2024 Draft

[stephen-gregory-yzerman 133]

1 hour ago, Axl Foley said:

There isn't any of his picks he for sure could have gotten later. That is part of the gamble.

But I can say that I did not see one mock draft that had Danielson going to Detroit at 9. Saw him going anywhere from 10 to 16.

Also he was not ranked in the top 10 of any prospect list that I saw. Elite Prospects ranked him at 13, Hockey News 22, Sportsnet 19. 

Danielson could arguably have been had later if SY traded down. A risk? Yes. But that is what the draft is.

Thats not what the draft is. the draft is targeting a player you like and taking that player with your pick not gambling.

NHL teams dont give a rats ass whos ranked where on public boards. They have there on list and take the players they like regardless what Sportsnet or TSN or the Athletic think.

[Jimmybigrigs69 367]

2 hours ago, Axl Foley said:

There isn't any of his picks he for sure could have gotten later. That is part of the gamble.

But I can say that I did not see one mock draft that had Danielson going to Detroit at 9. Saw him going anywhere from 10 to 16.

Also he was not ranked in the top 10 of any prospect list that I saw. Elite Prospects ranked him at 13, Hockey News 22, Sportsnet 19. 

Danielson could arguably have been had later if SY traded down. A risk? Yes. But that is what the draft is.

You thought he went early at 9 because you saw him ranked 10-16???

BTW Pronman ranked him as top5 at #5. Recruit scouting at 7. ESPN at 7. Central scouting at 7 (more like 11). Dobber at 12. No one was shocked to see him go at 9. 

ASP was also ranked very high by some, sometimes in the top 5, but we got him at 17.

Make your own list, and take your guy when hes available. Teams dont care what newsbros think. 

Only time trading down makes sense is if you have a Datsyuk type situation where you know nobody else has ever scouted him. 

2 hours ago, Axl Foley said:

Berggren needs to be on the roster this year. This team is lacking almost an entire 2nd line.

Yzerman already said hes on the roster next season

[Jimmybigrigs69 367]

1 hour ago, stephen-gregory-yzerman said:

Thats not what the draft is. the draft is targeting a player you like and taking that player with your pick not gambling.

NHL teams dont give a rats ass whos ranked where on public boards. They have there on list and take the players they like regardless what Sportsnet or TSN or the Athletic think.

I had Seider as the best Dman in the 2019 draft, but did not expect him to go to us at 6. McKenzie had him behind Byram, Broberg, and Soderstrom. Pronman had him behind all those guys plus York and Harley. And the bad rankings go on like that...

Imagine if SY actually bought into amatuer media hype like Holland did with Zadina...

I wanted Simashev last year. He went higher than Danielson but hes been pretty meh in the KHL since. The draft itself is the gamble. 

[stephen-gregory-yzerman 133]

3 hours ago, Jimmybigrigs69 said:

Only time trading down makes sense is if you have a Datsyuk type situation where you know nobody else has ever scouted him. 

Ya which isnt a thing anymore. You can be guaranteed any player that is a player has been scouted by most if not all teams in some capacity.

[mackel 763]

This will be fascinating to see play out... trading the pick, trading up/down, or making a selection at 15 are all in play I think.  This could be a really exciting off-season. 

[Jimmybigrigs69 367]

2 hours ago, stephen-gregory-yzerman said:

Ya which isnt a thing anymore. You can be guaranteed any player that is a player has been scouted by most if not all teams in some capacity.

Agreed. And the hockey community is very tight knit. They all talk to each other, and their evaluations probably dont vary as wildly as some would expect. Seider being a shocker at #6 was a failure by the media community. He was rocketing up team rankings that spring by the sounds of things, because he was recognized late as a German in the DEL, a league that isnt scouted as heavily. Hakan Andersson has said he normally doesnt even leave Sweden till the 2nd half of the season to scout the rest of Europe. 

IMO It would be beyond foolish to say Yzerman was a genius for selecting Seider at 6. Smart, yes, but genius no. Plenty of other teams with just as capable scouts had witnessed him. And if my dumbazz was able to see a stud in the making, they were able to too. Seider woulda been off the board in the top 10 whether we selected him or not.

Media pundits are a great way to get an idea of who to watch, but after that theyre amateurs same as you or I. And frankly, most scouts get it wrong too, so investing anything beyond a fleeting interest in public ranking is clearly regarded. 

