2021 Off-Season (Too Soon?)

[Dabura 12,207]

I'm not super big on Reinhart as a serious trade target.

Reasons:

> Intradivision, i.e. Kevyn Adams would probably want to bleed us, i.e. a late 1st + Zadina + a nothing defenseman (Cholowski) probably doesn't do it. Now, maybe Reinhart badly wants out of Buffalo and is willing to bend Adams over a barrel. But my sense is that isn't the case.

> For each of the past three seasons, his zone start split at even strength has been right around 60/40. That's pretty cushy deployment. So, even if he *is* a true centerman (the jury's out on that, I think), he's likely a 2C. Larkin would eat the hard minutes, Reinhart would eat the cake minutes. Which would be fine if I believed we could get him for a very fair price. But, again, I don't believe that.

> His shooting percentage this season was 19.2%.

[Dabura 12,207]

A guy who's very similar to Reinhart and isn't in our division (or conference, for that matter): Elias Lindholm. I dunno that he'd be any less expensive than Reinhart, though.

Another Flame who's similar to Reinhart but more proven at center (albeit just as questionable defensively): Sean Monahan. A few weeks ago it was reported that Brad Treliving was listening to offers on Monahan. Monahan's coming off a rough individual season, so Treliving would be selling low on a player who's otherwise produced pretty well. Kind of a Larkin situation. I guess the thinking is that he's going to be 27 in October, and he's only got two years left on his contract, and the Flames are kind of drifting along aimlessly in No Man's Land and could probably use a big shakeup.

I dunno. The more I dig into potential big-name trade targets, the less likely a summer encore to the Mantha trade looks to me. In terms of roster players, what we have to offer are wingers and Hronek. Moving Hronek is probably Peter-->Paul at best. I can't see Yzerman moving Bertuzzi when he's rehabbing from back surgery. I can't see Yzerman moving Vrana after a solid (if unsustainable) 11 games. I think Fabbri and Zadina are realistic trade chips at this time, but I also think neither player gets you much in a trade.

So, on the trade front, my expectation is Yzerman will be treating cap space as his biggest asset. So...probably no huge trades.

[mackel 681]

3 hours ago, Dabura said:

A guy who's very similar to Reinhart and isn't in our division (or conference, for that matter): Elias Lindholm. I dunno that he'd be any less expensive than Reinhart, though.

Another Flame who's similar to Reinhart but more proven at center (albeit just as questionable defensively): Sean Monahan. A few weeks ago it was reported that Brad Treliving was listening to offers on Monahan. Monahan's coming off a rough individual season, so Treliving would be selling low on a player who's otherwise produced pretty well. Kind of a Larkin situation. I guess the thinking is that he's going to be 27 in October, and he's only got two years left on his contract, and the Flames are kind of drifting along aimlessly in No Man's Land and could probably use a big shakeup.

I dunno. The more I dig into potential big-name trade targets, the less likely a summer encore to the Mantha trade looks to me. In terms of roster players, what we have to offer are wingers and Hronek. Moving Hronek is probably Peter-->Paul at best. I can't see Yzerman moving Bertuzzi when he's rehabbing from back surgery. I can't see Yzerman moving Vrana after a solid (if unsustainable) 11 games. I think Fabbri and Zadina are realistic trade chips at this time, but I also think neither player gets you much in a trade.

So, on the trade front, my expectation is Yzerman will be treating cap space as his biggest asset. So...probably no huge trades.

[F.Michael 4,590]

18 hours ago, BarkBurgerman said:

I want Tatar back

Yzerman doesn’t.

[Neomaxizoomdweebie 3,083]

9 hours ago, BarkBurgerman said:

None of this answers the question.

What question? 

 

On 6/18/2021 at 4:52 PM, BarkBurgerman said:

40 pts in 54 games is a lower pace than Larkin's 23 in 44?

Is that the question? Because the answer is no. Why? Because you're cherry picking stats by only choosing 54 games comparatively. Over their careers, Larkin has been the better scorer.

