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Guest Crymson

Flyers sign Weber to offer sheet: 14y/$110m ($56m 1st 4yrs)

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You can't possibly pay a player more than Weber will be making for the next few years. On top of that if he gets him, it also costs him 4 first round draft picks.

Weber is a great defenceman but he isn't the best player in the NHL

No one is saying he's the best player in the NHL, he's just one of the top three -- if not the best -- player at his position and he's now compensated as such. Regardless, the cost of successfully prying a player away via offer sheet -- and offer sheets for *any* players, for that matter -- is done via two ways: vast overpayment or handcuffing a franchise via poison pill(s).

I don't believe Weber is overpaid in this case over the term of the contract, but in order for the Flyers to even pry him from Nashville they had to put in a monster of a poison pill to the tune of $52 million in bonus money alone over the first four years that cannot be reduced by a new CBA-forced salary rollback.

That's $52 million over the first four years no matter what. Period. No way to get around that, have it reduced by 24% Rollback Part 2, etc., etc..

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I agree that Weber is one of the top 3 at his position, but I don't necessarily think that justifies a max deal.

You said it yourself, it was a poison pill to prevent Nashville from matching. If they offered him his market value Nashville would definitely match.

You will never land a player via offer sheet without overpaying. I'm not saying Philly made a mistake, I'm just rejecting the notion that signing someone to an offer-sheet is somehow a more prudent strategy than overpaying via trade or signing. Its all overpaying, what difference does it make which way you do it?

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No one is saying he's the best player in the NHL, he's just one of the top three -- if not the best -- player at his position and he's now compensated as such. Regardless, the cost of successfully prying a player away via offer sheet -- and offer sheets for *any* players, for that matter -- is done via two ways: vast overpayment or handcuffing a franchise via poison pill(s).

I don't believe Weber is overpaid in this case over the term of the contract, but in order for the Flyers to even pry him from Nashville they had to put in a monster of a poison pill to the tune of $52 million in bonus money alone over the first four years that cannot be reduced by a new CBA-forced salary rollback.

That's $52 million over the first four years no matter what. Period. No way to get around that, have it reduced by 24% Rollback Part 2, etc., etc..

I think the general consensus is that he's getting the $52M or 56M, whatever the bonus money is regardless (i.e. no way it could be reduced via rollback, etc.), but I'm guessing it is theoretically possible that something is negotiated in the new CBA such that those bonus amounts could be reduced. Anything is possible of both sides agree to it I would assume.

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You can't possibly pay a player more than Weber will be making for the next few years. On top of that if he gets him, it also costs him 4 first round draft picks.

Weber is a great defenceman but he isn't the best player in the NHL

You could easily make a case Weber is the best d-man in the NHL. The likelihood of any of the first round picks being as good as Weber is very slim. Especially since the Flyers will probably be picking lower in the first round.

Given other contracts in the league right now, this is a very reasonable deal for an elite player. The 14 years is insane, but Weber may not even play out the entire contract and he's in his prime right now.

This was a really shrewd move by Holmgren and the Flyers. Taking advantage of the system before it changes drastically. I'm starting to think today that Nashville won't match either.

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Poile will match this. I said in another thread last week that Weber would ink a long term deal before the CBA expires. The idea that Nashville can't afford to pay its players is ignorant. This is a different ownership group. Poile had equal offers on the table for Suter and Parise. Saying Philly "hamstrung" Nashville with a front loaded deal is ignorant as well. They did Nashville a favor here.

Also, the idea that Weber wants out of Nashville is not true. Really think he was gonna gamble 14 yrs of his career if he wanted out? Weber will be happy as hell in Nashville, even more so when that direct deposit hits his bank account every month. And since there isn't a state income tax in Tennessee, that check is gonna look a lot nicer than it would in Philly.

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The Flyers did sign Weber to a market value deal -- they just front-loaded it, and that's the key difference here. His AAV is right in line with other comparable elite players for their positions. I don't think the Red Wings would have any qualms throwing an offer out there like this: they have the financial wherewithal and the desperate need to improve at that position. I just wish Holland would throw the "pointless" or "not our modus operandi" that St. James mentions out the window.... You have to change with the times, and if Philadelphia lands a franchise defenseman that roams their blueline for the next 10 years, it was worth it.

That players of the caliber of Suter and Weber were both even available is shocking (less so since they're from the same team, however) and increasingly frustrating that the Red Wings didn't grab one or the other with such a glaring need (despite the salary requirements -- they needed one).

The four 1st-rounders don't concern me when it's a franchise defenseman.

