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stevkrause

Kovalchuk will not be a Red Wing

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This thread has taken an odd turn... first off, all of you Filppula haters need to just shut the f up already - look at his point per game ratio and his production in the playoffs, not to mention how defensively responsible he is and the fact that he STILL hasn't peaked... as I've said before, he WILL be a 70 pt scorer in this league, especially as soon as he is skating with a bonafide sniper night in and night out.

On any note, anyone who would suggest that Kovalchuk would make any team worse is a flat out moron, no ifs, ands, or buts about it... now, the suggestions of the depth we would lose/defensive weakness(in the event Lidstrom hung them up) would make us worse, is very legit, this is a salary cap world and you cannot have most of your cap tied up in 2 lines...

With ALL of that said, in some crazy parallel universe, when Holland has pictures of everyone involved and could convince Kovalchuk to come here at WAY less than he would make anywhere else, would DEFINITELY improve our team and make us an instant favorite, but that can ONLY be done without losing any of our current pieces and all of these variables, I do not see happening, which is why I do not see Kovalchuk here...

Lidstrom for life likes this

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There is no way Ilya Kovalchuk being added to any team in the world makes that team worse. So let's get that out of the way. Now if you have to give up 5 players to get him, then maybe there is an argument there depending on who they are and how they're replaced. Next years salary cap will be increasing, but no one knows what the exact number will be, so it's all speculative as to what Kenny will have to work with. I am in agreement with those that think we need to upgrade our Top 6. Kovalchuk is obviously the best player out there, and would be a perfect winger for Datsyuk. There are other players out there that would be nice as well via free agency and certainly some in trades that we do not know about. The fact is, if Datsyuk and Zetterberg are going to center there own lines we need another goal-scoring winger. Franzen and Zetterberg are the best fit together (I know Franzen puts up numbers with Datsyuk, but everyone does), so that leaves finding a winger for Pavel. Filppula is not a goal-scoring winger. Nor is Bertuzzi or Holmstrom or Cleary. Hudler has the potential to score more than his career high of 23, but he has shown in the past that his production significantly decreases when in a top-6 role, and defensively he is a huge liability in the playoffs against another teams top line. Imagine him out there against Toews/Kane or Thornton/Heatley/Marleau. The bottom six does not need an upgrade at all. Eaves has scored 20 goals before and showed the capability to get near that this year. Helm can pot 10-15 goals as can Miller. I also believe Abdelkader is a 10-15 goal scorer over a full season. Ritola has a lot of skill and doesn't get any credit because he hasn't had much of an opportunity yet. He is very responsible defensively and will play grinding hockey and can chip in 10 goals. Draper is likely to be the odd man out this year. The last spot in the bottom six will likely be filled by Holmstrom/Cleary, probably on a rotating basis depending on who's going. That adds a 20 goal scorer to the mix. I would say the bottom six is definitely fine, as far as being defensively responsible, physical, and contributing goals. Datsyuk, Zetterberg and Franzen are locks up front. I would package one of our 3 million dollar forwards for a young defenseman that has top-4 potential, as Lidstrom and Rafalski are nearing the end. Cleary has a NTC and his value is mediocre after this season. That leaves Filppula and Hudler. Filppula has more value but no way I trade him over Hudler. See ya later Happy. That sets the forwards as this:

FreeAgent-Datsyuk(6.7)-Homer(1.75?)

Franzen(3.95)-Zetterberg(6.08)-Filppula(3)

Eaves(.850?)-Helm(.900?)-Cleary(2.8)

Ritola(.650?)-Abdelkader(.800?)-Miller(.800?)

Draper(1.583)

The defense is obviously mostly set with the following:

Lidstrom(TBD)-Rafalski(6)

Kronwall(3)-Stuart(3.75)

Ericsson(.900)-Kindl(.883)

Acquisition(1.25)

The last defensive spot would go to the young defenseman acquired via trade for Hudler, Meech and a pick or prospect. That package should land a young defenseman that has the potential to develop into a top 4 guy, likely on his cheap first contract. I'll say they make 1.25 million for arguments sake, as if this did not happen we could just re-sign Lilja at face value.

Goalies are obviously set:

Howard (.717)

Osgood(1.417)

This is a team that looks familiar to last year with a bit more youth infused to it, and hopefully being healthy. Let's guess the cap will be 58.5 million (as it's rumored between 58-59 million). With this roster that leaves 10.7 million for Lidstrom and 1 forward. Obviously the question becomes what does Lidstrom want to do for the team. If speculation is correct he wants $5 or $6 million and that leaves us with $4.7-$5.7 million. Now with that you could certainly keep Hudler and re-sign Bertuzzi and carry 14 forwards, but the same questions would remain from this year. I would rather get a higher-end forward with that money. If Lidstrom was willing to take $3.5 million for the betterment of one last cup run then you've got $7.2 million to work with. This is the scenario that many Wings fans are hoping for when they suggest Kovalchuk. It's not unrealistic to think he would sign a 12-13 yr deal at 6.75-7 million and be the highest paid player on the team. As far as his worth, he just turned 27 yrs old (one yr older than Filppula and Hudler), and has averaged 44 goals and 40 assists over the past 7 seasons on a bad team. He would absolutley provide 45 goals+ a year, that can be banked, and improve our Top 6 and power play. This is the dream of many out there. It would take a few variables, but variables that could easily happen (trade Hudler, Lidstrom discount, Kovy taking 6.75-7). Kovy is a very determined player, a phenomenal skater, a very good passer, and has a lethal shot. He is far better defensively than given credit for (shown by his time in NJ), a beast in size (6'2", 230lbs) and will even drop the gloves. Now maybe its just me but I'd rather at least attempt to get him than just concede to having Hudler and Bertuzzi.

And all of this talk about depth, I leave you with some statistics from a week ago - the San Jose Sharks beat us in five games with a goalie that performed no better than ours in the series. Their defense does not compare to ours, and their defense scored all of ZERO goals in the series. Their bottom six, or depth if you will, contributed ONE GOAL all series. Their top six scored 14 of 15 goals in the series. Essentially they beat us by their top six outplaying ours, and their powerplay outperforming ours. That is a common thread around the playoffs if you look. Montreal, Philly and Boston also have no scoring depth. Pittsburgh has no real scoring depth either. The only team that can boast 3 legitimate scoring lines is Chicago, and they won't have that next year. If you can get one 20 goal scorer(possibly two) and a bunch of 10-15 goal scorers in your bottom six, along with a loaded top 6, you are better than every team in the league.

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Holy christ! People want to throw a 12-13 year deal to Kovalchuk!?!??? This forum has gone mad! Glad Holland is the GM and not LGW posters! Shew!

On any note, anyone who would suggest that Kovalchuk would make any team worse is a flat out moron, no ifs, ands, or buts about it... now, the suggestions of the depth we would lose/defensive weakness(in the event Lidstrom hung them up) would make us worse, is very legit, this is a salary cap world and you cannot have most of your cap tied up in 2 lines...

Kovalchuk would essentially make this team worse. As you stated, this is a salary cap world. It makes no sense to blow all the salary on two lines and hope to hell Holland finds a bunch of 'Cleary' stories for $.500 to fill the bottom 6. Ain't gonna happen.

Oh, and I agree, Filppula and Hudler aren't going anywhere. Holland has way too much time invested in Hudler. He calls him on holidays just to check in on him for piss sakes.

There is no way Ilya Kovalchuk being added to any team in the world makes that team worse. So let's get that out of the way. Now if you have to give up 5 players to get him, then maybe there is an argument there depending on who they are and how they're replaced.

Holland could have re-signed Hossa for just over $5.5 million by trading Filppula, not signing Bertuzzi, Williams and Brad May (plus Lilja was out injured). He could have signed a couple of UFA for league minimum and had Hossa locked up for life.... what makes you think he's going to throw Kovalchuk a 12-13 year deal? It's not gonna happen folks.

