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Richdg

The Holiday tradition: 2016 Draft thoughts.....

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I have typically started these around the first of the year, so off to the races!

Before we get into the draft a quick review of the organizations strengths and weaknesses.

Strengths: we have a ton of guys that can skate, handle the puck, and shoot the puck. F's and Dmen. RHers and LHers. We have a very good pipeline of young F's on the team or that will be here soon.

Weaknesses: Very little G depth and while we have several good young Dmen, most lose their waiver protection next summer and have to stay with the Wings or risk being lost. There are 2 types of players that the organization lacks completely: Front of net forwards that can screen a goalie, deflect shots, bang home rebounds and pound on the other teams D behind the net and in the corners. We also have 0 Dmen that can clear the crease and pound on the other teams F's behind our net and in the corners. We need some Dave Backes type forwards and Marc Staal type blueliners. Another G prospect in this draft is a must and if a good C is available in case one of Larkin, Sheahan, or AA don't pan out that would also be wise with Datsyuk down to his last year-next season.

Picks available: we have our 1st, 2nd, no 3rd, and then the 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th. Yes there is a chance that Tor could give us the 3rd they owe us this year for signing Babcock, but most expect that to happen next season.

Standings: as of today Washington is running away with the EC at 56 points. There are 9 teams between 40 and 46 points including us in the EC. I said before the season that we would once again finish between 6th and 10th in the EC. To date nothing has changed that opinion. Add in the teams from the WC and the best guess is we will be drafting once again between 14 and 22. We will either just make the PO's or just miss making it, we are talking about a 4 point swing one way or the other. Yes it is possible we have tragic injuries and fall apart-unlikely or that we could get red-hot and make a deep run-also unlikely IMHO. So the 14th to 22nd spot seems about right-as of today.

One last thought. The last 3 1st round picks (Mantha, Larkin, and Svechnikov) are 6-4, 6-1, and 6-2 respectively. They average out to 6-2.5 inches tall.

Now for some names to watch for by round, starting with the 1st.

1st round:

Julien Gauthier RW 6-3/225 from VDO. He is the perfect front of net player. Currently he has 29 goals and 8 assists in 33 games. All of his goals come from inside of 15ft. he is actually a very good skater with good speed. he just loves to play the Holmstrom type of game and is very very good at it. ISS has him as the 11th best player in their December ranking. Most mock drafts have him going from 15th to 25th. He is a RHed shooter as well. That would balance out Mantha or Svechnikov who are both LHed.

Logan Brown C 6-5/220 from Windsor. very good 2 way Cman. Think a taller version of Sheahan with slightly better offensive abilities. A future 50 point guy and solid 2/3 C in the NHL. ISS had him ranked at 8th in December, but every mock draft has him lower than that. Most in the 18th-20th range.

Nathan Bastien C 6-4/210 from Miss. Another good 2 way C but with better offensive upside than Brown. He started this season rated as a late 2nd round guy/early 3rd round. But his offensive game has shown up and he is a big riser. He was 22nd by ISS in december. Most other sites haven't updated yet and are still showing him in the second/third round.

Markus Niemelainen D 6-5/200 from Saginaw. finnish Dman who skates well and plays good D. Have yet to see a scouting site/service that doesn't have him in the top 30. 25th is the average spot of his rankings. Most Finnish defenders tend to have a physical side to their game.

I would be fine with any of those 4 guys. My hope is Gauthier. he fits our biggest need and would complete an awesome top line down the road. If taken we could have the following 2 top lines:

Mantha-larkin-gauthier

Svechnikov-Sheahan-AA or AA-Sheahan

That could be 2 very good lines.

I will do the second round a bit later. There are more Dmen that fit our needs better in the second than in the 1st. Most of the 1st round Dmen are smaller guys that are good puck movers. Not the crease clearing guys we need to find.

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How far down the line are you looking? Tatar and Nyquist will be on this team for a long time (unless dealt.)

I love the Gauthier pick and of he is legit, he could fill that need, but it's my opinion that we need to fill that role via trade or UFA in the next season or two. I actually wouldn't mind (since we do have so much talent in the wings, runing out of exemptions soon) if we dangled the 1st or 2nd in a trade package for a player we really need. I am done with the Swedish and Finnish D-Men, I hope and pray that Holland stops drafting them and would be very mad if he used a 1st round pick on one.

