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Bring Back The Bruise Bros

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2 minutes ago, nyqvististhefuture said:

Wheeler from the athletic has veleno #2 redwing prospect and rasmussen #3 someone should msg him and let him know rasmussen is bigger and a top 10 pick

There have been several prospect rankings in the past two years that have Veleno ahead of Rasmussen. They're all dumb though.

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5 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

There have been several prospect rankings in the past two years that have Veleno ahead of Rasmussen. They're all dumb though.

If your talking draft day yes someone picked top 10 has more upside than someone 20+ ... rasmussen was drafted 3 years ago ...s*** changes 

Example ... Rangers got kravtsov in the top 10 and k’andre miller in the 20s a few years ago .. rather have miller 

 

Edited by nyqvististhefuture

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2 minutes ago, nyqvististhefuture said:

If your talking draft day yes someone picked top 10 has more upside than someone 20+ ... rasmussen was drafted 3 years ago s*** changes 

Seems like such a simple concept...

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12 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

Less... He should just be looking at raw stats. Ignore the actual games.

It's almost like stats are a reflection of the game

I've had this funny AHLTV app on my phone, my home desktop, and my work computer since like 2018. Do you think I should click on it?

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Draft position in relation to potential really only applies within the same draft. A #10 player in a weak draft doesn't necessarily have more potential than a #20 in a deep draft year.

Also, some teams reach and some players drop every year. I wouldn't say a Barret Hayton has more potential than an Evan Bouchard despite the fact they were drafted several spots apart.

I think its even more unfair to compare players' "potential" based on draft position when they were drafted different years. 

All that said, I think this whole argument is pointless and I hope Veleno and Moose both turn into top 6 forwards. I really don't give a **** which one ends up better eventually, or which one has more "potential" now.

Edited by Neomaxizoomdweebie

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1 minute ago, Neomaxizoomdweebie said:

Draft position in relation to potential really only applies within the same draft. A #10 player in a weak draft doesn't necessarily have more potential than a #20 in a deep draft year.

That assumes the fact that you think the two draft classes are radically different.

They're not. Most draft classes have more in common than they have different. There's players found late who are good and players who are found early who are bad in every draft. "This draft is epic deep" is hype talk BS pretty much every year, and it often just means McDavid AND Eichel are in the same draft and the statement is irrelevant to the rest of the players in it.

I very seriously think player draft position would not vary much if transplanted to a different year, unless you're speaking with hindsight in mind.

9 minutes ago, Neomaxizoomdweebie said:

Also, some teams reach and some players drop every year. I wouldn't say a Barret Hayton has more potential than an Evan Bouchard despite the fact they were drafted several positions.

Reaching is a fan concocted myth IMHO. It's only reaching based on your POV and the semi-accurate information you've been fed. Teams have their own lists and rankings that don't at all match the ones you've been spammed with all season. So what you perceive as a reach probably isn't one to the team making the pick.

Later in the draft position likely starts to take on a slightly bigger role. Only because it's a total crap shoot in the later rounds 90% of the time, so teams become slightly more concerned with drafting for need.

19 minutes ago, Neomaxizoomdweebie said:

I think its even more unfair to compare players' "potential" based on draft position when they were drafted different years.

Completely disagree. Most of us do it knowingly or unknowingly everyday.

While somewhat variable, there is a very clear different set of expectations for players in every draft round. It becomes less prominent in the late rounds and hyper prominent in the 1st round. Fans clearly expect a player drafted top3 to possibly be generational. Top10 hopefully high level impact players. Later 1st maybe a top6er or top4 Dman. 2nd round maybe a top6 or bottom6. And it cascades down from there.

This set of expectations doesn't seem to vary much year to year despite some drafts being quote on quote deep, and its based on everyone's unconscious comparison of players in this draft to players in former drafts. And It's mostly accurate. Not only do top5 guys have an extremely higher rate of success, they also overwhelming score more points than guys from later rounds.

37 minutes ago, Neomaxizoomdweebie said:

All that said, I think this whole argument is pointless and I hope Veleno and Moose both turn into top 6 forwards. I really don't give a **** which one ends up better.

