Nashville's days appear numbered

[Hank 0]

Hank, let's not get carried away here. There's no point going to the opposite extreme and just throwing junk into a post.

Let's examine the Nashville market please.

The capacity of the Sommet Center (newly named two months ago, pronounced so-may) is 17,113. This past season (our third straight season in the playoffs and third straight of increased attendance), our average paid attendance was 13,800 (rounded down). That is better than 80% capacity with a ticket-buying base that is 70-30 slanted toward non-corporate ticket sales. That is one of the best (if not the best) non-corporate ticket bases in the league.

There's no doubt that corporate Nashville and city leaders have dropped the ball. In today's world, a professional franchise must be supported by the area corporations and city leaders to succeed. That was understood by all parties going into this and the ball was dropped.

Unfortunately, it sometimes takes this type of wake-up call for everyone to understand. Edmonton and Calgary have both had a similar process occur.

Few people will argue that the growth of the NHL, in terms of the number of markets that have been added over the past seventeen years, was properly marketed and supported by the league. Some will argue, however, that the league should not have expanded that much (although they typically argue from the standpoint of on-ice talent, not from the business perspective). Given the poor marketing that ensued, the league probably should not have expanded to that degree. That is more of an indictment on the league, however, than the indvidual markets themselves.

Is Nashville a horrible market? I don't think so, but my definition of horrible appears to be more realistic than most. It's also based on the league as a whole. As I stated in my last article on PredNation.com, the NHL is not a healthy league right now- despite an excellent CBA. There are several franchises in trouble- traditional, non-traditional, competitive, non-competitive. The marketing of the league is horrible and revenue only increases due to franchises pushing the limit on ticket prices (as Detroit did too far in this years playoffs). This league will continue to tread water until larger television contracts are signed. (Again, I present more detail along this line of thought in my article.)

Is Nashville a key market to achieve that television contract? No, but that does not make them a horrible market.

If Nashville moves to Hamilton, will the other owners be able to pocket more money instead of committing it to revenue sharing? Possibly some, but not a lot more. Until this league is on firmer footing, franchises will continue to struggle.

Anyone that doesn't believe that Balsillie has angered some other others as well as Commissioner Bettman is naive. Nobody likes to be bullied and that's most certainly what Balsillie is trying to do. Will it have negative ramifications? I don't know the answer to that. If another option presents itself to the other owners, they would probably be more inclined to listen I would suspect. Beyond that becomes really murky speculation.

Finally, I acknowledge that it would hurt me tremendously to lose the Predators. That said, I have no ill will towards Leipold nor towards Balsillie. They are business men that are looking out for their best interests. For anyone to expect otherwise is foolish (not saying it can't happen, but do not expect it). There's no doubt that team owners are cut from the same cloth as politicians (working in Tennessee state government, trust me in this). There's also no doubt that Balsillie does not fit that mold. This is another reason that the BOG and Bettman (an "uber-politician") would love to have another legitimate option.

I've attempted to approach this issue from an educated standpoint. I welcome any discussions counter to my opinions.

Thanks.

I appreciate the feedback but you're putting a very nice spin to the stats. They sell (not fill) to a little over 80% capacity. But the league average is close to 92%. The Preds were in the bottom 3rd of the league when it comes to attendance.

And like you and I have both already mentioned, corporate support has been beyond abysmal. With a new owner basically waving Hamilton in their faces I don't see that changing anytime soon.

The league isn't as healthy as the other leagues but it's still doing well enough to increase the Cap in successive years.

Regardless, it says a lot if the whole heard is dying and your team is the sickest animal. The argument could be made that the other 29 teams in the NHL are currently better off with corporate, fan and owner support. That doesn't shout "Nashville Deserves to have a NHL team" to you does it?

[Opie 308]

I believe Balsillie's shares in RIM alone are worth more than $2 billion.

