Holland Admits the Obvious

[chrisdetroit 189]

Calm your ass down, Chris. I never said Hossa should replace Lilja on the PK. My point was that adding a guy like Hossa will help the PK effort -- and that's regardless of whether Lilja goes or stays. Moreover, no one is hiding behind the salary issue. I like Lilja, never had much of a problem with him. But, as eva has been pointing out (apparently to no avail, sadly), money is an issue, as is the availability of roster spots. Chelios will be returning, as will, from the looks of things, Quincey. That would give the Wings a couple dozen roster players and would, in a best-case scenario, put them over the cap by about half a million. That will leave Kenny with a couple options:

1. Lose Lilja

2. Lose Lebda and a forward

If Lebda gets moved, the team's in the cap clear by only about 150k -- too close for comfort. That would necessitate cutting a forward free in addition to axing Lebda. In light of this, it would be better to move Lilja. He's not so much better than Lebda that this should cause the kind of righteous indignation that I'm seeing from some posters. Lilja is not much more valuable than Lebda, if more valuable at all. Certainly not enough to justify the price tag difference. Then you factor in the youngsters waiting eagerly in the wings, one of which could one day be a first-pairing guy in this league, hopefully with this team. Like I said, I don't really have a problem with Lilja -- but considering these points, it wouldn't exactly break my heart to see him go.

[chrisdetroit 189]

I don't hate Lilja. I think he's a decent stay-at-home third pair type guy.

The thing is, Lilja is the only player who can be removed from the current list of 24 players who the Wings have signed or intend to sign who singlehandedly clears up both the necessary cap space and the necessary roster space to allow them to fill out the 23-man roster.

I said traded or waived because there is a chance that by the time the Wings look to deal him, nobody has the available cap space, nobody is interested in Lilja, nobody wants to help the Wings, or some combination of the three.

sigh.... Nobody has the cap space - wrong. There are teams that not near the cap space and could easily add a 1.25 mil salary in alphabetical order - Atlanta, Buffalo, Carolina, Columbus, Colorado...

Nobody is interested in Lilja - wrong - Are you telling me that a team that in struggling defensively wouldn't like Lilja - say a bottom dweller like Los Angeles or St. Louis?

Nobody wants to help the Wings - ??? - This is silly. All the intersted teams would have to plot to not sign him. Do you think that a non-playoff team is going to not sign Lilja just because they might be helping the Wings.

[eva unit zero 271]

sigh.... Nobody has the cap space - wrong. There are teams that not near the cap space and could easily add a 1.25 mil salary in alphabetical order - Atlanta, Buffalo, Carolina, Columbus, Colorado...

Nobody is interested in Lilja - wrong - Are you telling me that a team that in struggling defensively wouldn't like Lilja - say a bottom dweller like Los Angeles or St. Louis?

Nobody wants to help the Wings - ??? - This is silly. All the intersted teams would have to plot to not sign him. Do you think that a non-playoff team is going to not sign Lilja just because they might be helping the Wings.

Ok, you didn't understand what I was saying with 'or some combination of the three' did you? Say seven teams have the cap space. Now, only those seven teams could possibly acquire Lilja. But it's not a guarantee that all, or any, of those seven teams would even be interested in Lilja. And even the ones that are might look elsewhere for defensive help comparable to Lilja, as he's far from the only guy with his abilities in his price range, if they are a divisional rival like Chicago, St. Louis, or Nashville that might be better off NOT trading for Lilja and helping the Wings out of a jam.

A team must have the cap space, the interest in acquiring a bottom-three defenseman, and the willingness to trade with Detroit for a defenseman before they will actually be trading for Lilja. It's like how a square has three qualifiers; it has four sides, it is equilateral, and it is equiangular. If ANY of the three parts are missing, it's not a square.

Realistically, the teams most likely to be interested in Lilja; meaning teams that would be looking to add a #4-#6 defenseman who is solid defensively, can play the PK, block shots, and hit, and doesn't make a ton, but also are among the more likely trading partners for the Red Wings:

1. Los Angeles Kings

2. Atlanta Thrashers

3. Buffalo Sabres

4. Tampa Bay Lightning

5. Montreal Canadiens

The thing is, there are quite a few available UFA defensemen who those teams might prefer over Lilja for the same role and paycheck. This possibility-that Lilja's status as 'under contract' might prevent a deal because it would require the team trading for him to give up assets-is what puts the possibility that he might end up being waived in the discussion.

