Who signs 1st?

[Jesusberg 1,256]

I think the only change on defense next season will be Lebda or Meech out for Ericsson.

I can see the forwards looking two different ways:

D-Z-H

Leino-Flip-Hossa

Kopecky-Helm-Cleary

Maltby-Draper-Downey

OR

D-Z-H

Franzen-Flip-Hudler

Leino-Helm-Cleary

Maltby-Draper-Kopecky

I'd be fine if either one happened, really. The second set seems to have more depth, though.

[Wombat 26]

Refer to my post earlier in this thread.

Furthermore, regarding the bolded, I actually did a write-up earlier in the year in another thread regarding this particular bit. After research, I found out that the most successful teams in the NHL currently (San Jose, Boston, Detroit, Calgary, Washington, a handful of other playoff teams) all spend around 32-36 million on their top 5 players, with the 33-34 mil Detroit would spend on those 5 right in the midrange of the most successful teams. The primary differences between Detroit and the other teams which do this are the following:

1. Most teams top 5 contracts include a goalie. That's never been the modus operandi for Detroit, as we know.

2. Due to the discounts players take in Detroit, their top 5 is by far the most talented in the NHL (#1 d-man, top 10 d-man, arguably #1 forward, top 10 foward, top 20 forward).

Now, on further examination, I found spending between 12-15 million on the next 5 is also within the norm for the most successful teams, and that the remaining salary distributed to fill in the bottom 6/holes was around 10 million, give or take a couple.. as, agan, is showed by your example.

Thus, it would seem that the formula to success in the cap era is having a "key" top 5 (6 mil + players), a "core" second 5 (2-5 mil players), and then reasonably fill out the holes with roleplayers and cheap young talent.

The Wings would not be doing anything out of the norm with this, but rather, continuing the most successful practice.

TL;DR: In Kenny We Trust.

This may be true when the cap is around $56.7 million... what happens when/if the cap goes down significantly over the next two years and the Wings still have 4 players with cap hits around $25 million plus the 4 core players at $12.5? Can the Wings afford Lidstrom if he wants to come back? If the cap drops to only $50 million in 2 years, the Wings (barring trades and assuming a nice Hossa deal most people seem to want) will have that $37.5 million for 8 players, leaving $12.5 for the remaining 13-15 players needed. Even if one of the 4 "core" players steps up to the "key" tier, then the Wings still need to afford 2 more "core" players (under your above model), leaving little room for filling out a deep team.

I think it would be most prudent to let Hossa walk and concentrate on keeping a deep team with some salary cap flexibility to address mid season trades and more importantly, injury call-ups from Grand Rapids.

[egroen 384]

This may be true when the cap is around $56.7 million... what happens when/if the cap goes down significantly over the next two years and the Wings still have 4 players with cap hits around $25 million plus the 4 core players at $12.5? Can the Wings afford Lidstrom if he wants to come back? If the cap drops to only $50 million in 2 years, the Wings (barring trades and assuming a nice Hossa deal most people seem to want) will have that $37.5 million for 8 players, leaving $12.5 for the remaining 13-15 players needed. Even if one of the 4 "core" players steps up to the "key" tier, then the Wings still need to afford 2 more "core" players (under your above model), leaving little room for filling out a deep team.

I think it would be most prudent to let Hossa walk and concentrate on keeping a deep team with some salary cap flexibility to address mid season trades and more importantly, injury call-ups from Grand Rapids.

If I were a general manager, I would not be sweating the doom and gloom of a salary cap decrease in two years.

1) Ticket sales in the NHL are still healthy, and even up this year, despite the economy.

2) The TV contract can not get any worse than what it currently is, and will most likely get better.

3) Even if revenues do fall substancially, the Players' Union and Owners can vote to bypass the CBA and artificially put the salary cap wherever they want -- for instance, if it went to $50m, 75% of NHL teams would be screwed, and I have a feeling they would elect to keep the cap constant in that case.

