Theory that its too hard to repeat

[zetterbergfan 23]

Sorry, if this is a repeat topic. I haven't seen it recently.

You hear a lot about how it's too hard to repeat, it just doesn't happen that often. It's true that it is a lot harder than it used to be (with more teams, salary caps, free-agency, etc.).

But, I would argue that the Wings are due to repeat if you look at the history of Stanley Cup winners. The ten years that has gone by since the last time the Wings won back-to-back Cups is the longest stretch without repeat winners ever. Teams have won back-to-back championships in every decade except this one, and this year (2009)is the last chance to do it.

97, 98 Detroit

91, 92 Pittsburgh

87, 88 Edmonton

84, 85 Edmonton

80, 81, 82,83 Islanders

76, 77, 78, 79 Montreal

74, 75 Philadelphia

68, 69 Montreal

65, 66 Montreal

62, 63, 64 Toronto

56, 57, 58, 59, 60 Montreal

54, 55 Detroit

47, 48, 49 Toronto

[#19=Legend 29]

Thats a good way to look at it. Ive never really thought about that before.

edit-sp

Edited September 29, 2008 by #19=Legend

[Sgt Sharpie 4]

there are 2 sets every decade except the 40s and now, i never realised that. but i also dont believe in trends like these

[dallas27 7]

I find basing things off the past and trying to use that information to predict something in the future to be rather silly. You go with the information at hand. The Wings are more talented this year than last and winning a Stanley Cup with the core they have now is a huge step, they all know what it takes now. They play like they should and it shouldn't be a problem. Of course there are other factors that come into play; hot teams, injuries, etc. Regardless, they play like they should there isn't a reason why they aren't at least in the SCF.

[Saran 1]

good point, another reason why we WILL repeat this year.

[b.shanafan14 733]

I find basing things off the past and trying to use that information to predict something in the future to be rather silly. You go with the information at hand. The Wings are more talented this year than last and winning a Stanley Cup with the core they have now is a huge step, they all know what it takes now. They play like they should and it shouldn't be a problem. Of course there are other factors that come into play; hot teams, injuries, etc. Regardless, they play like they should there isn't a reason why they aren't at least in the SCF.

Exactly basing such things on being "due" for a repeat team is irrelevant. It goes by individual teams level of play and a lot of intangibles. There were more in the past because it was easier to keep a team together, just involved paying more. The Wings are in a position to win again because they managed to stay together and add to their team, something that has yet to happen post-lockout. But even that isn't guaranteed (1999)

[norrisnick 1]

You forgot the other trend. Montreal has won a cup every single decade...

[PavelHossyukstrom 0]

http://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/news;_ylt=AuPK...n&type=lgns

It ain't gonna be easy.

[SouthernWingsFan 854]

Sorry, if this is a repeat topic. I haven't seen it recently.

You hear a lot about how it's too hard to repeat, it just doesn't happen that often. It's true that it is a lot harder than it used to be (with more teams, salary caps, free-agency, etc.).

But, I would argue that the Wings are due to repeat if you look at the history of Stanley Cup winners. The ten years that has gone by since the last time the Wings won back-to-back Cups is the longest stretch without repeat winners ever. Teams have won back-to-back championships in every decade except this one, and this year (2009)is the last chance to do it.

97, 98 Detroit

91, 92 Pittsburgh

87, 88 Edmonton

84, 85 Edmonton

80, 81, 82,83 Islanders

76, 77, 78, 79 Montreal

74, 75 Philadelphia

68, 69 Montreal

65, 66 Montreal

62, 63, 64 Toronto

56, 57, 58, 59, 60 Montreal

54, 55 Detroit

47, 48, 49 Toronto

Nice for references and comparisons and a pretty interesting way of looking at things, but here's my 2 pennies, and keep in mind I can be a pretty big imbecile...

More often than not I think you repeat as a champion, or just winning one championship any given year, largely because of a combination of your roster being just so good, luck, good health, being hot during the postseason, as well as inferior competition to some degree.

