Lecavalier to sign new 9-year, $77-million deal

[Opie 308]

You need to look out 10 years at the age of 38 since the contract doesn't kick in until after next year. It looks like a fair deal right now, but there is plenty of risk. Is there going to be decline at the age of 35, 36, 37, 38? We assume the cap will keep going up, but there is a chance the cap will actually be LOWER 10 years from now, you never know.

Do you mean I can't make and use blind assumptions to back up my posts, surely you jest!

[HenryMalredo 2]

You need to look out 10 years at the age of 38 since the contract doesn't kick in until after next year. It looks like a fair deal right now, but there is plenty of risk. Is there going to be decline at the age of 35, 36, 37, 38? We assume the cap will keep going up, but there is a chance the cap will actually be LOWER 10 years from now, you never know.

It's a risk, but I don't see someone who is one of the best forwards in the league like Lecavalier having too much of a decline in his old age.

[HenrikRules40 14]

You're right....Z's way better defensively.

Bingo.

[Anomalously 0]

Opie, you can predict doom but a hard-working clear no. 1 pick can't be projected as a star? You're like disregarding the guy has real skills. My bet is Stamkos makes the NHL and makes a substantial impact -- no, not Crosby, Ovechkin, but I think it's reasonable to say he could have a Sam Gagne, Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane type year. Beyond that, having Lecavalier/St. Louis and Prospal/Stamkos means there are two scoring lines. Lecavalier-St. Louis-Prospal-Stamkos, provided Stamkos lives up to Kane, is as talented as, say, Z-Dats-Franzen-Fil, provided Franzen doesn't score 82 in 82. In two years, when that latter combination costs us $20.5M, and we lose Lidstrom to retirement, we'll look an awful lot like Tampa, whose top 4 forwards might even cost less, and we won't have the luxury of having the best defender in the league anymore.

Raf-Lilja

Kronwall-Ericsson

Meech-Quincey

That's our defense in two years, assuming Lidstrom doesn't pull a Chelios. We have a lot of depth now, but we won't have Lids forever. Nobody here is predicting doom, but it's a lot easier from the top rather than the bottom.

Tampa is just about to sign a top 5 forward in this league for less than what Crosby and Ovechkin are making. It's a solid move... I can't honestly predict the moves over the course of the next 2-3 years for the Wings and the Lightning, but I don't think you can say this handcuffs them to a point of mediocrity given their excellent drafting position and current personnel.

--

Also, to those who say the only difference is Z's defensive prowess, Vinny is stronger, bigger, more physical, better goal scorer. They're both top 5. There isn't a huge difference, this is like comparing Eric Lindros and Sergei Fedorov in 93-95. You wouldn't -- besides saying that they were both top 5.

[NeverForgetMac25 483]

Bingo.

BTW, that wasn't even to mention the fact that he doesn't take anywhere close to as many penalties as Vinny does.

No knock on Vinny though.....the guy is an absolute beast and any team would be fortunate to have him.

[Dabura 12,232]

Solid signing. Vinny is the heart and soul of the organization and one of the best players in the world, period.

[PaVel DaTsYuK fan13 0]

Well that gives him a bunch of incentive for the next five years. I'd be willing to bet money he won't play all nine of those years in Tampa

[South Dakota wings fan 7]

$8.5M is a fair deal for Lecavalier. I wouldn't have been surprised if that's what Z signed for either, not even before the Lecav deal.

I can see Z getting the same deal as Spezza 7 x 7, maybe 7.5 mil. I think this deal for Vinny helps set a benchmark for future deals. I also think the Mule might be worth roughly what Ribiero got 5 x 5. Maybe Dumont's 4 x 4. But definetly somewhere in that range.

[eva unit zero 271]

Zetterberg will not make more than Nick Lidstrom. So Lecavalier has no bearing on Z's deal.

