Filppula has the most Even Strength points after Z, D, Hossa

[Z and D for the C 712]

Yes. The $3M deal was based on the assumption that Filppula would, in time, be worth the money. However, that was prior to 1) The possibility of Hossa taking some 6M to stay here, or even the retention of Hossa in general, becoming more and more feasible 2) The continuation of Franzen's goal scoring prowess, that would bump him up on the value scale; and 3) the continual improvement of Jiri Hudler.

Simply put, Filppula's contract was based on his potential at the time when Hudler, Hossa, and Franzen were not distinct competitors for Filppula's roster spot, ice time, and cap space.

Let's pretend for a second that Ken Holland is pretty good at what he does and his prediction that flip will become an extremely talented scoring/2 way forward in like 2 years is correct. He'll be better than both hudler and franzen. Is he worth the wait?

[YoungGuns1340 1]

They probably would. But they don't. And doesn't the fact that he has so much more ESTOI than all those guys indicate that he's better than them overall? I mean if PPTOI indicates better offensive ability, wouldn't ESTOI indicate better ability period?

I think its more an indication of the Red Wings philosophy, which is to balance all aspects of ice time in all regards. An illustration of that would be the fact that Datsyuk is a Top 5 forward in the NHL, yet his time on the powerplay ranks 88th overall. He plays 3:22 per game when, if he were to be best utilized, he'd see 4-5 minutes instead. Same thing if you take a look at the penalty kill. The fact that Zetterberg is our #1 choice when its a 3 on 5 says hes our #1 PKer. But in PKing ice time among forwards, he ranks 3rd behind Draper and Cleary, and doesn't even average 2 minutes of ice time per game. In general, Draper has the most PK time with only 2:12 per game (92nd in the NHL in that respect) whereas most teams #1 forward Pker would see over 3 minutes SHTOI per game. The Wings operate so as not to overuse or wear out any one particular player.

It has always been the Wings MO to balance the ice time, and the fact that Filppula's role on the team is likely the most amorphous of any speaks to his ESTOI. Draper, Maltby, and Kopecky are here to provide energy and checking (they don't really do that, but thats another debate). Sammy is a secondary scorer whos meal ticket is the fact that he can play the point. Hudler is here to put up points and set up his linemates. Homer and Franzen are supposed to be the net front presence. And then of course Hossa, Hank, and Datsyuk are, in general, supposed to do it all. That leaves Cleary and Filppula. But even Cleary is used more often in specific roles - playing the net when injuries occur, being a physical forward, and being our #2 PKer. That leaves Filppula. What is it exactly that Filppula does? He's 10th in PPTOI per game, and hes 5th in PKTOI per game. Hes not a net front presence, isn't a particularly great plamaker, isn't a great goal scorer, and isn't physical. What he is, in my opinion, is a fresh player that is tossed around when the team needs a change, or a line needs a boost. Hes a complement. Hes a great substitute when a player on a line needs a rest. Hes a utility player, and in general, the coaching staff is likely still trying to figure out just exactly what role they want Filppula in.

Edited February 15, 2009 by YoungGuns1340

[YoungGuns1340 1]

I respect that you have your own opinion. With that said, I'm not the only one who sees Filps potential, Holland and Co., the masters in the game, the best in the National Hockey Legue, the bid dogs and masterminds who get paid big bucks to know more than anyone else in the world, also sees Flips potential.

Lastly, Holland is a consistent person. He's known to make the "safe" moves (or non-moves)...when was the last time Holland traded a young, playoff contending (proven) player with a long term favorable contract? A player with definite more upside in his game and, perhaps half (or more) of a Zetterberg-type-caliber...?

Actually, Holland and co. saw Filppula's potential last season. I'm not saying that they don't now - we have no way of knowing what they really think, as Holland isn't one to publicly degrade his own players - but I'm not going to sit here and suggest that Holland still thinks giving Stuart 3.75M per year or letting Quincey go via he waiver wire were good ideas. My guess is if Holland had the choice again, he still would've retained Filppula, but would've opted for a much shorter contract that offered more flexibility.

