SI Article: Wings Drafting...

[egroen 384]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writ...pers/index.html

Same guy who had Burke as best GM of 2008.

I acknowledge his points, that for every great and noticeable success Detroit has had, there are 5 more who have never sniffed success.

But there is no questioning the Wings have consistently "gotten lucky" for over 15 years now. The "luck" comes in selecting players, but his article completely ignores that the Wings made a conscious decision to focus on drafting russians, and later europeans; before many teams were willing to take the risk. Illitch spends top dollar on scouts, while many teams have a large reliance on tapes. Wings' scouts draft players who fit into the Wings system; and they have never been reluctant to take a risk on small, skilled players.

Zetterberg was luck -- but the Wings have systematically gone about their scouting to increase their chances of getting "lucky". The results speak for themselves.

[betterREDthandead 58]

Hakan Andersson will even say luck has a lot to do with it. Better to be lucky than good.

Still, a properly-written article would have pointed out other factors besides luck. It's not all a roll of the dice.

[dicksmack 33]

Well first of all, he isn't aware that "sour grapes" refers to rationalization, not resentment...

And sure, for every prospect that turns into an all-world player, there are a handful that never even get a sniff of the NHL. So what? Relative to other teams, the Wings are doing exceptionally well. Due to success and trading picks away, the Wings have had to mine the lower rounds. Just lucky? Andersson is the first to admit that but he's outworked his compatriates and look at guys like Franzen, Filpulla and Hudler... it goes well beyond Hank and Dats. The Wings aren't perfect, as this guy seems to require before being impressed. I disagreed about Kindl; I never liked him due to defen"sieve" lapses and bobbling the puck all time; Jakub may come around, but I doubt it. You can't teach anticipation IMO.

Edited June 22, 2008 by dicksmack

[glasgowcelticwing 18]

Igorance seem's to be bliss with this guy . sure drafting is all about luck but no matter if you are drafted 1st or 210th there is always luck involved . we've seen 1st draft picks fail before and we will again . but team's like the Wings who draft well draft well because they do their homework . they assess the players who's most likely gonna be available to them come draft time and get a feel for them . they see they are skilled and see they have potential but even after they are drafted by their team's it all falls onto the shoulders of the players to fullfill their potential . the Wings get to know the players on a personal level to see if they have the character to do that . too scout so in depth is nothing to do with luck it's hard work and talent on the scouting and the management staff's behalf. that's why the Wings draft well.

[Barrie 900]

The Wings also allow their young players time to grow in the minors and become great players. They don't rush them to the NHL and expect them to do to much to soon. For example Datsyuk was drafted in 1998 but didn't play his first game in the NHL untill the 2001-02 season. Zetterberg, 1999 and didn't make the team until 2002-03.

I think that's the key.

[timothy1997 0]

LUCK is when PREPARATION meets OPPORTUNITY.

Damn Wings must get lucky a lot then.

[chrisdetroit 189]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writ...pers/index.html

Same guy who had Burke as best GM of 2008.

I acknowledge his points, that for every great and noticeable success Detroit has had, there are 5 more who have never sniffed success.

But there is no questioning the Wings have consistently "gotten lucky" for over 15 years now. The "luck" comes in selecting players, but his article completely ignores that the Wings made a conscious decision to focus on drafting russians, and later europeans; before many teams were willing to take the risk. Illitch spends top dollar on scouts, while many teams have a large reliance on tapes. Wings' scouts draft players who fit into the Wings system; and they have never been reluctant to take a risk on small, skilled players.

Zetterberg was luck -- but the Wings have systematically gone about their scouting to increase their chances of getting "lucky". The results speak for themselves.

The implication is that it is ALL luck and it clearly isn't. If it was then it would be somewhat evenly distributed among the 30 teams. Many teams would have low picks that turned into great players. Evidently this guy was sleeping through Proability and Statistics 101.

The Wings have superior scouts especially on the other side of the Atlantic. Sometimes (not always) these scouts see something in players that other team's scouts don't. And once are on board, we have a system to develop them. Our first round picks don't see NHL ice for 3-4 years. This allows them to develop. And we have leadership guys to mentor them.

Yes, some of it's luck and sometimes it doesn't work out but there is much more to it than that. This is horrible news to the other 29 teams and obviously this guy is a Ducks fan (Brian Burke best GM?).

[Reds4Life 51]

Whatever they want to call it, we get pretty good players with low picks.

And luck is good

[drupha 0]

This guy did pick the Wings in 6 with Hank getting the Smythe, so that's something...

[Yemack 1]

that's why he is writting a stupid column and people who actually know hockey are having fun with Stanely Cup.

[Probert 5 For Fighting 0]

I don't care what the man says, but he clearly looks like a Link-reject from Legend of Zelda.

[tweekvp 0]

This guy did pick the Wings in 6 with Hank getting the Smythe, so that's something...

He also wrote an article naming Burke best GM of 2007/2008.

[Guest LivingtheDream]

I'd have to argue with the definition of luck here. Take the top ten or twenty scorers in the league and then look at their draft pick number. Two show up with stratospheric numbers - Dats and Hank. Both are on the same team. Maybe if one was a Wing I could go with luck, but two? Now add Franzen who if he plays next season like he finished last season? Forget it.

Maybe there isn't any kind of analytics Wings scout use, but they are smart and have a plan and strategy to who they look at. "Luck" is being modest - what it is smart.

Not to mention strong secondary guys like Flip and Huds.

