Ranking the Wings Forwards' Defensive Ability

[Icesurfer 75]

OK.... so the Wings are considered one of the best two-way teams in the league. So I decided to rank the forwards based only on their defensive abilities.

Some of the things to consider when looking at a forward’s defensive ability include: skating ability to get back on defense after playing offense, ability to recover from turning the puck over and getting it back, hitting, blocking shots, knocking players off the puck, causing a turnover by other means, takeaways, etc. Grant it that some of these are intangibles that can’t be measured in terms of statistics.

These are the rankings based on the stats that are available which include hits, blocked shots and takeaways. These numbers are the rankings from last year where the top player in that category is given 12 points and the bottom player gets one point. Double-weight was given for blocked shots and takeaways and single-weight was given for hits because most but not all hits are delivered when you are playing defense.

Pavel Datsyuk - 52

Johan Franzen - 45

Marian Hossa – 42

Valtteri Filppula - 41

Kris Draper - 38

Mikael Samuelsson – 33

Henrik Zetterberg – 30

Dan Cleary - 28

Kirk Maltby – 27

Tomas Kopecky – 26

Jiri Hudler – 17

Tomas Holmstrom - 11

I was surprised to see Zetterberg at only 30 and Cleary at only 28. Those two cleary (no pun intended) rank higher when you consider the intangibles. So I ranked them myself based on intangibles, double-weighted then value, and added them to the numbers above and this is what I got.

Pavel Datsyuk - 76

Marian Hossa – 62

Johan Franzen - 59

Kris Draper - 54

Valtteri Filppula - 53

Henrik Zetterberg – 52

Dan Cleary - 46

Mikael Samuelsson – 37

Kirk Maltby – 33

Tomas Kopecky – 28

Jiri Hudler – 27

Tomas Holmstrom - 19

I was surprised to see Filppula ranked higher than Z or Cleary. I would like to see how others rank the forwards’ defensive ability. Remember to try to avoid considering their offensive skills. Hossa’s numbers came from the Pitts stats so keep that in mind.

[Anomalously 0]

Is hits really indicative of value defensively? Lidstrom must be pretty bad defensively since he uses his stick instead of his body.

Using your stats I'm sure Lilja would be the best blueliner. Probably not the case, as there aren't any stats to measure stickhandling ability, efficiency, decision-making, etc.

[Icesurfer 75]

This post is about FORWARDS playing defensively. It is NOT about defensemen.

[Icesurfer 75]

When forwards are hitting they USUALLY, but not always, don't have the puck. ..... so they are "playing on defense". Occassionally a forward will hit when another forward has the puck in the offensive zone.....probably does not happen that often.

[Icesurfer 75]

Sort of reminds me of that NHL commercial....."We will call our offense our defense and our defense our offense"..........That will totally confuse the other team......LOL..... That guy is absolutely hilarious.

[Never_Retire_Steve 35]

Just ranking top to bottom:

Zetterberg

Pavel Datsyuk

Draper

Maltby

Hossa

Filppula

Cleary

Johan Franzen

Kopecky

Holmstrom

Hudler

Samuelsson

[Doggy 130]

Those are awful, awful rankings based on statistics that give no indication of a forwards' defensive ability.

[eva unit zero 271]

I applaud the effort to apply an objective statistical analysis to defense. As someone who appreciates objectivity and statistics, though, I also have a few comments.

That said, hits and takeaways, while both are viewed in a defensive light, cannot be used as you have used them here. Some players see most of their hits come in the offensive zone, and many players are credited with takeaways due to turnovers by the opposing team. Also, both statistics have been shown to be recorded inconsistently across the league, which means that they cannot be taken as an accurate representation of a player's ability.

Some suggestions for your rankings though, as far as improving your methods while using the same basic method. Instead of awarding the 'best' Wings forward a 12 and the worst a 1, regardless of the difference between them, you should compare them based on the difference between them. This can be done as follows;

For example, let's use takeaways as an example. We cannot simply use raw takeaway statistics either, as forwards played greatly inconsistent amounts of time. So takeaways per minute (and other similar stats) shall be used to rank the top 12 forwards in ice time from each team.

10- Very good, 5%, 18 forwards.

9- Good, 7.5%, 27 forwards.