[eva unit zero 271]

I can see Z getting the same deal as Spezza 7 x 7, maybe 7.5 mil. I think this deal for Vinny helps set a benchmark for future deals. I also think the Mule might be worth roughly what Ribiero got 5 x 5. Maybe Dumont's 4 x 4. But definetly somewhere in that range.

Franzen is not even worth Cleary's $2.8m. A good two month period doesn't make him a $5m player when he still didn't clear 40 points or 30 goals and has won zero awards.

If Franzen again fails to clear 30g and 40 pts, and he gets more than $2.5m for a deal less than four years, he's overpaid.

[YoungGuns1340 1]

Zetterberg will not make more than Nick Lidstrom. So Lecavalier has no bearing on Z's deal.

I agree. I don't see how Lecavalier's deal has anything to do with Zetterberg. And frankly I think the logic of one player directly impacting every similar players contract negotiations has gotten out of hand. Hank is not the best player on his team, Vinny is. Hank's team is designed to compete year after year for the big prize, Vinnys team isnt. Hank isnt the captain, Vinny is. Vinnys team isnt filled with veterans who have taken discounts to wear the Winged Wheel, Hanks is. And Feaster isn't Holland.

Just because Lecavalier and Zetterberg are similar players doesn't mean they'll get paid similarly.

[South Dakota wings fan 7]

Franzen is not even worth Cleary's $2.8m. A good two month period doesn't make him a $5m player when he still didn't clear 40 points or 30 goals and has won zero awards.

If Franzen again fails to clear 30g and 40 pts, and he gets more than $2.5m for a deal less than four years, he's overpaid.

Good point, you've got me there. Is it possible the Mule looks for a shorter deal to prove himself as a big time scorer every year?

I guess the point I was making between Vinny and Z, would be that I think Vinny's contract sets up the fact that Z will not be making that much money per year...which is good.

[BeeRYCE 2]

Some can say Z's better than Vinnie, and it might be unanimous at this point, but I honestly think the only thing Z has over him is his defensive play (pretty big BTW). What Vinnie has over Z though is a *slightly* better scoring touch, a better physical game, and the fact that Lecavalier only misses up to 1 to 2 games a season is huge. Zetterberg is more injury prone, sorry but he is.

The better hockey player? At this point Z, but Vinnie has value. As a matter of fact, I'm going to go on and predict Lecavalier as a Hart favourite next season.

[Opie 308]

Opie, you can predict doom but a hard-working clear no. 1 pick can't be projected as a star? You're like disregarding the guy has real skills. My bet is Stamkos makes the NHL and makes a substantial impact -- no, not Crosby, Ovechkin, but I think it's reasonable to say he could have a Sam Gagne, Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane type year. Beyond that, having Lecavalier/St. Louis and Prospal/Stamkos means there are two scoring lines. Lecavalier-St. Louis-Prospal-Stamkos, provided Stamkos lives up to Kane, is as talented as, say, Z-Dats-Franzen-Fil, provided Franzen doesn't score 82 in 82. In two years, when that latter combination costs us $20.5M, and we lose Lidstrom to retirement, we'll look an awful lot like Tampa, whose top 4 forwards might even cost less, and we won't have the luxury of having the best defender in the league anymore.

Raf-Lilja

Kronwall-Ericsson

Meech-Quincey

That's our defense in two years, assuming Lidstrom doesn't pull a Chelios. We have a lot of depth now, but we won't have Lids forever. Nobody here is predicting doom, but it's a lot easier from the top rather than the bottom.

Tampa is just about to sign a top 5 forward in this league for less than what Crosby and Ovechkin are making. It's a solid move... I can't honestly predict the moves over the course of the next 2-3 years for the Wings and the Lightning, but I don't think you can say this handcuffs them to a point of mediocrity given their excellent drafting position and current personnel.

--

Also, to those who say the only difference is Z's defensive prowess, Vinny is stronger, bigger, more physical, better goal scorer. They're both top 5. There isn't a huge difference, this is like comparing Eric Lindros and Sergei Fedorov in 93-95. You wouldn't -- besides saying that they were both top 5.

