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ChristopherReevesLegs

Grade The Offseason 2019: Yzerman's Opening Moves

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4 hours ago, nyqvististhefuture said:

I love Stevie and he’s my fav player all time but gave him a C , now part of me thinks he’s purposefully trying to keep us bad to land a top 3 pick so I’m kind of ok with it but there’s stuff I wish he’d have done differently .... Patrick marleau , look I’m sorry but how does a well known cash strapped Carolina owner end up getting the first from the leafs ? Like wtf we had all this cap space and didn’t end up getting any extra assets ? Carolina gave up a 6th to land the first round pick , so offer a 4th instead ? Just get that first rounder in a crazy deep draft , that seriously pissed me off

 

the 2019 draft , I was pissed on draft weekend ... not as much now but still bothered by it but I think he did what ken Holland ignored for years and tried to desperalty fix our d problem in one single draft . It’s been years we been lacking dmen and yes I’ll say it again imo I think we should of landed brannstrom over Rasmussen, I think if we had him maybe we’d have still have seider at 6 but I think we’d have gambled to land tuomisto in the 50s , point is not having any real top end dmen  in our pipeline for years forced Stevie 

everyone knows how much of a fan of podkolzin I was and still am and wished we took him but was also pushing hard to make s deal to land seider, really wanted fagemo and bothered we passed on puistola and a few other guys , when I’m looking at the draft I’m always looking to go for a homerun pick and go for guys with high end upside . I mean maybe Albert johansen makes it And is a solid what #5 dman who doesn’t put up much points? But I’d have gambled it and taken someone else .

Was pissed with grewe cause I saw puistola available still but I think he’ll be a player and a pest along bertuzzi so I’m ok with him. Anyways I’m satisfied enough with our prospect pool and I have no doubt after the 2019 draft we won’t be bulls***ting the fans in 2020 when we say we truly took the best player available in the draft 

anyways yzermans been there a short term so can’t complain too much yet , like the kaski signing and again I think he’s purposefully trying to tank but I wish he’d be able to land us marleau and add some guys on July 1 with the sole intention of trying to land back top picks for next draft and sadly right now mike green and Howard our only options which is beyond dissapointing 

I mean your asking TORONTO to gift DETROIT on the Marleau deal. I don't expect divisional adversaries to make those kind of deals. Especially between long standing rivals like TOR and DET.

Drafts are dice rolls. It's take a half decade before we can have any sort of meaningful discussion about it. But I like our biggest reach in Seider... which is a pretty uplifting thought when you think about it. 

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7 hours ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

I mean your asking TORONTO to gift DETROIT on the Marleau deal. I don't expect divisional adversaries to make those kind of deals. Especially between long standing rivals like TOR and DET.

Drafts are dice rolls. It's take a half decade before we can have any sort of meaningful discussion about it. But I like our biggest reach in Seider... which is a pretty uplifting thought when you think about it. 

Well I don’t know if it’s a gift if we’re offering the better deal ? ... they got a 6th from the canes , I’d we were willing to say you know what take our 3rd rounder you think Dubas wouldn’t do it?

and at the moment there isn’t much of a rival going on and like you said drafts are a roll of the dice so even if we get the 27th pick let’s say it doesn’t mean we can land a top guy so I think they’d have made the deal with us 

Yes I agree it takes years before we can see what happens with any teams picks but for me personally I like to swing for the fences , sure someone like grewe will probably be an Nhler and we’ll probably like him a lot but I like to go for the first line guys and go for it

I like seider as well I’d just have preferred to have moved AA in a deal to get him and have podkolzin in a dream scenario , I think he’ll be a player for us but at 6 we need him to be really good not just a decent #3-4 who can put up 25 pts cause in my eyes I can already see podkolzin and Petersson tearing up the league together on the same line 

but anyways as you said it’s all a waiting game now  

 

 

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If, on the day Yzerman was hired, someone had predicted this off-season exactly, everyone would have said there was no chance of any of it and the person would have been labeled a troll. Yet 40% gave him an A or a B.

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On 8/17/2019 at 6:52 AM, nyqvististhefuture said:

Well I don’t know if it’s a gift if we’re offering the better deal ? ... they got a 6th from the canes , I’d we were willing to say you know what take our 3rd rounder you think Dubas wouldn’t do it?

and at the moment there isn’t much of a rival going on and like you said drafts are a roll of the dice so even if we get the 27th pick let’s say it doesn’t mean we can land a top guy so I think they’d have made the deal with us 

Yes I agree it takes years before we can see what happens with any teams picks but for me personally I like to swing for the fences , sure someone like grewe will probably be an Nhler and we’ll probably like him a lot but I like to go for the first line guys and go for it

I like seider as well I’d just have preferred to have moved AA in a deal to get him and have podkolzin in a dream scenario , I think he’ll be a player for us but at 6 we need him to be really good not just a decent #3-4 who can put up 25 pts cause in my eyes I can already see podkolzin and Petersson tearing up the league together on the same line 

but anyways as you said it’s all a waiting game now  

 

 

I think you're losing sight on what the motivation of the trade was. For the Leafs, It was dumping cap. The price for doing that was giving away their first, not obtaining a throw in 6th. I'd much rather send that 1st to Carolina than Detroit in Dubas's shoes. The throw in pick is an after thought formality.

