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kipwinger

Outside the Box Moves to Accelerate the Rebuild

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I was reading an article by Max Bultman of The Athletic about how Detroit can accelerate it's rebuild.  Most of it was boiler plate "get lucky at the draft" or "hope player X turns about better than anticipated" kind of stuff.  But two of his premises were pretty fun to think about. A) Trade for undervalued players, or B) Hockey Trades.   He mentioned Honka or Pujujarvi as examples of the first category, and Trouba and Faulk as examples of the second. So, I challenge LGW to think of examples of either or both that haven't already been mentioned.  Outside the box type s***.  And then propose a realistic trade package.

I'll start...

To Detroit: Josh Ho Sang

To NYI: Evgeny Svechnikov

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We don't really need "outside the box" moves. What we need is to go back to a time when we had the right people in positions to succeed. The organization has been getting fleeced for 20 years from scouts, to coaches, to management. What was once an organizational dominance is now spread out over the whole league (some would call this utopia).

What this franchise needs is to restock every shelf in the cabinet (scouts, builders, coaches, managers, front office, etc), not just the top shelf (the players). It won't happen over night, but relying on luck is a poor investment strategy. That's like buying lottery tickets to gain wealth.

I don't think "swinging for the fences" is necessary. It's too risky and could do more harm than good. For right now, I would stand pat and continue to acquire draft picks and stock up on kids. In a few years, we should know what areas are lacking, and then that would be the time to make "hockey trades" (F for D, for example).

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1 hour ago, kipwinger said:

I was reading an article by Max Bultman of The Athletic about how Detroit can accelerate it's rebuild.  Most of it was boiler plate "get lucky at the draft" or "hope player X turns about better than anticipated" kind of stuff.  But two of his premises were pretty fun to think about. A) Trade for undervalued players, or B) Hockey Trades.   He mentioned Honka or Pujujarvi as examples of the first category, and Trouba and Faulk as examples of the second. So, I challenge LGW to think of examples of either or both that haven't already been mentioned.  Outside the box type s***.  And then propose a realistic trade package.

I'll start...

To Detroit: Josh Ho Sang

To NYI: Evgeny Svechnikov

I'd say I'm at the point where I only care about our core players now (Larkin, Green, Nyquist, Cholowski, Howard) I don't even care about most prospects anymore besides Zadina, Bertuzzi, Rasmussen, Berggren, and McIssac.

I'd package Mantha, Athanasiou, Svechnikov, Hronek for something big if I could.

This will be heresy, but just off the top of my head I kinda like Brendan Lemieux...

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The thing that really frustrates me is that Holland is lining up draft picks in big numbers, but is failing to pull off the 2nd part of the process to rebuild at a faster pace.  He has to learn how to trade multiple lower round picks ( + players where necessary) to get a higher pick.  For example,  let's say he trades Nyquist to Nashville for their. First.  Hey great.  That's a good asset he has gained.  But it's not necessarily a future impact NHLer, due to that pick falling outside the top 10 with Nashvilles higher standings finish.  Holland needs to be able to THEN package Nashville's 1st (29) and our 2nd (32) with Dekeyser to get Buffalo's 1st from St. Louis (8).  Then we get 2 players that can make immediate impacts instead of 1.  Top 10 picks play in the NHL within a year.  We need as many of them as we can get.

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44 minutes ago, Jonas Mahonas said:

The thing that really frustrates me is that Holland is lining up draft picks in big numbers, but is failing to pull off the 2nd part of the process to rebuild at a faster pace.  He has to learn how to trade multiple lower round picks ( + players where necessary) to get a higher pick.  For example,  let's say he trades Nyquist to Nashville for their. First.  Hey great.  That's a good asset he has gained.  But it's not necessarily a future impact NHLer, due to that pick falling outside the top 10 with Nashvilles higher standings finish.  Holland needs to be able to THEN package Nashville's 1st (29) and our 2nd (32) with Dekeyser to get Buffalo's 1st from St. Louis (8).  Then we get 2 players that can make immediate impacts instead of 1.  Top 10 picks play in the NHL within a year.  We need as many of them as we can get.

