I think it's possible to sign Kovalchuck this off-season

[Guest blueadams]

...Source: http://www.capgeek.com/charts.php?Team=15

2010 Outlook:

UFA's: Lidstrom (7.45), Holmstrom (2.25), Bertuzzi (1.5), Williams (1.5), Lilja (1.25), Maltby (0.883333), Lebda (0.65), May (0.5), Janik (0.5)

RFA's: Abdelkader (0.85), Larsson (0.85), Helm (0.599444), Miller (0.525), Ritola (0.511666), Eaves (0.5), Meech (0.483333)

FORWARDS:

1) Datsyuk (6.7)

2) Zetterberg (6.083333)

3) Franzen (3.954545)

4) Filppula (3.0)

5) Cleary (2.8)

6) Draper (1.583333)

7) Leino (0.8)

8) *Abdelkader (0.85)

9) *Helm (0.599444)

10) *Miller (0.525)

11) *Eaves (0.5)

12)

27.395655

...*Ritola (0.511666)

DEFENSEMEN:

1) Rafalski (6.0)

2) Stuart (3.75)

3) Kronwall (3.0)

4) Ericsson (0.9)

5) Kindl (0.883333)

6)

14.533333

...*Meech (0.483333)

GOALIES:

1) Howard (0.716666)

2) Osgood (1.416666)

2.133332

...*Larsson (0.85)

Salary Cap: 56.8

Total Salary: 44.06232

Cap Room: 12.73768

...So, right now, I am listing all of our restricted free agents at their current prices (though most will get a slight raise...probably 1-2 mil total). I also listed our probable 13th forward, 7th defenseman, and 3rd goalie's salaries, but I did not count them against our cap total. If the cap remains at about 56.8 mil, then we're going to have about 11-12 mil to spend on free agents. If we could sign Kovalchuck at about 7 mil, then we would still have about 4-5 mil to spend on resigning our own free agents. Depending on how much of a discount Lidstrom is willing to take, it might even be possible to resign Bertuzzi or Holmstrom as well (and if he chooses to retire, we could resign both). For now I'm going to lean towards pessimism (the cap could go down, some RFA's might get big raises, etc.) and assume that it won't be possible to resign either Bertuzzi or Holmstrom. Still though, our potential roster looks very, very nice...

Potential Lines:

Zetterberg-Datsyuk-Cleary

*Kovalchuck-Filppula-Franzen

Leino-Helm-Eaves

Draper-Abdelkader-Miller

*Lidstrom-Rafalski

Kronwall-Stuart

Ericsson-Meech

Howard

Larsson

Edited January 21, 2010 by blueadams

[ben_usmc 253]

I hope not, I would rather have an intense defense and have our offense work through the point. It was our money maker in the past why not refuel and do it again?

[mmamolo 287]

1. Osgood signed his contract at 35+ which means even if he were to retire his number counts against our cap.

2. No way Osgood retires after this season

3. I would much rather re-sign Bertuzzi and Holmstrom and then try and sign another mid level/top six forward than go get Kovalchuk. I'd rather Hudler came back and we had more depth.

4. With Helm, Abdelkader, Eaves, and Miller all one more year older and experiences you'd like to think their contributions would increase. That doesnt necessarily means point production but overall play. Obviously too, with Leino signed, he's not going anywhere so hopefully he finds his stride and even turns into a modest contributor so the need for a Kovalchuk over Bertuzzi/Holmstrom/Hudler(or new signed player) isn't really there. Plus Satsyuk and Zetterberg's production can only increse from this season moving forward.

5. If your lines were to happen I can't see why both our primary goal scorers would be on the same line. To me it wouldn't make sense to have Datsyuk not playing with either of Franzen or Kovalchuk. Despite the fact Zetterberg can score he is also great at working down low and can play the set up man. The top two lines in my mind would be something like:

Kovalchuck - Datsyuk - Cleary

Franzen - Filppula - Zetterberg

or

Franzen - Datsyuk - Zetterberg

Kovalchuk - Filppula - Cleary

6. No way do we go with Howard/Larsson as our goaltending tandem. Even if Howard plays the playoffs and does well with the number of sophmore jinxes in this league Holland would want a stable back up. They'd sign someone and let Larsson continue to season before going with two very young, inexperienced goaltenders.

[VM1138 1,921]

If Lidstrom retires, we'll need Kovalchuk's offense. If Lidstrom stays, who knows, they might go for another Hossa-like deal.

I, too, would like to focus on defense, but there simply isn't anyone out there able to replace Lidstrom. We have some solid defensemen who might step up, and that's about hte best we can hope for right now.

