Holland Admits the Obvious

[norrisnick 1]

*sigh*

The Wings currently have 22 players signed. The Wings are currently about $400k under the cap. Of the 22 players signed, the Wings have 13 forwards, 7 defensemen, and 2 goalies. They intend to carry 13-8-2. So they intend to have at least one more defenseman than currently signed. We know that Chris Chelios will be on the roster for somewhere between $475k and $850k. Kyle Quincey will also be signed for a two year deal, likely a league minimum deal with a cap hit of $483k just like Meech. So the Wings will be adding a cap hit between $958k and $1.333m to the current figure, pushing them over the cap by between $558k and 933k.

This 'overage' would be for a 24 player roster with 9 defensemen, so they would have to remove one player to reach the maximum 23-man roster limit and one defenseman to reach the desired 8 defensemen. Lilja and possibly Lebda are the only defensemen currently making enough to clear the cap space who are not top-four defensemen on the Wings. If Chelios signs for $567k or higher, Lilja is the only defenseman who can be moved to clear the cap space without an additional player being moved.

And NN...Chelios was on the first PK unit last season, Lilja was on the second with Kronwall. Quincey, Stuart, and Rafalski are also very capable penalty killers. Lilja's importance to the PK diminished greatly with the acquisition of Stuart; a top-four defenseman with puck skills who is defensively quite capable. Had the Wings not retained Stuart, the Lilja moving discussion would not exist...but the Wings would also not have any cap trouble. The Wings have cap trouble because they kept Lilja as insurance in case Stuart left; not because he himself was particularly valuable with Stuart in town. Having Lilja is like Bob Essensa in the 1995 season. He's capable, nice to have around if you need him, and can do the job if he has to...but you already have a bunch of much better options in front of him. Lilja is a solid 3rd pairing defenseman, and that's all he'll ever be. Which is fine, but his salary and age plus the cap crunch and defensive logjam mean he is probably the one being shipped out of town. He is competing for a roster spot with a bunch of guys who have realistic top four potential. The only other guy competing for a spot who doesn't have realistic top-four potential is Lebda; and Lebda's much younger and cheaper, and more likely to be a top-four type guy at some point in his career. Lilja will never be a top-four level defenseman.

I didn't say he played the 2nd most on the PK. I said he is our 2nd best PK defenseman.

The only guy Lilly is competing with that has realistic top 4 potential is Ericsson and he, like Jimmy and Helm, is going to GR even if he ends up playing better than the guys who will populate the 3rd pairing.

If Lebda is a top 4 guy, his team is going nowhere. He simply doesn't do anything well. He's fast. That's it. He isn't better defensive or offensively than any of our other defensive options.

[Dabura 12,232]

And if under it could be Lebda....

We now know Chelios will be getting something "slightly less" than 850. Anyone who thought he would get less than 560 was dreaming.

I hear what you're saying about Lilja, NN, but for every one of his positive points, there's a negative one. And let's not forget: Kenny himself said in no uncertain terms that Lilja was brought back to the fold as Stuart insurance, not because he's "vital to the success of the PK," or "a tremendous shot-blocker," or "a viking warrior," etc. Stuart re-signed, and there's currently a logjam on the back end and a cap issue. Unless Kenny was lying about Lilja being Stuart insurance, or was being honest and has simply had a big change of heart, I'd expect Lilja to get serious attention as the potential odd-man-out at training camp -- especially with Chelios coming back at close to 850.

Sammy has done nothing but step up when called upon, putting up good numbers on the second line when he is, in fact, a checking-line center by make. Now he's being bumped down to the line he's supposed to be on, one that is, largely thanks to him, looking more like a secondary scoring line than a checking line. Which is great, and is exactly the kind of depth this organization is all about. I'm not terribly fond of Lebda, but he's a good value at 650. Lilja is slated to get paid 1.25 to be a #7/#8 guy and to serve as insurance should Stuart (who has re-signed) not re-sign. He'll help the PK -- when he's not a million-dollar healthy scratch.

[Opie 308]

We now know Chelios will be getting something "slightly less" than 850. Anyone who thought he would get less than 560 was dreaming.

