2019 Draft

[kipwinger 8,529]

2 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

I'd still go with best player available, unless it's a situation where we think we can trade back, still get our guy, plus add other assets. I think we're in need of a top six right-handed winger as much as we're in need of a top six center. Of course, I don't see center as much of a glaring issue as you, and I also know that you don't put as much stock into handedness as I do. I'd consider trading back if we ended up in the 2 slot. If a team a spot or two behind us in the draft are willing to pay a premium to get Kakko, I'd be more than happy with Cozens plus another late 1st, early 2nd, or top prospect.

You beat the drum on this BPA thing all the time and it seems as if you believe there's a clear separation between each and every player in the draft.  There isn't.  Cozens, or instance, is not "better" than Dach or vice versa.  When players are bunched together in terms of talent, and you can be equally sure of getting a quality winger, center, defenseman, you'd be dumb NOT to pick players that fit your organizational needs.  None of which is to say you should chase players, or go off the board, just to fill a need.  But it's pretty clear that players 3-10 in this year's draft are all roughly as talented as one another.  So why take a guy you think projects as a top six winger when we're already flush with top six wingers?  And while I DO think we need better center depth, I think any organization should take centers (all things being equal) because they're more valuable than wingers or defensemen.  Again, don't chase anyone, but if you have the choice between a center, a winger, and a defender and they're all roughly as talented as one another you're dumb if you don't take the center. 

[krsmith17 7,191]

2 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

You beat the drum on this BPA thing all the time and it seems as if you believe there's a clear separation between each and every player in the draft.  There isn't.  Cozens, or instance, is not "better" than Dach or vice versa.  When players are bunched together in terms of talent, and you can be equally sure of getting a quality winger, center, defenseman, you'd be dumb NOT to pick players that fit your organizational needs.  None of which is to say you should chase players, or go off the board, just to fill a need.  But it's pretty clear that players 3-10 in this year's draft are all roughly as talented as one another.  So why take a guy you think projects as a top six winger when we're already flush with top six wingers?  And while I DO think we need better center depth, I think any organization should take centers (all things being equal) because they're more valuable than wingers or defensemen.  Again, don't chase anyone, but if you have the choice between a center, a winger, and a defender and they're all roughly as talented as one another you're dumb if you don't take the center. 

You can keep saying "you'd be dumb to...", "you're dumb if...", or whatever, but nothing you're saying is fact. It's just your opinion, the philosophy you would use if you were building a team. You think centers are far more important than wingers. I disagree. Give me the better player, regardless of position. There are quite a few teams that best player' is their top line winger, not the center.

Regarding BPA, that's subjective as well. Every single person is going to have a different list. You don't think Cozens is or projects to be a better player than Dach? I disagree. Maybe the Wings brass would disagree as well. Maybe they think Dach is better. Who knows. Point is, if I were running the draft (I would have a lot more information than I have now, but with the limited information I do have), I'd take Cozens over Dach, Zegras, Krebs, Newhook or Turcotte.

I don't think we have a clear organizational need right now. However, I'd argue that an elite right-handed winger is more important to this team than an elite center right now. Who are the top six, or better yet clear-cut top line wingers that we have? Zadina is still a question mark, although I think he'll get there. Mantha is the only one I'd consider a top line winger, and most would disagree with that. The only elite (or borderline elite) player we have right now is Larkin, and he's a center. We don't have a single right-handed winger in the entire system that projects to be top six. That's an organizational weakness in my opinion.

[kipwinger 8,529]

29 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

You can keep saying "you'd be dumb to...", "you're dumb if...", or whatever, but nothing you're saying is fact. It's just your opinion, the philosophy you would use if you were building a team. You think centers are far more important than wingers. I disagree. Give me the better player, regardless of position. There are quite a few teams that best player' is their top line winger, not the center.

Regarding BPA, that's subjective as well. Every single person is going to have a different list. You don't think Cozens is or projects to be a better player than Dach? I disagree. Maybe the Wings brass would disagree as well. Maybe they think Dach is better. Who knows. Point is, if I were running the draft (I would have a lot more information than I have now, but with the limited information I do have), I'd take Cozens over Dach, Zegras, Krebs, Newhook or Turcotte.

I don't think we have a clear organizational need right now. However, I'd argue that an elite right-handed winger is more important to this team than an elite center right now. Who are the top six, or better yet clear-cut top line wingers that we have? Zadina is still a question mark, although I think he'll get there. Mantha is the only one I'd consider a top line winger, and most would disagree with that. The only elite (or borderline elite) player we have right now is Larkin, and he's a center. We don't have a single right-handed winger in the entire system that projects to be top six. That's an organizational weakness in my opinion.