EDIT: I forgot about Hudler coming back, he'll provide some good offense for us.

Edited January 21, 2010 by VM1138

[seeinred 1,488]

Didn't Hudler sign a 2 year deal?

He's got an opt-out clause.

[Guest blueadams]

#1) Offense vs. Defense: Right now, we are seventh best in goals against/game...and third worst in goals for/game. I'd say we need to focus on improving our offense more than our defense. There have been injuries, but they've occured on both sides.

#2) Hudler: I don't think we should count on him coming back next year, or ever.

#3) Kovalchuck vs. Bertuzzi and Holmstrom: Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. We might just have to agree to disagree here. I would MUCH rather have a 25 year old Kovalchuck for the next 6-7 years than a 36 year old Holmstrom and a 34 year old Bertuzzi for the next 1-2 years.

#4) Osgood: Point taken. I corrected my original post. It's only about a half-million dollar difference. Doesn't make a big impact on the plan.

Edited January 21, 2010 by blueadams

[cjm502 165]

No. Seriously, Kovalchuk will never play for us. Give it up.

[hillbillywingsfan 794]

I have a question. please don't jump on me....I have seen alot of people talking about signing him...has there been rumors suggesting that we may be goin gafter him or is this just wishful thinking? i don't remember seeing anything. but man i would love to have him on our team. that would be awesome.

[wingsdiehard13 33]

I believe Kindl has to be in Detroit next year or we could potentially lose him to waivers.

As far as Kovalchuck, I would love to see him here. I think it's possible, but a lot of it depends on whether Lidstrom comes back (which I think he will) and if he does, how big of a discount does he take. We look to be sitting pretty as far as the cap situation this off-season.

[wingsdiehard13 33]

I have a question. please don't jump on me....I have seen alot of people talking about signing him...has there been rumors suggesting that we may be goin gafter him or is this just wishful thinking? i don't remember seeing anything. but man i would love to have him on our team. that would be awesome.

As far as I know, it's pure speculation.

Edit: I hate back-to-back posts. I apologize in advance .

Edited January 21, 2010 by wingsdiehard13

[Wings_Dynasty 267]

Wow, you find a way to sign Ilya Kovalchuk to the Detroit Red Wings and you have DAN CLEARY on the 1st line.

[Drake_Marcus 890]

You've made some bad assumptions:

--> Osgood retires. I have a hard time buying that right now. If he does it'll be a surprise not something you can predict at this point.

--> Holmstrom isn't re-signed. This summer I'd be on board here, but now? No way. If his current scoring pace keeps up he's obviously good for another season. And yes, he'll retire as a Red Wing. For argument’s sake I’ll give him $1,750,000 for one more year. (I doubt he’ll return from injury and keep scoring at his current pace—he always trails off as the season goes on)

--> Leino's still here in October. As much as I was a huge Leino fan coming into this season I just don't see him here in October if he doesn't pick up the pace. At this rate he'll be waived or traded. Maybe not, though, since he still has lots of potential to be a scorer, he just needs a huge confidence boost.

--> Larsson plays in Detroit next season. I'm a big Larsson fan but this just won't happen. He's still got AHL eligibility left and Holland likes his prospects over-ripe. Moreover, I can't imagine a goaltending tandum with a combined 1 season of NHL experience on a Ken Holland team. If Ozzy retires Holland will bring a veteran in on a 1 year contract.

--> Kindl is the 7th d-man. No way in hell. Kindl's considered a huge piece of this club going forward, so just like Ericsson, Kindl will be playing in the top 6 or not at all. Considering that this is his last year of AHL eligibility it's clear he's going to be a member of the top 6 defense (expect tons and tons of bitching about rookie mistakes and turn-overs-- this kid's never had a plus year as a pro hockey player).

--> Contracts for RFA's. You're right on Abdelkader, Larsson and Ritola-- they have no business getting raises. However, the CBA has specific rules for how much players have to get in terms of RFA raises (rules I'm too lazy to look up right now). It's a small percentage that's based on how much they're making at the time. Meech is getting paid less than the current league minimum so he'll get an undeserved raise as well (assuming he isn't waived, traded or allowed to go to free agency). Helm, Miller and Eaves will all get raises, although it won't be significant. As much as Helm would like to see his pay doubled he's still a grinder with almost no scoring upside to speak of-- he'll likely get 1-1.25 million. Miller and Eaves will probably get similar deals. If I had to guess I'd put them all at $1,000,000 each, but knowing Holland they might end up signing for $850,000.