I hear what you're saying about Lilja, NN, but for every one of his positive points, there's a negative one. And let's not forget: Kenny himself said in no uncertain terms that Lilja was brought back to the fold as Stuart insurance, not because he's "vital to the success of the PK," or "a tremendous shot-blocker," or "a viking warrior," etc. Stuart re-signed, and there's currently a logjam on the back end and a cap issue. Unless Kenny was lying about Lilja being Stuart insurance, or was being honest and has simply had a big change of heart, I'd expect Lilja to get serious attention as the potential odd-man-out at training camp -- especially with Chelios coming back at close to 850.

Sammy has done nothing but step up when called upon, putting up good numbers on the second line when he is, in fact, a checking-line center by make. Now he's being bumped down to the line he's supposed to be on, one that is, largely thanks to him, looking more like a secondary scoring line than a checking line. Which is great, and is exactly the kind of depth this organization is all about. I'm not terribly fond of Lebda, but he's a good value at 650. Lilja is slated to get paid 1.25 to be a #7/#8 guy and to serve as insurance should Stuart (who has re-signed) not re-sign. He'll help the PK -- when he's not a million-dollar healthy scratch.

This post made me do some thinking and I am wondering, does anyone here think Holland said to Lilja, this is what we will pay you, however; if Stuart re-signs you will be the odd man out.

I mean Holland (minus the Feds issue) has been pretty upfront with everyone and let them know his plans, I bet even J-ho knows what the long term (3-4 year) plan is for him in this org.

IF that conversation between Lilja and Holland did in fact happen I would not be surprised to see Lilja traded, but for right I see Lilja staying, but you bring up an interesting point and a thought provoking one at that!!

[egroen 384]

Right now Lilja is the #5 or #6. Wouldn't you agree?

I would like to see him traded but a lot has to happen for it to unfold that way --

1) He has to be outplayed by at least 2 of Lebda/Meech/Chelios/Quincey

2) Holland has to be willing to "sign & trade", which he does not have a history of doing, and we are talking about someone who gave a hefty hometown discount as well

EDIT: Or the theory Holland was up front with him re: the whole Stuart thing. That would be awfully conveniant, but why then would Lilja give such a nice discount?

Edited September 3, 2008 by egroen

[Dabura 12,232]

You're right, egroen -- #6 is more fair.

About the Stuart thing...I doubt a formal "deal" was put in place. Most likely, Kenny sat down with him and said something to the effect of "If you come back, you need to come back for *x amount* and you need to be open to and prepared for the possibility that you will be moved if *such and such a thing* happens." Lilja probably agreed because -- well, s***, it's the Detroit Red Wings. Granted, that's all speculation. But for Kenny to have come out and said straight-up that Lilja was signed in anticipation of Start potentially walking...I'd be willing to bet the two did some talking. That's partially why I don't think Lilja necessarily has to be thoroughly outplayed in training camp in order to be shipped.

But ultimately: whatever happens, happens. If Lilja stays, I won't flip out, because he does bring positive assets to the table. But I feel there are smarter options.

[egroen 384]

Ultimately, only one or maybe two of Chelios/Lilja/Lebda/Meech/Quincey will be here for the next 2-3 years. Eriksson, Kindl and Pyett are all looming, with Smith and a few others getting closer as well.

I hope it is Chelios

[russianswede919293 95]

I am basing all my figures off the team I expect to have be the 23 players. and the salary figures on nhlnumbers.com.

Forwards (13)- Hossa (7.4), Datsyuk (6.7), Filppula (3.0), Cleary (2.8), Zetterberg (2.65), Holmstrom (2.25), Draper (1.583), Samuelsson (1.2), Hudler (1.015), Franzen (0.942), Maltby (0.883), Kopecky (0.5), Downey Or McCarty (0.575)

Total Hit: 31.498

Defense (8)-Lidstrom (7.45), Rafalski (6.0), Stuart (3.75) Kronwall (3) Lilja (1.25) Lebda (0.65) Chelios (lets assume 0.7) Quincey (lets assume 0.65 like Lebda)

Total: 23.45

Goalie (2)-Osgood (1.417) Conklin (0.75)

Total: 2.167

Grand Total: 57.115

With an Upper Cap Hit of 56.7, that means with my ASSUMED Chelios and Quincey contracts only trading Meech is not enough. SO...there will either be 2 trades, my numbers are assumed too high, or a higher paid player will be traded.