Opinions can be dumb.  Facts can't.  You fall back on "opinion" all the time as if that's a trump card.  Frequently opinions are stupid. Or misinformed.  Or are the result of faulty reasoning.  So the idea that subjectivity is somehow cover for concluding stupid sh*t is itself faulty thinking. 

Now, onto the second part.  Our top six winger options going forward are Mantha, AA, Zadina, Bert, and Rasmussen.  Maybe Berggren or Svech as well, but that's probably a stretch at this point.  Our top six centers right now are Larkin and maybe Veleno.  If Veleno turns out to be as good as Larkin, and that's a big if, we might be ok at center.  But that's asking a lot out of a 30th overall pick who's had problems consistently scoring in the CHL's highest scoring league.

You're obsessed with handedness.  Let's just say it's SUPER important to have a right handed shooter (aside from Vanek, Glendening, Frk, Green, Jensen, Hronek, Saarijarvi) then isn't it equally possible to draft...I dunno...a right shot center?  When you bemoan the lack of right-shot players, it seems like what you're really complaining about is that we don't have ELITE right shot players.  And I'd agree, we need more elite players.  And if you look around the league, most of your elite, game changing, forwards are centers.  Which is my whole f*cking point. 

Why are centers so important you might ask?  Here's why.  They touch the puck more often than wingers.  So if they're bad it's glaring, and if they're good its an advantage.  They also take draws.  They also play down the middle, so there are twice as many options (and therefore things to consider) during transition.  Centers have to score their own goals, as well as set up their shooters (in general).  This is why wingers generally have fewer assists than centers, because the center is doing all the work to create the winger's scoring chance.  Wingers also have fewer things to do in the offensive zone because they work off the wall so all their effort is going in one direction as opposed to two, centers have to read the ice in two directions and pick the developing play appropriately.  Centers also have more defensive responsibility than wingers in basically every single pro system.  Which is why the Selke for best defensive forward typically goes to an elite center and almost never a winger.  

If you'd rather have an elite winger than an elite center, which is like...totally your opinion bro...then you care more about being right than thinking intelligently. 

[The 91 of Ryans 3,015]

1 hour ago, kipwinger said:

You beat the drum on this BPA thing all the time and it seems as if you believe there's a clear separation between each and every player in the draft.  There isn't.  Cozens, or instance, is not "better" than Dach or vice versa.  When players are bunched together in terms of talent, and you can be equally sure of getting a quality winger, center, defenseman, you'd be dumb NOT to pick players that fit your organizational needs.  None of which is to say you should chase players, or go off the board, just to fill a need.  But it's pretty clear that players 3-10 in this year's draft are all roughly as talented as one another.  So why take a guy you think projects as a top six winger when we're already flush with top six wingers?  And while I DO think we need better center depth, I think any organization should take centers (all things being equal) because they're more valuable than wingers or defensemen.  Again, don't chase anyone, but if you have the choice between a center, a winger, and a defender and they're all roughly as talented as one another you're dumb if you don't take the center. 

As with any team that's only had 2 top 10 picks since the older George Bush was president, there is (arguably) a need at every position. IMO this team has no elite wingers, centers, or d men in the system and no superstars. 9 times out of ten I'm a BPA guy. In the Wings current state I'm BPA 11 times out of 10. But that's just me. I'll leave it to Wright and co. to determine who those players are. As far as the bolded part, and I know this is retro-analysis, but try telling this to Arizona (Strome) and Toronto (Marner). 

[krsmith17 7,191]

On ‎1‎/‎31‎/‎2019 at 2:08 PM, kipwinger said:

Opinions can be dumb.  Facts can't.  You fall back on "opinion" all the time as if that's a trump card.  Frequently opinions are stupid. Or misinformed.  Or are the result of faulty reasoning.  So the idea that subjectivity is somehow cover for concluding stupid sh*t is itself faulty thinking. 

Now, onto the second part.  Our top six winger options going forward are Mantha, AA, Zadina, Bert, and Rasmussen.  Maybe Berggren or Svech as well, but that's probably a stretch at this point.  Our top six centers right now are Larkin and maybe Veleno.  If Veleno turns out to be as good as Larkin, and that's a big if, we might be ok at center.  But that's asking a lot out of a 30th overall pick who's had problems consistently scoring in the CHL's highest scoring league.

You're obsessed with handedness.  Let's just say it's SUPER important to have a right handed shooter (aside from Vanek, Glendening, Frk, Green, Jensen, Hronek, Saarijarvi) then isn't it equally possible to draft...I dunno...a right shot center?  When you bemoan the lack of right-shot players, it seems like what you're really complaining about is that we don't have ELITE right shot players.  And I'd agree, we need more elite players.  And if you look around the league, most of your elite, game changing, forwards are centers.  Which is my whole f*cking point. 

