Official 2019 Offseason Rebuild Thread

[kipwinger 8,772]

1 minute ago, Jonas Mahonas said:

So how do we relate this info back to the topic?

Give it the old college try?

[Dabura 12,232]

1 hour ago, kipwinger said:

Analytics, old or new, are an objective way to evaluate players across a set of metrics.  You can argue that the measurements are bad, or misleading, or incorrectly applied, but you can't argue with the results because they're empirical.  If any stat is good, bad, or in between it's good, bad, or in between for all players equally.  And so for comparative purposes it has value.  HERO charts just measure points per game and shot effects. Saying "Ericsson should be sitting instead of Cholowski because look at his HERO" is no different than saying "Ericsson should be sitting instead of Cholowski because he scores less per 60 minutes, gives up more shots on goal, and doesn't shoot as much". Seems pretty reasonable to me.  Note: this is kind of a bad example because Cholowski, being a rookie, doesn't have a HERO chart yet so I don't know whether he's better in these areas than Ericsson.

Right, which is why I said I don't have a problem with the stats themselves.

The Cholowski-over-Ericsson argument can be a winning argument based on empirical data, but there's a reality beyond pure numbers. Maybe Blashill will sit Cholowski and not Ericsson because it's smart to give a rookie a break every now and then. Maybe when people say there's no reason why Cholowski should be sitting instead of Ericsson, they should also point out that Cholowski's underlying numbers suggest he's been struggling.

I'm expressing frustration that's been building for a couple of years now. I'm seeing more and more people becoming intellectually lazy and/or dishonest in the way they value and employ these stats. That's just my experience, though.

To be clear: I'm not trying to slag the many people who do good, honest, important work with analytics.

1 hour ago, kipwinger said:

Secondly, I don't think there's anything wrong with Blashill's system (best I can tell being an amateur).  Our defensemen do a good job with all the defensive parts of the game.  Unfortunately defensemen in today's game need to jumpstart the transition, jump up into the rush, and produce on the powerplay consistently as well.  Ours doesn't.  Weird as it is to say, defenses can't just play defense anymore and that's where we need to improve.  It's not that gap control, shot blocking, zone coverage, and board battles aren't important, it's just that they aren't enough anymore. 

Agreed. Point was, basically, we seem to have a system that more or less gets the job done in the D zone. If you cycle in new blood that can 1) play this system effectively and 2) provide better puck movement and other contributions on offense, that might (*might*) be all we need. In that sense, I agree with you that our defense isn't necessarily the disaster that it's generally understood to be and we might not need a Victor Hedman type. Hell, every time we lose a close game I wonder where this team would be if it had a dependable power play.

[Dabura 12,232]

This is an example of what I'm talking about:

Can someone explain why Dennis Cholowski is a healthy scratch? [Wings Nation]

Quote

Blashill has to understand this is a lost season and development of players is more important than trying to squeak out a point or two here and there.

The author acknowledges that sitting a young player can help that player, but the main thrust of the argument is "Cholowski is way better than Ericsson and he needs to be playing every night because that's what's best for his development and the team. Look at these numbers. Cholowski is better than Ericsson. This is outrageous." IMO, it's focusing too hard on the numbers.

[Dabura 12,232]

1 hour ago, Jonas Mahonas said:

So how do we relate this info back to the topic?

We must rebuild.

[kickazz 5,459]

26 minutes ago, Dabura said:

We must rebuild.

Official. 2019.

Edited January 28, 2019 by kickazz

[Jonas Mahonas 1,872]

Cholo got a night off.  Not too worried about it.

[Neomaxizoomdweebie 3,083]

13 hours ago, Dabura said:

This is an example of what I'm talking about:

Can someone explain why Dennis Cholowski is a healthy scratch? [Wings Nation]

The author acknowledges that sitting a young player can help that player, but the main thrust of the argument is "Cholowski is way better than Ericsson and he needs to be playing every night because that's what's best for his development and the team. Look at these numbers. Cholowski is better than Ericsson. This is outrageous." IMO, it's focusing too hard on the numbers.

E is used to an 82 game schedule. Cholowski isnt. There are multiple reasons to sit a kid. Rest is one of them. I agree with the premise that the season is lost, so use your games to more to develop the kids. But gassing a young player isnt useful either. You have to be smart about it.

[nyqvististhefuture 1,002]

What do you guys think it would take to sign mark stone on July 1? 8.5 x7 enough? 