Only time will tell

[Guest GordieSid&Ted]

I am basing all my figures off the team I expect to have be the 23 players. and the salary figures on nhlnumbers.com.

Forwards (13)- Hossa (7.4), Datsyuk (6.7), Filppula (3.0), Cleary (2.8), Zetterberg (2.65), Holmstrom (2.25), Draper (1.583), Samuelsson (1.2), Hudler (1.015), Franzen (0.942), Maltby (0.883), Kopecky (0.5), Downey Or McCarty (0.575)

Total Hit: 31.498

Defense (8)-Lidstrom (7.45), Rafalski (6.0), Stuart (3.75) Kronwall (3) Lilja (1.25) Lebda (0.65) Chelios (lets assume 0.7) Quincey (lets assume 0.65 like Lebda)

Total: 23.45

Goalie (2)-Osgood (1.417) Conklin (0.75)

Total: 2.167

Grand Total: 57.115

With an Upper Cap Hit of 56.7, that means with my ASSUMED Chelios and Quincey contracts only trading Meech is not enough. SO...there will either be 2 trades, my numbers are assumed too high, or a higher paid player will be traded.

Only time will tell

I love Chelios, one of my idols growing up. I learned how to (mis) behave as a defenseman by watching that ******* when he played for the Hawks. I hated him but I loved his game.

That being said, I'm ready for him and Lilja to go elsewhere. And i'm a Lilja apologist. I'm just ready for younger, fresher meat. I like Ericsson b/c he's big and has alot of upside. I like Quincey b/c he looks like he will be more physical than Lilja. I'm pretty much ready for some roster turnover on the backend. Especially since our top 4 is so damned good already.

[eva unit zero 271]

Alright. Chelios and Quincey have been signed...so we can now take a good hard look at the numbers.

The Wings have 13 forwards, 9 defensemen, and 2 goaltenders signed who cannot be sent down without clearing waivers. Their total cap hit is $57,548,333. So the Wings are $848,333 over the cap, and one skater over the roster limit.

The Wings intend to carry 13-8-2; so the simplest move that can be made is to move one defenseman who makes at least $850k. This rules out Chelios, Lebda, Meech, and Quincey as they do not make enough. The top four are unlikely to be moved in a salary dump. Leaving Andreas Lilja.

Also of note: Andreas Lilja's $1.25m cap hit is exactly equal to the cap hit of Chris Chelios and Kyle Quincey combined...as if this is what Ken Holland has in mind as well.

[egroen 384]

With Holland's comments about having to shave $300-400k from the roster, I think he is literally trying to keep it under wraps that it is already pre-determined Lilja is gone.

I wonder what Lilja's value is -- he has a great contract, hits, blocks shots, fights and can be a 1st option PK guy as well as a fill-in on even the 1st line with regular 2nd, 3rd line duties. I hope he fetches a 2nd round pick.

The only other possible way to do it is if he trades Samuelsson or Hudler along with one of Meech/Quincey/Lebda -- which strikes me as less than wise.

Edited September 11, 2008 by egroen

[Doc Holiday 0]

You can't possibly trade this guy.

[eva unit zero 271]

With Holland's comments about having to shave $300-400k from the roster, I think he is literally trying to keep it under wraps that it is already pre-determined Lilja is gone.

I wonder what Lilja's value is -- he has a great contract, hits, blocks shots, fights and can be a 1st option PK guy as well as a fill-in on even the 1st line with regular 2nd, 3rd line duties. I hope he fetches a 2nd round pick.

The only other possible way to do it is if he trades Samuelsson or Hudler along with one of Meech/Quincey/Lebda -- which strikes me as less than wise.

I like Lilja. I think he is a solid stay at home defenseman who gets way too much flak. But let's look at this objectively. Kyle Quincey is the most similar to Lilja in terms of playing style, so let's assume that Lilja staying means Quincey goes.

Moving out Quincey leaves the team $350k above the cap. So the Wings need to move out another player who is at least that far above the player replacing him. The league minimum is $475k. Samuelsson and Hudler would suffice, although that leaves less cap space than just moving Lilja.

If it's Samuelsson/Quincey...

