Hockey News Predictons

[Drake_Marcus 890]

Two more words.... SALARY CAP

Really? The Islanders have to work to hit the cap floor. They're not exactly bursting at the seems with star players.

[Drake_Marcus 890]

I think Chicago and St. Louis are going to be better teams because they're more confident and proved a lot last year. St. Louis especially with Kariya back will be far tougher than people are giving them credit for. Their 2nd half last year was solid minus Kariya who might be good for 70-80 points. They've got two guys who can win games for them in goal as well and nothing to lose this year.

And as much as I'm excited about the Wings this year, I think it's foolish to think that we haven't taken a fairly sizable step backwards as it stands now. A lot can change as the season goes on if guys step up and prove themselves, but as of now, there's too many question marks to think that we're going to roll right into first and teams like Chicago and Calgary won't put up a good fight. In my mind, the West has the potential to ice 8 teams for the playoffs that all have just as good of a shot as the others to win the Cup.

And I'm all for the competition. It's going to be a great year.

Step back? Yes.

Sizable step back? No, I don't think so. But we'll see how the season goes soon enough.

[eva unit zero 271]

My predictions:

Top 8 from each conference (division winners in bold):

Wings

Penguins

Bruins

Hawks

Sharks

Capitals

Canucks

Devils

Flames

Blues

Ducks

Canadiens

Flyers

Blue Jackets

Hurricanes

Senators

Playoffs:

Wings vs Blue Jackets

Sharks vs Ducks

Canucks vs Blues

Hawks vs Flames

Penguins vs Senators

Bruins vs Hurricanes

Capitals vs Flyers

Devils vs Canadiens

Wings vs Blues

Hawks vs Sharks

Penguins vs Devils

Bruins vs Capitals

Wings vs Hawks

Capitals vs Devils

Wings vs Devils

2010 Stanley Cup Champion: Detroit Red Wings

Conn Smythe Trophy Winner: Chris Osgood

[Detroit # 1 Fan 2,204]

Eva, did you pick Jersey to face the Wings just so you could say that Ozzie's career postseason numbers, number of cups and head to head against Brodeur was better?

Not saying I wouldnt mind it, because Ozzie deserves it.

NVM, but Philly will go further.

Edited August 24, 2009 by Detroit # 1 Fan

[titanium2 867]

Eva, did you pick Jersey to face the Wings just so you could say that Ozzie's career postseason numbers, number of cups and head to head against Brodeur was better?

Not saying I wouldnt mind it, because Ozzie deserves it.

I would love to get back at Jersey.

In terms of unfinished business I'm really glad the Wings got one of the Anaheim monkeys off their backs. Although, it's still great that Pronger still has a few Red Wings monkeys on his back.

[Dan Bylsma 27]

I would love to get back at Jersey.

In terms of unfinished business I'm really glad the Wings got one of the Anaheim monkeys off their backs. Although, it's still great that Pronger still has a few Red Wings monkeys on his back.

crippling news on nhl.com for Detroit and the hockey world.Pens aim to keep Stanley around !

http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=479969

[Echolalia 2,961]

In terms of points:

Detroit

San Jose

Blackhawks

Calgary

Columbus

Dallas

Vancouver

Minnesota

Pittsburgh

Boston

Philly

New Jersey

Washington

Buffalo

Carolina

NYR

The East seems a lot more difficult to put a finger on than the West. Even with Dallas and Minnesota in the lineup to make the playoffs.

Edited August 24, 2009 by Echolalia

[StevieY9802 6]

I'm not sold on SJ being #1. Or maybe thet finish there again and lose in the first or 2nd round again. Hawks have the offense and are 1 year older which will help but Huet is the real ?. If he can put together a season where he plays more like he did in game 5 then they will be ok but there is no evidence to show he can be that consistant. The Hawks fate rests on him. They can make the playoffs with him but if he plays as inconsistant as last year they won't finish too high and they won't go far.

But I think the article is pretty spot on. Sabres can make the playoffs, would have last year if Miller was healthy probably. I could see the Oilers or the Kings slipping in at #8 but other than that it's possible.

39 days.

[titanium2 867]

crippling news on nhl.com for Detroit and the hockey world.Pens aim to keep Stanley around !

http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=479969

I'm sure Sid plans on not looking like an ugly disgusting pedophile during the playoffs but you can't always get what you want.

[eva unit zero 271]

Eva, did you pick Jersey to face the Wings just so you could say that Ozzie's career postseason numbers, number of cups and head to head against Brodeur was better?

Not saying I wouldnt mind it, because Ozzie deserves it.

NVM, but Philly will go further.

Philly has a minor advantage in the top-six forwards. They have a better defense at the top end but Jersey is deeper overall on D. But the real question is...which goaltender will Philly look to, Ray Emery or Brian Boucher? One of them will definitely prove to be an top end goaltender, right? Everyone is bashing Huet; I take Huet over either of those guys without even thinking twice.

Philly is a decent team. But unless Brodeur misses most of this season too, the Devils will finish ahead of the Flyers. Flyers won't beat the Devils in the regular season standings, and they wouldn't beat them in a series, unless there are major injury factors or the goaltending issue is addressed.

[wingnut40 176]

I don't see us getting as high as 1st, but I see us getting as low as 4th either. I think 2nd or 3rd. And I vote we don't play the ducks at all in the playoffs.