And yes, blowing your entire cap on two lines does make this team worse. Kovalchuk would make this team worse unless he signs for $3 million or less. If Holland can land Kovalchuck for a $3 million dollar deal, I say go for it. But not at $6 million+ 12-13 years. Yikes!

Can you imagine this forum in 8-10 years bitching because Holland was stupid to sign a bunch of players to long-term deals that went past their prime and are ridiculously overpaid for what they bring to the table. Detroit Red Wings will be the laughing stock in the NHL, and Holland would be named "the worse GM in the history of sports".

Have fun in the KHL, Kovalchuk! :)

kook_10 likes this

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Holy christ! People want to throw a 12-13 year deal to Kovalchuk!?!??? This forum has gone mad! Glad Holland is the GM and not LGW posters! Shew!

Kovalchuk would essentially make this team worse. As you stated, this is a salary cap world. It makes no sense to blow all the salary on two lines and hope to hell Holland finds a bunch of 'Cleary' stories for $.500 to fill the bottom 6. Ain't gonna happen.

Oh, and I agree, Filppula and Hudler aren't going anywhere. Holland has way too much time invested in Hudler. He calls him on holidays just to check in on him for piss sakes.

Holland could have re-signed Hossa for just over $5.5 million by trading Filppula, not signing Bertuzzi, Williams and Brad May (plus Lilja was out injured). He could have signed a couple of UFA for league minimum and had Hossa locked up for life.... what makes you think he's going to throw Kovalchuk a 12-13 year deal? It's not gonna happen folks.

And yes, blowing your entire cap on two lines does make this team worse. Kovalchuk would make this team worse unless he signs for $3 million or less. If Holland can land Kovalchuck for a $3 million dollar deal, I say go for it. But not at $6 million+ 12-13 years. Yikes!

Can you imagine this forum in 8-10 years bitching because Holland was stupid to sign a bunch of players to long-term deals that went past their prime and are ridiculously overpaid for what they bring to the table. Detroit Red Wings will be the laughing stock in the NHL, and Holland would be named "the worse GM in the history of sports".

Have fun in the KHL, Kovalchuk! :)

i sure can imagine it! rafalski, anyone? (don't tell me you haven't seen those comments!)

the facts are, we're not getting anyone new for the top 6. we're getting captain and holmer, hudler and a couple returnees. we might get a bottom 6 forward, we might not. any action this team sees as far as roster shakeups happens at the trade deadline. all of you know it, too...

would i like kovalchuk to wear a winged wheel? sure! will it happen? i'll sum it up for you sweetly...kenny is GM, and we're in a cap era....so good luck!

(clarification: thats my way of saying kenny knows best, even in this cap era. no more long-term contracts are available, as we not only have to look at this year, but the next and a few after as well. why do you think capgeek shows all salaries until like 2021??)

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With the cap @ 58.5 million

FORWARDS

Ilya Kovalchuk ($6.000m) / Pavel Datsyuk ($6.700m) / Tomas Holmstrom ($1.500m)

Valtteri Filppula ($3.000m) / Henrik Zetterberg ($6.083m) / Johan Franzen ($3.955m)

Daniel Cleary ($2.800m) / Darren Helm ($0.850m) / Kris Draper ($1.583m)

Justin Abdelkader ($0.850m) / Drew Miller ($0.650m) / Patrick Eaves ($0.650m)

Mattias Ritola ($0.511m)

DEFENSEMEN

Brian Rafalski ($6.000m) / Nicklas Lidstrom ($4.000m)

Brad Stuart ($3.750m) / Niklas Kronwall ($3.000m)

Andreas Lilja ($1.000m) / Jonathan Ericsson ($0.900m)

Jakub Kindl ($0.883m)

GOALTENDERS

Chris Osgood ($1.417m) / Jimmy Howard ($0.717m)

CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS

ROSTER: 22; PAYROLL: $56.799m; CAP ROOM: $1.701m BONUSES: $0.000m

Kovalchuk contract = 10 9 8 7 7 6 5 3 3 2 = 60 MIL @ 10 YRS

Miller, Eaves, etc has stated they want to play / stay here. I'm going under the assumption they will play for a less money. Plus I can't imagine giving Helm, Eaves, Miller, Abdlekader, etc a million dollars or more, at least not at this point.

I'm not one for Lidstrom getting around $6 million. After 19 glorious, can't be appreciated enough seasons, he shouldn't be looking for that big of a contract. He's seen people take hometown discounts for the betterment of the team, it's time he should. Don't get me wrong, he's earned and deserves whatever he asks for, no question. He's still one of the best, arguably the best, positional defenseman in the game. But his points are dipping just as fast as his age. Part of that $7.45 million he was getting was for 70-80 point seasons on top of his normal defensive self. I think $4 million would be a perfect number for him. Anything more I say go after Anton Volchenkov.

And finally, the odds are better Kovy will be a Red Wing than Flip getting 70 points, to whomever said that. If Flip has the ability to get 70 Hudler has the ability to get 95.

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If you get Kovalchuk, that's what Holland will need; a bunch of $.500 - $.600k players to fill holes. (goodbye depth)

Holland isn't interested in signing another long-term deal. He could of had Hossa and Franzen by moving some players last year. Especially at the cap hit Hossa took in Chicago.

Holland is looking for support guys. - Source

Using Hossa two years ago doesn't help your argument. Do you remember the circumstances how we got Hossa? Do you remember Zetterberg and Franzen's salary that year? Like I said before, Holland told mlive that whoever signs first (between Hossa and Franzen) gets to stay in Detroit. Franzen took the deal, Hossa did not. Holland could have found a way to re-sign Hossa at the cap hit he took in Chicago by moving some players/salary, but Holland wasn't giving out anymore long-term contracts after Franzen got his deal.

...

Do.Not.Want.Kovalchuk!

What Holland is looking for and his interest in another long-term deal is irrelevent to the discussion of whether or not Kovy would make the team better. It only effects the likelihood of Kovy coming here. On that I agree, the chance is pretty much zero. Something big would have to happen before July 1st to change Kenny's mind, and it probably won't. Gives you something to clamor on about, but it still isn't relevent.

And my point on Hossa is that if you have a chance to improve something, you do it. You seem to be suggesting that Kenny isn't looking to improve the top 6 because we don't need anything. The reality is that the only reason he isn't looking is because he doesn't believe we can do anything there...at least nothing that he would be willing to do.

Kovalchuk would essentially make this team worse. As you stated, this is a salary cap world. It makes no sense to blow all the salary on two lines and hope to hell Holland finds a bunch of 'Cleary' stories for $.500 to fill the bottom 6. Ain't gonna happen.

...

And yes, blowing your entire cap on two lines does make this team worse. Kovalchuk would make this team worse unless he signs for $3 million or less. If Holland can land Kovalchuck for a $3 million dollar deal, I say go for it. But not at $6 million+ 12-13 years. Yikes!

Can you imagine this forum in 8-10 years bitching because Holland was stupid to sign a bunch of players to long-term deals that went past their prime and are ridiculously overpaid for what they bring to the table. Detroit Red Wings will be the laughing stock in the NHL, and Holland would be named "the worse GM in the history of sports".

You can keep repeating this 'fill the bottom 6 with worthless scrubs' nonsense all you want, it doesn't make it true. Maybe Kovy would want $9 mil long term, and if so then it doesn't happen. But you have no idea what Kovy wants. If he wants to play for a good team, he'll have to take a reasonable cap hit. Maybe he could get a lot from a team like Colorado or LA that might be on the verge, but I doubt even that would happen. Not after the deals for Hossa, Franzen, Hank, and the Sedins (even though they aren't long-term). Again, it isn't really relevent to whether or not he would make the team better. That's like saying he would make the team worse by demanding the sacrifice of one roster player as part of his pre-game ritual. I could just as easily argue that Lidstrom will make the team worse because he will demand $10 mil and force the team to waive Datsyuk and Zetterberg. Suggesting that Kovy will make unreasonable demands doesn't make it true, nor does it mean I or anyone else was suggesting the team accept such demands. Obviously you don't sign a player at any cost.