Why are centers so important you might ask?  Here's why.  They touch the puck more often than wingers.  So if they're bad it's glaring, and if they're good its an advantage.  They also take draws.  They also play down the middle, so there are twice as many options (and therefore things to consider) during transition.  Centers have to score their own goals, as well as set up their shooters (in general).  This is why wingers generally have fewer assists than centers, because the center is doing all the work to create the winger's scoring chance.  Wingers also have fewer things to do in the offensive zone because they work off the wall so all their effort is going in one direction as opposed to two, centers have to read the ice in two directions and pick the developing play appropriately.  Centers also have more defensive responsibility than wingers in basically every single pro system.  Which is why the Selke for best defensive forward typically goes to an elite center and almost never a winger.  

If you'd rather have an elite winger than an elite center, which is like...totally your opinion bro...then you care more about being right than thinking intelligently. 

That's a lot of talk about opinion and facts for someone who oftentimes tries to pass his opinion off as fact. Just because you believe that players 3-10 in this year's draft are equal, doesn't make it a fact. It's your opinion. All things being equal, I agree that we should take the center. However, all things aren't equal in players 3-10. Far from it.

Now, onto the second part... I specifically said top line, not top six because I knew you would try to pass some of them off as top six wingers, when in reality, most of them probably aren't either on a good team.

Max Bultman of The Athletic recently wrote a great article (recommend) based on Dom Luszczyszyn's model, projecting where players across the league will be in the 2021-22 season.

https://theathletic.com/774488/2019/01/18/how-the-red-wings-can-build-a-contender-during-dylan-larkins-prime/

AverageContender.img

Of course it's not an exact science, but it seems at least somewhat accurate to me. As you can see, we don't have a single winger that projects to be a top line winger (right-handed or not). Larkin is considered borderline elite. I think Larkin will be elite, if he's given some help on his wings in the coming years.

There's also a hole in that 2C slot, but I believe Veleno will get there. I also think it's reasonable to believe that one of Zadina or Mantha could bump up to the 1LW/RW slot. Rasmussen will likely be a middle six winger.

You mention Vanek (done after this season), Frk (likely done after this season), Glendening (bottom six grinder) and four defensemen as top six right-handed shooters... Not a single right-handed shot in the top six. Of course you'll downplay the importance of having shots opened up on both sides of the ice, but the FACT is, it does factor into scoring, especially on the power-play.

I don't think we need an elite winger more than an elite center. I just think we already have an elite center, and zero elite wingers.

If the Red Wings brass feel that Cozens is the best player on the board when they're up to draft, they'll take him. They've proven time and time again over the past several years that they'll take the player they believe to be the best at the time, regardless of position. Besides, Cozens has played plenty center, and if they want to groom him as a center, they will. If they can convert Jonathan Ericsson from a C/W to a D, I'm sure they can convert a C/W into a fulltime C...

Edited September 25, 2019 by krsmith17

[krsmith17 7,191]

10 minutes ago, The 91 of Ryans said:

As with any team that's only had 2 top 10 picks since the older George Bush was president, there is (arguably) a need at every position. IMO this team has no elite wingers, centers, or d men in the system and no superstars. 9 times out of ten I'm a BPA guy. In the Wings current state I'm BPA 11 times out of 10. But that's just me. I'll leave it to Wright and co. to determine who those players are. As far as the bolded part, and I know this is retro-analysis, but try telling this to Arizona (Strome) and Toronto (Marner). 

Marner, the elite winger that controls the play, drives possession, leads his team in assists, etc. etc. But how can he be the Leafs best player? He doesn't even take face-offs...

How about Kucherov. Another elite winger that is far and away his teams best player. Ovechkin, Wheeler, Kane, Gaudreau, Rantanen, Pastrnak, Panarin, Stone... All wingers that are arguably the best players on their respective teams that are the driving force behind their teams' success...

[kipwinger 8,529]

21 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

That's a lot of talk about opinion and facts for someone who oftentimes tries to pass his opinion off as fact. Just because you believe that players 3-10 in this year's draft are equal, doesn't make it a fact. It's your opinion. All things being equal, I agree that we should take the center. However, all things aren't equal in players 3-10. Far from it.

Now, onto the second part... I specifically said top line, not top six because I knew you would try to pass some of them off as top six wingers, when in reality, most of them probably aren't either on a good team.

