Dispelling some myths: the Pittsburgh Penguins

[betterREDthandead 58]

OK.....long post coming up. It's been kind of brewing ever since both teams were up 3-0, so bear with me.

First, some truths in the "credit where credit is due" category.

- The Penguins are the first team the Wings have faced these playoffs that we're not obviously better than. That is a fact. And the same is true in reverse. These are, without any doubt in my mind, the two best teams in the league. So any prediction that ends with "in 5" means you're only fooling yourself.

- The Pittsburgh offense is scary talented. They have four players who have produced over a point a game these playoffs. Focus on Crosby and Malkin, and Malone and Hossa will burn you. All their centers can score and make plays.

- The Penguins are nothing if not rested, having breezed through the first three rounds. They will be supremely confident. This can work both ways. Confidence can put you in the best frame of mind, but it can also disappear quick if you find it's not as easy as you thought....and once you fall off that hill it's nigh-impossible to get back up in a 7 game series.

Now, to the myths:

#1: The Penguins have an especially lethal power play.

The Penguins have a very good and talented power play. It is top-5 in the league. The Wings were fortunately to play against teams in the first round with absolutely rotten power plays, and Dallas was mediocre. But the numbers don't lie: the Penguins' power play in the regular season was 20.4%. The Wings: 20.7%. During the playoffs the Penguins have been at 25%, but the sample size is too small - take away just two goals and they're right there with the Wings again. The Penguins have a good power play but it is far from lethal, and it will be sorely tested against the Wings' superior penalty killing, which unlike most teams, challenges the offense all the way through neutral ice.

#2: The Penguins defense is on par with, or even better than, the Wings'.

The most incorrect of anything said about the Pens. Their defense is much improved - they gave up 100 fewer goals than they did two years ago and have moved into the realm of respectability. And they've done even better in the playoffs, but again: the playoffs are far too small a sample size for this.

Consider the personnel:

Lidstrom is better than Gonchar

Rafalski is better than Whitney

Kronwall is better than Orpik

Stuart is better than Gill

Chelios is better than Scuderi

Letang is the only one I'd give an edge to. All the way down at 6th defenseman. Forwards? Kris Draper is a Selke winner. Datsyuk or Zetterberg are finalists this year - one of them should win.

Pittsburgh is a good defensive team. Detroit is a great one.

#3. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are a better duo than Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg.

Higher scoring and younger? Obviously. But again: which two are nominated for the Selke Trophy, and which two are not? To be a better player instead of a better scorer, you must be well-rounded. Malkin saw an average of 48 seconds of shorthanded ice time per game this season; Crosby, 42 seconds. Datsyuk had 1:47 of SH ice time per game; Zetterberg, 2:09. In the playoffs, Crosby has dropped to just 9 seconds per game. This tells me that the Penguins generally only put their golden boys on the ice during the last few seconds of a penalty kill so they can be out there right away. Datsyuk and Zetterberg are penalty killers. To know that drawing a penalty takes the Penguins' best players off the ice - that is a huge advantage.

#4. The Wings have experience, but the Pens are younger and hungrier and that is an advantage.

Dallas Drake is 39 and now has his first crack at the Cup - you can bet he's gonna be fired up. Appearing in Gatorade ads with your best I Are Serious Cat face does not make you hungrier.

#5. The Pens have the advantage in net because Marc-Andre Fleury is playing his lights out.

This one and the defense thing are mutually exclusive and it's funny on the semi-rare occasion someone tries to bring them both up at once. So Chris Osgood's numbers are because the team in front of him is playing so well, but Fleury's are not.....yet the Pens defense is better than the Wings. Hm.

In any case, the Avs and Stars were both said to have a tremendous advantage in net. This clearly did not materialize as the Wings shelled both Theodore and Turco into oblivion. The Wings play a style designed to make the opposing goalie see as many shots as possible, which Fleury has not seen. I see nothing that sets Fleury apart from the other two, other than perhaps lacking Turco's JLA albatross. So I see no reason why the outcome should be any different.

#6. Coming back from 3 down in Game 1 against the Rangers is enough adversity to prepare the Baby Pens for what they're going to face in the finals.

ROFLCOPTER.

OK, that one was only proposed by a guy who was tilting and on his way to bannination. But still. I sure hope nobody actually believed it.