Edited June 22, 2008 by LivingtheDream

[haroldsnepsts 4,826]

So Burke is the best GM in spite of signing Bertuzzi, trading McDonald, losing Penner, and getting nothing for Bryzgalov, yet the Wings are completely lucky for finding Lidstrom, Holmstrom, Zetterberg, Datsyuk late in the draft.

of course there's an element of luck involved. Some kids develop, some don't. But it goes beyond luck when one team has repeatedly found great players late in the draft, all from Europe. It's a slight to Anderson.

I think it's kind of funny that the guy basically dedicates a whole article to trying to downplay the Wings drafting. Seems like a weird subject for a draft related article, unless you have some dislike for the Red Wings, or weird man love for Burke.

[stevie for president 42]

I wonder what his definition of luck is. Thats like saying someone who can count cards is a lucky black jack player. The wings scouts did a great job of making their odds better. It doesnt mean its a flawless system. It doesnt even mean it works more often than not. But more frequently they seem to find a diamond in the rough compared to most other teams. Just like when the Sharks would scout Germany and they found some diamonds in the rough

[HomeNugget 2]

The average draft position of our first line is 212th overall. I think that's more than luck.

[SouthernWingsFan 854]

So Burke is the best GM in spite of signing Bertuzzi, trading McDonald, losing Penner, and getting nothing for Bryzgalov, yet the Wings are completely lucky for finding Lidstrom, Holmstrom, Zetterberg, Datsyuk late in the draft.

of course there's an element of luck involved. Some kids develop, some don't. But it goes beyond luck when one team has repeatedly found great players late in the draft, all from Europe. It's a slight to Anderson.

I think it's kind of funny that the guy basically dedicates a whole article to trying to downplay the Wings drafting. Seems like a weird subject for a draft related article, unless you have some dislike for the Red Wings, or weird man love for Burke.

Quoted for truth.

In any draft in any league, there is a certainly degree of luck involved, as well as timing to where you pick in a draft or if you need a backup plan in case your main guy has been picked by somebody else, and so forth. I'm not even a novice when it comes to drafting in any professional sport, honestly I don't pay much attention to any sports drafts, but when you read of scouts that work for the Red Wings in/out of North America and finding maybe lesser known players that still might definitely be capable in the NHL just about every year, that isn't as much of luck there.

[Barrie 900]

I know there's luck involved, but maybe we should get credit for seeing things in players that other teams don't. Look at all the teams who passed up on Samuelsson, Cleary, Lilja, and Draper. I know a number of people aren't Sammy or Lilly fans, but they did have their part in the last two playoff runs.

[Dabura 12,232]

Someone axe this clown already.

[PaVel DaTsYuK fan13 0]

There's a lot of luck involved, I don't think anyone is refuting that, but to be as consistently lucky with picks like Fedorov, Konstantinov, Zetterberg, Homer, Datsyuk etc. can be attributed to the system. For instance, Cleary was a first round pick who didn't thrive until being signed to the wings. The wings have been to good at the draft to credit it to luck, and I think that the system has more to do with it than anything.

[DaKineMaui 8]

Quoted for truth.

In any draft in any league, there is a certainly degree of luck involved, as well as timing to where you pick in a draft or if you need a backup plan in case your main guy has been picked by somebody else, and so forth. I'm not even a novice when it comes to drafting in any professional sport, honestly I don't pay much attention to any sports drafts, but when you read of scouts that work for the Red Wings in/out of North America and finding maybe lesser known players that still might definitely be capable in the NHL just about every year, that isn't as much of luck there.

As far as any league I can see this guys point though. Also my/his ignorance.

NFL Draft? Any given Saturday I can watch guys for 2, 3 maybe 4 years play their sport.

NBA Draft? Same same. The really good ones are on TV and ESPN all the time.

MLB? Some lightning rod 17 yr old can throw 90+mph (Some of them strikes)? It's a pretty safe bet.

NHL though? I don't get to watch them play in Europe, or Russia as 17 yr olds. Or Canada for that matter. Very few get to watch.

But I do agree - you gotta give it up for the Red Wings scouting budget. That ain't luck. That's on the spreadsheet.

[egroen 384]

I also find it hard to believe another scout was serious when saying the Wings drafting was "dumb luck", as it pretty much calls into question the reason for paying scouts much. All that money the Wings spend on scouts is pretty much wasted?

Why have any for that matter, when a flip of the coin is so much cheaper?

[GMRwings1983 8,804]

A lot of what he's saying is somewhat true.

If the Wings loved Pavel and Hank so much, why didn't they draft them higher? Also, look at some of the stiffs we've drafted in the past. You win some and lose some.

However, I still think the Wings scouts are better than anyone else's, but luck certainly has a lot to do with it. It's the most important thing you can have in life, because often times it will be mistaken for greatness.

Here's to more luck in the future.

[Dabura 12,232]

If the Wings loved Pavel and Hank so much, why didn't they draft them higher?

Because if you're fairly confident that they're not on anyone else's radar, you might as well save them for later rounds. That way, you get some solid picks in the earlier rounds and you get the hidden gems like Hank and Dats.

Luck has a bit to do with it, but ultimately, scouting is meritocratic; you, as a scout, can be better than another scout, and, accordingly, perform better than another scout. If it were mostly a crapshoot, it wouldn't be included on the payroll.

[Nev 1,085]

What was it Gary Player said? "The more I practise, the luckier I get".

Or, as I saw a fighter pilot put it

"Once is an accident. Twice is a coincidence. Three times is a trend".