Unusual Wings Stats

[Wings_Dynasty 267]

FROM RED WINGS CORNER:

I've underlined what surprised me.

Even Strength Goals By Ice Time

Here's a look at how individual Red Wings measure in terms of goals that they're on the ice for (for and against) per 60 minutes of even-strength ice time. Please note that these numbers are strictly for even-strength time, not special teams.

Forwards GF per 60 minutes

Datsyuk 4.2

Zetterberg 3.8

Cleary 3.8

Holmstrom 3.4

Hudler 3.4

Filppula 2.9

RED WINGS 2.9

Samuelsson 2.6

Ellis 2.5

Kopecky 2.1

Maltby 2.1

Draper 1.9

Franzen 1.8

Downey 1.8

Hartigan 1.2

Drake 1.1

Forwards GA per 60 minutes

Franzen 0.9

Hartigan 1.2

Filppula 1.5

Samuelsson 1.5

Datsyuk 1.6

Hudler 1.7

RED WINGS 1.7

Draper 1.8

Kopecky 1.8

Ellis 1.8

Zetterberg 1.9

Holmstrom 1.9

Drake 1.9

Cleary 2.0

Maltby 2.1

Downey 2.2

Defensemen GF per 60 minutes

Lidstrom 4.0

Kronwall 3.2

RED WINGS 2.9

Rafalski 2.7

Lilja 2.7

Lebda 2.1

Chelios 2.0

Meech 1.5

Defensemen GA per 60 minutes

Lidstrom 1.4

Lebda 1.4

Chelios 1.5

Kronwall 1.6

RED WINGS 1.6

Rafalski 1.8

Lilja 2.2

Meech 3.0

-- Usually you take a look at the stats and try to factor in opposition, linemates, etc. But all that goes out the window with Nicklas Lidstrom. He is the one player who is matched up against the opposition's best -- Ilya Kovalchuk, Dany Heatley, Jarome Iginla, Joe Thornton. But his stats aren't fazed by that. Lidstrom is so far ahead of the rest of the blue-liners in offense created that he ruins the curve. Only Niklas Kronwall is above the team average that's buoyed by Lidstrom's numbers.

-- As good as Henrik Zetterberg has been, these numbers appreciate a player like Pavel Datsyuk and how he controls play on both ends of the ice. Zetterberg is the MVP candidate, but the Red Wings have outscored opponents 51-20 with Datsyuk on the ice and 42-21 with Zetterberg on the ice. I'm not sure that Datsyuk hasn't had the better season.

-- The shut-down forward has become Johan Franzen. Opponents average less than 1 goal per 60 minutes of even-strength time with Franzenstein on the ice. (The Red Wings have outscored opponents 15-7 with Franzen out there.) It's not surprising. In Franzen's first season in Detroit, he was clearly the most effective penalty killer among forwards.

-- In the underrated category would have to be Dan Cleary's offense, Mikael Samuelsson's defense, Jiri Hudler's defense and Andreas Lilja's offense. Lilja shows well in offense in this stat every season and poor on even-strength defense. Neither should be very surprising. Lilja can head-man the puck well and he soaks up so much defensive responsibility that the Wings can usually go with a four-man attack.

-- The lack of offense from Kris Draper, Tomas Kopecky and Kirk Maltby is acceptable because they at least keep their offense to the break-even point with their defense. Dallas Drake, however, has similar defense stats, but his offense is so low that it's a drain. The Red Wings have been outscored 11-6 with Drake on the ice. With Maltby (10-10), Draper (16-15) and Kopecky (13-11), the Wings are at least break-even.

-- A few stats to impress your friends with ... Of the Red Wings' 108 even-strength goals, Lidstrom has been on the ice for 58, Datsyuk for 51.

There are seven Red Wings who have been on the ice for about double the number of goals for as against ... Lidstrom (58-20), Datsyuk (51-20), Franzen (15-7), Zetterberg (42-21), Valtteri Filppula (32-16), Jiri Hudler (28-14) and Cleary (39-20). Those are seven very good two-way players (although Hudler doesn't get credit for being such.) Note that even though the Red Wings don't score much with Franzen on the ice, the team still has a huge advantage over the opposition.

Matt Ellis has been effective (7-5) in limited time.

[seeinred 1,488]

Cool stats. I wonder how Nick's avg compares to the rest of the league.

[irishtemper14+25 11]

really cool stats

[55fan 5,133]

I've never really appreciated Franzen (except in Calgary last year) but now I think I'm going to have to rethink my feelings towards him.

I didn't realize Hudler and Kronwall were that good either.

Great stats. Thanks for posting.