The Wings have less free cap space, and have given up in a salary dump a top-six offensive forward who is solid defensively and a future top-four defenseman to retain a career third-pairing defenseman who is currently not significantly better than the defenseman they gave up despite being ten years older.

If it's Hudler/Quincey...

The Wings have much less cap space, and have given up in a salary dump a top-six offensive forward who is good defensively and a future top-four defenseman to retain a career third-pairing defenseman who is currently not significantly better than the defenseman they gave up despite being ten years older. Both players given up are under 25.

If it's Lilja...

The Wings have given up a career third-pairing defenseman in his 30s who was competing for a spot on the third pair with a bunch of 20-25 year olds who made less than half his salary and have higher potential.

[Guest mindfly]

With Holland's comments about having to shave $300-400k from the roster, I think he is literally trying to keep it under wraps that it is already pre-determined Lilja is gone.

I wonder what Lilja's value is -- he has a great contract, hits, blocks shots, fights and can be a 1st option PK guy as well as a fill-in on even the 1st line with regular 2nd, 3rd line duties. I hope he fetches a 2nd round pick.

The only other possible way to do it is if he trades Samuelsson or Hudler along with one of Meech/Quincey/Lebda -- which strikes me as less than wise.

At best Lilja is worth a 4th rounder, no way a 2nd round. as far as i know, bolts recieved a 3rd rounder for boyle to sharks.. and lilja is not exactly boyle quality.

[egroen 384]

At best Lilja is worth a 4th rounder, no way a 2nd round. as far as i know, bolts recieved a 3rd rounder for boyle to sharks.. and lilja is not exactly boyle quality.

It's the value -- Lilja is unbelievably cheap compared to other players of his ability (and is signed to it for two years)... that alone should make him worth more than a 4th round pick.

Boyle was almost a salary dump and had a hefty price tag attached.

I agree Eva --> Lilja alone makes the most sense. Out of all the options, Lilja + Samuelsson is probably the 2nd most likely option as I could see Holland being uncomfortable with so little of a cap cushion. I hope Samy stays (this year).

Edited September 11, 2008 by egroen

[toby91_ca 620]

Alright. Chelios and Quincey have been signed...so we can now take a good hard look at the numbers.

The Wings have 13 forwards, 9 defensemen, and 2 goaltenders signed who cannot be sent down without clearing waivers. Their total cap hit is $57,548,333. So the Wings are $848,333 over the cap, and one skater over the roster limit.

The Wings intend to carry 13-8-2; so the simplest move that can be made is to move one defenseman who makes at least $850k. This rules out Chelios, Lebda, Meech, and Quincey as they do not make enough. The top four are unlikely to be moved in a salary dump. Leaving Andreas Lilja.

Also of note: Andreas Lilja's $1.25m cap hit is exactly equal to the cap hit of Chris Chelios and Kyle Quincey combined...as if this is what Ken Holland has in mind as well.

How did you come up with $57,548,333? For the 13 forwards, 9 defensemen and 2 goalies, I have $57,915,000, meaning they would have to shave off $1.215 million.

Maybe I'm off due to rounding, but $400k is a bit much.

[eva unit zero 271]

How did you come up with $57,548,333? For the 13 forwards, 9 defensemen and 2 goalies, I have $57,915,000, meaning they would have to shave off $1.215 million.

Maybe I'm off due to rounding, but $400k is a bit much.

I added the cap hits of Quincey and Chelios to the 22 players whose cap hits are listed here as 'on the roster' players. If those values are incorrect, then my values also, of course, would be.

[toby91_ca 620]

Are you counting Ericsson's salary?

Yes, but I'm also missing Meech, who's salary is $425k less, so I guess that is the main difference. Although, doesn't the total look more like $58.3 million ($1.6 million over + 2 roster spots over). I guess the assumption is that Ericsson will not be on the roster, so his cap hit is ignored.

[eva unit zero 271]

Yes, but I'm also missing Meech, who's salary is $425k less, so I guess that is the main difference. Although, doesn't the total look more like $58.3 million ($1.6 million over + 2 roster spots over). I guess the assumption is that Ericsson will not be on the roster, so his cap hit is ignored.

Are you counting cap hits or salary?