I was thinking the same thing, and I think he must be thinking of building a Blackberry Arena or Research in Motion Pavilion somewhere along the line. This guy made his money by being ahead of the curve and thinking way beyond others.

He would be the Mark Cuban of the NHL, he has a lot of personality and is a raw person. The only difference is in the NHL he wouldn't be sitting on the ice like Cuban in the NBA.

[StevieY9802 6]

The CBA in 95 was a result of the big teams like Detroit not wanting the cap and they spoke out against it which totally hurt Bettman getting the cap then. As for the mismanaging of these teams I think some owners came in thinking they can sit back and not have to do much with it and thats not the case in the NHL as mentioned. You actually have to do some work with an NHL team. Even in Detroit remember how bad the Wings were? Illitch had to give away cars to get people to come. I also think the NHL as a whole thought just because all of a sudden LA was competitive and drawing in fans that it would take care of it self which it didn't. They needed to work harder to get people involved in the smaller markets, imo. The Kings had Gretzky and that was the biggest reason for the attraction. If all the smaller markets had a player like that it would make things much easier.

[RedFX 48]

I don't know if this was mentioned already, but Ticketmaster yesterday started selling Season Tickets to a possible Hamilton team. Last I heard they had sold 7,300 seats and the Luxury Boxes were all gone, and the NHL hasn't even started discussing the sale of the Preds. If I remember the FAN590 updates correctly, they made $6.3 Million.

I've said this before, but this area is badly in need of another team. Having only one team in the Toronto-Hamilton area is a crime!

Buffalo will be fine.

Edit: Just some extra info I found on the tickets. Ticketmaster was taking deposits for Season Tickets, $1,000 for the lower bowl, $500 for the upper bowl, and $5,000 for the corporate boxes. Yeah, so yesterday they got deposits on 7,300 seats, the boxes were gone, and made $6.3 Million. If the Pred's don't moves, a full refund will be given.

That's outstanding!!! I hope the NHL takes notice......

I hope 7,300 people in the Hamilton area become disappointed.

[Barrie 900]

^ they always cut up the preds on the fan590 lol i listen to it everyday around 6.

Bob McCown is da man!!

[Dixie Wingslover 0]

The CBA in 95 was a result of the big teams like Detroit not wanting the cap and they spoke out against it which totally hurt Bettman getting the cap then. As for the mismanaging of these teams I think some owners came in thinking they can sit back and not have to do much with it and thats not the case in the NHL as mentioned. You actually have to do some work with an NHL team. Even in Detroit remember how bad the Wings were? Illitch had to give away cars to get people to come. I also think the NHL as a whole thought just because all of a sudden LA was competitive and drawing in fans that it would take care of it self which it didn't. They needed to work harder to get people involved in the smaller markets, imo. The Kings had Gretzky and that was the biggest reason for the attraction. If all the smaller markets had a player like that it would make things much easier.

Some valid points and criticisms of owners to my way of thinking...... who ever said that the large market teams just 'happened'. They didn't-their owners worked their azzes off for a long time in some cases to make it a large market. I do take exception to owners who feel, just because they bought a team, they are entitled to profits without being smart and making good decisions. Ilitch bought a market and team in a fire sale, and he built on it. What have the Preds ownership put into it???? A towel give-away??? I have no more sympathy for an owner losing money with out investing.... than I do for an alcoholic who says they are in recovery as they crack open their sixth beer.

[Barrie 900]

I hope 7,300 people in the Hamilton area become disappointed.

Fair enough. I'd rather the Pred's not move, but if there's that much interest, Hamilton should get a team. If Nashville doesn't, Miami or Phoenix should move here.

If the NHL had any business sense they would jump at the chance to move to Hamilton and have an owner like Balsillie on board. Instead they like teams that struggle at the gate and lose money, I don't get it .

[Hank 0]

I hope 7,300 people in the Hamilton area become disappointed.