Max Bultman of The Athletic recently wrote a great article (recommend) based on Dom Luszczyszyn's model, projecting where players across the league will be in the 2021-22 season.

https://theathletic.com/774488/2019/01/18/how-the-red-wings-can-build-a-contender-during-dylan-larkins-prime/

Of course it's not an exact science, but it seems at least somewhat accurate to me. As you can see, we don't have a single winger that projects to be a top line winger (right-handed or not). Larkin is considered borderline elite. I think Larkin will be elite, if he's given some help on his wings in the coming years.

There's also a hole in that 2C slot, but I believe Veleno will get there. I also think it's reasonable to believe that one of Zadina or Mantha could bump up to the 1LW/RW slot. Rasmussen will likely be a middle six winger.

You mention Vanek (done after this season), Frk (likely done after this season), Glendening (bottom six grinder) and four defensemen as top six right-handed shooters... Not a single right-handed shot in the top six. Of course you'll downplay the importance of having shots opened up on both sides of the ice, but the FACT is, it does factor into scoring, especially on the power-play.

I don't think we need an elite winger more than an elite center. I just think we already have an elite center, and zero elite wingers.

If the Red Wings brass feel that Cozens is the best player on the board when they're up to draft, they'll take him. They've proven time and time again over the past several years that they'll take the player they believe to be the best at the time, regardless of position. Besides, Cozens has played plenty center, and if they want to groom him as a center, they will. If they can convert Jonathan Ericsson from a C/W to a D, I'm sure they can convert a C/W into a fulltime C...

Wait, you're taking the model as gospel as it pertains to our wingers but then conveniently ignore it when it come to Veleno?  That's pretty selective.  If you're willing to "believe" Veleno will become a 2C then why not "believe" Zadina will be a top line winger?  Or Mantha for that matter.  You've been telling us for 2 years how Mantha can be elite with the right linemates, the right opportunity, blah, blah, blah but now suddenly he doesn't have that upside because it contradicts something else you said?  Lame.  It's funny how you "believe" different things about different players at different times when it's convenient for your argument.  I remember when you "believed" Brendan Smith was a "dynamic offensive defenseman".  I remember when you "believed" Jurco was just getting a raw deal from the coaches. 

 

[kipwinger 8,529]

2 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

Marner, the elite winger that controls the play, drives possession, leads his team in assists, etc. etc. But how can he be the Leafs best player? He doesn't even take face-offs...

How about Kucherov. Another elite winger that is far and away his teams best player. Ovechkin, Wheeler, Kane, Gaudreau, Rantanen, Pastrnak, Panarin, Stone... All wingers that are arguably the best players on their respective teams that are the driving force behind their teams' success...

Are we just naming good players now?  I'll stack McDavid, Crosby, Matthews, Stamkos, Seguin, Kopitar, Malkin, McKinnon, Barkov, and Eichel up against that list any day.  Nobody is saying wingers can't score.  That's their whole f*cking job.  I'm saying centers are more important to a team's success for the reasons I listed above. 

Also, suggesting that Mitch Marner is the best player on the Leafs because he's leading the team in points for half a season is the silliest, most you, thing imaginable.  If Nylander has the team lead in points for half of next season will he be their best player?  Or will it depend on whatever argument you're trying to make at the time. 

[kipwinger 8,529]

Here's the other thing, you're completely making this stuff up as you go anyway.  You've already said that you want BPA right?  Well Bob McKenzie and NHL central scouting have ranked Kirby Dach ahead of Cozens.  So if you really believe the b.s. you spout you SHOULD prefer we draft Dach right?  I mean, he's clearly the BPA between the two according to some fairly credible sources. Only Pronman (so far) has Cozens ahead of Dach in mid-season rankings. The Draft Analyst website has Zegras and Turcotte, both centers, ahead of Cozens AND Dach.  So why do you want a winger so bad if you think BPA is the way to go?

 

Edited January 31, 2019 by kipwinger

[Neomaxizoomdweebie 3,083]

On 1/28/2019 at 4:59 AM, Dabura said:

Hughes unanimous No. 1 in look at first round of 2019 Draft [NHL.com]

 

So theyre assuming we get screwed on draft position again?

[krsmith17 7,191]

16 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

Wait, you're taking the model as gospel as it pertains to our wingers but then conveniently ignore it when it come to Veleno?  That's pretty selective.  If you're willing to "believe" Veleno will become a 2C then why not "believe" Zadina will be a top line winger?  Or Mantha for that matter.  You've been telling us for 2 years how Mantha can be elite with the right linemates, the right opportunity, blah, blah, blah but now suddenly he doesn't have that upside because it contradicts something else you said?  Lame.  It's funny how you "believe" different things about different players at different times when it's convenient for your argument.  I remember when you "believed" Brendan Smith was a "dynamic offensive defenseman".  I remember when you "believed" Jurco was just getting a raw deal from the coaches. 

