Leino

[Datsyerberger 279]

If anything, the numbers further prove the Wings have zero chance of retaining Hossa. It just can't work if the Wings are going to retain balance up front.

Just out of the sake of trying out, here's Hossa at some crazy 1 yr $5m deal (with the idea of signing him at more the next year, a scenario which I think is highly unlikely) with my previous numbers.

Assuming each one of Franzen/Flip/Hudler makes 3m, I drop the latter 2 because we get picks for them, and retain Franzen.

ZDH (7 + 6.7 + 2.25) = 15.95

Leino - Franzen - Hossa (3 + 5 + .9) = 8.9

Cleary - Helm - .5/yr player= (2.85 + .6 + .5) = 3.95

.5/yr player - Draper - Maltby = (.5 + 1.58 + .88) = 2.96

12 forwards = ~31.76 (Exact same number as the other scenario!)

Lids - Raffi (7.45 +6) = 13.45

Kronwall - Stuart (3 + 3.75) = 6.75

Lilja - Ericsson (1.1 + .9) = 2

Lebda = .65

Meech = .5

8 d-men (one who can be 13th forward) = ~23.65

Osgood = 1.4

Howard = .75 (or Larsson at .85, not a substantial difference

2 goalies = ~2.15

22 man roster 31.76 + 23.65 + 2.15 = 57.56

Yea, with a 56m cap, unless Hossa takes a $3m 1 year deal (lol) or we lose Franzen as well and replace him with a 1m/yr player (or 2 .5/yr players for a 23 man roster), Hossa just isn't gonna work. That's Hossa signing at 5/yr, losing all 4 of Franzen, Sammy, Hudler, and Flip, or Hossa signing at 3/yr, losing Sammy, and losing 2 of Franzen, Hudler, and Flip.

We don't keep Hossa unless we don't get Z, or both Franzen and Hudler's agents are entirely unreasonable, imo.

Edited January 22, 2009 by Datsyerberger

[NeverForgetMac25 483]

Just out of the sake of trying out, here's Hossa at some crazy 1 yr $5m deal (with the idea of signing him at more the next year, a scenario which I think is highly unlikely) with my previous numbers.

Assuming each one makes 3m of Franzen/Flip/Hudler, I drop the latter 2 because we get picks for them, and retain Franzen.

ZDH (7 + 6.7 + 2.25) = 15.95

Leino - Franzen - Hossa (3 + 5 + .9) = 8.9

Cleary - Helm - .5/yr player= (2.85 + .6 + .5) = 3.95

.5/yr player - Draper - Maltby = (.5 + 1.58 + .88) = 2.96

12 forwards = ~31.76 (Exact same number as the other scenario!)

Lids - Raffi (7.45 +6) = 13.45

Kronwall - Stuart (3 + 3.75) = 6.75

Lilja - Ericsson (1.1 + .9) = 2

Lebda = .65

Meech = .5

8 d-men (one who can be 13th forward) = ~23.65

Osgood = 1.4

Howard = .75 (or Larsson at .85, not a substantial difference

2 goalies = ~2.15

22 man roster 31.76 + 23.65 + 2.15 = 57.56

Yea, with a 56m cap, unless Hossa takes a $3m 1 year deal (lol) or we lose Franzen as well and replace him with a 1m/yr player (or 2 .5/yr players for a 23 man roster), Hossa just isn't gonna work. That's Hossa signing at 5/yr, losing all 4 of Franzen, Sammy, Hudler, and Flip, or Hossa signing at 3/yr, losing Sammy, and losing 2 of Franzen, Hudler, and Flip.

We don't keep Hossa unless we don't get Z, or both Franzen and Hudler's agents are entirely unreasonable, imo.

Exactly...its just isn't in the cards. I know there's far too many people here that are going to overreact, but this team adding both Z and Hossa to its long-term roster completely destroys the offensive depth. Not to mention, think if one (or both) of them went down for an extended period of time.

[Datsyerberger 279]

Exactly...its just isn't in the cards. I know there's far too many people here that are going to overreact but this team adding both Z and Hossa to its long-term roster completely destroys the offensive depth. Not to mention, think one (or both) of them went down for an extended period of time.

The line at the top of your sig wins this thread.