But bickering is fun and you can't win if you don't play. Pacifists always lose. 

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6 hours ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

It's almost like stats are a reflection of the game

I've had this funny AHLTV app on my phone, my home desktop, and my work computer since like 2018. Do you think I should click on it?

I'm so confused, why is Michael Rasmussen the 1C in GR if stats don't mean much and paying attention to the games is what matters?  Like, is Ben Simon making Rasmussen the top center (instead of Veleno) because he also doesn't watch the games he's coaching? 

Fact is that Ras was considered a better player when he was drafted, made the NHL earlier, has more NHL points, has more AHL points per game, AND has the top center role in GR.

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9 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

I'm so confused, why is Michael Rasmussen the 1C in GR if stats don't mean much and paying attention to the games is what matters?  Like, is Ben Simon making Rasmussen the top center (instead of Veleno) because he also doesn't watch the games he's coaching? 

Fact is that Ras was considered a better player when he was drafted, made the NHL earlier, has more NHL points, has more AHL points per game, AND has the top center role in GR.

I'd like to scoot on down to GR and knock that Ben Simon around I tell ya what. Not playing top 10 pick future 2C Veleno in favor of future 3rd line winger shoulda been drafted 15 picks lower Rasmussen? Its objectionable way outta line malarchy. Does this guy need glasses to see velenos doing all the heavy lifting out there or something? Cause id like to put my own pair of knuckles under that hombres chin bone if u catch my drift there fella. 

 

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8 hours ago, Neomaxizoomdweebie said:

All that said, I think this whole argument is pointless and I hope Veleno and Moose both turn into top 6 forwards. I really don't give a **** which one ends up better eventually, or which one has more "potential" now.

This. I "think" Veleno has more upside based on what I've seen of both players thus far. However, if Rasmussen ends up the better player long term, I won't care, as long as both are quality players (not busts).

4 hours ago, kipwinger said:

I'm so confused, why is Michael Rasmussen the 1C in GR if stats don't mean much and paying attention to the games is what matters?  Like, is Ben Simon making Rasmussen the top center (instead of Veleno) because he also doesn't watch the games he's coaching? 

Fact is that Ras was considered a better player when he was drafted, made the NHL earlier, has more NHL points, has more AHL points per game, AND has the top center role in GR.

It's amazing how many people spew bulls*** online without having any idea what they're talking about. Watch a game. You'll see that Rasmussen and Veleno get utilized very similarly. There's talk about the AHL finally tracking TOI as early as next season. Too bad it wasn't this season, because I'm sure we'd see very similar minutes for these two guys. Also, like I mentioned previously, Veleno plays both special teams, while Ras only plays power-play.

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6 hours ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

I'd like to scoot on down to GR and knock that Ben Simon around I tell ya what. Not playing top 10 pick future 2C Veleno in favor of future 3rd line winger shoulda been drafted 15 picks lower Rasmussen? Its objectionable way outta line malarchy. Does this guy need glasses to see velenos doing all the heavy lifting out there or something? Cause id like to put my own pair of knuckles under that hombres chin bone if u catch my drift there fella. 

 

He should probably watch more Griffins games. 

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it´s a bit annoying to be honest. Unfortunately CRL has a knack for asking provocative questions (some dumb as well) and twisting the things people say, which just causes endless repetitions.

something to think about: Rasmussen already has a year of NHL experience and a body ready for the man´s game. In the moment he might be the better player just through that. In the future?  f*ck knows

and yes, a #10 pick is not assured to become the better player than any other first round selection in his draft class. After the first 6-7 picks it´s more or less hoping to be right imo.

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1 hour ago, ely s said:

it´s a bit annoying to be honest. Unfortunately CRL has a knack for asking provocative questions (some dumb as well) and twisting the things people say, which just causes endless repetitions.

something to think about: Rasmussen already has a year of NHL experience and a body ready for the man´s game. In the moment he might be the better player just through that. In the future?  f*ck knows

and yes, a #10 pick is not assured to become the better player than any other first round selection in his draft class. After the first 6-7 picks it´s more or less hoping to be right imo.