LOL learn how to read. I'm not taking any of that model as gospel... I said I believe that Veleno will become a 2C and I also believe that one of Zadina or Mantha will become a top line winger. Who knows, maybe both will. The point remains, we have a bigger hole on the wing than at center in my opinion. Basically, I think it's more likely that Veleno exceeds expectations and becomes a 2C, than Zadina, Mantha, Bertuzzi and Athanasiou all exceed expectations...

You're right, I did believe Brendan Smith was a dynamic offensive defenseman. I was wrong. So what? I also think Veleno will be a very good, two-way, second line center. Maybe I'm wrong there as well. What's your point?

I believe and still do believe Jurco got a raw deal early in his career. Can we please discuss that some more?... I don't think it's been discussed enough over the past 3 years...

13 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

Are we just naming good players now?  I'll stack McDavid, Crosby, Matthews, Stamkos, Seguin, Kopitar, Malkin, McKinnon, Barkov, and Eichel up against that list any day.  Nobody is saying wingers can't score.  That's their whole f*cking job.  I'm saying centers are more important to a team's success for the reasons I listed above. 

Also, suggesting that Mitch Marner is the best player on the Leafs because he's leading the team in points for half a season is the silliest, most you, thing imaginable.  If Nylander has the team lead in points for half of next season will he be their best player?  Or will it depend on whatever argument you're trying to make at the time. 

No, we're not just naming good players. We're illustrating that the center is not always the best player on the team, nor does he have to be for the team to be successful. Stamkos is not the best player on the team. He's basically our Larkin and maybe Kucherov could be our Zadina (hopefully).

Centers are the most important player on the team, but yet 3 of the last 6 Hart winners were wingers (2 were centers), and 3 of the last 6 Conn Smythe winners were wingers (2 were centers)...

I'm not basing who I believe is the better player on this one season. I truly do believe that Marner is the best player on the Leafs roster. You can disagree. But do you disagree with all 9 of the other wingers that I suggested are the best player on their respective teams? Probably, because that would be the silliest, most you, thing imaginable...

[HoweFan 74]

Not much of a stats guy other than goals and assists. Don’t want Podkolsin cause I can’t pronounce his name.  Not gonna trade Rasmussen for that Pulwhatever guy from Edmonton either. Cousins nd Dach still top my list

[krsmith17 7,191]

21 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

Here's the other thing, you're completely making this stuff up as you go anyway.  You've already said that you want BPA right?  Well Bob McKenzie and NHL central scouting have ranked Kirby Dach ahead of Cozens.  So if you really believe the b.s. you spout you SHOULD prefer we draft Dach right?  I mean, he's clearly the BPA between the two according to some fairly credible sources. Only Pronman (so far) has Cozens ahead of Dach in mid-season rankings. The Draft Analyst website has Zegras and Turcotte, both centers, ahead of Cozens AND Dach.  So why do you want a winger so bad if you think BPA is the way to go?

Jesus Christ dude... I put a lot of stock into what the draft analysts and scouts say, but it's not the only determining factor. Just because the Bobfather has Dach ahead of Cozens, doesn't mean I have to... I think Cozens and Dach are fairly close, but personally "I" like Cozens better because of his skating ability (one of, if not the best in the draft). Dach's skating appears to be lacking, and the way the league is going, for that reason alone (not that it's the only one), I'd prefer Cozens.

Get over yourself. We don't have to agree, and you don't have to attempt to talk down on people that have a differing opinion...

#BellLetsTalk

[kipwinger 8,529]

4 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

LOL learn how to read. I'm not taking any of that model as gospel... I said I believe that Veleno will become a 2C and I also believe that one of Zadina or Mantha will become a top line winger. Who knows, maybe both will. The point remains, we have a bigger hole on the wing than at center in my opinion. Basically, I think it's more likely that Veleno exceeds expectations and becomes a 2C, than Zadina, Mantha, Bertuzzi and Athanasiou all exceed expectations...

You're right, I did believe Brendan Smith was a dynamic offensive defenseman. I was wrong. So what? I also think Veleno will be a very good, two-way, second line center. Maybe I'm wrong there as well. What's your point?

I believe and still do believe Jurco got a raw deal early in his career. Can we please discuss that some more?... I don't think it's been discussed enough over the past 3 years...

No, we're not just naming good players. We're illustrating that the center is not always the best player on the team, nor does he have to be for the team to be successful. Stamkos is not the best player on the team. He's basically our Larkin and maybe Kucherov could be our Zadina (hopefully).

Centers are the most important player on the team, but yet 3 of the last 6 Hart winners were wingers (2 were centers), and 3 of the last 6 Conn Smythe winners were wingers (2 were centers)...