8- Above average, 12.5%, 45 forwards

7- Average (high), 25%, 90 forwards

6- Average (low), 25%, 90 forwards

5- Below average, 12.5%, 45 forwards

4- Bad, 7.5%, 27 forwards

3- Very bad, 5%, 18 forwards

1/2- Minor League. There is nobody this bad in the NHL. Anyone in the NHL bad on D and good on O is at least 3 on raw skill.

If you rank based on the raw stats without adjusting for the time as I suggested, but use my ranking format, then the Wings' forwards receive the following scores based on last year's stats. Maximum possible score is 50.

Hits:

Kopecky, 8

Maltby, 7

Draper, 7

Franzen, 7

Cleary, 7

Hossa, 7

Samuelsson, 7

Holmstrom, 6

Datsyuk, 5

Filppula, 5

Zetterberg, 4

Hudler, 3

Takeaways (x2):

Datsyuk, 10

Hossa, 10

Zetterberg, 9

Franzen, 7

Filppula, 7

Cleary, 6

Hudler, 6

Samuelsson, 6

Draper, 6

Maltby, 5

Holmstrom, 3

Kopecky, 3

Blocked Shots (x2):

Datsyuk, 8

Filppula, 7

Draper, 7

Franzen, 7

Samuelsson, 6

Hossa, 6

Kopecky, 6

Maltby, 6

Zetterberg, 5

Cleary, 5

Hudler, 3

Holmstrom, 3

Total scores:

Datsyuk, 41

Hossa, 39

Franzen, 35

Draper, 33

Filppula, 33

Zetterberg, 32

Samuelsson, 31

Maltby, 29

Cleary, 29

Kopecky, 26

Hudler, 21

Holmstrom, 18

Of note: The bottom four players all had their overall ice time significantly limited in some way that would affect their total stats. Zetterberg also saw his ice time limited due to injury. So, while this does not give a complete picture of defensive ability, I do think that if you take the 'NHL rank' model I have put forth, but use a 'per minute' or 'per-game' model rather than a 'total numbers' model you would get a much more accurate reflection of defensive ability.

A reason to favor per-minute or per game:

Say Zetterberg plays five games and throws one hit, has two takeaways, and blocks two shots. In those five games his total score would be 9. Say he is injured in the fifth game by blocking the 2nd shot. Well, say Tomas Holmstrom plays 10 games, and throws two hits, blocks two shots, and has two takeaways. by your initial post, Holmstrom is the better defensive player by his score of 10; even though his average score per game is 1.00 to Zetterberg's 1.80.

[Doggy 130]

^^Who didn't see that comin'?

[Icesurfer 75]

That is a very good analysis..... I was looking for the per 20 minute analysis and could only find the leaders at this website and not the complete league stats which would be nice. This website also shows how players do when they play with another player.... which is where I found that Z and Hudler do not play well together.

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/200708/playertakeaway.php or click ADJUSTED PLAYER STATS

The biggest challenge is to try to measure the intangibles in terms of a number.....totally arbitrary...... which is why a player like Zetterberg may not be at the top of list but yet he wins the Conn Smythe.

Fun to play with numbers when there is no game....LOL.

[wingschamps 0]

^^Who didn't see that comin'?

[Icesurfer 75]

Datsyuk did win the Selke and he is on the top of the list by far...... even though people were split between Datsyuk and Z winning the award.

[eva unit zero 271]

Datsyuk did win the Selke and he is on the top of the list by far...... even though people were split between Datsyuk and Z winning the award.

Z should have won. Z is the first guy Babcock looks to on the PK, Z is the guy Babcock looks to when he needs to shut down an opposing offensive player. Datsyuk is really good at taking the puck off of an opposing player's stick, but Z is better defensively overall and he is the team's go-to forward when it comes to defensive situations.

Z should have won the Selke.

[Drake_Marcus 890]

I applaud the effort to apply an objective statistical analysis to defense. As someone who appreciates objectivity and statistics, though, I also have a few comments.

And that's why we love ya Eva

What's your profession? I'm assuming it's something within the sciences, math and or engineering...