Also, you can't use history as some sort of indicator in a post-cap world thats a mere 3 off-seasons old. When was the last time Holland was operating under the salary cap and actually did have an overpaid forward on the books without an NTC and with 3 other valuable forwards to re-sign who are all out-producing Filppula in a few, or many, regards? And with the salary cap expected to decrease in the coming yeras? Any pre-existing conditions are no match for the situation Holland is in now.

[titanium2 867]

One can make the same argument that there is nothing that says Hossa and/or Franzen will resign with the Wings. There's 'speculation' that Hossa *wants* to sign with the Wings, but then again, the Pittsburgh Penguins organization was under the impression that Hossa *wanted* to sign (long term) with them. If this is true, then Hossa has a history of misleading...

To be fair, when he was in Pittsburgh, he said he would take less to be on a good team. He never specified which team, but Pens fans understood that to mean, "He's going to resign, yay!" Lately he's been a little more specific. "Everybody knows if you want to stay here (Detroit), you have to take less, so yes (I'll take less)."

[Nev 1,085]

Nobody hates Flip that I've seen, just that if we have to lose somebody, his has SEEMINGLY stopped developing and so would be a good choice. He's still a solid player.

Oh really? You do know he has already set a career high in assists this season and is on course for a career high in points?

Anyway, enough of arguing about the maths, lets ask Mike Babcock shall we?

I think Fil's really playing with tons of confidence. He was a good player last year down the stretch. He's really got it going right now They got some real chemistry building, and that's what we want. And Hossa's as good a player as there is in the league.

The challenge for Fil, and I challenge him all the time with this, is I think he has a chance to be an upper-echelon player in the league if he gets to the puck more and shoots the puck more, because he can do everything else.He might be the best skater (at center) on our team, and yet (Darren) Helm is a pretty good skater, too. So when you look at it, he's so powerful it makes it hard to defend.

Those things will come for him. When Pavel (Datsyuk) first got here, he never shot the puck either. That's the same growth pattern that Fil's on.

http://www.mlive.com/redwings/index.ssf/20...ula_not_sc.html

[Aussie_Wing 354]

Nobody hates Flip that I've seen, just that if we have to lose somebody, his has SEEMINGLY stopped developing and so would be a good choice. He's still a solid player.

Is this a joke? He's SEEMINGLY stopped developing, at 24? He hasn't nearly reached his peak yet to to think he has is plain stupidity.

[Aussie_Wing 354]

Oh really? You do know he has already set a career high in assists this season and is on course for a career high in points?

Anyway, enough of arguing about the maths, lets ask Mike Babcock shall we?

http://www.mlive.com/redwings/index.ssf/20...ula_not_sc.html

Thankyou so much for posting that. Chances of Filppula being traded: 0%.

All anyone needs to do is to read this and you'll get an idea of how highly Babcock and co rate him. He's here for a long, long time is Flip.

[FinRedWing 172]

He wouldn't have gotten that salary if Hossa had signed first.

Didn't Hossa get signed July 3rd or something like that and Filppula on July 30th?

Or did you mean Hossa's possible re-signing?

[Reds4Life 51]

And Filppula doesn't play against top lines. He is average offensively imho.

[Yzersyukstromberg 0]

I think his point was that if Ken Holland and the Wings organization say you have some major potential, there is probably a million percent chance you have some major potential.

Understood, but not every player's potential is realized. ie; Anders Eriksson. They thought that guy was going to be a stud D-man....and it didn't happen. All I'm saying is that even Kenny Holland might just once make the slight mistake of overpaying for a player who he believes will realize his potential at a later date...while that's yet to be seen with Flip, it just gives us a possible option if we need to move salary in order to keep some more valuable parts of the team around.