I don't. I have absolutely nothing against the city of Nashville, their fans or the team. But I want NHL teams to be in cities that actually want them there.

And the thought of Detroit playing a hockey hotbed team like Hamilton 8 times a year is as close as we'll get to a Detroit-Toronto rivalry.

Here's to the Hamilton Steelheads!

[drsingle 0]

I appreciate the feedback but you're putting a very nice spin to the stats. They sell (not fill) to a little over 80% capacity. But the league average is close to 92%. The Preds were in the bottom 3rd of the league when it comes to attendance.

And like you and I have both already mentioned, corporate support has been beyond abysmal. With a new owner basically waving Hamilton in their faces I don't see that changing anytime soon.

I provided no spin. I provided facts- both the good and the bad: it's called the whole story. I praised the level of non-corporate based season ticket holders- deservedly so, don't you think? I also pointed out that the city of Nashville made this bed they are now being forced to lay in, yes?

The league isn't as healthy as the other leagues but it's still doing well enough to increase the Cap in successive years.

You are well aware that this is a gate-driven league and the increase is due to the rise in ticket prices in several markets (including Nashville, which still increased attendance over last season), yes? Just how much further do you think ticket prices can go up? Apparently not too much further in Detroit around playoff time. Before you're offended, it's not an indictment of the Detroit fans. There is only so much rope left along the path of raising ticket prices.

Regardless, it says a lot if the whole heard is dying and your team is the sickest animal. The argument could be made that the other 29 teams in the NHL are currently better off with corporate, fan and owner support. That doesn't shout "Nashville Deserves to have a NHL team" to you does it?

There's no denying that city leaders and the corporate community have dropped the ball- similar to the problems Edmonton and Calgary have gone through previously. I hope that problem can be corrected- if not the team will be eventually written off as a failure.

However, it's very telling about the league when you look at who has had even lower attendance than Nashville. This goes back to the league's goals that began in the early nineties to broaden the game. Unfortunately, they did not support the effort and moved too fast.

That is why I wrote my article at PredNation regarding the NHL being at a crossroads.

Thanks.

Edited June 15, 2007 by drsingle

[Legionnaire11 0]

Fair enough. I'd rather the Pred's not move, but if there's that much interest, Hamilton should get a team. If Nashville doesn't, Miami or Phoenix should move here.

If the NHL had any business sense they would jump at the chance to move to Hamilton and have an owner like Balsillie on board. Instead they like teams that struggle at the gate and lose money, I don't get it .

7,300 deposits... vs 8,000 fully paid season tickets. And with our ticket push this summer, that number could be up to 13,000.

But yeah, 7,300 is reflection of just how supportive everyone in Hamilton would be. I mean, with all the hockey starved folks in the area who would guarantee a sellout every night, there must be something wrong with the system if only 7,300 deposits have been put down in a 17,000 seat arena right? I mean, they should be blowing away the support from Nashville right?

[Barrie 900]

7,300 deposits... vs 8,000 fully paid season tickets. And with our ticket push this summer, that number could be up to 13,000.

But yeah, 7,300 is reflection of just how supportive everyone in Hamilton would be. I mean, with all the hockey starved folks in the area who would guarantee a sellout every night, there must be something wrong with the system if only 7,300 deposits have been put down in a 17,000 seat arena right? I mean, they should be blowing away the support from Nashville right?

7,300 in just 24 hours (the tickets went on sale at 10:00am on Thursday), so the number is higher since it's 4:30pm Friday, and the corporate boxes were all gone. Excellent since the team is in Nashville.

Edited June 16, 2007 by Barrie

[Hank 0]

7,300 deposits... vs 8,000 fully paid season tickets. And with our ticket push this summer, that number could be up to 13,000.

But yeah, 7,300 is reflection of just how supportive everyone in Hamilton would be. I mean, with all the hockey starved folks in the area who would guarantee a sellout every night, there must be something wrong with the system if only 7,300 deposits have been put down in a 17,000 seat arena right? I mean, they should be blowing away the support from Nashville right?