Edited October 22, 2008 by Drake_Marcus

[toby91_ca 620]

I agree with the hit totals really not having much to do with good defensive play. Take Ovechkin for example, he's right up there with the leaders in terms of hits (or has historically been) and based on the few games I've seen him play so far this year, it seems his defensive game is getting less and less. Some will look at the scoresheet and see that he is getting lots of PK time and think that he is playing more defense now, but it's not the case, he's out there to provide an offensive threat on the PK, which appears to be working for them (not necessarily Ovechkin's personal stats). I think more teams should try to incorporate offense into their PK (it's certainly more exciting if nothing else), the Wings cetainly do it.

You'll rarely, rarely find Ovechkin across his own blue line, so hits should be taken with a grain of salt at a minimum, or ignored all together. That said, who am I kidding, you can't even look at stats at all to try and assess who's the best defensive player.

I agree with the thought that Z should have won the Selke (over Datsyuk at least). Datsyuk won because of his takeaway stat if you ask me. In terms of best 2-way players on the team, they are obviously Z, D and Hossa. In terms of best pure defensive player, well, that's a different story that I won't bother getting into right now and it's a debate that happens every year when discussing Selke (a league thing, not a Wings' thing)

[jawbreaker 0]

Z should have won. Z is the first guy Babcock looks to on the PK, Z is the guy Babcock looks to when he needs to shut down an opposing offensive player. Datsyuk is really good at taking the puck off of an opposing player's stick, but Z is better defensively overall and he is the team's go-to forward when it comes to defensive situations.

Z should have won the Selke.

Funny... You say all this like it's 100% for sure. Voters disagreed. Datsyuk won by such a big margin, that it's not even funny. And Zetterberg was third.

It's only your opinion dude, but you say it like Z got robbed, or something.

IMHO Datsyuk deserved that Selke, he was our best forward last year, and he is our best forward this year.

Zetterberg is probably better at playing defense in his own-end. Datsyuk plays it better in neutral zone, and offensive zone. I value neutral zone, adn offensive zone defense more, 'cause very often you have a great scoring chance after that.

[egroen 384]

Funny... You say all this like it's 100% for sure. Voters disagreed. Datsyuk won by such a big margin, that it's not even funny. And Zetterberg was third.

It's only your opinion dude, but you say it like Z got robbed, or something.

IMHO Datsyuk deserved that Selke, he was our best forward last year, and he is our best forward this year.

Zetterberg is probably better at playing defense in his own-end. Datsyuk plays it better in neutral zone, and offensive zone. I value neutral zone, adn offensive zone defense more, 'cause very often you have a great scoring chance after that.

I agree. Datysuk is not a traditional two-way forward like Zetterberg is, but I would argue Datsyuk is more effective when he does not have the puck. Zetterberg is great defensively; smart and rock solid positionally and can obviously kill a penalty by himself. But Datsyuk reminds me of a shark out there, and I would be scared s***less as an opposing forward if I know he is on the ice when I have the puck. Datsyuk's hits and steals are so unexpected, it makes me laugh out loud to watch the complete suprise and chaos they cause, and he does them not only every game, but almost every single shift he is on the ice and does not have the puck. I have never seen anything like that, ever.

Like you said, he is definitely more dangerous in the offensive and neutral zone, while Zetterberg is better in the defensive zone, but not by a ton. Datsyuk, when he is backchecking he rarely relents and will chase a forward well behind his own crease even and still come up with the puck.

That said, I think if you asked both players to play defense (like Fedorov has), Zetterberg would be the better defenseman.... but I still think that Selke ended up in the right hands.

[GMRwings1983 8,804]

And that's why we love ya Eva

What's your profession? I'm assuming it's something within the sciences, math and or engineering...

Eva is actually supercomputer HAL 9000.

[haroldsnepsts 4,826]

OK.... so the Wings are considered one of the best two-way teams in the league. So I decided to rank the forwards based only on their defensive abilities.

Some of the things to consider when looking at a forward’s defensive ability include: skating ability to get back on defense after playing offense, ability to recover from turning the puck over and getting it back, hitting, blocking shots, knocking players off the puck, causing a turnover by other means, takeaways, etc. Grant it that some of these are intangibles that can’t be measured in terms of statistics.

These are the rankings based on the stats that are available which include hits, blocked shots and takeaways. These numbers are the rankings from last year where the top player in that category is given 12 points and the bottom player gets one point. Double-weight was given for blocked shots and takeaways and single-weight was given for hits because most but not all hits are delivered when you are playing defense.