Except if Buffalo is doing the same thing, they wouldn't make that trade.

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51 minutes ago, Jonas Mahonas said:

The thing that really frustrates me is that Holland is lining up draft picks in big numbers, but is failing to pull off the 2nd part of the process to rebuild at a faster pace.  He has to learn how to trade multiple lower round picks ( + players where necessary) to get a higher pick.  For example,  let's say he trades Nyquist to Nashville for their. First.  Hey great.  That's a good asset he has gained.  But it's not necessarily a future impact NHLer, due to that pick falling outside the top 10 with Nashvilles higher standings finish.  Holland needs to be able to THEN package Nashville's 1st (29) and our 2nd (32) with Dekeyser to get Buffalo's 1st from St. Louis (8).  Then we get 2 players that can make immediate impacts instead of 1.  Top 10 picks play in the NHL within a year.  We need as many of them as we can get.

I don't think you're wrong here, but I also think that's something you can't do too often either.  Like, if you look at last year's draft the Islanders did something like that, and admittedly had an amazing draft and laid a firm foundation for their rebuild with Dobson and Wahlstrom.  But I don't think they ended up with anything better than what we got by standing pat and drafting 4 times in the top two rounds.  I mean, we got McIsaac who was projected as a first rounder for the entire year before the draft.  I guess what I'm saying is that it's a draft by draft thing.  In years which are loaded with talent, like the 2019 draft is supposed to be, I think I'd hang on to my picks because the difference between the 15th and 35th players drafted might be pretty small. 

However, since the premise of the thread is ways to accelerate the rebuild I'd add that if there's someone in the top 10 or 15 that you think people are sleeping on, or that you think is definitely going to play above their draft position, then you should definitely do it.  I'm just wary of moving 2nd rounders because you can still get a lot of talent in round 2.  

Edited by kipwinger

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3 hours ago, kipwinger said:

I don't think you're wrong here, but I also think that's something you can't do too often either.  Like, if you look at last year's draft the Islanders did something like that, and admittedly had an amazing draft and laid a firm foundation for their rebuild with Dobson and Wahlstrom.  But I don't think they ended up with anything better than what we got by standing pat and drafting 4 times in the top two rounds.  I mean, we got McIsaac who was projected as a first rounder for the entire year before the draft.  I guess what I'm saying is that it's a draft by draft thing.  In years which are loaded with talent, like the 2019 draft is supposed to be, I think I'd hang on to my picks because the difference between the 15th and 35th players drafted might be pretty small. 

However, since the premise of the thread is ways to accelerate the rebuild I'd add that if there's someone in the top 10 or 15 that you think people are sleeping on, or that you think is definitely going to play above their draft position, then you should definitely do it.  I'm just wary of moving 2nd rounders because you can still get a lot of talent in round 2.  

Great point, and remember that our 2nd rounder now has a lot more value because its pick #32 or 33 instead of the 57th or 58 that we are used to.  I guess the overall point I'm trying to illustrate is that picks 1 through 10 historically have an almost 100% chance of NHL time in a short time.  These guys aren't projects that we are waiting 3 years to develop.  IMO, our forward group looks decent right now.  We need 2-3 GREAT players, but we are only 2 drafts off from having a solid 12 forwards if Holland can pull Hughes and 2 good right handed wingers in 2019 and 2020.  

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Looking at TSN's top 15 trade bait, local product Alec Martinez is on there. With the turmoil in LA, would he be someone you'd acquire to bolster the D and help speed up the young D? It'd have to be a "Hockey Trade" because he is at $4M per for the next three seasons, so we'd have to dump some salary in exchange.

image.png.44f098afa97278df855af41396e0bb94.png

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1 hour ago, LeftWinger said:

Looking at TSN's top 15 trade bait, local product Alec Martinez is on there. With the turmoil in LA, would he be someone you'd acquire to bolster the D and help speed up the young D? It'd have to be a "Hockey Trade" because he is at $4M per for the next three seasons, so we'd have to dump some salary in exchange.

