Are The Ducks Really In Bad Shape?

[WhiteLightning91 105]

I was looking over at NHLnumbers.com and saw how close to the Cap the Ducks are at the moment and it got me wondering what would there team look like if they match the Penner offer. Are they really in as bad of shape as people are making them out to be? I don't think so.

Lets say for the sake of this topic that Selanne and Niedermayer do in fact retire or Teemu goes to another team and offer sheet for Penner is matched by Burke. As of right now the Ducks commitment to next years cap is $48.224. if you subtract Niedermayers salary of $6.75M then its becomes $41.474. Then add in the $4.25M offer sheet for Penner and it becomes $45.724.

Now they have to look towards the future, I.E. Perry(RFA), Getlaf(RFA), and Kunitz(UFA). That means shedding salary this season in order to have money for those 3 guys next season. My guess is that Bryzgalov is gonna be kicked out the door the first moment Burke gets an offer for him. Same goes for Marchant and his $2.5M salary. Todd is often injured and on the downside of his career. Moen, Pahlsson, Rob Niedermayer, Parros, and May are just as tough, if not tougher than Marchant, and most of them are younger, as well as cheaper. Marchant is a a guy who for whatever reason always finds a team interested in him so I see no reason why Burke couldn't couldn't find a team who wants him.

After those moves their salary could come down to $42.025 with this line-up...

Kunitz-McDonald-Bertuzzi

Penner-Getzlaf-Perry

Moen-Pahlsson-Niedermayer

May-Carter-Parros

Pronger-Beauchemin

Schneider-O'Donnell

Huskins-Jackman

Giguere

Hiller

Now, it's not as scary as a line-up as last year no doubt, but they are not in as much hell with the cap as people make them out to be and have a ton of room to fill in the 4th line and 3rd pairing on defense with quality players. Burke will make it happen and this team will be pretty tough next year again.

Edited July 31, 2007 by WhiteLightning91

[Guest GordieSid&Ted]

I was looking over at NHLnumbers.com and saw how close to the Cap the Ducks are at the moment and it got me wondering what would there team look like if they match the Penner offer. Are they really in as bad of shape as people are making them out to be? I don't think so.

Lets say for the sake of this topic that Selanne and Niedermayer do in fact retire or Teemu goes to another team and offer sheet for Penner is matched by Burke. As of right now the Ducks commitment to next years cap is $48.224. if you subtract Niedermayers salary of $6.75M then its becomes $41.474. Then add in the $4.25M offer sheet for Penner and it becomes $45.724.

Now they have to look towards the future, I.E. Perry(RFA), Getlaf(RFA), and Kunitz(UFA). That means shedding salary this season in order to have money for those 3 guys next season. My guess is that Bryzgalov is gonna be kicked out the door the first moment Burke gets an offer for him. Same goes for Marchant and his $2.5M salary. Todd is often injured and on the downside of his career. Moen, Pahlsson, Rob Niedermayer, Parros, and May are just as tough, if not tougher than Marchant, and most of them are younger, as well as cheaper. Marchant is a a guy who for whatever reason always finds a team interested in him so I see no reason why Burke couldn't couldn't find a team who wants him.

After those moves their salary could come down to $42.025 with this line-up...

Kunitz-McDonald-Bertuzzi

Penner-Getzlaf-Perry

Moen-Pahlsson-Niedermayer

May-Carter-Parros

Pronger-Beauchemin

Schneider-O'Donnell

Huskins-Jackman

Giguere

Hiller

Now, it's not as scary as a line-up as last year no doubt, but they are not in as much hell with the cap as people make them out to be and have a ton of room to fill in the 4th line and 3rd pairing on defense with quality players. Burke will make it happen and this team will be pretty tough next year again.

The problem is he signed Bertuzzi and Schneider to mulit-year deals. He can't shed those salaries next season. And, Getzlaf and Perry are going to get as much if not more than Penner so you might as well heap another 8-10 million onto their payroll.