4) Red wings specifically have a key UFA that year - Lidstrom, who might take a significant salary cut. Maltby and Holmstrom are also UFAs that year.

[talex 1]

Just for the record.

I read somewhere and am confident I remember this correctly, but unless Leino is on the Wings next year he said he is heading back to Finland.

Also I believe we have to bring up Helm and Howard or loose them, hopefully Howard is gone, Helm however is a keeper.

Just something to keep in mind.

Also I agree with another poster who expected a signing by now and am wondering what must be going on and judging from the plethra of opinions, strategies and lineup options something simular must be happening daily in the Wings organization. I think the longer this goes the more likely we will be suprised by what may be coming, especially highlighted with Homer out for a game again right after returning... running close to the cap makes it a tougher spot to be in than it should have to be. My thoughts in a couple years when the cap might drop would be Lids will either retire or just might make up the difference in a new deal, either way he retires a Wings. Malts retire and Homer most likely re-signs to a short relatively inexpensive 1 to 3 year deal.

Personally I have no clue what will happen at this point, I thought for sure Hoss would be signed by now or at least more speak of 1 or the other being close... all we have heard is both would like to stay (Of the 2 Hossa seems to have been more vocal and aknowleding a hometown discount).

If I am Holland right now I have absolutely no finger nails what so ever...

[Wombat 26]

If I were a general manager, I would not be sweating the doom and gloom of a salary cap decrease in two years.

1) Ticket sales in the NHL are still healthy, and even up this year, despite the economy.

2) The TV contract can not get any worse than what it currently is, and will most likely get better.

3) Even if revenues do fall substancially, the Players' Union and Owners can vote to bypass the CBA and artificially put the salary cap wherever they want -- for instance, if it went to $50m, 75% of NHL teams would be screwed, and I have a feeling they would elect to keep the cap constant in that case.

4) Red wings specifically have a key UFA that year - Lidstrom, who might take a significant salary cut. Maltby and Holmstrom are also UFAs that year.

Ticket sales for the most part were done before the economy crap hit the fan... much of that money is from season tickets and many individual tickets are also sold before the season begins. If the economy keeps going how it is, there will be far less season ticket holders league-wide and fewer people buying individual tickets as well.

I don't know when the TV contract expires but even if it doubles, it won't account to a significant trickle down to all the teams. This isn't the NFL where TV deals almost get every team to break even.

The third portion of your response could come into play, however I don't know how many teams will truly be screwed by such a drop in two years time because I don't know how many teams have significant long term contracts. Rangers, Flyers, and Wings come to mind, but some teams might love having that cap lower back down to retain their cost certainty. Plus, the big boys would have to buy out a few players that could then be had for cheap by the other teams, so maybe they do allow it to happen.

It is true that Lidstrom is a UFA after next season but I did not include his cost into any of my totals. I don't expect him to make $7.4 million again next contract, but if he's still a great player he will still deserve a $2-$4 million contract. If he's holding on as a less significant player like Yzerman did, then he will get that less significant $1 million-ish salary but I think he'll still be a top pairing guy in two years.

My basic point is that if you know that bad times are coming, re-signing the most expensive piece that is coming free might not be the wisest choice, especially when that piece came in as sort of a mercenary anyways.

[talex 1]

Ticket sales for the most part were done before the economy crap hit the fan... much of that money is from season tickets and many individual tickets are also sold before the season begins. If the economy keeps going how it is, there will be far less season ticket holders league-wide and fewer people buying individual tickets as well.

I don't know when the TV contract expires but even if it doubles, it won't account to a significant trickle down to all the teams. This isn't the NFL where TV deals almost get every team to break even.

The third portion of your response could come into play, however I don't know how many teams will truly be screwed by such a drop in two years time because I don't know how many teams have significant long term contracts. Rangers, Flyers, and Wings come to mind, but some teams might love having that cap lower back down to retain their cost certainty. Plus, the big boys would have to buy out a few players that could then be had for cheap by the other teams, so maybe they do allow it to happen.

