• Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

Sign in to follow this  
Euro_Twins

Larkin for the C

Rate this topic

Recommended Posts

4 hours ago, krsmith17 said:

Mantha did not have Larkin centering him at the WC. He still produced. Like most top six wingers, Mantha needs a quality center that can get him the puck. When he gets the puck in a quality scoring area, he's more dangerous than anyone on the team. The one area that Athanasiou is better than Mantha, is self creating, because of his speed. Pretty much every other aspect of the game, Mantha has him beat.

Except goals, assists, and points.  AA has Mantha beat in all those.  Maybe Mantha will have his coming out party this year tho.  I hope so.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Jonas Mahonas said:

Except goals, assists, and points.  AA has Mantha beat in all those.  Maybe Mantha will have his coming out party this year tho.  I hope so.

Athanasiou has 5 more goals in 31 more games. Mantha has 10 more assists and 5 more points... again, in 31 less games...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, krsmith17 said:

Mantha did not have Larkin centering him at the WC. He still produced. Like most top six wingers, Mantha needs a quality center that can get him the puck. When he gets the puck in a quality scoring area, he's more dangerous than anyone on the team. The one area that Athanasiou is better than Mantha, is self creating, because of his speed. Pretty much every other aspect of the game, Mantha has him beat.

As long as he can stay healthy, I think Mantha will have a monster season this year. I could see as a ceiling 40 goals, 30 assists.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Jonas Mahonas said:

Last year.

Yes. Kevin Fiala, along with nearly 200 other players, were better than Taylor Hall last year... It's crazy how injuries can effect a players production...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, krsmith17 said:

Yes. Kevin Fiala, along with nearly 200 other players, were better than Taylor Hall last year... It's crazy how injuries can effect a players production...

Or playing on the 3rd line for the first 50 games.  You put Mantha with Nielsen and Vanek for 50 games and Athanasiou with Larkin and Bertuzzi for that stretch, everyone would be hammering Mantha like he was Jonathan Ericsson.  I cant wait to watch you squirm and wiggle this upcoming season.  You dont realize yet that the rest of the league is aware of the Mantha-Larkin-Bertuzzi line.  For some reason, you think they are just going to be an unstoppable force for 10 straight seasons.  Here's some truth for you - the other teams are going to stop em.  And Blashill is going to juggle the lines.  And Mantha isnt going to be left wide open in the slot when he doesnt have Larkin commanding the attention of 2 defenders.  Mantha will get 40-50 pts.  If you are expecting 60-70, you might want to tone that down a bit.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, Jonas Mahonas said:

Or playing on the 3rd line for the first 50 games.  You put Mantha with Nielsen and Vanek for 50 games and Athanasiou with Larkin and Bertuzzi for that stretch, everyone would be hammering Mantha like he was Jonathan Ericsson.  I cant wait to watch you squirm and wiggle this upcoming season.  You dont realize yet that the rest of the league is aware of the Mantha-Larkin-Bertuzzi line.  For some reason, you think they are just going to be an unstoppable force for 10 straight seasons.  Here's some truth for you - the other teams are going to stop em.  And Blashill is going to juggle the lines.  And Mantha isnt going to be left wide open in the slot when he doesnt have Larkin commanding the attention of 2 defenders.  Mantha will get 40-50 pts.  If you are expecting 60-70, you might want to tone that down a bit.

What Athanasiou was able to do with Nielsen and Vanek was very impressive. Like I've said, he can self create better than anyone on the team, with the exception of maybe Larkin. So yes, if Mantha was put on a line with two black holes, he probably wouldn't put up many points. That's why he's put on a line with Larkin, and aside from a game / shift here and there, will play most of this season with Larkin. That's also a reason Larkin and Athanasiou probably wouldn't work well together long term...

I don't think the Bertuzzi - Larkin - Mantha line are an "unstoppable force". Not even close. As of right now, they're an average top line. I think they have the potential to be a top top line, but they're not there yet.

I'll bet anything that *if Mantha is healthy* he will score 30+goals, 60+ points this season. I'll also bet on him outscoring Athanasiou... Maybe we should bet another trip to Detroit / LCA?

