Rumors Thread

[Dabura 12,207]

48 minutes ago, DickieDunn said:

He's 27, his best years are ahead of him.  

Debatable.

He's a good 1D. I'm not convinced he helps us all that much. It's going to take us at least three years to become serious Cup contenders again, at which point he'll be 30.

He's played on powerhouse Capitals teams, which has boosted his numbers and his profile. He's had a hand in the success of those teams, but I don't think he's ever put himself in the "franchise cornerstone, perennial all-star defenseman" category.

Edited December 22, 2017 by Dabura

[kliq 3,755]

4 hours ago, Dabura said:

Debatable.

He's a good 1D. I'm not convinced he helps us all that much. It's going to take us at least three years to become serious Cup contenders again, at which point he'll be 30.

He's played on powerhouse Capitals teams, which has boosted his numbers and his profile. He's had a hand in the success of those teams, but I don't think he's ever put himself in the "franchise cornerstone, perennial all-star defenseman" category.

100% agree, this is my fear. An elite team can make a good player sometimes appear elite. My worry is that on Detroit he looks more like a 2nd pairing guy.

[kliq 3,755]

5 hours ago, DickieDunn said:

That's the going rate for that caliber of player, yes.

The same thing can be said for anyone.  He's 27, his best years are ahead of him.  

You're not wrong in regards to the bolded, I do disagree with the next line though. If Carlson leaves Washington, I would think he would show a regression. That's just my opinion though, I could easily be wrong. 

I guess with our cap situation I am hesitant to give out any more long term contracts unless its a sure thing.

If we were able to shed salary, I may change my tune on Carlson.

Edited December 22, 2017 by kliq

[Dabura 12,207]

38 minutes ago, kliq said:

If we were able to shed salary, I may change my tune on Carlson.

Was just about to say the same.

I'd feel a lot better about the idea of signing him to a 7 x 7 deal if we had much more cap flexibility than we currently have.

That, and I want to see who our first pick in the draft is. If it's one of the absolute best players in the draft class and it looks like the player is good enough to step right into the NHL and be an impact player, I might start to think along the lines of "OK, let's maybe try to run with this and see if we can't put together a legitimately good playoff team right now." Like, if we get Dahlin or Boqvist and it's a straight-to-the-NHL situation, I'd probably want a proven top-pairing defenseman on our blue line to pair the player with and/or provide some insulation so the player can, in theory, play a role he's totally comfortable with.

Edited December 22, 2017 by Dabura

[Neomaxizoomdweebie 3,083]

just a few thoughts:

 

 

1. Shattenkirks contract is an outlier. he took less money and term to play for the team he wanted. he would have gotten a lot more if he chose to chas the money. using his contract to predict Carlsons is pointless. 2. Why would we consider adding more 2nd pairing dmen? Would you say that we have a "plethora of pinatas", I mean 2nd pair guys? Dekeyser, Daley, Ericsson even if u trade Green. This team needs top pair guys. 3. Why would u buyout Ericsson to replace him with more expensive 2nd pair guys. A guy like Cole will cost like 6+ mil to keep. Add Ericssons 2+ mil buyout penalty to that and ur essentially paying 8+ mil for a guy like Cole. Is he worth twice what Ericsson is already making? No. 4. The reason you dont take less than a 3rd for Green is because you basically lose any chance of re-signing him if you ship out of town for a few weeks for little return. That would be a dick move by Holland, plus every other GM would smell blood in the water. 5. Why wouldn't Green want to re-sign here? We weren't a good team when he signed before. I would like to have him back. 6. No top name dman in UFA has lived  p to his contract since Suter. If you can get Carlson for fair value, I am down with that but someone is going to overpay. I would rather it not be Holland.

Edited December 29, 2017 by Neomaxizoomdweebie

[LeftWinger 4,963]

12 hours ago, LoveMyRedWings56 said:

Doubt Nyquist gets moved at the trade deadline if he gets moved at all it might be at the draft, Green is definitely getting moved not sure about Mrazek unless a starter goes down and who honestly wants XO.

Nyquist/Tatar, one of them.

Found a taker for Kindl.

[DickieDunn 2,571]

Green signed here for an opportunity to play on the top pair instead of the 3rd pair in Washington, the team wasn't as bad as it is now, and that was before everyone knew Blashill was an idiot.  If I were Green, I'd rather go somewhere I might win the Cup.

[krsmith17 7,191]

11 hours ago, Neomaxizoomdweebie said:

just a few thoughts:

1. Shattenkirks contract is an outlier. he took less money and term to play for the team he wanted. he would have gotten a lot more if he chose to chas the money. using his contract to predict Carlsons is pointless. 2. Why would we consider adding more 2nd pairing dmen? Would you say that we have a "plethora of pinatas", I mean 2nd pair guys? Dekeyser, Daley, Ericsson even if u trade Green. This team needs top pair guys. 3. Why would u buyout Ericsson to replace him with more expensive 2nd pair guys. A guy like Cole will cost like 6+ mil to keep. Add Ericssons 2+ mil buyout penalty to that and ur essentially paying 8+ mil for a guy like Cole. Is he worth twice what Ericsson is already making? No. 4. The reason you dont take less than a 3rd for Green is because you basically lose any chance of re-signing him if you ship out of town for a few weeks for little return. That would be a dick move by Holland, plus every other GM would smell blood in the water. 5. Why wouldn't Green want to re-sign here? We weren't a good team when he signed before. I would like to have him back. 6. No top name dman in UFA has lived  p to his contract since Suter. If you can get Carlson for fair value, I am down with that but someone is going to overpay. I would rather it not be Holland.