image.png.44f098afa97278df855af41396e0bb94.png

The Wings should have cap space for Martinez. If not they'd be close

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6 hours ago, LeftWinger said:

Looking at TSN's top 15 trade bait, local product Alec Martinez is on there. With the turmoil in LA, would he be someone you'd acquire to bolster the D and help speed up the young D? It'd have to be a "Hockey Trade" because he is at $4M per for the next three seasons, so we'd have to dump some salary in exchange.

image.png.44f098afa97278df855af41396e0bb94.png

Meh. We have too many 2nd pair D already. Would rather have Pesce off that list, RH, although I don't know why the Canes would trade him when they just signed him to that contract. Want #15.

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16 hours ago, LeftWinger said:

Looking at TSN's top 15 trade bait, local product Alec Martinez is on there. With the turmoil in LA, would he be someone you'd acquire to bolster the D and help speed up the young D? It'd have to be a "Hockey Trade" because he is at $4M per for the next three seasons, so we'd have to dump some salary in exchange.

Hell No! Why would we trade for a 31 year old 2nd pair defenseman? We're rebuilding. With Green, Daley, Ericsson, Kronwall, DeKeyser and Jensen on the team, why add another veteran? Just because he's from Michigan? We need to be shipping out guys like Martinez to acquire draft picks, not the other way around.

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Honestly, I don't think we're in a position to acquire the kind of player who could really help accelerate the rebuild. We don't have the assets.

Honka is nice, I've been talking about him for years now. But, at this point, I doubt he moves the needle all that much. Puljujarvi has been underwhelming and I'm not convinced it's a "He just needs a change of scenery" situation. Could just be slow to blossom (how old was Franzen when he became The Mule?), but even if that's the case, the point stands: Is this the kind of player you target if you're looking to make a bold move that you feel will accelerate the rebuild in a meaningful way? Ho-Sang is a dingus. Trouba makes some sense, in theory, but I fear the price tag would probably make it a wash. Also, Trouba has a say in the matter; he can re-sign with the powerhouse Jets or risk being traded to a bottom-basement team.

I like Dante Fabbro...? *shrug*
Maybe you kick the tires on every single 2019 RFA...? *shrug*

I don't want to be a nitpicky killjoy, cuz I love these kinds of exercises. I'm #TeamBlueAdams; I r0sterb8 on the daily. I just don't think we have the assets. In today's NHL, you don't get something really desirable without giving up a pound or two (or twelve) of flesh -- and we're rail-thin as it is, so we barely have anything to work with at the moment. We need a big haul in the upcoming draft, *then* maybe we can go hunting for big game. If our first pick is in the top three, I think that might light the fuse on the acceleration plan.

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Took me a while to come up with sumthin (I'm a bit slow eh?)...

Now - if the respective players were to waive their NTC - how about we take Marleau off the Leafs hands (that way they'd free up extra $$$ for their RFA's), AND their 1st round pick in either 2019, or 2020 for someone like Nyquist, Glendenning, Abdelkader, Nielsen, etc, BUT we also take on most of their $$$ of the contract of the Red Wing/s going to Toronto.

That way the Leafs unload Marleau, and possibly get a player in return along with more cap space relief...The way I see it - the more cap space relief they get - the more draft picks (or prospects) we get...This could take place anytime from now until the 2019 draft weekend...I figure we could land a 1st round pick, and possibly a combo of a few 2nd, or 3rd round picks.

 

Another would be (if we're lucky if he stays healthy) is to move Howard, and eat his salary thus increasing our chances of getting a 1st round pick in return.

 

 

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1) Tank and get the #1.

2) Trade Nyquist to Nashville for their 1st.

3) Trade Howard to Pittsburgh for their 1st.

4) Trade Ericsson and Nielsen (retain 3/4 salary) to Toronto for their 1st and 2nd.

5) Trade Green to Tampa for their 1st.

 

Picks 1, 26, 27, 29, 30, 32.

Epic.

