Next Generation D

[mikl657 2]

So in the next few year(s) we won't have Nick, and when Rafalski's contract is up who knows if he will b resigned, anyone know realisticly which defensemen are going to be free agents that the wings have a chance with, because if Nick retires or maybe even takes another paycut, or Raf doesn't resign, thats just alot of money to spend on defense not mention if we can coax a top end player into taking a little discount like most do

Edited September 11, 2010 by mikl657

[Jusek 437]

Shea Weber would be awesome!

[McAwesome 754]

I hear Drew Doughty is an RFA at the end of this season, maybe we can sign him to a ridiculous offer sheet with the money we save on Lidstrom's contract

[zombi 43]

Mr. Doughty is going to be getting a big offer from LA, so I'm somewhat doubtful that he comes to play for us.

[Jesusberg 1,256]

In terms of some older(ish) players that I wouldn't mind the Red Wings taking a crack at:

Chara (33), Markov (31) and Kaberle (32)

The pipe-dream RFA's would be:

Weber (25), Doughty (20) or to a lesser extent Bogosian (20)

Of course, all of these options assume that Lids retires. I would love Chara, as I think he'd be the most complete all-around defensemen. That also means he'll command a high price, and Boston will be very reluctant to let him go. I could really see the Wings signing Kaberle in the off-season. Not that I really want them to, but it just seems like a likely move to me should Lids retire.

Getting the RFA's would be pretty difficult, I think, especially Doughty. With Nashville's self-imposed cap, perhaps Weber would be the best shot out of the RFA's. I threw Bogosian on there because he was at one time a decent offensive threat. He plays a solid, underrated physical game, and I think the offense would seep through should he be on a strong Detroit team.

Honestly, any of these guys would appease me if Lidstrom decides to hang 'em up.

[McAwesome 754]

Mr. Doughty is going to be getting a big offer from LA, so I'm somewhat doubtful that he comes to play for us.

I know, I was just being sarcastic. Doughty is likely to be the face of the Kings franchise for the next decade, and rightly so, but it is nice to dream.

Honestly, there are not many players that could come close to replacing Lidstrom, but I think Doughty could be that kind of player. Out of next year's UFAs, I would go after Chara is Nick doesn't come back, Markov would be an OK consolation prize, and I would not want Kaberle, especially at the price he is likely to demand.

[under_par_00 45]

Doughty would be great but likely the Kings are going to re-sign him for a long time.

I wouldn't mind Kaberle at $4 mil.

[Buppy 1,720]

In terms of some older(ish) players that I wouldn't mind the Red Wings taking a crack at:

Chara (33), Markov (31) and Kaberle (32)

The pipe-dream RFA's would be:

Weber (25), Doughty (20) or to a lesser extent Bogosian (20)

...

Joni Pitkanen is UFA next summer too. Younger, and I would say better overall, than Kaberle. Might cost a bit more, since there's (again) so few good UFA defensemen, especially young ones.

My top choices would be (assuming the RFAs are off the table):

Chara

Markov

Pitkanen

Erhoff

Kaberle

Jovanovski

McCabe

[CenterIce 83]

http://www.capgeek.com/free_agents.php?Year=2011&Team=All&Position=D&FAType=2

CapGeek.com is good for figuring out who is going to eligible for free agency and when.

[Guest Stolberg]

doubt we get any big name free agent

[Rivalred 630]

doubt we get any big name free agent

What makes you say that?

[Zetts 236]

http://www.capgeek.com/free_agents.php?Year=2011&Team=All&Position=D&FAType=2

CapGeek.com is good for figuring out who is going to eligible for free agency and when.

Aside from Markov and Chara, there isn't even anyone on that list that I really want at all. Neither of those two could even come close to Lidstrom's level either. Not that I actually expected anyone to be able to replace him, but that list is sad. We're in a lot of trouble if Lids chooses next season to retire. If we poach a good RFA, we'll be giving up a LOT of high-round draft picks.

We were able to find replacements for Yzerman and Shanahan (Z and Dats). How have we not drafted a #1 or 2 D in 20 years?

[WorkingOvertime 536]

Doughty would be great but likely the Kings are going to re-sign him for a long time.

I wouldn't mind Kaberle at $4 mil.

I think Kaberle would be a good choice for the Wings. While he is no where near the level Lids is/was, he is a decent top-pairing defenseman.

[Guest Stolberg]

What makes you say that?

i'm just saying things to say them

[egroen 384]

Aside from Markov and Chara, there isn't even anyone on that list that I really want at all. Neither of those two could even come close to Lidstrom's level either. Not that I actually expected anyone to be able to replace him, but that list is sad. We're in a lot of trouble if Lids chooses next season to retire. If we poach a good RFA, we'll be giving up a LOT of high-round draft picks.

