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HoweFan

2019 Draft

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I'll be honest, I'd rather have Cozens than Hughes. I haven't really had a chance to look too much into the defensemen in this class yet.  Superficially it seems like a thin year for defense, but I don't know.  I definitely don't like Byram (seems to have limited offensive upside). Newhook's my guy though.  Dynamic offense...gets me every time. 

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On 12/13/2018 at 1:52 PM, kipwinger said:

I'll be honest, I'd rather have Cozens than Hughes. I haven't really had a chance to look too much into the defensemen in this class yet.  Superficially it seems like a thin year for defense, but I don't know.  I definitely don't like Byram (seems to have limited offensive upside). Newhook's my guy though.  Dynamic offense...gets me every time. 

Does seem like a thin year for D. I'm tempted to say it's the inverse of the 2018 draft, where you had an unusually large number of high-end defensemen and an unusually low number of high-end centermen...but that's probably overstating things a bit. Certainly I need to do a lot more learnin' before I can say I have a decent handle on the consensus top-40(ish) names. (And even then, it's just the top names. I'd be lying if I said my knowledge of any given draft class goes beyond, like, 60 players.)

As for Cozens? Love him. At the moment, I wouldn't take him over Hughes and I probably wouldn't take him over Kakko, but he's such an appealing package that I can understand why someone might be tempted to do it. That being said, Hughes and Kakko and Cozens and Dach is a HYPE! as hell group of mid-season headliners and I'd be absolutely thrilled to see the Wings land any of them. Add a pretty sizeable group of excellent "second-tier" guys like Krebs and Newhook and Turcotte and Suzuki and Boldy and Lavoie and I'm already super-stoked for this draft.

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1 hour ago, Dabura said:

Boogie2988 is a YouTuber. I know this because I am a highly refined man of culture and you are all godless heathens.

But do you drink single malt scotch, or a quality bourbon (both 'neat' of course)?

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19 minutes ago, HoweFan said:

Where do you think Brett Leason will be drafted?  Is it too much to hope that a 6:04 centre who’s leading all juniors in scoring would slip to us in the second round. Hard to believe he went undrafted last year  

I think he'll drop at least to the end of the first, possibly even mid 2nd round. He's been ripping up the Dub this year, but this tournament could be his coming out party. I'd love to draft him with our one of our 2nd round picks in next year's draft. Big, right-handed scoring center / winger. Sign me up. A bit of a late bloomer, but could be a great add.

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9 minutes ago, HoweFan said:

Where do you think Brett Leason will be drafted?  Is it too much to hope that a 6:04 centre who’s leading all juniors in scoring would slip to us in the second round. Hard to believe he went undrafted last year  

Here's a pretty good piece on this very topic:

Brett Leason and the 2019 NHL Draft's Overage Puzzle [The Hockey Writers]

His numbers are impressive and you have to like his size. On the other hand, he's bigger and older than most of his peers, which does take a bit of the shine off what he's been able to accomplish this season. Still, I think he could be a worthwhile 2nd-round selection. I'd feel pretty good about us taking him in the 2nd round if we go into this draft with, say, 4 picks spread across the first two rounds (like our 2018 draft).

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38 minutes ago, Dabura said:

Here's a pretty good piece on this very topic:

Brett Leason and the 2019 NHL Draft's Overage Puzzle [The Hockey Writers]

His numbers are impressive and you have to like his size. On the other hand, he's bigger and older than most of his peers, which does take a bit of the shine off what he's been able to accomplish this season. Still, I think he could be a worthwhile 2nd-round selection. I'd feel pretty good about us taking him in the 2nd round if we go into this draft with, say, 4 picks spread across the first two rounds (like our 2018 draft).

I think Leason is a long-shot.  He was eligible to be drafted in 2017....so he went undrafted twice.  Looking at the stats, you can probably see why...pretty underwhelming.  This year his stats are great, but most will likely chalk it up as an older guy playing against younger competition.