9 hours ago, BarkBurgerman said:

Just from watching Reinhart and Larkin

>Playmaking: Reinhart
>Shooting: Reinhart
>Defense: Larkin
>Speed: Larkin

Is Reinhart a true center? Probably no. I wouldn't have considered him one before this season. However, I was super impressed by how he stepped in for Eichel this season. Was the only bright spot on that team and did a great job.

1. Unsustainable shooting percentage.

2. Has lower scoring stats than Larkin despite playing with Eichel.

3. Not a true center.

Edited June 20, 2021 by Neomaxizoomdweebie

[Neomaxizoomdweebie 3,083]

On 6/18/2021 at 6:46 PM, Neomaxizoomdweebie said:

 Larkin has a better scoring rate than Reinhart.

 

23 hours ago, Scott R Lucidi said:

Answer the question.

I did.

[Neomaxizoomdweebie 3,083]

On 6/18/2021 at 4:30 PM, Neomaxizoomdweebie said:

Why would give up that much for a guy who scores at a lower pace than Larkin and then make him a 1C when Larkin is supposedly a 2C?

 

On 6/18/2021 at 4:52 PM, BarkBurgerman said:

40 pts in 54 games is a lower pace than Larkin's 23 in 44?

You didn't answer the question.

[diehardredwingsfan58 123]

On 6/18/2021 at 8:56 AM, BarkBurgerman said:

>To BUF: 2021 WSH pick + Filip Zadina + Dennis Cholowski
>To DET: Sam Reinhart

Offseason:

>Sign Zach Hyman $6 million x 4
>Sign Jamie Oleksiak $4 million x 3
>Sign Mikko Lehtonen $2 million x 2

Vrana - Reinhart - Bertuzzi
Fabbri - Larkin - Hyman
Namestnikov - Rasmussen - Erne
Smith - Glendening - Panik
Veleno

Oleksiak - Hronek
Lehtonen - Seider
Dekeyser - Stecher
Lindstrom

Bernier
Greiss

Now that looks like a roster

 

LOL On what planet is Sam Reinhart worth 3 1st round picks? First off fat chance he'd even sign long term with Detroit, And secondly Reinhart is in noway worth 3 1st round picks. I wouldn't even do Reinhart 1 for 1 for Zadina let alone adding Cholowsk and the Caps 22nd overall pick to the deal as well. FYI you didn't even sign Reinhart who's probably going to command around 7x7 and in noway is Reinhart even close to 1C territory.

Edited June 20, 2021 by diehardredwingsfan58

[Dabura 12,207]

19 hours ago, mackel said:

If Zadina ends up being what you said he'd be, which is Nyquist/Tatar, which I gave you a lot of grief for saying, I will absolutely eat the crow that's served to me.

At present, the jury's out. Zadina demonstrated this season that he can play regular minutes in the NHL and that his ceiling is still high. His game's generally solid and he shows flashes of Datsyukian brilliance. Blashill clearly trusts him with first-line duty. But we need him to be a big producer and he was definitely not that this season.

In fairness, he's still quite young and inexperienced. And, to his credit, he did generate plenty of scoring chances for himself and his teammates this season.

He needs to put up points next season, though. If he doesn't, the honeymoon's over.

Edited June 20, 2021 by Dabura

[Dabura 12,207]

14 hours ago, BarkBurgerman said:

Just from watching Reinhart and Larkin

>Playmaking: Reinhart
>Shooting: Reinhart
>Defense: Larkin
>Speed: Larkin

Is Reinhart a true center? Probably no. I wouldn't have considered him one before this season. However, I was super impressed by how he stepped in for Eichel this season. Was the only bright spot on that team and did a great job.

For me it really just comes down to the ask.

[mackel 681]

14 hours ago, Dabura said:

For me it really just comes down to the ask.

Reinhardt is another true 2C, low end 1C in a pinch BUT if we have both Larkin and Reinhardt we have quantity not quality as it relates to the top 6 centers on this team... where at the moment we have neither quantity or quality.   Rolling Reinhardt, Larkin, Rasmussen and Veleno as your centers is a strong group overall, despite no superstar among the bunch.

[Dabura 12,207]

Just now, mackel said:

Reinhardt is another true 2C, low end 1C in a pinch BUT if we have both Larkin and Reinhardt we have quantity not quality as it relates to the top 6 centers on this team... where at the moment we have neither quantity or quality.   Rolling Reinhardt, Larkin, Rasmussen and Veleno as your centers is a strong group overall, despite no superstar among the bunch.