It is true that Lidstrom is a UFA after next season but I did not include his cost into any of my totals. I don't expect him to make $7.4 million again next contract, but if he's still a great player he will still deserve a $2-$4 million contract. If he's holding on as a less significant player like Yzerman did, then he will get that less significant $1 million-ish salary but I think he'll still be a top pairing guy in two years.

My basic point is that if you know that bad times are coming, re-signing the most expensive piece that is coming free might not be the wisest choice, especially when that piece came in as sort of a mercenary anyways.

Just curious about this speculated cap drop... down to 50 Mil? Not being sarcastic but where does such a drastic number come from? That is like a 12 or 13% cut... It would seem to me that if the NHL needs to cut things that drastically to achieve parity, they should start considering a different system with something of a luxury tax system or they risk keeping non-profit, loose profit markets while loosing some fan interest in currently profitable markets... not to mention that at some magic point players will make the same or better money in the Euro/Russian leagues, I think the NHL needs to be very careful with that number...

[Guest MrSandMan]

I agree with the posters who point out that Hossa on the team next season just isn't logical. I wouldn't hold your breath if I were you. This is the "cap era".

[Wombat 26]

Just curious about this speculated cap drop... down to 50 Mil? Not being sarcastic but where does such a drastic number come from? That is like a 12 or 13% cut... It would seem to me that if the NHL needs to cut things that drastically to achieve parity, they should start considering a different system with something of a luxury tax system or they risk keeping non-profit, loose profit markets while loosing some fan interest in currently profitable markets... not to mention that at some magic point players will make the same or better money in the Euro/Russian leagues, I think the NHL needs to be very careful with that number...

I just threw out the $50 cap number as an example. I've read various reports (don't recall where) that say the cap could drop into the mid to high $40's in two years. Much of the cap gains recently were thanks to a strong Canadian dollar, which has now fallen again. Coupled with the recession, there can be some big effects on the horizon.

[sureWhyNot 19]

QUINCEY.

Not that it was on the same level as Bryz from the Ducks, but still... he's been killing it on LA.

ConkBlock isnt going anywhere. Find me another team in the league paying less for goaltending with more team points on the board. We've rotated more 'Tenders than 2 before.

On a seperate note, Anyone else think that Ericsson prove Lilja obsolete? Or am I getting ahead of myself?

What -- are the Wings have a one man quota on dmen with any substantial size to their frame? We are undersized as is on the blue line, Ericcson certainly helps a lot in that department but we could use one or two more guys that posses the ability to actually move the opposition, use their big frame to block shots, etc.

I do agree with you 100% about Conklin though.

[MaynardJKeenan 1]

I wonder if Hossa or Mule would sign a 1 year deal and then cash in the following year when Lidstrom retires or gets a lower cap hit? It's hard to imagine Hoss doing it two years in a row, but maybe. Maybe Franzen would be willing to do it to stay with the Wings.

[nkuehnl 0]

1. Most teams top 5 contracts include a goalie. That's never been the modus operandi for Detroit, as we know.

This is precisely why the model won't work for Detroit. The teams paying that much for superstars also have great goaltending to make up for the lack of depth.

[sureWhyNot 19]

I agree with the posters who point out that Hossa on the team next season just isn't logical. I wouldn't hold your breath if I were you. This is the "cap era".

Ha ha, would expect nothing less from you.

[Datsyerberger 279]

This is precisely why the model won't work for Detroit. The teams paying that much for superstars also have great goaltending to make up for the lack of depth.

Problems is, the Wings don't lack depth, even losing Franzen, Hudler, Sammy, and Lebda. We play second liners on our 3rd and 4th lines when we're healthy, and have possible 2nd liners (Leino) scratched. Top 4 d-men (Ericsson) can't even fit on our team unless someone gets injured.