Rivalry aside. You don't as a general rule wanna strengthen your divisional adversaries. Giving a 1st round pick to a divisional adversary in exchange for cap space. In fact I think it would have been much smarter for Dubas to send his 1st West, but maybe he didn't have a dance partner IDK.

On 8/17/2019 at 2:51 PM, Buppy said:

If, on the day Yzerman was hired, someone had predicted this off-season exactly, everyone would have said there was no chance of any of it and the person would have been labeled a troll. Yet 40% gave him an A or a B.

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5 hours ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

I think you're losing sight on what the motivation of the trade was. For the Leafs, It was dumping cap. The price for doing that was giving away their first, not obtaining a throw in 6th. I'd much rather send that 1st to Carolina than Detroit in Dubas's shoes. The throw in pick is an after thought formality.

Rivalry aside. You don't as a general rule wanna strengthen your divisional adversaries. Giving a 1st round pick to a divisional adversary in exchange for cap space. In fact I think it would have been much smarter for Dubas to send his 1st West, but maybe he didn't have a dance partner IDK.

 

I’m well aware it was motivated by getting rid of the cap hit which is why they gave up a hefty price in that first rounder but they got back a 6th from Carolina to do so and I’m saying If we counter offered them with a 3rd pick instead I’m sure they’d have taken it regardless of us being in the same division . You have to take the best offer that’s  best for your team at the end of the day, lets say the 63rd pick or 159? It shouldn’t even be something to think about 

think tampa Thought we can’t trade Erne to Detroit? What if he pops 30 and smashes stamkos into the boards and injures him? There’s no certainty that say 27th pick would ever play and besides the leafs don’t have to worry about the wings for another 2-3 years .

Anyways it’s done now and can’t be undone but I think we blew an opportunity especially with all this cap space and we didn’t get any callahan’s Or anything to land us assets but instead filppula and nemeth. It’s been a dud of a summer when you consider the moves we could have done

 

Edited by nyqvististhefuture

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5 hours ago, nyqvististhefuture said:

I’m well aware it was motivated by getting rid of the cap hit which is why they gave up a hefty price in that first rounder but they got back a 6th from Carolina to do so and I’m saying If we counter offered them with a 3rd pick instead I’m sure they’d have taken it regardless of us being in the same division . You have to take the best offer that’s  best for your team at the end of the day, lets say the 63rd pick or 159? It shouldn’t even be something to think about

Not sure if you're being naive or disingenuous. Things aren't remotely that cut and dry. Remember when Holland used Yzerman to acquire Quincey? Sakic was willing to trade with Tampa for a much lesser return, and unwilling to trade with Detroit for a much higher return... and the rivalry between COL and DET had been dead by most fan standards for some years. That's how these things go. Sakic was reportedly pissed that Yzerman had essentially played him after the fact.  

5 hours ago, nyqvististhefuture said:

think tampa Thought we can’t trade Erne to Detroit? What if he pops 30 and smashes stamkos into the boards and injures him? There’s no certainty that say 27th pick would ever play and besides the leafs don’t have to worry about the wings for another 2-3 years

Totally different scenario. Brisebois and Yzerman are reportedly very close and very friendly. Yzerman likes Erne, and Brisebois has no room to sign him. The trade kinda makes sense. Erne also looks like a career 3rd liner, not a possible star player.

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2 hours ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

Not sure if you're being naive or disingenuous. Things aren't remotely that cut and dry. Remember when Holland used Yzerman to acquire Quincey? Sakic was willing to trade with Tampa for a much lesser return, and unwilling to trade with Detroit for a much higher return... and the rivalry between COL and DET had been dead by most fan standards for some years. That's how these things go. Sakic was reportedly pissed that Yzerman had essentially played him after the fact.  

Totally different scenario. Brisebois and Yzerman are reportedly very close and very friendly. Yzerman likes Erne, and Brisebois has no room to sign him. The trade kinda makes sense. Erne also looks like a career 3rd liner, not a possible star player.

I forgot the wings were still in the west when the deal happened, either way it seems like everyone but ken Holland was aware what a horrible trade that was when the deal occurred. We will never know either way 100% unless yzerman/Dubas says a better deal was on the table than the Carolina one but I’ll always believe till that day comes had we offered say a 3rd rd pick instead of the canes 6th we’d have won the marleau deal.

Again a 26-31 pick is hardly a lock at being an nhl player and when all is said is done picking 100 spots earlier on the  leafs end is a no brainer. I think some teams are realizing limiting themselves to trade with other divisions are doing themselves a disservice by knocking out 25% of trading partners right off the bat 

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51 minutes ago, nyqvististhefuture said:

I forgot the wings were still in the west when the deal happened, either way it seems like everyone but ken Holland was aware what a horrible trade that was when the deal occurred. We will never know either way 100% unless yzerman/Dubas says a better deal was on the table than the Carolina one but I’ll always believe till that day comes had we offered say a 3rd rd pick instead of the canes 6th we’d have won the marleau deal.

So in regards to the Quincey trade, I assume you think Sakic is just stupid then?