Maybe I should have choosen my words more carefully, the ship could be righted, I am not saying this was a bad signing, but a signing that puts them in a tight spot. I think I said many times you can not just let Vinny walk away, if they do that they look like asshats.

Stamkos might be the Kane or Toews you are right but that makes him 3-4 years out from being a top tier NHL player, as you said he will probably not be Crosby or Ovechkin and get to that top tier in 1-2 seasons.

Prospal is still not signed, he will not be cheap and IMHO is overrated, they guy is a good hockey player but in my opinion is not a player that when he is signed it makes you stand up and say wow, Tampa just got a lot better with Prospal. Unfortunately for them, signing him would make a big difference on their team.

My main point is that they have 8 forwards next year signed and that is it, Detroit will not be in that situation for a long time coming if it happens at all. And to even further my point not only does Det have players like Kronwall, Datsyuk, Rafalski long term, they have a feeder system developing. Meech, Quincey, Helm, Hudler, Flip, Mule all young guys that have shown the potential to be daily contributors. And they have guys like Cleary signed for a long time, that may be the equivalent of a Prospal signing for Tampa, but I don't hear people raving about the youngsters in the Tampa system.

Again I am not saying this is a bad signing, unless you want to have no fans after next season, and be an even worse team you have to sign this guy, he is top 10 talent and as pointed out by others is not an injury prone player. You have to sign this kid, but it hamstrings them, I don't see the cap going much higher than 60 mil unless the league revenue goes through the roof, and you have a guy signed for pretty decent money for 9 years.

The Z situation will be no different, Ken Holland can not let this kid slip away, if he asks for 8.5 9 years you have to say, OK Mr. Zetterberg, enjoy your 9 year stay in Detroit.

But that would hamstring the Red Wings, not as much as Tampa, because Detroit has the guys I mentioned above for different lengths of time.

Where as in Tampa they will have 8 players and no goaltender.

Boyle is overpaid and is not a great defenseman, as I stated he would be #3 in Detroit at best, and would make a great linemate for Kronwall, at 3.5-4 mil.

There defense is not setup at all, they have offense and will be drafting another top line offensive talent, they have nothing beyond a first line currently. They barely have a first pairing with Kuba and Boyle.

Again, they may find a way to trade (St. Louis is cheap the last 2 years) or maneuver around some money however this appears to have them in a bind.

[NeverForgetMac25 483]

Good point, you've got me there. Is it possible the Mule looks for a shorter deal to prove himself as a big time scorer every year?

I guess the point I was making between Vinny and Z, would be that I think Vinny's contract sets up the fact that Z will not be making that much money per year...which is good.

If that's because of the reasons YoungGuns1340 stated, then I can understand the bolded comment. However, if its based on skill level....Z possess the same offensive prowess, but doesn't get his team in trouble as much by taking the amount of penalties Vinny does, and most importantly Z is one of (if not) the best defensive-offensemen in the game. Vinny is nowhere near that.

While Vinny is absolutely one of the top 5 players in the world, the only areas he has a clear advantage over Z on is his size (and perhaps a healthier back).

Edit: (Kelsey) Grammar

Edited June 26, 2008 by Never Forget Mac #25

[NeverForgetMac25 483]

Raf-Lilja

Kronwall-Ericsson

Meech-Quincey

That's our defense in two years, assuming Lidstrom doesn't pull a Chelios. We have a lot of depth now, but we won't have Lids forever. Nobody here is predicting doom, but it's a lot easier from the top rather than the bottom.

That's not true Anom. The Wings will have Z and Lids under large contracts for atleast the 2009/2010 season and will be able to ice a very competitive team that season. After that, if Lids does decide to hang them up, Kenny will absolutely spend atleast a good amount of what would have been Lids' $7.45 million on a top Dman either via a trade or most likely free agency.

To say that the Wings defense will look like what you suggested isn't very accurate IMO.