We were able to find replacements for Yzerman and Shanahan (Z and Dats). How have we not drafted a #1 or 2 D in 20 years?

Kronwall is - if he could frickin' stay healthy.

Fischer would have been.

[Booster313 138]

Aside from Markov and Chara, there isn't even anyone on that list that I really want at all. Neither of those two could even come close to Lidstrom's level either. Not that I actually expected anyone to be able to replace him, but that list is sad. We're in a lot of trouble if Lids chooses next season to retire. If we poach a good RFA, we'll be giving up a LOT of high-round draft picks.

We were able to find replacements for Yzerman and Shanahan (Z and Dats). How have we not drafted a #1 or 2 D in 20 years?

Brendan Smith looks pretty promising.

[Lidstrom for Norris 0]

Shea Weber would be awesome!

Keep dreaming. As much as i would love to see him wearing the winged wheel, it will never happen. He's a pred until the day he hangs em up

[BamaWing 37]

If I could choose any D to take over for Lids it'd be Doughty but I just don't see it happening. LA should be shunned from the NHL if they let him go

[FunkedUp 29]

Chara has already stated that he wants to stay in Boston. The only way to get Doughty is to offer him 8m/year or so and give LA a kings ransom in terms of prospects/picks. It's not likely.

I feel that Holland will do something way out of the blue and surprise all of us.

[egroen 384]

Keep dreaming. As much as i would love to see him wearing the winged wheel, it will never happen. He's a pred until the day he hangs em up

You might be right - but I would not be shocked if he made a move at some point. The Preds simply start each and every season a step back from the contenders b/c the ownership will not spend to the cap. Loyalty only goes so far when your team has never made it past the first round.

[Echolalia 2,961]

Doughty is my favorite non-Wing player and I would go insane if we signed him. Unfortunately LA has treated him well and they're starting to become a contender with him as the centerpiece. It would be difficult to walk away from that.

[Z Winged Dangler 2,082]

Brendan Smith looks pretty promising.

agreed. so does adam almqvist. kindl may work out well. we'll still have kronner, stuart, ericsson...those 6 dmen could be pretty lethal at that point in time. trust the draft.

[robb himself 143]

I would lose my mind if we ended up with Doughty...

but that probably isnt in the cards but thats why we have

KINDL SMITH LASHOFF and ALMQVIST ready in a year or two to join up with Kronwall, Stuart, Ericsson...

we are sitting pretty either way in my opinion...

[egroen 384]

I would lose my mind if we ended up with Doughty...

but that probably isnt in the cards but thats why we have

KINDL SMITH LASHOFF and ALMQVIST ready in a year or two to join up with Kronwall, Stuart, Ericsson...

we are sitting pretty either way in my opinion...

Not bad at all - if we can't have one of the best Dmen ever, I'll be content with a bunch of good defensemen... sort of like Nashville has enjoyed.

That group probably needs another defensive guy as thus far most of the prospects above are a little lacking in their own end (though that could change).... Maybe Kolosov could be that guy but more likely Holland grabs another Stuart type in free agency to balance them out.

I am very pleased with how the Wings have drafted and developed defensemen in the past 5 years.

[TheOctopusKid 19]

As with any personnel forecast, there are three viable avenues in which to acquire a player: Prospect, Trade, and Acquisition.

Assuming that any team with a legitimate star defenseman would be unwilling to trade that player unless under considerable financial strain or front office regime change, it is doubtful the Red Wings could pursue this avenue. Additionally, even if a player were to be available, the price required would be massive (refer to the cost of Pronger, Phaneuf, and Kessel). Given the precedence of the Red Wings, that leaves to far more possible scenarios: development of a prospect and/or the acquisition of a free agent.

Prospect:

As we pour through major junior, European Elite leagues and college level statistics, the lure of premature excitement is undeniable. When you read promising reports from our scouting staff and see the score sheets chalk full of blistering numbers, expectations and the promise of future championships seems all but guaranteed. I am as guilty of this as anyone. However, I try very hard to temper my emotions after so many disappointments of unfulfilled expectations.

Certainly there are players who surprise and develop at an unexpected pace (Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Lidstrom, etc) and evolve as a premier player. However there is no definitive way to predict or anticipate greatness. At best, and I will preface this that Detroit does this as well as anyone, you cultivate particular characteristics (hockey sense, skating, passing) and hope that whatever deficiencies the prospect will be addressed or at the very least minimized through a structure and methodical development program.