Edited by Jonas Mahonas

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1 hour ago, Dabura said:

I like Dante Fabbro...? *shrug*

Yeah, Fabbro is still a player I'd like to target. The Preds are stacked on D, and would likely give him up for an upgrade up front. Maybe Nyquist and the Islanders 2019 2nd round pick for Fabbro and the Panthers 3rd round pick...

1 hour ago, Dabura said:

I might trade Mantha for Klefbom, straight up. But I don't think Chiarelli would go for it.

I'd be open to trading Mantha for an upgrade on the back end, but not for Klefbom. He's a solid defenseman, I just don't see him moving the needle all that much. But man, Mantha would score 40 in his sleep on McDavid's wing...

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1 hour ago, Dabura said:

Honestly, I don't think we're in a position to acquire the kind of player who could really help accelerate the rebuild. We don't have the assets.

Honka is nice, I've been talking about him for years now. But, at this point, I doubt he moves the needle all that much. Puljujarvi has been underwhelming and I'm not convinced it's a "He just needs a change of scenery" situation. Could just be slow to blossom (how old was Franzen when he became The Mule?), but even if that's the case, the point stands: Is this the kind of player you target if you're looking to make a bold move that you feel will accelerate the rebuild in a meaningful way? Ho-Sang is a dingus. Trouba makes some sense, in theory, but I fear the price tag would probably make it a wash. Also, Trouba has a say in the matter; he can re-sign with the powerhouse Jets or risk being traded to a bottom-basement team.

I like Dante Fabbro...? *shrug*
Maybe you kick the tires on every single 2019 RFA...? *shrug*

I don't want to be a nitpicky killjoy, cuz I love these kinds of exercises. I'm #TeamBlueAdams; I r0sterb8 on the daily. I just don't think we have the assets. In today's NHL, you don't get something really desirable without giving up a pound or two (or twelve) of flesh -- and we're rail-thin as it is, so we barely have anything to work with at the moment. We need a big haul in the upcoming draft, *then* maybe we can go hunting for big game. If our first pick is in the top three, I think that might light the fuse on the acceleration plan.

Well there's two ways of thinking about it.  Hitting on your lottery pick is necessary for a rebuild, every rebuild pretty much has to start with that.  So that's standard.  When I say "accelerate" I mean, what can be done in addition to that.  If you get incrementally better across the board AND you hit on your lottery picks then your rebuild should, in theory, move along more quickly. It's those moves that can be made on the margins that can speed things up. 

Now, Ho Sang.  Kid's a dingus?  Maybe.  But there's a lot of very legit concerns about how he's been handled.  He's been a productive player at the NHL level and he was buried on his AHL team's 3rd line?  C'mon?  Since he spoke up about it he was put on his AHL team's top line and has like 8 points in 3 games or something?  So it's not like the kid can't play.  And it's not like the Islanders haven't been absurdly mismanaged forever.  And it's not like black hockey players get accused of being selfish or having an attitude ALL THE TIME.  And its not like Lou Lamorello isn't an epically authoritarian f***-head who has buried guys before just to show that he's the boss.  Point is, maybe he's an dingus and maybe he isn't.  But he can play, and his value is at an all time low.  Why not take a flier on him?

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46 minutes ago, Jonas Mahonas said:

1) Tank and get the #1.

2) Trade Nyquist to Nashville for their 1st.

3) Trade Howard to Pittsburgh for their 1st.

4) Trade Ericsson and Nielsen (retain 3/4 salary) to Toronto for their 1st and 2nd.

5) Trade Green to Tampa for their 1st.

Picks 1, 26, 27, 29, 30, 32.

Epic.

The most salary you can retain is 50%. Everything else is obviously accurate though... :lol:

1) Finish bottom 5, while being somewhat competitive (lose 27 one-goal games...) and win the Hughes lottery.

2) Trade Nyquist to Nashville for Dante Fabbro.

3) Trade Howard (retain salary) to whichever team suffers a significant goaltender injury after Christmas for a 2nd round pick.

4) Trade Daley or Ericsson (retain salary) to whoever will take them for a mid (3rd or 4th) round draft pick.