[Yzersyukstromberg 0]

I respect that you have your own opinion. With that said, I'm not the only one who sees Filps potential, Holland and Co., the masters in the game, the best in the National Hockey Legue, the bid dogs and masterminds who get paid big bucks to know more than anyone else in the world, also sees Flips potential.

Lastly, Holland is a consistent person. He's known to make the "safe" moves (or non-moves)...when was the last time Holland traded a young, playoff contending (proven) player with a long term favorable contract? A player with definite more upside in his game and, perhaps half (or more) of a Zetterberg-type-caliber...?

I agree with you, Kenny Holland and his posse are the best in the business, hands down. My suggestion however is that with the other UFAs the Wings are trying to sign, maybe the wait to realize Flip's potential just isn't worth it at the moment. Because of this potential that we all see that he has, he's a valuable trade commodity. Other teams will obviously see it, and because of that, he might just fetch us a solid return in a trade to a non-contender looking to build for the future. It's completely reasonable to think that Val might turn into a solid 2-way player in the future, but as for right now, it just seems like $3 mil/yr is alot to pay for a guy who's only contributing mainly on the defensive side of the puck, while we're sitting here trying to figure out ways to free up money so that we don't lose guys like Hossa, Mule, Huds or even Sammy. I guess my main point is that the timing for Val just seems to be wrong.

[Doggy 130]

Didn't Hossa get signed July 3rd or something like that and Filppula on July 30th?

Or did you mean Hossa's possible re-signing?

Yeah, I don't know about the dates but Hossa was signed first.

[Z and D for the C 712]

Amazing game for flip.

[Drake_Marcus 890]

Thankyou so much for posting that. Chances of Filppula being traded: 0%.

All anyone needs to do is to read this and you'll get an idea of how highly Babcock and co rate him. He's here for a long, long time is Flip.

Yeah- f*** the salary cap I want all the players I like to get paid the money they deserve and play for the Wings regardless of what the final total is for the team.

*sigh*

Where's your quote saying Filppula's more valuable to this team than Hudler? Hossa?

Because I've got a spread sheet sitting right here that tells the truth of why Filppula's the odd man out.

Assume we can get Hossa for the exact same contract as Zetterberg

Next, Holland has to bring Ericsson and Howard up next season because they're out of options in the minors. If he doesn't bring them up we lose them to waivers. So Conklin isn't retained and Lebda is moved in favour of keeping the cheaper Meech. Kopecky, McCarty, Chelios and Downey are released as well. Helm is brought up from GR full time because he's too good to stay and he's dirt cheap.

Roster spots empty: 3. Free agents remaining: Leino, Samuelsson, Franzen, Hudler. Cash: $1,757,223 (assuming the cap is identical to this year's cap, any rise would just provide breathing room)

Ok, so you have to sign 3 players with under 2 million. That's $585,741 a person. Which of Leino, Sammy, Mule or Huds can you get for that price? Zero. So let's just buy up 3 scrubs at $585k each. Wait, let's throw Meech up into the line-up as a forward just to stay super-cheap. Ok, so now we have $878,611.5 per scrub. Nice! Still can't get Leino for that unless we're going to throw a massively long contract at him.

Line-Up:

Zetterberg - Datsyuk - Holmstrom

Hossa - Filppula - Cleary

Maltby - Draper - Helm

Meech - Scrub - Scrub

Lidstrom - Rafalski

Kronwall - Stuart

Ericsson - Lilja

Osgood

Howard

Lost: Hudler, Franzen, Samuelsson, Leino, and the ability to call someone up without using long term injured reserve to free cap space.

Translation:

Lost: Scoring depth.

Filppula's 3 million dollar contract kills the probability of this team being able to keep Hossa without destroying scoring depth and ruining the team (if Maltby - Draper - Helm is the best we can come up with on the third line next season we've taken a significant downturn).

It's been made very clear that the Wings would like to keep Hossa.

Hudler is more valuable to the team than Filppula AND he's a better player than Filppula.

