever (since 1994, yes I'm old). You may also like "Resisting Tyrannical Government" off of the old Less Talk, More Rock record. "But I don't want to catalyze or synthesize the second Final Solution. I don't want to be the Steve Smith of the Revolution. Do you see the analogy? We're the Oilers. The World Bank- the Flames! And just 2 minutes remain in the 7th game of the best of 7 series! Yeah, Jesus saves! Gretzky scores! The workers slave. The rich get more. One wrong move and we risk the cup. So play The Man, not the puck." Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Esquire 324 Report post Posted May 29, 2009 heh, it's a great song. I've been listening to them forever (since 1994, yes I'm old). You may also like "Resisting Tyrannical Government" off of the old Less Talk, More Rock record. "But I don't want to catalyze or synthesize the second Final Solution. I don't want to be the Steve Smith of the Revolution. Do you see the analogy? We're the Oilers. The World Bank- the Flames! And just 2 minutes remain in the 7th game of the best of 7 series! Yeah, Jesus saves! Gretzky scores! The workers slave. The rich get more. One wrong move and we risk the cup. So play The Man, not the puck." Prop is one of my favorite bands of all time. I own all their stuff, doubles of some, and at the last show they played here in Toronto my friend got a drum stick from Jord. Any band that incorporates progressive thrash with hockey lyrics is pure win. Been a fan since high school (95-00). Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
thegerkin 189 Report post Posted May 29, 2009 Prop is one of my favorite bands of all time. I own all their stuff, doubles of some, and at the last show they played here in Toronto my friend got a drum stick from Jord. Any band that incorporates progressive thrash with hockey lyrics is pure win. Been a fan since high school (95-00). Awesome, I'm seeing them in Detroit in a few weeks with Strike Anywhere. Can't wait. Same here, owning all their stuff, I even have a test press of their 10" split with I SPY and 1 of 50 clear orange pressing of "How To Clean Everything" Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TheUkrainian 49 Report post Posted May 29, 2009 I really hope Hossa turns into a machine against Pittsburgh...that would be so amazing. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jake Ryan 1 Report post Posted May 29, 2009 Is this speculation, or did the Wings and Penquins actually play 10,000 7 game series? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Esquire 324 Report post Posted May 29, 2009 Is this speculation, or did the Wings and Penquins actually play 10,000 7 game series? I think you misread it. They actually played 7 series of 10,000 games. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Vincanni 1 Report post Posted May 30, 2009 Give Ozzie his proper numbers, not his early regular season stats and you could easily tack on an additional 15% to our winning percentage. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
batman009 0 Report post Posted June 6, 2009 interesting.. im going to check this one out.. thanks a lot assurance vie Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