We have to start with a reasonable foundation. And Nick @ $5 mil, Kovy @ $6 mil IS reasonable. A modest cap raise IS reasonable. This IS reasonable:

FORWARDS

Pavel Datsyuk ($6.700m) / Henrik Zetterberg ($6.083m) / * Ilya Kovalchuk ($6.000m)

Johan Franzen ($3.955m) / Daniel Cleary ($2.800m) / Kris Draper ($1.583m)

* Tomas Holmstrom ($1.500m) / * Darren Helm ($1.200m) / * Justin Abdelkader ($1.200m)

* Drew Miller ($0.900m) / * Patrick Eaves ($0.900m) / * Mattias Ritola ($0.650m)

DEFENSEMEN

Brian Rafalski ($6.000m) / * Nicklas Lidstrom ($5.000m)

Brad Stuart ($3.750m) / Niklas Kronwall ($3.000m)

* Andreas Lilja ($1.250m) / Jonathan Ericsson ($0.900m)

Jakub Kindl ($0.883m)

GOALTENDERS

Chris Osgood ($1.417m) / Jimmy Howard ($0.717m)

CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS

ROSTER: 21; PAYROLL: $56.388m; CAP ROOM: $1.312m BONUSES: $0.000m

Not one salary in that list is completely out of line. Even all of them together is not that big a stretch. It leaves you $1.3 mil to sign a 13th forward. That's enough to get a decent third liner, probably even one that could step into the top 6 in a pinch. And that roster is quite simply BETTER than it would be with Flip and Happy in place of Kovy and Miller/Eaves. The top 6 is far better, and bottom 6 is still more than capable of contributing both defensively and on the PK AND a fair amount of secondary scoring.

Would it be better long term? Who knows. You'd have to know what's going to happen with both Kovy and the Cap/CBA. It's a risk for sure. But I'd be willing to take it. Frankly there's risk in everything we do or don't do. Maybe in 6 years when Nick and Rafi are gone, Pav and Hank aging, etc, the team will go to s*** no matter what we do. If we're going to be bad for a few years, what difference does it make it we're bad with Kovy surrounded by scrubs or bad with a bunch of mediocre tweeners? Again, I don't blame anyone if they don't want to take the risk, but you can't definitely say it would be a bad move. You don't know. No one does. Your slippery slopes and portents of doom aside.

Would it be better than holding some money in reserve for the trade deadline? Or using some of the space to upgrade the defense? Or even goaltending? Or some other, cheaper top 6 forward that would allow us to keep either Filppula or Hudler? All that's debatable, and I wouldn't hate any of those decisions.

But if we come back next year with essentially the same team as this year, just Hudler replacing Willy and a couple largely inconsequential moves on the 4th line, Kindl, Meech, and Ericsson making up our bottom pair on defense, and no cap space for deadline acquisitions...well, I'll be disappointed, and I'd bet most fans would be too by season's end.

Now if you want to argue that he's not enough of an improvement to justify the risk, then fine. Can't really debate that since neither of us knows the future. Difference of opinion, moving on. Same if you just want to say it will never happen. Can't debate it. I don't think it will either. I just hope it does.

But if you want to say that Filppula, Hudler, and Bert would be better than Kovy, Miller, and whomever we could get for $1.3 mil (maybe even Bert, but I'd hope not), well... bring it on. But please put your silly 'bottom 6 full of scrubs' argument to bed.

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If you believed that something like this would come to pass, I have 20 acres of swamp in downtown Detroit to sell you - cheap.

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Buppy your out of your mind, you would give up huds and flip for kovalchuk, and a 3rd player? Dude on paper datsyuk and kovalchuk look amazing but if you don't have a deep team than forget him.

Giving up that many key players for 1 amazing player goes against what detroit has been doing the last two decades. There was many times where we could have dumped some role players to acquire a great one, but we dont do that because you need all 4 lines rolling.

An example is this year, our 4 lines weren't as solid as they have been in the past decade.

Another example is SAN JOSE, yes the sharks. They have always had two great top 6 lines but the bottom two were horrible. They go and bring in malholtra, heatly, and nichol without giving away anyone key. But for us we can not do that. We can't get kovy without giving away someone big.

If i could get kovy without losing much bring him in, but if not screw him.

Maybe we can try and bring in a gritty fourth liner and maybe get raffi torres, if not raffi resign bertuzzi since raffi does what bertuzzi does with more speed and grit, and his back isnt screwed up.

An example off the top of my head:

flipula-zetterberg-franzen

hudler-datsyuk-holmer

helm-flipula-miller(maybe replaced for a 4th line specialist, moving eaves to 3rd line)

abdelkader-draper-eaves

Ritola

Lidstrom-rafalski

Stuart-Kronwall

Ericson- Lilja

G-Howard

Backup-Osgood

Also it is a must to get osgood to play needs to play at least 30-35 games in the season so hes fresh and howards fresh, also this way osgood is ready for playoffs just incase.

What Holland is looking for and his interest in another long-term deal is irrelevent to the discussion of whether or not Kovy would make the team better. It only effects the likelihood of Kovy coming here. On that I agree, the chance is pretty much zero. Something big would have to happen before July 1st to change Kenny's mind, and it probably won't. Gives you something to clamor on about, but it still isn't relevent.

And my point on Hossa is that if you have a chance to improve something, you do it. You seem to be suggesting that Kenny isn't looking to improve the top 6 because we don't need anything. The reality is that the only reason he isn't looking is because he doesn't believe we can do anything there...at least nothing that he would be willing to do.

You can keep repeating this 'fill the bottom 6 with worthless scrubs' nonsense all you want, it doesn't make it true. Maybe Kovy would want $9 mil long term, and if so then it doesn't happen. But you have no idea what Kovy wants. If he wants to play for a good team, he'll have to take a reasonable cap hit. Maybe he could get a lot from a team like Colorado or LA that might be on the verge, but I doubt even that would happen. Not after the deals for Hossa, Franzen, Hank, and the Sedins (even though they aren't long-term). Again, it isn't really relevent to whether or not he would make the team better. That's like saying he would make the team worse by demanding the sacrifice of one roster player as part of his pre-game ritual. I could just as easily argue that Lidstrom will make the team worse because he will demand $10 mil and force the team to waive Datsyuk and Zetterberg. Suggesting that Kovy will make unreasonable demands doesn't make it true, nor does it mean I or anyone else was suggesting the team accept such demands. Obviously you don't sign a player at any cost.

We have to start with a reasonable foundation. And Nick @ $5 mil, Kovy @ $6 mil IS reasonable. A modest cap raise IS reasonable. This IS reasonable:

FORWARDS

Pavel Datsyuk ($6.700m) / Henrik Zetterberg ($6.083m) / * Ilya Kovalchuk ($6.000m)

Johan Franzen ($3.955m) / Daniel Cleary ($2.800m) / Kris Draper ($1.583m)

* Tomas Holmstrom ($1.500m) / * Darren Helm ($1.200m) / * Justin Abdelkader ($1.200m)

* Drew Miller ($0.900m) / * Patrick Eaves ($0.900m) / * Mattias Ritola ($0.650m)

DEFENSEMEN

Brian Rafalski ($6.000m) / * Nicklas Lidstrom ($5.000m)

Brad Stuart ($3.750m) / Niklas Kronwall ($3.000m)

* Andreas Lilja ($1.250m) / Jonathan Ericsson ($0.900m)

Jakub Kindl ($0.883m)

GOALTENDERS

Chris Osgood ($1.417m) / Jimmy Howard ($0.717m)

CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS

ROSTER: 21; PAYROLL: $56.388m; CAP ROOM: $1.312m BONUSES: $0.000m

Not one salary in that list is completely out of line. Even all of them together is not that big a stretch. It leaves you $1.3 mil to sign a 13th forward. That's enough to get a decent third liner, probably even one that could step into the top 6 in a pinch. And that roster is quite simply BETTER than it would be with Flip and Happy in place of Kovy and Miller/Eaves. The top 6 is far better, and bottom 6 is still more than capable of contributing both defensively and on the PK AND a fair amount of secondary scoring.