They'll shed payroll by dumping guys like Marchant, Bryz, maybe ODonnell, I don't know their current committments or length of term for some of those guys but i'm betting some will be gone. They're going to be near the top of the payroll limit for awhile. Shouldn't surprise anybody, they're the defending champs, they have some great players in their lineup and like the Wings, competitive teams with good GM's tend to keep their teams payrolls up there just like Holland. Burke isn't a genius but he is very good. I just don't like the Bert signing, especially for 2 seasons.

[haroldsnepsts 4,826]

I don't think they're really in trouble until the 09/10 season when they have 14 UFAs.

That should be an interesting year for Burke.

http://www.nhlnumbers.com/ana.html

[Wings_Fan_In_Exile 3]

I have nothing of substance to add to this topic, but I just had to re-state my hatred for Burke and the Ducks.

Soure grapes yes, but I have a strong dislike for those bastards. :flamingmad:

OK, carry on.

[martyrme19 73]

You make some valid points, and i'm sure burke has played out this very scenario in his head. However, I think this is what would happen if things went perfectly for the ducks, which if you know anything about sports, you know nothing goes perfectly.

You give a lot of ifs, and assume a few things.

First, lets deal with the retirements.

Your assuming that selanne and niedermayer dont come back. Well, if they dont come back, as given in your example, you're assuming that what the two of them leave with will be picked back up from schneids and bertuzzi. Now, are these two players as good, or better than the two leaving? No one can say for certain, but in order for that answer to be yes, Bertuzzi needs to stay healthy AND reform himself to his previous stature. As well, Scneids needs to replicate the formula that Chelios has used and be as effective as he gets a year and another older. May this happen? well it could if everything went perfectly. But what did we say about things going perfectly?

Now lets say that one of those players do wanna come back. For the sake of argument, we'll say at least one will retire for sure. Well, just one of their salaries will offset your total argument and they will infact, be in deep cap trouble. Although Selanna has been known to take huge pay cuts before in order to win, so maybe he'll do it again to help out the ducks. But he just won his cup....so how important is that paycheck now? Well, in a perfect world he'll still take that pay cut.

Now on to shedding some salary. Your probably right that they would like to move marchant. he makes 2.4 and 2.6 respectively the next two seasons. As well, they're pretty deep at center. However, I'm not so sure it will be as easy to move the guy as you make it seem. One, if they trade him this year, he'll still have another year on his contract at 2.6. Now teams arent stupid. I'm not sure too many people are willing to trade something of value for a guy whos barely scored 25 goals COMBINED in the last 4 seasons. not to mention he's missed 121 games in the last 5 seasons and 111 of those games came in the last 3 seasons. Perhaps if they wanna dump him, they can find a taker for a 5th round draft pick to make a serious salary dump move.

Then there is Bryzgalov. Now, considering this is his contract year, and he'll most likely demand some serious cash, Bourke would be an idiot not to move him. They wont keep two perennial goaltenders on their roster, and i'm sure they dont want to lose him to FA. However, if they did dump him, that only clears about 1.4 million and I believe it would actually be less because I dont think Hillers salary would count against their cap until they brought him up which would mean they would only be clearing .600 mil in cap space. Not to mention, you have to ask yourself.....they could probably demand a decent player in return for Bryzgalov, but if they wanna dump salary, theyd only be able to command draft picks or prospects that arent due to the NHL yet...and that can always be a crap shoot.

The on to the FA's and RFA's. So lets say idealy they are able to shed enough cap space to get around 4 mil to work with. How much money do you think these three players are gonna ask for? in your example, it made it seem like they assume to just keep the same salary theyre making now. Well, I hardly think thatll be the case.

Kunitz scored 25 goals last season, and 19 his rookie year with only 65 games. Its safe to say this guy is a lock for 20 goals a season and i'm sure he'll only get better and look to produce around 30 goals this year. Not to mention players always seem to perform better their contract year (see M.Lapointe). He makes a hair over 1 mil this year and could expect him to ask for a modest raise by 2 mil or so to move him to around 3 mil. Or maybe he'll get cocky and expect around 4 mil, who knows these days.

