Official 2018 Off Season *Rebuild* Thread

[chaps80 1,591]

10 minutes ago, Neomaxizoomdweebie said:

https://www.tsn.ca/the-significant-risk-of-drafting-a-goalie-early-1.51212

Pretty much. McCollum was a hell of a goalie in junior, which is why Detroit gambled a late first on him. But as we all know, he could never crack the big team in over a decade with the franchise. He didn't give the team any reason to give him a backup spot over a UFA journeyman and then was leapfrogged by both Mrazek and Coreau. Bust.

[Neomaxizoomdweebie 3,083]

27 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

Yeah, I don't see Cholowski or Hronek as anything more than 2/3 defensemen. I think if we take Bouchard with our 6th overall pick, he could make the Wings roster out of camp, immediately be one of our better defensemen, and develop into a legit 1D within a few years.

The most we'd be able to sign Carlson would be 7 years, and I'd be comfortable with $7.5M, if we could offload one of Ericsson, DeKeyser or Daley, or if Kronwall ends up on LTIR. I'm really hoping this D-corp goes through a major overhaul over the next two seasons. I'd be okay if DeKeyser is the only defenseman remaining in two years time. And I'd definitely be okay with Carlson being part of that group, but only if we can A) get him on a reasonable contract, and B) offload a big contract / free up a roster spot.

DeKeyser - Carlson

Cholowski - Bouchard

Sulak - Hronek

That could be a pretty solid defense in a couple years time...

He is literally the only D drafted that I could see making the team (except Dahlin of course). I still think its highly unlikely tho.

[krsmith17 7,191]

18 minutes ago, Neomaxizoomdweebie said:

He is literally the only D drafted that I could see making the team (except Dahlin of course). I still think its highly unlikely tho.

I wouldn't say "highly" unlikely. I'd give it a 50/50 chance. I legitimately think he would make any other team out of camp in the bottom 8 of the league. You're right that he probably wouldn't make the Wings though. Not because he shouldn't, but because of the ridiculous log jam of mediocre defensemen... But yeah, he's definitely the most NHL ready outside of Dahlin.

[krsmith17 7,191]

8 hours ago, Jonas Mahonas said:

KRS, if you were the GM and could make moves like you propose, we'd have the best defense on the planet and every other team would be wondering where all their talent went.  

I apologize if I'm putting deals together that actually make sense FOR THE OTHER TEAM too.

"Helm and a third for Erik Karlsson.  Ottawa probably wouldn't do it tho."

 - KRSmith

Yah, let's speculate on whether Winnepeg is going to trade a first round pick 1B defenseman entering his prime for our 4th round, 16 goal scoring, 3rd line center that no one really cares about except us Wings fans.

I'm ok with you bashing my trade ideas, dude.  But you acting like yours are better is LAUGHABLE.

Yup, your deals definitely make sense FOR THE OTHER TEAM. Unfortunately, they don't at all FOR THE RED WINGS... Please tell me, what would you trade for Josh Manson? Since he's going to be the best defenseman in the world, I would expect a king's ransom sort of deal... Larkin, Mantha, Rasmussen, Cholowski, 2018 6th overall pick, 2019 1st round pick, Carley Johnston, Al Sobotka, and a lifetime supply of Little Caesars Pizza? Sounds fair...

You put WAY too much stock into where players were drafted 5+ years ago. It literally means nothing. In your mind, Frk for Gaudreau would be a bad trade because Frk was drafted in the 2nd round and Gaudreau was drafted in the 4th round...

By the way, I said I don't think Athanasiou would get us a 1st round pick or top prospect, so don't act like I said he would get us Trouba straight up. I didn't and I don't.

Who knows though, if negotiations between Cheveldayoff and Trouba go south (again), maybe he'll want out (again). If that were to happen, Holland better be calling. You think Athanasiou, Hronek and the 2018 29th overall pick is low-balling? I'd hate to see what you'd offer... Trouba isn't quite as established as Hamilton, so instead of your ludicrous offer of Larkin, Cholowski and the 6th overall pick, it would just be Larkin and the 6th overall pick?...