I am still of the opinion that we will trade Richards at the deadline to a team that is looking for that extra player to maybe put them over the top in to serious Cup contention. His playoff experience is invaluable, but I don't see us wining he Cup this year with him or without him. He could fetch us an extra 2nd or 3rd. Paul Gaustad went for a 1st a few years ago, wouldn't that be something? We then could for sure dangle a 1st out there in a trade package come draft day...

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Now the second round. This is were I would go after a Dman. There are a couple of guys that should/could be available mid second round that I would take a look at.

James Greenway 6-5/205 LHed D. He is a good solid skater plays with an edge and shows some potential offensively. most mock drafts have him going between 40 and 50. Needs to go eat some steaks and potatos and hit the weightroom. But 3-4 years from now should be in the 225-230 range.

Sean Day 6-3/235 LHed D. Day is the most debated player in this draft. He has great talent but has been tagged with the lazy label. He is a quite soft spoken kid that everyone thinks he should be a top 5 pick but hasn't produced yet... He could be the steal of the draft in the mid-second round or out of pro-hockey within 5 years. Where Greenway needs to eat more steak and potatos, Day needs more fruits and veggies to lose a couple of pounds. he could be a monster at 220, but is on the soft/jelly belly side now.

Stephen Dhillon 6-4/185 G. If the better Dmen are gone at this point, then this is the G I would look at. Tall and athletic-the new trend in the NHL.

Next up the 4th round.


How far down the line are you looking? Tatar and Nyquist will be on this team for a long time (unless dealt.)

I love the Gauthier pick and of he is legit, he could fill that need, but it's my opinion that we need to fill that role via trade or UFA in the next season or two. I actually wouldn't mind (since we do have so much talent in the wings, runing out of exemptions soon) if we dangled the 1st or 2nd in a trade package for a player we really need. I am done with the Swedish and Finnish D-Men, I hope and pray that Holland stops drafting them and would be very mad if he used a 1st round pick on one.

I am still of the opinion that we will trade Richards at the deadline to a team that is looking for that extra player to maybe put them over the top in to serious Cup contention. His playoff experience is invaluable, but I don't see us wining he Cup this year with him or without him. He could fetch us an extra 2nd or 3rd. Paul Gaustad went for a 1st a few years ago, wouldn't that be something? We then could for sure dangle a 1st out there in a trade package come draft day...

I am looking 5 years down the road. Gauthier is a replacement/upgrade over Abby. If he was drafted he plays 1 more year in junior, then 2-3 in GR. Then a year or 2 on the 3rd line. By that time Abby's contract is up.

Nyquist and Tatar are both nice players. But 3 or 4 years from now is a long time. Maybe we have to move 1 or both due to cap. Or if we make a deal. You have to give to get. So who knows.

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Ok the 4th round. This is the round I would like to see us add a G for the future. Goalie prospects are always the biggest risk so you never know what you are getting. That being said some names:

Joseph Woll 6-3/195 LHed G. Solid goalie for the USNDT.

Filip Larsson 6-2/180 LHed G. Yes a Swed but a pretty good G overall.

If not a G, then more Dmen.

Ondrej Vala 6-3/190 LHed D. Good solid Czech Dman.

Logan Stanley 6-6.25/210 LHed D. Raw and huge. That said is a solid defender and has a good first pass.

Austin Osmanski 6-4/200 LHed D. Good solid stay at home type. Think Ericsson as a similar player. More physical though.

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I really think we should be going D in the 1st round if we don't trade our pick in a package for an nhl ready Dman. We have plenty of promising forwards to keep the team home grown. Our D prospects are mostly running out of options soon and we don't have a blue chipper among them. Of course if an amazing forward falls to our pick we would take him but if it comes down to similar value players I take the Dman.

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I really think we should be going D in the 1st round if we don't trade our pick in a package for an nhl ready Dman. We have plenty of promising forwards to keep the team home grown. Our D prospects are mostly running out of options soon and we don't have a blue chipper among them. Of course if an amazing forward falls to our pick we would take him but if it comes down to similar value players I take the Dman.

It is a need vs. value thing. Yes adding another young Dman makes sense. But this draft is strong on F's and weak on Dmen. There isn't much of value in terms of Dman between 14 and 22. Yes someone could fall. Or we could trade up/down. But as of today based on what we know a F makes more sense.

Now I personally prefer to draft for F's and trade for Dmen. Dmen take a long time to develop in general and you only have 3 years of waiver protection now. Most Dmen reach their peaks 26+ so let others draft/develop then trade for them.

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Now look at our potential roster in say 2020ish.