That's 7300 tickets sold already for a team that's not even guarenteed to be there. Meanwhile Nashville has a measly 8,000 for a team that's already been established and has one of the best young teams in the league.

When Hamilton put in for an expansion team in the 90's they sold 15,000 seasons tickets in 24 hours. Nuff said.

I provided no spin. I provided facts- both the good and the bad: it's called the whole story. I praised the level of non-corporate based season ticket holders- deservedly so, don't you think? I also pointed out that the city of Nashville made this bed they are now being forced to lay in, yes

But you did spin it. You say they have great non-corporate support despite the fact that they averaged under the league average. And now, when it's all but put on a billboard that the Preds need to sell 14,000 tickets, the city has responded with a whimper.

And I know that Calgary and Edmonton had similar issues, but their problems were from different circumstances. The Canadian dollar was horrific and neither team could afford to keep or buy their top players.

That hasn't been the case for the Preds. With the cap and revenue sharing the Preds could afford to keep a lot of their players and in fact went out and purchased two highly coveted free agents in Paul Kariya and Jason Arnott.

And let's not forget that both Edmonton and Calgary were established hockey markets with a rabid fanbase.

I know that neither of us is going to change the others opinions so we might as well drop it. There's no evidence that shows Nashville to be a great or even competent hockey market. The evidence points to the contrary.

If the Preds sold out everynight I would say otherwise. But they don't. They average over 10% less per game than the rest of the league. They are getting lukewarm support from fans and ice cold support from the corporate sector.

It's time to move.

Have a great weekend.

Hank

[drsingle 0]

I know that neither of us is going to change the others opinions so we might as well drop it.

Have a great weekend.

Hank

Fair enough.

You have a great weekend as well.

Thanks!

David

[Legionnaire11 0]

I believe Balsillie's shares in RIM alone are worth more than $2 billion.

more news. The group from Nashville is not only the Frist Family ($1.8B) but also the Ingram Family ($2.9B). That's a total of $4.7B plus whoever else they have in their group. Much, Much, Much more money than Balsillie has. All we need now is for the deal to be voted down or for Leipold to back out of the deal.

Once this new group has control, the preds will be guaranteed in Nashville forever!

[Mickeyisms Rule! 0]

I provided no spin. I provided facts- both the good and the bad: it's called the whole story. I praised the level of non-corporate based season ticket holders- deservedly so, don't you think? I also pointed out that the city of Nashville made this bed they are now being forced to lay in, yes?

You are well aware that this is a gate-driven league and the increase is due to the rise in ticket prices in several markets (including Nashville, which still increased attendance over last season), yes? Just how much further do you think ticket prices can go up? Apparently not too much further in Detroit around playoff time. Before you're offended, it's not an indictment of the Detroit fans. There is only so much rope left along the path of raising ticket prices.

There's no denying that city leaders and the corporate community have dropped the ball- similar to the problems Edmonton and Calgary have gone through previously. I hope that problem can be corrected- if not the team will be eventually written off as a failure.

However, it's very telling about the league when you look at who has had even lower attendance than Nashville. This goes back to the league's goals that began in the early nineties to broaden the game. Unfortunately, they did not support the effort and moved too fast.

That is why I wrote my article at PredNation regarding the NHL being at a crossroads.

Thanks.

I take a bit of umbrage at the statement above. Yes, this is a gate driven league. Yes the cap has gone up the past couple years since the new CBA went in. The issue I take with this is that teams like Nashville are the teams that are forcing the ticket prices up in markets like Detroit (the top 10 support the bottom 10, right?).

So the way that Iook at it now, it is the teams like Nashville that are really holding the league back from being able to make a larger investment in the marketing of the NHL. Instead they are habing to use all that money to support the Preds, the Coyotes, etc.