--> Miller AND Eaves are returning. Pick one. They're essentially both the same player. This club is in dire need of more scoring so keeping extra grinders isn't the solution. I'd pick Eaves based on his scoring upside, but Miller's played his role well too. This is a tough call to make. Maybe they both stay like you said, it all depends on the Leino and Hudler situations as well as whether Holland is able to (or wants to) bring in more top 6 talent.

--> Bertuzzi walks. Not likely. He's stated that he wants to remain in Detroit and this is the perfect opportunity. He hasn't been able to stick with one team longer than a single season since he played in Vancouver. This guy does not want to hit the UFA market and start over again. Add to that the fact that he's played excellent this season and this guy will be signing a 2 year contract for a reasonable amount this summer. I'd peg the contract at $2,000,000 although Holland might get him for less-- it all depends on what his goal/pts total is after 82 games. Just to be safe I’ll use $2,250,000 below.

So, with those changes in mind here's what you have left:

2010 Outlook:

FORWARDS:

1) Datsyuk (6.7)

2) Zetterberg (6.083333)

3) Franzen (3.954545)

4) Filppula (3.0)

5) Cleary (2.8)

6) Bertuzzi (2.25)

7) Holmstrom (1.75)

8) Draper (1.583333)

9) Helm (1.0)

10) Eaves (0.850)

11) Miller (0.850)

12) Ritola (0.60)

31.4212

DEFENSEMEN:

1) Rafalski (6.0)

2) Stuart (3.75)

3) Kronwall (3.0)

4) Ericsson (0.9)

5) Kindl (0.883333)

6) Meech (0.5)

15.033333

GOALIES:

1) Howard (0.716666)

2) Osgood (1.416666)

2.133333

Salary Cap: 56.8

Total Salary: 48.587865

Cap Room: 8.212135

So now we have about 8 million dollars in cap room but are minus the player who made the Wings an elite defensive team for two decades. Not good. The d-core in this scenario is s***. Rafalski's the highest paid d-man in this scenario but he's clearly on the decline and is being paid based on his play coming into the contract (which is fine given that Holland knew he'd be overpaying Rafalski at the end of his contract-- that's the sacrifice he made to get Rafi signed here).

Unless next year is officially a rebuilding year the entirety of the money 'saved' from a hypothetical Lidstrom retirement would have to be spent on a suitable replacement. If you subtract Nick from this team and don't provide a suitably elite d-man to replace him the Wings defense will be horrifyingly bad next season. Kronwall, Stuart and Ericsson will all be better next season but that collective improvement can't offset the loss of the second greatest defenseman in the history of the game.

Add Kovalchuk to the roster and the Wings will be scoring in bunches, but defensively we would have to expect a very, very significant decline. Remember-- defense wins championships.

I just hope Holland can convince Lidstrom to re-sign for another year and keep him here long enough to get a handle on just what the top end potential is for the following players: Kronwall, Ericsson, Kindl and Smith. In other words, Holland will want to make a judgment call on whether they can "replace" Lidstrom from within (either with a single superstar, or some combination of quality players).

Edited January 21, 2010 by Drake_Marcus

[AtomicPunk 296]

The Thrashers are offering him a max out deal. He just wants to max them all the way out. From all I have heard, he is all about the cashish. Have not heard one quote about "his desire to win a Stanley Cup".

Everyone dreaming about him coming here, keep dreaming. I would love to see him here but it will not happen.

[Guest ZetterbergFourty]

Let's try and get rid of the NTC waste of money named Rafalski. Send his ***** ass back to New Jersey.

[Guest lilja4mvp]

if he was "all about the cash" he would have already signed. he may want a deal close to the max, but not in ATL.

he wants out.

[Datsyerberger 279]

Wow, you find a way to sign Ilya Kovalchuk to the Detroit Red Wings and you have DAN CLEARY on the 1st line.

XD that's what I was thinking, too.

[Guest malelion55]

Everyone dreaming about him coming here, keep dreaming. I would love to see him here but it will not happen.

Why, not??

[Datsyerberger 279]

--> Miller AND Eaves are returning. Pick one. They're essentially both the same player. This club is in dire need of more scoring so keeping extra grinders isn't the solution. I'd pick Eaves based on his scoring upside, but Miller's played his role well too. This is a tough call to make. Maybe they both stay like you said, it all depends on the Leino and Hudler situations as well as whether Holland is able to (or wants to) bring in more top 6 talent.

Only one I disagree with you on; then again, that's probably the most minor one on the list. You included him on your mock roster anyhow, and even with a 13th forward added to that list, Miller fits well as the 13th forward (or perhaps Ritola does).