Forwards:

Larkin, AA, Sheahan, Nosek, Glendening, Turgeon, Pearson, Mantha, Svechnickov, Nyquist, tatar, Pulks, Jurco, gauither, McKee, Lil Bert, Nastasiak and Abby.

That is a strong group of 18.

Blueline:

Dekeyser, marchenko, Oullett, Sproul, Smith, greenway, and Saarijarvi.

A good group. Still need to add more.

Goalies:

Marezk, Paterson, and Van Pottelberghe.

That overall is a very good group of future prospects overall. This of course does not include anyone from the 2017 and beyond drafts, of which a few will make this list. Nor are any UFA's or trades included. We do have a surplus of F's IF they all make it-which is unlikely.

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Now look at our potential roster in say 2020ish.

Forwards:

Larkin, AA, Sheahan, Nosek, Glendening, Turgeon, Pearson, Mantha, Svechnickov, Nyquist, tatar, Pulks, Jurco, gauither, McKee, Lil Bert, Nastasiak and Abby.

That is a strong group of 18.

Blueline:

Dekeyser, marchenko, Oullett, Sproul, Smith, greenway, and Saarijarvi.

A good group. Still need to add more.

Goalies:

Marezk, Paterson, and Van Pottelberghe.

That overall is a very good group of future prospects overall. This of course does not include anyone from the 2017 and beyond drafts, of which a few will make this list. Nor are any UFA's or trades included. We do have a surplus of F's IF they all make it-which is unlikely.

Coreau will be mrazeks back up.

Book it,

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Been a few months so time to update. Before I said we would pick between 14 and 22. As of today it is looking more 10 to 16th in each round. If we end up in the range Gauthier becomes a real possibility. A top line of Mantha-Larkin-Gauthier would be a GREAT top line down the road.

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Been a few months so time to update. Before I said we would pick between 14 and 22. As of today it is looking more 10 to 16th in each round. If we end up in the range Gauthier becomes a real possibility. A top line of Mantha-Larkin-Gauthier would be a GREAT top line down the road.

Still a lot of hockey to be played so it's tough to predict where the Wings will pick but one thing is for sure they need defense, defense, defense the Edmonton model should have shown everyone that you can't outscore your defensive problems.

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Still a lot of hockey to be played so it's tough to predict where the Wings will pick but one thing is for sure they need defense, defense, defense the Edmonton model should have shown everyone that you can't outscore your defensive problems.

At this rate, we can pick a Dman in the top 10 :)

I'll take that over 4 extra games in the playoffs

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At this rate, we can pick a Dman in the top 10 :)

I'll take that over 4 extra games in the playoffs

Man that would be something else, Wings would get a very very good defender with that pick. I have to look at up but if this continues maybe even top 5 is possible?

ok I've looked it up forget the Wings would have to lose every game from here on out and hope that the other teams aren't winning another game :(

Edited by frankgrimes

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Man that would be something else, Wings would get a very very good defender with that pick. I have to look at up but if this continues maybe even top 5 is possible?

ok I've looked it up forget the Wings would have to lose every game from here on out and hope that the other teams aren't winning another game :(

The draft lottery changed this year, every team in the bottom 15 has a chance at the first pick. Its not out of the realm of reason to go from 15 to say, 10th.

Actually, at this moment we have a 1% chance of the top pick. WAHOO! Austin Matthews

http://nhllotterysimulator.com/

Already cheesed at the fact the Oilers will most likely get #1, let alone almost guaranteed for a top 3.

Edited by WingsallTheway

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The draft lottery changed this year, every team in the bottom 15 has a chance at the first pick. Its not out of the realm of reason to go from 15 to say, 10th.

Actually, at this moment we have a 1% chance of the top pick. WAHOO! Austin Matthews

http://nhllotterysimulator.com/

Already cheesed at the fact the Oilers will most likely get #1, let alone almost guaranteed for a top 3.

Wow so that means Edmonton Edmonton will soon have a line of Laine/Puljujarvi McJesus Hall - f*** that such an insane line wow. No wonder oilers fans are excited I would be too.All Chiarelli has to do is trade another young guy for a stud d men...Edmonton will be scary good soon

A 1 percent chance at Matthews? I'd take that over the playoffs for sure because it would also mean a higher chance on one of the other top picks

Edited by frankgrimes

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Wow so that means Edmonton Edmonton will soon have a line of Laine/Puljujarvi McJesus Hall - f*** that such an insane line wow. No wonder oilers fans are excited I would be too.All Chiarelli has to do is trade another young guy for a stud d men...Edmonton will be scary good soon

A 1 percent chance at Matthews? I'd take that over the playoffs for sure because it would also mean a higher chance on one of the other top picks

Yeah I'm a big fan of the new lottery system. Doesn't play into the hands of the bottom feeders and it gives mediocre teams around the 10-15th spot a chance to continue succeeding and land an above average pick instead of floating around in mediocricy.