[YoungGuns1340 1]

Ok, you didn't understand what I was saying with 'or some combination of the three' did you? Say seven teams have the cap space. Now, only those seven teams could possibly acquire Lilja. But it's not a guarantee that all, or any, of those seven teams would even be interested in Lilja. And even the ones that are might look elsewhere for defensive help comparable to Lilja, as he's far from the only guy with his abilities in his price range, if they are a divisional rival like Chicago, St. Louis, or Nashville that might be better off NOT trading for Lilja and helping the Wings out of a jam.

A team must have the cap space, the interest in acquiring a bottom-three defenseman, and the willingness to trade with Detroit for a defenseman before they will actually be trading for Lilja. It's like how a square has three qualifiers; it has four sides, it is equilateral, and it is equiangular. If ANY of the three parts are missing, it's not a square.

Realistically, the teams most likely to be interested in Lilja; meaning teams that would be looking to add a #4-#6 defenseman who is solid defensively, can play the PK, block shots, and hit, and doesn't make a ton, but also are among the more likely trading partners for the Red Wings:

1. Los Angeles Kings

2. Atlanta Thrashers

3. Buffalo Sabres

4. Tampa Bay Lightning

5. Montreal Canadiens

The thing is, there are quite a few available UFA defensemen who those teams might prefer over Lilja for the same role and paycheck. This possibility-that Lilja's status as 'under contract' might prevent a deal because it would require the team trading for him to give up assets-is what puts the possibility that he might end up being waived in the discussion.

I always thought Atlanta would be a good option for Lilja. They're low on NHL worth defenseman, and had the 4th worst penalty kill in the NHL last year. Liljas salary is a fine fit for Atlanta - nothing big but helps them reach the floor - and Atlanta has a bit of a Swedish thing going on with Enstrom and Havelid on the backend. But specifically his PK skills would undoubtedly pique Atlantas interest. Havelid and Enstrom holding down your PK is adequate reason enough why they had a 5 worst PK last year.

[dereklai 0]

i don't think it would bode well for the coming season if we signed and traded.

[Booster313 138]

I agree I would prefer to move Lilja but it wouldn't be right at this point.

[Dabura 12,232]

Again, how is shipping Lebda and Sammy (the next "best" option in terms of addressing the cap and roster space issues) any more "right" than moving Lilja? I'm not saying I like sign & trades, but this is an uncomfortable situation to begin with, so the solution will need to be a "lesser evil" kind of thing.

Let's not forget: adding Hossa wasn't terribly "fair" to everyone, but Kenny still pulled the trigger on the deal.

[haroldsnepsts 4,826]

Again, how is shipping Lebda and Sammy (the next "best" option in terms of addressing the cap and roster space issues) any more "right" than moving Lilja? I'm not saying I like sign & trades, but this is an uncomfortable situation to begin with, so the solution will need to be a "lesser evil" kind of thing.

Let's not forget: adding Hossa wasn't terribly "fair" to everyone, but Kenny still pulled the trigger on the deal.

who wasn't it fair to?

[norrisnick 1]

The other 29 teams...

[dereklai 0]

Again, how is shipping Lebda and Sammy (the next "best" option in terms of addressing the cap and roster space issues) any more "right" than moving Lilja? I'm not saying I like sign & trades, but this is an uncomfortable situation to begin with, so the solution will need to be a "lesser evil" kind of thing.

Let's not forget: adding Hossa wasn't terribly "fair" to everyone, but Kenny still pulled the trigger on the deal.

when lilja re-upped with us he did so under the assumption that he was securing his next two years. imagine the betrayal he'd feel if he's shipped off to the horrors of atlanta or whatever before the season even begins.

[eva unit zero 271]

when lilja re-upped with us he did so under the assumption that he was securing his next two years. imagine the betrayal he'd feel if he's shipped off to the horrors of atlanta or whatever before the season even begins.

If Lilja can't outplay Meech, Lebda, and Quincey he has nobody to blame but himself.

[Kp-Wings 3]

when lilja re-upped with us he did so under the assumption that he was securing his next two years. imagine the betrayal he'd feel if he's shipped off to the horrors of atlanta or whatever before the season even begins.

That didn't stop our old friend Slava Kozlov from re-signing, did it?

[Dabura 12,232]

who wasn't it fair to?

The argument can be made that it wasn't "fair" (obviously I'm not terribly fond of this word) to pretty much every Wing whose status with the team is even a little uncertain. Hossa takes up a roster spot (which will never be forfeited via healthy scratching, a la Drake) and 7.4 million. I'm sure that has some guys a little worried about their individual situations.

As for Lilja, I'll ask my question again: how is shipping Lebda and Sammy any more "fair" than moving Lilja? Yes, I know, it would feel wrong -- but so would telling Lebda and Sammy to take a walk. Lebda's about as good as Lilja and he only make 650. Sammy's more valuable than either of those and is also a better bargain. Lilja would get more ice time on any other team in the league.