I may low-ball some of my "armchair GM" trades, but they're definitely a lot more realistic than your massive over-payments.

 

[LeftWinger 4,963]

I honestly don't see Kenny trading for anyone.  He's said for the last 4-5 years that you build through the draft. He's especially not going to pay the price it's going to take to get any of the D-men we're mentioning. Fast forward to Erik Karlsson (if he becomes UFA) and I can see Holland going large for him.

Edited May 11, 2018 by LeftWinger

[krsmith17 7,191]

15 minutes ago, LeftWinger said:

I honestly don't see Kenny trading for anyone.  He's said for the last 4-5 years that you build through the draft. He's especially not going to pay the price it's going to take to get any of the D-men we're mentioning. Fast forward to Erik Karlsson (if he becomes UFA) and I can see Holland going large for him.

Yes, teams need to build through the draft in the cap era, but to be successful, you also need to be willing / able to make key trades as well. Holland has mentioned this in his end of season press conference. He said he's willing to make a player for player "hockey trade". No one's really expecting to get any of the established top defensemen, but maybe we can get a young, un-established defenseman from a team (like Carolina, Philadelphia, Nashville) that has a plethora of high end defensemen on their roster and in their system. Trades can and should be made. Hopefully Holland puts his words into action and has a big offseason...

[Dabura 12,207]

17 hours ago, krsmith17 said:

Yeah, I don't see Cholowski or Hronek as anything more than 2/3 defensemen. I think if we take Bouchard with our 6th overall pick, he could make the Wings roster out of camp, immediately be one of our better defensemen, and develop into a legit 1D within a few years.

The most we'd be able to sign Carlson would be 7 years, and I'd be comfortable with $7.5M, if we could offload one of Ericsson, DeKeyser or Daley, or if Kronwall ends up on LTIR. I'm really hoping this D-corp goes through a major overhaul over the next two seasons. I'd be okay if DeKeyser is the only defenseman remaining in two years time. And I'd definitely be okay with Carlson being part of that group, but only if we can A) get him on a reasonable contract, and B) offload a big contract / free up a roster spot.

DeKeyser - Carlson

Cholowski - Bouchard

Sulak - Hronek

That could be a pretty solid defense in a couple years time...

I keep forgetting 7 years is the max term. Thanks for pointing that out.

Man, I'm just so tired of this defense saga. I want it to be over. Giving Carlson an unreasonable contract would be risky, but we need that 1D. We need a firm foundation to build on. We need to have a functional transition game so our team can actually play "the right way" and learn and grow, as opposed to continuing to spend most nights running around and chasing the puck. We need an all-situations minute-muncher to mentor and shelter the coming wave of young defensemen.

I'm with you: I really hope Holland plans on overhauling the back end over the next couple of years. But even if it happens, it could just be a younger-but-equally-mediocre defense group. I worry that this team isn't going to be able to take a real step forward until it has a real 1D, and I worry that we're a long way from having that 1D unless we somehow sign one through free agency.

Edited May 11, 2018 by Dabura

[Dabura 12,207]

As for freeing up cap space to fit in a hypothetical Carlson contract...

Holland won't trade Ericsson. Green wouldn't be signed. I'm not sure we can salary dump DeKeyser without having to take on someone else's problem contract or give up a prime asset or two. I have a feeling Kronwall's going to play out next season. Daley could be doable. Maybe Daley and Helm/Nyquist. Maybe AA.

[LeftWinger 4,963]

Let us not forget, Lidstrom was a 3rd round pick. It could be something like that that could redefine our D.

[Dabura 12,207]

1 hour ago, LeftWinger said:

Let us not forget, Lidstrom was a 3rd round pick. It could be something like that that could redefine our D.