[Datsasuk 2]

...Source: http://www.capgeek.com/charts.php?Team=15

2010 Outlook:

UFA's: Lidstrom (7.45), Holmstrom (2.25), Bertuzzi (1.5), Williams (1.5), Lilja (1.25), Maltby (0.883333), Lebda (0.65), May (0.5), Janik (0.5)

RFA's: Abdelkader (0.85), Larsson (0.85), Helm (0.599444), Miller (0.525), Ritola (0.511666), Eaves (0.5), Meech (0.483333)

FORWARDS:

1) Datsyuk (6.7)

2) Zetterberg (6.083333)

3) Franzen (3.954545)

4) Filppula (3.0)

5) Cleary (2.8)

6) Draper (1.583333)

7) Leino (0.8)

8) *Abdelkader (0.85)

9) *Helm (0.599444)

10) *Miller (0.525)

11) *Eaves (0.5)

12)

27.395655

...*Ritola (0.511666)

DEFENSEMEN:

1) Rafalski (6.0)

2) Stuart (3.75)

3) Kronwall (3.0)

4) Ericsson (0.9)

5) Kindl (0.883333)

6)

14.533333

...*Meech (0.483333)

GOALIES:

1) Howard (0.716666)

2) Osgood (1.416666)

2.133332

...*Larsson (0.85)

Salary Cap: 56.8

Total Salary: 44.06232

Cap Room: 12.73768

...So, right now, I am listing all of our restricted free agents at their current prices (though most will get a slight raise...probably 1-2 mil total). I also listed our probable 13th forward, 7th defenseman, and 3rd goalie's salaries, but I did not count them against our cap total. If the cap remains at about 56.8 mil, then we're going to have about 11-12 mil to spend on free agents. If we could sign Kovalchuck at about 7 mil, then we would still have about 4-5 mil to spend on resigning our own free agents. Depending on how much of a discount Lidstrom is willing to take, it might even be possible to resign Bertuzzi or Holmstrom as well (and if he chooses to retire, we could resign both). For now I'm going to lean towards pessimism (the cap could go down, some RFA's might get big raises, etc.) and assume that it won't be possible to resign either Bertuzzi or Holmstrom. Still though, our potential roster looks very, very nice...

Potential Lines:

Zetterberg-Datsyuk-Cleary

*Kovalchuck-Filppula-Franzen

Leino-Helm-Eaves

Draper-Abdelkader-Miller

*Lidstrom-Rafalski

Kronwall-Stuart

Ericsson-Meech

Howard

Larsson

Sorry dude, but I think that Kovalchuck is gonna try to get close to the league maximum if he tests free agency. 7 million is the least that he'll get, probably looking to make closer to 10.

[PROBIE4PREZ 58]

No thanks ... Fedorov part duece .. there really isnt any great players I'd pick up .. maybe Torres .. the FA pool for 2010 is s*** .. besides Lidstrom and Kovalchuck

[CenterIce 83]

if he was "all about the cash" he would have already signed. he may want a deal close to the max, but not in ATL.

he wants out.

Atlanta doesn't want to pay him the max. Also, he wants a long term deal. The "talk", so far, is that he wants 10-11 million/year for about 10 years.

[Zeta Power 40 1]

I will pray to the hockey god this summer! Get it done Kenny!

[Guest blueadams]

#1) F.Michael - We're talking about 11-12 million in cap space this off-season. Even at a stanley-cup-desire discount, Kovalchuck would still demand to become our highest paid player. So, that'd be about 7 million, leaving us with about 4-5 million in cap space. That's hardly enough to resign Lidstrom at market-value. No chance we could sign Kovalchuck, Lidstrom, Bertuzzi, AND Holmstrom. If Lidstrom takes a SERIOUS discount, then we might be able to get one of Bert or Homer at another SERIOUS discout. No chance of getting both, none whatsoever.

p.s. - If you want to call Kovalchuck "soon to be 27," then I'll call Holmstrom "soon to be 37," and Bertuzzi "soon to be 35."

#2) hillbillywingsfan - ESPN has included Detroit as a possible destination for Kovalchuck at the trade deadline...but at a ridiculous price that we would never pay (Franzen and others).

#3) wingsdiehard13 - Point taken on Kindl. I've changed my original post. 0.4 million increase going from Meech to him on the active roster. Doesn't make much of a difference in the plan.

#4) Wings_Dynasty - The top six is Kovie, Hank, Pav, Mule, Flip, Clears. You can arrange them however you want. That was just my best guess.