Significant changes will occur with this team, and without dropping a large salary the team is f***ed.

Filppula's contract is the only one that's large enough to free significant cap room and doesn't have a no trade clause.

The Wings will have to lose players they like this summer. It is impossible to keep everyone. Filppula is not safe because he's got a bright future when the people he's shoving aside are more valuable to the team.

In summary:

Anyone who thinks Filppula's spot on this roster next year is 100% safe is lying to themselves.

[Konnan511 1,736]

Line-Up:

Zetterberg - Datsyuk - Holmstrom

Hossa - Filppula - Cleary

Maltby - Draper - Helm

Meech - Scrub - Scrub

Lidstrom - Rafalski

Kronwall - Stuart

Ericsson - Lilja

Osgood

Howard

Lost: Hudler, Franzen, Samuelsson, Leino, and the ability to call someone up without using long term injured reserve to free cap space.

In summary:

Anyone who thinks Filppula's spot on this roster next year is 100% safe is lying to themselves.

Oh this is fun!

Z-D-H

Franz-Flip-Leino/Cleary

FA Vet - Helm- Cleary/Leino

Maltby - Draper - GR Griff

Lids - Raf

Kronners - Stu

Lils - GR Griff

If we win the cup:

Ozzie

Larsson

If we lose the cup:

FA Vet

Ozzie

Anyone who thinks that Filppula will be gone by next season is absolutely lying to themselves.

Hell, if Kronners play begins to regress again, he might be dealt at the trade deadline for a soon to be FA Vet and that'd free up even more space.

[Z and D for the C 712]

Yeah- f*** the salary cap I want all the players I like to get paid the money they deserve and play for the Wings regardless of what the final total is for the team.

*sigh*

Where's your quote saying Filppula's more valuable to this team than Hudler? Hossa?

Because I've got a spread sheet sitting right here that tells the truth of why Filppula's the odd man out.

Assume we can get Hossa for the exact same contract as Zetterberg

Next, Holland has to bring Ericsson and Howard up next season because they're out of options in the minors. If he doesn't bring them up we lose them to waivers. So Conklin isn't retained and Lebda is moved in favour of keeping the cheaper Meech. Kopecky, McCarty, Chelios and Downey are released as well. Helm is brought up from GR full time because he's too good to stay and he's dirt cheap.

Roster spots empty: 3. Free agents remaining: Leino, Samuelsson, Franzen, Hudler. Cash: $1,757,223 (assuming the cap is identical to this year's cap, any rise would just provide breathing room)

Ok, so you have to sign 3 players with under 2 million. That's $585,741 a person. Which of Leino, Sammy, Mule or Huds can you get for that price? Zero. So let's just buy up 3 scrubs at $585k each. Wait, let's throw Meech up into the line-up as a forward just to stay super-cheap. Ok, so now we have $878,611.5 per scrub. Nice! Still can't get Leino for that unless we're going to throw a massively long contract at him.

Line-Up:

Zetterberg - Datsyuk - Holmstrom

Hossa - Filppula - Cleary

Maltby - Draper - Helm

Meech - Scrub - Scrub

Lidstrom - Rafalski

Kronwall - Stuart

Ericsson - Lilja

Osgood

Howard

Lost: Hudler, Franzen, Samuelsson, Leino, and the ability to call someone up without using long term injured reserve to free cap space.

Translation:

Lost: Scoring depth.

Filppula's 3 million dollar contract kills the probability of this team being able to keep Hossa without destroying scoring depth and ruining the team (if Maltby - Draper - Helm is the best we can come up with on the third line next season we've taken a significant downturn).

It's been made very clear that the Wings would like to keep Hossa.

Hudler is more valuable to the team than Filppula AND he's a better player than Filppula.

Significant changes will occur with this team, and without dropping a large salary the team is f***ed.

Filppula's contract is the only one that's large enough to free significant cap room and doesn't have a no trade clause.