Just thought of him with these ridiculous contracts given to matthews and soon marner who yes are very good but still haven’t had a 70 pt season or accomplished anything in the playoffs and yet are given ridiculous money that basically screws up teams future caps  ... look at l.a , Chicago and all these great rfa’s this summer that will have crazy money now 

mark stone is a great 2 way guy who’s been hitting the 60-65 pt mark and is a bit older and someone who would be a playoff warrior but im sure some team who can’t convince anyone to go like Columbus/N.Y. I will give 9.5 per 

[kipwinger 8,772]

Mark Stone is a really great player, and is going to get PAID.  I'm guessing in the 8.5 to 9 million range on a max deal. Which will look really good on the front end, but probably less good on the back end. Not sure where you're getting this "playoff warrior" stuff from, Stone's played 27 playoff games in his career.  Not like Ottawa has been some perennial playoff team or anything. 

I'd honestly target Duchene this offseason and Trouba next in UFA. 

[nyqvististhefuture 1,002]

14 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

Mark Stone is a really great player, and is going to get PAID.  I'm guessing in the 8.5 to 9 million range on a max deal. Which will look really good on the front end, but probably less good on the back end. Not sure where you're getting this "playoff warrior" stuff from, Stone's played 27 playoff games in his career.  Not like Ottawa has been some perennial playoff team or anything. 

I'd honestly target Duchene this offseason and Trouba next in UFA. 

I’m saying he’s the exact type of player that would be a playoff warrior , guy who gets down and dirty and get s*** done not the vanek type who skate by and do f all 

duchene is the last guy I’d f***en want ,he’s not a winner and hasn’t put up numbers to brag about , first time he’s getting a pt a game in god knows how long happens to be in his contract year with a team no one cares about ... 28 yrs old x7 brings him to 35 ... hard pass 

trouba would be a nice add but again all depends on the price if he comes here asking for 8-9 he can take a hike 

[krsmith17 7,191]

As much as I'd love to acquire Stone, I agree that he will likely cost way too much. North of $8.5M, no thanks. I also agree that Duchene will command a big contract, and the fact that he's having a career year, in a contract year, at the age of 28, no thanks.

The only high profile player I would target in free agency over the next couple years is Trouba.

49 minutes ago, nyqvististhefuture said:

trouba would be a nice add but again all depends on the price if he comes here asking for 8-9 he can take a hike 

8-9 what? Million? per season? He's not going to ask anything close to that. He won't expect to be the highest paid defenseman in the NHL... I doubt he'd ask much more than he's currently making in Winnipeg to come home and play for his childhood team. If he makes it to free agency, I can see him signing in Detroit in the $6-6.5M range, long term.

[kipwinger 8,772]

1 hour ago, nyqvististhefuture said:

I’m saying he’s the exact type of player that would be a playoff warrior , guy who gets down and dirty and get s*** done not the vanek type who skate by and do f all 

duchene is the last guy I’d f***en want ,he’s not a winner and hasn’t put up numbers to brag about , first time he’s getting a pt a game in god knows how long happens to be in his contract year with a team no one cares about ... 28 yrs old x7 brings him to 35 ... hard pass 

trouba would be a nice add but again all depends on the price if he comes here asking for 8-9 he can take a hike 

It's been so long since I paid attention to you that I forgot about your posting methods.  BOTH Duchene and Stone play for the same team "nobody cares about".  Both are having career seasons in their contract years.  Both have never won anything.  But in your eyes one is a "warrior" and the other is "not a winner".  

You don't need to agree about Duchene, I honestly don't care.  But your rationale for feeling the way you do about each player is pretty obtuse. Given that this is the internet, I assume that being obtuse is the point though.

[nyqvististhefuture 1,002]

44 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

As much as I'd love to acquire Stone, I agree that he will likely cost way too much. North of $8.5M, no thanks. I also agree that Duchene will command a big contract, and the fact that he's having a career year, in a contract year, at the age of 28, no thanks.

The only high profile player I would target in free agency over the next couple years is Trouba.

8-9 what? Million? per season? He's not going to ask anything close to that. He won't expect to be the highest paid defenseman in the NHL... I doubt he'd ask much more than he's currently making in Winnipeg to come home and play for his childhood team. If he makes it to free agency, I can see him signing in Detroit in the $6-6.5M range, long term.

Well he’s getting what 5.5 now? Players always want more than what they’re currently getting so gotta figure he’s gonna start 7+ ... right handed dman as well right ?  

