toby91_ca

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toby91_ca last won the day on June 5 2013

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About toby91_ca

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  1. toby91_ca

    2019 or 2020?

    No, I'm in Canada, from Nova Scotia, but live in Toronto now. Perhaps there is more buzz in eastern Canada or perhaps its because I don't tend to pay much attention to junior hockey anymore outside of the World Juniors. I just figured if there was that much hype, I would have heard more about him (e.g. I heard a lot about McDavid coming up...from when he was about 15). As someone mentioned, I think a lot of the comparison seems to come from him joining the same junior team.
  2. toby91_ca

    2019 or 2020?

    I honestly hadn't really heard much about Lafreniere until now, so I certainly haven't heard about him being compared to Crosby.....where is that coming from? I watched the video above and the only real link they made was the fact that he's a potential 1st overall pick coming from the QMJHL, then a comment that he has a desire to always get better. There was no indication at all that they thought he could be as good of a player as Crosby (they didn't suggest otherwise, but never got into that conversation). I checked the highlights and nothing stood out too much (if you compare that to Crosby's highlights from junior) and if you just look at stats, it's not even close.
  3. toby91_ca

    Ovechkin to 1,000 Goals?

    Depends on what he did at 35, 36 and 37....is he trending down, etc. But, I'd say the odds are still against him at that point as you'd still need to score more than 30 goals a year for another 3 years (to 40 years old). I'm not saying he won't do it, I just think the odds are against him. Very, very, very few players play until they are 40 (I'd bet the %age is extremely low). Combine that with needing to score at a high rate at that advanced age. I'll say it again, perhaps in a different way. Do I think it's an unreasonable thought that he can surpass Gretzky's goal total? No, not at all, if he stays healthy and plays long enough, he probably can. I just think there are a few odds that do not go in his favor so I'm on the side of guessing he won't get there. In terms of 1,000 goals, I think that's obviously more unlikely. This is why I'm saying no one can be right....the person that thinks he can get there won't be right if he does and the person that thinks he won't get there won't be right if he doesn't. EDIT: Perhaps something I haven't been thinking about is how he scores his goals and how this might be going in his favor. It's almost entirely from shooting from a spot on the ice (standing still)...perhaps that's a slower diminishing skill than others (speed for example). Haven't given it much more thought than that though.
  4. toby91_ca

    Ovechkin to 1,000 Goals?

    Of course his goal per game rate is better than everyone on the list above him. He hasn't finished his career yet. His goal per game pace over the course of his career will come down, that is 99.99% fact. Gretzy's was 0.78 per game at 30 years old (Ovechkin - 0.62). Also, injuries are far more likely as players age, that is fact as well. Father time is unbeaten, the question is whether he can fight him off long enough. There's not really much you can argue at this point in time. The crappy thing about these arguments is that no one can be proven right or wrong in the end.
  5. toby91_ca

    Mark Stone

    Nylander got $6.9M avg per....big money this year ($16M I think)...but Stone has performed better so far and has more of a track record. I totally get looking at historical stats (especially for a guy that has been in the league for 10 years), but Stone is 26 and GM's always pay for potential. That's why you often see, including me, complain about how much a player got and no way he deserves it.....a lot of times that holds true and a lot of times the player develops further and outperforms the contract. Stone seems to have gotten better and better every year. He had an injury shortened season last year and only played 58 games...his pace was 87pts though I believe and he's currently on pace for 90pts. If that happens, he'll get big dollars as a UFA....that's the other data point here......GM's always overpay for UFA's, its just the way it is, which is why you also see guys get a little bit more in longer deals at younger ages so the teams can buy up some of their UFA years. All that said, I wouldn't want to give him $10M, or the players suggested it would take to get him, I just don't think it's far fetched to think that would be the price tag.
  6. toby91_ca

    Ovechkin to 1,000 Goals?

    Ovechkin would need to score 287 goals after reaching 33 years of age, not 270, but that doesn't really change what I've dug up. I haven't done an exhaustive search, but pretty confident in saying I think only 1 player in history has scored more than that after the age of 33 and that's Howe (scored 332). Next closest are Selanne at 248 and Jagr at 229. Hull and Messier scored just over 200 and I don't think anyone else had more than 200. Gretzky had 91....he was not the same after his back injury at age of 30. So, is it doable? Absolutely, but I'm still in the camp that thinks the odds are on the side of not doing it and it's tough to move off of that based on anything done right now over a very small stretch of games. If he puts up a monster total this year, odds will move of course.....we'll see. As someone suggested, maybe he wants to play as long as it takes to beat the record. I can see that, but I also don't know him and I also know it takes more than just a player wanting to keep playing to actually have him keep playing.
  7. toby91_ca

    I Love Larkin

    I get it.....looking at pace is okay, I do it quickly from time to time, but obviously not after 10 games or something absurd like that. Comparing to the last time someone on the team had 31 goals being in the 2008/09 season struck me as taking it a bit too seriously though.....especially when we are talking about at a point in time when he currently has 12 goals. Don't get me wrong, I'm not throwing up all over it, just way more premature to start comparing for me.
  8. toby91_ca

    I Love Larkin

    I'd prefer to wait until end of year before looking at stats and comparing against the last 10+ years of Wings' history, but if we really need to extrapolate, can we at least waiting until the half-way (41 game) mark?
  9. toby91_ca

    Ovechkin to 1,000 Goals?

    But Gretzky had 829 goals by the time he was 35. Ovi's scoring pace this season has nothing to do with whether he'll get there or not....it's all about how he keeps up once he starts getting into his mid to late 30s.
  10. toby91_ca

    In Praise of Tyler Bertuzzi

    Can't say it wasn't deserving...what was he thinking? I get grabbing the guys stick, it's hard for guys to resist doing that....but to take your glove off and uppercut the guy to the head from the bench? To those suggesting the league is getting soft.....come on....this was never and should never be ok. I'll save the arguments about league going soft for another day, but it's a very easy comment for someone that only watches the games and doesn't have to worry about being crippled later in life from the game.
  11. toby91_ca

    2019-2020 Letters

    Will he still be on the team?
  12. toby91_ca

    So I gotta ask...

    It's very, very rare to have certainty over any prospect at 18 years old. How many times can you think of where the #1 pick is a guaranteed future star? Going back through the years and looking at drafts doesn't answer that question. So, I never like the tanking option.....but if there is a guaranteed star there....makes me think about it more.
  13. toby91_ca

    Rumors Thread

    He wants $8M (rumored)
  14. toby91_ca

    Who Do You Want To Play First In The Playoffs?

    After they get their first win against a team currently in a theoretical playoff position....then, and only then, will I start appropriate street measurements for the parade route.
  15. The current standings format is helping to keep the Wings out of last place overall...so it has that going for it