[Barrie 900]

more news. The group from Nashville is not only the Frist Family ($1.8B) but also the Ingram Family ($2.9B). That's a total of $4.7B plus whoever else they have in their group. Much, Much, Much more money than Balsillie has. All we need now is for the deal to be voted down or for Leipold to back out of the deal.

Once this new group has control, the preds will be guaranteed in Nashville forever!

Yeah I'm hearing Balsillie's bid will probably be rejected.

He'll go after another team then. "Hello Florida/Phoeinx, I have $220 Million."

I take a bit of umbrage at the statement above. Yes, this is a gate driven league. Yes the cap has gone up the past couple years since the new CBA went in. The issue I take with this is that teams like Nashville are the teams that are forcing the ticket prices up in markets like Detroit (the top 10 support the bottom 10, right?).

So the way that Iook at it now, it is the teams like Nashville that are really holding the league back from being able to make a larger investment in the marketing of the NHL. Instead they are habing to use all that money to support the Preds, the Coyotes, etc.

You really can't blame Nashville and Phoenix, the blame is on Bettman and the League for going into those markets.

[vandypred 0]

Vandy, you make quite a few valid points. One that I believe you have missed is the nature of the business miss management. You make the observation that Bettman is an uber politician.... and he is. Many of the problems with the league and the owners who are in trouble is just that.....politicians and not small business men. The NHL differs from the 'Big Three' of professional sports ( NFL, NBA and MLB ) in that, for best effect, it needs to be managed, not like a multi-national conglomerate, but like a small business. Successfull small business supports other small business, even those larger than itself. Small business is a constant, you scratch my back, I'll scratch yours..... not a rape and pilage of the local area for stock-holders. A small business should engage in behavior which makes it part of a community. Just an example..... our home games bring in business and revenue to your business.... how about supporting us and help yourself out at the same time????? Buy a block of tickets and do a ticket give away.... Got a contract to show our games???? ( and give us exposure) well, then, we will commit to $50,000 of non-event advertising on your network.... over the next three months of the season..... this is the type of reciprocity that makes a business, any business grow. The successful owners know this, and this is how they remain successful. That didn't happen in Nashville, and in some the other markets that are having trouble. It may, from my reads of the local papers the local business has figured it out.... not because Leipold and his people finally figured out how to market..... but because they got pushed in the pocket book by Balsillie.

Leipold and his crew made an elementary sales mistake, they went after the big ticket, sexy sale, rather than the 5 smaller sales that were invested in the success of the team. It is way easier for some corporate flunky to say 'no' than some small business owner who just filled his business last night because you had a home game.......

Will not dispute your logic on this one as I feel that this situation is evident across all of the major sports leagues. The problem is that guys that have made some coin in the business world think they can apply the same tactics to sports teams that got them ahead in business and be the man of the hour all of the time because they own the team. They have to really set themselves up to be more like a public utility that attempts to serve all and provide some benefit to all and make an adequate profit; not a quick slash-and-dash stock swap deal that nets them a billion for a few patented ideas in an emerging company. Hard to put the ideas in a few short words about some of the new owners; but think I got the point accross.

[Barrie 900]

Just and update on the downpayment for Hamilton NHL tickets, I'm listening to the FAN590 in Toronto and they're talking about it. It's over 10,000 seats now, and the Corporate Boxes have been sold out since yesterday.

Edit: The Corporate Boxes, they had to cut it off at 65, and there was more companies willing to put $5,000 down.

The Host, Bob McCown, says 10,000 is bad, while the other three in the Round Table says that's great considering the team hasn't even been purchased yet, and Hamilton has been given the shaft before with the possibility of the NHL coming to town.

I agree with the other three, 10,000 seats and 65 Corporate Boxes is excellent for the situation.

Edited June 15, 2007 by Barrie

[Guest jaytan]

7,300 deposits... vs 8,000 fully paid season tickets. And with our ticket push this summer, that number could be up to 13,000.

