2021 Draft

[krsmith17 7,191]

14 hours ago, BarkBurgerman said:

Again, I like your made up tier system. Excited to learn the rules about it.

1 minute ago, BarkBurgerman said:

Still not sure why you're bending over backwards to justify/explain your new tier system to me.

...

2 minutes ago, BarkBurgerman said:

My question was if Cossa is the BPA at 22 and we already have Walstedt, do you take him? But apparently BPA has reached obsolescence with you cause "muh tiers". That's fine. My question doesn't really change: If Cossa is the highest tiered player at 22 and we already have Walstedt, do you take him? Pretty easy hypothetical to understand.

It's a dumb hypothetical question. No I wouldn't take Cossa, if we had already taken Wallstedt. No one would. If it were back to back centers or defensemen? Sure. Goaltenders? No.

4 minutes ago, BarkBurgerman said:

What did you expect them to say?

Exactly.

[krsmith17 7,191]

14 minutes ago, BarkBurgerman said:

Just wanted to know if you'd breach BPA in that scenario. I wouldn't.

What're your tiers for this draft and who's in them?

I don't have tiers... I don't know enough about any draft class to be able to break each player down into different tiers. Let alone this draft class, in which I've stated several times, I know very little about the group overall (less than most years)...

I have players I like, and others not so much. Even that is admittedly based on limited information...

My top choice at 6 right now, is Eklund or Hughes. At 23, I'm hoping a top 10-15 talent falls, like Raty or Lambos. Other than that, there are a ton of other players I'd be okay with in those spots, and even more players I know absolutely nothing about...

[krsmith17 7,191]

9 minutes ago, BarkBurgerman said:

You don't have tiers now? You told me yesterday you have a tiered out list, and Walstedt is in a lower tier then Eklund...

What happened? Dog ate your list?

No, I didn't say "I have a tiered out list". Not at all. I simply said I would have Wallstedt in a tier below Eklund. aka I'd personally prefer Eklund or Hughes over Wallstedt (and a number of other players)...

12 minutes ago, BarkBurgerman said:

How are these tiers structured/determined? Like is it all based on talent? Like are tier1 players in that tier because they all share the same top talent level, then tier2 is slightly less projected talent level? Or does position and other factors also contribute to which tier a player is in?

I don't know how it's all structured / determined... I said I would "assume" most teams break their list down into tiers or groups. It's what would make sense to me. You seem to think they have a numbered list, and stick to next player off the list...

15 minutes ago, BarkBurgerman said:

This is a source of confusion for me. Why can't two goalies be in the same tier? Also, If Walstedt is say in tier1 and Cossa is in tier2 on Yzerman's list... and pick number 22 comes up, but only tier3 players are left except Cossa (tier2)... why does that mean Cossa and Walstedt would have to be in tiers of their own?

Two goalies can be in the same tier. I've never said otherwise...

I also never said the two goalies would have to be in tiers of their own. You're the one that said...

"Yzerman's tier1: Walstedt, Power, Johnson, Eklund.... Cossa. Everyone in tier1 besides Cossa is gone at 22. Boom two goalies."

20 minutes ago, BarkBurgerman said:

This makes better sense. But for the purpose of my hypothetical question Cossa needed to be the clear BPA (or last player left in his higher tier).

Like I said, there are likely exceptions to the rule, taking best player available. You really think a GM would go into a draft with 10 picks and a list of 200 players in a specific order, not stray from that list whatsoever, and walk away with 10 players of the same position (10 goalies), because that's what the list said to do?...

I know you're trying to be a smart ass, but you're once again proving just how dumb you are...

[Neomaxizoomdweebie 3,083]

28 minutes ago, BarkBurgerman said:

This makes better sense. But for the purpose of my hypothetical question Cossa needed to be the clear BPA (or last player left in his higher tier).

He wouldn't be the clear BPA at 22, and SY wouldn't take him. They're prospects, not established players, so any ranking system would be based on skill in lower levels of hockey and their potential at the NHL level. And there wouldn't be a huge difference in "potential" among the players in the 2nd half of the first round.

[krsmith17 7,191]

8 minutes ago, BarkBurgerman said:

Here you go

"list" should have been the word in quotations there. Implying that I don't really have a "list"...

I simply have Eklund and Hughes ahead of Wallstedt. I don't have a list of every player broken down into tiers...

10 minutes ago, BarkBurgerman said:

Here you go

Goalies can be in the same tier. Those two specific goalies are not in the same tier in my opinion. There's a difference.