[NeverForgetMac25 483]

Front-loading is how I expect Z at 7m/yr to work. It may work for Franzen as well, and get him down to 3m/yr, since he's 30. I think Sammy is going to get 1.5m/yr (or likely more) whether its front-loaded or not, and I don't think Hudler is going to take a contract smaller than 3m/yr unless it's frontloaded.

Again, using those numbers, any 2 of Franzen/Flip/Hudler for a combined 6m/year = Sammy gone (plus the odd man out). I think we're most likely to keep Franzen.. he's our only big body top 6, and we don't get anything if we lose him to UFA. We can trade Flip for picks and/or a good cheap energy player and we can lose Hudler to RFA for picks. Therefore, I think we retain Franzen, and keep one of those 2, gaining picks for the one lost, and lose Sammy to UFA. We have players trying to claw their way up from GR that we can replace Sammy and Flip or Hudler with.. Leino and Helm.

While Hudler has excelled this year, keep in mind that he's still a RFA. He could most certainly take the Wings to arbitration but I could see him signing a decent-term deal in the ballpark of $2.5 million. That doesn't help much, but its a start. Besides, Hudler has been a great depth player whether he's been on the second or the fourth line. If the injury bug hits, I'd feel a lot more comfortable with Hudler out there than I would with Leino or Helm.

[NeverForgetMac25 483]

The line at the top of your sig wins this thread.

That gem of mine was inspired by the countless amount of goalie threads we've had. It never ceased to amaze me how short-sighted and biased some members could be when it came to their favorite players.

[Datsyerberger 279]

While Hudler has excelled this year, keep in mind that he's still a RFA. He could most certainly take the Wings to arbitration but I most certainly could see him signing a decent-term deal in the ballpark of $2.5 million. That doesn't help much, but its a start. Besides, Hudler has been a great depth player whether he's been on the second or the fourth line. If the injury bug hits, I'd feel a lot more comfortable with Hudler out there than I would with Leino or Helm.

I've optimistically tossed out that number for Hudler a few times. I just generally work around the idea that any 2 of Hudler, Flip, and Franzen is probably going to equal ~6m.

[alienanxiety 23]

God, the DEAD WEIGHT on this team is going to bite them on the ass if it ruins the devlopment of their youth. Helm, Lieno, Erricson, should all be given a NHL shot right now. loyalty is all well and good - but it was not very foreward thinking to give maltby and draper such long contracts. i recall draper signed his after his magical one season scoring spree, but maltby was resigning atthe tie was a total shock to me, and multi-year to boot. draper i can see keeping maybe one more season for character, leadership, and faceoffs, but maltby, kopecky, mccarty, chelios, and meech can take a walk.

i don't think the wings will be able to deal flip for anything decent with his oversized contract.

Edited January 22, 2009 by alienanxiety

[CenterIce 83]

There is no such thing as front loading contracts in the current NHL CBA. They take the average salary over the entire contract, not just the year to year salary values to figure the cap hit.

[NeverForgetMac25 483]

There is no such thing as front loading contracts in the current NHL CBA. They take the average salary over the entire contract, not just the year to year salary values to figure the cap hit.

Yes there is. Front loading a contract allows a player to get paid a larger chunk of their salary up front, which gives the player incentive to sign a lower *cap hit* deal. That''s the point of a front-loaded contract. While the cap hit doesn't vary (I.E. It's the average salary over the entire contract), the money up front allows the player make up some money lost through other means.

[Frozen-Man 144]

There is no such thing as front loading contracts in the current NHL CBA. They take the average salary over the entire contract, not just the year to year salary values to figure the cap hit.

That is true but not the point they were trying to make. In fact, if it wasn't the average front loading the contract would be a horrible idea and really hurt the Wings. They have cap problems next year and front loading the contract would only make it worse unless you get to take the average. The reason that front loading is so good for teams is that you can sign them to a long contract and give the player 15M the first year and 8M then next year and and so on until they are paid very little (comparatively) the last few years. This gets the overall cap hit lower but gives the player the majority of the cash in the first few years. The time value of money makes 15M worth much more in year one than it does if the player doesn't get the money till year 9 or 10. If they invest the money getting an 8% return and reinvest they can double their money in 10 years. This gives the player a lot more overall cash if they are wise with the money (conversely it also costs the team a lot more money to front load the contract because that is cash that they could have held onto and used - but I think the Wings are willing to deal with that).