#5) Drake_Marcus - a) there's an outside chance that homer retires. It's the salary cap era. Holland's as classy as they come. But he's not going to blow a chance to add one of the best young players in the game to his core bc it'll hurt 37 year old Homer's feelings.

b) I'd be surprised if we gave up on Leino after one (half) season. His problem is his work-ethic on the ice, not his talent. He'll get it sooner or later, hopefully.

c) I'm guessing that the RFA raises total about 1-2 million against our cap, and I've factored that into my explanation.

d) There's nothing wrong with having two cheap defensively responsible players like Eaves AND Miller on your roster in the salary-cap era. We might have to adjust our expectations a little bit (if we haven't all already). Two good scoring lines. Two good defensive lines. That's about all you can expect to have (until young cheap scorers like Tatar, Ferraro, Emmerton start coming up).

e) I agree. We want Bert back. Bert wants to be back. But we're not going to pass on Kovie to spare his feelings. I'd rather have him back than Homer, because I think he's got more years left. But if we sign Kovie and Lidstrom, I don't see us having the room to keep either.

f) Lidstrom may be the best defenseman of all time. But right now, he's not a super star. And we wouldn't need to replace him with a superstar to get the same production. He's really not much above Raffy, Stuie and Kronner as far as talent level is concerned right now. And we've got three really good young guys in Ericsson, Kindl, and Smith on the way. I don't see a need to add a superstar defenseman as much as I see a need to add a true scorer.

#6) ZetterbergFourty - If we REALLY want Kovie, Lidstrom AND Bertuzzi AND Holmstrom...and we need to shed some salary...then Raffy is probably where we'd look. That being said though, I don't see it happening.

#7) OBVIOUSLY...All of this talk about signing Kovalchuck is dependent on the HOPE that he will prefer winning stanley cups to an extra 2-3 million a year. That he'll buy into the red wing way. If he doesn't, then it's not going to happen. And if that's the case, then maybe he isn't a guy that we would want anyways. People around here talk about Kovie the exact same way they used to talk about Hossa. But in the end, Hossa ended up being a guy that did care about winning more than money. He didn't resign with us...but he still signed for less money than he could have got to join a winning team. We'll see. We'll see.

Edited January 21, 2010 by blueadams

[LeftWinger 5,153]

First of all, Hudler won't be coming back, not for less than half the money he is making MINUS taxes as well. Lidstrom needs to hang em up. The RFA's will get a modest raise, since none of them are really tearing it up, yet they desever a raise because of all the work they've done this season. We will need to sign a couple of D to replace Lids, Lebda, Meech & Lilja. Willie Mitchell is a UFA and so is Derek Morris & Aaron Ward. With that, I am not sure if we can afford a Kovalchuk, he is rumored to wanting the max, and Detroit is no longer the discount warehouse it used to be, it will take some money to get some folks here. I would still love to steal Andrew Ladd and or Hjalmarsson out of Chicago. Rafi Torres is a UFA so is Fernando Pisani, those could be some cheaper talent to try to get. Kovi is definately the cream of the crop UFA this offseason, there are plenty of teams that will be able to throw the max at him. I just hope he doesn't go to Pitts, they have $15M available next season, although they only have 2 defensemen signed next season though. I can't wait to start hearing all the Mike Grier talk around here again! BARF!

edit: When it comes down to it Stuart needs to be your number 1 priority to keep around. Rafi should retire in three years, his contract is up the same time Stuart's is. If you can swing Mitchell for a few years that'll give you a top 4 of Rafi, Stuart, Kronner, Mitchell, with Ericsson #5.

edit: If Lidstrom retires (using the OP's modest rasise to RFA's) we should be able to get Bertuzzi at the same or less than now and throw a big contract at Kovi. But that pretty much removes Mitchell from my plans (unless he takes less money, but I am not gonna start going in that direction.) I gave Abdelkader $1M, Bertuzzi $1M, Helm $850,000, Miller $525,000 & Eaves $500,000. I then gave Kovalchuk $8.9M (Crosby cash since like it or not, he should be the benchmark) which leaves $3.3M to sign two or three defense, since only 4 guys remain signed into next season...

Edited January 21, 2010 by LeftWinger

[Namingway 146]

From what I've noticed on other team's forums, everybody is thinking they can sign Kovalchuk. I really doubt that he'd sign with the Wings even though I'd love that. Although I thought the same thing about Hossa. The only thing is not many people expected Hossa to sign here. A lot of people seem to think that we can get Kovalchuk, therefor it won't happen