Finish up with a stat that should make Pens fans nervous: SOG differential. For the Pens: +4.4 SPG in the playoffs...but only +1.2 after the Ottawa series. For the Wings: +12.7, +10.5 after Nashville. Point being: not only do the Wings play a very, very different style of play than the Pens are used to seeing, they do it very, very well. No team will ever win a 7 game series by giving up 10 extra shots per game. Even with a save percentage as gaudy as Fleury's, that's like a free extra goal.

Wings in 6.

[Wings_Dynasty 267]

Wings in 5.

[VM1138 1,921]

I won't go so far as to make predictions, but your post really cut through a lot of the superficial stuff. Good analysis.

I'd also add that the teams are equally deep.

The overall gist of all the analysis? These are two behemoths ready to stand toe to toe.

But of course, I give the Wings the edge for defense and just super awesomeness.

[DRW Dominance 255]

Nice breakdown and I agree with everything you said and it wasn't even stated in a cocky manor. Just the truth.

[sixer 37]

Wings in 5.

Agreed

[DYags 0]

Wings in 5.

I'll disagree in the hopes that I'm wrong.. (I have game 5 tickets )

[Saran 1]

awesome post i dunno who would think pens D is even comparable to ours, wings in 5 not 6

[sdogg1m 3]

I agree with everything you said except Wings in 4.

The Pittburgh Penguins look much like the 95 Wings (same record even). We know what happened when the Wings faced a defensive minded New Jersey Devils.

[VM1138 1,921]

awesome post i dunno who would think pens D is even comparable to ours, wings in 5 not 6

I don't know about 5 games. Defense or not they can score a lot of goals, and their speed will be a challenge.

[kylee 727]

this thread is awesome, everyone should give it a read. well done.

[sdogg1m 3]

this thread is awesome, everyone should give it a read. well done.

I believe one other factor that should be mentioned that even Burnside missed and that is the faceoff factor. Detroit is a beast in winning faceoffs and Pittsburgh is not that good. It will be difficult for them to work if they are chasing the puck.

[Detroit # 1 Fan 2,204]

Great post BRTD. I would however say Wings in 5.

[norrisnick 1]

OK.....long post coming up. It's been kind of brewing ever since both teams were up 3-0, so bear with me.

First, some truths in the "credit where credit is due" category.

- The Penguins are the first team the Wings have faced these playoffs that we're not obviously better than. That is a fact. And the same is true in reverse. These are, without any doubt in my mind, the two best teams in the league. So any prediction that ends with "in 5" means you're only fooling yourself.

- The Pittsburgh offense is scary talented. They have four players who have produced over a point a game these playoffs. Focus on Crosby and Malkin, and Malone and Hossa will burn you. All their centers can score and make plays.

- The Penguins are nothing if not rested, having breezed through the first three rounds. They will be supremely confident. This can work both ways. Confidence can put you in the best frame of mind, but it can also disappear quick if you find it's not as easy as you thought....and once you fall off that hill it's nigh-impossible to get back up in a 7 game series.

Now, to the myths:

#1: The Penguins have an especially lethal power play.

The Penguins have a very good and talented power play. It is top-5 in the league. The Wings were fortunately to play against teams in the first round with absolutely rotten power plays, and Dallas was mediocre. But the numbers don't lie: the Penguins' power play in the regular season was 20.4%. The Wings: 20.7%. During the playoffs the Penguins have been at 25%, but the sample size is too small - take away just two goals and they're right there with the Wings again. The Penguins have a good power play but it is far from lethal, and it will be sorely tested against the Wings' superior penalty killing, which unlike most teams, challenges the offense all the way through neutral ice.

#2: The Penguins defense is on par with, or even better than, the Wings'.

The most incorrect of anything said about the Pens. Their defense is much improved - they gave up 100 fewer goals than they did two years ago and have moved into the realm of respectability. And they've done even better in the playoffs, but again: the playoffs are far too small a sample size for this.

Consider the personnel:

Lidstrom is better than Gonchar

Rafalski is better than Whitney

Kronwall is better than Orpik

Stuart is better than Gill

Chelios is better than Scuderi

Letang is the only one I'd give an edge to. All the way down at 6th defenseman. Forwards? Kris Draper is a Selke winner. Datsyuk or Zetterberg are finalists this year - one of them should win.

Pittsburgh is a good defensive team. Detroit is a great one.

#3. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are a better duo than Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg.

