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dicksmack

Mantha named CHL player of the year

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I understand trading potential but before even seeing what he can do at the AHL level? Not to mention that getting the type of player you're talking about would cost much more than just Mantha. Who knows, Mantha could end up being a bust but I'd like to see him get a chance first before considering trading him away. And with Holland's track record lately, I'm not so sure the return would be that great...

Because his value is high. If he gets to GR and struggles, his value will drop.

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Yes, I would trade potential for proven high level production every time. If you can get a 24 or 25 year old 30 goal scorer for a fut who might score that much 5 years later do it. That's not ridiculous, it's smart.

In principle, yes it's smart to trade potential for proven production, but in actuality it's a huge risk in this case and not very smart in my opinion. Mantha has huge potential with his size and skill set. He could be a cornerstone player for the franchise for the rest of his career. I'm not saying that will happen, but that is the potential you'd be trading away. Could you get a player like that in return? Could you replace Mantha with another player who is 6'5"?

Also, the fan base (me included) would never forgive you for letting Mantha get away if he has any success elsewhere. Mantha is not a regular prospect. The general excitement around him coming to the Wings is something that is great for the franchise (And business - people will buy tickets to see the new junior phenom start his career).

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A lot of teams wanted him at the trade deadline, and Holland refused, why would he trade him now before the season starts?

What did they offer for him? Kessler or Edler if he included Nyquist and Sproul? I wouldn't do that either, and I wouldn't move him just to move him. I've move him if I could get a young top pair D like McDonough, Subban, Pietrangelo, or a young power forward like Benn, Pacioretty, or Johansen.

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In principle, yes it's smart to trade potential for proven production, but in actuality it's a huge risk in this case and not very smart in my opinion. Mantha has huge potential with his size and skill set. He could be a cornerstone player for the franchise for the rest of his career. I'm not saying that will happen, but that is the potential you'd be trading away. Could you get a player like that in return? Could you replace Mantha with another player who is 6'5"?

Also, the fan base (me included) would never forgive you for letting Mantha get away if he has any success elsewhere. Mantha is not a regular prospect. The general excitement around him coming to the Wings is something that is great for the franchise (And business - people will buy tickets to see the new junior phenom start his career).

Give me top high level prospects, let me trade them with secondary assets for high end guys in their prime, I'll lose maybe 1 of 10 times. The rest of the time the prospect will either eventually match what I get now and it will be a push, or the prospect will never be that good. Look at the list of CHL players of the year. 4 of them are elite NHL players, with Eberle maybe getting there, and Drouin hasn't played an NHL game yet. Look at a list of leading scorers in the Q over the last dozen years. You'll see a lot of guys that tore it up there and did nothing in the NHL.

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Give me top high level prospects, let me trade them with secondary assets for high end guys in their prime, I'll lose maybe 1 of 10 times. The rest of the time the prospect will either eventually match what I get now and it will be a push, or the prospect will never be that good. Look at the list of CHL players of the year. 4 of them are elite NHL players, with Eberle maybe getting there, and Drouin hasn't played an NHL game yet. Look at a list of leading scorers in the Q over the last dozen years. You'll see a lot of guys that tore it up there and did nothing in the NHL.

I don't know that his potential is based solely on his numbers though. He has the frame to compete at high levels as well. If he can continue to develop he has the tools, those other CHL winners may not have. Doesnt mean Mantha's a sure bet though.

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Give me top high level prospects, let me trade them with secondary assets for high end guys in their prime, I'll lose maybe 1 of 10 times. The rest of the time the prospect will either eventually match what I get now and it will be a push, or the prospect will never be that good. Look at the list of CHL players of the year. 4 of them are elite NHL players, with Eberle maybe getting there, and Drouin hasn't played an NHL game yet. Look at a list of leading scorers in the Q over the last dozen years. You'll see a lot of guys that tore it up there and did nothing in the NHL.

I agree that it's not guaranteed that he will produce in the NHL, but all of what I said still stands. Most of this conversation is pretty pointless since said you'd be willing to trade Mantha for Subban, Pietrangelo, etc. and those guys are not going to be traded.