Also, our goaltending is fine. SV% is a deceptive stat, and is almost as relative to defense as GAA is.

[nkuehnl 0]

Problems is, the Wings don't lack depth, even losing Franzen, Hudler, Sammy, and Lebda. We play second liners on our 3rd and 4th lines when we're healthy, and have possible 2nd liners (Leino) scratched. Top 4 d-men (Ericsson) can't even fit on our team unless someone gets injured.

Also, our goaltending is fine. SV% is a deceptive stat, and is almost as relative to defense as GAA is.

Sorry, but both of those are ridiculous claims.

Using projected totals, Detroit will lose 84 goals and 181 total points after taking away Franzen, Hudler, Samuelsson, and Kopecky. Who on next year's roster will be able to make up for that loss? It won't be Leino, because we can't afford him. Filppula and Cleary haven't been reliable scorers, so it's not going to be them. I also sincerely doubt Helm or Abdelkader are going to break out like Hudler and Franzen.

Not to mention the fact that signing Hossa at 6 million (which isn't necessarily realistic) automatically puts Detroit over the cap for next season. Detroit would be forced to shed salary just to be cap compliant, and then they would have to use whatever limited cash left over to fill in the empty roster spots.

As I said earlier, this is our 09-10 roster -- again, at 57 million dollars -- if we sign Hossa and do nothing else:

Hank-Datsyuk-Holmstrom

Cleary-Filppula-Hossa

??? - Helm - Abdelkader

Maltby-Draper-Meech

???

Lidstrom-Rafalski

Kronwall-Stuart

Lilja-Ericsson

Lebda

Osgood

Howard

Cleary and Filppula are not reliable scorers, regardless of whatever anecdotal evidence LGWers want to post. Both players average almost 17 minutes a game and yet the only players they regularly outproduce are named Kopecky, Maltby, and Draper. Meech is a terrible forward, Abdelkader is unproven, and Helm is not entirely reliable at this stage of his career. Draper and Maltby are also getting older and less effective. Holmstrom is beginning to have injury problems and is also aging. Tell me again how this roster has depth.

Furthermore, Detroit is currently 19th in goals against per game (2.9). Only three playoff teams are worse in that regard. Conklin is 10th in GAA (2.45) and 23rd in SV% (.911); Osgood is statistically the worst starting goaltender in the league being 39th in GAA (3.14) and 43rd in SV% (.884). The team is also 26th on the PK (78.2%), which is absolutely terrible. Regardless of whether SV% is a team stat (hint: it's not, and the evidence is in the Conklin/Osgood comparison), you're saying that our goaltending/defense/PK will be fine next year despite the fact that:

A) Osgood will be a year older and a year slower.

B) Detroit will replace Conklin -- who has been good -- with Howard, who has been wholly unreliable in all of his starts over the years.

C) Detroit's roster will be significantly downgraded.

This is all without opening the can of worms that is the scenario of trading Stuart or Filppula, which brings in way too many variables that would make this post longer than it already is.

[jjd06e 10]

^^^^^^^^^

not bad lineup imo, we would still be fine. Dump a Lilja or Lebda to make room for Leino contract and I dont mind that team

Edited March 18, 2009 by jjd06e

[Datsyerberger 279]

*Snip*

You could have saved yourself the long post simply by reading the thread. I already made a roster projection that involves keeping Hossa and a full line up with reasonable salary expectations. This is what I had:

Datsyuk - Zetterberg - Holmstrom

Cleary - Flip - Hossa

Leino - Helm - Kopecky

Maltby - Draper - Downey

(Meech)

Rafalski - Lidstrom

Kronwall - Ericsson

Lilja - Stuart

Meech

Osgood

Howard

Tight roster? Yes? Tricky cap problem? Yes. Lack of depth? Hell no. Trade Lilja and keep Lebda and you've got roster room for 1 more cheap player, which makes more sense to me. Just for lulz, I'll say Cheli, but it could be any cheap d-man or just used to call up random GR folks. Lilja is a little more redundant with Stuart on the 3rd pair, and probably at his peak value. In that case, you have:

Datsyuk - Zetterberg - Holmstrom

Cleary - Flip - Hossa

Leino - Helm - Kopecky

Maltby - Draper - Downey

(Meech)

(Forward call-up?)

