Dispelling some myths: the Pittsburgh Penguins

[Aeothe Kaear 0]

Does this guy know how to party or what?

Hey, eat me. Just because I'm a scientist doesn't mean I can't party like a rock star (as my hangover today attests... ugh!)

[betterREDthandead 58]

funny

but it was fluke win. Team US was lucky. Tretiak was horrible that one particular game. No miracle.

Overblown..but why not, it happend in USA, they beat the commies right

Yeah, so what if it was a fluke? (Was it? We beat Finland next for the gold, and never lost a game in the tourney. How many wins before they're not flukes?)

It's called the Miracle on Ice because of Al Michaels' call to end the game. And because the Fluke On Ice doesn't have the same ring to it. And because a team of amateur kids that knocked off a team of highly seasoned, experienced *wink* amateurs with extremely large stipends.

[betterREDthandead 58]

Now that Game 1's in the books, it's time for myths, revisited. Taking a look at how the six factors I listed played out in Game 1:

- Power play. Pittsburgh 0 for 5. Some decent chances, but in the end the Wings had more goals on the Pens power play than the Pens did. Starting with Game 1 against Dallas, an opponents' power play has been just as likely to result in a Wings goal as an opponent goal.

- Pens' defense. I can't evaluate it until I see some evidence of it. They hung Fleury out to dry starting in the second and he came up big, mostly.

- Duo vs. duo. Malkin was so invisible I literally forgot about him for a long time and then thought the announcers said "Walton". That actually happened. 1 shot, 1 penalty, and a -1 for the game, and he shoulders half the blame for Sammy's second goal. Oh, and Crosby got laid out by Zetterberg. Which was nice.

- Advantage youth. Watch out for that first step dude, it's a doozy.

- Pens' advantage in net. Fleury shoulders the other half of the blame for Sammy's second, got caught out of position on Sammy's first, and got caught moving backwards on Cleary's shorty.

- Adversity. Now we'll see how they react.

[ThreeRiversFan 0]

- Adversity. Now we'll see how they react.

Bingo...game 2 will tell the tale....

Pens need to react...or this will be short

[betterREDthandead 58]

Bingo...game 2 will tell the tale....

Pens need to react...or this will be short

As I said before the series....the Pens are perfectly capable of getting a split in Detroit. Maybe even taking the first two (though that could prove difficult now ) But if they don't win either one, and go back to Pittsburgh down 0-2, that's it. If they can't win the relatively low pressure ones early in the series, then I dont' seem them winning the high-pressure ones later.

[eva unit zero 271]

Ok, I'll get into this comparison game. Except rather than 1st line vs 1st line, 2nd vs 2nd, etc, I'm going to play it a different way. I'm going to compare the likely matchups for the start of the series based on recently used lines. I'm going to lump the defensemen most likely to play with each line the most into the comparison.

Detroit's 1st line vs Pittsburgh's 1st line

Pavel Datsyuk/Henrik Zetterberg/Tomas Holmstrom/Nicklas Lidstrom/Brian Rafalski vs Pascal Dupuis/Sidney Crosby/Marian Hossa/Sergei Gonchar/Brooks Orpik

Detroit's top forward line has scored 28 even-strength points in 16 games to Pittsburgh's 26 in 14. Detroit's top line also has two Selke nominees, to Pittsburgh's zero. Detroit also has the two best defensemen at either end of the ice in this comparison. Don't expect to see this matchup as much in Games 3 and 4. Advantage: Detroit

Detroit's 2nd line vs Pittsburgh's 3rd line

Jiri Hudler/Valtteri Filppula/Dan Cleary/Brett Lebda/Chris Chelios vs Tyler Kennedy/Jordan Staal/Jarkko Ruutu/Hal Gill/Rob Scuderi

Detroit's second line features plenty of skill. Unfortunately, two thirds of this line has been underachieving in the offensive department for this run. Defensively sound, they should be able to handle the offensive contributions put forth by Pittsburgh's bunch, but unless one of Filppula or Cleary shows up, it will be fairly easy for the Staal line to contain Hudler if he's forced to do it alone. I expect the Lebda/Chelios pairing to be used here because Babcock will want to match Kronner with Malkin. I see Lebda playing because of his speed and the fact his pairing is likely to be used in an offensive situation. Advantage: Pittsburgh

Detroit's 3rd line vs Pittsburgh's 2nd line

Dallas Drake/Kris Draper/Mikael Samuelsson/Niklas Kronwall/Brad Stuart vs Petr Sykora/Evgeni Malkin/Ryan Malone/Ryan Whitney/Kris Letang

This is probably a key matchup in the series. Draper and Drake are the two best faceoff guys in the matchup that will actually end up in the circle; Malkin might be the worst. Detroit will try to exploit the difference between Draper and Malkin at the dot to control the puck as much as possible to neutralize Pittsburgh's potent second line. It should be an effective strategy; combine that with the fact that all three of DDS are defensively sound players who skate well and have decent puck skills, and I expect this to be a key matchup in the series. Kronwall's excellent performance at both ends and physically thus far is what will ultimately lead to Malkin being generally contained, and Stuart's solid defense is a bonus. Advantage: Detroit

Detroit's 4th line vs Pittsburgh's 4th line

Kirk Maltby/Darren Helm/Darren McCarty vs Georges Laraque/Max Talbot/Adam Hall

I don't expect to actually see this matchup; Detroit's fourth line is typically used to spell the first three more than it is used to match up against a specific line; Pittsburgh's is only the 4th line because they are the remaining three forwards and typically will be used as fill-ins on the first three lines; common is Talbot filling in on line 1 for Dupuis or line 3 for Ruutu. Both units have a generally useless veteran who is only around in case of what MIGHT happen, as well as a speedy winger who is primarily a defensive player who plays gritty and physical. Both units also have a young two-way center capable of offensive production if given the opportunity, but solid at the dot and in his own zone. Advantage: Even...like it even matters.

Goaltending

Chris Osgood vs Marc-Andre Fleury

Osgood and Fleury have similar numbers. Both have stolen games in this playoff run. Both have been doubted, and have silenced many critics. The Wings have a better team and win most of the matchups; importantly they win the matchups concerning Pittsburgh's top two lines. Osgood will have far less work to do than Fleury will; Fleury isn't so great, nor Osgood so terrible, that the Pens should end up on top in any of the games at the Joe. Advantage: Detroit

Ok. Here's my analysis of how my analysis went...for those that care.

Other than having Chelios in where Lilja played...

It went pretty much according to what I posted.

Of note is my prediction of the DDS line vs the Malkin line as a key matchup, and that the advantage was to Detroit. Any Pens fans care to pick on that one now?