Now Getzlaf......well who knows about this guy. He scored as many goals as Kunitz did this past year, at 25, in around 80 games as well at around .600 cap hit. Scored a little less goals in a little less games as Kunitz his rookie year, so they're procucing at about the same level. However, at 6'3" his stature helps him demand a bit more respect when it comes to negotiating a contract. We just saw Penner get offered 4.25 mil.....Im sure Getzlaf is looking to make at least that much after he ups his scoring total this year to over 30.

Now Perry is another 6'3" monster who can hope to bank around 20 goals a season, maybe more barring a break out year. he makes around .500 mil a year and i gotta assume he'd be looking at around 2 mil after that. And I wouldnt be suprised to see an offer sheet thrown at this guy either the following season. So all in all i'm saying you gotta expect these guys to demand around 9 million as a total package....maybe more if one guy overestimates his talent which seems to be a common thread anyways.

So, if neither teemu or neids comes back....that will help retain some of these players. But you cant forget, if they dont come back.....that means those are two HUGE players that arent coming back. This year might reveal Bert and Scneids as two names that just arent a threat anymore. If the ducks can dump a few mil in salary with marchant and whoever, then ya.....it will help then retain some players. But even if, and thats a huge IF all of that plays out, I cant see them reataining all three players. But with all that being said, even if they only sign one of those guys, (i'd assume theyd keep Getzlaf as long as they can) its not like they'll sink down to the level of the Blue Jackets. I guess all I can say is that i'll be really interested so see what happens to the ducks these next two seasons.

[NeverForgetMac25 483]

I don't think they're really in trouble until the 09/10 season when they have 14 UFAs.

That should be an interesting year for Burke.

http://www.nhlnumbers.com/ana.html

Burke will retire immediately concluding the 08/09 season.

In all seriousness, from a GM's perspective looking at all that "Red" for the 09/10 season is beyond terrifying. Burke is in trouble, especially due to the age of the UFA's on their roster. However, retirement plays a huge factor in this.

Edited July 31, 2007 by Never Forget Mac #25

[Lou_Siffer 1]

I dont really see the 09-10 thing being a big deal at all looking at the players we're talking about. McDonald, Beauchemin, and Pahlsson are the only key guys on the list that would need to be re-signed (assuming that Neidermayer is retired by then). Schneider will be off the books giving them the Beauchemin and Pahlsson money, and if Bert doesnt work out thats McDonald's. All the rest of those numerous FA's are just aging, grinding veterans that can easily be replaced. It sounds alot worse than it really is.

[Lou_Siffer 1]

Whoops, didnt notice Moen! He's obviously a keeper, but again, thats not a break the bank re-signing. Hell i cant believe he's actually only making 925,00....what a bargain.

A look at the rest of the guys i havent named:

R Neidermayer

May

Parros

Marchant

O'Donnell

Hnidy

Huskins

None of these are anything to sweat over in 2 years..

Edited July 31, 2007 by Lou_Siffer

[#1redwingfan 0]

I heard that the owners didn't want to spend over 42 mil. Just something to take into consideration

[haroldsnepsts 4,826]

I dont really see the 09-10 thing being a big deal at all looking at the players we're talking about. McDonald, Beauchemin, and Pahlsson are the only key guys on the list that would need to be re-signed (assuming that Neidermayer is retired by then). Schneider will be off the books giving them the Beauchemin and Pahlsson money, and if Bert doesnt work out thats McDonald's. All the rest of those numerous FA's are just aging, grinding veterans that can easily be replaced. It sounds alot worse than it really is.

Still, having over half your team to either be re-signed or replaced is a pretty big deal in my opinion.

That's a lot of turnover or re-signings all happening at once.

[Kp-Wings 3]

Still, having over half your team to either be re-signed or replaced is a pretty big deal in my opinion.