BTW- I love that Eurotwins powers activate. I always had an unnatural crush on Zan. Which prompts the question: Which is Jana? Ah, but that's for another thread.

[SweWings 45]

Always cool to get stats that sheds some light on players' under appreciated qualities. I doubt Sammy will suddenly get a lot of love after this showing tho...

[lfd250 1]

Great stats, very interesting. But being the devils avacate (SP) I would hope Franzen's goals against is low. He's not out there against the top lines of other teams (other then sometimes on the PK) He is sometimes on a scoring line and sometimes on the checking line but doesn't really match with the other teams scores. Hence he's not out there when the other team should score.

[lets go pavel 2]

Great stats, very interesting. But being the devils avacate (SP) I would hope Franzen's goals against is low. He's not out there against the top lines of other teams (other then sometimes on the PK) He is sometimes on a scoring line and sometimes on the checking line but doesn't really match with the other teams scores. Hence he's not out there when the other team should score.

yeah, i'm not sure we should be annointing Franzen "THE shut-down forward" or "best defensive forward" until he's putting up those kind of numbers against the other teams' big guns ... i do think he's growing into that role though ...

still pretty cool to look at ...

[imisssergei 0]

FROM RED WINGS CORNER:

I've underlined what surprised me.

Even Strength Goals By Ice Time

Here's a look at how individual Red Wings measure in terms of goals that they're on the ice for (for and against) per 60 minutes of even-strength ice time. Please note that these numbers are strictly for even-strength time, not special teams.

Forwards GF per 60 minutes

Datsyuk 4.2

Zetterberg 3.8

Cleary 3.8

Holmstrom 3.4

Hudler 3.4

Filppula 2.9

RED WINGS 2.9

Samuelsson 2.6

Ellis 2.5

Kopecky 2.1

Maltby 2.1

Draper 1.9

Franzen 1.8

Downey 1.8

Hartigan 1.2

Drake 1.1

Forwards GA per 60 minutes

Franzen 0.9

Hartigan 1.2

Filppula 1.5

Samuelsson 1.5

Datsyuk 1.6

Hudler 1.7

RED WINGS 1.7

Draper 1.8

Kopecky 1.8

Ellis 1.8

Zetterberg 1.9

Holmstrom 1.9

Drake 1.9

Cleary 2.0

Maltby 2.1

Downey 2.2

Defensemen GF per 60 minutes

Lidstrom 4.0

Kronwall 3.2

RED WINGS 2.9

Rafalski 2.7

Lilja 2.7

Lebda 2.1

Chelios 2.0

Meech 1.5

Defensemen GA per 60 minutes

Lidstrom 1.4

Lebda 1.4

Chelios 1.5

Kronwall 1.6

RED WINGS 1.6

Rafalski 1.8

Lilja 2.2

Meech 3.0

-- Usually you take a look at the stats and try to factor in opposition, linemates, etc. But all that goes out the window with Nicklas Lidstrom. He is the one player who is matched up against the opposition's best -- Ilya Kovalchuk, Dany Heatley, Jarome Iginla, Joe Thornton. But his stats aren't fazed by that. Lidstrom is so far ahead of the rest of the blue-liners in offense created that he ruins the curve. Only Niklas Kronwall is above the team average that's buoyed by Lidstrom's numbers.

-- As good as Henrik Zetterberg has been, these numbers appreciate a player like Pavel Datsyuk and how he controls play on both ends of the ice. Zetterberg is the MVP candidate, but the Red Wings have outscored opponents 51-20 with Datsyuk on the ice and 42-21 with Zetterberg on the ice. I'm not sure that Datsyuk hasn't had the better season.

-- The shut-down forward has become Johan Franzen. Opponents average less than 1 goal per 60 minutes of even-strength time with Franzenstein on the ice. (The Red Wings have outscored opponents 15-7 with Franzen out there.) It's not surprising. In Franzen's first season in Detroit, he was clearly the most effective penalty killer among forwards.

-- In the underrated category would have to be Dan Cleary's offense, Mikael Samuelsson's defense, Jiri Hudler's defense and Andreas Lilja's offense. Lilja shows well in offense in this stat every season and poor on even-strength defense. Neither should be very surprising. Lilja can head-man the puck well and he soaks up so much defensive responsibility that the Wings can usually go with a four-man attack.

-- The lack of offense from Kris Draper, Tomas Kopecky and Kirk Maltby is acceptable because they at least keep their offense to the break-even point with their defense. Dallas Drake, however, has similar defense stats, but his offense is so low that it's a drain. The Red Wings have been outscored 11-6 with Drake on the ice. With Maltby (10-10), Draper (16-15) and Kopecky (13-11), the Wings are at least break-even.