In talking about Mantha's NHL potential, though, I think you are talking too generally about probability. If you stick to generalities, I would probably agree with you, but if you need look at Mantha specifically compared to other CHL players that didn't work out.

Not to say that size is everything, but it really does matter when transitioning to the NHL. Those that couldn't make the transition are all small players:

Justin Azevedo: 5'8"

Corey Locke: 5'10"

Pierre-Marc Bouchard: 5'10"

Simon Gamache: 5'9"

Brendan Shinnimin: 5'10"

Sergei Varlamov: 5'10"

Edited by PavelValerievichDatsyuk

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Give me top high level prospects, let me trade them with secondary assets for high end guys in their prime, I'll lose maybe 1 of 10 times. The rest of the time the prospect will either eventually match what I get now and it will be a push, or the prospect will never be that good. Look at the list of CHL players of the year. 4 of them are elite NHL players, with Eberle maybe getting there, and Drouin hasn't played an NHL game yet. Look at a list of leading scorers in the Q over the last dozen years. You'll see a lot of guys that tore it up there and did nothing in the NHL.

Moot point. No one is going to give up a high end player in his prime for a prospect, unless the prospect is all but guaranteed to be much better.

At best you might find a team with an excess of defensemen willing to move whichever they like least, or a team looking to rebuild willing to part with an aging player, or maybe a pending UFA. But for the most part you'll have to give up a lot more in potential than what you're getting back.

The salary cap is another thing to consider. Cheap production is important. If you're trading for a high-end player, it's going to be someone who already has (or very soon will have) a high-end salary. So it's not just "what can we get from Mantha in the next 5-6 years?"...it's what can we get from Mantha plus the extra $2-5M in cap space?

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I totally understand the logic behind moving potential for a proven commodity. If you can land that blue-chip defender, or consistent goal scorer, you do it. Even if the guy is in his mid to late 20's, you're getting consistency for 5-10 years at least. In the NHL, that's a good chunk of time. I love Mantha's potential, but it's just that - potential. There are still doubts surrounding his game, and I think the fan base is a wee bit excited about the prospect of having a home grown, potential 40 goal scorer.

As far as him leap-frogging Jurco and every one above Jurco in that top six...

"At times he paces himself. Part of that is the minutes he plays. Also, his talent level allows him to play that way."

If Mantha can't play his way into the top six he'll likely start the season in the AHL because he's not a third- or fourth-line type of player.


"We got lots of younger player in the organization; we're hoping to have a real competitive camp," Holland said. "We're trying to transition from an older team to a younger team but you can't get too young too quickly when you're competing for the Stanley Cup.

I'm not advocating just shipping the guy off for nothing, but if you're getting a stud back... it's just crazy to not make that move. Remove the sentiment and 40 goals is 40 goals. An elite defender is an elite defender. While unlikely to be moved, I'd take any of those guys that DD listed (maybe not Johansen) if Mantha was going the other way. The whole, "let's see what he's got in the AHL" - that just kills his trade value if he struggles. His value is at an all-time high right now, so if they're going to move him, they'd be getting the best value right now.

Edited by Jesusberg

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Alexandre Daigle. Radek Bonk. Al Montoya. Nikita Filatov. Patrick Stefan. Thomas Hickey. Marek Zagrapan. AJ Thelen. Scott Glennie. All guys drafted high, full of potential, no reason to think they'd flop, and they all did.

You're right, those younger stars probably aren't available, I'd still call and ask though.

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I totally understand the logic behind moving potential for a proven commodity. If you can land that blue-chip defender, or consistent goal scorer, you do it. Even if the guy is in his mid to late 20's, you're getting consistency for 5-10 years at least. In the NHL, that's a good chunk of time. I love Mantha's potential, but it's just that - potential. There are still doubts surrounding his game, and I think the fan base is a wee bit excited about the prospect of having a home grown, potential 40 goal scorer.

As far as him leap-frogging Jurco and every one above Jurco in that top six...