1. I completely agree with this.

2. It's unclear if you're talking about Carlson or De Haan / Cole here. If it's the former, he absolutely is a top pair defenseman, it's just debatable whether he's a true number one, or a number two. If it's the latter, I completely agree. We do not need to overpay for more of these type players.

3. I'd be shocked if Cole signs for much more than $4M, but your point stands. At this point, I'd rather keep Ericsson, rather than move him and retain salary, especially with his much improved play. However, if we could move him without retaining any salary and actually gain an asset (this isn't as crazy as some "Errorsson bashers" might think), I'd do it in a heartbeat.

4. I somewhat agree with this. More so to the point that kliq made, about showing weakness, or like you said, other GM's smelling blood in the water. But I don't think the return would effect Green's decision to re-sign or not. There's no way a team doesn't offer significantly better than just a 3rd though.

5. I think Green would be open to re-signing here, but I don't think it's a sure thing. We weren't quite as bad as we are now when he originally signed here, and he's getting up there in age now (for an athlete). He'll probably only sign another one or two contracts, and he may want to chase a Cup at this point.

6. I agree that we shouldn't overpay for any UFA's, but I don't think $7Mx7 is overpayment for a legit top pair defenseman. However, I do agree with kliq and Dabura's point about trying to offload a bad contract or two first. I think Kronwall may actually finish out his contract at this point (maybe), but if he went the way of LTIR(etire), and we were able to offload Nielsen's contract, that would make that $7M very doable, even if he is at worst a number two defenseman.

[Richdg 267]

18 hours ago, Neomaxizoomdweebie said:

just a few thoughts:

 

 

1. Shattenkirks contract is an outlier. he took less money and term to play for the team he wanted. he would have gotten a lot more if he chose to chas the money. using his contract to predict Carlsons is pointless. 2. Why would we consider adding more 2nd pairing dmen? Would you say that we have a "plethora of pinatas", I mean 2nd pair guys? Dekeyser, Daley, Ericsson even if u trade Green. This team needs top pair guys. 3. Why would u buyout Ericsson to replace him with more expensive 2nd pair guys. A guy like Cole will cost like 6+ mil to keep. Add Ericssons 2+ mil buyout penalty to that

 

  and ur essentially paying 8+ mil for a guy like Cole. Is he worth twice what Ericsson is already making? No. 4. The reason you dont take less than a 3rd for Green is because you basically lose any chance of re-signing him if you ship out of town for a few weeks for little return. That would be a dick move by Holland, plus every other GM would smell blood in the water. 5. Why wouldn't Green want to re-sign here? We weren't a good team when he signed before. I would like to have him back. 6. No top name dman in UFA has lived  p to his contract since Suter. If you can get Carlson for fair value, I am down with that but someone is going to overpay. I would rather it not be Holland.

              

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

De Haan and Cole are much better players than Ericsson. Period. They are legit 2nd pair guys, Ericsson is a 3rd pair guy. We have 1 legit 2nd pair Dman on the team or in the suystem-Dekeyser. That is it. You need 2. We have 1. Not hard to understand. You bring in a 2nd. Cole or De Haan at 4 million per is a good deal and makes us a better team. Neither cost us anything. Just sign them.

I understand everyones issues with our cap. We all hate it. None of us created this mess. Holland did. It will take work and time to fix it. No 2 ways around that. So we as a team can sit back and do nothing and wait for another 5 years years to be good agian or maybe get a GM that makes moves and fixes our issues. I know crazy idea.

Any top Dman that comes here could see their numbers go down. Karlsson isn't getting 60 assists here if he came. Nor is OEL, Doughty, Carlson, Burns, etc.... Green's numbers took a hit his first 2 years here as well. Green was a 3rd pair guy/PP specialist in Washington. Meaning what? Green isn't a top pair guy, isn't a second pair guy, Carlson was ahead of him on the depth chart, and eveyrone is ok with him making 6 million per year. Talk about over paying! I would take Carlson at 7 or 8 million over Green any day of the week.

[Dabura 12,207]

1 minute ago, Richdg said:

De Haan and Cole are much better players than Ericsson. Period. They are legit 2nd pair guys, Ericsson is a 3rd pair guy. We have 1 legit 2nd pair Dman on the team or in the suystem-Dekeyser. That is it. You need 2. We have 1. Not hard to understand. You bring in a 2nd. Cole or De Haan at 4 million per is a good deal and makes us a better team. Neither cost us anything. Just sign them.

I understand everyones issues with our cap. We all hate it. None of us created this mess. Holland did. It will take work and time to fix it. No 2 ways around that. So we as a team can sit back and do nothing and wait for another 5 years years to be good agian or maybe get a GM that makes moves and fixes our issues. I know crazy idea.