Highest paid dman is doughty I think .... and the rationale with these guys are the caps going up So my 5.5 3 ya ago is 7.5 etc.... 

anyways with trouba ya I’d go the numbers you gave him and that’s it but I don’t know about 7 ya for a guy who’s around 30 pts yearly but I guess if cap keeps going up it can be tolerable down the line

what about karlsson? I mean if Alfie talked us up how can we possibly say no to a dman who can put up 70-85 pts yearly , he struggled a bit in sj cause burns was the guy there , new team etc... but if he comes to Detroit he’s the guy instantly , would also make mike green expendable and a nice return for us if we ship him

[nyqvististhefuture 1,002]

20 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

It's been so long since I paid attention to you that I forgot about your posting methods.  BOTH Duchene and Stone play for the same team "nobody cares about".  Both are having career seasons in their contract years.  Both have never won anything.  But in your eyes one is a "warrior" and the other is "not a winner".  

You don't need to agree about Duchene, I honestly don't care.  But your rationale for feeling the way you do about each player is pretty obtuse. Given that this is the internet, I assume that being obtuse is the point though.

Duchene has literally floated through out his career ,he just doesn’t give a crap now your entitled to like duchene even though your being “obtuse” and given no reason for why you like the player but I’ll pass on his services. 

He’d fit in nice in Winnipeg cause they got so many good pieces he wouldn’t have to be counted on as much. 

 

[kipwinger 8,772]

2 hours ago, nyqvististhefuture said:

Duchene has literally floated through out his career ,he just doesn’t give a crap now your entitled to like duchene even though your being “obtuse” and given no reason for why you like the player but I’ll pass on his services. 

He’d fit in nice in Winnipeg cause they got so many good pieces he wouldn’t have to be counted on as much. 

 

First, it's "you're", not "your".  For example, "You're more likely to be taken seriously when you spend a few seconds making sure you've chosen your words correctly". 

Ok, here goes.  Why do I want Matt Duchene?  1) He's one of the fastest skaters in the NHL, which fits our team identity.  2) He's really good in the face-off circle. 3.  He plays center primarily, but has produced well on the wing so he provides versatility if Veleno becomes a stud and we draft another high quality center this year.  4. Despite being on teams with extremely defensive systems, he's shown he can produce 2nd line center numbers.  5. His production history means he likely won't cost as much as a top center (which he wouldn't be on our team).  6.  He produces well on the powerplay.

Or, ya know, he's a floater who doesn't care.

Edited February 6, 2019 by kipwinger

[krsmith17 7,191]

32 minutes ago, nyqvististhefuture said:

Well he’s getting what 5.5 now? Players always want more than what they’re currently getting so gotta figure he’s gonna start 7+ ... right handed dman as well right ?  

Highest paid dman is doughty I think .... and the rationale with these guys are the caps going up So my 5.5 3 ya ago is 7.5 etc.... 

anyways with trouba ya I’d go the numbers you gave him and that’s it but I don’t know about 7 ya for a guy who’s around 30 pts yearly but I guess if cap keeps going up it can be tolerable down the line

what about karlsson? I mean if Alfie talked us up how can we possibly say no to a dman who can put up 70-85 pts yearly , he struggled a bit in sj cause burns was the guy there , new team etc... but if he comes to Detroit he’s the guy instantly , would also make mike green expendable and a nice return for us if we ship him

Sure, players always "want more", but they won't always "get more"...

Subban is the highest paid defenseman at $9M. Doughty is the 10th highest paid defenseman at $7M. Taking a "discount" of $6-6.5M would still put him in the top 20 highest paid defensemen in the league. I can't see him asking or getting any more than that. You mentioned Doughty and Karlsson who make $7M and $6.5M respectively. Do you really think he'll ask for more than either of them? I don't. And no, I personally don't have much interest in Karlsson. He'll soon be 29 years old, and into his 30's by the time this team is ready to compete. Also consider that he will command top dollar, likely as much or more than Subban is making, no thanks...

[nyqvististhefuture 1,002]

35 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

First, it's "you're", not "your".  For example, "You're more likely to be taken seriously when you spent a few seconds making sure you've chosen your words correctly". 