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The Flyers did sign Weber to a market value deal -- they just front-loaded it, and that's the key difference here. His AAV is right in line with other comparable elite players for their positions. I don't think the Red Wings would have any qualms throwing an offer out there like this: they have the financial wherewithal and the desperate need to improve at that position. I just wish Holland would throw the "pointless" or "not our modus operandi" that St. James mentions out the window.... You have to change with the times, and if Philadelphia lands a franchise defenseman that roams their blueline for the next 10 years, it was worth it.

That players of the caliber of Suter and Weber were both even available is shocking (less so since they're from the same team, however) and increasingly frustrating that the Red Wings didn't grab one or the other with such a glaring need (despite the salary requirements -- they needed one).

The four 1st-rounders don't concern me when it's a franchise defenseman.

I think the concern was less about the four first-rounders and more about the fact that throwing an offer sheet at Weber might have guaranteed that he'd be a Predator for the length of the contract offered.

Based on what the Predators end up doing, we'll see if you were correct or not. That said, I think that the Predators would have been even more likely to match an equivalent offer sheet from a rival within their division.

Edited by Crymson

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I think the general consensus is that he's getting the $52M or 56M, whatever the bonus money is regardless (i.e. no way it could be reduced via rollback, etc.), but I'm guessing it is theoretically possible that something is negotiated in the new CBA such that those bonus amounts could be reduced. Anything is possible of both sides agree to it I would assume.

I would be shocked if that's not adjusted in some way. It's really only taken such huge precedence this summer -- and to a lesser degree, last summer, too -- because of the impact on a potential salary rollback with the CBA. A nice little "offshore" account for players with the bonus money this year, protected from Bettman's grubby little hands.

Just to throw a number out there for shiggles: If there was a 25% salary rollback starting next season, Shea Weber would only earn $55 of his $56 million. Oh, the horror! :lol:

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I don't think Nashville would be any more likely to match a Red Wings offer sheet than the Flyers. Trading with Detroit is a different story.

The front-loaded part of the deal is something the Red Wings have done before and was an incredibly smart move by Holmgren. That's the catch that will determine if Nashville can match or not.

I think an offer sheet for Weber would have been worth it for the Red Wings even if it meant the risk of keeping Weber in the Central. They are desperate for a top pairing d-man and there are very few options available. It isn't in Holland's nature to do so, but you make an exception for a player like Weber.

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The Flyers did sign Weber to a market value deal -- they just front-loaded it, and that's the key difference here. His AAV is right in line with other comparable elite players for their positions. I don't think the Red Wings would have any qualms throwing an offer out there like this: they have the financial wherewithal and the desperate need to improve at that position. I just wish Holland would throw the "pointless" or "not our modus operandi" that St. James mentions out the window.... You have to change with the times, and if Philadelphia lands a franchise defenseman that roams their blueline for the next 10 years, it was worth it.

That players of the caliber of Suter and Weber were both even available is shocking (less so since they're from the same team, however) and increasingly frustrating that the Red Wings didn't grab one or the other with such a glaring need (despite the salary requirements -- they needed one).

The four 1st-rounders don't concern me when it's a franchise defenseman.

I'd be pretty surprised if the Wings signed someone to a cap hit over 8 mil.

I agree he's one of the best, if not the best defenceman out there, but 8.38 is an awfully big cap hit to carry for 13 years, especially with a cap rollback being almost a certainty.

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I was really bummed by this news, and I've been a little surprised by how little attention there was being paid to Weber on LGW, vis a vis the other options out there. I think a lot of people assumed that an offer sheet wasn't going to happen, but why not? Yes, 4 first rounders is a huge price to pay, but if you fashion yourself as an elite team...not as much as you think. Once you get in the back end of the 1st round, I'm not sure the odds of finding a "sleeper" are much stronger at that spot than they are in the late 2nd or 3rd rounds. And the odds of any of the next 4 picks turning out to be...Shea Weber...well, that's practically non-existent.

As for the salary...sigh. As long as the CBA is going to allow deals to be structured like this, why not? Weber is a game changing defenseman who is not even 27 years old yet. He has one of the most dominant point shots from the game, and that will make him a power play asset even later into his career. Simply put, this is about as good of a defenseman as you will ever see moved through free agency or trade. Totally agree with poster Matt above - who cares about the way the Wings have normally done business? Show me what we do with our remaining 13 million in cap space, and I guarantee you it will have less of an impact than the Flyers' money for Weber.

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Poile will match this. I said in another thread last week that Weber would ink a long term deal before the CBA expires. The idea that Nashville can't afford to pay its players is ignorant. This is a different ownership group. Poile had equal offers on the table for Suter and Parise. Saying Philly "hamstrung" Nashville with a front loaded deal is ignorant as well. They did Nashville a favor here.

Then why didn't Poile announce that the Predators had matched the offer this morning instead of saying he's going to take time to "look it over". If they've got the cash do it, why wait? So who's really ignorant here?