I mean, I'm not saying free agency is the only way we're going to get a 1D. I just fear it's the only way we're going to get a 1D within the next few years. Granted, my "cautious pessimism" on this issue is rooted in the Wings' total failure to draft and develop one single really high-end NHL defenseman since Niklas Kronwall, and I get that that failure is largely a result of the Wings trading away so many draft picks. With the Wings now being a lottery team and with Holland stockpiling draft picks, and with a Hronek and Cholowski and probably Hughes/Boqvist/Bouchard/Dobson in the pipeline, it's reasonable to assume we're on the verge of breaking the Kronwall curse. But even so, I'm thinking overpaying for a known 1D might be better than waiting for a homegrown 1D who may or may not arrive soon.

The Wings can follow the Cheveldayoff-Jets model of slowly (slooowwwwly) building up incredible depth through the draft and making some shrewd deals every now and then. But I dunno if the Wings organization and Wings fans will have the patience for that. I dunno if our Winning Culture can survive what could be a long stay in the basement. If Holland is dead serious about pulling off a relatively quick rebuild, he might have to overpay for a top UFA.

[Neomaxizoomdweebie 3,083]

Realistically tho, the only way to really get a true 1D is thru the draft. On the rare occasion that one becomes a free agent, there are too many teams trying to sign them and the contracts get way out of hand. Plus the team who does sign them is usually already good, and they pay the price later for those contracts. Trading for one isn't really any better as its short-sighted, and the assets required to obtain one are too high of a price to pay. 

I m not sold on Carlson. I see him more as another Niskanen. He may be a top pair D, but he will not be worth his new contract, I guarantee it.

The best course to take IMO is to continue to draft heavily on D. All of the best Wings players since Yzerman have all been later round picks (after the 2nd round). At some point we will hit on one of those picks and find the next Lidstrom. Even a blind squirrel finds the occasional nut.

27 minutes ago, F.Michael said:

All in all it matters on luck.

Luck in the fact that the guys we pick actually turn out to what they're projected to be with regards to our 1st rounders, and additional luck with our multiple 2nd, and 3rd round picks that they become NHL'ers at some level, and not career ECHL'ers.

Many teams are mired in mediocrity courtesy of bad luck/bad mgt/etc.

The new NHL is more, or less a crapshoot.

Some people call it "parity".

Edited May 11, 2018 by Neomaxizoomdweebie

[Dabura 12,207]

21 minutes ago, Neomaxizoomdweebie said:

Realistically tho, the only way to really get a true 1D is thru the draft. On the rare occasion that one becomes a free agent, there are too many teams trying to sign them and the contracts get way out of hand. Plus the team who does sign them is usually already good, and they pay the price later for those contracts. Trading for one isn't really any better as its short-sighted, and the assets required to obtain one are too high of a price to pay. 

I m not sold on Carlson. I see him more as another Niskanen. He may be a top pair D, but he will not be worth his new contract, I guarantee it.

The best course to take IMO is to continue to draft heavily on D. All of the best Wings players since Yzerman have all been later round picks (after the 2nd round). At some point we will hit on one of those picks and find the next Lidstrom. Even a blind squirrel finds the occasional nut.

I want instant gratification and I want it now.

[krsmith17 7,191]

3 hours ago, Dabura said:

I keep forgetting 7 years is the max term. Thanks for pointing that out.

Man, I'm just so tired of this defense saga. I want it to be over. Giving Carlson an unreasonable contract would be risky, but we need that 1D. We need a firm foundation to build on. We need to have a functional transition game so our team can actually play "the right way" and learn and grow, as opposed to continuing to spend most nights running around and chasing the puck. We need an all-situations minute-muncher to mentor and shelter the coming wave of young defensemen.

I'm with you: I really hope Holland plans on overhauling the back end over the next couple of years. But even if it happens, it could just be a younger-but-equally-mediocre defense group. I worry that this team isn't going to be able to take a real step forward until it has a real 1D, and I worry that we're a long way from having that 1D unless we somehow sign one through free agency.

The problem though is that I don't see 7 years at $7-7.5M all that unreasonable, and is likely the bare minimum he will get. I can totally see Carlson getting $8.5M+. That's when you have to ask yourself if you really want to sign him to that sort of contract. I'd love to have Carlson on this team, but I'm not sure if I'd be comfortable giving him that much for that long. But again, I'd definitely consider it if we could offload a couple bigger contracts.