[Nogood 0]

That is true but not the point they were trying to make. In fact, if it wasn't the average front loading the contract would be a horrible idea and really hurt the Wings. They have cap problems next year and front loading the contract would only make it worse unless you get to take the average. The reason that front loading is so good for teams is that you can sign them to a long contract and give the player 15M the first year and 8M then next year and and so on until they are paid very little (comparatively) the last few years. This gets the overall cap hit lower but gives the player the majority of the cash in the first few years. The time value of money makes 15M worth much more in year one than it does if the player doesn't get the money till year 9 or 10. If they invest the money getting an 8% return and reinvest they can double their money in 10 years. This gives the player a lot more overall cash if they are wise with the money (conversely it also costs the team a lot more money to front load the contract because that is cash that they could have held onto and used - but I think the Wings are willing to deal with that).

Illitch should just give him $65 million the first season. Hes the future captain after all, time to break the piggy bank.

[Frozen-Man 144]

Illitch should just give him $65 million the first season. Hes the future captain after all, time to break the piggy bank.

There are still rules to the front loading, the biggest being that you can't drop more than 50% in salary in between the first and second years.

[egroen 384]

i don't think the wings will be able to deal flip for anything decent with his oversized contract.

It is a fine contract... for a 2nd line center.

Especially one who is solid defensively, is young, can put up decent points and steps it up in the playoffs.

It could end up being a great contract -- I just don't know if the Wings have the luxury of waiting it out.

Plenty of team would love to have Filppula at that amount, and he would get a nice return in a trade.

[Drake_Marcus 890]

Hmmm... I just made a spread-sheet in excel to figure some of this stuff out.

First I dumped Chelios, Lebda, Kopecky and Conklin.

Then I added Leino at his current salary for two seasons (seems like a standard entry level contract for an unknown with his credentials).

Howard and Ericsson were added to the list because A) both are out of minor league options and B) Ericsson being added to the third line in the 09/10 season has been Holland's plan since he re-signed him.

I also added Helm to the roster due to his price, need for NHL time and the holes that will be left in the roster after people walk.

So, our current roster, minus Lebda, Chelios, Kopecky and Conklin, and plus Howard, Ericsson, Helm and Leino would cost $43,657,777. Assuming the cap stays flat, that leaves $13,042,223 to sign Hossa, Zetterberg, Hudler, Franzen and Sammy.

A recent article out of Sweden says Z is going to get $7,113,221 a year for 10 years (or exactly 60 million Kroners a year). Let's factor that into the equation:

Cap hit: $50,770,998

Left: $5,929,002

Players left: Hossa, Hudler, Franzen and Sammy

Now, Hudler will stay here unless someone throws him a ridiculous offer sheet ($4million+). He's 24 and the best offensive player we've got in the entire organization under the age of 28. The Wings would take a huge hit in terms of depth if they loose him. So let's say he gets the identical contract to Filppula.

Cap hit: $53,770,998

Left: $2,929,002

Players left: Hossa, Franzen, Sammy

That means that Hossa or Franzen could be signed IF one of the following players is removed from the books: Filppula, Cleary, Holmstrom, Stuart. Holmstrom would really only happen if he retired. So basically, someone has to be moved.

I'm saying now, though, I think Franzen's going to be harder to sign than Hossa will. That's based on each player's agent and their respective stages in their careers (in terms of money earned and expected future earnings).

[Nogood 0]

There are still rules to the front loading, the biggest being that you can't drop more than 50% in salary in between the first and second years.

It was a joke....

The only way Z gets this privilege is if he takes a Datsyuk deal clone.

All of this discussion of the economy and investing is pointless. There will always be a better offer, if not multiple offers from other teams.

[egroen 384]

Cap hit: $53,770,998

Left: $2,929,002

Players left: Hossa, Franzen, Sammy

I think you are safe in adding 2% to the cap for next year, bringing it to $57.83m or an additional $1.13m.

I have heard as much as a 5% increase, but 2% seems safe.

Edited January 22, 2009 by egroen

[Never_Retire_Steve 35]

This thread depresses me but I would really like to see Leino and Helm next year but I have a bad feeling that the wrong type of guys are going to be replaced.