12 minutes ago, BarkBurgerman said:

Here you go

So you think Yzerman has a "tier" with just Wallstedt and Cossa?

13 minutes ago, BarkBurgerman said:

That's not tiers of their own...

"Tier 1"

*Lists players*

"That's not one tier"...

15 minutes ago, BarkBurgerman said:

I never said anything of the sort.

I also never said half of what you're saying I said, but here we are...

8 minutes ago, BarkBurgerman said:

I don't think you can say that.

Unless you know Yzerman's draft ranking list.

Say it looks something like this:

1. Power
2. Beniers
3. McTavish
4. Edvinsson
5. Eklund
6. Walstedt
7. Johnson
8. Cossa

Then on draft day Yzerman is able to scoop up Walstedt at #6, and when his 22 overall pick roles around his number 8 ranked player - Cossa - is still available! With no one else in his top20 available.

So my question is simply, in a hypothetical scenario like that, would you double down on goalies and take Cossa even when you already have Wally? 

Your dumb hypothetical has already been answered. The answer is no, it would be beyond dumb, terrible asset management (in my opinion) to take two goalies in the top 22 of a draft...

[krsmith17 7,191]

5 minutes ago, BarkBurgerman said:

Right. You only bothered to separate Eklund, Hughes, and Walstedt into tiers. Right.

I didn't separate them into tiers. Like I said, I simply have Eklund and Hughes rated ahead of Wallstedt. 

6 minutes ago, BarkBurgerman said:

You: "In order for Yzerman to take BOTH goalies at 6 and 23, they would have to be sitting alone in tiers by themselves. That most definitely wouldn't be the case."

I'm asking you explain that statement. Cause it makes no sense to me.

Yzerman has Wallstedt in his first "tier" All other players in his first tier are gone at 6, except Wallstedt. He takes Wallstedt. Yzerman has Cossa in his third "tier". All other players in his first three tiers are gone at 22, except Cossa. That most definitely wouldn't be the case. But IF it were, I would suggest he go to the next "tier" to take a skater, since the dropoff from "tier 3" to "tier 4" likely isn't that significant.

12 minutes ago, BarkBurgerman said:

I didn't say "that's not one tier" I said "that's not tiers of their own". And it's not.

When I said "tiers by themselves", I meant after players from said tier have already been taken, not that they were designated their own special tier...

14 minutes ago, BarkBurgerman said:

The direct quotes seem to tell a different story.

Miscommunication. I presume purposefully on your end...

[krsmith17 7,191]

4 minutes ago, BarkBurgerman said:

So they wouldn't have to be "sitting alone in tiers by themselves" after all. Cool.

Yes they would. There's no one that would take two goalies in the top 22, if they had someone else ranked equally.

5 minutes ago, BarkBurgerman said:

If that's what you meant... then why did you bawk at them being in "tiers in by themselves"? In the quote you just explained you even said " they would have to be sitting alone in tiers by themselves. That most definitely wouldn't be the case."

I didn't "bawk" at anything. You're just (purposely) misrepresenting what I'm saying. That's what you do.

Anyway, I wouldn't take two goalies in the first round. Yzerman won't take two goalies in the first round. I'm done.

[krsmith17 7,191]

3 minutes ago, BarkBurgerman said:

But that's not the question I asked...

I asked if you already have Wally, and Cossa is the BPA (or only remaining player of a higher tier) at 22, would you take him? I DID NOT ask if you would take him over someone else ranked equally. You following?

I already answered your dumb hypothetical question about 7 times...

[Neomaxizoomdweebie 3,083]

1 hour ago, BarkBurgerman said:

I don't think you can say that.

Unless you know Yzerman's draft ranking list.

Say it looks something like this:

1. Power
2. Beniers
3. McTavish
4. Edvinsson
5. Eklund
6. Walstedt
7. Johnson
8. Cossa

Then on draft day Yzerman is able to scoop up Walstedt at #6, and when his 22 overall pick roles around his number 8 ranked player - Cossa - is still available! With no one else in his top20 available.

So my question is simply, in a hypothetical scenario like that, would you double down on goalies and take Cossa even when you already have Wally? 

The likelihood that every other player is gone, and a player he had in his top 10 is still there, is remote.

1.The lists dont vary greatly from team to team. Top 10 lists may vary in terms of rank on the list, but the players would be pretty consistent from team to team.

2. Sometimes you see a top 10 guy drop into the teens, or a guy projected in the teens fall into the 20's and so on, but I don't think you're going to see somebody available at 23 who is a top 10 pick, regardless if position.