Any top Dman that comes here could see their numbers go down. Karlsson isn't getting 60 assists here if he came. Nor is OEL, Doughty, Carlson, Burns, etc.... Green's numbers took a hit his first 2 years here as well. Green was a 3rd pair guy/PP specialist in Washington. Meaning what? Green isn't a top pair guy, isn't a second pair guy, Carlson was ahead of him on the depth chart, and eveyrone is ok with him making 6 million per year. Talk about over paying! I would take Carlson at 7 or 8 million over Green any day of the week.

Trotz demoted Green to third-pairing duty because Trotz hates offense. He was better than a third-pairing guy.

Green signed a short-term deal with us. It was a solid deal for a solid top-three defenseman, which Green is.

Carlson at 7 x 7 would be a much bigger commitment and therefore a bigger risk. If you're sold on him being a spectacular 1D who could solve at least 50% of our problems right away, I can understand why you'd be perfectly fine with that deal. Personally, I'm not sold on Carlson being the kind of player that a team in our position (cap problems, probably multiple years away from being truly competitive even if we sign Carlson) should be signing. I think he's good. I'm not sure he's great.

IMO, he's the flavor of the year. He's the "Well, it's a thin UFA class, so WE HAVE TO GET THIS GUY, HOLLAND!" guy. There's always a couple of those guys.

I'd rather settle for being a basement team against next season and adding another much-needed high first-round selection to our bare cupboards. I'd rather save cap space for 2019's UFA class, which is shaping up to be pretty much the best UFA class ever.

[Son of a Wing 1,644]

24 minutes ago, Richdg said:

De Haan and Cole are much better players than Ericsson. Period. They are legit 2nd pair guys, Ericsson is a 3rd pair guy. We have 1 legit 2nd pair Dman on the team or in the suystem-Dekeyser. That is it. You need 2. We have 1. Not hard to understand. You bring in a 2nd. Cole or De Haan at 4 million per is a good deal and makes us a better team. Neither cost us anything. Just sign them.

I understand everyones issues with our cap. We all hate it. None of us created this mess. Holland did. It will take work and time to fix it. No 2 ways around that. So we as a team can sit back and do nothing and wait for another 5 years years to be good agian or maybe get a GM that makes moves and fixes our issues. I know crazy idea.

Any top Dman that comes here could see their numbers go down. Karlsson isn't getting 60 assists here if he came. Nor is OEL, Doughty, Carlson, Burns, etc.... Green's numbers took a hit his first 2 years here as well. Green was a 3rd pair guy/PP specialist in Washington. Meaning what? Green isn't a top pair guy, isn't a second pair guy, Carlson was ahead of him on the depth chart, and eveyrone is ok with him making 6 million per year. Talk about over paying! I would take Carlson at 7 or 8 million over Green any day of the week.

Who?

[Richdg 267]

2 minutes ago, Dabura said:

Trotz demoted Green to third-pairing duty because Trotz hates offense. He was better than a third-pairing guy.

Green signed a short-term deal with us. It was a solid deal for a solid top-three defenseman, which Green is.

Carlson at 7 x 7 would be a much bigger commitment and therefore a bigger risk. If you're sold on him being a spectacular 1D who could solve at least 50% of our problems right away, I can understand why you'd be perfectly fine with that deal. Personally, I'm not sold on Carlson being the kind of player that a team in our position (cap problems, probably multiple years away from being truly competitive even if we sign Carlson) should be signing. I think he's good. I'm not sure he's great.

IMO, he's the flavor of the year. He's the "Well, it's a thin UFA class, so WE HAVE TO GET THIS GUY, HOLLAND!" guy. There's always a couple of those guys.

I'd rather settle for being a basement team against next season and adding another much-needed high first-round selection to our bare cupboards. I'd rather save cap space for 2019's UFA class, which is shaping up to be pretty much the best UFA class ever.

Green is so bad defensively I think many coaches would use him on the 3rd pair. Look what he has done to Dekeyser. In DD's first 2 full seasons he averaged 25 points each year and was +10 each year while playing is KFQ. The last 2 years while playing with Green his O has disappeared and he has become a -15 per year guy. Neither are top pair guys and it shows.

Ever year we have this same freaking debate about don't sign player X.... He is over rated.... we can't afford him.... wait till next years UFA class..... etc.... We didn't go after Niskenen, Shattenkirk, and TBH I doubt we get Carlson either. But imagine that BL with DD. That would be really good. But no. We sit around and do nothing and we hope that we draft some young studs and that they develop someday. That is not a complaint about drafting either. If that is the plan then why did we resign Tatar? Bring in Neilsson? Sign Daley? Sign Green? Resign Nyquist? Resign helm? Save our cap and let those guys leave/trade them.

Yes I am a fan of Carlson. Have been for years. But that does not blind me either. If we got Carlson at 7 years 49 million I would be happy as hell! If we signed Carlson at 7 years 70 million I would be pissed off!