Nobody said that.  I don't think anyone, including CRL, thinks that a 10 pick is "assured" or "guaranteed" to be better than anyone else.  But that's true for the 1st overall as well.  There are no guarantees.  Busts happen. 

It's a probability based evaluation. If you looked at all the 10th overall picks, in all the various pro sports leagues over the years, and compared them to the 30th overall picks the group of higher drafted players will generally have performed better.

Of course there are exceptions, but they're rare.  Suggesting that draft rankings aren't an indication of talent because David Pastrnak turned out better than Nick Ritchie (for example) is dumb. Because why stop there?  Pavel Datsyuk is better than Vincent Lecavalier, but anybody who thinks the 171st pick is even close to as likely to succeed as the 1st overall is delusional. 

The real question then becomes, is there reason to think Veleno and Rasmussen are the exceptions and not the rule?  Anyone who says "yes" better have some pretty compelling evidence to think so. Instead,  based on all the information available to this point you'd be dumb to bet on it because Rasmussen has consistently been the better player.  And it's that difference in ability, track record, and upside, that made Rasmussen the 10th overall and Veleno the 30th overall.

Edited by kipwinger

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2 hours ago, The 91 of Ryans said:

Battle of the Neck Beards

Pretty Epic

Ima knock ya down guy

1 hour ago, ely s said:

it´s a bit annoying to be honest. Unfortunately CRL has a knack for asking provocative questions (some dumb as well) and twisting the things people say, which just causes endless repetitions.

"CRL has a knack for presenting uncomfortable truths that don't automatically align with my worldview". You're welcome to call me out on any fallacious arguments I present. So far you haven't.

1 hour ago, ely s said:

something to think about: Rasmussen already has a year of NHL experience and a body ready for the man´s game. In the moment he might be the better player just through that. In the future?  f*ck knows

The thing is, what I'm presenting isn't at all provocative. I'm arguing a top10 draft pick - who's performing better than a player drafted top30 right now - has more potential. Unless you incorporate prior notions or individual biases, this is a pretty easy argument for me to stand on. Low hanging fruit if you will. Not at all as ambitious as my Zadina endeavors.

1 hour ago, ely s said:

and yes, a #10 pick is not assured to become the better player than any other first round selection in his draft class. After the first 6-7 picks it´s more or less hoping to be right imo.

No draft pick is assured. Even the #1 isn't assured. And you know that. That's not what anyone is suggesting.

However statistically Rasmussen's draft pedigree does suggest he has a better shot than Veleno at NHL success.

chart51.jpg

These trend lines also match for points produced by round. So not only is Rasmussen likely to play about 15% - 20% more games than Veleno. He's also likely to score about 15% - 20% more points over the course of their careers.

Couple that with the success rate both are displaying in the AHL this year and it's easy to see why a gambling man would bet on Rasmussen and not Veleno.

 

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25 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

Nobody said that.  I don't think anyone, including CRL, thinks that a 10 pick is "assured" or "guaranteed" to be better than anyone else.  But that's true for the 1st overall as well.  There are no guarantees.  Busts happen. 

It's a probability based evaluation. If you looked at all the 10th overall picks, in all the various pro sports leagues over the years, and compared them to the 30th overall picks the group of higher drafted players will generally have performed better.

Of course there are exceptions, but they're rare.  Suggesting that draft rankings aren't an indication of talent because David Pastrnak turned out better than Nick Ritchie (for example) is dumb. Because why stop there?  Pavel Datsyuk is better than Vincent Lecavalier, but anybody who thinks the 171st pick is even close to as likely to succeed as the 1st overall is delusional. 

The real question then becomes, is there reason to think Veleno and Rasmussen are the exceptions and not the rule?  Anyone who says "yes" better have some pretty compelling evidence to think so. Instead,  based on all the information available to this point you'd be dumb to bet on it because Rasmussen has consistently been the better player.  And it's that difference in ability, track record, and upside, that made Rasmussen the 10th overall and Veleno the 30th overall.

I never said anything about draft rankings not being an indication, I said it's not a guarantee. Which is why I pointed to the many examples of player X, drafted in the 20's-30's being better than play Y, drafted top 10. I've never in any way implied that lower drafted players are as likely, or more likely to succeed than higher drafted players.