3. Even if the unlikely happened, you don't take Cossa in that situation. You don't draft 2 players that play the same position, of which only 1 starting spots on the roster exists. Doing so, basically means you expect one to fail. Not a good look. And not a vote of confidence in the "Next Lundqvist".

[marcaractac 3,963]

7 minutes ago, BarkBurgerman said:

 I'm simply asking if he's your BPA at 22 and you already have Wally would you take him? There's nothing more complicated to this exercise than that.... unless you wanna discuss tiers with me lol

I'f I am a GM in this situation, I simply trade down with pick #22 to try and add an additional second from someone who may really want the other goalie. If the BPA at 22 is a goalie, and I'm happy with the guy I got at #6, I straight up just try to increase my odds at hitting a gem a little later. 

[The 91 of Ryans 3,019]

Yzerman's a BPA guy. That much is on record. 

So yeah, he'd totally take both goalies if he thought they were the best available at 6 and 22. 

Unless he's lying when he says this

Quote

Yeah. I would say, you try to project every single player in the draft. What do they have a chance to be? If there’s a good prospect there, you take him. You know? You take the best one there when you’re picking. That’s all we’re trying to do. We’re not trying to outsmart the rest of the league.

From this 

https://theathletic.com/950269/2019/04/27/steve-yzerman-qa-on-draft-strategy-analytics-and-a-couple-of-top-prospects-in-detroits-range/

 

 

[Neomaxizoomdweebie 3,083]

31 minutes ago, BarkBurgerman said:

1&2. You're splitting hairs. Rank Cossa wherever you like in the top20, I don't care. I'm simply asking if he's your BPA at 22 and you already have Wally would you take him? There's nothing more complicated to this exercise than that.... unless you wanna discuss tiers with me lol

3. I don't think it's a bad look or a vote of no confidence in Wally. Sure maybe you end up in Vancouver situation where you have both a Luongo and a Corey Schneider on the roster and you end up trading one. I thought that's the point of adhering to BPA. You get the most value you can regardless of position. The underlying question I'm asking here is how much are you willing to stick to BPA versus need? This particular scenario certainly seems to challenge BPA for many of you.

You are attempting to be clever by pitting the philosophy of BPA against the philosophy of not drafting goalies high in the draft. Unfortunately, neither of these philosophies are absolutes and you seem to want to criticize others for not treating them as such.

[Dabura 12,232]

22 hours ago, BarkBurgerman said:

I'm definitely intrigued and stimulated by the idea of running an ULTIMATE BADASS pairing like Lidstrom-Rafalski. Cause why wouldn't you want to?

But I remind myself that Lids and Rafalski were often separated. And Datsyuk and Zberg were often separated. Because it's better to spread the wealth throughout the lineup. If we took Power this year, my guess is he and Seider would end up playing on separate pairings.

I think one of the lowkey benefits of a player like Seider is we can pair him with some cheapy Dman that compliments him and allow our other major assets to play somewhere else in the lineup.

Better to have Niedermayer-Pronger and not need it than to need Niedermayer-Pronger and not have it.

I know what you're saying, though. It's why I think center is a bigger position of need for us. If Seider's the player we think he is, he'll probably excel with anyone. LD1 doesn't necessarily have to be another Seider.

Buuuuut...

22 hours ago, BarkBurgerman said:

I think what Seider needs is the exact opposite of what Erik Karlsson needed (Marc Methot). He needs a wild card offensive Dman with a big shot.

Fully agree. That's exactly why the thought of Hughes-Seider gets my HYPE! juices flowing; Hughes fits that profile to a T.

22 hours ago, BarkBurgerman said:

Kinda like Eric Gelinas. Although unlike Gelinas, a good skater would also be a plus. Yzerman seems super focused on building a mobile defensive core anyway so I'm not so worried about that. Honestly someone in the mold of Oliwer Kaski comes to mind.

Speaking of Dcore mobility. I almost forgot Yzerman is doing that. Large fast Dmen that can cover a lot of ice quickly. Seider (big and mobile), Johansson (fast), Tuomisto (big and mobile), Sebrango (mobile), Viro (fast and aggressively closes gaps), Wallinder (big and mobile).

He's literally only drafting Dmen who can skate well, especially ones who can skate with size. The days of Jon Ericsson, Trevor Daley, and Kyle Quincey are long behind us.