I'm not basing who I believe is the better player on this one season. I truly do believe that Marner is the best player on the Leafs roster. You can disagree. But do you disagree with all 9 of the other wingers that I suggested are the best player on their respective teams? Probably, because that would be the silliest, most you, thing imaginable...

Your leaps of logic are staggering.  Nobody is saying ALL of Mantha, Zadina, Bertuzzi, and AA need to exceed expectations in order to have top line wingers.  Only two of them do.  And secondly, AA is on pace for 30 goals, Mantha and Bertuzzi are both on pace for 20...in the NHL.  So I'd say they've pretty clearly already established that they can produce at top line levels.  So really only Zadina needs to develop accordingly in order for us to have top end wingers for our top two lines. 

Secondly, of the list you provided only a couple of those guys are definitely the best players on their teams.  Ratanen is probably not better than MacKinnon.  Pastrnak is probably not better than Bergeron or Marchand. Marner is probably not better than Matthews or Tavares.  I'll give you the rest.  But here's the thing, only two of those guys have won a Cup.  Why?  Because it's probably not good if the best players on your team are wingers.  Duh.

[kipwinger 8,529]

2 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

Jesus Christ dude... I put a lot of stock into what the draft analysts and scouts say, but it's not the only determining factor. Just because the Bobfather has Dach ahead of Cozens, doesn't mean I have to... I think Cozens and Dach are fairly close, but personally "I" like Cozens better because of his skating ability (one of, if not the best in the draft). Dach's skating appears to be lacking, and the way the league is going, for that reason alone (not that it's the only one), I'd prefer Cozens.

Get over yourself. We don't have to agree, and you don't have to attempt to talk down on people that have a differing opinion...

#BellLetsTalk

I only talk down to people whose opinions are absurd and are full of inconsistencies and logical fallacies.  If you care about BPA, then you shouldn't want Cozens because most people don't think he's the BPA after Hughes and Kakko.  And if you DO want Cozens, then you don't value BPA.  Also, if you care about what "experts" think...and you've said you do many times, then you should probably reconsider your positions when the experts disagree with you, which they do in this case.  Otherwise, and this seems to be increasingly likely, you're just making things up to validate your preconceived ideas about players you'd like to see us draft, and then dressing those ideas up in phony logic so that you don't seem arbitrary. 

#BellLetsTalk...about how nothing you say about hockey makes any sense at all. 

Also, and this has been driving me crazy for years, you use the word "seen" wrong.  I SAW the Red Wings play in Detroit once.  Not, I SEEN the Red Wings play in Detroit once. 

[Jonas Mahonas 1,872]

14 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

I only talk down to people whose opinions are absurd and are full of inconsistencies and logical fallacies.  If you care about BPA, then you shouldn't want Cozens because most people don't think he's the BPA after Hughes and Kakko.  And if you DO want Cozens, then you don't value BPA.  Also, if you care about what "experts" think...and you've said you do many times, then you should probably reconsider your positions when the experts disagree with you, which they do in this case.  Otherwise, and this seems to be increasingly likely, you're just making things up to validate your preconceived ideas about players you'd like to see us draft, and then dressing those ideas up in phony logic so that you don't seem arbitrary. 

#BellLetsTalk...about how nothing you say about hockey makes any sense at all. 

Also, and this has been driving me crazy for years, you use the word "seen" wrong.  I SAW the Red Wings play in Detroit once.  Not, I SEEN the Red Wings play in Detroit once. 

The gloves are off!!!

[krsmith17 7,191]

16 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

I only talk down to people whose opinions are absurd and are full of inconsistencies and logical fallacies.  If you care about BPA, then you shouldn't want Cozens because most people don't think he's the BPA after Hughes and Kakko.  And if you DO want Cozens, then you don't value BPA.  Also, if you care about what "experts" think...and you've said you do many times, then you should probably reconsider your positions when the experts disagree with you, which they do in this case.  Otherwise, and this seems to be increasingly likely, you're just making things up to validate your preconceived ideas about players you'd like to see us draft, and then dressing those ideas up in phony logic so that you don't seem arbitrary. 

#BellLetsTalk...about how nothing you say about hockey makes any sense at all. 

Also, and this has been driving me crazy for years, you use the word "seen" wrong.  I SAW the Red Wings play in Detroit once.  Not, I SEEN the Red Wings play in Detroit once. 

LOL such a petulant child... Not even worth the time...

[kipwinger 8,529]

2 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

LOL such a petulant child... Not even worth the time...

Didn't you insinuate that I had mental illness with the Bell hashtag to begin with?  That was pretty adult of you. Don't dish it if you can't take it.  You got personal and I responded.