Would it be better long term? Who knows. You'd have to know what's going to happen with both Kovy and the Cap/CBA. It's a risk for sure. But I'd be willing to take it. Frankly there's risk in everything we do or don't do. Maybe in 6 years when Nick and Rafi are gone, Pav and Hank aging, etc, the team will go to s*** no matter what we do. If we're going to be bad for a few years, what difference does it make it we're bad with Kovy surrounded by scrubs or bad with a bunch of mediocre tweeners? Again, I don't blame anyone if they don't want to take the risk, but you can't definitely say it would be a bad move. You don't know. No one does. Your slippery slopes and portents of doom aside.

Would it be better than holding some money in reserve for the trade deadline? Or using some of the space to upgrade the defense? Or even goaltending? Or some other, cheaper top 6 forward that would allow us to keep either Filppula or Hudler? All that's debatable, and I wouldn't hate any of those decisions.

But if we come back next year with essentially the same team as this year, just Hudler replacing Willy and a couple largely inconsequential moves on the 4th line, Kindl, Meech, and Ericsson making up our bottom pair on defense, and no cap space for deadline acquisitions...well, I'll be disappointed, and I'd bet most fans would be too by season's end.

Now if you want to argue that he's not enough of an improvement to justify the risk, then fine. Can't really debate that since neither of us knows the future. Difference of opinion, moving on. Same if you just want to say it will never happen. Can't debate it. I don't think it will either. I just hope it does.

But if you want to say that Filppula, Hudler, and Bert would be better than Kovy, Miller, and whomever we could get for $1.3 mil (maybe even Bert, but I'd hope not), well... bring it on. But please put your silly 'bottom 6 full of scrubs' argument to bed.

What Holland is looking for and his interest in another long-term deal is irrelevent to the discussion of whether or not Kovy would make the team better. It only effects the likelihood of Kovy coming here. On that I agree, the chance is pretty much zero. Something big would have to happen before July 1st to change Kenny's mind, and it probably won't. Gives you something to clamor on about, but it still isn't relevent.

And my point on Hossa is that if you have a chance to improve something, you do it. You seem to be suggesting that Kenny isn't looking to improve the top 6 because we don't need anything. The reality is that the only reason he isn't looking is because he doesn't believe we can do anything there...at least nothing that he would be willing to do.

You can keep repeating this 'fill the bottom 6 with worthless scrubs' nonsense all you want, it doesn't make it true. Maybe Kovy would want $9 mil long term, and if so then it doesn't happen. But you have no idea what Kovy wants. If he wants to play for a good team, he'll have to take a reasonable cap hit. Maybe he could get a lot from a team like Colorado or LA that might be on the verge, but I doubt even that would happen. Not after the deals for Hossa, Franzen, Hank, and the Sedins (even though they aren't long-term). Again, it isn't really relevent to whether or not he would make the team better. That's like saying he would make the team worse by demanding the sacrifice of one roster player as part of his pre-game ritual. I could just as easily argue that Lidstrom will make the team worse because he will demand $10 mil and force the team to waive Datsyuk and Zetterberg. Suggesting that Kovy will make unreasonable demands doesn't make it true, nor does it mean I or anyone else was suggesting the team accept such demands. Obviously you don't sign a player at any cost.

We have to start with a reasonable foundation. And Nick @ $5 mil, Kovy @ $6 mil IS reasonable. A modest cap raise IS reasonable. This IS reasonable:

FORWARDS

Pavel Datsyuk ($6.700m) / Henrik Zetterberg ($6.083m) / * Ilya Kovalchuk ($6.000m)

Johan Franzen ($3.955m) / Daniel Cleary ($2.800m) / Kris Draper ($1.583m)

* Tomas Holmstrom ($1.500m) / * Darren Helm ($1.200m) / * Justin Abdelkader ($1.200m)

* Drew Miller ($0.900m) / * Patrick Eaves ($0.900m) / * Mattias Ritola ($0.650m)

DEFENSEMEN

Brian Rafalski ($6.000m) / * Nicklas Lidstrom ($5.000m)

Brad Stuart ($3.750m) / Niklas Kronwall ($3.000m)

* Andreas Lilja ($1.250m) / Jonathan Ericsson ($0.900m)

Jakub Kindl ($0.883m)

GOALTENDERS

Chris Osgood ($1.417m) / Jimmy Howard ($0.717m)

CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS

ROSTER: 21; PAYROLL: $56.388m; CAP ROOM: $1.312m BONUSES: $0.000m

Not one salary in that list is completely out of line. Even all of them together is not that big a stretch. It leaves you $1.3 mil to sign a 13th forward. That's enough to get a decent third liner, probably even one that could step into the top 6 in a pinch. And that roster is quite simply BETTER than it would be with Flip and Happy in place of Kovy and Miller/Eaves. The top 6 is far better, and bottom 6 is still more than capable of contributing both defensively and on the PK AND a fair amount of secondary scoring.

Would it be better long term? Who knows. You'd have to know what's going to happen with both Kovy and the Cap/CBA. It's a risk for sure. But I'd be willing to take it. Frankly there's risk in everything we do or don't do. Maybe in 6 years when Nick and Rafi are gone, Pav and Hank aging, etc, the team will go to s*** no matter what we do. If we're going to be bad for a few years, what difference does it make it we're bad with Kovy surrounded by scrubs or bad with a bunch of mediocre tweeners? Again, I don't blame anyone if they don't want to take the risk, but you can't definitely say it would be a bad move. You don't know. No one does. Your slippery slopes and portents of doom aside.

Would it be better than holding some money in reserve for the trade deadline? Or using some of the space to upgrade the defense? Or even goaltending? Or some other, cheaper top 6 forward that would allow us to keep either Filppula or Hudler? All that's debatable, and I wouldn't hate any of those decisions.

But if we come back next year with essentially the same team as this year, just Hudler replacing Willy and a couple largely inconsequential moves on the 4th line, Kindl, Meech, and Ericsson making up our bottom pair on defense, and no cap space for deadline acquisitions...well, I'll be disappointed, and I'd bet most fans would be too by season's end.

Now if you want to argue that he's not enough of an improvement to justify the risk, then fine. Can't really debate that since neither of us knows the future. Difference of opinion, moving on. Same if you just want to say it will never happen. Can't debate it. I don't think it will either. I just hope it does.

But if you want to say that Filppula, Hudler, and Bert would be better than Kovy, Miller, and whomever we could get for $1.3 mil (maybe even Bert, but I'd hope not), well... bring it on. But please put your silly 'bottom 6 full of scrubs' argument to bed.

The bolded= Thinnest lineup, we lose first round.

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Buppy your out of your mind, you would give up huds and flip for kovalchuk, and a 3rd player? Dude on paper datsyuk and kovalchuk look amazing but if you don't have a deep team than forget him.

Giving up that many key players for 1 amazing player goes against what detroit has been doing the last two decades. There was many times where we could have dumped some role players to acquire a great one, but we dont do that because you need all 4 lines rolling.

An example is this year, our 4 lines weren't as solid as they have been in the past decade.

Another example is SAN JOSE, yes the sharks. They have always had two great top 6 lines but the bottom two were horrible. They go and bring in malholtra, heatly, and nichol without giving away anyone key. But for us we can not do that. We can't get kovy without giving away someone big.

If i could get kovy without losing much bring him in, but if not screw him.