It's cute that you and the 4 other Red Wings fans still think Athanasiou is better than Mantha... (one of those four is AA's mom)...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

What Athanasiou was able to do with Nielsen and Vanek was very impressive. Like I've said, he can self create better than anyone on the team, with the exception of maybe Larkin. So yes, if Mantha was put on a line with two black holes, he probably wouldn't put up many points. That's why he's put on a line with Larkin, and aside from a game / shift here and there, will play most of this season with Larkin. That's also a reason Larkin and Athanasiou probably wouldn't work well together long term...

I don't think the Bertuzzi - Larkin - Mantha line are an "unstoppable force". Not even close. As of right now, they're an average top line. I think they have the potential to be a top top line, but they're not there yet.

I'll bet anything that *if Mantha is healthy* he will score 30+goals, 60+ points this season. I'll also bet on him outscoring Athanasiou... Maybe we should bet another trip to Detroit / LCA?

It's cute that you and the 4 other Red Wings fans still think Athanasiou is better than Mantha... (one of those four is AA's mom)...

I will pay up before another bet is made.  You are in toronto?  What arena is closest?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

can't wait to see:

Lafreniere - Larkin - Mantha

Zadina - Veleno - AA

:lol:

realistically, though, Bertuzzi on the top line, but the rest all the same.  There will be a 40 goal scorer and 100 point netter amongst them soon enough.  Maybe more than one!

I love AA and I love Mantha.  It's silly to compare them, they are two different players.  Mantha is more of the power forward type and AA a sniper. It's simple, they are both good, soon to be great, they are both what we need.  They fill two roles.  In a couple of season's, the better debate will be AA vs. Zadina. 

Could you imagine this team if Mantha, AA and Zadina were all 40 goal scorers and Larkin and Veleno were 100 pointers?

Edited by LeftWinger

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, LeftWinger said:

 

Could you imagine this team if Mantha, AA and Zadina were all 40 goal scorers and Larkin and Veleno were 100 pointers?

Yes I can imagine it because my imagination is the only place that will happen. =P

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There are actually stats which can put this whole debate to rest pretty easily because the NHL adjusts for scoring per/60.  So you don't have to speculate who would be better if so and so played the same number of games as the other guy. 

G/60:  Over the last three years AA has been better than Mantha every year in goals/60. Typically by a pretty wide margin.  AA also scores more on way fewer shots as well, which is probably another indication that he's a better goal scorer. 

A/60: Mantha has the advantage in assists/60 over the three years, also by a wide margin, so he's pretty obviously better at generating assists

P/60: In '17 and '18 Mantha led in points/60, while AA led in points/60 in 2019.  These figures, for obvious reasons, are much closer. 

So thems the facts. And since both of them suck defensively, I'd say it's pretty clear cut which player does what better.  Both are WAY better at one particular thing, and both have the same noticeable holes in their games. The idea that either of them is a significantly better all around player is dumb.  The facts just don't support that. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, kipwinger said:

There are actually stats which can put this whole debate to rest pretty easily because the NHL adjusts for scoring per/60.  So you don't have to speculate who would be better if so and so played the same number of games as the other guy. 

G/60:  Over the last three years AA has been better than Mantha every year in goals/60. Typically by a pretty wide margin.  AA also scores more on way fewer shots as well, which is probably another indication that he's a better goal scorer. 

A/60: Mantha has the advantage in assists/60 over the three years, also by a wide margin, so he's pretty obviously better at generating assists

P/60: In '17 and '18 Mantha led in points/60, while AA led in points/60 in 2019.  These figures, for obvious reasons, are much closer. 

So thems the facts. And since both of them suck defensively, I'd say it's pretty clear cut which player does what better.  Both are WAY better at one particular thing, and both have the same noticeable holes in their games. The idea that either of them is a significantly better all around player is dumb.  The facts just don't support that. 

 

Thank you.  Would you attribute AA's weaker advanced stats to quality of linemates?  Mantha has a clear advantage in Corsi/Fenwick, but I would attribute that to Larkin.  Not to take away from Mantha, as Larkin needs a guy that can bury it from 15' in.  Mantha is one of our best shooters, so he definitely contributes to Larkins success.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Jonas Mahonas said:

Thank you.  Would you attribute AA's weaker advanced stats to quality of linemates?  Mantha has a clear advantage in Corsi/Fenwick, but I would attribute that to Larkin.  Not to take away from Mantha, as Larkin needs a guy that can bury it from 15' in.  Mantha is one of our best shooters, so he definitely contributes to Larkins success.