If come September 2019 we had a top 4 of OEL making 10 million per year, Carlson making 7 million per year, DD making 5 million per year, and 1 of Cole/De Haan making 4 million per year I would be very very happy! That would be a great top 4. It also gives us time for youth to be drafted and developed. Cholowski for example is still 2-3 years away. That is a 5 year development cycle. Yes higher picks should be quicker. But it is not overnight, even with a can't miss prospect like Dahlin. It will take him a couple years to be fully adjusted to the NHL.

[Dabura 12,207]

Green was and is a solid second-pairing defenseman. Trotz worships the likes of Brooks Orpik, because "Big, mean, shutdown, shutdown, shutdown." Trotz does not trust the Mike Greens of the world.

Green's underlying numbers as a Capital were actually very impressive. His shortcomings on the defensive side of the puck have always been used to knock him, same way Erik Karlsson's been knocked for much of his career. I'm not saying Green is on Karlsson's level, but it's the same kind of thing. Green wasn't a third-pairing defenseman then and he isn't one now. He can be a liability in the d-zone, but he can also help power your offense in ways most defensemen can't. For a stopgap guy, he's been worth the money.

Look, it's not like I don't get where you're coming from. We need a 1D, Carlson is a 1D, therefore we should sign Carlson. If we sign him in the summer, we get a 1D and all it costs is money. That makes our team better. That could be a major shot in the arm for our "rebuild-on-the-fly" effort.

Thing is, I'm not sure Carlson really helps us all that much over the next several seasons, unless perhaps we get lucky in the draft. And if he does help us, I feel it would only be enough to put us back on the playoff bubble, maybe enough to just barely get us into the playoffs. That would hurt our draft positioning and would probably slow the rebuild effort.

I wasn't high on Niskanen. I don't feel we missed out on a great player there. I like Shattenkirk more than I like Niskanen, but I don't feel we missed out on a great player there. Shattenkirk, like Green, is a second-pairing guy who really earns his pay on the power play. They're offense-minded defensemen of the non-elite variety.

I like Carlson, but I don't think he makes much sense for us right now or in the near future, unless we're going to aggressively retool and Chuck Fletcher our way back into Cup contention.

Get a really good player with our first-round pick in the summer. Then get another really good player with our first-round pick in the next draft. Then do that again. Then do that again. Maybe sign a truly outstanding UFA like OEL along the way. This is pretty much our only realistic path back to relevance, assuming we don't get a Rasmus Dahlin type. (Though, even if we get Dahlin, we'd still have a big hill to climb.) Signing OEL and Carlson and de Haan isn't a plan, it's a pipe dream.

Wings fans have been clamoring for a clean slate. While we are indeed in cap hell, we also kind of have that clean slate. We're a bad team with next-to-nothing in the way of young building block players. We're a bottom-five team in the league. If we suck for the next three years, the next three drafts could give us what we need to re-establish ourselves as a really good team, or at least a team that's on the rise. I don't see a desperate need for a John Carlson at this time (assuming we don't get Dahlin or Svechnikov). I think it'd be too little too late for an organization that needs to build up a small army of young ELC impact players.

Edited December 23, 2017 by Dabura

[DickieDunn 2,571]

1 hour ago, Richdg said:

Green is so bad defensively I think many coaches would use him on the 3rd pair. Look what he has done to Dekeyser. In DD's first 2 full seasons he averaged 25 points each year and was +10 each year while playing is KFQ. The last 2 years while playing with Green his O has disappeared and he has become a -15 per year guy. Neither are top pair guys and it shows.

Ever year we have this same freaking debate about don't sign player X.... He is over rated.... we can't afford him.... wait till next years UFA class..... etc.... We didn't go after Niskenen, Shattenkirk, and TBH I doubt we get Carlson either. But imagine that BL with DD. That would be really good. But no. We sit around and do nothing and we hope that we draft some young studs and that they develop someday. That is not a complaint about drafting either. If that is the plan then why did we resign Tatar? Bring in Neilsson? Sign Daley? Sign Green? Resign Nyquist? Resign helm? Save our cap and let those guys leave/trade them.

Yes I am a fan of Carlson. Have been for years. But that does not blind me either. If we got Carlson at 7 years 49 million I would be happy as hell! If we signed Carlson at 7 years 70 million I would be pissed off!

If come September 2019 we had a top 4 of OEL making 10 million per year, Carlson making 7 million per year, DD making 5 million per year, and 1 of Cole/De Haan making 4 million per year I would be very very happy! That would be a great top 4. It also gives us time for youth to be drafted and developed. Cholowski for example is still 2-3 years away. That is a 5 year development cycle. Yes higher picks should be quicker. But it is not overnight, even with a can't miss prospect like Dahlin. It will take him a couple years to be fully adjusted to the NHL.

Dekeyser's play dropped off when he was used on the top pair without a legit #1 D partnered with him, because he's playing over his head now.  That's the problem with everyone playing in the top 4 on this defense.  Nobody is a top pair guy.  They have 3 2nd pair caliber guys in Green, Dekeyser, and Daley, and Kronwall, Ericsson, Ouellet and Jensen are 3rd pair/#7 caliber guys.  Add a guy like Carlson and everyone starts looking better because they can play roles they're suited for.  Assuming Green is traded and doesn't come back, if they sign Carlson they're still going to be short a 2nd pair D, so they'll need to bring in someone else through a trade or free agency, but:

Dekeyser-Carlson

new guy-Daley

Kronwall/Ericsson/XO/Jensen

That's still not going to be one of the top d corps in the league but it's at least capable.  