-- A few stats to impress your friends with ... Of the Red Wings' 108 even-strength goals, Lidstrom has been on the ice for 58, Datsyuk for 51.

There are seven Red Wings who have been on the ice for about double the number of goals for as against ... Lidstrom (58-20), Datsyuk (51-20), Franzen (15-7), Zetterberg (42-21), Valtteri Filppula (32-16), Jiri Hudler (28-14) and Cleary (39-20). Those are seven very good two-way players (although Hudler doesn't get credit for being such.) Note that even though the Red Wings don't score much with Franzen on the ice, the team still has a huge advantage over the opposition.

Matt Ellis has been effective (7-5) in limited time.

Nice job, but I don't think you ca do skaters stats on a per 60 minute averag. I think to get a real idea of how guys are producing, you need to do a per game stat. The reason is no skater will ever come close to 60 minutes of ice time in a sigle game.

[lets go pavel 2]

Nice job, but I don't think you ca do skaters stats on a per 60 minute averag. I think to get a real idea of how guys are producing, you need to do a per game stat. The reason is no skater will ever come close to 60 minutes of ice time in a sigle game.

the reason you do it per 60 minutes is to compensate for the differing times-on-ice ... the #'s themselves aren't realistic expectations for performance, but they give you a level comparison between players ...

for example, Lidstrom has been on ice for 20 goals against in 48 games for an average of .42 GA/game .... Ellis has been on ice for 5 goals against in 31 games for an average of .16 GA/game ... by these numbers Ellis is far superior defensively, but what they don't take into account is that Ellis average 5:27 TOI per game while Lids averages 27:19, 5 times as much ...

(i used total TOI, not even-strength only, but it makes the same point)

Edited January 19, 2008 by lets go pavel

[edicius 3,269]

I think we're all overlooking one awesome thing here...apparently the "Franzenstein" nickname has really caught on if Bruce McLeod's calling him that.

[eva unit zero 271]

The only problem I have with this is the way it's presented;

It does not account for differences in PP, PK, or ES. All goals scored are just lumped in and divided by total ice time; this doesn't account for the fact that top defensive forwards play a lot of minutes shorthanded against the other team's best offensive players--the Wings' top four penalty-killing forwards are all above the team's average.

It also doesn't account for the fact that players can benefit from their linemates' abilities without doing anything themselves.

A good complementary stat would be something showing which linemates were on the ice for whatever average of goals; Zetterberg's linemates might look like Datsyuk 2.4, Cleary 1.6, Hudler 1.4...or something like that. That and splitting it up between man-advantage and even strength situations. I bet if you take away PP goals against, Franzen is not the top defensive forward...and Lidstrom is that much further ahead of everyone else.

[lets go pavel 2]

The only problem I have with this is the way it's presented;

It does not account for differences in PP, PK, or ES. All goals scored are just lumped in and divided by total ice time; this doesn't account for the fact that top defensive forwards play a lot of minutes shorthanded against the other team's best offensive players--the Wings' top four penalty-killing forwards are all above the team's average.

It also doesn't account for the fact that players can benefit from their linemates' abilities without doing anything themselves.

A good complementary stat would be something showing which linemates were on the ice for whatever average of goals; Zetterberg's linemates might look like Datsyuk 2.4, Cleary 1.6, Hudler 1.4...or something like that. That and splitting it up between man-advantage and even strength situations. I bet if you take away PP goals against, Franzen is not the top defensive forward...and Lidstrom is that much further ahead of everyone else.

i think the stats were all even strength, at least that's what it sounded like in the original post ... but you're right, it doesn't take into account linemates ... i guess just another example of why stats, although useful, are often misleading or misinterpretted, and sometimes it's better to just watch the game and trust what you see ...

[eva unit zero 271]

i think the stats were all even strength, at least that's what it sounded like in the original post ... but you're right, it doesn't take into account linemates ... i guess just another example of why stats, although useful, are often misleading or misinterpretted, and sometimes it's better to just watch the game and trust what you see ...

You're right, it does say even strength in there. But it still doesn't account for who is on the ice...

how do we know that most of Lilja's offense hasn't come with Lidstrom and the ZDH line on the ice?

[58Miles2Joe 12]

great post

+1

[stormboy 47]

yeah, the issue of how linemates affects these stats is interesting. as someone else mentioned, stats can never tell the whole story. i mean, in theory, you could have a guy who makes the plays all the time, but is always the fourth guy removed from the goal, so he never gets an assist, that kind of thing. so he doesn't have very many points, but is contributing to the offense a lot. on the other hand, you could have a guy who really isn't that good at all, but just gets put with really great players, so he's on the ice for a lot of goals.

i like these stats, though, because they don't give the per-game stats, which are even more misleading. good and interesting post.