I've been saying it for a while now: Yzerman very clearly "has a type" when it comes to defensemen. That type being big, mobile, smart, steady, efficient, effective. Seider types, basically.

I do wonder about Yzerman's record with drafting defensemen, though.

Edited July 8, 2021 by Dabura

[marcaractac 3,963]

3 minutes ago, BarkBurgerman said:

Aye. I just looked. The best Dman he's ever drafted (not counting Seider) is Radko Gudas? Tony DeAngelo? Definitely not the best. Hajek, Spencer, Maisin, MacLeod, Koekkoek, Blujus... that's a pretty big number of highly drafted flops over the years.

Maybe he's just letting Andersson run the show here. All our big D prospect names are Euros.

But he is not afraid to trade for them either, thankfully. Maybe he'll turn Zadina into another Sergachev at some point. 

[LeftWinger 5,151]

6 hours ago, BarkBurgerman said:

Tier1 posters

CRL
NITF
Mackel
Scott Lucidi
Leftwinger

Tier2 posters

Akakabuto
F Michael
Kipwinger
Dabura
GMR

Tier3 posters

Marcaractac
Zombo
KrSmith
Neo
Mabus

Please keep to your tier tier3

I made the big league! Although I'm right on that cusp...

[LeftWinger 5,151]

I'm officially going on record saying Wallstedt is gone before 6 and Cossa is gone before 22. Forcing Yzerman to acquire Alnefelt and Palat from his old buddy for the low price of a 5th.

[Akakabuto 1,863]

Tier Håkan:
Eklund
Edvinsson
Wallstedt

Tier 2:
Power
Beniers
Johnson
Clarke
Hughes
etc…

These are the official tiers within the organization. 

[Dabura 12,232]

On 7/8/2021 at 2:24 PM, BarkBurgerman said:

Aye. I just looked. The best Dman he's ever drafted (not counting Seider) is Radko Gudas? Tony DeAngelo? Definitely not the best. Hajek, Spencer, Maisin, MacLeod, Koekkoek, Blujus... that's a pretty big number of highly drafted flops over the years.

Maybe he's just letting Andersson run the show here. All our big D prospect names are Euros.

It's always damn near impossible to know how hands-on any given GM is when it comes to scouting and drafting. Which is, of course, by design. (Guarding trade secrets and whatnot.)

Like, Yzerman's messaging has basically been "I defer to my scouts." Which is cool and all. But literally every GM says that.

Picking Seider was metal as f***, and it was even more metal if Yzerman's people didn't want Seider and he had to tell them to get f***ed. (Not sure that that's actually how it went.) But didn't it come out that we had Hughes, Kakko, Dach, and possibly Byram (?) ranked higher than Seider?

...And didn't it come out that Ken "Idiot Boomer Who Had to Go" Holland was fully prepared to take Seider at 8OA (hence Yzerman not trading down)?

...And, if we're being honest...aren't Cozens, Zegras, Knight, Caufield, et al. looking like pretty smart picks for their respective clubs?

What's my point? I dunno. I guess it's that everyone should maybe pump the brakes on Yzerman being a draft wizard. I think his body of work suggests he's a guy who knows what he wants in his players and that he wants his scouts focusing on players who fit the profiles he likes. I think this has produced a number of hits...and a number of misses.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[F.Michael 4,590]

 

[F.Michael 4,590]

My immediate reaction to the Yzerman interview on the  'Red Wings Draft Preview'...Either he's 1 helluva poker player - or we're not gonna take a netminder with the #6 pick...Likely the latter.

Edited July 11, 2021 by F.Michael

[Neomaxizoomdweebie 3,083]

I dont understand why Ken thinks Holland would trade 19 for 22 and a 2nd if he wants Cossa and he knows Yzerman is trading up to pick him.

[F.Michael 4,590]

10 minutes ago, Neomaxizoomdweebie said:

I dont understand why Ken thinks Holland would trade 19 for 22 and a 2nd if he wants Cossa and he knows Yzerman is trading up to pick him.

Jedi mind tricks?

[town123 235]

Is Craig Button for real?

His latest top 75 prospects has Lysell at #30 and Scott Morrow nowhere on the list.   Just thought is was a strange list.

 

 

[Akakabuto 1,863]

6 minutes ago, town123 said:

Is Craig Button for real?

His latest top 75 prospects has Lysell at #30 and Scott Morrow nowhere on the list.   Just thought is was a strange list.

 

 

Doesn't Button usually deviate from other draft analysts?

[town123 235]

Maybe he does.    He went full off-road for this one though...lol