I'm not advocating just shipping the guy off for nothing, but if you're getting a stud back... it's just crazy to not make that move. Remove the sentiment and 40 goals is 40 goals. An elite defender is an elite defender. While unlikely to be moved, I'd take any of those guys that DD listed (maybe not Johansen) if Mantha was going the other way. The whole, "let's see what he's got in the AHL" - that just kills his trade value if he struggles. His value is at an all-time high right now, so if they're going to move him, they'd be getting the best value right now.

I agree with most of your points, but I'll say this...if you wouldn't trade Mantha for Johansen you probably need to watch more of Ryan Johansen. That dude is a monster.

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I agree with most of your points, but I'll say this...if you wouldn't trade Mantha for Johansen you probably need to watch more of Ryan Johansen. That dude is a monster.

Admittedly, I didn't watch much Columbus hockey this year. I know he had a solid season, but the other guys have just shown more consistency over time. My hesitation is purely based on the rest of the guys having a proven track record.

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Alexandre Daigle. Radek Bonk. Al Montoya. Nikita Filatov. Patrick Stefan. Thomas Hickey. Marek Zagrapan. AJ Thelen. Scott Glennie. All guys drafted high, full of potential, no reason to think they'd flop, and they all did.

You're right, those younger stars probably aren't available, I'd still call and ask though.

I was looking at the list of those who won CHL player of the year. I'm not arguing that big players can't flop, but it that it certainly helps the transition to the NHL. I think raises Mantha's probability of success and looking at that CHL player of the year shows that.

As a side note:

I wouldn't call Radek Bonk a flop. He played about 15 years in the league. had four consecutive 20+ goal seasons. 497 pts in 969 NHL games.

Also, Thomas Hickey is in his 2nd season in the NHL season. I don't know much about him, but I think it would probably be too early to call him a flop - especially since he is defenceman and they take longer to develop.

Edited by PavelValerievichDatsyuk

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I agree that it's not guaranteed that he will produce in the NHL, but all of what I said still stands. Most of this conversation is pretty pointless since said you'd be willing to trade Mantha for Subban, Pietrangelo, etc. and those guys are not going to be traded.

In talking about Mantha's NHL potential, though, I think you are talking too generally about probability. If you stick to generalities, I would probably agree with you, but if you need look at Mantha specifically compared to other CHL players that didn't work out.

Not to say that size is everything, but it really does matter when transitioning to the NHL. Those that couldn't make the transition are all small players:

Justin Azevedo: 5'8"

Corey Locke: 5'10"

Pierre-Marc Bouchard: 5'10"

Simon Gamache: 5'9"

Brendan Shinnimin: 5'10"

Sergei Varlamov: 5'10"

Bouchard had several great seasons in the NHL until he got a nasty concussion during the 09-10 season opener. He hasn't been the same since. You should take him off the list. Shinnimin also might be too early to put on there. So, thats just five (or four) duds out of 16 CHL MVPs, and as you said...all were small guys. Things look pretty good for our boy Mantha.

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I wouldn't read too much into Kenny's comment. I do believe he's going to get a pretty fair shot, but, either way, Kenny's not going to say, "Will he have a shot in the fall? Probably not." (See: Alfredsson, Daniel.)

But if we want to read into stuff, I think that little Q & A Babs did on the night he watched Mantha play seemed to suggest he's a bit skeptical, because that's just how he is when it comes to this kind of thing.

"The NHL is a whole different thing. He'll need to work on his pace. He'll need to learn to always keep his feet moving. You've gotta be real heavy on the puck at the pro level. You've gotta win your board battles, shift after shift after shift, night after night after night - and not against kids, but full-grown men, elite athletes, the best of the best. You've gotta be an everydayer. And while you're learning all this, you're also trying to figure out how to really take care of yourself for the first time in your life. It's a whole new way of life, and it's real easy to get lost in it. Now, having said all that, we've never had a kid like this, someone who's 6'5 and can really put the puck in the net. Maybe that helps speed up his development, maybe it doesn't. We'll just have to wait and see."

(That's not an actual quote, but it's pretty close to what he said. I was too lazy to track down the original audio, so I just put on my Generic Babcock Hat there.)