In the case of our defensemen, Brendan Smith, Jakub Kindl and Adam Almqyist seem to carry the burden of seamlessly replacing Lidstrom and Rafalski and herald a new decade of Red Wings dominance. However there are concerns regarding all three of these players and their potential “upside” is directly proportional to their ability to accept criticism, adhere and engage to their development, and catch a couple of lucky breaks. To be honest, to become a superstar player at any professional level – luck is always in the equation on some level: a chance opportunity, a fortunate relationship with a mentor/coach/teammate, a positive situation that utilizes and maximizes your strengths and potential.

Hopefully one of these three prospects will develop into a fully fledged star. All three seems to possess the skill. And with the exception of Almqvist, the physical tools of a superb player. However, that does not mean that they will replace a generational talent like Lidstrom. Their projected growth is uncertain however, if two of the three were to develop into Top 4 defensemen – the Wings would have a very strong core for the foreseeable future. Given the Wings historical nature to bring the development of prospects at a very slow and controlled pace, Kindl will most likely not be a full time part of the Top 6 for two more seasons, and Smith will be at least a year in the AHL and if he proves ready, will move to the top 7 next season, and at best is a member of the Top 6 by his third professional year. This leaves a very open hole in their top defensive pairing. Which brings us to the final option for the Red Wings: Free Agency.

In the summer of 2011, the Detroit Red Wings first option to fill their top defense spot will be to resign Lidstrom. The Wings have shown incredible loyalty to long serving members of their team and that will go double for the Captain and face of their organization. Lidstrom provides Detroit the best possible option due to his overall importance to the organization, familiarity with the team, leadership and talent. However, if he decides to retire, that leaves them with a very large gap to fill with roughly $6-8M to replace him.

I am doubtful that the Red Wings would chase Shea Weber and Drew Doughty for a number of reasons. 1) Age – The Wings covet experience in their top defensive pairings. 2) Free Agent Status – Both Doughty and Weber are Restricted Free Agents which carry a different type of negotiation, and reward of compensatory draft picks. I am skeptical that the Kings would allow Doughty to sign an offer sheet without matching (except in the case of a ridiculous contract which the Wings would be unlikely to offer). Additionally, I doubt that Weber will stay with the Predators given their historical record of fiscal frugalness but would imagine he will receive and very large offer from another franchise. Again this seems unlikely from Detroit who seems to cap their offers $7M (the Lidstrom rule).

Given the required skill set that the Wings would need to replace (potential PP1 or PP2 quarterback, offensive contributor, quick outlet pass for transition game, and top line shutdown player) – it seems that the most likely candidate would be Andrei Markov.

Although not a marquee name like Lidstrom, Markov is a solid point producer from the blueline, efficient offensive player with a European sensibility in his style of play. He brings experience (which Ken Holland covets) and can effectively make all passes and shoot from the point. Additionally, he could bring a sound, all-round game to help alleviate the loss of Lidstrom. Still in his prime at 31, he could be obtained at less cost than Lidstrom current cap hit which would allow the Red Wings additional cap space to move prospects up into the roster and to negotiate future contracts.

There would be an outside chance that the Wings could pursue Jack Johnson of the Kings. The Kings would be a tough financial position to match a strong $4M a year offer from the Red Wings given their needs to resign key personnel (a la Doughty) and stay effectively under the cap. This seems improbable. But the potential of a Jack Johnson/Brian Rafalski combination might be intriguing. A lot of this would depend upon the development of Johnson over the course of the 2010 season and proving his is capable of top defensive assignments.

Possible Pairings

Markov/Rafalski

Kronwall/Stuart

Kindl/Ericsson/Smith

Following the 2011 season, Brian Rafalski’s contract of $6M will expire alongside Kronwall at $3M and Stuart at $3.75M. Again, I believe that the Wings first choice would be to resign all three for additional years. Kronwall becomes the highest priority of the three, and Rafalski would most likely receive a shortened contract length due to age. Stuart remains an interesting choice as he is again in the prime of his career (31) and would allow the Wings to maintain continuity for the next few seasons if he were to resign for similar numbers. I believe that this would be the Wings first choice.

If Kindl, Smith or Ericsson has not yet emerged as a consensus Top 4 pairing, look for the Wings to once again reach out for a veteran free agent to carry the position while the front office continues to groom a potential replacement. I believe that the Wings priorities would be first and foremost to resign Stuart or effectively promote a proven prospect to the 2nd pairing – otherwise they will turn to free agency.

A potential fit could be Barrett Jackman due to the directional change to youth in St Louis, overall skill set (physical shutdown defenseman) could replace Stuarts physical nature. Assuming that the Wings resign Rafalski to a two to three year contract around his current numbers, this would boast the following lines:

Markov/Rafalski

Kronwall/Jackman

Smith/Kindl/Ericsson