51 minutes ago, nyqvististhefuture said:

Again a 26-31 pick is hardly a lock at being an nhl player and when all is said is done picking 100 spots earlier on the  leafs end is a no brainer. I think some teams are realizing limiting themselves to trade with other divisions are doing themselves a disservice by knocking out 25% of trading partners right off the bat 

No draft pick is a lock to be an NHL player. But picks midway through the 2nd and higher have a much much higher statistical probability of becoming an NHLer. By the 3rd the chance of success really drops off. A 26-31 selection is a very valuable pick and there is very serious potential of finding a star player in that section of the draft, and we'll be lucky if we get one of those at the TDL this year.

I'd be more inclined to see your POV if this was say Jordan Staal to TOR for a 1st, or Mike Green to TOR for a 1st. In those scenarios both teams are giving up value, and it's all a bit of a wash, so divisons - while still relevant - matter less to me. But in this scenario however it's essentially a 1st for cash. If I'm Dubas I'm going to be ultra concious of where I'm sending that 1st. I would not want to gift a divisional adversary and ancient rival a potential Kronwall or Fischer, in exchange for cap space... there's other teams - like the Canes - who can give me that cap space. The 6th/3rd round pick is a complete afterthought and far from the crux of the trade.

Edited by ChristopherReevesLegs

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3 hours ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

So in regards to the Quincey trade, I assume you think Sakic is just stupid then?

No draft pick is a lock to be an NHL player. But picks midway through the 2nd and higher have a much much higher statistical probability of becoming an NHLer. By the 3rd the chance of success really drops off. A 26-31 selection is a very valuable pick and there is very serious potential of finding a star player in that section of the draft, and we'll be lucky if we get one of those at the TDL this year.

I'd be more inclined to see your POV if this was say Jordan Staal to TOR for a 1st, or Mike Green to TOR for a 1st. In those scenarios both teams are giving up value, and it's all a bit of a wash, so divisons - while still relevant - matter less to me. But in this scenario however it's essentially a 1st for cash. If I'm Dubas I'm going to be ultra concious of where I'm sending that 1st. I would not want to gift a divisional adversary and ancient rival a potential Kronwall or Fischer, in exchange for cap space... there's other teams - like the Canes - who can give me that cap space. The 6th/3rd round pick is a complete afterthought and far from the crux of the trade.

Why would I think Sakic is stupid? Ken Holland is the one who gave up a 1st for a guy he had and just previously let go . From what I remember I don’t think anyone was thrilled it’s givng up a 1st at the time for Kyle 

Well if you think by the 3rd the odds drop imagine in the 6th round? Leafs would give themselves 100 spots better to pick someone they might like who dropped or might not be there later 

hey that’s fine you don’t think they’d have pulled the trigger and that’s your opinion, mine is they’d do the smart thing and take the 100 spots better in the draft to move the player they so desperately wanna move , I think the wings are the least of tampa’s Concerns right now . It’s pretty much leafs bruins and Tampa at this stage coming out of our division.

5 teams can make it in the other division and after the draft Carolina had the leafs just helped them get even better quicker and if I had to bet money I’d say there’s good odds 5 teams will go the playoffs from that division next couple years 

anyways it’s all said and done now and we’re pretty much counting on green and Howard to stay healthy all year to get us assets at the deadline , we got nothing else coming our way 

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1 hour ago, nyqvististhefuture said:

Why would I think Sakic is stupid? Ken Holland is the one who gave up a 1st for a guy he had and just previously let go . From what I remember I don’t think anyone was thrilled it’s givng up a 1st at the time for Kyle

Sakic would not deal Quincey within the western conference to a rival DRW for a great return. Sakic would however deal 
Quincey to the eastern conference for a lesser return.

Your premise is that Dubas would deal Marleau within the divison to a rival DRW for a great return, over trading him to someone outside the division for a slightly lesser return.

By your logic, Sakic should have traded Quincey to the Red Wings directly and garnered the 1st round pick.

Therefore I'd conclude you think Sakic is stupid, or at least did something stupid in this instance. Wouldn't you agree?

Holland actually did something unusually clever by his standards, to get the player he wanted. Unfortunately he overestimated the value of Quincey which was his stupid move.

1 hour ago, nyqvististhefuture said:

Well if you think by the 3rd the odds drop imagine in the 6th round? Leafs would give themselves 100 spots better to pick someone they might like who dropped or might not be there later

Not true. The 3rd and the 6th are more similar than the 3rd and 1st. Most NHL players are concentrated in the first 2 rounds. Everything after that is almost a total crap shoot.

RD1: 80% chance
RD2: 44% chance
RD3: 30% chance
RD4: 20% chance
RD5: 19% chance
RD6: 18% chance
RD7: 17% chance

Those are rough numbers provided by sportsnet: https://www.tsn.ca/playing-the-percentages-in-the-nhl-draft-1.206144

So statistically speaking there's only about a 12% difference between the 3rd and 6th rounds. But there's a whopping 50% difference between the 3rd and 1st. After the first you're really just haggling over pennies.

To continue, point production per game by guys who make the NHL (measured against where a player was taken in the draft) also sharply drops after the 1st and 2nd rounds. Basically, the vast majority of point producers are selected in the first 2 rounds. After that, if you do find an NHLer, he's probably a Helm or some other bottom 6/bottom pairing player.

