Just an amazing statistical anomaly

[Probert 5 For Fighting 0]

Since this has been bothering me forever, I dug up the stats myself just to reaffirm my point.

Our atrociousness on the penalty kill is one of the most interesting anomalies in sports this year. A team chalk-full of Selke-caliber forwards and Lidstrom, Rafalski, Kronwall, Stuart and Ericsson on the backend should not have been so bad on the PK in the regular season, and so epically bad in the playoffs. How epic is it? Check it out.

-Total goals against this playoffs: 40 in 19 games.

-Even strength goals given up: 21

-PP Goals given up: 18

Do you catch that? That's barely a 1/1 ratio between even strength and PP goals given up. By comparison, Pitt's ratio is 41/11. Chicago's is 34/14. Carolina's is 41/8.

My goodness. There's a couple of different angles here, and they're very obvious. 1) Our superior skill and defensive tenacity is on full display at even strength, as most teams are lucky to notch even 1 tally a game 5-on-5.

And 2) Our PK is, quite frankly, an abomination. And there's no explaining it. We've been outstanding the past few years with the same group of players, and we're more talented this year with guys like Hossa and Ericsson contributing to the PK. Last night was particularly gruesome, because I didn't see anything overwhelming from Pitt 5-on-5, but the second they go on the power play, you can almost sense that a goal was inevitable. Why is this? It's obviously unexplainable, and being somewhat of a stats geek, I know there are lies damned lies and statistics - somehow Detroit has found itself in the midst of a year-long anomaly on the PK that will eventually ride itself out next season. There have been many times where we'd do a marvelous job killing off a 1:30 of a PP, only to watch somebody skate into the zone, fire it on net, and there's Vandersteeg or someone else punching the puck home on a rebound.

Is it Osgood? A lack of tenacity in clearing the area around him, where so many of these guys have snuck into to put the puck away? I think there's some truth in the latter, but nothing in the former. In conclusion to my rant: this is one of the most interesting stats I've come across in quite some time, and the only conclusion I can come up with is that we are just flat out unlucky on the PK. Hard-hitting analysis, I know. If we avoid being shorthanded, we can party on at the Joe on Saturday - because Pittsburgh, like everyone else, has little hope against Detroit 5-on-5.

[RedWings 79]

Our PK is terrible.

Look at Pittsburgh PK : they are great, they keep pressuring on our blueliners, impossible to get enough time to shoot

Detroit PK: 4 guys around the net, plenty of space for pitt. Only Gonchar can shoot well from their blueline, still they live him totally free...

Our PK is the reason we lose game 3. TE RRI BLE. In all the other sectors Detroit made a terrific playoff game.

[RusDRW 155]

very interesting observations. I do not have any ideas what we are so bad on PK either...

[soonboomer 31]

Perhaps the loss of Todd McClellan has something to do with this?

[ComradeWasabi 109]

If we had our penalty kill in order we would have cruised to the SCF in twelve games total and would be going into game 4 with a chance to win sixteen games in a row. I'm just saying, giving up half the number of goals at even-strength that our SCF opponent has is incredible. Our penalty kill is not so incredible.

[RedWings 79]

Babcock should try to make big changes. At this point anything different cannot be worse than now.

[Firehawk 305]

Detroit seems to play very passive once the opponent gains the zone with puck control. Maybe they should force the play a bit more...i dont' know.

[digitaljohn88 4]

Is it Osgood? A lack of tenacity in clearing the area around him, where so many of these guys have snuck into to put the puck away? I think there's some truth in the latter, but nothing in the former. In conclusion to my rant: this is one of the most interesting stats I've come across in quite some time, and the only conclusion I can come up with is that we are just flat out unlucky on the PK. Hard-hitting analysis, I know. If we avoid being shorthanded, we can party on at the Joe on Saturday - because Pittsburgh, like everyone else, has little hope against Detroit 5-on-5.

Osgood is weak on cross-crease passes for the one-timer to his blocker side. Coincidentally, we've been absolutely terrible at blocking those passing lanes.

The PK that lost us game 3 was absolutely sad. The Pens had the puck in the zone FOR THE ENTIRE PK UNTIL THEY SCORED. A full 1:30 controlling the puck in our zone. A goal is almost inevitable at that point. Even the goalie gets tired in those situations.

I think we need to be way more aggressive on the PK.

Edited June 3, 2009 by digitaljohn88

[Taylorov 37]

They are horrible at clearing the puck.

It seems as though they are always looking to make an explosive pass up ice for a quick short-hander, instead of just flipping the puck into the air and out.

[YoungGuns1340 1]

I have a couple reasons I think could be the reason why we suck so bad on the PK, but at the end of the day, I'm not an NHL coach, and I can't imagine that I'm picking up on anything that they aren't.