Well, I'd clarify one point which is that offense (points) and possession (shots attempts) aren't the same thing.  One can score a lot and have bad possession metrics, such as AA.  Or you can have really good possession metrics and rarely score (Brendan Smith). So you can't really use possession metrics as evidence that a player is better offensively, it only indicates who has the puck more when they're on the ice.  That caveat aside...

Usage, zone starts, linemates all impact possession numbers. Possession metrics are all predicated on shots, or shot attempts.  So all things being equal, having better linemates, starting more in the offensive zone, or simply shooting more yourself should all increase one's possession metrics.  AA has really good offensive numbers, and really poor possession metrics because he doesn't shoot much and typically has poor linemates.  He does generally get favorable zone starts though not as much as Mantha. 

Mantha has much higher possession metrics (again, this simply means adjusted shot attempts), in large part because he shoots a lot more, but also because he plays with some of the better shot generators on the team (Larkin and Bert).  Though it should be noted that just like they contribute to Mantha's shot generation, he contributes to theirs as well.  Finally, Mantha is HEAVILY sheltered in terms of zone starts.  Only Frk and Vanek started in the offensive zone more than Mantha.  This, probably more than anything else, explains why Mantha's possession numbers are so high.  Pretty easy to generate shots when you don't have to go 200 feet to do so. 

Another caveat, don't infer causation where it doesn't exist.  Mantha is a good offensive player (and bad defensive one), who's especially good on the cycle, so of course he gets a lot of offensive zone starts and as a result gets a bump in his possession metrics.  But that's the way it's supposed to go.  It's a little like saying, "well So-and-so is only good because he's on the powerplay".  Sure, but he wouldn't be on the powerplay if he wasn't a good offensive player ya know?  Mantha has essentially no utility outside of the offensive zone (the same is basically true of AA as well, but less so), so he's only used there.  But he's pretty good there.  So he sees a bump in his possession metrics, but that isn't the cause of his offensive.  It's the result of his being good offensively.  It's just the cause of his good possession numbers. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
40 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

Well, I'd clarify one point which is that offense (points) and possession (shots attempts) aren't the same thing.  One can score a lot and have bad possession metrics, such as AA.  Or you can have really good possession metrics and rarely score (Brendan Smith). So you can't really use possession metrics as evidence that a player is better offensively, it only indicates who has the puck more when they're on the ice.  That caveat aside...

Usage, zone starts, linemates all impact possession numbers. Possession metrics are all predicated on shots, or shot attempts.  So all things being equal, having better linemates, starting more in the offensive zone, or simply shooting more yourself should all increase one's possession metrics.  AA has really good offensive numbers, and really poor possession metrics because he doesn't shoot much and typically has poor linemates.  He does generally get favorable zone starts though not as much as Mantha. 

Mantha has much higher possession metrics (again, this simply means adjusted shot attempts), in large part because he shoots a lot more, but also because he plays with some of the better shot generators on the team (Larkin and Bert).  Though it should be noted that just like they contribute to Mantha's shot generation, he contributes to theirs as well.  Finally, Mantha is HEAVILY sheltered in terms of zone starts.  Only Frk and Vanek started in the offensive zone more than Mantha.  This, probably more than anything else, explains why Mantha's possession numbers are so high.  Pretty easy to generate shots when you don't have to go 200 feet to do so. 

Another caveat, don't infer causation where it doesn't exist.  Mantha is a good offensive player (and bad defensive one), who's especially good on the cycle, so of course he gets a lot of offensive zone starts and as a result gets a bump in his possession metrics.  But that's the way it's supposed to go.  It's a little like saying, "well So-and-so is only good because he's on the powerplay".  Sure, but he wouldn't be on the powerplay if he wasn't a good offensive player ya know?  Mantha has essentially no utility outside of the offensive zone (the same is basically true of AA as well, but less so), so he's only used there.  But he's pretty good there.  So he sees a bump in his possession metrics, but that isn't the cause of his offensive.  It's the result of his being good offensively.  It's just the cause of his good possession numbers. 

I see what you are saying.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this