Maybe we can try and bring in a gritty fourth liner and maybe get raffi torres, if not raffi resign bertuzzi since raffi does what bertuzzi does with more speed and grit, and his back isnt screwed up.

An example off the top of my head:

flipula-zetterberg-franzen

hudler-datsyuk-holmer

helm-flipula-miller(maybe replaced for a 4th line specialist, moving eaves to 3rd line)

abdelkader-draper-eaves

Ritola

Lidstrom-rafalski

Stuart-Kronwall

Ericson- Lilja

G-Howard

Backup-Osgood

Also it is a must to get osgood to play needs to play at least 30-35 games in the season so hes fresh and howards fresh, also this way osgood is ready for playoffs just incase.

The bolded= Thinnest lineup, we lose first round.

I agree. Giving up three key players and one role player for one star is absurd. Can't do this in the cap world if you Red Wings want to be a Stanley Cup contender.

Fillppula, Hudler, Bertuzzi, Helm/Abdelkader/Holmstrom > Kovalchuk

Off the top of my head:

Hudler-Datsyuk-Holmer

Filppula-Zetterberg-Franzen

Bertuzzi-Abdelkader-Cleary

Eaves-Helm-Draper

Miller

Ritola

-(3rd line looks strong!, energy, and can score)

-(4th line is fast as HELL!)

-(DRWs PK will be top 5 in the league with those guys)

Lidstrom-Rafalski

Stuart-Kronwall

Lilja- Ericsson

Kindl

-(Kindl and Ericsson can rotate games)

Depth is great, isn't it!

Edited by Heaten

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I agree. Giving up three key players and one role player for one star is absurd. Can't do this in the cap world if you Red Wings want to be a Stanley Cup contender.

Fillppula, Hudler, Bertuzzi, Helm/Abdelkader/Holmstrom > Kovalchuk

Off the top of my head:

Hudler-Datsyuk-Holmer

Filppula-Zetterberg-Franzen

Bertuzzi-Abdelkader-Cleary

Eaves-Helm-Draper

Miller

Ritola

-(3rd line looks strong!, energy, and can score)

-(4th line is fast as HELL!)

-(DRWs PK will be top 5 in the league with those guys)

Lidstrom-Rafalski

Stuart-Kronwall

Lilja- Ericsson

Kindl

-(Kindl and Ericsson can rotate games)

Depth is great, isn't it!

Yes, having depth makes any team dangerous, if your able to role 4 lines thats great. We may have to get rid of bertuzzi if he doesnt play with pavs or z, at this point in his career he has to feed off other star players. Also i dont think abdelkader jumped helm for the 3rd line, abs trys to provide more energy so he should still be in 4th until he proves other wise.

Right now im already smiling at our top 6, deadly. We have 0 problems scoring in those top two lines, this years, and the years before. We havn't had many problems with our bottom two until this year. But this year we can get a good full season with abs, and who knows who else we will pick up.

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Yes, having depth makes any team dangerous, if your able to role 4 lines thats great. We may have to get rid of bertuzzi if he doesnt play with pavs or z, at this point in his career he has to feed off other star players. Also i dont think abdelkader jumped helm for the 3rd line, abs trys to provide more energy so he should still be in 4th until he proves other wise.

Right now im already smiling at our top 6, deadly. We have 0 problems scoring in those top two lines, this years, and the years before. We havn't had many problems with our bottom two until this year. But this year we can get a good full season with abs, and who knows who else we will pick up.

I look at it more like a 3rd-A line and a 3rd-B line. Remember, Abby did center the 2nd line when DRWs had all the injuries back in December. Helm stayed on the 3rd line. With aforementioned roster players, Babcock can make a scoring 3rd line (would be a 2nd line on any other team) with Hudler-Filppula-Eaves/Cleary.

That's why it's imperative to have depth, Babcock has so many more options and scoring threats he can put up against opposition team's bottom defense pairings.

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I agree. Giving up three key players and one role player for one star is absurd. Can't do this in the cap world if you Red Wings want to be a Stanley Cup contender.

Fillppula, Hudler, Bertuzzi, Helm/Abdelkader/Holmstrom > Kovalchuk

Off the top of my head:

Hudler-Datsyuk-Holmer

Filppula-Zetterberg-Franzen

Bertuzzi-Abdelkader-Cleary

Eaves-Helm-Draper

Miller

Ritola

-(3rd line looks strong!, energy, and can score)

-(4th line is fast as HELL!)

-(DRWs PK will be top 5 in the league with those guys)

Lidstrom-Rafalski

Stuart-Kronwall

Lilja- Ericsson

Kindl

-(Kindl and Ericsson can rotate games)

Depth is great, isn't it!

I don't know if you just can't read or if you're being deliberately dense. I'm not "Giving up three key players and one role player for one star ". It's three players for three players. Flip, Happy, Bert for Kovy, Miller, UFA. A little third line scoring for improvement on the top line. Some general depth for some depth in a key area.

Your top 6 is ok (though I don't like the line combos), but not nearly as good as mine. The 4th line is the same as I would have. That third line isn't any better than mine. Bert is completely out of place there. Maybe swap him for Torres and it's better than mine, but not by a lot, and you might have to lose your 14th forward.

So, for the UFA in my roster, I'd be looking for someone like Winchester or Pyatt. Big, ok speed, can play physical, works hard, not a liability on defense, can chip in 10-15 goals.

That gives me a bottom 6 of:

Winchester - Abdelkader - Miller

Draper - Helm - Eaves

Ritola

They bring speed, hard work, solid defense and penalty killing, physical play, and probably 60-70 goals.

Your bottom 6:

Bertuzzi-Abdelkader-Cleary

Eaves-Helm-Draper

Miller

Ritola

Pretty much the same thing but maybe 70-80 goals.

Your bottom 6 with Torres replacing Bert and Miller:

Torres-Abdelkader-Cleary

Eaves-Helm-Draper

Ritola

Pretty much the same thing goal-wise, but faster and more physical than your suggestion.

In exchange for those 0-20 goals I give you a vastly improved top 6, that is BETTER equipped to sustain an injury to a key forward. Yeah, I'd jump at that chance.

You have to accept that Bert or Cleary would not be 20 goal scorers buried on the third line. Flip will not break out on the third line. Hudler will not be a star on the third line. Two years ago we iced a third line of Hudler-Filppula-Sammy. On paper it looks a lot better than what either of us is talking about now, but they still combined for only 40 ES goals. 40. With a stacked top 6 in front of them. Happy and Sammy got a lot of points playing on the PP, but ES they were nothing special. 40 goals. Draper-Helm-Eaves this year combined for 30.

Your 'depth' looks great on paper, but in practice it just doesn't work that way. You want valuable contributions from a 3rd and 4th line. Mine give you that. They take the PK burden off the top 6. They cause problems with their speed and physicality. Maybe we could even start using Helm and Eaves/Miller/Abdelkader as shut down players against opposing scoring lines the way we used to use Maltby and Draper. And they can still contribute secondary scoring.

Once again, you don't argue against what I'm actually suggesting. I'll try to simplify it for you. I doubt you'll get it, but whatever.

Filppula + Hudler + Bertuzzi FOR Kovalchuk + Miller + Winchester. Everything else is the same. No other changes. No loss of Helm/Abby/Eaves/Homer. Just those 6 players. 3 on your side, 3 on mine. Or since you went with 14 forwards this time, go ahead and take Miller off my side. Flip-Happy-Bert for Kovy-Winchester. Hell, call it Flip+Happy for Kovy if you want.

Kovalchuk > Filppula + Hudler. That's the crux of my position. Argue against that.

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if by your own admission, its not going to happen anyway...why argue at all?

the vs. announcers would call this "equine overkill" (translation...beating a dead horse!).

this argument needs its head cut off and dropped at the foot of jack woltz's bed!!

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I don't know if you just can't read or if you're being deliberately dense. I'm not "Giving up three key players and one role player for one star ". It's three players for three players. Flip, Happy, Bert for Kovy, Miller, UFA. A little third line scoring for improvement on the top line. Some general depth for some depth in a key area.