The Wings will have to lose players they like this summer. It is impossible to keep everyone. Filppula is not safe because he's got a bright future when the people he's shoving aside are more valuable to the team.

In summary:

Anyone who thinks Filppula's spot on this roster next year is 100% safe is lying to themselves.

So trade Flip's 3mil for Huder's 3mil.

That leaves us...

where? In your scenario that is. We still have no depth. Unless hudler can play on multiple lines

Edited February 16, 2009 by Z and D for the C

[YoungGuns1340 1]

So trade Flip's 3mil for Huder's 3mil.

That leaves us...

where?

Actually, you could probably get Hudler to sign for less than 3M on a short term deal. It wouldn't make sense for Hudler to sign a long term deal when wherever he is - on the Wings, or another team - hes going to see more ice time next year, and along with his continual improvement, he could probably produce more than the 27 goals and 67 points hes on pace for. It wouldn't make sense for him to seek a 3.5-4M deal over 4-5 years when hes likely to garner more than that, on average, on the open market. It would be in his best interest to take around a 2 year, 5.5M deal (and if I'm not mistaken, that puts him right up to UFA eligibility), stick around on a talented team, and then take advantage of the open market when hes still a young forward with an impressive resume who doesn't have to worry about never experiencing Stanley Cup glory.

In reality, since we have to either trade or let two UFA forwards walk next season (assuming Hossa is serious about accepting 6M), then the smart idea would be to trade Filppula for Backstrom. A desperately needed net is upgraded for the playoffs, either Helm or Leino and their much needed energy gets a full time spot, and we make the space up front that we're going to have to make regardless next year. We upgrade our team this year, and we lose nothing next year that we wouldn't lose otherwise.

Edit: Actually, I'm going to propose the Wings offer either Franzen or Filppula for Backstrom, assuming nhlnumbers.com is correct and we've accumulated 2M in cap space through injuries. If thats the case, then adding the $3M Backstrom is feasible by trading the $1M Franzen.

Edited February 16, 2009 by YoungGuns1340

[Guest EZBAKETHAGANGSTA]

Is this a joke? He's SEEMINGLY stopped developing, at 24? He hasn't nearly reached his peak yet to to think he has is plain stupidity.

Last time I checked, the reason he put seemingly is because he SEEMINGLY has stopped developing, meaning it seems like has, but most probably has not... that was the whole point bud.

[Drake_Marcus 890]

So trade Flip's 3mil for Huder's 3mil.

That leaves us...

where? In your scenario that is. We still have no depth. Unless hudler can play on multiple lines

Hudler should be negotiable to a salary that comes in just over 2 million if we keep the term short (he's trending upwards so locking him in for a short contract allows him to cash in in the future- that's what Holland did with Zetterberg's previous extension). Since the Wings would get a 1st and 3rd from an offer sheet that exceeded about 2.6 million a season we know the Wings should be able to sign Hudler for an amount around 2.5 million or possibly less if they work their magic on him like they did with Z back when he signed his 2.25 million dollar extension.

Actually, you could probably get Hudler to sign for less than 3M on a short term deal. It wouldn't make sense for Hudler to sign a long term deal when wherever he is - on the Wings, or another team - hes going to see more ice time next year, and along with his continual improvement, he could probably produce more than the 27 goals and 67 points hes on pace for. It wouldn't make sense for him to seek a 3.5-4M deal over 4-5 years when hes likely to garner more than that, on average, on the open market. It would be in his best interest to take around a 2 year, 5.5M deal (and if I'm not mistaken, that puts him right up to UFA eligibility), stick around on a talented team, and then take advantage of the open market when hes still a young forward with an impressive resume who doesn't have to worry about never experiencing Stanley Cup glory.

