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sureWhyNot

Scary Goaltending Stat

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Over the past 14 years no team has managed to win the Stanley Cup who had a regular season starting goaltender with a 3.0 GAA or higher (THE FOLLOWING IS THE GAA OF STANLEY CUP WINNING GOALTENDERS IN THE REGULAR SEASON OF THE YEAR THEY WON THE CUP):

07-08: Detroit Red Wings: Ozzie and Dom pretty much split the regular season with Osgood getting 43 starts and holding a 2.09 GAA and Hasek starting 41 games with a 2.14 GAA

06-07: Anaheim Ducks: Jean-Sebastien Giguere was both the playoff go to guy as well as the regular season starter. He had a GAA in the regular season of 2.26

05-06: Carolina Hurricanes: Cam Ward, who won the Con Smythe for the Hurricanes was incidentally not the starter throughout the regular season. In fact, the Canes starting goaltender was Martin Gerber who in 60 games managed a 2.78 GAA

03-04: Tampa Bay Lightning: Nikolai Khabibulin was the regular season starter, and in 55 games held a 2.33 GAA.

02-03: New Jersey Devils: Marty Brodeur was the regular season starter, and in 73 games he held a 2.02 GAA.

01-02: Detroit Red Wings: Hasek was our regular season starter, getting the nod for 65 games in which he held a 2.17 GAA

00-01: Colorado Avalanche: Roy was there number one in the regular season starting 62 games and holding down a 2.21 GAA.

99-00: New Jersey Devils: Again, Brodeur was their reg. season starter, and in 72 regular season starts he held a 2.24 GAA.

98-99: Dallas Stars: The Stars number one goaltender in the regular season was Eddie Belfour, and in his 62 starts Belfour had a 1.99 GAA.

97-98: Detroit Red Wings: Our number one goaltender this year was none other then Chris Osgood. In Ozzie's 64 regular season starts he held a 2.24 GAA.

96-97: Detroit Red Wings: This year the Wings kinda divied up the regular season starting duties between Ozzie and Vernon, with Ozzie starting 47 regular season games and holding a 2.30 GAA and Vernon starting 33 regular season contests and held down a 2.43 GAA.

95-96: Colorado Avalance: The Av's split the regular season starts between Patrick Roy, who saw 39 regular season starts and held down a 2.68 GAA and Stephane Fiset who started 37 games and held down a regular season GAA of 2.93.

94-95: New Jersey Devils: Brodeur was again the regular season starter and had a 2.45 GAA.

93-94: New York Rangers: Mike Richter was the regular season starter with 68 starts, and managed to hold down a 2.57 GAA.

1992-93 was the last time a team whose regular season starter had a GAA above 3.0. When the Montreal Canadians very own Patrick Roy was the regular season starter, getting the nod in 62 regular season games, he ended up with a 3.20 GAA.

Now seeing as though Ozzie is our number one -- this is indicated by both his salary, spot in the depth chart and countless statements made by Babcock, Holland, etc. I become frightened. Why do I become frightened you ask? Chris Osgood's GAA is currently 3.30 -- EEK!

I suggest you watch this to settle the nerves -- it works for me!

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Give me that fish!

I hear ya on that one for sure. In fact, I attempted to stuff the ballot box with "Gimme that Fish" votes for the April in the D song contest. Unfortunately I didn't prevail.

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I know Osgood won the Cup last year, but this year I see it as foolish to not start Conklin when the playoffs start (unless Ozzie somehow starts playing out of his mind for the rest of the season).

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Over the past 14 years no team has managed to win the Stanley Cup who had a regular season starting goaltender with a 3.0 GAA or higher (THE FOLLOWING IS THE GAA OF STANLEY CUP WINNING GOALTENDERS IN THE REGULAR SEASON OF THE YEAR THEY WON THE CUP):

07-08: Detroit Red Wings: Ozzie and Dom pretty much split the regular season with Osgood getting 43 starts and holding a 2.09 GAA and Hasek starting 41 games with a 2.14 GAA

Interesting how despite being injured for a part of the season, our goaltenders started 84 games? :ph34r:

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luckily for us there are first for everything!

just like before last year lids was the first Swede captain to ever lift the cup!

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No worries. Osgood won't be starting. Babcock and Holland will not piss away a legit chance at a repeat.

Truth or not, *if this is the case,* then I'd like to see Conklin get the nod more frequently down the stretch so he's prepared. We're certainly at the point in the season where Oz needs to "s*** or get off the pot".

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I agree with clutchngrab, Conk will be the starter. The organization will give themselves the best chance at a 5th Championship in 12 years.

Maybe it's just me, but I don't think I'll be too disappointed or bummed out if we don't repeat. The last team to advance past the first round after winning the Stanley Cup was the 2002 Colorado Avs. We've had two long playoff runs, so I think the thing that'll be against us in the playoffs is fatigue more so than Goaltending. Odds are against us, but we'll see.

Also, if we don't repeat, it's not like it'll be our last chance at a Championship. We're loaded for 10 years.

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Truth or not, *if this is the case,* then I'd like to see Conklin get the nod more frequently down the stretch so he's prepared. We're certainly at the point in the season where Oz needs to "s*** or get off the pot".