Your top 6 is ok (though I don't like the line combos), but not nearly as good as mine. The 4th line is the same as I would have. That third line isn't any better than mine. Bert is completely out of place there. Maybe swap him for Torres and it's better than mine, but not by a lot, and you might have to lose your 14th forward.

So, for the UFA in my roster, I'd be looking for someone like Winchester or Pyatt. Big, ok speed, can play physical, works hard, not a liability on defense, can chip in 10-15 goals.

That gives me a bottom 6 of:

Winchester - Abdelkader - Miller

Draper - Helm - Eaves

Ritola

They bring speed, hard work, solid defense and penalty killing, physical play, and probably 60-70 goals.

Your bottom 6:

Bertuzzi-Abdelkader-Cleary

Eaves-Helm-Draper

Miller

Ritola

Pretty much the same thing but maybe 70-80 goals.

Your bottom 6 with Torres replacing Bert and Miller:

Torres-Abdelkader-Cleary

Eaves-Helm-Draper

Ritola

Pretty much the same thing goal-wise, but faster and more physical than your suggestion.

In exchange for those 0-20 goals I give you a vastly improved top 6, that is BETTER equipped to sustain an injury to a key forward. Yeah, I'd jump at that chance.

You have to accept that Bert or Cleary would not be 20 goal scorers buried on the third line. Flip will not break out on the third line. Hudler will not be a star on the third line. Two years ago we iced a third line of Hudler-Filppula-Sammy. On paper it looks a lot better than what either of us is talking about now, but they still combined for only 40 ES goals. 40. With a stacked top 6 in front of them. Happy and Sammy got a lot of points playing on the PP, but ES they were nothing special. 40 goals. Draper-Helm-Eaves this year combined for 30.

Your 'depth' looks great on paper, but in practice it just doesn't work that way. You want valuable contributions from a 3rd and 4th line. Mine give you that. They take the PK burden off the top 6. They cause problems with their speed and physicality. Maybe we could even start using Helm and Eaves/Miller/Abdelkader as shut down players against opposing scoring lines the way we used to use Maltby and Draper. And they can still contribute secondary scoring.

Once again, you don't argue against what I'm actually suggesting. I'll try to simplify it for you. I doubt you'll get it, but whatever.

Filppula + Hudler + Bertuzzi FOR Kovalchuk + Miller + Winchester. Everything else is the same. No other changes. No loss of Helm/Abby/Eaves/Homer. Just those 6 players. 3 on your side, 3 on mine. Or since you went with 14 forwards this time, go ahead and take Miller off my side. Flip-Happy-Bert for Kovy-Winchester. Hell, call it Flip+Happy for Kovy if you want.

Kovalchuk > Filppula + Hudler. That's the crux of my position. Argue against that.

You're calling me dense when you don't even understand how a salary cap works? Ugh!

You will need to give up much more than Filppula + Hudler for Kovalchuk. If you can't understand that, then nobody can help you. I think it's you who has the poor understanding and grasp of reality.

"It's three players for three players. Flip, Happy, Bert for Kovy, Miller, UFA. A little third line scoring for improvement on the top line. Some general depth for some depth in a key area." [...] Kovalchuk > Filppula + Hudler. That's the crux of my position. Argue against that.

Seriously?

First you need to give up Filppula, Hudler, Bertuzzi and Holmstrom/Helm/Abdelkader. How else are you going to pay Kovy, Miller and all the UFA replacements?

Edited by Heaten

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Buppy your out of your mind, you would give up huds and flip for kovalchuk, and a 3rd player? Dude on paper datsyuk and kovalchuk look amazing but if you don't have a deep team than forget him.

Giving up that many key players for 1 amazing player goes against what detroit has been doing the last two decades. There was many times where we could have dumped some role players to acquire a great one, but we dont do that because you need all 4 lines rolling.

An example is this year, our 4 lines weren't as solid as they have been in the past decade.

Another example is SAN JOSE, yes the sharks. They have always had two great top 6 lines but the bottom two were horrible. They go and bring in malholtra, heatly, and nichol without giving away anyone key. But for us we can not do that. We can't get kovy without giving away someone big.

If i could get kovy without losing much bring him in, but if not screw him.

Maybe we can try and bring in a gritty fourth liner and maybe get raffi torres, if not raffi resign bertuzzi since raffi does what bertuzzi does with more speed and grit, and his back isnt screwed up.

An example off the top of my head:

flipula-zetterberg-franzen

hudler-datsyuk-holmer

helm-flipula-miller(maybe replaced for a 4th line specialist, moving eaves to 3rd line)

abdelkader-draper-eaves

Ritola

Lidstrom-rafalski

Stuart-Kronwall

Ericson- Lilja

G-Howard

Backup-Osgood

Also it is a must to get osgood to play needs to play at least 30-35 games in the season so hes fresh and howards fresh, also this way osgood is ready for playoffs just incase.

The bolded= Thinnest lineup, we lose first round.

Your right. In the past we could get Shannahan for Primeau. Chelios for Eriksson. Hasek for Kozlov. Hull and Robitaille for nothing. But we can't now with the cap. We can't Kovy without giving something up.

We also can't get Hudler for Williams or Bert. We can't get Abdelkader for Miller or Eaves. We can't get Torres for nothing. Hell, we can't even get Helm for Helm. We can't just upgrade the secondary players anymore than we can upgrade top line players. Hudler coming back takes almost all the salary we were paying for Bert AND Williams. Abdelkader will likely take almost everything we were paying Miller AND Eaves (or more). Fortunately, with Lidstrom and Homer likely to free some cap space, we have some flexibility. You want to spread it around on small upgrades here and there. I'd rather lump it all together for one big upgrade. I take the freed space, use it for the various raises, then instead of taking Hudler back, I package him with Flip for a better player. Moreover, since Kovy is a FA, Flip and Happy can be traded for picks and prospects. Possibly find that future star on an ELC who can give us great depth again.

We can NOT recreate 02, with 3 fantastic scoring lines and the grind line at thier best. That's not possible in a cap world. You want a 3rd line that can score 60 goals? Either get some kids on ELCs to play like stars, or plan on having a second line that can only score 40.

I'm not sure what you think is 'thin' about my lineup, unless maybe you didn't count the FA signing I mention.

flipula-zetterberg-franzen = Cleary-Zetterberg-Franzen (I assume this Filppula was supposed to be Cleary)

hudler-datsyuk-holmer <<< Kovalchuk-Datsyuk-Holstrom

helm-flipula-miller(...eaves) > Winchester-Abdelkader/Helm-Miller/Eaves

abdelkader-draper-eaves(...possible '4th line specialist') = Draper-Helm/Abdelkader-Eaves/Miller

Ritola = Ritola

Slightly better 3rd, much worse 2nd.

Nor do I understand the logic that would have them losing in the first round. Our team this year, despite a nightmarish sequence of injuries, put up over 100 points, made the 2nd round, and were very competetive against perhaps the best team in the league. (And with a little more luck could still be playing)

These are the changes from this year to my proposal:

Filppula - Kovalchuk

Bertuzzi - Winchester/Pyatt or some other similar UFA signing

Williams - Abdelkader (full time)

Maltby + May - Ritola

Lebda + Meech - Kindl

The bottom 3 are likely to happen no matter what. (Though Meech might stick around if we don't keep Lilja. :( ) Are you trying to suggest now that Flip and Bert would be better than Kovy and Winchester?

Assuming the bottom 3 changes happen, the other changes without Kovy would be:

Add Hudler

Lose one of Bert, Miller, or Eaves

Maybe add a 3rd/4th line grit player

Lose another of Bert, Miller, or Eaves

How is any feasible option from the above any more of an upgrade than Kovy?

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You're calling me dense when you don't even understand how a salary cap works? Ugh!