Higher scoring and younger? Obviously. But again: which two are nominated for the Selke Trophy, and which two are not? To be a better player instead of a better scorer, you must be well-rounded. Malkin saw an average of 48 seconds of shorthanded ice time per game this season; Crosby, 42 seconds. Datsyuk had 1:47 of SH ice time per game; Zetterberg, 2:09. In the playoffs, Crosby has dropped to just 9 seconds per game. This tells me that the Penguins generally only put their golden boys on the ice during the last few seconds of a penalty kill so they can be out there right away. Datsyuk and Zetterberg are penalty killers. To know that drawing a penalty takes the Penguins' best players off the ice - that is a huge advantage.

#4. The Wings have experience, but the Pens are younger and hungrier and that is an advantage.

Dallas Drake is 39 and now has his first crack at the Cup - you can bet he's gonna be fired up. Appearing in Gatorade ads with your best I Are Serious Cat face does not make you hungrier.

#5. The Pens have the advantage in net because Marc-Andre Fleury is playing his lights out.

This one and the defense thing are mutually exclusive and it's funny on the semi-rare occasion someone tries to bring them both up at once. So Chris Osgood's numbers are because the team in front of him is playing so well, but Fleury's are not.....yet the Pens defense is better than the Wings. Hm.

In any case, the Avs and Stars were both said to have a tremendous advantage in net. This clearly did not materialize as the Wings shelled both Theodore and Turco into oblivion. The Wings play a style designed to make the opposing goalie see as many shots as possible, which Fleury has not seen. I see nothing that sets Fleury apart from the other two, other than perhaps lacking Turco's JLA albatross. So I see no reason why the outcome should be any different.

#6. Coming back from 3 down in Game 1 against the Rangers is enough adversity to prepare the Baby Pens for what they're going to face in the finals.

ROFLCOPTER.

OK, that one was only proposed by a guy who was tilting and on his way to bannination. But still. I sure hope nobody actually believed it.

Finish up with a stat that should make Pens fans nervous: SOG differential. For the Pens: +4.4 SPG in the playoffs...but only +1.2 after the Ottawa series. For the Wings: +12.7, +10.5 after Nashville. Point being: not only do the Wings play a very, very different style of play than the Pens are used to seeing, they do it very, very well. No team will ever win a 7 game series by giving up 10 extra shots per game. Even with a save percentage as gaudy as Fleury's, that's like a free extra goal.

Wings in 6.

You forgot another big one. Wings' FO% is 55.7%. The Pens' FO% is 46.7%.

Pens will be chasing all series long. Doesn't bode well for them.

[Rice 42]

#4. The Wings have experience, but the Pens are younger and hungrier and that is an advantage.

Dallas Drake is 39 and now has his first crack at the Cup - you can bet he's gonna be fired up. Appearing in Gatorade ads with your best I Are Serious Cat face does not make you hungrier.

Great post, BRTD, and this "myth" is one I really have a problem with.

People look at the Wings as an old team. While that would be true three or four years ago, it's not anymore. Chelios, Lidstrom, and Hasek are the oldest players on the team. Chelios is a PK specialist, Hasek is riding the pine, and Lidstrom is the best player in the NHL. After that, you have role players like Maltby, Draper, and Drake. These guys are veterans who know how to win and are simply there to grind down the opposition. Then there's Holmstrom, who is the best net-front player in the league. Then you have Rafalski (a top 10 NHL defenseman) who is not too old at 34 and Osgood who is playing lights out at 35.

From there, most of the team is young: Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Franzen, Cleary, Kronwall, Stuart, Filppula, and Helm are all under 30.

The Wings have an excellent combination of youth and experience and it's the youth that often gets overlooked.

[DYags 0]

I believe one other factor that should be mentioned that even Burnside missed and that is the faceoff factor. Detroit is a beast in winning faceoffs and Pittsburgh is not that good. It will be difficult for them to work if they are chasing the puck.

Very good thing to point out, esp. on the PP and PK. Like one of the Pens fans pointed out, they basically play a minute long PP because they stake all their forwards on the first unit. With Detroits ability to dominate the circle we should be able to continue to dominate the first 30-40 seconds of a PK

[Graybeard 0]

You forgot another big one. Wings' FO% is 55.7%. The Pens' FO% is 46.7%.

Pens will be chasing all series long. Doesn't bode well for them.

You just nailed what will probably be the deciding factor in this series.

[betterREDthandead 58]

You forgot another big one. Wings' FO% is 55.7%. The Pens' FO% is 46.7%.