Edited January 31, 2019 by kipwinger

[The 91 of Ryans 3,015]

3 minutes ago, Jonas Mahonas said:

The gloves are off!!!

you shut up!!! 

[kipwinger 8,529]

2 hours ago, The 91 of Ryans said:

As with any team that's only had 2 top 10 picks since the older George Bush was president, there is (arguably) a need at every position. IMO this team has no elite wingers, centers, or d men in the system and no superstars. 9 times out of ten I'm a BPA guy. In the Wings current state I'm BPA 11 times out of 10. But that's just me. I'll leave it to Wright and co. to determine who those players are. As far as the bolded part, and I know this is retro-analysis, but try telling this to Arizona (Strome) and Toronto (Marner). 

I don't put a lot of stock into BPA, or tiers, or ranking, or anything like that because they're so often misleading or flat out get it wrong.  The only thing I think a GM should consider with each pick is which player, or combination of players if you trade back, is best able to make you a Cup contender. Which means a few things: 

First, I'm interested in how good a player is going to BECOME, not how good they currently are. I'm always a little confused when people say Player X is the best prospect as if there's some prospect championship that GMs care about.

Second, in general teams with a bunch of really good players are better than teams with one or two elite players.  Steve Yzerman has more Cups than Mario Lemieux despite the fact that he's a worse player.  Likewise, during his 20 year career more Cups were won without Nick Lidstrom than with him.  Similarly, Wayne Gretzky never won again after leaving Edmonton.  Why?  Because having the best player doesn't mean as much as people think. 

Finally, the idea of "best" is a moving target anyway. Especially in 17 year olds.  Elias Pettersson and Miro Hieskanen are better players than Nolan Patrick and Nico Hischier despite the fact that NOBODY said they were "better" in their draft years.  Brady Tkachuk is currently out performing Filip Zadina, and NOBODY had him ranked as the better player pre-draft. Why?  Because nobody has a clue what they mean by "best".  Does best mean "better stats", or "most physically developed", or "most skilled", or "greatest potential".  Nobody knows.  So when people say Player X is "better" than Player Y, I'm always a little lost trying to figure out what criteria they're using.  

If I were a GM, or head of scouting, I'd probably use some type of matrix to determine which players to target.  Cross analyze players over a number of variables, tally their ratings, and then target them.  So, for instance, centers and defensemen are worth more than wingers, playing well in a men's league is worth more than playing well in a junior league, speed is worth more than slowness, skill is worth more than physical traits (up to a point), etc. etc. etc.  Give every player a rating over every variable and then figure out who is "best". 

Edit: Quickly, two other things that I think are HUGE when drafting are A) How robotically committed to being a pro is this kid?  Does he really have what it takes to eat right, work out, etc. etc. etc. every day for the next 10-20 years, and B) tendencies in his decision making.  I'd want to scout him enough to see HOW he processes different game scenarios is real time and look for tendencies which lead to success.

Edited January 31, 2019 by kipwinger

[kickazz 5,459]

41 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

 

Also, and this has been driving me crazy for years, you use the word "seen" wrong.  I SAW the Red Wings play in Detroit once.  Not, I SEEN the Red Wings play in Detroit once. 

Wow now you took it too far dude.... 

[kipwinger 8,529]

3 minutes ago, kickazz said:

Wow now you took it too far dude.... 

I'm CRAZY, didn't you know?  #BellLetsTalk

[Dabura 12,207]

1 hour ago, Neomaxizoomdweebie said:

So theyre assuming we get screwed on draft position again?

Nah, they were just going on the standings at the time.

[Jonas Mahonas 1,872]

1 hour ago, kipwinger said:

I don't put a lot of stock into BPA, or tiers, or ranking, or anything like that because they're so often misleading or flat out get it wrong.  The only thing I think a GM should consider with each pick is which player, or combination of players if you trade back, is best able to make you a Cup contender. Which means a few things: 

First, I'm interested in how good a player is going to BECOME, not how good they currently are. I'm always a little confused when people say Player X is the best prospect as if there's some prospect championship that GMs care about.

Second, in general teams with a bunch of really good players are better than teams with one or two elite players.  Steve Yzerman has more Cups than Mario Lemieux despite the fact that he's a worse player.  Likewise, during his 20 year career more Cups were won without Nick Lidstrom than with him.  Similarly, Wayne Gretzky never won again after leaving Edmonton.  Why?  Because having the best player doesn't mean as much as people think. 