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30 minutes ago, Dabura said:

Here's a pretty good piece on this very topic:

Brett Leason and the 2019 NHL Draft's Overage Puzzle [The Hockey Writers]

His numbers are impressive and you have to like his size. On the other hand, he's bigger and older than most of his peers, which does take a bit of the shine off what he's been able to accomplish this season. Still, I think he could be a worthwhile 2nd-round selection. I'd feel pretty good about us taking him in the 2nd round if we go into this draft with, say, 4 picks spread across the first two rounds (like our 2018 draft).

Yeah, he'd likely be a top 3 pick if he were putting up these numbers in his draft year. You definitely need to take into account that he was draft eligible last year, but impressive nonetheless.

I probably would have been a little disappointed at the time, if we had used a 2nd round pick on him in this past draft. However, I would be thrilled now if we did. He's putting up similar (slightly better) numbers as Veleno, in a tighter league, albeit almost a year older.

It's kind of surprising that no one took a flyer on him in the later rounds in this past draft though. It's not like his numbers were that bad last season...

But yes, I'd definitely be okay using a 2nd round pick on him in next year's draft.

3 minutes ago, toby91_ca said:

I think Leason is a long-shot.  He was eligible to be drafted in 2017....so he went undrafted twice.  Looking at the stats, you can probably see why...pretty underwhelming.  This year his stats are great, but most will likely chalk it up as an older guy playing against younger competition.

I wasn't aware that he was draft eligible in 2017... Are you sure about that? If that's the case, maybe even more reason to be hesitant using a high pick on him... I'll admit that I'm basing my opinion solely on his stats, a couple highlight videos and a couple small snippets I've read on him over the past couple weeks. I never even heard of him until about a month ago... I'll be watching all the Canada games, so I'll be keeping a close eye on him for sure.

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1 minute ago, toby91_ca said:

I think Leason is a long-shot.  He was eligible to be drafted in 2017....so he went undrafted twice.  Looking at the stats, you can probably see why...pretty underwhelming.  This year his stats are great, but most will likely chalk it up as an older guy playing against younger competition.

I guess it comes down to exactly how much you attribute his current dominance to the age factor. The safe bet is probably "It's entirely because of the age factor." But if our amateur scouts think he's a genuine late-bloomer and we take him in the first half of the draft, I wouldn't complain (provided we have lots of picks across the first half of the draft).

Franzen was in his mid-20s when we drafted him out of the SEL and he projected as a checking center with limited scoring ability. Granted, that's not a perfect comparable/precedent for Leason, but the point is that good talent can and does slip through the cracks.

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1 hour ago, krsmith17 said:

Yeah, he'd likely be a top 3 pick if he were putting up these numbers in his draft year. You definitely need to take into account that he was draft eligible last year, but impressive nonetheless.

I probably would have been a little disappointed at the time, if we had used a 2nd round pick on him in this past draft. However, I would be thrilled now if we did. He's putting up similar (slightly better) numbers as Veleno, in a tighter league, albeit almost a year older.

It's kind of surprising that no one took a flyer on him in the later rounds in this past draft though. It's not like his numbers were that bad last season...

But yes, I'd definitely be okay using a 2nd round pick on him in next year's draft.

I wasn't aware that he was draft eligible in 2017... Are you sure about that? If that's the case, maybe even more reason to be hesitant using a high pick on him... I'll admit that I'm basing my opinion solely on his stats, a couple highlight videos and a couple small snippets I've read on him over the past couple weeks. I never even heard of him until about a month ago... I'll be watching all the Canada games, so I'll be keeping a close eye on him for sure.

I haven't seen much of him (incidentally, yay streaming sites!), so I don't have a strong opinion on him. I'll be interested to hear your thoughts on him and anyone else. I'm hoping there'll be streams available for all of the tournament games, or at least the bigger ones.

So, yeah. If we're looking for a big, right-shot scoring center / winger of the high-end variety, Leason probably isn't our guy. Or maybe he is. (Probably not.) In any case, Dach and Cozens and Lavoie are the big names in the big-bodied RH C/W category and they're all great young players, as you know.

Hughes and Kakko are still my #1 and #2, respectively, but there are, like, six(ish) non-Hughes/Kakko forwards who I view as equal to or better than 2013-14 Dylan Larkin. But that's just one man's take.