If I'm Yzerman and I'm pursuing Reinhart, that would be my reasoning; I'd be counting on Larkin and Reinhart being roughly equivalent players, with one being more of a matchup/shutdown guy and the other being a high-percentage shooter (which Larkin is unequivocally not) who can consistently beat up on other teams' secondary talent. Or, at the very least, I'd be thinking Larkin and Reinhart could work very well on the same line together.

My hangup is the other party in this hypothetical arrangement; I can't see Buffalo giving a divison rival and fellow cellar dweller a borderline 1C in his prime at a very agreeable price. Because surely the last thing they want is to get punked by Yzerman and have that come back to haunt them multiple times every year.

But if we want to go crazy...

6OA + Zadina + Fabbri for Reinhart + Buffalo's 2022 1st (no lotto protection).

[Neomaxizoomdweebie 3,083]

18 hours ago, Dabura said:

If Zadina ends up being what you said he'd be, which is Nyquist/Tatar, which I gave you a lot of grief for saying, I will absolutely eat the crow that's served to me.

No. He said Zadina was a bust. A top 6 winger is not a bust. If Zadina tops out as a Tatar type, I will be disappointed, but that is far from a bust when you consider how most 6 overall draft picks over the last 20 years have panned out.

[Neomaxizoomdweebie 3,083]

2 hours ago, Dabura said:

If I'm Yzerman and I'm pursuing Reinhart, that would be my reasoning; I'd be counting on Larkin and Reinhart being roughly equivalent players, with one being more of a matchup/shutdown guy and the other being a high-percentage shooter (which Larkin is unequivocally not) who can consistently beat up on other teams' secondary talent.

Being a high percentage shooter is irrelevant if he's not scoring. His stats looked good last season, but over his career, his offense is worse than Larkin's, despite playing with Eichel. I can't think a guy who scores less while playing with an elite center, is offensively better than a guy who plays with subpar talent on his line, but still scores at a better collective rate.

Over their respective careers, Larkin has a better scoring rate, is much better defensively, more responsible, and a better/faster skater than Reinhart. 

Trading for Reinhart would be redundant, unless you think you have the talent on the wings to succeed with Larkin and Reinhart as your 1 and 2 Centers. 

[Dabura 12,207]

4 hours ago, Neomaxizoomdweebie said:

No. He said Zadina was a bust. A top 6 winger is not a bust. If Zadina tops out as a Tatar type, I will be disappointed, but that is far from a bust when you consider how most 6 overall draft picks over the last 20 years have panned out.

If memory serves, he retreated from "unequivocal bust" and moved to "Nyquist/Tatar 2.0, which is a bust." I gave him a lot of crap for the Nyquist/Tatar projection, so that's what I'd be eating crow about, mostly.

[Dabura 12,207]

6 hours ago, Neomaxizoomdweebie said:

Being a high percentage shooter is irrelevant if he's not scoring. His stats looked good last season, but over his career, his offense is worse than Larkin's, despite playing with Eichel. I can't think a guy who scores less while playing with an elite center, is offensively better than a guy who plays with subpar talent on his line, but still scores at a better collective rate.

Over their respective careers, Larkin has a better scoring rate, is much better defensively, more responsible, and a better/faster skater than Reinhart. 

Trading for Reinhart would be redundant, unless you think you have the talent on the wings to succeed with Larkin and Reinhart as your 1 and 2 Centers. 

REGULAR STATS

POSSESSION METRICS (EV)

RATE METRICS (EV)

THOUGHTS

Sam Reinhart and Dylan Larkin are solid hockey players. In some respects, they're surprisingly similar.

I think it's fair to say Larkin is better defensively and is more of a true centerman.

One of the things that stands out to me is the gap in shots-on-goal volume; Larkin is signficantly more high-volume. Given that Larkin's career shooting percentage is 9.1%, I'm going to conclude that he's what you might call a "brute force" goal-scorer, as opposed to a precision sniper. In contrast, Reinhart's career shooting percentage is 13.6% – and that's not significantly inflated by unsustainably good scoring runs. This season, he shot 19.2. (Unsustainably good.) The season before that, he shot 15.3. The season before that, he shot 12.22. The season before that, he shot 13.3. I dare say he's a good shooter.