Pavel Datsyuk - 52

Johan Franzen - 45

Marian Hossa – 42

Valtteri Filppula - 41

Kris Draper - 38

Mikael Samuelsson – 33

Henrik Zetterberg – 30

Dan Cleary - 28

Kirk Maltby – 27

Tomas Kopecky – 26

Jiri Hudler – 17

Tomas Holmstrom - 11

I was surprised to see Zetterberg at only 30 and Cleary at only 28. Those two cleary (no pun intended) rank higher when you consider the intangibles. So I ranked them myself based on intangibles, double-weighted then value, and added them to the numbers above and this is what I got.

Pavel Datsyuk - 76

Marian Hossa – 62

Johan Franzen - 59

Kris Draper - 54

Valtteri Filppula - 53

Henrik Zetterberg – 52

Dan Cleary - 46

Mikael Samuelsson – 37

Kirk Maltby – 33

Tomas Kopecky – 28

Jiri Hudler – 27

Tomas Holmstrom - 19

I was surprised to see Filppula ranked higher than Z or Cleary. I would like to see how others rank the forwards’ defensive ability. Remember to try to avoid considering their offensive skills. Hossa’s numbers came from the Pitts stats so keep that in mind.

The fact that you have Zetterberg sixth on the list, below Franzen and Samuelsson, shows that there are some serious flaws in your premise and your analysis. Statistically recorded hits, blocked shots, and takeaways do not equal defensive ability.

Even when you include the "intangibles" it's still flawed. As you point out, Flip and Franzen are still way too high.

Edited October 22, 2008 by haroldsnepsts

[haroldsnepsts 4,826]

Z should have won. Z is the first guy Babcock looks to on the PK, Z is the guy Babcock looks to when he needs to shut down an opposing offensive player. Datsyuk is really good at taking the puck off of an opposing player's stick, but Z is better defensively overall and he is the team's go-to forward when it comes to defensive situations.

Z should have won the Selke.

I don't want to rehash this whole argument, but actually I think Madden should've won.

But I will agree that Zetterberg is overall a slightly better defensive forward than Datsyuk. Like with offense, Datsyuk's style is more flashy. Watching him constantly strip guys of the puck is almost comical. As others have pointed out, Datsyuk is great in the offensive and neutral zones, which is good, but to me is less important than when the puck is in your own end. And in the absolute clutch situations, like a 5-on3 in the Stanley Cup finals against Crosby, Babcock goes with Z.

Honestly I would guess that part of it is that Dats is better hitting on open ice and pickpocketing on open ice, but Zetterberg is better when it comes to battling down low in the defensive zone. And honestly I don't understand how people can give more important to the offensive and neutral zones when we're talking about who is better defensively, especially since a big part of being a great defensive forward is killing penalties, which is done mostly in your own zone.

The original post almost seemed an attempt to make Datsyuk far and away the best defensive player using bad statistical analysis. I'm guessing the debate will rage on in the thread.

Edited October 22, 2008 by haroldsnepsts

[YoungGuns1340 1]

Funny... You say all this like it's 100% for sure. Voters disagreed. Datsyuk won by such a big margin, that it's not even funny. And Zetterberg was third.

It's only your opinion dude, but you say it like Z got robbed, or something.

IMHO Datsyuk deserved that Selke, he was our best forward last year, and he is our best forward this year.

Zetterberg is probably better at playing defense in his own-end. Datsyuk plays it better in neutral zone, and offensive zone. I value neutral zone, adn offensive zone defense more, 'cause very often you have a great scoring chance after that.

Voters don't always get it right either. Datsyuk gets a lot of acclaim because he plays the flashiest form of defense in the league. There is not a player out there who gets noticed for his defensive dazzling like Datsyuk does. Sure he backchecks and can take the puck away, but hes not as good away from the puck like Zetterberg is in terms of positiong. People rarely take into account how your positioning ALONE is a key marker of great defense. Getting in lanes, taking away the man, limiting views, etc. You can be 12 feet from a guy and still be playing him as tight as anyone if you're smart on positioning.