(Edit: Or just to Babcock this --

Holmstrom - Datsyuk - Hossa

Leino - Zetterberg - Cleary

Helm - Filppula - Kopecky

Maltby - Draper - Downey)

Rafalski - Lidstrom

Kronwall - Ericsson

Lilja - Stuart

Meech

(Cheap d-man/d-man call up/Chelios?)

Osgood

Howard

22 man roster, star player on the 2nd line, 2nd line talent on the 3rd line, right up against the cap.. damn, that sounds familiar. Oh yes, the top team in the NHL amirite?

The Franzen or Hudler projection:

Datsyuk - Zetterberg - Holmstrom

Franzen/Hudler (not both, sorry) - Flip - Sammy

Leino - Kopecky - Cleary

Helm - Draper - Maltby

(Meech)

(Downey OR 8th D-man)

Rafalski - Lidstrom

Kronwall - Ericsson

Lilja - Stuart

Meech

(8th D-man OR Downey)

Osgood

Howard

Same roster situation, same cap situation... depth advantage Hossa, imo (star player on 2nd line > 2nd liner on 3rd line)

Edited March 18, 2009 by Datsyerberger

[nkuehnl 0]

I did read the thread. Your numbers are impossible, which is why I ignored that post.

Detroit sits at $50.19 million without signing anybody. Pencil Hossa in at $6.1 million and Detroit is at $56.29 million. That leaves $.41 million. The cap is not going up next year, so the $57 million figure is a fallacy.

Your only suggested trade is Lebda, who makes $.65 million. Detroit is now at $55.64 million.

Detroit cannot re-sign Kopecky, Downey, and Leino for a combined salary of $1.06 million; it is impossible. Even if I accept your random addition of $.3 million to the cap, it is STILL impossible to sign those 3 players. Furthermore, Leino makes $.875 million right now; there is absolutely no way he signs for less than Hudler's current deal ($1.015m cap hit).

So, to sum up, even if I:

a) took away Abdelkader (stupid, because he will bring more to the team than Maltby or Downey)

b) assume the cap will raise to $57 million (with no evidence to back this up)

c) assume Leino will only make Hudler-money

Detroit is still over the cap by a slim margin and the team is spread so thin offensively that one injury to Hossa, Datsyuk, and Zetterberg would hurt the team significantly instead of just being a bump in the road (e.g. Hossa this year).

Osgood has been awful, the team defense has been mediocre, and people are suggesting to make the roster top heavy offensively. There's no sense to it.

I'll ask again: who on that roster is going to make up for the ~80 goals (including ~11 game winners) that will disappear with Hudler, Franzen, and Samuelsson? It sure as hell won't be Filppula or Cleary, who currently see 16-17 minutes of ice time per game and will only score ~25 goals combined by the end of the season. How about Holmstrom? Anyone think he's going to repeat his offensive performance despite being older, slower, and now tackling injury problems as well? How do you think a year-older Osgood will perform -- when he's already been average-to-below-average this year -- with a weaker team next year?

Obviously Detroit's roster will be worse next year simply because we can't afford to sign everyone. It makes a hell of a lot more sense to keep Franzen, Hudler, Samuelsson, and Leino over Hossa and Stuart. The two groups make similar money, but the first group outproduces the second by a vast margin and Detroit wouldn't have to worry about seeing Downey or Meech play significant time up front.

[Datsyerberger 279]

I did read the thread. Your numbers are impossible, which is why I ignored that post.