So not only is there a wide margin of success, there's also a wide margin of quality.

Zetterberg and Dastyuk are draft freaks that skew all the data.

1 hour ago, nyqvististhefuture said:

hey that’s fine you don’t think they’d have pulled the trigger and that’s your opinion, mine is they’d do the smart thing and take the 100 spots better in the draft to move the player they so desperately wanna move ,

My point is it may not be the smart thing for Dubas.

Giving a pick to a divisional rival that has an 80% chance of becoming a key point producer in the NHL in order to gain another 12% success rate on a relatively minor draft pick isn't conducive to long term success, and has a serious chance of biting you in the butt in a few years. Essentially giving a team who's going to take points away from you a Tatar, while gaining a Glendening yourself. In my mind it's better to give that Tatar to someone who will take less points away from you and still have a relatively good chance at that Glendening I guess you think you want.

If I'm in Dubas's shoes I do the trade with Carolina over what you're suggesting with Detroit all day and twice on Sunday.

Edited by ChristopherReevesLegs

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14 hours ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

Sakic would not deal Quincey within the western conference to a rival DRW for a great return. Sakic would however deal 
Quincey to the eastern conference for a lesser return.

Your premise is that Dubas would deal Marleau within the divison to a rival DRW for a great return, over trading him to someone outside the division for a slightly lesser return.

By your logic, Sakic should have traded Quincey to the Red Wings directly and garnered the 1st round pick.

Therefore I'd conclude you think Sakic is stupid, or at least did something stupid in this instance. Wouldn't you agree?

Holland actually did something unusually clever by his standards, to get the player he wanted. Unfortunately he overestimated the value of Quincey which was his stupid move.

Not true. The 3rd and the 6th are more similar than the 3rd and 1st. Most NHL players are concentrated in the first 2 rounds. Everything after that is almost a total crap shoot.

RD1: 80% chance
RD2: 44% chance
RD3: 30% chance
RD4: 20% chance
RD5: 19% chance
RD6: 18% chance
RD7: 17% chance

Those are rough numbers provided by sportsnet: https://www.tsn.ca/playing-the-percentages-in-the-nhl-draft-1.206144

So statistically speaking there's only about a 12% difference between the 3rd and 6th rounds. But there's a whopping 50% difference between the 3rd and 1st. After the first you're really just haggling over pennies.

To continue, point production per game by guys who make the NHL (measured against where a player was taken in the draft) also sharply drops after the 1st and 2nd rounds. Basically, the vast majority of point producers are selected in the first 2 rounds. After that, if you do find an NHLer, he's probably a Helm or some other bottom 6/bottom pairing player.

So not only is there a wide margin of success, there's also a wide margin of quality.

Zetterberg and Dastyuk are draft freaks that skew all the data.

My point is it may not be the smart thing for Dubas.

Giving a pick to a divisional rival that has an 80% chance of becoming a key point producer in the NHL in order to gain another 12% success rate on a relatively minor draft pick isn't conducive to long term success, and has a serious chance of biting you in the butt in a few years. Essentially giving a team who's going to take points away from you a Tatar, while gaining a Glendening yourself. In my mind it's better to give that Tatar to someone who will take less points away from you and still have a relatively good chance at that Glendening I guess you think you want.

If I'm in Dubas's shoes I do the trade with Carolina over what you're suggesting with Detroit all day and twice on Sunday.

Just a heads up I don’t know how to fix it all nice like you did above so don’t hate my guts for my reply lol

 

first the sakic stuff , we’ll never know if that was the case but yes probably but times have also changed , now there is only 4 divisions and your basically cancelling out 1/4 th of teams in the league you can deal with and doing yourself a disservice so I personally think that doesn’t apply any longer unless your talking about trading a mcdavid type star within your division ... a mid to late first or middle player or prospect I think teams would consider anything If the return was best for the team

 

Grewe or soderblom ? Eliasson or brattstrom? I know if I was a gm I’d rather be drafting a 3rd rounder over a 6th any day . Yes it’s all a crapshoot at the end of the day but I’d rather pick 100 spots earlier and grab someone I got my eye on that might not be there later on and I’ll stick to that stance. Brayden point was a 3rd rounder, it’s that teams job to find that guy who slipped out of the first few rounds 

 

your 80% first rounder chance doesn’t necessarily mean they’d be a key point producer but I get your point and maybe your right and Dubas would have said no but we’ll never know. It’s not like he shipped him out west , again he helped a fellow eastern team and Carolina is on the rise and that division has a very good chance of having 5 playoff teams for the next 2-3 years at least so I don’t think it would have hurt the leafs 

if im Kyle Dubas I do my offer 24/7 2 times any day lol ... guess we won’t agree with this one . I’m sure we can agree our assets to use to get more picks for next draft is beyond mediocre and pisses me off personally which is why the marleau s*** bugs me and add the Callahan deal we were counting on collapsing ... was hoping somehow for nichushkin so he can have a good year and ship him off , it’s all green and Howard 

I’m hoping at this point  somehow yzerman can pull off puljujarvi from the oilers , think with us adding filppula it might be a good time to land him with a Finnish veteran around he can communicate with, if he rebounds and becomes what teams thought he could be that instantly makes AA or someone like berggren available to get an important piece back

outside of that Gardner x1 and goodbye on deadline day but I’m realistically expecting what we got right now to be it 

Edited by nyqvististhefuture

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1 hour ago, nyqvististhefuture said:

now there is only 4 divisions and your basically cancelling out 1/4 th of teams in the league you can deal with and doing yourself a disservice so I personally think that doesn’t apply any longer unless your talking about trading a mcdavid type star within your division ...

