Ken Campbell: Expect Hossa to Stay

[omnipotent_hudler 0]

I know this is kind of

but I thought it was interesting that Ken Campbell over at thn thinks Hossa will stay beyond this year.

There must be times when Detroit Red Wings GM Ken Holland closes the door to his office, leans back in his chair and laughs uproariously at jokes only he gets.

Take his recent signing of Marian Hossa, for example. Because it was only for one year, there are people out there who believe this is a one-off; that Hossa will make his best run for a Stanley Cup before chasing riches somewhere else and Detroit simply won’t be able to make room for him under the salary cap along with their pantheon of superstars.

Poor, gullible slobs.

In a hockey world rife with uncertainty, you can take this one to the bank: if Hossa turns out to be a good fit with the Red Wings, he will be in Detroit beyond next season and for many more to come.

There is absolutely no way Holland makes this deal exclusively with the 2008-09 season in mind. When Holland makes a deal of any magnitude, it must serve two purposes –that is make the Red Wings a better team in the short-term and a better team in the long-term. And there is no way Holland would have made the deal if he hadn’t already figured out there’s a good chance he’ll be able to get Hossa in the fold on a multi-year deal after next season.

Holland already knows Hossa is ripe to take a hometown discount because if it had only been about the money, he would’ve never accepted the terms Holland presented. (Which, consequently, is the same deal he would have given Mats Sundin, which says a little something about Sundin’s real desire to play for a team under pressure to win, wouldn’t you say?)

By signing Hossa to this deal, Holland has already gained valuable insight into Hossa’s psyche and that being part of a program that is not only committed to winning, but to doing what it takes to win, is important to him. Holland knows in the end he’ll be able to get Hossa to agree to a long-term deal for money comparable to what Nicklas Lidstrom makes.

In fact, Holland learned a ton about Hossa when he hinted to Hossa he might be able to offer him more money, but said he’d have to call Lidstrom first to see whether it was all right with the captain that he was not the highest-paid player on the team. Hossa responded by saying not to worry about the call – that he’d happily accept the $7.4 million Lidstrom is making.

Nothing Holland does is without a purpose and by putting Hossa in the position of usurping the team’s top-paid player and watching how he responded, gave Holland a key psychological chip for future bargaining.

And Holland will fit Hossa under the salary cap simply because he can. Holland has long been a believer that in order to thrive under the cap system, you keep your core players under contract and fill in the rest of your cap with affordable players from within the system or affordable veterans from Europe or around the league who will take less money for a shot at the Stanley Cup.

Holland has long believed one-third of your roster can account for two-thirds of your cap. So let’s assume for a moment, the salary cap rises to $62 million for 2009-10, based on the increments in which it has risen since it was imposed.

Let’s also assume Hossa and Henrik Zetterberg agree to long-term deals worth $8 million each. Add in Pavel Datsyuk at $6.7 million and Johan Franzen at $3 million and you’ve got $25.7 million accounted for already. Lidstrom comes in a $7.4 million on the last year of his deal and is joined on defense by Brian Rafalski at $6 million, Brad Stuart at $3.75 million and Niklas Kronwall at $3 million, while No. 1 goalie Chris Osgood comes in at $1.4 million.

That’s $47.25 million for nine players, which is a little more than one-third of the roster. That leaves almost $15 million for 14 players, which will be difficult, but not impossible considering the core of the team is already under contract. The rest of the parts are interchangeable. They may have to trade one of their defensemen to make it work, but it can certainly be done with some creative thinking.

And the Red Wings have that in abundance. It helps, of course, that they always seem able to unearth players such as Darren Helm or Jonathan Ericsson, young serviceable guys who can make a tangible contribution and do so at bargain basement prices.

The Red Wings have grasped and understood the cap system better than any other team in the league and they have the ability to develop and find players who can supplement their core. That’s why Marian Hossa will be a Red Wing long beyond next season.

You can count on it.

[Guest Dump-N-Thump]

Its very possible he could stay.

Hopefully/Assuming.

Hudler,Sammy,Chelios,and Kopeckys - Contracts are off the books.

[Echolalia 2,961]

I think that article is silly.

So Holland would only sign a player if he benefits the short term and the long term team?

"Sorry Hossa. We can't keep you after this year, so we'll pass, but thanks anyway! That 1 year, 7.5M deal would've sent the media into a frenzy!"

[DatsMyWings13 4]

He has a logical approach to his reasoning, I hope he is correct.

[octopusonice 0]

Hossa has expressed a desire to be a Red Wing, so it's conceivable that he would stay here more than a year.