*Snip for length*

Sorry, your numbers are off, which is why your argument is in vain. Allow me to elaborate on the numbers, since apparently you insist on an in-depth debate without having to do the research yourself:

(09-10 season, current contracts of projected roster players only)

Datsyuk: 6.700

Zetterberg: 6.083

Filppula: 3.000

Cleary: 2.800

Holmstrom: 2.250

Draper: 1.583

Maltby: 0.883

Helm: 0.598

Lidstrom: 7.450

Rafalski: 6.000

Stuart: 3.750

Kronwall: 3.000

Lilja: 1.250 / Lebda 0.650

Meech: 0.483

Ericsson: 0.900

Osgood: 1.417

Howard: 0.717

Total = 48.264 (Lebda) / 48.864 (Lilja)

Roster:

ZDH

Cleary - Flip - ?

? - Helm - ?

Maltby - Draper - ?

(Meech)

Raffi - Lids

Kronwall - Ericsson

Stuart - Lebda/Lilja

Meech

Osgood

Howard

Now let's fill in the holes.

Hossa: 6.100 (More than the similarly skilled future captain)

Leino: 0.950 (1-2 year deal)

Kopecky: 0.600 (And some people here would ***** about that)

Downey: 0.475

Total: 56.989 (Lilja) / 56.389 (Lebda)

I prefer the Lebda option, as that frees up money to secure a 22 man roster -- 22nd spot can either be filled by a cheap roleplaying forward, a cheap #6/7 d-man, or rotating prospects. Also, Lilja will trade for better assets than Lebda.

ZDH

Cleary - Flip - Hossa

Leino - Helm - Kopecky

Maltby - Draper - Downey

(Meech)

*(Roleplayer/Rotating prospect)

Raffi - Lids

Kronwall - Ericsson

Stuart - Lebda/Lilja

Meech

*(Backup d-man/rotating prospect/Chelios)

Osgood

Howard

* = Pick 1, Lebda option only

Alternatively, you can work out similar numbers with Franzen taking $4m (notoriously greedy agent) and Sammy taking $2m (large discount for a defensively responsible 50 point player in his prime) instead of Hossa taking 6.1 -- Hudler taking 3-3.5 and Sammy taking 2 is another option as well that leaves a bit more wiggle room, but probably offers the least talent of all the options. Hossa, to me, is unquestionably more attractive than Franzen + Sammy or Hudler + Sammy + Roleplayer. If Franzen + Hudler can be had for a combined 6.1 million, then I take that option over Hossa, but I find that to be the least realistic of all the options available.

Anyhow, maybe instead of ignoring posts you should spend the time you used making posts with inaccurate figures to check the numbers instead. That way, you don't waste your time and I don't have to post essentially the same damned thing 3 times.

Now that we've overcome the ignorance of the statement that retaining above rosters would be financially impossible, perhaps we should debate over which of the above rosters would be the most effective both short and long term -- which is where the debate is, not the numbers.

Final note: There's plenty of evidence that the cap will raise slightly next year; given that 56.7 is the current number, 57 is a reasonable estimate within the realm of "slightly". Edit: It has to do with both high revenues this year (despite the economy, since many tickets/merchandise were bought before the current economic situation) and the largest ever NHL escrow return this year (I've seen a $4m per team estimation). Since I did all that bull$#@% above, you can be the one to research this if you care to debate numbers further.

Edited March 18, 2009 by Datsyerberger

[nkuehnl 0]

Point 1: You're penciling in FAs at prices lower than what they will receive.

Point 2: You're completely ignoring Abdelkader, who will almost assuredly make the team next year.