It most certainly still applies.

Take Mike Hoffman. Dorion was commanded to trade him to the Western conference. He was thus traded to the Sharks and then flipped back to the Eastern conference with Florida and the Sens were pissed. The Sens essentially limited themselves to 1/2 of the teams in the league in that trade. It goes without saying that if teams are willing to cut their trading partners by 50%, they are also willing to cut them by 25%.

1 hour ago, nyqvististhefuture said:

Grewe or soderblom ? Eliasson or brattstrom? I know if I was a gm I’d rather be drafting a 3rd rounder over a 6th any day . Yes it’s all a crapshoot at the end of the day but I’d rather pick 100 spots earlier and grab someone I got my eye on that might not be there later on and I’ll stick to that stance. Brayden point was a 3rd rounder, it’s that teams job to find that guy who slipped out of the first few rounds

Of course a GM would rather pick in the 3rd than in the 6th. One is higher than the other. That's not what I'm arguing...

There's only 12% difference in value between 3rd and 6th. So in reality it isn't much of an upgrade in a trade scenario. Which is why I'd suggest taking a slightly lesser pick to send the 1st outside the division would be a savy move.

Brayden Point is an outlier like Lidstrom, not the norm.

1 hour ago, nyqvististhefuture said:

your 80% first rounder chance doesn’t necessarily mean they’d be a key point producer but I get your point and maybe your right and Dubas would have said no but we’ll never know. It’s not like he shipped him out west , again he helped a fellow eastern team and Carolina is on the rise and that division has a very good chance of having 5 playoff teams for the next 2-3 years at least so I don’t think it would have hurt the leafs 

if im Kyle Dubas I do my offer 24/7 2 times any day lol ... guess we won’t agree with this one . I’m sure we can agree our assets to use to get more picks for next draft is beyond mediocre and pisses me off personally which is why the marleau s*** bugs me and add the Callahan deal we were counting on collapsing ... was hoping somehow for nichushkin so he can have a good year and ship him off , it’s all green and Howard

In the last 7 years (since re-alignment) the Leafs have traded within the Atlantic 7 times. Two minor trades with Florida. Twice with the Bolts (one minor trade and a trade to acquire Brian Boyle). Three times with Ottawa (two large player swaps and one minor trade). And once with Montreal to acquire Plekanec (MTL and TOR have only traded 3 times in the last quarter century)

Out of all those trades since re-alignment, the most valuable piece they gave to a divisional rival is probably Connor Brown to Ottawa. A player drafted in the 6th, who played on the 4th line under Babs, though I expect he'll be a 3rd liner in Ottawa.

They have not completed a trade with Boston since 2011, Buffalo since 2009, and Detroit since 1998 (We literally haven't completed a trade with them in over 20 years).

Since the Atlantic division was instituted 26 years ago, the Leafs have only moved their first rounder within the division 3 times. Once in the 90s to the Flyers for Yushkevich. In 2004 to the Rangers for Brian Leetch. And they swapped 1sts with the Islanders once upon a time.

The numbers show the Leafs (and all teams) do not like to trade within their division and especially not with their rivals (in the Leafs case: Montreal and Detroit). When they do trade within the division it's usually something very minor like an AHL swap or dumping salary.

The Marleau trade was a gift horse. That gift was never going to go to Detroit, or any divisional rival. No 3rd or 6th was going to change that. And I'll reiterate... this trade was not about the 6th. It was about the 1st and the cap space. You're fixated on the part of the deal that doesn't matter.

Edited by ChristopherReevesLegs

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1 hour ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

It most certainly still applies.

Take Mike Hoffman. Dorion was commanded to trade him to the Western conference. He was thus traded to the Sharks and then flipped back to the Eastern conference with Florida and the Sens were pissed. The Sens essentially limited themselves to 1/2 of the teams in the league in that trade. It goes without saying that if teams are willing to cut their trading partners by 50%, they are also willing to cut them by 25%.

Of course a GM would rather pick in the 3rd than in the 6th. One is higher than the other. That's not what I'm arguing...

There's only 12% difference in value between 3rd and 6th. So in reality it isn't much of an upgrade in a trade scenario. Which is why I'd suggest taking a slightly lesser pick to send the 1st outside the division would be a savy move.

Brayden Point is an outlier like Lidstrom, not the norm.

In the last 7 years (since re-alignment) the Leafs have traded within the Atlantic 7 times. Two minor trades with Florida. Twice with the Bolts (one minor trade and a trade to acquire Brian Boyle). Three times with Ottawa (two large player swaps and one minor trade). And once with Montreal to acquire Plekanec (MTL and TOR have only traded 3 times in the last quarter century)

Out of all those trades since re-alignment, the most valuable piece they gave to a divisional rival is probably Connor Brown to Ottawa. A player drafted in the 6th, who played on the 4th line under Babs, though I expect he'll be a 3rd liner in Ottawa.