5) Trade Vanek (if he will waive his NTC) to a contending team for a 3rd round pick.

 

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1 hour ago, kipwinger said:

Well there's two ways of thinking about it.  Hitting on your lottery pick is necessary for a rebuild, every rebuild pretty much has to start with that.  So that's standard.  When I say "accelerate" I mean, what can be done in addition to that.  If you get incrementally better across the board AND you hit on your lottery picks then your rebuild should, in theory, move along more quickly. It's those moves that can be made on the margins that can speed things up.

Ah, ok. If we're just talking minor moves, there's no shortage of options.

1 hour ago, kipwinger said:

Now, Ho Sang.  Kid's a dingus?  Maybe.  But there's a lot of very legit concerns about how he's been handled.  He's been a productive player at the NHL level and he was buried on his AHL team's 3rd line?  C'mon?  Since he spoke up about it he was put on his AHL team's top line and has like 8 points in 3 games or something?  So it's not like the kid can't play.  And it's not like the Islanders haven't been absurdly mismanaged forever.  And it's not like black hockey players get accused of being selfish or having an attitude ALL THE TIME.  And its not like Lou Lamorello isn't an epically authoritarian f***-head who has buried guys before just to show that he's the boss.  Point is, maybe he's an dingus and maybe he isn't.  But he can play, and his value is at an all time low.  Why not take a flier on him?

The Wings are on a big "character" kick and I reckon Ho-Sang wouldn't fit the profile. If it were my call to make, would I take a flier on him? Maybe, maybe not. I'd remind myself that Dan Cleary had pretty much run himself out of the league when we picked him up and he ended up being a great story, so even if Ho-Sang does have "issues," it doesn't mean there isn't hope for him.

But I don't really care either way, tbh. Kick the tires, don't kick the tires -- it doesn't matter much. We need a couple players who are at least as good as Larkin before we can even think about chasing Cups, so I've kinda resigned myself to the draft being the only thing that matters for us right now. If there are some moves that can be made on the margins that we think can help move us along, we should look into them...but I'm ok with just sitting on our assets for at least another year and waiting for the 2019 draft.

EDIT: Oof. When did I become such a stuffy old buzzkill?

*thinks*

Oh, right, Saturday night. :lol:

Edited by Dabura

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1 hour ago, krsmith17 said:

The most salary you can retain is 50%. Everything else is obviously accurate though... :lol:

1) Finish bottom 5, while being somewhat competitive (lose 27 one-goal games...) and win the Hughes lottery.

2) Trade Nyquist to Nashville for Dante Fabbro.

3) Trade Howard (retain salary) to whichever team suffers a significant goaltender injury after Christmas for a 2nd round pick.

4) Trade Daley or Ericsson (retain salary) to whoever will take them for a mid (3rd or 4th) round draft pick.

5) Trade Vanek (if he will waive his NTC) to a contending team for a 3rd round pick.

 

I love your plan and agree that it would be completely normal for a GM to be trying to make all this happen.  Then I remember that its Ken Holland.  And does Ken Holland like his team?  Yes he does.  So is Ken Holland going to pull off any of the reasonable moves KRSmith suggested?  No he isnt.

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1 hour ago, Jonas Mahonas said:

I love your plan and agree that it would be completely normal for a GM to be trying to make all this happen.  Then I remember that its Ken Holland.  And does Ken Holland like his team?  Yes he does.  So is Ken Holland going to pull off any of the reasonable moves KRSmith suggested?  No he isnt.

Cuz Holland hasn't made any trades the last two deadlines. 

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2 minutes ago, The 91 of Ryans said:

Cuz Holland hasn't made any trades the last two deadlines. 

Jurco for a 3rd, Smith for a 2nd and a 3rd, Vanek for a 3rd, Ott for a 6th, Sheahan for a 3rd, Mrazek for a 3rd, Tatar for a 1st, 2nd and 3rd...

I'm pretty sure that was someone else within the organization that pulled those trades though. It couldn't have been Holland. Holland is an idiot. Maybe Draper?

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