49.464m

+Abdelkader (.74m)

-Lebda (.65m)

= 49.554m

+Hossa (6.1m)

=55.654m

+Kopecky (.65m - Kopecky will make more money than Helm, guaranteed)

=56.304

+Leino (1m at least - Hudler was given a 1.015m contract when the cap was lower)

=57.304

+Downey (.45)

=57.754

Even if you ditch Abdelkader, your roster is still over your make-believe cap of $57. Also, every single GM interviewed has denied the chance that the cap will go up or down. It's 99% likely the cap stays exactly the same.

edit: oh I see you switched your story to getting rid of Lilja now. It still doesn't work with Abdelkader, so try again.

Edited March 18, 2009 by nkuehnl

[Datsyerberger 279]

Point 1: You're penciling in FAs at prices lower than what they will receive.

Point 2: You're completely ignoring Abdelkader, who will almost assuredly make the team next year.

49.514m

+Abdelkader (.74m)

-Lebda (.65m)

= 49.604m

+Hossa (6.1m)

=55.7m

+Kopecky (.65m - Kopecky will make more money than Helm, guaranteed)

=56.35

+Leino (1m at least - Hudler was given a 1.015m contract when the cap was lower)

=57.35

+Downey (.45)

=57.8

Even if you ditch Abdelkader, your roster is still over your make-believe cap of $57. Also, every single GM interviewed has also denied the chance that the cap will go up or down. It's 99% likely the cap stays exactly the same.

Leino at .950 short term is better off than Ericsson at .9. Hudler's contract was a deal greater than 1 year, which meant a higher cap hit. A 1 year deal for Leino at .950 is pretty reasonable.

Kopecky at .6 is also a reasonable estimate, though I am of the personal belief he is worth more. I wouldn't be surprised to see some bottom feeder offer him 1-1.2 mil, to be honest.

I doubt we see Abdelkader next year due to the cap situation. If we do, then we don't spend a roster spot (or money) on Downey. Since Downey is a cheaper option to fill a spot than Abdelkader, and there's been nothing out of Babcock or management to suggest they think Abdelkader is NHL ready (which we have heard about Helm, Ericsson, and Leino), I doubt we see him 'til the '10-11 season.

Again, I believe Lilja is more likely to be moved than Lebda, due to contract size, redundancy, and higher trade value.

And finally, excellent research you did there on the cap situation. "Also, every single GM interviewed has also denied the chance that the cap will go up or down." Stunning statement with excellent sources; I'm a believer now. For the record, most of the GMs interviewed have declined to comment on whether the cap will go up or down, not denied. Couple extra letters there.

Edit: I didn't change anything regarding Lilja in the previous post. Furthermore, you'll notice I never included Abdelkader, something which I've already thoroughly explained. I feel no need to include his contract when I don't include him on the NHL roster.

Edited March 18, 2009 by Datsyerberger

[nkuehnl 0]

And finally, excellent research you did there on the cap situation. "Also, every single GM interviewed has also denied the chance that the cap will go up or down." Stunning statement with excellent sources; I'm a believer now. For the record, most of the GMs interviewed have declined to comment on whether the cap will go up or down, not denied. Couple extra letters there.

Haha, what? I'm sorry I don't have sources for the 10-odd interviews I've heard on television where GMs and other higher-ups have stated that the NHL is not going to do anything with the salary cap until they know for sure what is going to happen next year.

You're the one trying to prove that the cap is going up by a random figure of .3 million dollars. How about YOU provide some sources from higher-ups claiming the cap will go up? You can't use ticket sales or escrow here because they're false numbers in this economy. Why on earth would the NHL make any changes to the salary cap when they are uncertain as to what will happen with next season's sales in regards to the overall economy? The answer is: they won't.

There is also a 0% chance Leino will sign for less than a million dollars. Every single comparable player on the Detroit roster (Hudler, Franzen, Samuelsson) was originally signed for more money.

[detroitrocks 0]

Hi All,

Topic's been discused a bunch, but we are approaching the 6 weeks Holland said it would be until the next guy was signed (assumed either Hossa or Franzen). I know he also hinted that it would happen before the playoff's, but the countdown clock on this one has started...

So who will it be? How much do you predict? How long a term?