Also, the idea that Weber wants out of Nashville is not true. Really think he was gonna gamble 14 yrs of his career if he wanted out? Weber will be happy as hell in Nashville, even more so when that direct deposit hits his bank account every month. And since there isn't a state income tax in Tennessee, that check is gonna look a lot nicer than it would in Philly.

So why was Poile discussing a trade of Weber to one of the Red Wings, Rangers, Sharks or Flyers? Have you ever considered the slap in the face that last year's arbitration process was for last year? Poile & Co. countered with a $4.75m proposal at that hearing... Yet Weber ended up with $7.5m -- a pretty significant difference. Weber just watched his partner jump ship to head closer to home for money that Poile would've reportedly matched. If Poile and Weber were close on money he would've re-signed at this point.

No, this points to disillusionment with the franchise. A fracture that first formed last summer and has significantly widened since the beginning of the month. Suter leaving was likely the straw that broke the camel's back in this case, and the comments from Weber's agent "it's not a money issue" but liked the Flyers' history and "Cup chances". Neither of which Nashville can boast of.

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I'd be pretty surprised if the Wings signed someone to a cap hit over 8 mil.

Yeah, why should the Wings pay market value for any players. Just the thought of playing at the Joe alone should make all players give Holland a discount to come here.

Those days are over. If you want a marquee player, you're going to have to pay them.

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Name me another NHL defenceman with a cap hit above 8 million.

When you sign someone to a 14 year deal its supposed to come with some sort of a discount.

They may have overpaid for a great player, but it still an overpayment no matter how you slice it.

Edited by FlashyG

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I don't see Nashville making an offer sheet structured like the one the Flyers have done...a $4M salary and $52M in guaranteed bonus money that will never be rolled back nor be touched. There is NO WAY Nashville can match this structure it unless they liquidate a whole lot of contracts on the team...I just don't see them matching. Polie and the ownership have put themselves in a HUGE bind over not dealing with Weber awhile back.

Nashville has 7 days to be as creative as the Flyers...question is...can they out fox them.

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Name me the other NHL defenceman with a cap hit above 8 million.

The Salary Cap has essentially doubled since 2005, and Shea Weber is a 26-year old defenseman who essentially hit the free agency market coming into his prime. Can you name another defenseman with a better chance to win multiple Norris trophies over the next 10 years? Tough to predict, but Weber has to be at least "in that conversation".

This WAS market value for Weber.

I don't see Nashville making an offer sheet structured like the one the Flyers have done...a $4M salary and $52M in guaranteed bonus money that will never be rolled back nor be touched. There is NO WAY Nashville can match this structure it unless they liquidate a whole lot of contracts on the team...I just don't see them matching. Polie and the ownership have put themselves in a HUGE bind over not dealing with Weber awhile back.

Nashville has 7 days to be as creative as the Flyers...question is...can they out fox them.

First, can they even do that? I thought you had to match an offer sheet "as is", and that's the whole point of what a poison pill is.

Nashville's financial problems and the fact that they screwed this up LAST summer with the arbitration thing were the reason I've been yelling at the sky for weeks that this situation is ripe for an offer sheet. If you're an elite team, your 1st round picks are not all that valuable. And if you can use bonus money to frontload the crap out of a contract, you can force a cash-strapped organization like NAS to go bankrupt if they match.

Plus, with the loss of Suter and Weber's agent mouthing off at Nashville, should they even match if they could?

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I don't see Nashville making an offer sheet structured like the one the Flyers have done...a $4M salary and $52M in guaranteed bonus money that will never be rolled back nor be touched. There is NO WAY Nashville can match this structure it unless they liquidate a whole lot of contracts on the team...I just don't see them matching. Polie and the ownership have put themselves in a HUGE bind over not dealing with Weber awhile back.

Nashville has 7 days to be as creative as the Flyers...question is...can they out fox them.

Nashville doesn't have the option to "outfox" anyone, they can match the offer or reject it making Weber a Flyer, they can't alter the contract in any way.

The Salary Cap has essentially doubled since 2005, and Shea Weber is a 26-year old defenseman who essentially hit the free agency market coming into his prime. Can you name another defenseman with a better chance to win multiple Norris trophies over the next 10 years? Tough to predict, but Weber has to be at least "in that conversation".

This WAS market value for Weber.

Erik Karlsson comes to mind. 22 years old, already has a Norris and with far more offensive upside than Weber, signed recently for 6.5 mil a season.

Besides Weber isn't getting paid Norris money, he's getting paid Hart Trophy kind of money. The only players making more are Crosby, Ovechkin and Malkin.