Pesonally, I think I'd rather have him start the season in GR and see how he does, unless he has a really, really, really good training camp. What's the risk? ...Versus, if you throw him right into the fire, that could backfire - for him and the team. We need to get as many points as possible, and, if we're being honest and objective, he does need to improve his all-around game. So...expect him to start in GR. (I wouldn't necessarily mind being wrong on this one, of course.)

As for maybe putting the feelers out re: his possible trade value...I don't know why you wouldn't at least dip your toes into those waters. It doesn't mean you think any less of Mantha. It doesn't mean "OMG HOLLAND IS SHOPPING MANTHA! FULL STORY @ 10!" It's just, if there's a fantastic opportunity out there, you'd like to know. Right?

Edited by Dabura

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This is not too unexpected...lets add to that a Calder...then a Hart...and then a Conn Smythe... YAY!

quick note on Jarnkrok...for those of you who don't think he would have left for Sweden, think again. If Emmerton left for the KHL because he realized he had no place on next years team, what do you think a talent like Jarnkrok would do in the same situation...when he already made mention about going back if he didn't get a promotion soon. He would have left, he knew it, the scouts knew it, Ken Holland knew it. Ken Holland traded him for two reasons, to get something in return (which helped us keep the streak alive) and to give Jarnkrok his opportunity to play in the NHL because he wasn't going to be here until 2015-16...case closed.... :P

BTW...Mantha = utouchable....he is the best thing to have in this organization since...dare I say, since Fedorov arrived. (not saying he is the next Fedorov, but he is definitely the hottest prospect since...

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Folks really should be realistic and see how he develops, less pressure and expectations for the kid would be the best route.

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When I see "untouchable" next to the name of any prospect, I have to roll my eyes. I'm sorry, but just take a look at draft history from even the last 5-10 years. Check the first 5 names or so, and you'll see some serious to moderate (Schenn brothers) success... then it gets spotty.

For my money, untouchable is the 20-25 year old player who can eat up 25 minutes on the back-end and look comfortable, or the kid scoring 30 goals at that age, or playing 50 games between the pipes and putting up respectable numbers. Potential is potential. "Being the best thing to happen Detroit since" is a relative statement, because there's much better than Mantha out there. Kid's value is at a high right now - If you can package him for someone with a proven track record in their early to mid 20's... why in the world wouldn't you do it?

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Folks really should be realistic and see how he develops, less pressure and expectations for the kid would be the best route.

NO! We have to demand that he score 40 goals and win the Calder, then average 40 goals for the next 12 years while leading the team to at least 5 Cups in his career. If he doesn't do that, he'll be a total bust.

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When I see "untouchable" next to the name of any prospect, I have to roll my eyes. I'm sorry, but just take a look at draft history from even the last 5-10 years. Check the first 5 names or so, and you'll see some serious to moderate (Schenn brothers) success... then it gets spotty.

For my money, untouchable is the 20-25 year old player who can eat up 25 minutes on the back-end and look comfortable, or the kid scoring 30 goals at that age, or playing 50 games between the pipes and putting up respectable numbers. Potential is potential. "Being the best thing to happen Detroit since" is a relative statement, because there's much better than Mantha out there. Kid's value is at a high right now - If you can package him for someone with a proven track record in their early to mid 20's... why in the world wouldn't you do it?

I think a lot of fans see comparisons to a Hall of Fame caliber player, or they read what a prospect could develop into, they don't take into account that most players don't reach their full potential. Some are complete busts and never see the NHL. Others have decent careers, but never reach what their top end potential was projected to be-guys like Bonk, Anders Ericsson, Smid, and Upshall. It's more likely that Mantha puts up Fraznen type numbers than he turn into some perennial All-Star power forward.

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I think a lot of fans see comparisons to a Hall of Fame caliber player, or they read what a prospect could develop into, they don't take into account that most players don't reach their full potential. Some are complete busts and never see the NHL. Others have decent careers, but never reach what their top end potential was projected to be-guys like Bonk, Anders Ericsson, Smid, and Upshall. It's more likely that Mantha puts up Fraznen type numbers than he turn into some perennial All-Star power forward.

well-thats-just-like-your-opinion-man-gi

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When I see "untouchable" next to the name of any prospect, I have to roll my eyes. I'm sorry, but just take a look at draft history from even the last 5-10 years. Check the first 5 names or so, and you'll see some serious to moderate (Schenn brothers) success... then it gets spotty.