Pens will be chasing all series long. Doesn't bode well for them.

Excellent point both of you on the faceoffs.

That goes for the "who's the better duo" argument too. Crosby is OK at them....he clocks in right around 50% pretty much. Malkin is absolutely brutal on faceoffs. Downright awful. For the regular season he couldn't even muster 40%, which in the world of faceoff statistics is indescribably horrible.

Zetterberg and Datsyuk each win about 55%, which for faceoffs is one step shy of elite. During the playoffs Z has won 57.9%. That'd be phenomenal if Kris Draper wasn't putting every single center in the league to shame.

[RedWingedKitten 9]

If we can run our system they won't have the puck, thus eliminating there offense. Only then will there defense truly be tested.

It can be done my friends.

Edited May 21, 2008 by RedWingedKitten

[Elshupacabra 0]

Excellent point both of you on the faceoffs.

That goes for the "who's the better duo" argument too. Crosby is OK at them....he clocks in right around 50% pretty much. Malkin is absolutely brutal on faceoffs. Downright awful. For the regular season he couldn't even muster 40%, which in the world of faceoff statistics is indescribably horrible.

Zetterberg and Datsyuk each win about 55%, which for faceoffs is one step shy of elite. During the playoffs Z has won 57.9%. That'd be phenomenal if Kris Draper wasn't putting every single center in the league to shame.

Just out of curiosity, what does Draper's percentage work out to for the playoffs?

Edited May 21, 2008 by Elshupacabra

[Vincanni 1]

Great post and I agree with most everything as well as the FO% observation, which I honestly can't believe has not been discussed more. I guarantee though the moment we go up in the series it'll be brought to light and talked about constantly.

[betterREDthandead 58]

Just out of curiosity, what does Draper's percentage work out to for the playoffs?

63.4%. That's not quite unheard-of (Yanic Perreault tends to put up those kinds of numbers), but it's near legendary.

[C-Dub 0]

Wings in 5.

:w00t2: :w00t2: :w00t2:

Yeah, baby!

I say Wings in 6 though...

[DYags 0]

Just out of curiosity, what does Draper's percentage work out to for the playoffs?

Almost positive its in the low 60s but I couldn't find a source to back that up..

[reggiedunlop 0]

OK.....long post coming up. It's been kind of brewing ever since both teams were up 3-0, so bear with me.

First, some truths in the "credit where credit is due" category.

- The Penguins are the first team the Wings have faced these playoffs that we're not obviously better than. That is a fact. And the same is true in reverse. These are, without any doubt in my mind, the two best teams in the league. So any prediction that ends with "in 5" means you're only fooling yourself.

- The Pittsburgh offense is scary talented. They have four players who have produced over a point a game these playoffs. Focus on Crosby and Malkin, and Malone and Hossa will burn you. All their centers can score and make plays.

- The Penguins are nothing if not rested, having breezed through the first three rounds. They will be supremely confident. This can work both ways. Confidence can put you in the best frame of mind, but it can also disappear quick if you find it's not as easy as you thought....and once you fall off that hill it's nigh-impossible to get back up in a 7 game series.

Now, to the myths:

#1: The Penguins have an especially lethal power play.

The Penguins have a very good and talented power play. It is top-5 in the league. The Wings were fortunately to play against teams in the first round with absolutely rotten power plays, and Dallas was mediocre. But the numbers don't lie: the Penguins' power play in the regular season was 20.4%. The Wings: 20.7%. During the playoffs the Penguins have been at 25%, but the sample size is too small - take away just two goals and they're right there with the Wings again. The Penguins have a good power play but it is far from lethal, and it will be sorely tested against the Wings' superior penalty killing, which unlike most teams, challenges the offense all the way through neutral ice.

#2: The Penguins defense is on par with, or even better than, the Wings'.

The most incorrect of anything said about the Pens. Their defense is much improved - they gave up 100 fewer goals than they did two years ago and have moved into the realm of respectability. And they've done even better in the playoffs, but again: the playoffs are far too small a sample size for this.

Consider the personnel:

Lidstrom is better than Gonchar

Rafalski is better than Whitney

Kronwall is better than Orpik

Stuart is better than Gill

Chelios is better than Scuderi

Letang is the only one I'd give an edge to. All the way down at 6th defenseman. Forwards? Kris Draper is a Selke winner. Datsyuk or Zetterberg are finalists this year - one of them should win.

Pittsburgh is a good defensive team. Detroit is a great one.