Besides, Lilja is, apparently, a "viking warrior" and Kenny's the best GM in the NHL. They'd both survive -- somehow, some way!

[haroldsnepsts 4,826]

The argument can be made that it wasn't "fair" (obviously I'm not terribly fond of this word) to pretty much every Wing whose status with the team is even a little uncertain. Hossa takes up a roster spot (which will never be forfeited via healthy scratching, a la Drake) and 7.4 million. I'm sure that has some guys a little worried about their individual situations.

As for Lilja, I'll ask my question again: how is shipping Lebda and Sammy any more "fair" than moving Lilja? Yes, I know, it would feel wrong -- but so would telling Lebda and Sammy to take a walk. Lebda's about as good as Lilja and he only make 650. Sammy's more valuable than either of those and is also a better bargain. Lilja would get more ice time on any other team in the league.

Besides, Lilja is, apparently, a "viking warrior" and Kenny's the best GM in the NHL. They'd both survive -- somehow, some way!

Yeah, I'm not sure how sammy's name got thrown in the mix, other than he's the whipping boy here. He drives me crazy sometimes, but I highly doubt Holland would be moving him to make cap room. For what he does, he's still a good deal. And now with Hossa he'll likely have the appropriate ice time.

As I said before though, I don't think Lebda is about as good as Lilja. Lilja played more even strength ice time, kills penalties, block shots, and will muck it up once in a great while. Lebda doesn't do those things, and his only real advantage is he can be used on the power play. but with our top 4, it's not really an issue.

I honestly don't know what they'll do to make the cap space and get everyone signed, but it should be interesting.

[eva unit zero 271]

Yeah, I'm not sure how sammy's name got thrown in the mix, other than he's the whipping boy here. He drives me crazy sometimes, but I highly doubt Holland would be moving him to make cap room. For what he does, he's still a good deal. And now with Hossa he'll likely have the appropriate ice time.

As I said before though, I don't think Lebda is about as good as Lilja. Lilja played more even strength ice time, kills penalties, block shots, and will muck it up once in a great while. Lebda doesn't do those things, and his only real advantage is he can be used on the power play. but with our top 4, it's not really an issue.

I honestly don't know what they'll do to make the cap space and get everyone signed, but it should be interesting.

Sammy was mentioned because if the Wings keep Lilja and the top four defense, they have to move a forward to clear up the necessary cap space to fill out the roster. Among forwards, it would probably be Sammy moved. Maltby, Hudler, Draper, and Franzen were the other guys who make enough money to be replaced with a guy near minimum salary and clear the necessary cap space; Draper has NTC, Franzen and Hudler are much more important than Sammy, Maltby has much less value and salary, but has been around much longer so the team is more loyal to him and therefore less likely to move him. The fact that it would require moving one of those five regular forwards PLUS a defenseman who is equal to Lilja, or just moving Lilja is an even stronger argument that Lilja is the guy who probably will go. Lilja could quite possibly be the worst player, forward or defenseman, involved in this discussion. Sammy, Draper, Maltby, Hudler, Franzen are all better...and Lilja could possibly be the worst of the defensemen involved; the talent gap was so small last year and the other guys are much younger it's entirely possible he enters the season having been surpassed in ability by the younger defenders. Then factor that only Draper, who has a NTC and won't be moved, makes more money...it's going to be Lilja. Biggest salary among expendable players who can easily be moved, and possibly the least skill in the same group. That puts him in the position of being the guy who gets kicked out the door whether the decision is made by skill or money.

[haroldsnepsts 4,826]

Sammy was mentioned because if the Wings keep Lilja and the top four defense, they have to move a forward to clear up the necessary cap space to fill out the roster. Among forwards, it would probably be Sammy moved. Maltby, Hudler, Draper, and Franzen were the other guys who make enough money to be replaced with a guy near minimum salary and clear the necessary cap space; Draper has NTC, Franzen and Hudler are much more important than Sammy, Maltby has much less value and salary, but has been around much longer so the team is more loyal to him and therefore less likely to move him. The fact that it would require moving one of those five regular forwards PLUS a defenseman who is equal to Lilja, or just moving Lilja is an even stronger argument that Lilja is the guy who probably will go. Lilja could quite possibly be the worst player, forward or defenseman, involved in this discussion. Sammy, Draper, Maltby, Hudler, Franzen are all better...and Lilja could possibly be the worst of the defensemen involved; the talent gap was so small last year and the other guys are much younger it's entirely possible he enters the season having been surpassed in ability by the younger defenders. Then factor that only Draper, who has a NTC and won't be moved, makes more money...it's going to be Lilja. Biggest salary among expendable players who can easily be moved, and possibly the least skill in the same group. That puts him in the position of being the guy who gets kicked out the door whether the decision is made by skill or money.