That's a lot of turnover or re-signings all happening at once.

Yeah, and look what happened with Philly this year. They had a vastly different roster than last years, and it screwed up the whole team's chemistry, giving them a hearty last place finish. Who's to say the same thing won't happen with Anaheim?

Post-lockout, St. Louis is also a good example. They traded Pronger, amoung others, and had a very different roster than the 2003-2004 season, and just couldn't find chemistry.

Edited August 1, 2007 by Kp-Wings

[Henkka 0]

I really like to see Schneider replacing Niedermayer's 32 minutes at the playoffs and Bertuzzi shining like Selanne.

[Hank 0]

The problem is he signed Bertuzzi and Schneider to mulit-year deals. He can't shed those salaries next season. And, Getzlaf and Perry are going to get as much if not more than Penner so you might as well heap another 8-10 million onto their payroll.

They'll shed payroll by dumping guys like Marchant, Bryz, maybe ODonnell, I don't know their current committments or length of term for some of those guys but i'm betting some will be gone. They're going to be near the top of the payroll limit for awhile. Shouldn't surprise anybody, they're the defending champs, they have some great players in their lineup and like the Wings, competitive teams with good GM's tend to keep their teams payrolls up there just like Holland. Burke isn't a genius but he is very good. I just don't like the Bert signing, especially for 2 seasons.

Well stated. The issue is also that if Penner, a 45-point guy, gets $4M+ then Perry will want at least that much and Getzlaf would then ask for over $6M (quite possibly $7M).

Not only that, but every GM in the league would know that Burke is up against a wall come July 1st next season when Getzlaf and Perry are RFA's. You better believe another rogue GM is going to offer Getzlaf a HUGE amount of money that Burke will have trouble matching. And if you're Getzlaf's agent I would strongly advise my client to not accept any extention deal during the season. That agent will know full well the circumstances and will be execpting a giant offer sheet for his client.

It's for that reason that I think Burke should keep Byrz around. If he's going to be tight on salary his best bet would be to deal Giguere and resign Byrz to a long term, more affordable deal.

[Opie 308]

Can you imagine if Lowe takes both Penner and Getzlaf or Penner and Perry form Burke via offer sheets.

Burke's head would implode!!!!

That I would pay to see!!

[NC WINGS FAN 5]

I don't think they're really in trouble until the 09/10 season when they have 14 UFAs.

That should be an interesting year for Burke.

http://www.nhlnumbers.com/ana.html

Agreed, it would be interesting to see how good Giguire would be without that defense and dirty cheating scumbag team on the ice in front of him. Granted he is not a bad goalie as he makes saves when needed, but I do not believe he is this unbeatable force like what Hasek was in Buffalo (well almost). Case and Point where was Giggy in Calgary? or 04? I hope the Ducks (no fans + no history + a really *** name + no good reason for existence = a meaningless organization) suck it up in 08!

[YoungGuns1340 1]

I dont think they are in bad shape. Theres no doubt that they could end up in the s***ter, but not likely.

[BeeRYCE 2]

I don't think they're really in trouble until the 09/10 season when they have 14 UFAs.

That should be an interesting year for Burke.

http://www.nhlnumbers.com/ana.html

It should be VERY interesting, but they will have 4 main guys, which will probably be the top 4 guys come that time. Getzlaf and Perry will probably both be extended long term, while Pronger and Giguere will also be there. Not to mention Bobby Ryan will probably be a steady second liner, maybe even first come that time.

[Dabura 12,232]

Schneider and Bertuzzi are downgrades from Niedermayer and Selanne, respectively. And yes, there are some big question marks as far as near-future re-signings go.

However, they're a long way from being in "bad shape." They have as good a shot as any club at going all the way this season, and I wouldn't be terribly surprised if they do just that.

[GMRwings1983 8,804]

I hate the Ducks like many people here do, but I think they have a great chance to repeat this year as champions. As for the next few years after that, who cares? Are you guys honestly thinking 3 or 4 years ahead as to which team will do what?