For my money, untouchable is the 20-25 year old player who can eat up 25 minutes on the back-end and look comfortable, or the kid scoring 30 goals at that age, or playing 50 games between the pipes and putting up respectable numbers. Potential is potential. "Being the best thing to happen Detroit since" is a relative statement, because there's much better than Mantha out there. Kid's value is at a high right now - If you can package him for someone with a proven track record in their early to mid 20's... why in the world wouldn't you do it?

That's like saying, "If you can trade 3500 lbs of metal and plastic for a new car...".

You can't. You can't even if you "package" it with 5 tons of crap either. You want a proven young player you're going to have to add a lot. Look at the Ryan trade. He's not even a great goal scorer and was already 26. Went for a Mantha-level prospect, plus another good prospect, plus a 1st.

Aside from maybe a few overzealous fans here, no one is anointing him the second coming. And I think you and Dickie are over-valuing his trade value just as much as they are over-valuing his potential. His value may be higher than it's been in the past, but I'd say it's unlikely as high as it will get. Even moderate success in GR (or with the Wings) would move him up.

Obviously, no one is literally untouchable. I assume when anyone says that it just means they don't believe said player would bring a worthy return. For me, Mantha, Sheahan, Sproul, Mrazek, and Pulkkinen are untouchable right now. Their skillsets are mostly unique in our prospect pool (Pulks is a little redundant). You'd have to really blow me away with an offer to get any of them.

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That's like saying, "If you can trade 3500 lbs of metal and plastic for a new car...".

You can't. You can't even if you "package" it with 5 tons of crap either. You want a proven young player you're going to have to add a lot. Look at the Ryan trade. He's not even a great goal scorer and was already 26. Went for a Mantha-level prospect, plus another good prospect, plus a 1st.

Aside from maybe a few overzealous fans here, no one is anointing him the second coming. And I think you and Dickie are over-valuing his trade value just as much as they are over-valuing his potential. His value may be higher than it's been in the past, but I'd say it's unlikely as high as it will get. Even moderate success in GR (or with the Wings) would move him up.

Obviously, no one is literally untouchable. I assume when anyone says that it just means they don't believe said player would bring a worthy return. For me, Mantha, Sheahan, Sproul, Mrazek, and Pulkkinen are untouchable right now. Their skillsets are mostly unique in our prospect pool (Pulks is a little redundant). You'd have to really blow me away with an offer to get any of them.

I agree with your overall point, but Silferberg wasn't a "Mantha-level prospect". He was drafted 39th overall and his professional scoring totals weren't even as good as Calle Jarnkrok in both the SEL and AHL.

But hyperbole aside, I agree. Nobody is going to take Mantha for a young, proven, NHL goal scorer.

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I agree with your overall point, but Silferberg wasn't a "Mantha-level prospect". He was drafted 39th overall and his professional scoring totals weren't even as good as Calle Jarnkrok in both the SEL and AHL.

But hyperbole aside, I agree. Nobody is going to take Mantha for a young, proven, NHL goal scorer.

Maybe not the same offensive ceiling, but he's more of a two-way player and more importantly had already had a decent rookie season in the NHL. I'd say they're pretty similar in value. (Maybe Silfverberg has dropped a little now, since he didn't show much improvement in his second year.)

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I think a lot of fans see comparisons to a Hall of Fame caliber player, or they read what a prospect could develop into, they don't take into account that most players don't reach their full potential. Some are complete busts and never see the NHL. Others have decent careers, but never reach what their top end potential was projected to be-guys like Bonk, Anders Ericsson, Smid, and Upshall. It's more likely that Mantha puts up Fraznen type numbers than he turn into some perennial All-Star power forward.

Mantha is bigger, uses his size and skates hard. He coasts a bit, but he's in position watching the play. When the time comes, he turns on the jets. And anyone, even in Jr, who scores 81 goals in 81 games during regular season and playoffs needs to be on our team in the top 6 and the PP.

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