I agree with everything else. We desperately need a high end defenseman to lead and teach the kids, and I'm not sure how confident I am in Kronwall or Daley being that player. This defense could (should) get really young, really quick, and I believe Carlson would be a good mentor to lead players like Cholowski and *Bouchard*...

3 hours ago, Dabura said:

As for freeing up cap space to fit in a hypothetical Carlson contract...

Holland won't trade Ericsson. Green wouldn't be signed. I'm not sure we can salary dump DeKeyser without having to take on someone else's problem contract or give up a prime asset or two. I have a feeling Kronwall's going to play out next season. Daley could be doable. Maybe Daley and Helm/Nyquist. Maybe AA.

I honestly think Holland would be more willing / able to trade Ericsson than DeKeyser. At this point, I'd be shocked, no scrap that, a little surprised if Green is re-signed. Yeah, I'd move any and all of Daley, Helm, Nyquist and Athanasiou, among others. Free up cap space and roster spots. Accelerate this rebuild...

[krsmith17 7,191]

50 minutes ago, Neomaxizoomdweebie said:

Realistically tho, the only way to really get a true 1D is thru the draft. On the rare occasion that one becomes a free agent, there are too many teams trying to sign them and the contracts get way out of hand. Plus the team who does sign them is usually already good, and they pay the price later for those contracts. Trading for one isn't really any better as its short-sighted, and the assets required to obtain one are too high of a price to pay. 

I m not sold on Carlson. I see him more as another Niskanen. He may be a top pair D, but he will not be worth his new contract, I guarantee it.

The best course to take IMO is to continue to draft heavily on D. All of the best Wings players since Yzerman have all been later round picks (after the 2nd round). At some point we will hit on one of those picks and find the next Lidstrom. Even a blind squirrel finds the occasional nut.

Yeah, most number one defensemen are acquired through the draft. No doubt. And like you said, very few number one defensemen hit free agency, and the ones that do, are usually massively overpaid. I agree with all that. The thing I disagree with is trading for one. Not many established number one defensemen are traded, and same as free agency, the ones that are, you have to massively overpay for (in assets). However, trading for a young, un-established defensemen doesn't cost nearly as much. Of course it can be a bit of a gamble, because they're not sure things, but a 19, 20, 21 year old is a little more of a sure thing than a 17, 18 year old off the draft table.

Hamilton was traded three years ago and has developed into a number one. Theodore was traded last year and will likely develop into a number one. I'm not convinced we couldn't have traded for Theodore before he was traded in the expansion draft, but that's different rant... There are players like this out there now. It's just going to take some balls from our GM to pull it off. Did he mean what he said in making a hockey trade? If so, make one for a young defenseman with the potential to become a 1D... Get it done Kenny!

[ChristopherReevesLegs 7,022]

I say we spend our way outta this hole trying to recapture the glory of the past

[krsmith17 7,191]

42 minutes ago, Jonas Mahonas said:

You have to take into account the situation of the player and team as well, KRS.

So why would you ever think you could offer something of lesser value to a team when THEY are in the driver's seat?

Because you can. Why wouldn't you?

Yeah, it's probably much smarter to skip the negotiation process and just massively overpay right off the bat... I don't care if they're in the driver's seat, you still don't massively overpay. 

Teams can afford to overpay when they're a Cup contender. Teams that aren't, can't. Simple as that. You don't give up multiple assets including a 6th overall pick (in one of the best drafts in years), your best player (who is only 21 years old), and your top defense prospect, for one, albeit very good young defenseman, if you're a rebuilding team. I don't care if it's three "unknowns" for a known. You don't do it. It's dumb. 

[krsmith17 7,191]

7 minutes ago, Jonas Mahonas said:

We finished 5th to last while actually trying.  You realize that, right?

Yes, I am aware... What does that have to do with anything, other than further my point? We're rebuilding...