Hudler is "much more important" to the team than Samuelsson?

Edited August 28, 2008 by haroldsnepsts

[drwscc 212]

I have a feeling it will be Hudler. Babcock/Holland have repeatedly demonstrated that they hold Sammy in high regard, and for the money, Sammy is a good value. Hudler makes the most sense, as sad as I will be to see him go.

[CenterIce 83]

If Lilja can't outplay Meech, Lebda, and Quincey he has nobody to blame but himself.

That is the point of all this. Training camp should decide. If you don't play well, then you decided your own fate. The interesting thing will be if they all play well, who they will choose.

[CenterIce 83]

I have a feeling it will be Hudler. Babcock/Holland have repeatedly demonstrated that they hold Sammy in high regard, and for the money, Sammy is a good value. Hudler makes the most sense, as sad as I will be to see him go.

How does this help the defensive log jam. The only way a forward will be add to the trade is if he is included in a deal to balance out the salaries or the other teams really wants one added.

[Guest nutz2u]

For me, Sammy is a MUST TRADE, and if that will not resolve the defense logjam, it will free up some cap space, what is an important part of the equation

Here is why sammy is a MUST TRADE

1/we can loose him that our roster won t be affected, we have enough quality player to replace him

2/his trade value will never be higher (small salary, just won a cup)

3/the trade can solve our problem of cap space

4/his contract will end up at the end of the year, and he will for sure ask for more (what we can t afford) or leave. Or we need cap space to potentially try to re-sign Franzen and Hossa

regarding of these points, to keep Sammy when we ll have players like Helm or Leino (need confirmation) down, would be nothing else than sentimental.

The points you bring up regarding Sammy are exactly what I was going to post. The most bang for your buck in trade value is Sammy and Lebda. 1.850 in cap space cleared and both are very replacable from within for less money and have the highest trade value of the players in question other than Lilly who I don't think the Wings want to give up.

[Dabura 12,232]

Sammy is one of the best bargains in the league. Helm would not be an adequate replacement and Leino's not even a lock to make the team (actually, neither's Helm for that matter).

[2probert4 8]

He probably won't have a choice. Chances are, he'll have to put Quincey on waivers to send him to GR and I'm pretty sure someone will take him. So why wouldn't he try to get something for him?

I don't think anyone understands this.

Why put Quincey on waivers ? That doesn't make sense..... Lilja on waivers, would make sense. Quincey wouldn't make it past the first team with waiver priority....They won't just give him away...

[Opie 308]

Why put Quincey on waivers ? That doesn't make sense..... Lilja on waivers, would make sense. Quincey wouldn't make it past the first team with waiver priority....They won't just give him away...

Odds are other than D-mac and Downey any red wing player put on Waivers would get picked up including Lilja.

While the people on this board may trash Lilja, he is a big PKer, shot blocker, solid stay at home D-man who would easily be in the top 4 of most of the bottom 10 teams in the league.

And the only reason why D-mac and Downey would make it through is that they are part time players, other than I don't see a team letting Quincey or any other Red Wing player making it through waivers, especially when you consider the respect Holland and Andersson are getting around the league and in the media about their drafting and skill scouting abilities.

But just my opinion!

[Doggy 130]

Why put Quincey on waivers ? That doesn't make sense..... Lilja on waivers, would make sense. Quincey wouldn't make it past the first team with waiver priority....They won't just give him away...

Quincey isn't a top 7 D-man. We can't have 30 guys on the active roster. Therefore, he needs to go to GR. He must clear waivers first. What doesn't make sense about this?

[eva unit zero 271]

Quincey isn't a top 7 D-man. We can't have 30 guys on the active roster. Therefore, he needs to go to GR. He must clear waivers first. What doesn't make sense about this?

Quincey is a top 5-6 NHL defenseman on 25 or more teams in the NHL, as are Lilja, Meech, and Lebda.

The decision of who goes may be as simple as who plays the worst, but more than likely it will be based on the criteria I have been laying out; that it will involve contract and age as well as performance. And that means Quincey and Meech are basically untradable in this aspect, if only because trading them clears no cap space as Quincey is currently unsigned and Meech makes the league minimum over the next two seasons (his cap hit is just above it due to the raising minimum next year) and the Wings must clear at least $75k above the league minimum just to make the cap. The Wings will almost certainly be trading or waiving Lilja...the other option is to trade/waive a cheaper defenseman AND a forward who makes more than a million; that does much more harm to the team than just dropping Lilja, as the forward, likely Samuelsson, is more important to the team and would be replaced by someone who is a significant downgrade, while Lebda/Meech/Quincey would at worst be a minor downgrade.