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Not that it matters too much, since the money has to come from the cash-strapped owners, but an interesting piece of information anyways:

USA Today:

No one understands how these offer sheets can impact a team more than Nashville general manager David Poile. In 1990, he was Washington's GM when the St. Louis Blues gave an offer sheet to defenseman Scott Stevens who was as important to the Capitals as Weber is to Nashville.

Poile chose not to match, and accepted the compensation of five first round picks. Those picks became Trevor Halverson, Sergei Gonchar, Brendan Witt, Nolan Baumgartner and Miika Elomo. Poile has said in interviews through the years that he regretted his decision to let Stevens leave.

I'm guessing Poile is going to do everything he personally can to make sure Weber stays.

Edited by Zetts

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Nashville doesn't have the option to "outfox" anyone, they can match the offer or reject it making Weber a Flyer, they can't alter the contract in any way.

Erik Karlsson comes to mind. 22 years old, already has a Norris and with far more offensive upside than Weber, signed recently for 6.5 mil a season.

Besides Weber isn't getting paid Norris money, he's getting paid Hart Trophy kind of money. The only players making more are Crosby, Ovechkin and Malkin.

Time will tell if he's that good, but unlike Karlsson, he has a real track record with multiple elite seasons, plus a prominent role for Team Canada in the 2010 Olympics. To put it in perspective, somebody like Zdeno Chara who was a late bloomer, had a 9-goal season on Ottawa when he was 26 years old. It really wasn't until post-lockout and into his early 30's that he became an elite force that made his team an instant Cup contender.

If Nick Lidstrom had come into his prime in today's market as a 26-year old, he would've been worth $8 or $9 million against the Cap.

I get your point, but that Nashville team had NOTHING offensively, and the combination of Weber and Suter (helping Rinne) made them a legitimate Cup threat this year. It's similar to the Joe Mauer effect here in Minnesota - this was a "perfect storm" of an elite athlete hitting free agency at the precise peak of his value. You know that it's virtually impossible he could be "worth" the full value of the contract, but the real question is "do I think the price is worth it to have him play for me instead of somebody else?"

Ask yourself this question, if the Wings had signed that offer sheet, would you be mad right now? I wouldn't. I'd probably be ecstatic that they even tried it.

Not that it matters too much, since the money has to come from the cash-strapped owners, but an interesting piece of information anyways:

I'm guessing Poile is going to do everything he personally can to make sure Weber stays.

Wow, I didn't realize that connection. Good post.

Frightening tidbit from Wikipedia that expands on the Stevens angle a bit:

Stevens' signing had far-reaching ramifications on player contracts in the NHL. At the time, the deal made him the highest-paid defenceman in the league.[14] In addition, the deal included a $1.4 million signing bonus.[2] Several defencemen considered superior players to Stevens, including Ray Bourque and Chris Chelios, were earning less money, and Capitals defenceman Kevin Hatcher held out until he received a contract similar to that of Stevens.[14] General managers worried that these players would begin demanding bigger contracts. The players did end up asking for more money, and this escalation was one of the factors in the 1994–95 NHL lockout several seasons later.[2][10]

Edited by StormJH1

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Ask yourself this question, if the Wings had signed that offer sheet, would you be mad right now? I wouldn't. I'd probably be ecstatic that they even tried it.

Of course not I'd be as giddy as anyone else, I'd still consider it an over payment though.

I've said all along I don't think this is a mistake on Holmgren's part, I just think its silly to try and downplay the amount of money it cost him to do it.

I also don't think its fair to criticize GM's who didn't offer sheet him as it's still a risky move considering the CBA is about to be altered significantly.

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Quick question... if by some crazy sequence of events the CBA is altered in the next 7 days, does the offer sheet still count? I know it wont but say this situation happens later in the offseason and a team submits and offersheet then the CBA is changed, does the sheet become void as a contract isn't signed? Or would the league respect it and keep it?

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I'm still bitter about the non suspension on Weber for his WWE move on Zetterberg, how Preds fans thought it was a big joke, and even had a nickname for it ("Webering").

With that said, it serves Preds fans and Gary Bettman right for not making "Webering" a serious issue. Suter is gone, and Weber, if the offer isn't matched is gone too.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aIrhVo1WA78

Edited by Barrie
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Quick question... if by some crazy sequence of events the CBA is altered in the next 7 days, does the offer sheet still count? I know it wont but say this situation happens later in the offseason and a team submits and offersheet then the CBA is changed, does the sheet become void as a contract isn't signed? Or would the league respect it and keep it?

I believe the offer-sheet would stand. I think for all intents and purposes a signed offer sheet is the same as a signed contract. The only difference is the original teams right to match the offer.

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Helene St. James ‏@HeleneStJames #RedWings did not talk to Preds about trading for Shea Weber.

Guess Holland didn't even try.

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