[thedisappearer 291]

Interesting. All valid points made previously.

Did you compile those yourself?

[imisssergei 0]

the reason you do it per 60 minutes is to compensate for the differing times-on-ice ... the #'s themselves aren't realistic expectations for performance, but they give you a level comparison between players ...

for example, Lidstrom has been on ice for 20 goals against in 48 games for an average of .42 GA/game .... Ellis has been on ice for 5 goals against in 31 games for an average of .16 GA/game ... by these numbers Ellis is far superior defensively, but what they don't take into account is that Ellis average 5:27 TOI per game while Lids averages 27:19, 5 times as much ...

(i used total TOI, not even-strength only, but it makes the same point)

I still disagree. The particular example you used is a great way to plug in +/- as well as toi.

The reason that I don't agree with the 60 minute average is that for a guy like Lids, that's over the course of 2-3 games. With a guy like Ellis, that's a 10-12 game average. In a 10-12 game streak, you could have both a hot and cold streak for a player. The only way, IMO, to compare guys is on the per game, and overall levels.

[eva unit zero 271]

I still disagree. The particular example you used is a great way to plug in +/- as well as toi.

The reason that I don't agree with the 60 minute average is that for a guy like Lids, that's over the course of 2-3 games. With a guy like Ellis, that's a 10-12 game average. In a 10-12 game streak, you could have both a hot and cold streak for a player. The only way, IMO, to compare guys is on the per game, and overall levels.

Ok, so what happens if we are looking at something like this:

Jiri Hudler plays 12.83 minutes per game, and has scored 11 goals in 49 games. That means he scores .22 goals per game, and 1.04 goals per 60 minutes, including special teams play. Averaged to 20 minutes per game, that would project him to 28 goals on a full season.

Pavel Datsyuk plays 21.4 minutes per game, and has scored 17 goals in 49 games. That means he scores .35 goals per game, but only .97 per 60 minutes. Averaged to 20 minutes, that projects to 27 goals on a full season.

Who's the better goal scorer, Hudler or Datsyuk?

[imisssergei 0]

Ok, so what happens if we are looking at something like this:

Jiri Hudler plays 12.83 minutes per game, and has scored 11 goals in 49 games. That means he scores .22 goals per game, and 1.04 goals per 60 minutes, including special teams play. Averaged to 20 minutes per game, that would project him to 28 goals on a full season.

Pavel Datsyuk plays 21.4 minutes per game, and has scored 17 goals in 49 games. That means he scores .35 goals per game, but only .97 per 60 minutes. Averaged to 20 minutes, that projects to 27 goals on a full season.

Who's the better goal scorer, Hudler or Datsyuk?

Why would you average it out to 20 minutes per game? That's no different than doing it the way the original poster suggested. Again, IMO the only way to compare guys is on a per game level.

Datsyuk has 17 goals in 49 games.

Rex has 11 goals in 49 games.

Datsyuk is the better scorer.

See how simple that is?

[eva unit zero 271]

Why would you average it out to 20 minutes per game? That's no different than doing it the way the original poster suggested. Again, IMO the only way to compare guys is on a per game level.

Datsyuk has 17 goals in 49 games.

Rex has 11 goals in 49 games.

Datsyuk is the better scorer.

See how simple that is?

I disagree with your assessment. Hudler is more likely to score a goal when he is on the ice; therefore Hudler is the better scorer.

It's the Joe Malone comparison. Joe Malone averaged 2.2 goals per game in the NHL's first season, and set a scoring record or 44 goals in 20 games that wouldn't be broken until Maurice Richard played 30 more games in a season. Is Joe Malone the greatest goal scorer ever? His per game stats seem to suggest it. He averaged better than a goal per game for his career. His peak was a level nobody else has even come close to approaching.

But Joe Malone played about 58 minutes per game, compared to the 20 minutes first line players see now; which would still project him to a 62 goal season playing 20 minutes for 82 games, but it doesn't make him out to be some kind of untouchable goal scoring deity anymore. Is Malone a better goal scorer than Mike Bossy, Brett Hull, Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux, Phil Esposito, or Steve Yzerman was in their primes? The per-minute stats would seem to suggest that it's a pretty close call, while the per-game stats suggest that Malone was individually a better goal scorer than most teams' entire first lines throughout NHL history.

[imisssergei 0]

I disagree with your assessment. Hudler is more likely to score a goal when he is on the ice; therefore Hudler is the better scorer.