Edited June 5, 2024 by Jimmybigrigs69

[Scott R Lucidi 675]

28 minutes ago, Jimmybigrigs69 said:

Agreed. And the hockey community is very tight knit. They all talk to each other, and their evaluations probably dont vary as wildly as some would expect. Seider being a shocker at #6 was a failure by the media community. He was rocketing up team rankings that spring by the sounds of things, because he was recognized late as a German in the DEL, a league that isnt scouted as heavily. Hakan Andersson has said he normally doesnt even leave Sweden till the 2nd half of the season to scout the rest of Europe. 

IMO It would be beyond foolish to say Yzerman was a genius for selecting Seider at 6. Smart, yes, but genius no. Plenty of other teams with just as capable scouts had witnessed him. And if my dumbazz was able to see a stud in the making, they were able to too. Seider woulda been off the board in the top 10 whether we selected him or not.

Media pundits are a great way to get an idea of who to watch, but after that theyre amateurs same as you or I. And frankly, most scouts get it wrong too, so investing anything beyond a fleeting interest in public ranking is clearly regarded. 

I dont recall you being nostrajimmy with Seider, but im happy either way.  I was positive we were taking Cozens.  I was as shocked as Seider when we took him.  The trick to being a boss at the draft is getting a couple players in the top 20-30 players.  The SCAM is a master on draft day.  He trades up and gets 2 good players usually.  That will pay off soon.  Our goalie tandem and defense Prospects are SCARY GOOD.

[Jimmybigrigs69 367]

20 minutes ago, Scott R Lucidi said:

I dont recall you being nostrajimmy with Seider, but im happy either way.  I was positive we were taking Cozens.  I was as shocked as Seider when we took him.  The trick to being a boss at the draft is getting a couple players in the top 20-30 players.  The SCAM is a master on draft day.  He trades up and gets 2 good players usually.  That will pay off soon.  Our goalie tandem and defense Prospects are SCARY GOOD.

I also didnt hate zadina if i recall

[Scott R Lucidi 675]

1 hour ago, Jimmybigrigs69 said:

I also didnt hate zadina if i recall

I wanted Dobson that draft.  I dont know why, but I didnt think Hughes or Bouchard would pan out.  After Zadina dropped out of top 5, I knew he wasnt going to be that guy.  I still thought we'd get an NHL calibur guy tho.  That draft set our rebuild back 2 years.  I cringe thinking we passed on 3 all star defensemen for a pile of crap.

[Axl Foley 334]

15 hours ago, stephen-gregory-yzerman said:

Thats not what the draft is. the draft is targeting a player you like and taking that player with your pick not gambling.

NHL teams dont give a rats ass whos ranked where on public boards. They have there on list and take the players they like regardless what Sportsnet or TSN or the Athletic think.

No it isnt. The draft is having guys you like and drafting the best one available when its your turn. Or trading up to get someone you really like. Or trading down if you think you that gets you the biggest return on investment. Doesn't one team essentially have to trade down in order for another to trade up? Are you saying that doesnt happen? are you saying that GMs dont take risks by trading down? It happens every draft. Every single move you make in the draft is a risk/gamble. I wasn't aware there were sure things in the draft.

And no one said that GMs follow public boards. But mock drafts and rankings are based on scouting reports and team needs. Kinda the same things teams use to determine draft picks, no? It's not like teams are drafting entirely different players than the analysts. The players are what they are. And if you dont think teams pay attention to rankings, then how could they possibly know who to spend the most time scouting? Why even bother to have Central Scouting at all?

 

Edited June 5, 2024 by Axl Foley

[Axl Foley 334]

12 hours ago, Jimmybigrigs69 said:

You thought he went early at 9 because you saw him ranked 10-16???

BTW Pronman ranked him as top5 at #5. Recruit scouting at 7. ESPN at 7. Central scouting at 7 (more like 11). Dobber at 12. No one was shocked to see him go at 9. 

ASP was also ranked very high by some, sometimes in the top 5, but we got him at 17.

Make your own list, and take your guy when hes available. Teams dont care what newsbros think. 

Only time trading down makes sense is if you have a Datsyuk type situation where you know nobody else has ever scouted him. 

Yzerman already said hes on the roster next season

Lol. I literally listed multiple places where he was not slated to go that high. Danielson was ranked 7th among NA Skaters by central scouting. That isn't taking into account Euros and goalies. And Dvorsky, Sale, Benson, ASP, and Wood were all available at 9. 

And I do think it was a surprise to the analysts I listed, as well as Craig Button, who had him going at 16, or Bob McKenzie, who ranked him at 15.

My point was that there are players SY might have been able to get later and acquire or dump assets in the process if he was willing to take the risk. We can never know without knowing who the next team was who wanted said player. I dont see why that is so problematic.