[kickazz 5,459]

1 hour ago, Jonas Mahonas said:

And what type of pieces do you need most?

A two piece for sure 

[Neomaxizoomdweebie 3,083]

4 hours ago, Jonas Mahonas said:

You have to take into account the situation of the player and team as well, KRS.

 

The Bruins traded Hamilton to the Calgary Flames on Friday just hours ahead of the NHL draft in exchange for the Flames' 2015 first round pick (No. 15 overall) and two 2015 second round picks (No. 45 and 52).

 

Why can't the Wings get him for Larkin (1st Rounder, #15) and a few 2nd Round picks like Calgary did?

 

A) we don't have any cap space like Calgary did

B) He's not the same locker room cancer anymore

C) He's not a pending FA

D) Calgary is getting a great ROI on him

 

So why would you ever think you could offer something of lesser value to a team when THEY are in the driver's seat?

Except I wouldn't substitute Larkin for a 1st rounder. Larkin is a known, he's a top line or at worst, a  2nd line center. A 1st round pick is always a risk.  Could bust, could boom, which is why a mid first rounder is worth less than Larkin. And why I wouldn't do that deal. Would I give up what Calgary gave up for him? Yes, I would. But either Larkin or 6th overall plus our two seconds? Too rich for my blood.

[matemate 34]

sulak and hronek looks great in wch, i tink they are nhl ready.

 

keep jensen and dekyser.

 

kronwall and green is not good enough anymore, we need to sign best possible free agent d-man, 2 of them, if we only can get one then go and find a zaitsev in khl.

 

svechnikov is nhl ready, even thought he did not dominate in AHL i think he can play in NHL, he got some world class skills.

 

please trade nyquist, he still got some value.

 

Free agent - free agent/zaitsev level player from khl

Sulak - Hronek

Jensen - DeKeyser

 

Mantha - Larkin - Andreas

Svechnikov - Zetterberg - Nyquist trade

Frk - Nielsen - Rasmussen/draft pick 2018

Bertuzzi - Helm - Abdelkalder

 

[LeftWinger 4,963]

Wow, didn't know there was anyone left with a minus rep.

I gave ya a like to get you back on the right track!

[krsmith17 7,191]

9 hours ago, Jonas Mahonas said:

And what type of pieces do you need most?

What does this even mean?...

 

[LeftWinger 4,963]

On ‎5‎/‎12‎/‎2018 at 7:53 AM, krsmith17 said:

What does this even mean?...

 

I'm looking for this piece if anyone can help...

 

 

Edited July 23, 2018 by LeftWinger

[krsmith17 7,191]

57 minutes ago, Jonas Mahonas said:

It means that if you have a chance to trade for a 1B that could possibly be a 1A, and you're missing both of those spots,  you should seriously consider it at ALL costs.  We won cups first and foremost because of Lidstrom.  The other pieces were important, but not nearly as important as Lidstrom.  When you rebuild and you are missing cornerstones, you get the cornerstones first.  Not the other way around.

You're comparing Hamilton to Lidstrom now?

You don't trade a 2C that will likely develop into a 1C, a top defense prospect, who will likely develop into a number 2 or 3 defenseman, and a 6th overall pick, who could have the same sort of ceiling (or maybe higher) as the guy you're advocating trading for... Again, it's dumb.

IF Holland were dumb enough to offer that sort of package for Hamilton (lucky for us, he's not) Treliving would do it without hesitation and Holland would (hopefully) lose his job.

Larkin is a cornerstone. The 6th overall pick will likely be a cornerstone. And you think we should trade both, plus another piece for one cornerstone. Great managerial skills...

[LeftWinger 4,963]

With all due respect to Lidstrom, he was not the reason nor the cornerstone for us winning the Cups in 97 and 98. He was great, but he was only one part in a machine.

I agree, you are offering way too much for Hamilton. As much as you need a "Hamilton" on the blueline, you also desperately need a Larkin in the top 6. There is nobody in the system that could replace Larkin. We'll draft our version of Hamilton (hopefully Bouchard) and we'll still have Larkin. Win-Win.