Ok, here goes.  Why do I want Matt Duchene?  1) He's one of the fastest skaters in the NHL, which fits our team identity.  2) He's really good in the face-off circle. 3.  He plays center primarily, but has produced well on the wing so he provides versatility if Veleno becomes a stud and we draft another high quality center this year.  4. Despite being on teams with extremely defensive systems, he's shown he can produce 2nd line center numbers.  5. His production history means he likely won't cost as much as a top center (which he wouldn't be on our team).  6.  He produces well on the powerplay.

Or, ya know, he's a floater who doesn't care.

Your like the last person I’m worried about being taken seriously 

 

what teams with extremely defensive systems are you talking about ? I don’t recall Colorado avalanche being some great nhl defensive team ... you just said if he’s producing second line center numbers and he’s gonna want around 9 mill per , just because someone’s a center and available shouldn’t mean we have to target them especially in a cap era 

and yes he is a floater and doesn’t care despite all the mediocre reasons you think justify giving a guy 8.5-9 mill per to be a 2nd line center , he’s scored over 25 goals once the last 7 years but hey if that’s what you want go for it , I’d rather pass on a guy who just conveniently shows up when it’s a contract year, there’s a reason Colorado got rid of him 

[nyqvististhefuture 1,002]

19 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

Sure, players always "want more", but they won't always "get more"...

Subban is the highest paid defenseman at $9M. Doughty is the 10th highest paid defenseman at $7M. Taking a "discount" of $6-6.5M would still put him in the top 20 highest paid defensemen in the league. I can't see him asking or getting any more than that. You mentioned Doughty and Karlsson who make $7M and $6.5M respectively. Do you really think he'll ask for more than either of them? I don't. And no, I personally don't have much interest in Karlsson. He'll soon be 29 years old, and into his 30's by the time this team is ready to compete. Also consider that he will command top dollar, likely as much or more than Subban is making, no thanks...

https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/kings

 

doughty is making 11 per as of next 

Well I hope your right with trouba , don’t think he’ll get 8+ but I can see some idiot offering 7-7.5  but I hope he comes to Detroit 

well if karlsson signs in Detroit it’ll change the team completely and make us playoff contenders right away (not what we want i know) but maybe it intices stone to join his buddy or other guys ...I’d be down for a scenario like that maybe but we would 100% have to get rid of deadweight 

 

anyways I watching leafs lunch and they mentioned something now with long injury players changing? We’re gonna have to leave space to then add mule and hank and then the cap goes back down and we get salary relief but by then it’ll be too late to sign guys? Don’t know if anyone’s heard about it... like if have 77 million after those moves when the season starts our cap is locked to 77 mill and we can’t go up higher 

[The 91 of Ryans 3,019]

43 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

First, it's "you're", not "your".  For example, "You're more likely to be taken seriously when you spent a few seconds making sure you've chosen your words correctly". 

Ok, here goes.  Why do I want Matt Duchene?  1) He's one of the fastest skaters in the NHL, which fits our team identity.  2) He's really good in the face-off circle. 3.  He plays center primarily, but has produced well on the wing so he provides versatility if Veleno becomes a stud and we draft another high quality center this year.  4. Despite being on teams with extremely defensive systems, he's shown he can produce 2nd line center numbers.  5. His production history means he likely won't cost as much as a top center (which he wouldn't be on our team).  6.  He produces well on the powerplay.

Or, ya know, he's a floater who doesn't care.

Dude!! May as well go all the way.........

58 minutes ago, nyqvististhefuture said:

Duchene has floated throughout his career; he just doesn’t give a crap now.  You're entitled to like Duchene, even though you're being “obtuse” and have given no reason for why you like the player. I’ll pass on his services. 

He’d fit in nicely in Winnipeg because they have so many good pieces that he wouldn’t be counted on as much. 

 

editor's note: I have removed the word "literally" from your post. Duchene has not "literally" floated. That would make him some sort of superhero. Or at the very least, maybe a sailor. Either way, he would have no use for skates. 

[kipwinger 8,772]

9 minutes ago, nyqvististhefuture said:

Your like the last person I’m worried about being taken seriously 

 

what teams with extremely defensive systems are you talking about ? I don’t recall Colorado avalanche being some great nhl defensive team ... you just said if he’s producing second line center numbers and he’s gonna want around 9 mill per , just because someone’s a center and available shouldn’t mean we have to target them especially in a cap era 

and yes he is a floater and doesn’t care despite all the mediocre reasons you think justify giving a guy 8.5-9 mill per to be a 2nd line center , he’s scored over 25 goals once the last 7 years but hey if that’s what you want go for it , I’d rather pass on a guy who just conveniently shows up when it’s a contract year, there’s a reason Colorado got rid of him 

YOU'RE kidding right?