Why doesn't Reinhart shoot more, then? I'm guessing it's because Eichel is the go-to shooter on that team. (Eichel fires a ton of shots. Way more than Larkin.) So here's the question: What happens if Reinhart isn't playing on a team with a franchise player go-to shooter like Eichel? What if the coach tells Reinhart to defer less and shoot more? His shooting percentage probably comes down (I mean from his career average, not last season's unsustainably good rate), but I'm not sure it comes down by a whole lot. Stats-wise, this is the kind of thing you look for in a "could benefit from a change of scenery" player.

Would Reinhart be redundant in our forward group? Maybe. I dunno. If he's a centerman, he meets the "Look, all we really need at center is a guy who's roughly equivalent to Larkin" requirement. If he's a winger (I'm leaning that way), I'd like to think he and Larkin would complement each other.

Overall, I don't feel Reinhart is a player we need to be aggressively pursuing. If the ask isn't ridiculous, I wouldn't mind adding him – but a lot of teams are going to be in on him and at least several of them are going to be very serious about getting him. Vancouver. LA. Philly. NYI. Et al. We're not getting Reinhart.

Edited June 21, 2021 by Dabura

[marcaractac 3,963]

11 hours ago, Neomaxizoomdweebie said:

No. He said Zadina was a bust. A top 6 winger is not a bust. If Zadina tops out as a Tatar type, I will be disappointed, but that is far from a bust when you consider how most 6 overall draft picks over the last 20 years have panned out.

I'll be stoked if Zadina puts up Tatar #'s while also continuing to improve his defensive game. 

10 hours ago, BarkBurgerman said:

Who said anything about three 1st round picks? Zadina is a Filppula/Hudler/Nyquist/Tatar level player. Cholowski is a Brendan Smith. I'm suggesting trading a late 1st + 2nd line winger + a 7th Dman for a young 2C.

People have this weird obsession where they assume a player will always be worth at least the position they were drafted, despite their turnout. These folks literally think Cholo is values as a first rounder because he was drafted as such. Where as in a trade, you'd get a 3rd for him if you're lucky. 

[marcaractac 3,963]

17 minutes ago, BarkBurgerman said:

Reinhart really showed his true colors this year stepping out of Eichel's shadow. Sabres needed him to be the go-to guy and he showed he can do that. I didn't expect it, and I was very impressed by it.

He's not worth acquiring for us because he's basically a Fabbri style fake center.

This is why I support selling Cholo though.

If Cholo is drafted in round 4, he probably has no value on the market. But because he's a 20th overall, there's probably a team willing to give something for him. Depends on how much you believe in Cholo's potential. I don't at all.

In the sense that a team may look and say "hey, he's a former first rounder, maybe he needs a fresh start," I agree. But this idea that trading him is the same as giving up a first rounder is silly. The first round pick was wasted on the player, not any potential trade of said player. 

[Dabura 12,207]

7 hours ago, BarkBurgerman said:

Reinhart really showed his true colors this year stepping out of Eichel's shadow. Sabres needed him to be the go-to guy and he showed he can do that. I didn't expect it, and I was very impressed by it.

He's not worth acquiring for us because he's basically a Fabbri style fake center.

What's your take on Mittelstadt? Does he look like he could be a 2C?

[Dabura 12,207]

7 hours ago, BarkBurgerman said:

This is why I support selling Cholo though.

If Cholo is drafted in round 4, he probably has no value on the market. But because he's a 20th overall, there's probably a team willing to give something for him. Depends on how much you believe in Cholo's potential. I don't at all.

Cholowski = Kindl 2.0. One-dimensional offensive defenseman who doesn't put up enough points to justify the super-cushy deployment.

[diehardredwingsfan58 123]

On 6/20/2021 at 8:32 PM, BarkBurgerman said:

Who said anything about three 1st round picks? Zadina is a Filppula/Hudler/Nyquist/Tatar level player. Cholowski is a Brendan Smith. I'm suggesting trading a late 1st + 2nd line winger + a 7th Dman for a young 2C.