Both Scott Wheeler and Max Bultman of the Athletic had Veleno ranked one spot higher than Rasmussen in their recent rankings (past month). I suggest that I think Veleno will be the better player long-term, and get attacked, because "RaSmUsSeN hAs MoRe PoInTs"... I also say that it's entirely possible that Rasmussen "could" end up the better player long-term. I just want both to succeed. Others believe that's impossible, because "RaSmUsSeN iS sO bIg AnD sTrOnG"...

6 minutes ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

Couple that with the success rate both are displaying in the AHL this year and it's easy to see why a gambling man would bet on Rasmussen and not Veleno.

Go ahead and bet on Rasmussen. No one cares. Just quit bitching and complaining when someone bets on Veleno.

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4 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

I never said anything about draft rankings not being an indication, I said it's not a guarantee. Which is why I pointed to the many examples of player X, drafted in the 20's-30's being better than play Y, drafted top 10. I've never in any way implied that lower drafted players are as likely, or more likely to succeed than higher drafted players.

Your arguing in favor of gamblers fallacy. Sure Veleno could be better than Rasmussen, but chances are he's not. And comparing both their 1st pro seasons suggest he's not. And comparing both's current seasons suggests he's not.

7 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

Both Scott Wheeler and Max Bultman of the Athletic had Veleno ranked one spot higher than Rasmussen in their recent rankings (past month). I suggest that I think Veleno will be the better player long-term, and get attacked, because "RaSmUsSeN hAs MoRe PoInTs"... I also say that it's entirely possible that Rasmussen "could" end up the better player long-term. I just want both to succeed. Others believe that's impossible, because "RaSmUsSeN iS sO bIg AnD sTrOnG"...

I reckon if we had you rank prospects every year and publish it you would probably have the same success rate as whoever the hell Wheeler and Bultman are. Take that as a true compliment if you like.

Rasmussen IS bigger and stronger, and DOES have quite a few more points. No amount of mockery changes that.

12 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

Go ahead and bet on Rasmussen. No one cares. Just quit bitching and complaining when someone bets on Veleno.

Nobody is bitching and complaining except you with this very statement. If you don't want to engage me you don't have to. You can bow out any time.

15 minutes ago, The 91 of Ryans said:

Pfffft Maybe I trip on the neck beard

 

Only thing you'll be tripping on is leg sweeps friend. so many leg sweeps you'll be begging me for an uppercut.

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20 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

I never said anything about draft rankings not being an indication, I said it's not a guarantee. Which is why I pointed to the many examples of player X, drafted in the 20's-30's being better than play Y, drafted top 10. I've never in any way implied that lower drafted players are as likely, or more likely to succeed than higher drafted players.

Both Scott Wheeler and Max Bultman of the Athletic had Veleno ranked one spot higher than Rasmussen in their recent rankings (past month). I suggest that I think Veleno will be the better player long-term, and get attacked, because "RaSmUsSeN hAs MoRe PoInTs"... I also say that it's entirely possible that Rasmussen "could" end up the better player long-term. I just want both to succeed. Others believe that's impossible, because "RaSmUsSeN iS sO bIg AnD sTrOnG"...

Go ahead and bet on Rasmussen. No one cares. Just quit bitching and complaining when someone bets on Veleno.

You're not getting "attacked" so quit acting like a p*ssy.  You're on a hockey discussion board, you made a statement based on pretty flimsy evidence, and you got called on it.  Stop posting if you don't like people disagreeing with you, or better yet, grow up.

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3 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

You're not getting "attacked" so quit acting like a p*ssy.  You're on a hockey discussion board, you made a statement based on pretty flimsy evidence, and you got called on it.  Stop posting if you don't like people disagreeing with you, or better yet, grow up.

Lol typical kip... Avoid responding to an entire post by picking out, and misrepresenting a single word.

You're an angry individual and I feel bad for you. You're obviously going through some s***, but there's no need to take it out on people on a "hockey discussion board". You're the one that needs to "grow up" pal.

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