I just have to be careful not to get my hopes up too high only to have them crushed in the end.

[Booster313 138]

It's very possible, it depends on how much Z wants and how bad Hossa wants to stay. You also have to factor in Franzen's contract in there. Hopefully he won't chase $$$.

[Reilly 24]

All this, depeding of course, that that cap goes up, Hossa has a magnificent season, Zetterberg and Franzen don't opt for FA.

What a pointless article. We know Holland wants Hossa long-term. That's why he offered him a multi-year deal.

Edited July 7, 2008 by Reilly

[stillwater 186]

"Holland already knows Hossa is ripe to take a hometown discount because if it had only been about the money, he would’ve never accepted the terms Holland presented. (Which, consequently, is the same deal he would have given Mats Sundin, which says a little something about Sundin’s real desire to play for a team under pressure to win, wouldn’t you say?)"

This guy had me at hello until he wrote this, which is catagorically incorrect. No reason to read the rest if he can't get an important issue correct.

Holland didn't present this deal to Hossa, Hossa suggested it. At least that's what Ken Holland has stated publically.

[awingsincebirth 0]

I think that article is silly.

So Holland would only sign a player if he benefits the short term and the long term team?

"Sorry Hossa. We can't keep you after this year, so we'll pass, but thanks anyway! That 1 year, 7.5M deal would've sent the media into a frenzy!"

I was thinking much the same thing while I was reading it. I think that Holland knew that he had to jump on the opportunity when it presented itself. This was not like a trade or RFA situation in which the Wings had to sacrifice something in return. I think Holland would have made this deal go through even if Hossa said to him "I guarantee you that I will only be here for one year."

Nonetheless, I do think that it is possible that the scenario that he puts forward will actually present itself, bit it will hinge obviously on a number of other factors

Edited July 7, 2008 by awingsincebirth

[Majsheppard 203]

I think this is slightly oversimplification. We still don't know how Filpulla fits in, or if any of the "interchangable players" will blow up or fizzle out. Yes maybe he is willing to put these deals together, and it could happen I just wouldn't bet on it.

Franzen is prob going to get at least 4 million if he has any sort of a year, so that 3 million is absurd. Assuming the cap will continue to rise is not wise either. Truth is, Holland will do what he can for the team, and it really is too soon to make any predictions for next year.

[dicksmack 33]

He has a logical approach to his reasoning, I hope he is correct.

Poor gullible slob... I don't find it cogent at all.

[Guest Four]

I really hope Z will take 6.7M to match his duo partner as it is only fair. Hossa I believe would be willing to keep the same or even drop to 7M is he wins this year and enjoys it. That takes away about 2M of needed cap space. Hopefully Kenny has a system for next year planned out and he's laughing at our brainstorming xD

[b.shanafan14 733]

The hardest part is gauging what Zetterberg and Franzen sign for. Before the Hossa signing, I think we all thought Hank would sign for a bargain mirroring Datsyuk's $6.7 mil and depending on how Franzen follows up his season, he would take comparably less raise than he could get elsewhere to stay in Detroit. Will really be tough I think now that Hossa is at $7.4 mil to keep a player of Zetterberg's caliber down as low as Pav's huge discount, but if anyone is that kinda guy, its Hank. Should be interesting when it comes time to pay Hank and Mule just how committed they are to keeping the winning at any cost trend going in Detroit.

ON A SIDE NOTE: WE ARE SPOILED

Edited July 7, 2008 by b.shanafan14

[irishtemper14+25 11]

i just hope that hossa and z take the same contract for around 7.5

[Booster313 138]

There is no way that Hossa should make more than Zetterberg's new deal. It would send the wrong kind of message.

[T.Low 1,011]

He has a logical approach to his reasoning, I hope he is correct.

I'll put $ on it. I've had a hunch that this would be a one year test drive to see how everything fits.

[StevieY9802 6]

Its very possible he could stay.

Hopefully/Assuming.

Hudler,Sammy,Chelios,and Kopeckys - Contracts are off the books.

Two of those three will be probably. But why would you want Hudler gone after the playoffs he had? Not like he would be getting a huge raise. And Kopecky would be getting around 1mil at most I would think so I don't see the benefit of getting rid of a guy who is a 3rd or 4th liner who I thought had a good year until he got hurt.

There is no way that Hossa should make more than Zetterberg's new deal. It would send the wrong kind of message.

I agree. I wouldn't like that either. I still think it's a very long shot to resign him and the others but ya never know.