The comparison between Datsyuk and Zetteberg to me equates to the same arguments about Crosby being better than Datsyuk or Zetterberg - basically because Crosby has the stats to back things up. But what Zetterberg and Datsyuk do all over the ice, and what Zetterberg does that goes unnoticed - the positioning, the intercepts, the use of the stick to deflect a pass - those are the things that go unnoticed. "Oh, thats just Zetterberg being Zetterberg" whereas with Datsyuk its "ZOMG did yoo see that takeaway??!?!?!? DEFENSIVE GENIUS." Its impossible to argue that people DON'T get caught up in Datsyuks flashiness and that clouds the argument incredibly. Its also why Zetterberg can get the short end of the stick on these boards, but why Babcock would look to him over Datsyuk in the most crucial of situations.

Edited October 22, 2008 by YoungGuns1340

[Guest GordieSid&Ted]

Z should have won. Z is the first guy Babcock looks to on the PK, Z is the guy Babcock looks to when he needs to shut down an opposing offensive player. Datsyuk is really good at taking the puck off of an opposing player's stick, but Z is better defensively overall and he is the team's go-to forward when it comes to defensive situations.

Z should have won the Selke.

No, he should not have. The people who decided who should have won it decided on Datsyuk. Gotta come to grips with that some day Eva.

By the way, It was Pavel Datsyuk that got us a victory in OT last game.

Sweet takeaway in the neutral zone knocking a pass out of mid air (at close range as well, even harder to do)

Making a nice self pass off the boards and then a nice inside out move on Wade Redden to set up the Hossa goal.

That was Pavel Datsyuk, not Zetterberg. And frankly, Pavel does that more than anybody in the league and more than anybody in the league his takeaways (ie his defensive prowess) leads to more chances for us to win.

He's the best defender on the team right now. He's probably the smartest, best overall forward in the league right now.

Thru 5 games he is averaging more penalty killing time than Zetterberg. And even though Z has only played 3 games, through those first 3 games Datsyuk was still averaging more ice time on the PK than Zetterberg.

And just to throw this out there, I don't put alot of stock into the PK time on ice b/c it isn't a true indicator of defensive superiority from one player to the next.

For instance, would you say Franzen, Drake, Maltby, Cleary and Draper are all better defensive players than Datsyuk?

Well, if you looked up last year's PK time per game they all averaged more than Datsyuk, and Dats still won the Selke.

You look at who is out on the PK and assume since Z is out there so much he's the best. I look at it and see Babcock resting his #1 offensive generator despite the fact that he could use him on the PK if he desired.

IMO, coming off of a PK, who would you rather have more rested? Dats or Z? Who is going to generate them most offense? Dats is your man. Which is why Z gets more of the PK time. That's my opinion of course.

By the way Cleary and Draper both averaged more PK time than Zetterberg per game last year. Are they better defensively than Z? I would say hell no. But they get more time b/c just as the argument that Dats is more valuable in another role applies to Zetterberg. Zetterberg is much more valuable in other roles than Draper or Cleary.

[Opie 308]

[/b]

No, he should not have. The people who decided who should have won it decided on Datsyuk. Gotta come to grips with that some day Eva.

By the way, It was Pavel Datsyuk that got us a victory in OT last game.

Sweet takeaway in the neutral zone knocking a pass out of mid air (at close range as well, even harder to do)

Making a nice self pass off the boards and then a nice inside out move on Wade Redden to set up the Hossa goal.

That was Pavel Datsyuk, not Zetterberg. And frankly, Pavel does that more than anybody in the league and more than anybody in the league his takeaways (ie his defensive prowess) leads to more chances for us to win.

He's the best defender on the team right now. He's probably the smartest, best overall forward in the league right now.

Thru 5 games he is averaging more penalty killing time than Zetterberg. And even though Z has only played 3 games, through those first 3 games Datsyuk was still averaging more ice time on the PK than Zetterberg.

And just to throw this out there, I don't put alot of stock into the PK time on ice b/c it isn't a true indicator of defensive superiority from one player to the next.

For instance, would you say Franzen, Drake, Maltby, Cleary and Draper are all better defensive players than Datsyuk?

Well, if you looked up last year's PK time per game they all averaged more than Datsyuk, and Dats still won the Selke.