BUT

SOMETHING needs to be done to address the problem. And this is what bothers me most. This has been a problem for nearly 100 games. I understand not being able to rectify PK (or PP) problems if you dont have the personnel to do it, but we do have the personnel to have a dominant PK. So, sorry to say, but I gotta blame the coaching staff on this one.

[GMRwings1983 8,803]

We're supposed to be a good faceoff team, but we're not on the PK. We lost just about every defensive faceoff on the PK the last game.

Also, I've noticed that most of the goals scored against us are scored from the point. Our players either suck at blocking shooting lanes, or are too damn lazy to block shots like other teams do. This is where we miss Lilja. Maybe we just need to charge the point shooters to catch them off guard.

Lastly, Ozzie bails us out constantly even strength, but he sucks on the PK. The goalie is supposed to be the best penalty killer, and he's not.

[YoungGuns1340 1]

Has anyone considered the thought that it might actually be how much we change our PKing forwards on the PK?

It seems to me that when opposing teams clear the puck, most of the time, their PKers stay out there. They end up stacking the blue line and waiting for the Wings to retrieve the puck, and bring it back to the offensive blue line, where we have trouble entering the zone.

When the Wings are on the PK, however, every time we clear the puck, our forwards go for a change. This results in the OUR forwards still having to get back into the play while THEIR forwards are in the process of bringing the puck up the ice already. The result is a clean entrance and set-up in the zone.

If you look at Pittsburgh's PK, for example, they basically use 4 forwards on the PK. The difference between their #1 PK forward and their #5 PK forward is 1:35. The difference between our #1 PK forward and our #5 Pk forward is 55 seconds. We have 7 forwards who play more on the PK than does their #5 PKer.

If you ask me, the fact that we use so many PKing forwards may actually be our downfall. PKers get into a rhythm and they get familiar with the other forward they play with. Babcock uses a smorgasbord of forwards, and he switches them up constantly. Apparently, he favors fresh bodies over good PKing bodies. If I'm not mistaken Pittsburgh's 1st PP goal last night was scored with Franzen on the PK. Franzen averags 0:24 seconds on the PK. Thats not accpetable when Pittsburgh's 2nd unit feature Malkin and Crosby just as the 1st does.

I'd like to see Babcock choose 4 forwards, and go with mainly those guys. No more Hossa on the PK. No more Franzen on the PK. Just because those guys backcheck doesn't mean they know the technicalities of the PK like the back of their hand.

[RedwingsPwn 0]

Has anyone considered the thought that it might actually be how much we change our PKing forwards on the PK?

It seems to me that when opposing teams clear the puck, most of the time, their PKers stay out there. They end up stacking the blue line and waiting for the Wings to retrieve the puck, and bring it back to the offensive blue line, where we have trouble entering the zone.

When the Wings are on the PK, however, every time we clear the puck, our forwards go for a change. This results in the OUR forwards still having to get back into the play while THEIR forwards are in the process of bringing the puck up the ice already. The result is a clean entrance and set-up in the zone.

If you look at Pittsburgh's PK, for example, they basically use 4 forwards on the PK. The difference between their #1 PK forward and their #5 PK forward is 1:35. The difference between our #1 PK forward and our #5 Pk forward is 55 seconds. We have 7 forwards who play more on the PK than does their #5 PKer.

If you ask me, the fact that we use so many PKing forwards may actually be our downfall. PKers get into a rhythm and they get familiar with the other forward they play with. Babcock uses a smorgasbord of forwards, and he switches them up constantly. Apparently, he favors fresh bodies over good PKing bodies. If I'm not mistaken Pittsburgh's 1st PP goal last night was scored with Franzen on the PK. Franzen averags 0:24 seconds on the PK. Thats not accpetable when Pittsburgh's 2nd unit feature Malkin and Crosby just as the 1st does.

I'd like to see Babcock choose 4 forwards, and go with mainly those guys. No more Hossa on the PK. No more Franzen on the PK. Just because those guys backcheck doesn't mean they know the technicalities of the PK like the back of their hand.

I think i totally agree ... i noticed that we sometimes get like 3 different pairs of forwards out on a single pk. its interesting to point out and may be the problem but i dont know. sometimes we just dominate on the pk and then they get the lucky bounce. frustrating but we can still win regardless ... goo wings

[GMRwings1983 8,803]

Has anyone considered the thought that it might actually be how much we change our PKing forwards on the PK?

It seems to me that when opposing teams clear the puck, most of the time, their PKers stay out there. They end up stacking the blue line and waiting for the Wings to retrieve the puck, and bring it back to the offensive blue line, where we have trouble entering the zone.

When the Wings are on the PK, however, every time we clear the puck, our forwards go for a change. This results in the OUR forwards still having to get back into the play while THEIR forwards are in the process of bringing the puck up the ice already. The result is a clean entrance and set-up in the zone.