1) Pretty sure I said I didn't think he'd cost much money.  DEFINITELY didn't say we should give him 8-9 million dollars.  You just made that up. 

2) I said the teams he played for (Colorado and Ottawa) had defensive systems, not that they were good defensively.  You just made that up too. 

3) He's scored over 25 goals twice in the last 7 years (what an arbitrary number you picked!), last year and in 2015-16.  So you made that up too.

Are you trying to be this bad at posting things online, or are you just sorta effortlessly terrible?  Are you the Jack Hughes of making up stupid crap on LGW?

3 minutes ago, The 91 of Ryans said:

Dude!! May as well go all the way.........

editor's note: I have removed the word "literally" from your post. Duchene has not "literally" floated. That would make him some sort of superhero. Or at the very least, maybe a sailor. Either way, he would have no use for skates. 

Lol. I almost did.  I was so close.  Ultimately I decided to stick with just the one correction considering he got the same one wrong over and over and over. 

Let this be a lesson to all the kids out there, when you don't pay attention in school and eat too many Doritos your brain may turn to mush. 

[The 91 of Ryans 3,019]

4 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

Lol. I almost did.  I was so close.  Ultimately I decided to stick with just the one correction considering he got the same one wrong over and over and over. 

Let this be a lesson to all the kids out there, when you don't pay attention in school and eat too many Doritos your brain may turn to mush. 

I mean in fairness it is a message board. I love making up words, dropping my "r"s, talking like LOLCats, etc. 

sometimes i do whole sentences without capitalizing words. 

But I drawn the line at the ubiquitous and rage-inducing misuse of the word "literally". Like a m*****f*****.

[Neomaxizoomdweebie 3,083]

2 hours ago, kipwinger said:

First, it's "you're", not "your".  For example, "You're more likely to be taken seriously when you spent a few seconds making sure you've chosen your words correctly". 

I gave up on this one a long time ago. It's so commonplace nowadays that I suspect the rules of grammar will be changed to make it acceptable. Cuz you know, it's just easier to change our language than it is to teach kids how to properly use it.

[nyqvististhefuture 1,002]

2 hours ago, kipwinger said:

YOU'RE kidding right?

1) Pretty sure I said I didn't think he'd cost much money.  DEFINITELY didn't say we should give him 8-9 million dollars.  You just made that up. 

2) I said the teams he played for (Colorado and Ottawa) had defensive systems, not that they were good defensively.  You just made that up too. 

3) He's scored over 25 goals twice in the last 7 years (what an arbitrary number you picked!), last year and in 2015-16.  So you made that up too.

Are you trying to be this bad at posting things online, or are you just sorta effortlessly terrible?  Are you the Jack Hughes of making up stupid crap on LGW?

Lol. I almost did.  I was so close.  Ultimately I decided to stick with just the one correction considering he got the same one wrong over and over and over. 

Let this be a lesson to all the kids out there, when you don't pay attention in school and eat too many Doritos your brain may turn to mush. 

Wow I’m getting attacked by the grammar police , after being beat up constantly in school it must feel good to go online and act like the cool kids for once hey .... good on ya guys 

 

I didn’t make up the fact that duchene wants 8-9 per but again I couldn’t give two s***s what you think you’ll see July 1 .... your right I read quickly prior and thought you said he scored despite being in defensive teams , same with your 3rd part didn’t notice he scored his huge 4 goals in 14 with avs prior to his trade , doesn’t change the facts he’s not worth the money he wants just to get 60 pts a season if were lucky for a second line center 

Anyways I’m done with this Matt duchene nonsense 

 

Edited February 6, 2019 by nyqvististhefuture

[Neomaxizoomdweebie 3,083]

I wouldn't be looking to sign any outside UFAs this summer. We'll have a young core coming off ELCs and needing raises in a few years, and tying up large sums of salary/cap space for players that are past their prime and no longer worth their cap hit is just bad management IMO.

[Jonas Mahonas 1,872]

1 hour ago, Neomaxizoomdweebie said:

I wouldn't be looking to sign any outside UFAs this summer. We'll have a young core coming off ELCs and needing raises in a few years, and tying up large sums of salary/cap space for players that are past their prime and no longer worth their cap hit is just bad management IMO.

AA is due for a huge raise soon with his numbers going up and up.