[Drake_Marcus 890]

I think you are safe in adding 2% to the cap for next year, bringing it to $57.83m or an additional $1.13m.

I have heard as much as a 5% increase, but 2% seems safe.

Basically, what it comes down to is:

Hudler + Filppula *or* Franzen + Samuelsson (with Filppula traded)

In that case it's really tough. Hudler and Filppula are both 24 years old. Franzen is 28 and fairly injury prone (mostly due to his style of game). Samuelsson doesn't have upside, but he does provide a lot of depth in terms of scoring, PK and PP.

I wish there was some way of making Hudler + Franzen (with Filppula traded) work.

[egroen 384]

In that case it's really tough. Hudler and Filppula are both 24 years old. Franzen is 28 and fairly injury prone (mostly due to his style of game). Samuelsson doesn't have upside, but he does provide a lot of depth in terms of scoring, PK and PP.

I wish there was some way of making Hudler + Franzen (with Filppula traded) work.

Actually, if you let Franzen walk you can keep Hudler, Fillpula and Samuelsson.

In order to keep Franzen one of Filppula or Hudler needs to go.

Franzen + Hudler/Filppula *or* Hudler + Filppula + Samuelsson

[Frozen-Man 144]

It was a joke....

The only way Z gets this privilege is if he takes a Datsyuk deal clone.

All of this discussion of the economy and investing is pointless. There will always be a better offer, if not multiple offers from other teams.

Of course there will be better offers from other teams there always will be for almost any player that stays with the team. As for the discussion of the economy and investing being pointless, that is ridiculous. All you have to do is look around the league and you will see many players who have taken frontloaded deals for a lower total contract price because they can invest the money if they have it now. From everything that I have read Z will get a long contract, it will be right about 7 to 7.1M average cap hit and it will be frontloaded to get the overall cap hit down. Z will almost definitely get this "privilege" (even though it is not a privilege but merely another term to be negotiated in the give and take just like amount, length, NTC, and other options) and he will get it because it allows the Wings to pay him less overall and thus lower the cap hit that the team will take. Its not about some special privilege that Z will get its about the team getting a lower cap hit in exchange for Z getting more money in the first few years.

[Drake_Marcus 890]

Actually, if you let Franzen walk you can keep Hudler, Fillpula and Samuelsson.

In order to keep Franzen one of Filppula or Hudler needs to go.

Franzen + Hudler/Filppula *or* Hudler + Filppula + Samuelsson

In that case it depends completely on how Franzen performs between now and the end of the playoffs. If he's as dominant as he was before I'd go Franzen + Hudler. If he regresses we know he's not trending up to superstar level and thus doesn't deserve superstar money.

[Datsyerberger 279]

*snip for length*

Cap hit: $53,770,998

Left: $2,929,002

Players left: Hossa, Franzen, Sammy

That means that Hossa or Franzen could be signed IF one of the following players is removed from the books: Filppula, Cleary, Holmstrom, Stuart. Holmstrom would really only happen if he retired. So basically, someone has to be moved.

I'm saying now, though, I think Franzen's going to be harder to sign than Hossa will. That's based on each player's agent and their respective stages in their careers (in terms of money earned and expected future earnings).

Yep. And that's why I say trade Flip.

Cleary, NTC. Stuart, NTC. Homer isn't going anywhere. Flip = only option, and considering he's currently just a PK specialist on a PK loaded team, and doesn't put up near the numbers of Happy and the Mule right now...

[Detroit # 1 Fan 2,204]

If he earns his spot next year, good for him. He can have Sammys spot, but he better not pull the Grigerenko premadonna act, we saw what happens when you pull that s***.

[Andy Pred 48 337]

I recall an interview with Holland on the radio a couple of weeks back were he stated that next year will see 3 or 4 guys coming to the team from Grand Rapids. Which guys he didn't say but you can all sumise who the are. My headscratcher is who is going out the door.

I got a funny feeling that Hossa might get the nod over Franzen and Sammy staying.

[ShanahanMan 473]

I'm so confused why Kenny hasn't brought up this kid. He looked AMAZING in the pre-season. Didn't he have like 5 goals? I've been waiting to see what this kid has and I would be utterly disappointed if we never get a chance to see him play with the Wings.

I say throw Kopecky on waivers (we wont miss him) and bring up Leino......something I've been waiting for to happen for the whole season now.