 

[Axl Foley 334]

13 hours ago, Jimmybigrigs69 said:

I had Seider as the best Dman in the 2019 draft, but did not expect him to go to us at 6. McKenzie had him behind Byram, Broberg, and Soderstrom. Pronman had him behind all those guys plus York and Harley. And the bad rankings go on like that...

Imagine if SY actually bought into amatuer media hype like Holland did with Zadina...

I wanted Simashev last year. He went higher than Danielson but hes been pretty meh in the KHL since. The draft itself is the gamble. 

It wasnt amateur media hype. Zadina was listed 3rd among NA skaters by CS and Dahlin was arguably the only skater on the Euro side to rank higher. It wasnt just Holland, even professional scouts, guys paid to evaluate talent, were fooled.

[stephen-gregory-yzerman 133]

16 hours ago, Axl Foley said:

Danielson could arguably have been had later if SY traded down. A risk? Yes. But that is what the draft is.

 

51 minutes ago, Axl Foley said:

No it isnt. The draft is having guys you like and drafting the best one available when its your turn. 

2 contradicting statements.

52 minutes ago, Axl Foley said:

Or trading up to get someone you really like. Or trading down if you think you that gets you the biggest return on investment. Doesn't one team essentially have to trade down in order for another to trade up? Are you saying that doesnt happen? are you saying that GMs dont take risks by trading down? It happens every draft. Every single move you make in the draft is a risk/gamble. I wasn't aware there were sure things in the draft.

As rare as it is Im not saying teams dont make trades in round 1 Im saying they dont gamble and trade back when the player they really like available at there pick.

57 minutes ago, Axl Foley said:

And no one said that GMs follow public boards. But mock drafts and rankings are based on scouting reports and team needs. Kinda the same things teams use to determine draft picks, no? It's not like teams are drafting entirely different players than the analysts. The players are what they are. And if you dont think teams pay attention to rankings, then how could they possibly know who to spend the most time scouting?

How could they possibly know who to spend the most time scouting? lol I dont know maybe based on there own scouting staff that put in Xx more hours watching these kids most 2-3 years leading up to there draft year. Teams dont base who theyr gonna scout on public rankings. Im sure they look at them just to make sure theres no major outliers in which case they might circle back and have another look but they def dont base any sort of opinion on players based on the public.

[stephen-gregory-yzerman 133]

36 minutes ago, Axl Foley said:

Lol. I literally listed multiple places where he was not slated to go that high. Danielson was ranked 7th among NA Skaters by central scouting. That isn't taking into account Euros and goalies. And Dvorsky, Sale, Benson, ASP, and Wood were all available at 9. 

And I do think it was a surprise to the analysts I listed, as well as Craig Button, who had him going at 16, or Bob McKenzie, who ranked him at 15.

My point was that there are players SY might have been able to get later and acquire or dump assets in the process if he was willing to take the risk. We can never know without knowing who the next team was who wanted said player. I dont see why that is so problematic.

What do Craig Button or Bob McKenzie or anyone else have to do with Steve Yzerman and the Red WIngs org? Nothing. For all we know Yzerman had Danielson as the 5th best prospect in the draft, he slipped to 9, and didnt like any of the other players you mentioned. Why would he take a risk losing that player which he most def would of for another mid asset. This team has arguably the deepest farm system in the league but still lacks elite talent. We need quality not quantity. Yzerman shouldnt even consider trading back at this point. If anything package our 1st, 2nd, prospect to move up and get another top 10 pick.

[Motor City Mullets 303]

10 hours ago, mackel said:

This will be fascinating to see play out... trading the pick, trading up/down, or making a selection at 15 are all in play I think.  This could be a really exciting off-season. 

For me I'm all for trading the 15th OA pick if it means bringing in a top 4 Dman, or top 6 forward.

[kipwinger 8,755]

Read an article that said New Jersey is open to moving the 10th overall pick for help winning now.

[stephen-gregory-yzerman 133]

1 hour ago, kipwinger said:

Read an article that said New Jersey is open to moving the 10th overall pick for help winning now.

Wonder what it would cost to move up those 5 spots? Depending on the cost Id strongly consider it to get one of Catton or Eiserman.

[Jimmybigrigs69 367]

4 hours ago, Axl Foley said:

Lol. I literally listed multiple places where he was not slated to go that high.

Yup, I read your post. If you would care to read mine, he was ranked higher than 9 as well. So you're incorrect about Danielson being a reach at 9. 

4 hours ago, Axl Foley said:

Danielson was ranked 7th among NA Skaters by central scouting. That isn't taking into account Euros and goalies. And Dvorsky, Sale, Benson, ASP, and Wood were all available at 9.