Because Meech has a two year deal that has him making the league minimum this year and next; but the league minimum goes up so his cap hit is $483k, not $475k. If you are counting salary you will also notice differences with Franzen, Filppula, Maltby, Hudler, Draper, Zetterberg, Cleary, Osgood, and Kopecky.

[toby91_ca 620]

I added the cap hits of Quincey and Chelios to the 22 players whose cap hits are listed here as 'on the roster' players. If those values are incorrect, then my values also, of course, would be.

Figured it out, I had included Ericsson, but not Meech (difference of $417k) and I also had Hossa at $7.4 million vs. your number of $7.45 million.

[toby91_ca 620]

Are you counting cap hits or salary?

Because Meech has a two year deal that has him making the league minimum this year and next; but the league minimum goes up so his cap hit is $483k, not $475k. If you are counting salary you will also notice differences with Franzen, Filppula, Maltby, Hudler, Draper, Zetterberg, Cleary, Osgood, and Kopecky.

I was counting cap hits, but screwed up wiht Meech, he wasn't on my list to begin with, so I then just checked his salary for the upcoming season ($475k), I later realized the $500k the followed year.

[Dabura 12,232]

Also of note: Andreas Lilja's $1.25m cap hit is exactly equal to the cap hit of Chris Chelios and Kyle Quincey combined...as if this is what Ken Holland has in mind as well.

Curiouser and curiouser...

[eva unit zero 271]

Ok. McCarty has signed for $500k.

The Wings now have 25 players who are not waiver-exempt and the total cap hits of those players puts them about $1.35m over the cap. They will be dropping one forward and one defenseman from the group to reach the magic makeup of 13-8-2. McCarty or Downey will likely be the forward, with the TC loser being waived and sent to Grand Rapids. This will probably be McCarty. So that puts us back where we were; 24 players and $850k over the cap, needing to drop a defenseman.

But there is the small chance that the forward moved could be someone else; I doubt it as Holland has stated the Wings had been looking to add a top-six forward in the offseason before they added Hossa. The most logical forward to move would be Samuelsson, as nobody else moves enough cap space without creating a more significant hole. Samuelsson himself even creates a fairly significant hole, as the Wings don't really have anyone they can simply plug into his spot and still use the third line the way they had intended; as an offensively capable checking line.

So expect the Wings to ship Lilja out by himself sometime within the next couple of weeks; likely to an Eastern Conference team looking for a good solid defensive defenseman.

[Heaton 1]

So expect the Wings to ship Lilja out by himself sometime within the next couple of weeks; likely to an Eastern Conference team looking for a good solid defensive defenseman.

Eh, not so fast. While I think Holland and co. have a general idea of what they're going to do, if Lilja is noticeably better than some of the other guys trying to take his role I would expect Lilja to stay and other arrangements be made for the guys who aren't up to snuff.

[eva unit zero 271]

Eh, not so fast. While I think Holland and co. have a general idea of what they're going to do, if Lilja is noticeably better than some of the other guys trying to take his role I would expect Lilja to stay and other arrangements be made for the guys who aren't up to snuff.

The problem is...other arrangements would have to involve a forward. That forward has to be Sammy or someone more expensive than Sammy. Otherwise, the Wings are still over the cap.

So, what exactly do you suggest that hurts the team less than just dropping Lilja, even if Lilja outplays Quincey/Meech/Lebda?

I will give you a hint...there is no player or combination of players the Wings can get rid of who clears enough cap space that is less important than just clearing Lilja.

The Wings have two problems; they are $850k over the cap and one defenseman over the roster limit, assuming McCarty is headed to GR. Trading Lilja for picks/prospects or waiving him solves both issues. There is no other defenseman outside the top four who can be removed who does so. If you remove Chelios and Lebda and keep McCarty on the roster, that would solve the cap issues and roster space while keeping Lilja...but it would be a 14-7-2 roster; Holland has indicated he intends to go with 13-8-2.

If the Wings trade Maltby and Lebda and keep McCarty, that would solve the issue also.

Regardless, Lilja is the most obvious answer and the most likely answer.

[Scotty 0]

:idea: I've got and idea! Let's trade Lilja!!! He doesn't score and when the fool tries to fight and always gets the crap kicked out of him. And he takes stupid penalties.