If you look at Pittsburgh's PK, for example, they basically use 4 forwards on the PK. The difference between their #1 PK forward and their #5 PK forward is 1:35. The difference between our #1 PK forward and our #5 Pk forward is 55 seconds. We have 7 forwards who play more on the PK than does their #5 PKer.

If you ask me, the fact that we use so many PKing forwards may actually be our downfall. PKers get into a rhythm and they get familiar with the other forward they play with. Babcock uses a smorgasbord of forwards, and he switches them up constantly. Apparently, he favors fresh bodies over good PKing bodies. If I'm not mistaken Pittsburgh's 1st PP goal last night was scored with Franzen on the PK. Franzen averags 0:24 seconds on the PK. Thats not accpetable when Pittsburgh's 2nd unit feature Malkin and Crosby just as the 1st does.

I'd like to see Babcock choose 4 forwards, and go with mainly those guys. No more Hossa on the PK. No more Franzen on the PK. Just because those guys backcheck doesn't mean they know the technicalities of the PK like the back of their hand.

I've thought about this before, but our PK has been great in prior seasons despite using multiple forwards.

Still, it'd be worth a try just to see what happens.

[bccarlso 0]

I absolutely hate watching our PKs. You'd think clearing the puck was something of an impossible feat sometimes. Too many times I'm like, "Yes, a clea…shoot, here comes a goal." Then bam, goal. Sometimes it just seems like a little extra effort should be put forth to clear the puck. And yeah, we're not too good at blocking shots either, it's usually squat down on one knee and hope for the best, when good blocks seem to happen when players lay out at opportune times (I realize this is risky, but you should be able to jump right back up again if a pass is made).

[Konnan511 1,736]

It's simple. Our D allows their players in the front of the net. Our forwards don't press the puck handlers aggressively enough.

[egroen 384]

My opinion is it has a lot to do with our players not blocking shots -- Lilja being out in the playoffs obviously furthers that.

[dlawings 0]

Sometimes you’ll win and lose on being to aggressive on PK. Take a big slap shot and the puck goes off the boards/post and off to the defense to make a short-handed goal. But this should never be in their minds, go for the GOLD!! Shooting is this only way to WIN, IMHO.

[go19wings 0]

Our PK will get better in Game 4 with the addition of both Drapes (great PK and faceoff winner) and Dats back in our lineup. Interesting stats!

[AtomicPunk 296]

We need Lilja out there blocking shots!

[Drake_Marcus 890]

One thing we're really missing on the PK is the shotblocking and crease clearing Lilja provided. Towards the end of the year when he was healthy the PK started looking good again, and I really believe Lilja's shotblocking and crease clearing was a huge part of that.

The other part is probably defensive coaching.... that's the only other thing that's changed.

[Louisville 112]

Like Don Cherry says, attack the points!

[Chunkylover 26]

Perhaps the loss of Todd McClellan has something to do with this?

But he ran the offense last season, and Paul McLean who ran the defense last year is still around. If McCrimmon is the problem, and we have the guy with the solution still around, why haven't they addressed it.

Detroit seems to play very passive once the opponent gains the zone with puck control. Maybe they should force the play a bit more...i dont' know.

Anaheim seemed to have all four guys in between the circles and the goal and it worked against us because we couldn't get to any rebounds. Maybe that's what the Wings are going for?

They are horrible at clearing the puck.

It seems as though they are always looking to make an explosive pass up ice for a quick short-hander, instead of just flipping the puck into the air and out.

Not only that but the other day Lidstrom either makes a pass which is picked of at the line by Zetterberg and then promptly turned over to the Penguins, or Lidstrom himself bobbles a pass and gives it to Crosby alone in the crease. I'd say the problem right now is fatigue. In the regular season the PK was lazy, and so it sucked.

Has anyone considered the thought that it might actually be how much we change our PKing forwards on the PK?

I see your point, keep them out there on the line. It's worked against us. I value the depth though and would probably continue this practice.

I remember being at the St Louis game in early February and the Wings killed off a double minor down to the last 19 or so seconds, then got scored on. That's the way things have gone for them this season. Brain farts I guess.

[Guest Shoreline]

I can't believe some are suggesting we change things drastically just because the PK has allowed more goals than other teams' PK. Um what? Even if you like to have a good fap over stats, most other teams EVEN STRENGTH goals allowed that was compared (Carolina/Pittsburgh/Chicago) in the OP is around the same as the Wings have allowed in it's entirety if you combine both PK and even strength. Sufficed to say, this team's defense is well above every other team's, despite the PK struggles. But I wouldn't want to take a dump in the cereal of negativity, so by all means.. blow the team up and make some drastic changes.

[Snazzy 0]

It doesn't bother me if they give up one goal per game, but two is unacceptable.