You will need to give up much more than Filppula + Hudler for Kovalchuk. If you can't understand that, then nobody can help you. I think it's you who has the poor understanding and grasp of reality.

Seriously?

First you need to give up Filppula, Hudler, Bertuzzi and Holmstrom/Helm/Abdelkader. How else are you going to pay Kovy, Miller and all the UFA replacements?

FORWARDS

* Tomas Holmstrom ($1.500m) / Pavel Datsyuk ($6.700m) / * Ilya Kovalchuk ($6.000m)

Johan Franzen ($3.955m) / Henrik Zetterberg ($6.083m) / Daniel Cleary ($2.800m)

* Brad Winchester ($1.300m) / * Justin Abdelkader ($1.200m) / * Drew Miller ($0.900m)

Kris Draper ($1.583m) / * Darren Helm ($1.200m) / * Patrick Eaves ($0.900m)

* Mattias Ritola ($0.650m)

DEFENSEMEN

Brian Rafalski ($6.000m) / * Nicklas Lidstrom ($5.000m)

Brad Stuart ($3.750m) / Niklas Kronwall ($3.000m)

* Andreas Lilja ($1.250m) / Jonathan Ericsson ($0.900m)

Jakub Kindl ($0.883m)

GOALTENDERS

Chris Osgood ($1.417m) / Jimmy Howard ($0.717m)

CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS

ROSTER: 21; PAYROLL: $57.688m; CAP ROOM: $0.012m BONUSES: $0.000m

Every single salary in that list, and the modest cap raise, are reasonable expectations. Kovy would have to be a ~10 year deal, but it is not unrealistic. Whether or not Kovy would accept a reasonable deal like that is irrelevent. Obviously, if he wouldn't then you don't take him.

Edited by Buppy

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if by your own admission, its not going to happen anyway...why argue at all?

the vs. announcers would call this "equine overkill" (translation...beating a dead horse!).

this argument needs its head cut off and dropped at the foot of jack woltz's bed!!

What else is there to argue about?

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Kovalchuk > Filppula + Hudler. That's the crux of my position. Argue against that.

It's funny that you keep throwing around the idea Holland can afford Brad Winchester, who already makes $800,000, when Holland couldn't even afford $.500 UFA players to fill holes.

Here's how it would break down. Look at all the holes that need to be filled with $.500 UFA. How are you going to find that many "diamonds in the rough" aka Eaves type players?

Kovalchuk ($7)-Datsyuk ($6.7)-Holmstrom($1.8) = 15.5

Cleary(2.9)-Zetterberg($6.1)-Franzen($4) = $13

UFA($.500)-Abdelkader($1.2)-Draper($1.6) = $3.3

UFA(.500)-UFA($.500)-Miller($.775) = $1.8

Ritola ($.775)

-Total $34.3

Lidstrom($5)-Ralfi($6)

Kronwall($3)-Stuart($3.7)

Lilja($1)-Ericsson($.900)

Kindl($.900)

-Total $20.5

GOALIES = $2.2

Grand total = $57.1

Cap allowance $56.8

OVER CAP SPACE $300,000 after signing a bunch of $.500 scrubs

And you are talking about Holland signing Brad Winchester, who is only 28 years old, and already makes $800,000 per year? Not.Gonna.Happen if you have Kovalchuk on this team. Or maybe you'd like to tell Lidstrom "sorry pal, we're going a different way. Go sign someplace else"?!

Face it dude, your argument is not realistic in the cap world, whatsoever.

Edited by Heaten

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FORWARDS

* Tomas Holmstrom ($1.500m) / Pavel Datsyuk ($6.700m) / * Ilya Kovalchuk ($6.000m)

Johan Franzen ($3.955m) / Henrik Zetterberg ($6.083m) / Daniel Cleary ($2.800m)

* Brad Winchester ($1.300m) / * Justin Abdelkader ($1.200m) / * Drew Miller ($0.900m)

Kris Draper ($1.583m) / * Darren Helm ($1.200m) / * Patrick Eaves ($0.900m)

* Mattias Ritola ($0.650m)

DEFENSEMEN

Brian Rafalski ($6.000m) / * Nicklas Lidstrom ($5.000m)

Brad Stuart ($3.750m) / Niklas Kronwall ($3.000m)

* Andreas Lilja ($1.250m) / Jonathan Ericsson ($0.900m)

Jakub Kindl ($0.883m)

GOALTENDERS

Chris Osgood ($1.417m) / Jimmy Howard ($0.717m)

CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS

ROSTER: 21; PAYROLL: $57.688m; CAP ROOM: $0.012m BONUSES: $0.000m

Every single salary in that list, and the modest cap raise, are reasonable expectations. Kovy would have to be a ~10 year deal, but it is not unrealistic. Whether or not Kovy would accept a reasonable deal like that is irrelevent. Obviously, if he wouldn't then you don't take him.

Okay, now I see what you are doing. You have this unrealistic idea that everyone is going to sign and/or re-sign on the Detroit Red Wings for under market value, while stating the cap will go up to "$X" amount to favor your argument.

I don't play NHL '09 or whatever that game is called.

We both agree on one thing, Holland won't be signing Kovalchuk. And I doubt Holland plays NHL '09 either. btw, the roster you posted looks very, very weak at best. How well does it do in NHL '09?

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Kovalchuk`s agent must be praying the NHLPA triggers the inflator. If every team suddenly gets $5,000,000 in bonus bux you can bet Kovy will get a retarded contract.

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Okay, now I see what you are doing. You have this unrealistic idea that everyone is going to sign and/or re-sign on the Detroit Red Wings for under market value, while stating the cap will go up to "$X" amount to favor your argument.

I don't play NHL '09 or whatever that game is called.

We both agree on one thing, Holland won't be signing Kovalchuk. And I doubt Holland plays NHL '09 either. btw, the roster you posted looks very, very weak at best. How well does it do in NHL '09?

Reports indicate that cap is expected to go up. There have also been rumors of 'close to $58 million' and 'go up about a million'. It seems fairly likely at this point.

$6 mil is fair for Kovy. Citing: Hossa ($5.1), Zetterberg ($6.1), Sedins ($6.1). It is a fair and reasonble price for a 10 year deal.

It is reasonable to expect life-time Wings Homer and Lidstrom, both aging, to re-sign for a good value.

$1.2 mil is a fair price for Helm and Abdelkader. I think it's actually a little high even. Either way, it's the number you picked, so I don't think you can reneg on it now.

$900k is a fair price for Eaves and Miller. (You even gave Miller less. But you also gave Cleary $100k more than his contract, so...) It's substantially more than they got this year. There's also likely to be a couple dozen players just as good who'd be willing to play for that, or less. We got Eaves and Miller cheap this year. Malhotra got $700k in SJ. Prospal signed for a million. Afinogenov got $800k. Pyatt got $600k. Betts will get $700k, up from $550k. I'm sure there's plenty more like that.

Ritola has done nothing yet, not even been exceptional in GR. $650 is plenty fair for him. Lilly has done nothing that really deserves a raise. $1.25 is plenty for an aging 3rd pair shot blocker.

Winchester hasn't had any great career. $1.3 is an over-payment if anything. The Blues seem to like him now, so maybe they give him more. So what. As I said about Eaves and Miller, there are plenty of other fish that would take it, and be just as good.

And how in the hell do you think that roster is weak? What part of it is even remotely weak?

Edited by Buppy

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In response to Buppy's Kovalchuk defense:

It's possible, but I don't really want it.

Yes, I'd rather have Hudler and Filppula. Not because I feel that they're better now, but because your scenario calls for yet another long term contract. I don't want however many million tied up in an old Zetterberg, Franzen and Kovalchuk in 10 years. They might be great now, but they will drop off by the end of those contracts. Probably quite a bit, like 99% of players do. And if that happens, we're screwed.

Edited by Zetts

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Look, Kovalchuk hurts the Red Wings by costing the team 12 goals per season and key depth.