They have not completed a trade with Boston since 2011, Buffalo since 2009, and Detroit since 1998 (We literally haven't completed a trade with them in over 20 years).

Since the Atlantic division was instituted 26 years ago, the Leafs have only moved their first rounder within the division 3 times. Once in the 90s to the Flyers for Yushkevich. In 2004 to the Rangers for Brian Leetch. And they swapped 1sts with the Islanders once upon a time.

The numbers show the Leafs (and all teams) do not like to trade within their division and especially not with their rivals (in the Leafs case: Montreal and Detroit). When they do trade within the division it's usually something very minor like an AHL swap or dumping salary.

The Marleau trade was a gift horse. That gift was never going to go to Detroit, or any divisional rival. No 3rd or 6th was going to change that. And I'll reiterate... this trade was not about the 6th. It was about the 1st and the cap space. You're fixated on the part of the deal that doesn't matter.

I think might have been to do with Karlsson and Hoffman debacle? Maybe wanted Hoffman as far as possible to try and keep Karlsson ?im sure what your saying happens but I think it depends on the player and circumstances 

wings Tampa had the Erne deal ... sens Tampa had the Callahan deal ... the lucic/Neal deal ... the Ceci/zaitsev big player(s) deal  ... gudas/Niskanen deal ... anyways I think it all depends on the situation but I think any gm would be foolish to not consider all trading partners if it’s beneficial for the team, if we traded say athanasiou to the sabres for ristolainen , something like that ... not saying I’d do that deal but just saying something that can help both teams shouldn’t be ignored if it’s the best deal for the teams involved 

 

I know the % isn’t that much higher but I’m saying if there’s someone you really like , or say maybe two players your hoping to target in the third round (if you still have your own 3rd) and know there’s a risk they won’t be there in the 4th-6th rounds then it’s always the best move to have a pick that’s 100 spots better , I get what your saying but I don’t think there has been many impact guys the last what 5 years from what I recall that were picked 25-31 , John Beecher for me comes to mind cause I wanted him so bad last year but as good of a shutdown guy he can be that might produce numbers better than expected I don’t think he’ll be popping 60+ 

Anyways again I get what your saying , maybe I’d be fired as a gm but if I was Dubas I’d take the 3rd back from the wings instead of the canes and not cause I’m a wings fan , I’d do the same if it was a deal with the sens

But if Tampa didn’t have that 3rd, they wouldn’t have point , more earlier picks the better ... it’s always the teams job to get that guy 

 

Well to be fair who have the leafs traded of  late that was worth talking about? J.v.r?bozak? Sundin was never dealt ... big impact guys are hardly dealt anymore by teams and signed longterm, I do think we’ll see more deals within the same conference and divisions 

yes im well aware the deal was made for the leafs to get that important cap space which is why they gave up the first  I’m fixated again cause I think they might have moved up 100 spots in a deal if we sent a 3rd ... you could be 100% right , I could be right ... I know we’ll never know 100% for certain unless Dubas/yzerman said they talked to eachother and a deal would never have worked out between the two teams 

anyways all this back and forth is going nowhere lol we have two different opinions on this and that’s fine 

 

 

 

Edited by nyqvististhefuture

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5 minutes ago, nyqvististhefuture said:

I think might have been to do with Karlsson and Hoffman debacle? Maybe wanted Hoffman as far as possible to try and keep Karlsson ?im sure what your saying happens but I think it depends on the player and circumstances

So you think the Sens wanted Hoffman in the West because if he went to an eastern conference team it would upset Karlsson??? I'm sorry but that's the most ridiculous thing I've heard in a while. I HIGHLY doubt Karlsson cared about Hoffman's proximity to Ottawa lol. The closest other NHL franchise is MTL which is over 200 kilometers away.

Yes, sending players to your opposing conference to keep your own conference weak is a thing, and its been a thing for years. I thought that was common knowledge in all sports.

17 minutes ago, nyqvististhefuture said:

wings Tampa had the Erne deal ... sens Tampa had the Callahan deal ... the lucic/Neal deal ... the Ceci/zaitsev big player(s) deal  ... gudas/Niskanen deal ... anyways I think it all depends on the situation but I think any gm would be foolish to not consider all trading partners if it’s beneficial for the team, if we traded say athanasiou to the sabres for ristolainen , something like that ... not saying I’d do that deal but just saying something that can help both teams shouldn’t be ignored if it’s the best deal for the teams involved

And which one of those deals is a gift horse like the Marleau deal? (Clue: they're not)

You've completely missed the point. Divisional trades certainly happen, as I illustrated in my previous post literally breaking down the Leafs history of divisional trades. But divisional trades are much more rare, and they certainly aren't going to gift each other. The Leafs have only moved their 1st rounder in the division in the last 26 years 3 times. One was a 1st swap, and the other two were for a prominent player. The only time I can remember a divisional rival gift another divisional rival anything was the Larry Murphy to DET deal. And that was the Leafs brass caving to pressure from R-tard Leafs fans who were booing Murph every time he touched the puck.