But yeah, 7,300 is reflection of just how supportive everyone in Hamilton would be. I mean, with all the hockey starved folks in the area who would guarantee a sellout every night, there must be something wrong with the system if only 7,300 deposits have been put down in a 17,000 seat arena right? I mean, they should be blowing away the support from Nashville right?

You guys are getting delusional.

That's over 7,000 expensive deposits in ONE DAY when there's no chance that the team will even be playing there next season.... Oh yeah, and the sale hasn't even been approved yet!

I don't see how that news can comfort a Nashville fan at all, but at least you're able to stay positive.

[RedFX 48]

A bit of breaking news here...

Just heard on 104.5 in Nashville that Leipold has just enacted the cure clause, which would allow the city to buy out seats to meet the required attendance, if attendance falls below the 14,000 mark. This would nulify that 3 year clause, keeping the Preds in Nashville for at least 7 years. The city has the option to reject the clause, breaking the lease, but they have stated that won't be the case. This has been speculated, and Balsillie will be sure to find a way around this, but this move makes it that much difficult.

Also saw this on the front of Comcast.

http://www.comcast.net/sports/index.jsp?ca.../15/690965.html

[RedFX 48]

Statement from Leipold

http://www.nashvillepredators.com/pressbox...p?story_id=1373

[Barrie 900]

This story gets better by the day.

[RedFX 48]

The Nashville Sports Council has said they are appealing the cure clause, due the fact that the lockout year should not be counted as a year below 14,000 attendance, this would make next year the third year, nullifying any possible move until after the 2009 season. Just to clarify here because there was a little confusion about what the cure clause actually states.

[Dixie Wingslover 0]

The Nashville Sports Council has said they are appealing the cure clause, due the fact that the lockout year should not be counted as a year below 14,000 attendance, this would make next year the third year, nullifying any possible move until after the 2009 season. Just to clarify here because there was a little confusion about what the cure clause actually states.

From listening to Balsillie's lawyer, I think this is what they were depending on..... no move til after 2008..... no litigation til then either..... litigation is going to make the team more unattractive to other potential buyers, though....Leipold may have pulled the trigger too soon here. In watching this dance.... I have to put my bets on the guy who made his own money, in business, (Balsillie) -rather than married it ( Leipold)

A bit of breaking news here...

Just heard on 104.5 in Nashville that Leipold has just enacted the cure clause, which would allow the city to buy out seats to meet the required attendance, if attendance falls below the 14,000 mark. This would nulify that 3 year clause, keeping the Preds in Nashville for at least 7 years. The city has the option to reject the clause, breaking the lease, but they have stated that won't be the case. This has been speculated, and Balsillie will be sure to find a way around this, but this move makes it that much difficult.

Also saw this on the front of Comcast.

http://www.comcast.net/sports/index.jsp?ca.../15/690965.html

My my, how the worm turns..... two weeks ago they were not interested in spending the $ to keep the team in town...... but then, that was before somebody seriously looked like they were gonna buy it. Looks like Leipold may get to keep his team, and get the $$$$ he wanted out of Nashville all along..... how convenient

[Legionnaire11 0]

nah, no matter what happens leipold is gone. he lost the fans on this one. the only ownership we would respond to positively now is this new local group.

as for the cure clause. i wish that the city wouldn't fight it. This is actually perfect timing for it. we're all but assured to destroy the 14k mark next season, thus bumping the cure season for another 3 years and making it that much more difficult for Balsillie to move the team in that time. however, if they fight the cure and it gets put off for a season, balsillie will be able to raise ticket prices and downgrade the roster for that season. so we end up with 2 seasons of hockey instead of at least 4.

Who knows how all the legal will play out. right now though i can say that the predators fanbase as a whole are focused on two things.

1. the first priority, above all else. getting 14k paid attendance.

2. the new thing, hoping that the deal falls through and the local group can buy the team.