The last and most relevant season is cherry picking lol?

LOL they're still 1st round picks rather you like it or not. First off fat chance of Reinhart signing long term with a rebuilding team, And secondly Reinhart is 26 years old so i hardly call him a young 2C.

[Neomaxizoomdweebie 3,083]

22 hours ago, Dabura said:

REGULAR STATS

POSSESSION METRICS (EV)

RATE METRICS (EV)

THOUGHTS

Sam Reinhart and Dylan Larkin are solid hockey players. In some respects, they're surprisingly similar.

I think it's fair to say Larkin is better defensively and is more of a true centerman.

One of the things that stands out to me is the gap in shots-on-goal volume; Larkin is signficantly more high-volume. Given that Larkin's career shooting percentage is 9.1%, I'm going to conclude that he's what you might call a "brute force" goal-scorer, as opposed to a precision sniper. In contrast, Reinhart's career shooting percentage is 13.6% – and that's not significantly inflated by unsustainably good scoring runs. This season, he shot 19.2. (Unsustainably good.) The season before that, he shot 15.3. The season before that, he shot 12.22. The season before that, he shot 13.3. I dare say he's a good shooter.

Why doesn't Reinhart shoot more, then? I'm guessing it's because Eichel is the go-to shooter on that team. (Eichel fires a ton of shots. Way more than Larkin.) So here's the question: What happens if Reinhart isn't playing on a team with a franchise player go-to shooter like Eichel? What if the coach tells Reinhart to defer less and shoot more? His shooting percentage probably comes down (I mean from his career average, not last season's unsustainably good rate), but I'm not sure it comes down by a whole lot. Stats-wise, this is the kind of thing you look for in a "could benefit from a change of scenery" player.

Would Reinhart be redundant in our forward group? Maybe. I dunno. If he's a centerman, he meets the "Look, all we really need at center is a guy who's roughly equivalent to Larkin" requirement. If he's a winger (I'm leaning that way), I'd like to think he and Larkin would complement each other.

Overall, I don't feel Reinhart is a player we need to be aggressively pursuing. If the ask isn't ridiculous, I wouldn't mind adding him – but a lot of teams are going to be in on him and at least several of them are going to be very serious about getting him. Vancouver. LA. Philly. NYI. Et al. We're not getting Reinhart.

Dude. Come on. Don't make me read charts and graphs and stuff. What is this, college?

[Dabura 12,207]

13 hours ago, Neomaxizoomdweebie said:

Dude. Come on. Don't make me read charts and graphs and stuff. What is this, college?

Do you see any hot MILF professors around?

(Not a rhetorical question. Please let me know if you see any. I'm desperate.)

[diehardredwingsfan58 123]

17 hours ago, BarkBurgerman said:

No, not really. 1st round picks are 1st round picks. These are player we're talking about, who have value external to their draft pedigree.

Is 2006 Zetterberg only worth a 7th because that's where he was drafted?
Is 2017 Riley Sheahan worth a 1st because that's where he was drafted?

Any pro scout, and I assume every single fan, will tell you Dennis Cholowski is not worth a 1st in a trade. Do you beg to differ?

Cholowski would return a late 2nd early 3rd round pick. Doesn't matter because Zadina 100% returns a 1st round pick plus on top of rhe 23rd overall pick. Bottom line is Reinhart isn't worth that much especially a one year rental.

[mackel 681]

On 6/20/2021 at 8:51 PM, Neomaxizoomdweebie said:

No. He said Zadina was a bust. A top 6 winger is not a bust. If Zadina tops out as a Tatar type, I will be disappointed, but that is far from a bust when you consider how most 6 overall draft picks over the last 20 years have panned out.

Zadina is at best 3rd liner on a decent + team.  But in fairness to him our dolt of a coach is trying to make him a 200ft player... the one assest Zadina has is his shot... when he's not scoring goals he's a replacement level player.  If we want anything noteworthy out of him we should deploy him like Montreal deploys Caulfield as an offense first shooter with linemates and D to make up for the defensive coverage.

And yes Zadina has been/is a bust thus far.