See below

18 hours ago, Jimmybigrigs69 said:

Central scouting at 7 (more like 11).

X4 Euros went ahead of him. 

4 hours ago, Axl Foley said:

And I do think it was a surprise to the analysts I listed, as well as Craig Button, who had him going at 16, or Bob McKenzie, who ranked him at 15.

Selection bias. Try reading more than 2-3 draft opinions. Pronman is a pretty huge voice in the draft community that you conviently ignored. He had Danny as top 5. 

5 hours ago, Axl Foley said:

My point was that there are players SY might have been able to get later and acquire or dump assets in the process if he was willing to take the risk. We can never know without knowing who the next team was who wanted said player. I dont see why that is so problematic.

If its pick #9, but your next draft target isn't projected to go to till the 2nd round, it makes sense to trade down. 

If it's pick #9, and your next draft target is ranked 5-16, you take your guy. 

Make sense?

[Jimmybigrigs69 367]

5 hours ago, Axl Foley said:

It wasnt amateur media hype. Zadina was listed 3rd among NA skaters by CS and Dahlin was arguably the only skater on the Euro side to rank higher. It wasnt just Holland, even professional scouts, guys paid to evaluate talent, were fooled.

Then why did 3 teams pass on him? 

[Jimmybigrigs69 367]

6 hours ago, Axl Foley said:

And no one said that GMs follow public boards. But mock drafts and rankings are based on scouting reports and team needs. Kinda the same things teams use to determine draft picks, no? It's not like teams are drafting entirely different players than the analysts. The players are what they are. And if you dont think teams pay attention to rankings, then how could they possibly know who to spend the most time scouting? Why even bother to have Central Scouting at all?

You cant be serious? You think CSS exists to direct teams on who to scout? Wild

First off, CSS exists because in the expansion era teams couldnt afford robust scouting depts, or travel. So they created a scouting service to help. Back then rankings were private, but for like the last 30+ years CSS makes all their rankings public, because teams no longer rely on them for scouting needs. They are literally just a central database for the public. 

Seondly, CSS employs 15 scouts plus part timers. The wings alone have 15 full time amatuer scouts including Draper and Yzerman. And teams start scouting players wayyyyy before CSS does. Teams are scouting players as young as 14 and developing working draft lists for drafts well in the future. If anything CSS and the league likely rely on all 32 teams to give them rough direction on who to scout each year. And rest assured teams omit their gems, steals, and other inside tracks. 

Lastly, CSS only ranks draft eligble players based on skills (shooting, skating, etc) and how well those skills would translate to the NHL. They do not have meetings with players, coaches, or managers, they do not evaluate things like character, attitudes, potential, growth, practice habits, fitness, playing big in big moments, readiness for pros, on and on and on. 

Teams know way beyond what you, or I, or analysts, or CSS does. 

[kipwinger 8,755]

6 minutes ago, stephen-gregory-yzerman said:

Wonder what it would cost to move up those 5 spots? Depending on the cost Id strongly consider it to get one of Catton or Eiserman.

I'd imagine it's all situationally dependent. I don't really know what New Jersey needs but the article quoted their GM as saying something like "whoever we take with this pick won't be ready to contribute for another 5 years". They want to win now, so you'd have to imagine they'd want pieces that can help with that. My guess is that the package starts with the 15th OA pick plus Berggren/Walman.

[Jimmybigrigs69 367]

9 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

I'd imagine it's all situationally dependent. I don't really know what New Jersey needs but the article quoted their GM as saying something like "whoever we take with this pick won't be ready to contribute for another 5 years". They want to win now, so you'd have to imagine they'd want pieces that can help with that. My guess is that the package starts with the 15th OA pick plus Berggren/Walman.

My suspicion was theyre still trying to pry Markstrom out of CGY. Throwing their 1st onto the market to drive up interest may get CGY to finally bite, before Boston trades them Ullmark or something.

[TLGTrico 660]

Just like last year, I don't think I care who we take.  At this point in time I still trust Yzerman to make the right pick

[town123 231]

Since we'll probably be drafting in the 20's range starting next year, I hope SY takes a shot at someone he loves that falls to 6-8 range.    

[stephen-gregory-yzerman 133]

59 minutes ago, town123 said:

Since we'll probably be drafting in the 20's range starting next year, I hope SY takes a shot at someone he loves that falls to 6-8 range.    

If Berkly Cattons available in the 10-12 range I hope Yzerman trades up a few spots. I think the price would be too steep to trade up in that 6-8 range though.