Finally, the idea of "best" is a moving target anyway. Especially in 17 year olds.  Elias Pettersson and Miro Hieskanen are better players than Nolan Patrick and Nico Hischier despite the fact that NOBODY said they were "better" in their draft years.  Brady Tkachuk is currently out performing Filip Zadina, and NOBODY had him ranked as the better player pre-draft. Why?  Because nobody has a clue what they mean by "best".  Does best mean "better stats", or "most physically developed", or "most skilled", or "greatest potential".  Nobody knows.  So when people say Player X is "better" than Player Y, I'm always a little lost trying to figure out what criteria they're using.  

If I were a GM, or head of scouting, I'd probably use some type of matrix to determine which players to target.  Cross analyze players over a number of variables, tally their ratings, and then target them.  So, for instance, centers and defensemen are worth more than wingers, playing well in a men's league is worth more than playing well in a junior league, speed is worth more than slowness, skill is worth more than physical traits (up to a point), etc. etc. etc.  Give every player a rating over every variable and then figure out who is "best". 

Edit: Quickly, two other things that I think are HUGE when drafting are A) How robotically committed to being a pro is this kid?  Does he really have what it takes to eat right, work out, etc. etc. etc. every day for the next 10-20 years, and B) tendencies in his decision making.  I'd want to scout him enough to see HOW he processes different game scenarios is real time and look for tendencies which lead to success.

If I were a GM, I'd look at filling holes rather than BPA.  This team has 4 huge holes to fill right now and 3 smaller ones.  It needs a top line winger, a RIGHT HANDED top line winger, a 1A defenseman, and a 1B defenseman, one of which needs to be RIGHT HANDED.

 

_______ - Larkin - _______

_______ - Athanasiou - Mantha

_______ - Veleno - Zadina

_______ - Rasmussen - Bertuzzi

 

 

_______ - _______

Cholowski- Hronek

McIsaac - Lindstrom

 

Goalie

Goalie

 

Drafting BPA had gotten us into a mess with 12 left handed forwards that all play the same game.  That isnt good.  We need the other half of the ice opened up with RIGHT HANDED players.

[kipwinger 8,529]

2 hours ago, Jonas Mahonas said:

If I were a GM, I'd look at filling holes rather than BPA.  This team has 4 huge holes to fill right now and 3 smaller ones.  It needs a top line winger, a RIGHT HANDED top line winger, a 1A defenseman, and a 1B defenseman, one of which needs to be RIGHT HANDED.

 

_______ - Larkin - _______

_______ - Athanasiou - Mantha

_______ - Veleno - Zadina

_______ - Rasmussen - Bertuzzi

 

 

_______ - _______

Cholowski- Hronek

McIsaac - Lindstrom

 

Goalie

Goalie

 

Drafting BPA had gotten us into a mess with 12 left handed forwards that all play the same game.  That isnt good.  We need the other half of the ice opened up with RIGHT HANDED players.

Like I said, I believe in drafting for need all else being equal (or mostly equal) in terms of talent.  I was fine with us drafting Zadina last year because otherwise we were going to take Evan Bouchard, and I think there was a pretty big difference in terms of talent between them. And this is despite the fact that we needed a defenseman more than we needed the winger. 

I also have a few issues with your roster above.  It's probably too early to tell how good Zadina and Veleno are going to be.  Same with Cholowski and Hronek.  Also AA is pretty bad at playing center, and he's super good on the wing so I probably would not slot him in as a 2C.  He's played almost exclusively on the wings this year and is on pace to score 30 goals.  Mantha will probably score 20.  Bertuzzi as well.  Most teams, even elite ones, don't get a ton more scoring than that out of their top six wingers.  Take the Caps last season, everybody knows about how awesome Ovechkin was, but most forget that Tom Wilson (14 goals last season) was the other top line winger.  Their 2nd line wingers?  Oshie (18 goals) and Vrana (13 goals). 3rd line wingers?  Smith Pely (7 goals), Burakovsky (13 goals). 

Point is, you can win without insane production from your top six wingers.  But there's the thing, their top two centers scored 83 and 71 points respectively.  They never won s*** with just one elite center (Backstrom) and an elite winger (Ovechkin). Their top scorer in the playoffs was Kuznetsov, not Ovechkin.  Keep going back, Pittsburgh won all their Cups without ANY elite wingers.  Los Angeles too (unless you count old Gaborik).  Boston, ditto.  Only Chicago won with poor center depth and high end talent on the wings (Kane, Hossa, Sharp).  As an aside, this is why I maintain that Joel Quenneville is the league's best coach. 

If/when Tampa wins the Cup this season it will be the same song second verse. Stamkos and Kucherov couldn't get it done alone, and their team has gone to new heights with the ascension of Brayden Point.  Same with Toronto. 

Edited February 1, 2019 by kipwinger