You look at who is out on the PK and assume since Z is out there so much he's the best. I look at it and see Babcock resting his #1 offensive generator despite the fact that he could use him on the PK if he desired.

IMO, coming off of a PK, who would you rather have more rested? Dats or Z? Who is going to generate them most offense? Dats is your man. Which is why Z gets more of the PK time. That's my opinion of course.

By the way Cleary and Draper both averaged more PK time than Zetterberg per game last year. Are they better defensively than Z? I would say hell no. But they get more time b/c just as the argument that Dats is more valuable in another role applies to Zetterberg. Zetterberg is much more valuable in other roles than Draper or Cleary.

Very well put and well worded!!!

[Guest GordieSid&Ted]

Voters don't always get it right either. Datsyuk gets a lot of acclaim because he plays the flashiest form of defense in the league. There is not a player out there who gets noticed for his defensive dazzling like Datsyuk does. Sure he backchecks and can take the puck away, but hes not as good away from the puck like Zetterberg is in terms of positiong. People rarely take into account how your positioning ALONE is a key marker of great defense. Getting in lanes, taking away the man, limiting views, etc. You can be 12 feet from a guy and still be playing him as tight as anyone if you're smart on positioning.

The comparison between Datsyuk and Zetteberg to me equates to the same arguments about Crosby being better than Datsyuk or Zetterberg - basically because Crosby has the stats to back things up. But what Zetterberg and Datsyuk do all over the ice, and what Zetterberg does that goes unnoticed - the positioning, the intercepts, the use of the stick to deflect a pass - those are the things that go unnoticed. "Oh, thats just Zetterberg being Zetterberg" whereas with Datsyuk its "ZOMG did yoo see that takeaway??!?!?!? DEFENSIVE GENIUS." Its impossible to argue that people DON'T get caught up in Datsyuks flashiness and that clouds the argument incredibly. Its also why Zetterberg can get the short end of the stick on these boards, but why Babcock would look to him over Datsyuk in the most crucial of situations.

Umm....I'd like to know how you know Z is better positionally?

If you lead the league in takeaways are you not in the best position of any defending player on the ice?

If you lead the Wings in blocked shots are you not the best forward on the team at getting in the way and being in the right place positionally.

Ever notice how many pucks Datsyuk knocks down in the neutral zone? Like the one he did against the Rangers in OT that won us the game? He knocks more pucks out of the air than any Wings forward. Is that not being in the right place positionally? Is that not knowing how to guard the passing lanes?

It's ridiculous to make a statement that Datsyuk isn't as good positionally since all he does is lead the Wings forwards in all departments that have something to do with being good positionally.

Oh yeah, and he comes off the walls with the puck more than anybody i've ever seen on any team. He snaps the puck away from the walls and into a position to head up ice with it or dish it off almost like its superglued to his stick. And down low he makes ridiculous passes to his defenseman to open up space for them.

There's lots of things NHL players can't do. There's not many things Pavel Datsyuk can't do. Hell, ask Gary Roberts and he'll tell you Dats will even punch you in the face if need be.

He's the most complete forward in the game, and likely the smartest. We look at his flashiness and takeways and we take it for granted. Just like we take for granted Nick's poke checking ability. It's so much better than anybody else and we see it so often we don't appreciate it enough.

[superstarsingh 23]

To place Zetterberg that low on a list based on defensive ability is flat out ignorant. Those stats are heavily flawed. You must not watch many Red Wings games if you hold Zetts in such a low regard.

Datsyuk hits more and takes the puck away from opponents a lot more. This is key in the neutral zone and in the offensive end. Zetterberg digs pucks out of corners in his own end and he does the same in the offensive end. These two are two of the best defensive forwards around but their defensive games differ greatly.

As many have said, Zetts is the go to defensive forward. He is a better penalty killer on the notion that he can dig pucks out of corners and he always finds a way to have his stick in passing lanes. Or perhaps its that he locks up the other team's best player, not only on the penalty kill, but in general.

Again, while I respect both of these guys and their well rounded game, I am not entirely sure if one can be better than the other in regards to defensive hockey because they play a different defensive style. But either way, using such facts is not the way to go about deciphering such matter. Watch every game and watch what each of those guys do in all three zones and you would be able to come to a better conclusion.