And yes, Carlson's numbers will likely dip a little, especially if Blashill is brought back (I think it's unlikely a this point but you never know) or if they bring in another bad coach.  He's still going to be a #1 caliber D-man though. 

[Richdg 267]

5 minutes ago, DickieDunn said:

Dekeyser's play dropped off when he was used on the top pair without a legit #1 D partnered with him, because he's playing over his head now.  That's the problem with everyone playing in the top 4 on this defense.  Nobody is a top pair guy.  They have 3 2nd pair caliber guys in Green, Dekeyser, and Daley, and Kronwall, Ericsson, Ouellet and Jensen are 3rd pair/#7 caliber guys.  Add a guy like Carlson and everyone starts looking better because they can play roles they're suited for.  Assuming Green is traded and doesn't come back, if they sign Carlson they're still going to be short a 2nd pair D, so they'll need to bring in someone else through a trade or free agency, but:

Dekeyser-Carlson

new guy-Daley

Kronwall/Ericsson/XO/Jensen

That's still not going to be one of the top d corps in the league but it's at least capable.  

And yes, Carlson's numbers will likely dip a little, especially if Blashill is brought back (I think it's unlikely a this point but you never know) or if they bring in another bad coach.  He's still going to be a #1 caliber D-man though. 

Yes that is part of DD's drop. He is a #3 Dman, not a top pair guy. He is also at his best rushing the puck forward with his great speed. Something that he isn't able to do playing with Green. He ahs to stay back and try to be the shut down guy, something he is not. Again part of that is coaching and part is the terrible roster that Holland has put together.

In your own pairings listed it shows the need for true 2nd pair guys like De Haan or Cole. That is what I am talking about. Which you and I agree on.

This whole it takes time thing is something that needs to go away now. It has been 5 years already and we are only getting worse. So is 10 years of sucking the plan? 15? Another decade of the Dead Wings? That is not ok with me. On top of that We really dont need to do it. We have a good young core of F's. We need 2-3 for the BL. There is no reason why a good GM can't find 2-3 players over the next 2 off seasons.

[Richdg 267]

Something we haven't seen in a long time is starting to happen. We are starting to see the terms: Detroit Sell off..... Red Wings in Seller mode....... Red Wing Sell Off.......

Been a long time since that has been seen.

[kliq 3,755]

Nobody wants De Haan and Cole other then you, lets move on.

[kliq 3,755]

30 minutes ago, Richdg said:

Something we haven't seen in a long time is starting to happen. We are starting to see the terms: Detroit Sell off..... Red Wings in Seller mode....... Red Wing Sell Off.......

Been a long time since that has been seen.

Trade deadline 2017?

[Dabura 12,207]

2 hours ago, Richdg said:

Yes that is part of DD's drop. He is a #3 Dman, not a top pair guy. He is also at his best rushing the puck forward with his great speed. Something that he isn't able to do playing with Green. He ahs to stay back and try to be the shut down guy, something he is not. Again part of that is coaching and part is the terrible roster that Holland has put together.

In your own pairings listed it shows the need for true 2nd pair guys like De Haan or Cole. That is what I am talking about. Which you and I agree on.

This whole it takes time thing is something that needs to go away now. It has been 5 years already and we are only getting worse. So is 10 years of sucking the plan? 15? Another decade of the Dead Wings? That is not ok with me. On top of that We really dont need to do it. We have a good young core of F's. We need 2-3 for the BL. There is no reason why a good GM can't find 2-3 players over the next 2 off seasons.

2 hours ago, Richdg said:

Something we haven't seen in a long time is starting to happen. We are starting to see the terms: Detroit Sell off..... Red Wings in Seller mode....... Red Wing Sell Off.......

Been a long time since that has been seen.

For the first time in 25 years the Wings are a basement team. We finally have an opportunity to draft in the top ten for a few years (and pick near the top of all the other rounds), but now people who routinely bash Holland for assembling mediocre teams are saying we should try to brute force our way out of this hole we're in and "throw all the money at all the UFAs," which would probably just lead to more mediocrity (assuming we'd actually manage to sign anyone of note). I, for one, appreciate the irony.

I want the Wings to build something truly great, truly sustainable. In this day and age, the way you do that is by drafting well and building up a small army of really good young players. Larkin, Mantha, Athanasiou, Svechnikov, Rasmussen, Cholowski, Saarijarvi, Hronek is a nice start, but it's not nearly enough. We need more than that. If we decide we don't need more than that, if we decide all we really need is a couple UFAs, then we're almost certainly setting ourselves up for failure.