:thumbup: this is exactly what i think, esp the bolded part. it's just really hard to argue that conks is not the better goalie right now.

but, yeah, if ozzie does start, i'll just argue that the league is due for a 3.00+ GAA goalie to win the cup. :)

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I've always looked at GAA as being more of a team statistic. To me, all those numbers say is that the winner is always a good defensive team with a solid (but not necessarily great) goaltender in net.

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so what your saying is that it's ususual but that it has happened before.

Here's one for you, when was the last time that a team finished in the top 3 in the league with a starting goalie that had a GAA of more than 3? And this is guaranteed to happen this year.

These kind of stats are silly.

How bout this one..no team has repeated as Stanley Cup Champions in 10 years.

No team had won the cup EVER with a European born captain...until last year.

No team has EVER won the Stanley Cup after being eliminated in the 2nd round the three previous years...

That one's my favorite...

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There's a first for everything right? Even with that being said Ozzie doesn't have to prove anything to anyone anymore. It would be fantastic if he played his game and took us to the Cup again. I'm all for that of course! But if he doesn't, Conklin will have to. The Wings winning is my only concern. Yes I'd rather it be Ozzie in net and that's my honest opinion, but whatever is best for the Wings is best for me.

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I had a double filet-o-fish not more than two hours ago. Mickey D's sucks for that commercial.

I still do not understand why people do not get why SV% is a much more telling statistic of the goaltenders' performance than GAA. GAA is more about the style of the team, or actually anymore it's more about the defensive ability of the team said goalie plays for.

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I had a double filet-o-fish not more than two hours ago. Mickey D's sucks for that commercial.

I still do not understand why people do not get why SV% is a much more telling statistic of the goaltenders' performance than GAA. GAA is more about the style of the team, or actually anymore it's more about the defensive ability of the team said goalie plays for.

His SV% is even more atrocious.

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Yes I was not trying to make Oz look any better, at times he's been as awful as I've ever seen him this season. I like the guy actually but he does piss me off/disappoint often enough.

According to the stats shown it doesn't look very likely that the Wings will win the cup this year, but these stats don't tell the whole story, and don't even tell it well. The last goalie to have over 3 GAA was patty waaah, and even though I hate the guys guts he was one of the best ever and I think possibly the SV% would show that a little more than his GAA.

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Yes I was not trying to make Oz look any better, at times he's been as awful as I've ever seen him this season. I like the guy actually but he does piss me off/disappoint often enough.

According to the stats shown it doesn't look very likely that the Wings will win the cup this year, but these stats don't tell the whole story, and don't even tell it well. The last goalie to have over 3 GAA was patty waaah, and even though I hate the guys guts he was one of the best ever and I think possibly the SV% would show that a little more than his GAA.

But offhand, I don't think the stat of last goaltender to win the Cup with a regular season save percentage below .900 was as long ago as the last Cup winning goalie with a GAA over 3.00 during the regular season. Roy's worst season was 3.20 and .894 in 1992-93, btw. I think that there was probably someone more recent who started for the Cup winning team and didn't clear .900 in the regular season. So despite Ozzie's save % being more atrocious, it's actually probably less scary in terms of this thread and the idea of a goalie's stats being under or over a certain number locking you out of contention.

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But offhand, I don't think the stat of last goaltender to win the Cup with a regular season save percentage below .900 was as long ago as the last Cup winning goalie with a GAA over 3.00 during the regular season. Roy's worst season was 3.20 and .894 in 1992-93, btw. I think that there was probably someone more recent who started for the Cup winning team and didn't clear .900 in the regular season. So despite Ozzie's save % being more atrocious, it's actually probably less scary in terms of this thread and the idea of a goalie's stats being under or over a certain number locking you out of contention.

mos def.

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But offhand, I don't think the stat of last goaltender to win the Cup with a regular season save percentage below .900 was as long ago as the last Cup winning goalie with a GAA over 3.00 during the regular season. Roy's worst season was 3.20 and .894 in 1992-93, btw. I think that there was probably someone more recent who started for the Cup winning team and didn't clear .900 in the regular season. So despite Ozzie's save % being more atrocious, it's actually probably less scary in terms of this thread and the idea of a goalie's stats being under or over a certain number locking you out of contention.

It be interesting to run it at Osgood's current save % of .878 and see when the last time was that a team won a cup when they had a starter with that percentage. Not that any of these statistical trends really matter, but it might produce an interesting answer.

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so what your saying is that it's ususual but that it has happened before.

Here's one for you, when was the last time that a team finished in the top 3 in the league with a starting goalie that had a GAA of more than 3? And this is guaranteed to happen this year.

These kind of stats are silly.

How bout this one..no team has repeated as Stanley Cup Champions in 10 years.

No team had won the cup EVER with a European born captain...until last year.

No team has EVER won the Stanley Cup after being eliminated in the 2nd round the three previous years...

That one's my favorite...