40 minutes ago, nyqvististhefuture said:

I know the % isn’t that much higher but I’m saying if there’s someone you really like , or say maybe two players your hoping to target in the third round (if you still have your own 3rd) and know there’s a risk they won’t be there in the 4th-6th rounds then it’s always the best move to have a pick that’s 100 spots better

Who exactly are the Leafs getting a 3rd to target with? The draft is like 10 months away and the season hasn't even started. I doubt they know who they'd be targeting in the 1st yet if they had a 1st. Likewise, you can target guys with your 6th pick too... so I fail to see your point.

44 minutes ago, nyqvististhefuture said:

I get what your saying but I don’t think there has been many impact guys the last what 5 years from what I recall that were picked 25-31

Well no duh, it's too soon to tell from the last 5 years. Guys from the 2016 draft are just turning 21 now.

From 2011 to 2015:

  • Namestnikov
  • Rakell
  • Matheson
  • Malcolm Subban
  • Skjei
  • Pearson
  • Burakovsky
  • Shea Theodore
  • Hartman
  • Pastranak
  • Ho-Sang
  • Adrian Kempe
  • Boeser
  • Konecny

Also the argument "the dice have rolled well in the late 1st lately" is basic gamblers fallacy. Doesn't logically hold water at all.

57 minutes ago, nyqvististhefuture said:

Anyways again I get what your saying , maybe I’d be fired as a gm but if I was Dubas I’d take the 3rd back from the wings instead of the canes and not cause I’m a wings fan , I’d do the same if it was a deal with the sens

Lets reverse things shall we?

It's August 2013. The Red Wings streak is still alive and we still have Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Franzen, and Babcock, and we have a young Tatar, Nyquist, and DK just joining the roster.

Meanwhile the Leafs still suck donkey balls

You're GM and you've decided the Michael Samuelsson signing was a big mistake (it was) and you want to dump his salary to make room to sign other players.

The deal on the table is Samuelsson + 1st to Toronto for a 3rd round pick. Do you do it?

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1 hour ago, nyqvististhefuture said:

yes im well aware the deal was made for the leafs to get that important cap space which is why they gave up the first  I’m fixated again cause I think they might have moved up 100 spots in a deal if we sent a 3rd

You keep saying 100 spots like it means something. You're arguing for a 12% advantage.

The range of draft pick values are essentially a function of inverse exponential decay. Once you get past pick #45 or #50 everything drops off and bottoms out. Rounds 3-7 aren't very different at all.

It'd be like if Canada offered to buy natural resources from the USA for $100 million, but Trump said no thanks, I'd rather sell my resources to China, they offered $112 million. That deal looks like a no-brainer on paper, but in terms of global politics you're enriching your enemy for a measly $12 million, and the long-term consequences of that are likely to cost you much more than $12 million.

Edited by ChristopherReevesLegs

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1 hour ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

So you think the Sens wanted Hoffman in the West because if he went to an eastern conference team it would upset Karlsson??? I'm sorry but that's the most ridiculous thing I've heard in a while. I HIGHLY doubt Karlsson cared about Hoffman's proximity to Ottawa lol. The closest other NHL franchise is MTL which is over 200 kilometers away.

Yes, sending players to your opposing conference to keep your own conference weak is a thing, and its been a thing for years. I thought that was common knowledge in all sports.

And which one of those deals is a gift horse like the Marleau deal? (Clue: they're not)

You've completely missed the point. Divisional trades certainly happen, as I illustrated in my previous post literally breaking down the Leafs history of divisional trades. But divisional trades are much more rare, and they certainly aren't going to gift each other. The Leafs have only moved their 1st rounder in the division in the last 26 years 3 times. One was a 1st swap, and the other two were for a prominent player. The only time I can remember a divisional rival gift another divisional rival anything was the Larry Murphy to DET deal. And that was the Leafs brass caving to pressure from R-tard Leafs fans who were booing Murph every time he touched the puck.

Who exactly are the Leafs getting a 3rd to target with? The draft is like 10 months away and the season hasn't even started. I doubt they know who they'd be targeting in the 1st yet if they had a 1st. Likewise, you can target guys with your 6th pick too... so I fail to see your point.

Well no duh, it's too soon to tell from the last 5 years. Guys from the 2016 draft are just turning 21 now.

From 2011 to 2015:

  • Namestnikov
  • Rakell
  • Matheson
  • Malcolm Subban
  • Skjei
  • Pearson
  • Burakovsky
  • Shea Theodore
  • Hartman
  • Pastranak
  • Ho-Sang
  • Adrian Kempe
  • Boeser
  • Konecny

Also the argument "the dice have rolled well in the late 1st lately" is basic gamblers fallacy. Doesn't logically hold water at all.

Lets reverse things shall we?

It's August 2013. The Red Wings streak is still alive and we still have Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Franzen, and Babcock, and we have a young Tatar, Nyquist, and DK just joining the roster.

Meanwhile the Leafs still suck donkey balls

You're GM and you've decided the Michael Samuelsson signing was a big mistake (it was) and you want to dump his salary to make room to sign other players.