I want the Wings to do this right. I want us to get Dahlin/Svechnikov/Boqvist/Hughes/Zadina/Tkachuk/Kupari/Wahlstrom, and then I want us to get another top-tier kid in 2019, and then I want us to get another top-tier kid in 2020, and I want a couple of our non-first-round picks to be homeruns. And if we can sign OEL in 2019, then hell yeah let's do it, because he's a proven top-tier defenseman. We don't really know what the Wings could do with three or four consecutive years of picking in the top ten of the entry draft, but I'm willing to bet the results would be good.

I don't think signing Carlson now would be wise. I think it's an immediate-gratification temptation, one we'd be wise to resist. I think the priority has to be drafting the young elite talent that damn near every team not named the Red Wings seems to have. I want us to slowly but surely reach the point where we have a core of young elite talent and a comfortable cap situation. That, to me, is The Dream. Spending the next few years as a basement team is probably the surest way to make that dream a reality in under five years.

(P.S. DeKeyser does not have great speed.)

Edited December 23, 2017 by Dabura

[Dabura 12,207]

(P.P.S. Cole and de Haan are meh.)

[Buppy 1,720]

49 minutes ago, Dabura said:

Thing is, I'm not sure Carlson really helps us all that much over the next several seasons, unless perhaps we get lucky in the draft. And if he does help us, I feel it would only be enough to put us back on the playoff bubble, maybe enough to just barely get us into the playoffs. That would hurt our draft positioning and would probably slow the rebuild effort.

I like Carlson, but I don't think he makes much sense for us right now or in the near future, unless we're going to aggressively retool and Chuck Fletcher our way back into Cup contention.

Get a really good player with our first-round pick in the summer. Then get another really good player with our first-round pick in the next draft. Then do that again. Then do that again. Maybe sign a truly outstanding UFA like OEL along the way. This is pretty much our only realistic path back to relevance, assuming we don't get a Rasmus Dahlin type. (Though, even if we get Dahlin, we'd still have a big hill to climb.) Signing OEL and Carlson and de Haan isn't a plan, it's a pipe dream.

While I can understand the idea that adding Carlson could possibly hurt our draft position in the future, I think you're under-rating him a bit. I'd put him on basically the same level as OEL; 2nd-tier guy not all that far behind the elite, Norris-caliber types. Also think having an excellent all-around, all-situation, big-minute defender in his prime would be great for the young players we already have, and might add this year. 

A deal in the $7M range is probably workable even without any effort to shed salary (other than just letting Green and Mrazek go), and also wouldn't be likely to handcuff us any in the future. 

I think there's little chance that Washington will let him go, as they're in good shape cap-wise. But if they do he'd be a great target to go after. Better than trading for Karlsson, I'd say. Also rather have him than go after Tavares. 

12 minutes ago, DickieDunn said:

Dekeyser's play dropped off when he was used on the top pair without a legit #1 D partnered with him, because he's playing over his head now.  That's the problem with everyone playing in the top 4 on this defense.  Nobody is a top pair guy.  They have 3 2nd pair caliber guys in Green, Dekeyser, and Daley, and Kronwall, Ericsson, Ouellet and Jensen are 3rd pair/#7 caliber guys.  Add a guy like Carlson and everyone starts looking better because they can play roles they're suited for.  Assuming Green is traded and doesn't come back, if they sign Carlson they're still going to be short a 2nd pair D, so they'll need to bring in someone else through a trade or free agency, but:...

Dekeyser-Quincey was our primary shutdown pair in Babcock's last year, and that was Dekeyser's best season. I don't think he's regressed because he's been playing over his head, but maybe the other way around. Why he's regressed is a good question. Both Green and Blashill seem to be a bad fit for him, but likely more than that. Maybe just other players have figured him out and hasn't been able to adapt, or maybe he was just unusually lucky his first couple years. If we could get him back to what he was in 14-15 it would be as valuable as almost any addition we could make. 

But replacing Green with Carlson doesn't change anyone's role. 

2 minutes ago, Richdg said:

This whole it takes time thing is something that needs to go away now. It has been 5 years already and we are only getting worse. So is 10 years of sucking the plan? 15? Another decade of the Dead Wings? That is not ok with me. On top of that We really dont need to do it. We have a good young core of F's. We need 2-3 for the BL. There is no reason why a good GM can't find 2-3 players over the next 2 off seasons.

5 years in which we have added quite a few good pieces, even core pieces, for the future while not even actually "sucking", but rather just being a low-end playoff team. Whether you or anyone wants to admit it or not, it does take time, and some luck. 10+ years would not be at all unusual. Yzerman is #1 in pretty much everyone's slideshow. He started with Stamkos and Hedman (who could take a decade to find by themselves, without considerable luck) and the 6th overall pick. Added two more top 10 picks since, plus a dream 2011 draft, and only now 8 years later are truly looking like an elite team.

No doubt signing Carlson and/or OEL would have a huge impact, but it's unlikely that either will even be available, much less that we would be able to sign both. 

[Dabura 12,207]

1 minute ago, Buppy said:

While I can understand the idea that adding Carlson could possibly hurt our draft position in the future, I think you're under-rating him a bit. I'd put him on basically the same level as OEL; 2nd-tier guy not all that far behind the elite, Norris-caliber types. Also think having an excellent all-around, all-situation, big-minute defender in his prime would be great for the young players we already have, and might add this year. 