[Hank 0]

Agreed, it would be interesting to see how good Giguire would be without that defense and dirty cheating scumbag team on the ice in front of him. Granted he is not a bad goalie as he makes saves when needed, but I do not believe he is this unbeatable force like what Hasek was in Buffalo (well almost). Case and Point where was Giggy in Calgary? or 04? I hope the Ducks (no fans + no history + a really *** name + no good reason for existence = a meaningless organization) suck it up in 08!

Giguere's garbage. Look at his numbers from the '05 playoffs. Under .900 in save% and close to 3.00 in GAA.

The guy is nothing but pads and defense in front of him. If the NHL ever grew a pair and forced them to wear reasonablly sized pads or expanded the size of the net, Giguere would be finished. He's a horrible fraud that gets to sleep on a pile of money because his gutless union allows him to take advantage of a horribly unfair standard enforced on the NHL.

He's the ONLY goalie in the NHL where if you took away his oversized pads he'd be in the ECHL as a backup.

Every other goalie's stats would suffer but almost all of them would still be starters because they're all athletic enough to make big saves when you didn't think it was possible.

Remember Franzen's goal in game 4. Giguere was playing the shooter who was almost to the corner. By the time he saw that the pass made it's way out to Franzen he just stood there like a monkey on a stick. Most other goalies would have tried to dive back but Giguere can barely see anything under that mountain of equipment.

I really can't tell you enough how much I hate this guy (as far as being a goalie). He's been a main contributor to destroying the NHL from what it was. And as long as those *#*&-ers in the PA continue to protect stupid-assed, no-talent goalies like Giggy the game will continue to suffer.

Edited August 1, 2007 by Hank

[YoungGuns1340 1]

Giguere's garbage. Look at his numbers from the '05 playoffs. Under .900 in save% and close to 3.00 in GAA.

The guy is nothing but pads and defense in front of him. If the NHL ever grew a pair and forced them to wear reasonablly sized pads or expanded the size of the net, Giguere would be finished. He's a horrible fraud that gets to sleep on a pile of money because his gutless union allows him to take advantage of a horribly unfair standard enforced on the NHL.

He's the ONLY goalie in the NHL where if you took away his oversized pads he'd be in the ECHL as a backup.

Every other goalie's stats would suffer but almost all of them would still be starters because they're all athletic enough to make big saves when you didn't think it was possible.

Remember Franzen's goal in game 4. Giguere was playing the shooter who was almost to the corner. By the time he saw that the pass made it's way out to Franzen he just stood there like a monkey on a stick. Most other goalies would have tried to dive back but Giguere can barely see anything under that mountain of equipment.

I really can't tell you enough how much I hate this guy (as far as being a goalie). He's been a main contributor to destroying the NHL from what it was. And as long as those *#*&-ers in the PA continue to protect stupid-assed, no-talent goalies like Giggy the game will continue to suffer.

I think an ECHL backup is a little harsh, but I definitely get the point. Giguere really needs good shutdown defenseman to be successful, in order to face as many shots as he can from the perimeter, and Pronger, Beauchemin, Niedermayer, and even O'Donnell to an extent are great shutdown Dmen, even if they are glorified more for their point production.

I dont think anybody can name a starter in the NHL - or maybe even a backup for that matter - that is less flexible than Giguere. I mean, the guy is a wall, but under the system he plays and with the defenders he plays with, he benefits a ton. Itll be interesting to see how well he does given that Schneider has weak shutdown skills and Beauchemin or ODonnell will probably suffer having to play with Schneider after spending so much time with Niedermayer..

[eva unit zero 271]

The Ducks outlook is like this:

If Perry, Getzlaf, and Penner (if matched) continue developing at the rate they have been, the Ducks should be a contender this season, but will lose a good young player (or players) afterward.

If Getzlaf/Perry (and Penner if matched) have down seasons, the Ducks MIGHT be able to stay together, but they will not be a contender this season and will not be able to address any weaknesses in the offseason.