#3. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are a better duo than Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg.

Higher scoring and younger? Obviously. But again: which two are nominated for the Selke Trophy, and which two are not? To be a better player instead of a better scorer, you must be well-rounded. Malkin saw an average of 48 seconds of shorthanded ice time per game this season; Crosby, 42 seconds. Datsyuk had 1:47 of SH ice time per game; Zetterberg, 2:09. In the playoffs, Crosby has dropped to just 9 seconds per game. This tells me that the Penguins generally only put their golden boys on the ice during the last few seconds of a penalty kill so they can be out there right away. Datsyuk and Zetterberg are penalty killers. To know that drawing a penalty takes the Penguins' best players off the ice - that is a huge advantage.

#4. The Wings have experience, but the Pens are younger and hungrier and that is an advantage.

Dallas Drake is 39 and now has his first crack at the Cup - you can bet he's gonna be fired up. Appearing in Gatorade ads with your best I Are Serious Cat face does not make you hungrier.

#5. The Pens have the advantage in net because Marc-Andre Fleury is playing his lights out.

This one and the defense thing are mutually exclusive and it's funny on the semi-rare occasion someone tries to bring them both up at once. So Chris Osgood's numbers are because the team in front of him is playing so well, but Fleury's are not.....yet the Pens defense is better than the Wings. Hm.

In any case, the Avs and Stars were both said to have a tremendous advantage in net. This clearly did not materialize as the Wings shelled both Theodore and Turco into oblivion. The Wings play a style designed to make the opposing goalie see as many shots as possible, which Fleury has not seen. I see nothing that sets Fleury apart from the other two, other than perhaps lacking Turco's JLA albatross. So I see no reason why the outcome should be any different.

#6. Coming back from 3 down in Game 1 against the Rangers is enough adversity to prepare the Baby Pens for what they're going to face in the finals.

ROFLCOPTER.

OK, that one was only proposed by a guy who was tilting and on his way to bannination. But still. I sure hope nobody actually believed it.

Finish up with a stat that should make Pens fans nervous: SOG differential. For the Pens: +4.4 SPG in the playoffs...but only +1.2 after the Ottawa series. For the Wings: +12.7, +10.5 after Nashville. Point being: not only do the Wings play a very, very different style of play than the Pens are used to seeing, they do it very, very well. No team will ever win a 7 game series by giving up 10 extra shots per game. Even with a save percentage as gaudy as Fleury's, that's like a free extra goal.

Wings in 6.

DISPELLING THE MYTH OF MYTHS

#1..... you cannot say sample size is too small to fit your liking. 25% in playoffs is 25% in playoffs. if the wings take stupid penalties, they will pay.

#2...... wings have the edge in defense. cannot argue with you there. whitney will own the norris trophy for the next decade, gonchar is a candidate this year. you certainly have better offensive defensemen but you have no one as "stay home, hard hitting" as orpik. you have not faced as aggressive a forecheck as the pens. as i think we are the more offensively deep team, look for some of your "elder" defensemen to be a little slow come the third period.

#3....... hossa played a fraction of the season on a good team. HE IS AS GOOD A BACKCHECKER AS THERE IS IN THE GAME. if he had played the whole season as a pen, he would be up for the award as well. every player has a role, and crosby and malkings role is not to kill penalties. if you have watched any of our series you know that crosby can play defense with any forward out there.

#4......... youth vs experience. our entire season was filled with adversity losing crosby and fleury..... they held up just fine...... youth does not care that drake is 39 and chelios is 62, they are full of ignorance and cockiness that comes with youth........ but drake and chelios will certainly feel their age as games and the series go forward.

#5......... fleury is the better goalie based on agility and skill. correct he has not seen the rubber detroit will throw but FLEURY CAN STEAL A GAME FOR THE PENS, where osgood cannot. (in my humble opinion of course)

#6...... the sun will rise, you will pay taxes, and the pens will be outshot....... such is the way of the world...... but our goals per shot percentage is lights out ....... if they DO throw pucks at the net like they should..... osgood will be replace by hasek in short order.......

should be one heck of a series........ cant wait to watch it............. good luck

Edited May 21, 2008 by reggiedunlop

[Echolalia 2,961]

Wings in 5

Also: pretty good summary, although I disagree about the 10 extra shots per game equaling a victory in a seven game series. Just about every playoff series we lost this millennium we have outshot the opponent by a hefty margin.