This also works out for the Oilers unfortunately because they will be an average team for the next 2-4 years. This gives them even more chances at top picks when that previously wouldn't have been the case. Luckiest team in sports.

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Yes we need to upgrade our D. The problem is we need to do it now, not 3-4 years from now. There isn't a Dman in this draft that is really ready to play in the NHL right now. We would be much further ahead to draft another F and then trade for a Dman. So take Gauthier in the 1st, a development Dman in the 2nd, and then trade tatar and/or Nyquist for a Dman or 2. No yes that would require Holland to stop kicking tires and do something, but we would be better off. We need good veteran Dman that have proven they can play. To many 1st round Dmen turn into Smith and Kindl.

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I've said for the past couple drafts that we should try to draft a defenseman in the first round, but once again there doesn't seem to be any high end guys that will be available where I think we will end up picking. So unless one of two things happen, a player like Jake Bean or Mikhail Sergachev drops down to us (doubtful), or we trade up for a player like Jacob Chychrun or Olli Juolevi (not going to happen), we should probably take another forward... Of the forwards that will likely be available at or around where we pick, I really like Max Jones and Kieffer Bellows.

In saying that, our biggest need still remains to be on the back end, but realistically no one we're going to draft in June will be ready for another couple years minimum anyway, so our best option is likely to package some players together in a trade for a top pair defenseman... I like some of our defense prospects, but I don't see any becoming a legit number one. Russo and Sproul probably have the highest ceilings but I don't really see either becoming anything more than 2nd pairing guys...

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Max Jones is going to be a good NHL player. The question with him is offense. Will he score enough to move above the checking line? He has good size, good speed, loves to hit, and will gladly drop the gloves to protect his team mates. he could be a poor mans McCarty. But is that a first round pick value? That is the question with him.

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I'll admit, I don't know a ton about Jones, other than the few articles I've read, few clips I've seen and his stat line, but what would give you the impression that he might not be able to put up the points? Or that he may never be anything more than a checker / depth guy? Everything I've read has been very positive, the clips I've seen have been impressive and his stats are very good for a junior rookie. He had 52 points (28 goals, 24 assists) in 63 games in his first year with the Knights, and just turned 18 years old last month. To compare, Dylan Strome for example, put up 39 points (10 goals, 29 assists) in 60 games in his rookie season, and then went on to put up 129 points (45 goals, 84 assists) in 68 games, and 111 points (37 goals, 74 assists) in 56 games the following two seasons... Strome is one of the most highly touted prospects in the Coyotes organization and will likely become a top line player and have a great career. Again, if there's something I'm missing or something you know that most don't, please enlighten me why you don't think he'll be anything more than a Darren McCarty type player... To me, he seems like he could be a perfect fit on a top line alongside Larkin in a few years...

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He is not a natural offensive player. That doesn't mean he can't become a good scorer. That is not my opinion either. Most scouting reports on him say the same thing. Does he score enough at the NHL level?

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Please point me toward a scouting report that says he is not an offensive player... I cannot find one, and even if there is one, most other reports say otherwise, as well as his stats.. He also put up 11 points (7 goals, 4 assists) in just 6 games in the World Under-17 Hockey Challenge last season, which ranked him number 2 in the entire tournament... I'm not buying that he isn't an offensive player, and the more I think about it, the less I believe he will be available when we pick...

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http://www.thedraftanalyst.com/prospects/max-jones/

http://www.draftsite.com/nhl/player/max-jones/22601/

http://octopusthrower.com/2016/03/03/detroit-red-wings-draft-profile-max-jones/

there are of course others. Yes he has tools to be a good offensive player, but then again so did Stu Grimson and kirk Maltby. Neither scored much in the NHL. Will Jones? To soon to know. I like the kid and will not be upset if we take him. I prefer Gauither as he is already scoring at a much higher level. Jones is the better skater between the 2. But anytime we can add an in-state kid that is a legit prospect is a plus.


Gauthier had 41 goals in 54 games for VD. To go along with the 32 goals in 50 games that Scvehnikov scored, this becomes a good pair to add in 2-3 years.

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