The deal on the table is Samuelsson + 1st to Toronto for a 3rd round pick. Do you do it?

Well then I guess it’s the most ridiculous thing you’ve ever heard lol. Hoffman staying in the same division would have meant Karlsson would play Hoffman more and see him more than if he was sent to the west  and I’m sure the stupid sens were still trying to please Karlsson and trying to keep him as a sen 

Never said it wasn’t, I said multiple occasions teams wouldn’t trade star players within a division but I think times are changing and you’ll see more moves within the division depending on the  assets being moved  

 

Again , I don’t think a 25-31 pick is a “huge move “ if your getting back a much better deal from someone else other than the canes ... were just rehashing the same s*** over and over lol 

 

How the hell do I know who the leafs or any team will target in the third round a year from now lol, it’s always good to have that pick when the time comes ... you fail to see my point cause you don’t agree with me and that’s fine , just going around in circles here

 

Ya from that list of spectacular players you posted I can see why the leafs or anyone else would trade within the division for the much better return when you have all that talent that made it 25-31? Lol  boeser ...Theodore...pastranak....konecky , pretty much that’s all I’d consider to be a threat , hardly a reason to stop doing a deal that’s better for your own team

 

All depends our current situation and who we might lose due to cap restraints , I personally would do it if we were the leafs and guaranteed to get a late pick , wtf have we done the last 20 + years picking 20-30 when we were at the top? Our draft record was horrible so I would if it meant keeping the gang together and going for another Stanley cup 

1 hour ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

You keep saying 100 spots like it means something. You're arguing for a 12% advantage.

The range of draft pick values are essentially a function of inverse exponential decay. Once you get past pick #45 or #50 everything drops off and bottoms out. Rounds 3-7 aren't very different at all.

It'd be like if Canada offered to buy natural resources from the USA for $100 million, but Trump said no thanks, I'd rather sell my resources to China, they offered $112 million. That deal looks like a no-brainer on paper, but in terms of global politics you're enriching your enemy for a measly $12 million, and the long-term consequences of that are likely to cost you much more than $12 million.

You keep saying it’s only a 12% advantage like it doesn’t mean something ... to me it does , we agree to disagree 

Again we’re just going around in circles and repeating the same stuff , we don’t agree, that’s it .

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15 minutes ago, nyqvististhefuture said:

Well then I guess it’s the most ridiculous thing you’ve ever heard lol. Hoffman staying in the same division would have meant Karlsson would play Hoffman more and see him more than if he was sent to the west  and I’m sure the stupid sens were still trying to please Karlsson and trying to keep him as a sen

So Dorion wasn't mad his big trade piece ended up in his own division, strengthening a rival. He was mad because Karlsson is a child and can't stand to be on the same ice as Hoffman a few more times a year? Gotcha

20 minutes ago, nyqvististhefuture said:

Never said it wasn’t, I said multiple occasions teams wouldn’t trade star players within a division but I think times are changing and you’ll see more moves within the division depending on the  assets being moved 

Oh yeah? What changed?

21 minutes ago, nyqvististhefuture said:

Again , I don’t think a 25-31 pick is a “huge move “ if your getting back a much better deal from someone else other than the canes ... were just rehashing the same s*** over and over lol 

Giving up a pick with an 80% chance of becoming an NHLer and likely top6er = not a huge move

Getting a pick with an 30% chance over a pick with an 18% chance, both likely bottom6ers = crucial move

Gotcha

26 minutes ago, nyqvististhefuture said:

How the hell do I know who the leafs or any team will target in the third round a year from now lol, it’s always good to have that pick when the time comes ... you fail to see my point cause you don’t agree with me and that’s fine , just going around in circles here

Exactly. And neither do the Leafs. In fact they may have no one they want to target in the 3rd next year and could even want to trade back in that round. The crux of your argument was they may want to target someone in the third. Well they also may not. You don't know

29 minutes ago, nyqvististhefuture said:

Ya from that list of spectacular players you posted I can see why the leafs or anyone else would trade within the division for the much better return when you have all that talent that made it 25-31? Lol  boeser ...Theodore...pastranak....konecky , pretty much that’s all I’d consider to be a threat , hardly a reason to stop doing a deal that’s better for your own team

38hgco.jpg

It's interesting that you're going out of your way to try and devalue a late first, but are hot to trot that moving from 6 to the 3rd is a crucial move.

Why do teams even bother going after late firsts every year at the TDL I wonder?

37 minutes ago, nyqvististhefuture said:

All depends our current situation and who we might lose due to cap restraints , I personally would do it if we were the leafs and guaranteed to get a late pick , wtf have we done the last 20 + years picking 20-30 when we were at the top? Our draft record was horrible so I would if it meant keeping the gang together and going for another Stanley cup .

Depends on the current situation? I laid out the situation pretty clearly and specifically. No need to try and dance around it.

Would you do it?

39 minutes ago, nyqvististhefuture said:

You keep saying it’s only a 12% advantage like it doesn’t mean something ... to me it does , we agree to disagree 

Again we’re just going around in circles and repeating the same stuff , we don’t agree, that’s it .

"doesn't mean something" That's a new one.

You're welcome to bow out of the conversation at any point. I'm fairly satisfied with the display going on lol.

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