It's the Joe Malone comparison. Joe Malone averaged 2.2 goals per game in the NHL's first season, and set a scoring record or 44 goals in 20 games that wouldn't be broken until Maurice Richard played 30 more games in a season. Is Joe Malone the greatest goal scorer ever? His per game stats seem to suggest it. He averaged better than a goal per game for his career. His peak was a level nobody else has even come close to approaching.

But Joe Malone played about 58 minutes per game, compared to the 20 minutes first line players see now; which would still project him to a 62 goal season playing 20 minutes for 82 games, but it doesn't make him out to be some kind of untouchable goal scoring deity anymore. Is Malone a better goal scorer than Mike Bossy, Brett Hull, Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux, Phil Esposito, or Steve Yzerman was in their primes? The per-minute stats would seem to suggest that it's a pretty close call, while the per-game stats suggest that Malone was individually a better goal scorer than most teams' entire first lines throughout NHL history.

You can twist the stats to show whatever you want. The bottom line is there is a reason why Datsyuk plays more than Rex.

If you really want to get a true statistical representation using your formula, you should also add in some sort of rating to represent the stark difference in competition that Rex and Pav are up against. Pav is seeing the oppositions best line night in and night out. Rex is seeing the teams second or third lines and d pairings each night.

Like I said, you can twist it whichever way you want to, but Pav is getting the ice time for a reason.

[Turkey 0]

I think it's pretty clear that these stats show us which players can make the most of limited ice-time. That doesn't make them better players overall (I don't think anyone is actually claiming Hudler is better than Pavel) it just means that they are making the most of what they are given. No stat proves beyond a shadow of a doubt that one player is better than any other.

These are just interesting stats that provide a slightly different perspective on the players. I'm not sure why they need to be a big huge debate topic.

[eva unit zero 271]

You can twist the stats to show whatever you want. The bottom line is there is a reason why Datsyuk plays more than Rex.

Yes, the fact that he is a better playmaker and defensive forward, better on faceoffs and is bigger and stronger all play a role in that. Hudler is a better goal scorer than Joe Thornton too; doesn't mean Hudler is a better player. Unless your only measure of player ability is goals scored, in which case total goals might be for you.

[Doggy 130]

Cool stats. Very interesting but IMO not that surprising.

This further illustrates that Lidstrom is the best there is.

[m96m 0]

Another interesting stat (this is a bit outdated as its from Dec 12, 2007):

One of the most notable things about Detroit's success this season has been how often the team has held opponents to two or fewer goals and how rarely opponents have held Detroit to two or fewer goals.

That cutoff is important because teams' winnings percentages when scoring one or two goals doesn't vary much. The mark of success is avoiding being in such situations.

Right now, the Red Wings have been held to two or fewer goals for in just 20 percent of their games ... a figure that resembles the high-scoring 80s. At the same time, Detroit is holding opponents to two or fewer goals in 67 percent of its games. With 20 such stingy game, the Red Wings have already topped the season total for both the 1988-89 and 1989-90 seasons.

Here's an historical look at the Red Wings and two or fewer goals ...

Two or fewer goals scored

Season... Frequency... Percentage of Games

1987-88... 16... 20.00

1988-89... 21... 26.25

1989-90... 24... 30.00

1990-91... 30... 37.50

1991-92... 20... 25.00

1992-93... 18... 21.43

1993-94... 18... 21.43

1994-95... 10... 20.83

1995-96... 17... 20.73

1996-97... 35... 42.68

1997-98... 31... 37.80

1998-99... 35... 42.68

1999-00... 27... 32.93

2000-01... 31... 37.80

2001-02... 27... 32.93

2002-03... 29... 35.37

2003-04... 30... 36.59

2005-06... 23... 28.05

2006-07... 32... 39.02

2007-08... 6... 20.00

Two or fewer goals allowed

Season... Frequency... Percentage of Games

1987-88... 28... 35.00

1988-89... 18... 22.50

1989-90... 18... 22.50

1990-91... 21... 26.25

1991-92... 24... 30.00

1992-93... 30... 35.71

1993-94... 28... 33.33

1994-95... 29... 60.42

1995-96... 56... 68.29

1996-97... 46... 56.10

1997-98... 43... 52.44

1998-99... 49... 59.76

1999-00... 42... 51.22

2000-01... 47... 57.32

2001-02... 48... 58.54

2002-03... 46... 56.10

2003-04... 55... 67.07

2005-06... 40... 48.78

2006-07... 43... 52.44

2007-08... 20... 66.67

This year's numbers most closely resemble those of the 62-win 1995-96 campaign.

Edited January 22, 2008 by m96m