Edited by Dabura

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38 minutes ago, Dabura said:

I haven't seen much of him (incidentally, yay streaming sites!), so I don't have a strong opinion on him. I'll be interested to hear your thoughts on him and anyone else. I'm hoping there'll be streams available for all of the tournament games, or at least the bigger ones.

So, yeah. If we're looking for a big, right-shot scoring center / winger of the high-end variety, Leason probably isn't our guy. Or maybe he is. (Probably not.) In any case, Dach and Cozens and Lavoie are the big names in the big-bodied RH C/W category and they're all great young players, as you know.

Hughes and Kakko are still my #1 and #2, respectively, but there are, like, six(ish) non-Hughes/Kakko forwards who I view as equal to or better than 2013-14 Dylan Larkin. But that's just one man's take.

Not sure if you have access to TSN in the states, but Canada are about to play their first pre-tournament game against Switzerland now. I'll be watching and keeping a close eye on Leason, as well as Veleno (I don't think McIsaac is playing, listed as the 7th defenseman).

Also, yes, Cozens and Dach will likely be better players than Leason, but I'd be okay with taking one with our 1st pick, and one with one of our 2nd rounders...

EDIT: Nevermind. McIsaac is playing. Joe is #9, Jared is #4.

Edited by krsmith17

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14 hours ago, krsmith17 said:

I wasn't aware that he was draft eligible in 2017... Are you sure about that? If that's the case, maybe even more reason to be hesitant using a high pick on him... 

Yes, I'm sure.  And if he was born 7 months earlier, he would have been eligible for the 2016 draft as well.  I know that's a stretch, but just showing to note that it's not that he was eligible for the 2017 draft by a hair and would have been one of the youngest.....if he was drafted in 2017, he actually would have been of average age to the older end perhaps.

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Assorted links:

From that Sporting News piece on Hughes:

Quote

When it comes to hockey, you’ll rarely see bigger athletes of any age look visibly intimidated by a smaller pivot stickhandling toward their direction. But the speed Hughes generates once he crosses center ice forces the most disciplined defenders to back off the blue line and allow him entry into the offensive zone. 

Once inside, spectators are treated to his array of sharp pivots, pirouettes and jukes that make Hughes well worth the price of admission. His command of the puck and the ability to identify multiple scoring-chance options while moving at a frantic pace tires out static zone coverages, thus allowing Hughes to dart and weave virtually unchecked and unbridled.

“Jack Hughes is an elite talent,” a USHL scout from a rival team told Sporting News. “And as such, we develop a specific game plan to minimize the damage he will cause. I say minimize because you can never truly take him out of the game’s dynamic.”

Quote

“He’s tenacious,” the same USHL scout told SN. “And his instant recognition of the unfolding play means that you can keep him in check for most of a game, only to have him beat you at a critical moment. His talent and upside is in line with some of the best young players in the NHL.”

Quote

Statistically, Hughes is doing things almost unseen for an elite American draft prospect. He is on pace to smash the scoring records either currently or previously held by the likes of American-born NHL stars Auston Matthews, Patrick Kane, Jack Eichel, Phil Kessel and Clayton Keller — five players who, like Hughes, cut their teeth as members of the U.S. National Team Development Program.

Is Hughes the best prospect to come out of NTDP? The numbers say he very well may be.

Hughes, who last year as a 16-year-old set a single-season NTDP record with 76 assists, came one point shy from tying Matthews’ record of 117 points in 2014-15. He needs only nine assists to surpass Maple Leafs prospect Jeremy Bracco’s career mark of 122 and is 26 points from passing Keller as the NTDP's all-time leading scorer. His invitation to the U.S. World Juniors camp and expected roster spot should cost Hughes approximately six regular-season games, but the NTDP still has an additional 20 or so matches post-WJC, and that’s not including the 5-7 games he should see in April at the under-18 world championships.

Going by his current scoring pace and how close he is to the top, Hughes should become the NTDP’s all-time leader in both assists and points by late February, if not sooner.

 

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On 12/19/2018 at 4:33 PM, HoweFan said:

Where do you think Brett Leason will be drafted?  Is it too much to hope that a 6:04 centre who’s leading all juniors in scoring would slip to us in the second round. Hard to believe he went undrafted last year  

I keep reading this as Brett Lebda.

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