I've only watched hockey since the mid-90s so I've only seen one repeat in terms of the Wins, and Montreal and the NY Islanders put together solid runs before I started watching. In the NBA, the Celtics had an 8-year defense one time, and Chicago had two 3-peats when Jordan-Scottie Pippen were with the Bulls.

So, a very talented roster in any sport can help in a repeat. And, the Wings certainly have such a roster on paper to give them a realistic chance at repeating. Games aren't played though on paper or in a sports forum, a team has to have other good things going for them as explained above.

[Guest LivingtheDream]

I find basing things off the past and trying to use that information to predict something in the future to be rather silly. You go with the information at hand. The Wings are more talented this year than last and winning a Stanley Cup with the core they have now is a huge step, they all know what it takes now. They play like they should and it shouldn't be a problem. Of course there are other factors that come into play; hot teams, injuries, etc. Regardless, they play like they should there isn't a reason why they aren't at least in the SCF.

Dalls27, you are smart. The Gambler's Fallacy is to base odds on some past occurrence influencing a future occurrence. Like believing a coin toss is likely to be heads if it was tails the past two times. The odds are still the same 50-50 on each flp. Though there is a connection between a hockey team from one season to another, the smart thing is to look at the teams for this season alone and the Wings got it all. Of course as you mentioned there are other factors like injuries, heavy travel in the post season and goal tending, but your way of thinking is the way to go.

[Rivalred 630]

You forgot the other trend. Montreal has won a cup every single decade...

They can have it in 2009/2010

[Z and D for the C 712]

Wasn't it destiny for dallas to come back from 3-0 as well?

[Echolalia 2,961]

Its definitely going to be difficult to repeat. They have to go through another 82 game grind without suffering from critical injuries with the entire league wanting to beat the new team to beat, both on the scoreboard and physically. Assuming we get that far, there are four seven game series' versing the absolute best of the best, with the Wings still being the team to beat (although moreso, because its in the playoffs). That's a mental and physical grind in itself. Not to mention if something were to happen by February, we don't have the salary cap space to bail us out this time. We will be one of a handful of teams to most likely not improve in anyway come the trade deadline, with most of our biggest competitors most likely gaining key acquisitions for a deep cup run.

But if I could pick any single team in history to take a stab at bringing home the cup this year, I'd feel pretty comfortable with picking the team the Wings have on paper right now.

[Nev 1,085]

I've actually thought about this quite a bit, as to why no-one has repeated in the last 10 years, and here are my thoughts on the matter

'99, Dallas - At that time there were 3 elite teams in the WC, any one of which could have been conference champion each and every year with nothing to seperate them. From '94 to '02 only 3 teams won the Western Conference: Detroit, Dallas and Colorado. Point being, repeating out of the west was VERY difficult at that time

'00, New Jersery - the other elite team in the NHL in this period

'01 Colorado - Their turn

'02, Detroit - our turn.

'03, New Jersey - Ooh look, one of the big 4 again

'04, Tampa Bay - First time in 9 (NINE) years that one of the Big 4 aren't the champs. TB are a good, well coached team with some star players

'06, Carolina - Then the lockout happened, TB couldn't cope with the cap, 3 of the big 4 went into decline, parity came into the leaugue and Carolina had a Cindarella year.

'07, Anaheim - Carolina then (as is their way) went back to being an ugly sister. Did anyone expect them to repeat? Anyone? Bueller? Anyone?

'08, Detroit - We all know what happened after the Ducks won the cup (muwahahaha) and them being bounced out of the playoffs wasn't really a surprise to anyone.

So to summarise - for 4 years there were 4 elite teams battling for the cup every year. To repeat in that situation was near impossible. After that 3 different teams each had a great season, then were unable to cope with the loss of key players the following year.