So yes, the Ducks are in bad shape, and yes, it's mainly due to the Bertuzzi and Schneider signings.

[Detroit # 1 Fan 2,204]

Kunitz-Mcdonald-Selanne (if he comes back)

Perry-Getzlaf-Bertuzzi

Niedermayer-Pahlson-Moen

Lacouture-King-May

Parros

Niedermayer(if he comes back)-Beachemin

Pronger-Schnieder

Jackman-Hnidy

Giggy

Bryzz

Not to shabby. I think there fine , that defence is scary

[Kp-Wings 3]

Niedermayer(if he comes back)-Beachemin

Pronger-Schnieder

Jackman-Hnidy

Not to shabby. I think there fine , that defence is scary

Niedermayer is all but done, so removing him for that list leaves a big gap. They'll probably go with Joe Dipenta as the #6 defenseman.

Pronger is a fantastic defenseman. Cheapshot or not, he's still a good player.

Beauchemin is a good player as well. Considering how the loss of Niedermayer really puts them into a bind as far as top defenseman, he'll be the #2 guy, and he's fine in that role.

We all know what Schneider is like, so that need not apply. His horrible defensive awarness will probably bump him down to the #3-4 spot.

Jackman is an ok defenseman, who never lived up to his potential after being drafted so high back in 1996. He'll be fine as a #5-6 defenseman, but could even be bumped to the #4 spot.

Hnidy used to a favorite of mine, but since he's stopped fighting as of late, he doesn't bring all that much else to the table. He's a reliable #5-6 defenseman.

One spot is currently open on their roster if Niedermayer doesn't come back. That could back to Joe Dipenta, or it could go to Kent Huskins. Dipenta and Huskins are pretty even, meaning that their not that good. If they don't get it, I expect they'll use a rookie with a cheap contract.

Overall that defense isn't bad, but Pronger and Beauchemin are their two only reliable defenseman. Schneider has his problems, Jackman never lived up to his potential, Hnidy isn't that great, and neither are Dipenta or Huskins. We'll see how that works out for them.

Kunitz-Mcdonald-Selanne (if he comes back)

Perry-Getzlaf-Bertuzzi

Niedermayer-Pahlson-Moen

Lacouture-King-May

Parros

Selanne is done. He hates Bertuzzi, and stated numerous times that he wants him out of the league. He won't be playing in Anaheim next season.

The rest looks good, except Bertuzzi. Bertuzzi, in my opinion, was totally useless in the short time he spent here, and I have a feeling that'll be the case in Anaheim too. He's a lazy floater who never brings his full potential to every game, has injury problems, and comes with more baggage than any other player in the league. He'll hurt them more than help.

The 4th line is interesting. Lacouture and May are both good 4th liners who will drop the gloves and play a good, physical game. Jason King could provide some offense from the 4th line as well if he makes it. He hasn't played in the NHL in a long time, and has injury problems.

The forwards look much better than the defense. We'll see how it all turns out.

Edit: I forgot Sean O'Donnell! You didn't have him on your list, either.

Yeah, he'll definitly take up any spot that would be needed by Dipenta or Huskins, so they should be in good shape for that.

Edited August 3, 2007 by Kp-Wings

[Lou_Siffer 1]

If Niedermayer retires, dont forger they'll have around 8 million in cap room. Enough to sign another defenseman, and another decent forward. Unless theres a bad relationship with Burke that im unaware of, I think theres an extremely strong chance that defenseman would be Brent Sopel...who played many years in Vancouver under him.

Pronger - Beauchemin

Schneider - Sopel

O'Donnell - Hnidy

Or another possiblilty would be trading for Nick Boynton, I know he went through waivers unclaimed but since there would be a need opened up for him...I could see them getting him for a just a very mediocre draft pick.

Kp- I think you're undervaluing Hnidy a little bit. He was a +15, and also managed to chip in a little offense. For a 5th/6th guy, he's very solid...and certainly a ton better than Dipenta or Huskins.