In reality, since we have to either trade or let two UFA forwards walk next season (assuming Hossa is serious about accepting 6M), then the smart idea would be to trade Filppula for Backstrom. A desperately needed net is upgraded for the playoffs, either Helm or Leino and their much needed energy gets a full time spot, and we make the space up front that we're going to have to make regardless next year. We upgrade our team this year, and we lose nothing next year that we wouldn't lose otherwise.

Edit: Actually, I'm going to propose the Wings offer either Franzen or Filppula for Backstrom, assuming nhlnumbers.com is correct and we've accumulated 2M in cap space through injuries. If thats the case, then adding the $3M Backstrom is feasible by trading the $1M Franzen.

This. It's hopeful thinking, yeah, but the point is that Hudler locked in at 3 million or less is better than Filppula locked in at 3 million IF the Wings are able to retain Hossa on a deal like Zetterberg's.

Hell, if they can get Hudler and Leino for around 3.25 million we're golden in that case.

However, if Hossa walks I'd strongly advocate keeping Filppula in addition to Hudler.

Edited February 16, 2009 by Drake_Marcus

[LIDDYGIBBY5 1]

[see bold]

There's your fallacy, Fil's contract is loaded to be a *future* expected player. K. Holland and Babcock do not "expect" him to be 4th/5th in scoring for 2009. In a few years he is expected to be a bargain, right now he's abou the same as Zetterberg and Datsyuk when they were his age/experience.

With your logic, you probably wanted to trade Datsyuk for a bag of pucks in 2002 since he wasn't leading scorer above Fedorov, Shanny, Hull, Yzerman and etc...

I'm sure glad some of you LGW forum posters are not the General Manager of the Detroit Red Wings, we'd have (at best) kindergarten level of skill on this team.

Wow, someone on the internet who feels that they need to call people names. I never thought that we would see someone like that.

I don't care how a contract is loaded. What matters is the cap number. There are a lot of players that bring a similar cap number that produce more. I like Val, but I just don't think he brings enough for the salary he gets. He is the most tradeable regular player who will be under contract next season. I would like to move him if it means we can re-sign Hossa and Franzen.

Edited February 16, 2009 by LIDDYGIBBY5

[Aussie_Wing 354]

Last time I checked, the reason he put seemingly is because he SEEMINGLY has stopped developing, meaning it seems like has, but most probably has not... that was the whole point bud.

And last time I checked BUD, eclipsing your career high in assists in 20 odd less games pretty much means you haven't SEEMINGLY stopped developing, bud.

Edited February 16, 2009 by Aussie_Wing

[Aussie_Wing 354]

In summary:

Anyone who thinks Filppula's spot on this roster next year is 100% safe is lying to themselves.

In summary:

I didn't even read that. When Babcock publically voices his opinion that Filppula has a chance to be an upper-echelon player in the league, it's 100% guaranteed he's staying a Wing.

[Guest EZBAKETHAGANGSTA]

And last time I checked BUD, eclipsing your career high in assists in 20 odd less games pretty much means you haven't SEEMINGLY stopped developing, bud.

Yeah, cause you know being on pace for almost the exact same of points means he's having EXPLOSION LIKE DEVELOPMENT! I can pick and choose stats too, the fact of the matter is, he has been demoted a line since last year, and is on pace for slightly less points. He SEEMINGLY (while we both know this isn't true, just statistic wise) is getting WORSE. BUD

Also about your other post about being an upper echolon player.... remember last year when he said Sammuelson was among the world's elite? Could it possibly be that he is trying to raise his value by overhyping him... OF COURSE NOT. BUD

[YoungGuns1340 1]

In summary:

I didn't even read that. When Babcock publically voices his opinion that Filppula has a chance to be an upper-echelon player in the league, it's 100% guaranteed he's staying a Wing.

...you...don't remember the way he lauded the play of Jason Williams?

[YoungGuns1340 1]

And last time I checked BUD, eclipsing your career high in assists in 20 odd less games pretty much means you haven't SEEMINGLY stopped developing, bud.

So what does it mean when hes on pace to score half the goals he did last year?