A deal in the $7M range is probably workable even without any effort to shed salary (other than just letting Green and Mrazek go), and also wouldn't be likely to handcuff us any in the future. 

I think there's little chance that Washington will let him go, as they're in good shape cap-wise. But if they do he'd be a great target to go after. Better than trading for Karlsson, I'd say. Also rather have him than go after Tavares.

That's fair.

Like I've said, I like Carlson and I'm not totally opposed to signing him. A good friend of mine is a Caps fan, so I've seen a lot of Caps games over the years. My informal assessment of Carlson is that he's a good 1D who's greatly benefited from playing on some really good teams. A big reason why I rate Ekman-Larsson higher is that he's done great things on weaker teams. We're a weak team now and we're probably destined to be a weak team for the next few years, and I'm not convinced playing on such a team wouldn't hurt Carlson's game.

I'm assuming Larkin and Mantha get big deals this summer and that those deals will eat up most of the space freed up by Green and Mrazek leaving (assuming we part with Green, which isn't a given). Dunno what happens with Athanasiou, but if he stays, it won't be for peanuts. Maybe the cap rising gives us the room we need to comfortably sign Carlson. If we can make it work on paper and it looks like a no-brainer fit, I'm down, I guess. I'm pretty firmly down if we get Dahlin or Svechnikov or Boqvist, as I think any one of those would be a gamechanger for the Wings and any one of those players + Carlson could immediately make us a significantly better team.

I guess I've just reached a point where I'm ready for the suck and I'm kind of done with pining for marquee UFAs. I've embraced the dark side; I'm ready for us to finally be really bad for a few years and finally get some of that sweet, sweet top-of-the-draft action. Getting Carlson does improve our team, but I'm not high enough on him that I'm really excited about the idea of signing him. Maybe two or three years ago, when we still had an outside shot at a Cup run and were arguably a piece or two away from being a legit Cup contender. But now? Eh. *shrug*

I agree that the Caps probably don't let him go in the first place. This is all probably moot.

[Richdg 267]

2 hours ago, Dabura said:

That's fair.

Like I've said, I like Carlson and I'm not totally opposed to signing him. A good friend of mine is a Caps fan, so I've seen a lot of Caps games over the years. My informal assessment of Carlson is that he's a good 1D who's greatly benefited from playing on some really good teams. A big reason why I rate Ekman-Larsson higher is that he's done great things on weaker teams. We're a weak team now and we're probably destined to be a weak team for the next few years, and I'm not convinced playing on such a team wouldn't hurt Carlson's game.

I'm assuming Larkin and Mantha get big deals this summer and that those deals will eat up most of the space freed up by Green and Mrazek leaving (assuming we part with Green, which isn't a given). Dunno what happens with Athanasiou, but if he stays, it won't be for peanuts. Maybe the cap rising gives us the room we need to comfortably sign Carlson. If we can make it work on paper and it looks like a no-brainer fit, I'm down, I guess. I'm pretty firmly down if we get Dahlin or Svechnikov or Boqvist, as I think any one of those would be a gamechanger for the Wings and any one of those players + Carlson could immediately make us a significantly better team.

I guess I've just reached a point where I'm ready for the suck and I'm kind of done with pining for marquee UFAs. I've embraced the dark side; I'm ready for us to finally be really bad for a few years and finally get some of that sweet, sweet top-of-the-draft action. Getting Carlson does improve our team, but I'm not high enough on him that I'm really excited about the idea of signing him. Maybe two or three years ago, when we still had an outside shot at a Cup run and were arguably a piece or two away from being a legit Cup contender. But now? Eh. *shrug*

I agree that the Caps probably don't let him go in the first place. This is all probably moot.

This I do agree with. It will be hard for us to get any of these guys. Why would a top level UFA want to come here to suck?

We need to show some direction to land those guys again. Play it out in our minds for a minute. We do nothing big this off season. Miss the playoffs again after the 2018/19 season and have another bottom 10 season. All 3 of Karlsson, OEL and Doughty become UFA's. We free up 15 million in cap in the meantime. Does anyone really think that any of those 3 guys are going to want to come here? Why would they? Doughty isn't going to leave the Kings and a SC caliber team to come to a bottom dweller. OEL has been on a sucky team for most of his career. You think he wants to continue that? Karlson the same?

Now flip it the other way around. we make a move or 2, show we are on the upswing with a good young core. Maybe even make the PO's next season, and we have the cap. Maybe.... just maybe we can lure one of these big timers to join us. Still a very slim chance, but the odds do improve.

I do not beleive for 1 second that Carlson alone or the other Karlsson for that matter is going to make us a PO team again. We need 4 or 5 pieces added, 2-3 on the BL. But we have to start somewhere. If not then in a couple of years Oiler fans will start talking about us sucking for so long like we used to joke about the Oilers.......

[Buppy 1,720]

2 hours ago, Richdg said:

This I do agree with. It will be hard for us to get any of these guys. Why would a top level UFA want to come here to suck?