[thedisappearer 291]

Z and Hossa need to take the $6.7 Dats makes. Then this will work liek a charm!

[Guest Four]

There is no way that Hossa should make more than Zetterberg's new deal. It would send the wrong kind of message.

They could discuss them both changing to 6.7M contracts though since they end at the same time..

[Echolalia 2,961]

Z and Hossa need to take the $6.7 Dats makes. Then this will work liek a charm!

Tha'ts too sick for reality. Dats right now for 6.7 is a ridiculous steal. He could claim 8M in another hockey market (probably 12M in Toronto). Unfortunately with Zetterberg and Hossa, we can't pay them for 6 years for what their skill level was back when they were still developing like we did for Dats. Zetterberg I expect to get 7.5M, Hossa I have no friggen hope for, and Franzen's salary depends strongly on this season. I would expect somewhere in the 3-4M range.

Anyway, if it turns out that way, we'll be looking at

Lids 7.5

Dats 6.7

Cleary 2.5

Zetterberg 7.5

Franzen 3.5

Homer 2.25

Draper 1.65

Maltby .75

Lids 7.45

Rafalski 6.0

Stuart 3.75

Kronwall 3.25

Lilja 1.25

Lebda .85

Osgood 1.45

The total comes to 56.35, which puts us right up to the limit of this years cap, and these are just the players that we have signed through next year plus an estimated salary for Zetterberg and Franzen. All the other free agents between this year and next year are unsigned. If Hossa is going to stay here through next year, Holland will have to pull some serious magic out of his hat.

[Nineteen 0]

Tha'ts too sick for reality. Dats right now for 6.7 is a ridiculous steal. He could claim 8M in another hockey market (probably 12M in Toronto). Unfortunately with Zetterberg and Hossa, we can't pay them for 6 years for what their skill level was back when they were still developing like we did for Dats. Zetterberg I expect to get 7.5M, Hossa I have no friggen hope for, and Franzen's salary depends strongly on this season. I would expect somewhere in the 3-4M range.

Anyway, if it turns out that way, we'll be looking at

Lids 7.5

Dats 6.7

Cleary 2.5

Zetterberg 7.5

Franzen 3.5

Homer 2.25

Draper 1.65

Maltby .75

Lids 7.45

Rafalski 6.0

Stuart 3.75

Kronwall 3.25

Lilja 1.25

Lebda .85

Osgood 1.45

The total comes to 56.35, which puts us right up to the limit of this years cap, and these are just the players that we have signed through next year plus an estimated salary for Zetterberg and Franzen. All the other free agents between this year and next year are unsigned. If Hossa is going to stay here through next year, Holland will have to pull some serious magic out of his hat.

I don't think having two Lidstroms would be that bad, it would take a little sting out of losing Hossa.

Dats really is a steal, and it would be beyond belief to have either Hossa or Z take his salary long term, but even if they don't Holland could get them all under the cap with a little of his magic.

[Z and D for the C 712]

I'm putting my money on Hossa staying beyond a year.

[Nightfall 871]

This is all dependent on the cap going up. The cap can't go up forever thats for sure. There is part of me that wonders, with the economy in the crapper and gas prices going up, is next year the year when the cap goes down?

[Opie 308]

This is all dependent on the cap going up. The cap can't go up forever thats for sure. There is part of me that wonders, with the economy in the crapper and gas prices going up, is next year the year when the cap goes down?

No it is when the American economy goes back up that the cap will go back down. The reason, or one reason, that the cap goes up is revenue is up, because the Loony (sp) is at about the same value as the US dollar, players are paid in American Dollars, the exchange rate being near even means the 28% of revenue from Canadian teams is at a higher value because of the current exchange rate.

If the American Dollar goes up the Loony will not be worth as much American dollars and therefore the amount of revenue from canada will go down while the American amount will likely stay the same, unless the rise in economy brings millions more American fans to the game of hockey.

[T.Low 1,011]

No it is when the American economy goes back up that the cap will go back down. The reason, or one reason, that the cap goes up is revenue is up, because the Loony (sp) is at about the same value as the US dollar, players are paid in American Dollars, the exchange rate being near even means the 28% of revenue from Canadian teams is at a higher value because of the current exchange rate.

If the American Dollar goes up the Loony will not be worth as much American dollars and therefore the amount of revenue from canada will go down while the American amount will likely stay the same, unless the rise in economy brings millions more American fans to the game of hockey.

Bingo.

If you use the old 65 c US looney exchange, then thats a revenue increase of 35% for the Canadian teams without doing a thing. Its cyclical, so they have to know its not going to last forever.