Also, to those who say the only difference is Z's defensive prowess, Vinny is stronger, bigger, more physical, better goal scorer. They're both top 5. There isn't a huge difference, this is like comparing Eric Lindros and Sergei Fedorov in 93-95. You wouldn't -- besides saying that they were both top 5.

How is Vinny the better goal scorer right now? Z finished ahead of Vinny this past season in goals (3) while Vinny holds the average goal edge the past 3 years by 4 per. Z also, played 63 games last year compared to Vinny's 82. While Z scored 33, Vinny had his best year ever scoring 52. The past year, and the year before the last Z outscored him in the goal department. If Z plays a full season last year the average probably would've been dead-even.

Don't get me wrong, this is absolutely no knock on Vinnny. The guy is all-world and deserves to be paid as a top-5 in the game, but in a round-about way I'm agreeing with you that there isn't too much difference in Z and Vinny aside from Z's vastly superior defensive game and Vinny's size.

[EUROCOP 0]

Zetterberg shouldn't get a penny more than Datsyuk. There's no argument whatsoever.

[Anomalously 0]

That's not true Anom. The Wings will have Z and Lids under large contracts for atleast the 2009/2010 season and will be able to ice a very competitive team that season. After that, if Lids does decide to hang them up, Kenny will absolutely spend atleast a good amount of what would have been Lids' $7.45 million on a top Dman either via a trade or most likely free agency.

To say that the Wings defense will look like what you suggested isn't very accurate IMO.

I said that was the defense in two years, as in, not 08-09, not 09-10 -- you said we're going to have Lidstrom under contract "for atleast the 09-10 season," which is exactly what I said. I also said there's a possibility that Lidstrom could play on ("pull a Chelios," playing past 40), so it's not like I set date certain.

And you may think the Wings are going to pick up an awesome defenseman when he retires, but at what cost? Assuming Lecavalier re-signs for the way long-term, the Lightning have 5 players signed for 10-11 (Lecavalier, Boyle, St. Louis, Helenius, Quick). I wasn't predicting doom for the Wings -- I said nobody is right now.

I was making these points: that we were spoiled with Lidstrom -- our defensive depth looks way better than it is because Lidstrom is the guy playing half of the game, rather than Rafalski or Kronwall. And that this signing doesn't tie the hands of the Lightning, which had been asserted, because I feel Lecavalier is worth it, based on his consistently high level of play, quality of minutes, lack of injuries, etc.

We will have a large amount of cash open up when Lidstrom retires, but there won't be a Lidstrom on the market -- he'll have retired. There might be a number one defenseman, but Campbell is looking for $8M now. A top-flight defenseman in two years could cost $9 or $10M.

[Opie 308]

Zetterberg shouldn't get a penny more than Datsyuk. There's no argument whatsoever.

Actually one very valid point is the financial changes in the league, at the time Dats contract was seen as an overpayment now do to salaries (you cannot look at this as a vacuum, you must take other players from other teams as comparison) it seems like the wings got him on the cheap. So one could say a valid argument is that due to inflation (lack of better term) Z should make more money, plus having a conn smythe trophy is another good arguing point.

[NeverForgetMac25 483]

I said that was the defense in two years, as in, not 08-09, not 09-10 -- you said we're going to have Lidstrom under contract "for atleast the 09-10 season," which is exactly what I said. I also said there's a possibility that Lidstrom could play on ("pull a Chelios," playing past 40), so it's not like I set date certain.

I never said you didn't. What I said was that after two seasons from now the Wings defense will not look like what you posted, because I believe Kenny will spend the bulk of the Lidstrom $7.45 million contract on a top Dman (a Rafalski-type).

And you may think the Wings are going to pick up an awesome defenseman when he retires, but at what cost?

See Above

I was making these points: that we were spoiled with Lidstrom -- our defensive depth looks way better than it is because Lidstrom is the guy playing half of the game, rather than Rafalski or Kronwall. And that this signing doesn't tie the hands of the Lightning, which had been asserted, because I feel Lecavalier is worth it, based on his consistently high level of play, quality of minutes, lack of injuries, etc.