We need to show some direction to land those guys again. Play it out in our minds for a minute. We do nothing big this off season. Miss the playoffs again after the 2018/19 season and have another bottom 10 season. All 3 of Karlsson, OEL and Doughty become UFA's. We free up 15 million in cap in the meantime. Does anyone really think that any of those 3 guys are going to want to come here? Why would they? Doughty isn't going to leave the Kings and a SC caliber team to come to a bottom dweller. OEL has been on a sucky team for most of his career. You think he wants to continue that? Karlson the same?

Now flip it the other way around. we make a move or 2, show we are on the upswing with a good young core. Maybe even make the PO's next season, and we have the cap. Maybe.... just maybe we can lure one of these big timers to join us. Still a very slim chance, but the odds do improve.

I do not beleive for 1 second that Carlson alone or the other Karlsson for that matter is going to make us a PO team again. We need 4 or 5 pieces added, 2-3 on the BL. But we have to start somewhere. If not then in a couple of years Oiler fans will start talking about us sucking for so long like we used to joke about the Oilers.......

Not sure what you're trying to say here. Top UFAs don't want to come here, so we need to sign a top UFA like Carlson to show some "direction"?

I think the whole "top players only want to play for top contenders" idea is way over-stated. Lot of reasons a player will choose to play somewhere, and I haven't heard anything to suggest that Detroit isn't still a very well respected organization. It's not like we're the only team in NHL history to miss the playoffs. Don't know why so many Wings fans have this idea that it's so egregiously bad for the Wings to now go through what literally every other team in the league has gone through multiple times since the last time we did. What will make it difficult to land any of those guys is that it is unlikely that any of them will actually become UFAs. I would be pretty surprised if even one of them do (including Carlson this summer). If they did, we'd still be only one of many teams vying for them, so even if each team was given equal consideration the odds overall would still be against us. 

If you really think "a couple of years" more of this would put us in the same category as Edmonton, you need some seriously intense psychotherapy. They missed the playoffs for 10 consecutive years, over that time finishing with 86 fewer points than any other team, last twice, bottom five 7 times. And that decade of awfulness was immediately preceded by more than a decade of being mediocre or worse. Overall for that 25 year period they were a bottom 5 team in the league. We've been middle of the pack over the last 5 years with last year being the first time finishing lower than 15th overall. Still haven't finished bottom 5 (though we're working on it this year). We still have the 15th most playoff wins over the last 5 years. We are a long, long way away from anyone making fun of us, much less Edmonton doing so. 

[Richdg 267]

11 hours ago, Buppy said:

Not sure what you're trying to say here. Top UFAs don't want to come here, so we need to sign a top UFA like Carlson to show some "direction"?

I think the whole "top players only want to play for top contenders" idea is way over-stated. Lot of reasons a player will choose to play somewhere, and I haven't heard anything to suggest that Detroit isn't still a very well respected organization. It's not like we're the only team in NHL history to miss the playoffs. Don't know why so many Wings fans have this idea that it's so egregiously bad for the Wings to now go through what literally every other team in the league has gone through multiple times since the last time we did. What will make it difficult to land any of those guys is that it is unlikely that any of them will actually become UFAs. I would be pretty surprised if even one of them do (including Carlson this summer). If they did, we'd still be only one of many teams vying for them, so even if each team was given equal consideration the odds overall would still be against us. 

If you really think "a couple of years" more of this would put us in the same category as Edmonton, you need some seriously intense psychotherapy. They missed the playoffs for 10 consecutive years, over that time finishing with 86 fewer points than any other team, last twice, bottom five 7 times. And that decade of awfulness was immediately preceded by more than a decade of being mediocre or worse. Overall for that 25 year period they were a bottom 5 team in the league. We've been middle of the pack over the last 5 years with last year being the first time finishing lower than 15th overall. Still haven't finished bottom 5 (though we're working on it this year). We still have the 15th most playoff wins over the last 5 years. We are a long, long way away from anyone making fun of us, much less Edmonton doing so. 

The Oilers used to say the same things. It will not go on for long.... we were great.... we can rebuild strictly through the draft..... It didn't work. It still isn't working. Every year they have a top 5 pick, take players rated in the top 5 by everyone, and they still suck. Yes they are the best example of sucking there is, no doubt. Chicago, LA, Boston etc.... All have rebuilt much quicker. Those teams also have added big time UFA's and made trades to add in their rebuilds. None of those teams did it 100% through the draft. You need great young talents and great vets in the prime of their careers. That is the part we are missing. Look at our last 5 1st round picks. All are talented and look promising. I guarentee that not all of them will make it. Injuries, failure to develop, over rated talent does happen to every team. There are no sure things in the draft. To say nothing of the later rounds. We have yet to have a guy from the second round or later taken in the 2013 drafts till now to turn into anything. Maybe someone does there is some talent. But again that is 5 years worth of drafts. We have 2 players from the last 5 drafts that have produced. Mantha and Larkin, that is it. Why do we expect the next 5 drafts to be better?

There are still only 3 ways to get talent: draft, trade, and sign UFA's. Teams that limit themselves to only 1 method are doomed. You have to use all tools available to win.