Let the party start...

Franzen will sign first for 3 years at approx 2.5 mil per year.

Hossa will sign after we win the Cup for 2 or 3 years at 7.5 to 8 mil per year !

I think Filppula or Cleary's days may be numbered in order to keep the core of the team together going forward !!

[detroitrocks 0]

Problems is, the Wings don't lack depth, even losing Franzen, Hudler, Sammy, and Lebda. We play second liners on our 3rd and 4th lines when we're healthy, and have possible 2nd liners (Leino) scratched. Top 4 d-men (Ericsson) can't even fit on our team unless someone gets injured.

Also, our goaltending is fine. SV% is a deceptive stat, and is almost as relative to defense as GAA is.

I agree that the Wings do not lack depth at the D and forward positions or even goaltending.

Detroit has a top 4 Dman in Ericsson,a top 4 forward in Leino,Helm,Pare, and Abdelkader,and a decent goalie in Daniel Larsson as well as a potentially great goalie in Tom McCollum.

What we need to do is to trade either some or all of Cleary or Filppula or Samuelsson and or Osgood for picks in order to clear cap space and to maintain the core of the team and to allow room for the younger guys to fit in and prepare for the next 5 years .

The Wings should try to keep Franzen and Hossa as part of the teams core going forward !

[Datsyerberger 279]

Haha, what? I'm sorry I don't have sources for the 10-odd interviews I've heard on television where GMs and other higher-ups have stated that the NHL is not going to do anything with the salary cap until they know for sure what is going to happen next year.

You're the one trying to prove that the cap is going up by a random figure of .3 million dollars. How about YOU provide some sources from higher-ups claiming the cap will go up? You can't use ticket sales or escrow here because they're false numbers in this economy. Why on earth would the NHL make any changes to the salary cap when they are uncertain as to what will happen with next season's sales in regards to the overall economy? The answer is: they won't.

There is also a 0% chance Leino will sign for less than a million dollars. Every single comparable player on the Detroit roster (Hudler, Franzen, Samuelsson) was originally signed for more money.

We can disagree on FA contracts all day long; I think an outside party that both of our estimates for Kopecky and Leino are within the realms of reason.

On the cap situation for next year, finances for then will be largely determined by tickets/merchandise/escrow revenues from this year. '10-11 is the season we're likely to see a big drop (if that happens at all, but that's another debate entirely), based off the likely poor revenues next year. That's also the offseason in which several of our large contracts to veteran players expire, and the year the CBA expires, so what happens then is anyone's guess at this point.

The GMs saying the NHL is not going to do anything with the cap until they're more certain about next year is not the same as the GMs saying the NHL isn't going to do anything with the cap. Again, that's a polite way to decline to comment.

As for sources.. well, seeing as I already ran the numbers and that you then started throwing the salaries of players I didn't have on the roster onto it in an attempt to further your "impossible" agenda, I see little need to continue to carry the bulk of the load in this debate (seeing as I've already proven you wrong, with your only argument against my point a disagreement over how much 2 FA's will sign for -- noting that you raise their salaries just enough to make my numbers "impossible".)

You've yet to show how my roster example with Hossa and Lebda absolutely cannot work. Curiously enough, one of them works even with Leino at $1.1m, Kopecky at .7 and the cap at 56.7 -- higher than your numbers. We can argue a $50,000 difference in a FA contract until the cows come home. Given that, I'm pretty sure our debate here is done until your provide numbers that prove that absolutely none of my Hossa scenarios listed are possible, or until you decide to start debating the effectiveness of the different scenarios rather than hard numbers.

[Datsyerberger 279]

Hossa will sign after we win the Cup for 2 or 3 years at 7.5 to 8 mil per year !

Unlike some around here, I hope being proven wrong will make you happy -- his agent has already been quoted at saying he's seeking long term between Zetterberg (6.083) and Datsyuk (6.700) money.