Lets look at the goals they'll likely produce and compare to what DRWs lose:

Kovalchuk (45 goals) - On Dats line. Give him 45 goals, though he only scored 41 last season

Miller (10 goals) - Same as last season / probably a no show in the playoffs again against other teams with better depth

Winchester (3 goals) - He has no offensive skills in the NHL

Datsuyk (10 goals) - Doubt Pavel will score 10 more goals having Kovalchuk on his wing, but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt. Who's to say they even have any chemistry together? It's a risk

-Total 68 goals

PLAYERS GONE TO PAY KOVALCHUK:

Filppula (22 goals) - Filppula will likely score more than 20 goals. He's ready for a breakout and will getting 2nd line minutes next to Zetterberg. Filppula scored 19 goals in 2007/08 in 73 games

Hudler (28 goals) - If he get's top line minutes with Datsyuk, he will be an offensive threat!

Bertuzzi (20 goals) Scored 18 goals last season. This season he is settled in and already found chemestry with Zetterberg.

Holmstrom (count as 10 goals) - Scored 25 goals last year. Should get 20+ again this year. Holmstrom is the wild card. Maybe Abdelkader or Helm get the boot instead? Either way, one will be the odd man out to afford Kovalchuk -- I'll cound the loss as 10 goals

-Total goals lost = 80

Wings lose 12 goals per season, and, most importantly, lose important key depth (needed to go deep in the playoffs) and one of the best 2-way forwards on the team. All for adding one pricy player who will have a long-term contract until the year of 2023; Kovalchuck will have a $7 million cap hit til the age of 40.

Edited by Heaten

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In response to Buppy's Kovalchuk defense:

It's possible, but I don't really want it.

Yes, I'd rather have Hudler and Filppula. Not because I feel that they're better now, but because your scenario calls for yet another long term contract. I don't want however many million tied up in an old Zetterberg, Franzen and Kovalchuk in 10 years. They might be great now, but they will drop off by the end of those contracts. Probably quite a bit, like 99% of players do. And if that happens, we're screwed.

Understandable. Personally, I'd do it. A lot can happen in ~6 years. Maybe $16m isn't a lot for aging stars by then. Maybe the new CBA will give us some options. Maybe trade one in a few years, while you still could.

But yeah, I perfectly understand not wanting another long term deal.

Look, Kovalchuk hurts the Red Wings by costing the team 12 goals per season and key depth.

Lets look at the goals they'll likely produce and compare to what DRWs lose:

Kovalchuk (45 goals) - On Dats line. Give him 45 goals, though he only scored 41 last season

Miller (10 goals) - Same as last season / probably a no show in the playoffs again against other teams with better depth

Winchester (3 goals) - He has no offensive skills in the NHL

Datsuyk (10 goals) - Doubt Pavel will score 10 more goals having Kovalchuk on his wing, but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt. Who's to say they even have any chemistry together? It's a risk

-Total 68 goals

PLAYERS GONE TO PAY KOVALCHUK:

Filppula (22 goals) - Filppula will likely score more than 20 goals. He's ready for a breakout and will getting 2nd line minutes next to Zetterberg. Filppula scored 19 goals in 2007/08 in 73 games

Hudler (28 goals) - If he get's top line minutes with Datsyuk, he will be an offensive threat!

Bertuzzi (20 goals) Scored 18 goals last season. This season he is settled in and already found chemestry with Zetterberg.

Holmstrom (count as 10 goals) - Scored 25 goals last year. Should get 20+ again this year. Holmstrom is the wild card. Maybe Abdelkader or Helm get the boot instead? Either way, one will be the odd man out to afford Kovalchuk -- I'll cound the loss as 10 goals

-Total goals lost = 80

Wings lose 12 goals per season, and, most importantly, lose important key depth (needed to go deep in the playoffs) and one of the best 2-way forwards on the team. All for adding one pricy player who will have a long-term contract until the year of 2023; Kovalchuck will have a $7 million cap hit til the age of 40.

10 years @ $6 mil. I wouldn't go over that for him. So I don't lose Holmstrom or any other extra player you have to use to try to make an argument. But hell, since you completely refuse to argue against what I'm actually suggesting, why don't you just argue against a 44 year deal @ $12.6 million. You could really win that one.

Let me try to make it perfectly clear.

I WOULD NOT GIVE MORE THAN ~$6 MILLION TO KOVY. IF HE WON'T TAKE $6, THEN I DON'T DO THE DEAL. I DON'T LOSE EXTRA PLAYERS. I DO THE DEAL I SUGGEST OR I DON'T DO ANY DEAL. I OFFER MY DEAL. MY DEAL = BETTER. YOUR DEAL = WORSE. I DO NOT DO YOUR DEAL. MY DEAL OR NO DEAL.

Understand that? Say "that's what you'd have to do" all you want. I wouldn't do it. IF (and you don't really know) I had to do that, I would say no. $7 mil doesn't work. $7 mil is too much. I won't pay $7 mil. I don't care if I would 'have' to. In that case I wouldn't get Kovy. $6 mil or I don't do it. If Kovy has to cost $7 mil, my roster would be exactly the same as yours, because I wouldn't sign him.

Now please, for the love of God, stop arguing with something I'm not suggesting.

So the top 6 is:

Kovalchuk = 41 (averaged over 45 the last 6 years, but this should be good) VS

Hudler = 28 (optimistic, I'd say...who knows if he can stick on a top line, or if Babs will even give him a real chance)

Cleary = 20 (playing alongside Hank and Mule, he's actually done it before) VS

Filppula = 20 (yeah, we'll see, career high for him)

+13

Datsyuk (and I don't even need to add anything to him), Zetterberg, Franzen, and Homlstrom make up the remaining top 6 in both cases. I'm not quite sure how you still managed to get Bert in your top 6.

3rd line now:

You: Bertuzzi-Abdelkader-Cleary

I'll give you 14-12-15 = 41 (better than Happy-Flip-Sammy were able to do, even with a much better top 6 in front of them)

VS

Me: Winchester-Abdelkader-Miller

I'll call it 8-10-10 = 28 (a bit conservative I think, don't think Cleary and Bert would really make Abby better, but whatever)

Total: Even

Goals come out pretty even depending on how you want to slant the projections. I could easily add 10-15 goals difference either way. That's the fun thing about projections, you can say whatever you want.

As for depth:

Bert and Cleary aren't going to be any harder to play against, nor generate significantly more offense than my third line. Maybe 1 goal in a 7 game series (and that offset by my superior top 6). So the depth they give really comes down to having a few more options in terms of switching around line combos, and some insurance against someone like Homer, Flip, or Hudler getting injured. That is indeed valuable.

Kovy however, reduces the need to protect against injury to Homer and Cleary. We're not as reliant on those 2nd tier players. He also gives us another legit superstar that protects us some against a key injury to Hank, Pav, or Franzen. Something your lineup can't offer. We are also harder to matchup against in the top 6. You have to admit that is also valuable.

Persoanlly, I think I was pretty conservative. I think my lineup would net 20-30 more goals, and be much harder to shut down in the playoffs. But that's all just guesswork.

I'm also not factoring in the return for Filppula and Hudler. I'd be looking for a good prospect with a year or two of exemption left. Someone who could step in down the road and contribute well at a bargain price. Someone who could potentially come in for the playoffs and contribute right away. I know that'd be hoping for a lot, so I'm not really considering that. But the possibility is there.

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But that's all just guesswork.

Pretty much sums up your entire argument.

I think one of my first points (which you stated was "irrelevant") was *if* Holland seriously wanted to hand out another long-term contract, he'd done so by re-signing Hossa for 12-years @ $5.3 million cap hit.

The entire debate is pretty much irrelevant since we both agree Holland isn't going to sign Kovalchuk, nor is willing to offer anyone a long-term deal.

Zeowingsfan likes this

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