Goal scoring.

[Richdg 267]

I hope the links will work. If not I will try to snip and post the charts. A few years ago I read that 77% of all goals scored in the NHL are scored from within 15ft of the goal. I would think that is still true. The area of the ice we don't go to. Let me put up some heat charts of the RW's vs the NHL scoring leaders over the last 3 years. All the red dots are goals scored.

2015/16:

https://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/icetrack/?r1Id=4962&r1Year=2015.1&r1eventType='GOAL'&r1type=2&r1strength=EV&r2Id=4958&r2Year=2015.1&r2eventType='GOAL'&r2type=2&r2strength=EV

That link should take you to the RW vs the Stars at even strength during the regular season. We had 73 goals the Stars had 101. We took 902 shots the Stars took 1048 (2 per game more). Some of the more interesting shot stats are we rely heavily on snap shots vs slap shots and wrist shots. we also have a really low number of tip-in shots.

2014/15:

https://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/icetrack/?r1Id=4973&r1Year=2014.1&r1eventType='GOAL'&r1type=2&r1strength=EV&r2Id=4958&r2Year=2014.1&r2eventType='GOAL'&r2type=2&r2strength=EV#2

That link should compare the RW's to the Lightening at even strength during the regular season. Again we were outscored and outshoot badly. We took a low amount of tip-in shots and had far more snap shots than the league leaders.

2013/14:

https://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/icetrack/?r1Id=4978&r1Year=2013.1&r1eventType='GOAL'&r1type=2&r1strength=EV&r2Id=4958&r2Year=2013.1&r2eventType='GOAL'&r2type=2&r2strength=EV#2

This year the Ducks were the top scoring team. Again we are outshot and out scored. Once again we have a much lower number of tip-in shots and too many snap shots.

If these links work it shows pretty clearly we don't go to the slot/front of the net enough and score. That is were goals come from. We don't tip-in enough and we rely far to much on taking the much weaker snap shots over the more powerful slap/wrist shots.

 

PS Of course it didn't work. Was to late last night to fix, so will do it later tonight. In the mean time, if you go to the link then find the other drop down box that says "compare to" scroll down to the Red Wings and it will pop up.

Edited December 12, 2016 by Richdg

[BobL 28]

So...

I'm not entirely sure the data supports what you are saying...

Comparing teams based on last year (because that's the closest representation of the current team/system that it can provide), I see the data a little differently... 

Average shot distance: Wings are at 31.79ft - Tamp is 36.3ft, Washington was at 34.24ft, Pittsburgh at 32.73ft.  So we aren't shooting from further out than other teams that turned in a better GF count.

I think you have to look at both tip ins and deflections to get a better picture of net front performance, and while tip ins are low, deflections are high for the wings. When I look at the heat map for goals, I show the Wings scoring from net front more often than Tampa is scoring (proportionally) from net front - if anything Tampa is scoring from the high slot more often.  Tampa has 57 tip-in/deflection goals to 61 from the red wings over a similar number of (all strength) goals  (96 TBL v 95 DET).  Add in wrap arounds (which are aggressive, at the net types of goals as well), and you get 66 TBL v 76 DET.

Looking at PIT/WSH, they do seem to score from right in close more than DET does.  Certainly all of these graphs reinforce that you score from in close.

I think an interesting team to look at in comparison there is the Rangers - they had a great shooting percentage for the available data (which, interestingly enough creates some parity in overall goals examined due to the partial nature of the 15/16 data).  10.43%.  They had an enormous # of tip-ins (56 tip ins, for 50% of goals scored).  Their 'in close' goals (deflections/wrap arounds/tip ins) is at 81, so 73% of goals scored... but those same categories for the Wings are at 80%.  Anyway... look at the heat charts for shots between NYR and DET there, and they are incredibly similar.

The snap shot thing is interesting, and it reinforces the idea in my head that TBL created more high quality chances with time and space, whereas DET was pressured and had to take a quick snap shot more often - this would be my impression of the eye test as well - when the Wings put a puck on net, it is often a low quality chance under pressure from the opposing D... which a person might associate back to low quality first passes from our D, and maybe issues with positioning from the team as a whole - i.e. not getting a puck to a guy in a spot where he has the time and space to create a high quality chance either for himself, or for a teammate.  My impression is that with so many fast forwards who should be able to enhance their time and space with speed vs. the opposition, the fault is even more likely to fall on first passes, D, and positional shortcomings (which a guy might lay at the feet of the coaching staff...)

Your links were certainly interesting... thanks for sharing.

[joesuffP 1,746]

The defense can't shoot and the PP looks like it will end worst in the league. That will do it

The wings try and play down low and score ugly but the forwards are too weak and frail to crash and bang. It would be a huge help if the defense could get pucks on net. It's like playing 3 on 5 in the offensive zone. The defensemen are just there

[toby91_ca 620]

Maybe I'm over simplifying, but I don't get why we need complicated stats on this.  Isn't it obvious that the vast majority of goals will be scored from a very short distance?  It isn't the 70s or 80s anymore, you can't score on an NHL goalie from far out unless they can't see the puck.  This is both due to evolution of the position and how they cover the in addition to equipment.  The only goals going in from the point, for example, are deflections (their will be the rare one slipping through of course).  Those deflections should be included in the group of goals scored from short distance.  The other way to get a shot in from the point is via screening the goalie....which is what everyone has been trying their best to do for years now....goalies will normally stop the pucks if they can see them.