Wow. I guess since you didn't pick up on the theme I'll spell it out for ya -- teams with s***ty goalies don't win Stanley Cups. That clear enough for you? The "funny" thing is that while I was in no way saying this is a unbreakable trend, you decide to rifle back -- in a poor attempt to appear witty -- a bunch of "stats" that in all actuality aren't stats at all, rather factual statements. Comparing the past Stanley Cup winning goalies GAA is a statistic, "no team winning the cup wit ha European Captain until last year" is a FACT. But keep douching it up, you seem like you are pretty good at it.

I had a double filet-o-fish not more than two hours ago. Mickey D's sucks for that commercial.

I still do not understand why people do not get why SV% is a much more telling statistic of the goaltenders' performance than GAA. GAA is more about the style of the team, or actually anymore it's more about the defensive ability of the team said goalie plays for.

Yes and no. I think you are right in regards to a really solid goaltender who is on a horrible team. If that's the case, and the goalie is seeing 40-45 shots a night then a 3.20 GAA (or whatever it is) certainly isn't telling in regards to the goalies ability -- this is when SV% becomes the more important teller of the two.

But I think GAA is somewhat (but by no means the definitive) reflective of a goaltender when playing on a decent/good or in this case amazing team, where the number of shots he see's on average per night is on par, if not lower then the league average.

This. The OP was sugar coating the statistical abyss that is Osgood this season.

Well... Ya, you are right. I didn't want to come out and say it but you are totally right actually. But for s***s and giggles why don't we go ahead and look at the regular season starters for the past couple Stanley Cup champs, and their SV% throughout the regular season:

2008: Detroit's Hasek and Osgood pretty much split games in the regular season. Osgood who started 43 games had a SV% of .914 and Hasek who started 41 games had a regular season SV% of .902 Ozzie did however have a jaw dropping .930 SV% and a 1.55 GAA in the post season -- Good god did he come to play in last years postseason. While (and this could serve as a measuring stick as too what we can expect if Ozzie doesn't get back to normal) Hasek had a playoff (albeit a brief playoff run) SV% of .888 and a GAA of 2.91.

2007: Anaheim's Jean-Sebastien Giguere - PLAYOFFS .922; SEASON .918

*2006: Carolina Hurricane's Cam Ward - PLAYOFFS .920; SEASON .882

-----> This one gets an asterisk b/c Ward was not the Canes starter throughout the reg. season. In fact he was far from the starter -- Ward started a measly 26 games for the Canes, while Martin Gerber and his 60 starts garnished a .906 SV%. So, if we were to stick to the original premise, we would be using Gerber's numbers since he was the Hurricane's starting goaltender in the regular season.

2004: Tampa Bay Lightning's Nikolai Khabibulin - PLAYOFFS .933; SEASON .910

2003: New Jersey Devils Martin Brodeur - PLAYOFFS .934; SEASON .914

2002: Detroit's Dominik Hasek - PLAYOFFS .920; SEASON .915

2001: Colorado's Patrick WAAAAAA - PLAYOFFS .934; PLAYOFFS .913

2000: New Jersey Devils Martin Brodeur - PLAYOFFS .927; SEASON .910

1999: Dallas Stars Eddie Belofour - PLAYOFFS .930; SEASON .915

1998: Detroit's Chris Osgood - PLAYOFFS .918; SEASON .913

*1997: Detroit's Mike Vernon - PLAYOFFS .927; SEASON .899

-----> This one gets an asterisk because Vernon was not the starter -- while I guess you could say they split time, Chris Osgood actually started 47 regular season games to Mike Vernon's 32 (Hodson with 1). Ozzie's SV% in the regular season in '97 was .910.

1996: Colorado's Patrick WAAAAAAA - PLAYOFFS .921; PLAYOFFS .909

1995: New Jersey Devils Martin Brodeur - PLAYOFFS .927; SEASON .911

1994: New York Ranger's Mike Richter - PLAYOFFS .921; SEASON .910

1993: Montreal's Patrick WAAAAAAAA - PLAYOFFS .929; SEASON .894

Then again when the Penguins won the Cup back to back in 1991 and 1992 -- regular season starter Tom Barrasso had a SV% under .900 both seasons. In '92 his reg. season SV% was .885 and in '91 his reg. season was .896. Both years however he got that SV% above .900 in the playoffs -- in '92 his playoffs SV% was .907, and in '91 his playoffs SV% was .919.

It is interesting though to look back at Osgood specifically and his past GAA and SV% numbers for the regular season. Only once prior to this year has Osgood finished the season with over a 3.00 GAA. That came in 2002-03 with the Blues - and get this, Ozzie only played 9 games. He had spent the majority of the season (while 38 starts worth of season) with the Islanders, when he left he had a GAA of 2.92.

What does all this mean? Not much, I just figured this could serve as some food for thought, no more no less. I do not think we are doomed, I actually am confident going into the final stretch. Maybe not as confident as years back, but definitely feeling good about it. I do think Ozzie can get it together, and for us to make another run he HAS to get it together -- I think that is at least something everyone around here can agree on.

For reference purposes Chris Osgood currently is sitting on a 3.30 GAA and a SV% of .878. While Conklin is looking at a 2.38 GAA and a SV% of .914.

Now for the entertainment portion of the post I present the following:

Edited by sureWhyNot

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