We will have a large amount of cash open up when Lidstrom retires, but there won't be a Lidstrom on the market -- he'll have retired. There might be a number one defenseman, but Campbell is looking for $8M now. A top-flight defenseman in two years could cost $9 or $10M.

Agreed, but the Wings' current D depth without Lidstrom still blows TB's out of the water, and it will even when Lids retires when (not if) Kenny spends the bulk of Lidstrom's old salary on a new Dman.

And that this signing doesn't tie the hands of the Lightning, which had been asserted, because I feel Lecavalier is worth it, based on his consistently high level of play, quality of minutes, lack of injuries, etc.

I'm absolutely not questioning that Vinny isn't worth the contract he just got. I'm questioning the way TB is spending their money up front.

We will have a large amount of cash open up when Lidstrom retires, but there won't be a Lidstrom on the market -- he'll have retired.

No one (including me) ever said there would be. There is no substitute for Lidstrom and I thought I made it blatantly clear in either this thread or another yesterday that when Lids retires it is going to be devastating to the Wings D. Sure they bring in a top Dman, but it won't be Lidstrom.

There might be a number one defenseman, but Campbell is looking for $8M now. A top-flight defenseman in two years could cost $9 or $10M.

If thats the case then the salary cap will have risen too, so your point is moot.

[EUROCOP 0]

Actually one very valid point is the financial changes in the league, at the time Dats contract was seen as an overpayment now do to salaries (you cannot look at this as a vacuum, you must take other players from other teams as comparison) it seems like the wings got him on the cheap. So one could say a valid argument is that due to inflation (lack of better term) Z should make more money, plus having a conn smythe trophy is another good arguing point.

Must I? I think a better comparison is what happens in house, ie Holland's past contracts. As someone above mentioned, Holland can say "the way we do things here is...". I thought that Z played marginally better than Dats. these playoffs and don't forget, Dats lost two points to the refs making the incorrect call on goalie interference. Pavel has won the Selke trophy, while once again being our leading scorer again this past regular season. So sorry, I don't think it's justified.

[Opie 308]

AH you don't think it is justified, yet I can make the argument!

Dats just won the Selke, yes, but he didn't win it just before his contract year, he won it after he signed his contract. Z is going into his contract year and just won the Conn Smythe, was tied for the lead in playoff points, and for all intense and purposes was second in voting for the Selke (He had the second most 1st place votes and the most second place votes, but Madden all but swept the third place votes and thus he had more total vote points).

I am not saying what will be given to him, I am telling you that there is an argument to be made, that he will get paid a substantial amount more than Dats.

Edited June 26, 2008 by Opie

[EUROCOP 0]

AH you don't think it is justified, yet I can make the argument!

Dats just won the Selke, yes, but he didn't win it just before his contract year, he won it after he signed his contract. Z is going into his contract year and just won the Conn Smythe, was tied for the lead in playoff points, and for all intense and purposes was second in voting for the Selke (He had the second most 1st place votes and the most second place votes, but Madden all but swept the third place votes and thus he had more total vote points).

I am not saying what will be given to him, I am telling you that there is an argument to be made, that he will get paid a substantial amount more than Dats.

Yes it's true Dats didn't win his award just prior to his contract but there's no stopping Holland from equating the two contracts now. He could say that Dats contract was fair the way it turned out and that perhaps Dats' contract had some room for player development and improvement factored in. They've both won major awards and were superstars in the playoffs. I think that this will be the type of angle Holland will use at bargaining. You watch.

[Opie 308]

Yes it's true Dats didn't win his award just prior to his contract but there's no stopping Holland from equating the two contracts now. He could say that Dats contract was fair the way it turned out and that perhaps Dats' contract had some room for player development and improvement factored in. They've both won major awards and were superstars in the playoffs. I think that this will be the type of angle Holland will use at bargaining. You watch.

You are missing my point, you said there was no argument whatsoever that Z will not get a penny more than D and I made more than one argument.