Detroit on the other hand have almost their entire roster intact and have added an elite player to boot.. They are built (and coached) for the playoffs and have no-one in their conferences that scare them like Colorado, Dallas (and to a lesser extent) Anaheim used to.

To repeat will still be difficult - injuries, a cinderalla team, or the players tuning out Babcocks hard-ass style can undo them - but nevertheless, I believe that the 08-09 Detroit Redwings have the best chance of repeating of any team since the '98 Wings.

[heyfolks 8]

Evidence of the past builds faith in the future.

[55fan 5,133]

I think it's harder to repeat now than in the past due to expansion teams.

I also think that the Wings have a brilliant chance this year.

I would also like to wish Nev a happy belated b-day.

[k3sparks 1]

'03, New Jersey - Ooh look, one of the big 4 again

Who would you guys consider the big four now???

I would have to say

1. Us

2. Montreal - best chance of coming out of the East this year

3. San Jose - even though they haven't won one, and their window is closing

4. Pitt maybe otherwise Anaheim only because they won it 2 years ago, can't think of another elite team.

obviously we are number 1. 2 3 4 could be pretty much anyone right now i guess

[Opie 308]

By big 4 I think he meant that in a span of about 8-10 years there were 4 teams that won the cup, there is no big 4 any more, just a big 1. And even that is probably the Homer in me coming out. What made the Big 4 special at that time was that Dal, Col, Det, and NJ were pretty much playing for the championship every year. A Det/Col WCF was pretty much the SCF.

[k3sparks 1]

By big 4 I think he meant that in a span of about 8-10 years there were 4 teams that won the cup, there is no big 4 any more, just a big 1. And even that is probably the Homer in me coming out. What made the Big 4 special at that time was that Dal, Col, Det, and NJ were pretty much playing for the championship every year. A Det/Col WCF was pretty much the SCF.

i know there is no big 4 anymore. i was just trying to see if anyone could name 3 other title contenders. I guess now it comes down to the fact that nobody can name 1 other title contender. I know we are Homers for thinking the wings are the only one, but thats the reason we belong to this site.

[T.Low 1,011]

Is it time to stick a fork in Ottawa, are they done like dinner?

[motorcitykid 42]

Its definitely going to be difficult to repeat. They have to go through another 82 game grind without suffering from critical injuries with the entire league wanting to beat the new team to beat, both on the scoreboard and physically.

I don't buy that much at all. Every year, the Wings ARE THE TEAM TO BEAT. Hello?

Anaheim for example won previously, but it wasn't like they are considered, year in, year out, to be tops in the league in just about every damn department on AND OFF the ice, as the Wings are. Wings coming to town? Everbody notices!

History is fun to look at, but I also don't hold much stock in that. Dominik retires, Ty comes in to backup Ozzie, who worked extremely hard this summer to elevate his game even more.

Hossa replaces Drake.

On paper this team looks ridiculously good. And no matter who's pencilled in where, Hank & Pavel are definitely on their way to opening even more eyes this season and leading this team [although them winning anything less than 10 Cups and people will still put players like Phaneuf on sports games and harely talk about them. *insert mandatory Crosby insult here*].

The Wings, like any team need some luck, and good health to repeat to be sure. But based on what they've accomplished last season, make NO mistake, they WILL NOT embarrass themselves like so many before them, after just winning. Win or lose, I go into this season more confident than last year. We now know what this team, led by the Euro-twins, can do. It's only UP from here for this team.

Edited September 30, 2008 by motorcitykid

[Never_Retire_Steve 35]

Statistically, it is much harder to repeat in a league with 30 teams than it is with 6 so that definately has to be taken into consideration. Also, this salary cap will affect things from here on out as well.

Having said that, I can't remember a Red Wings team I was so confident in repeating as Cup champs. I mean Detroit has to be HEAVY favorites this year. In 99 I thought we would pull off the trifecta but alas it was not to be and I think that was more due to us winning the past two cups in 8 combined games.

[Opie 308]

It is no more difficult to win the second cup than it is the first.