Wings vs Blue Jackets

Wings vs Blues

Wings vs Hawks

Wings vs Devils

2010 Stanley Cup Champion: Detroit Red Wings

Conn Smythe Trophy Winner: Chris Osgood

This would be perfect travel-wise. These teams are more skilled than they are physically tough, IMO, so we won't be too beat up when we reach the Finals. And Ozzie can show is stuff against Brodeur. Someone needs to make this happen!

I'm sure Sid plans on not looking like an ugly disgusting pedophile during the playoffs but you can't always get what you want.

Quoted for lolz.

[Greatness=PavelDatsyuk 65]

crippling news on nhl.com for Detroit and the hockey world.Pens aim to keep Stanley around !

http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=479969

Who would have freaking well guessed that, I though Pittsburgh was just going to not even play and let the other 29 teams go for it while they get a couple more first overall draft picks. If just saying that your going to keep the cup is enough, then the Wings would have won it last year.

Edited August 24, 2009 by Greatness=PavelDatsyuk

[Lovin Jiri Fischer 147]

I don't see us getting as high as 1st, but I see us getting as low as 4th either. I think 2nd or 3rd. And I vote we don't play the ducks at all in the playoffs.

Even if you think we would get 2nd or 3rd that means we win the division. I don't think we will get 2nd or 3rd though. It's going to be 1st or a very very small chance at 4th. The Central is now the best division in the West with all 5 teams being very capable of making the playoffs. I think whoever wins the Central will also win the conference. I don't think San Jose, Anaheim, Vancouver, or Calgary are good enough where they would win the conference over Detroit or Chicago. Anaheim took a hit by losing Pronger. San Jose is in deeeep trouble and still doesn't have a complete team that can fit under the cap. So I don't think the Pacific winner will be #1. And I don't think Calgary and Vancouver are strong enough teams to pull it off either.

[Hockeytown0001 7,652]

The standings could very well also be altered with whoever ultimately lands Heatley. If he doesn't get moved (and I don't think he will), I don't expect another potential 50 goal year, but rather for him to spend the season sulking that he didn't get to leave.

[Red Winged 8]

When are these clowns going to realize they should NEVER underestimate the Detroit Red Wings?

[BeeRYCE 2]

Two more words.... SALARY CAP

Drafting star players doesn't hurt financially until 3 years.

[chrisdetroit 189]

I think Chicago and St. Louis are going to be better teams because they're more confident and proved a lot last year. St. Louis especially with Kariya back will be far tougher than people are giving them credit for. Their 2nd half last year was solid minus Kariya who might be good for 70-80 points. They've got two guys who can win games for them in goal as well and nothing to lose this year.

And as much as I'm excited about the Wings this year, I think it's foolish to think that we haven't taken a fairly sizable step backwards as it stands now. A lot can change as the season goes on if guys step up and prove themselves, but as of now, there's too many question marks to think that we're going to roll right into first and teams like Chicago and Calgary won't put up a good fight. In my mind, the West has the potential to ice 8 teams for the playoffs that all have just as good of a shot as the others to win the Cup.

And I'm all for the competition. It's going to be a great year.

That's ridiculous. 8 teams with Cup potential. Are you serious? I see at the most 3-4 Detroit, San Jose, Vancouver, Calgary.

Chicago has a goaltending and defense problem

Aneheim took a maor hit in losing Pronger and Beauchamin

Even if you throw in Chicago and Aneheim, who are the other 2?

Columbus? St. Louis? Be serious

[gcom007 1,465]

That's ridiculous. 8 teams with Cup potential. Are you serious? I see at the most 3-4 Detroit, San Jose, Vancouver, Calgary.

Chicago has a goaltending and defense problem

Aneheim took a maor hit in losing Pronger and Beauchamin

Even if you throw in Chicago and Aneheim, who are the other 2?

Columbus? St. Louis? Be serious

Chicago, Calgary, San Jose, Detroit, St. Louis, Vancouver, Anaheim, Edmonton/Dallas

Anaheim's not going to be as hard off as people are writing them off to be so long as Hiller stays solid.

Mock me on St. Louis now but get back to me in March.

Chicago's potential goaltending issue is a reasonable concern but isn't as bad as it's hyped out to be especially considering their scoring power

Edmonton/Dallas will most likely find a swagger heading in

And here's the thing you're not considering when I say this: Matchups are going to mean more than anything this year. I spoke of this at length elsewhere, but the thing is, you're likely to see a 4-5 matchup featuring 2 teams that may in fact be superior to the 1st and 2nd place seeds. I think San Jose will run away with 1st due to their division but they may utterly pale in comparison to anyone in the central. Calgary won't have to be "amazingly super great" to win their division. I think the Central's up for grabs between Chicago and Detroit but it doesn't matter. Bottom line is that matchups are going to be more important than ever and it's for that reason that I think every team going in in the West is going to have a shot.

Like I said, laugh about St. Louis now, but when they have a great season this year and head into the playoffs, maybe they pull a 7-8 seed due to being in a tougher division and play San Jose. I think they'll have a real good chance of beating San Jose. They do that and they kill a 1 seed and meanwhile, a 4-5 seed team that may be better than the 1-2 teams goes out. You see what I'm getting at? The West is going to be wild this year and down the stretch and into the playoffs, there's going to be a lot more factors involved in predicting who will go the distance.

P.S. Even with Huet I as well as plenty of others in the commentary world think Chicago is a better team this year than last. Last year they put up 104 points and we put up 112. While it very well could be a tossup, there's a very, very real possibility that Chicago will take the Central for the 3rd seed (I do think Central will be 3rd no matter what) and at that point, we'll probably end up 4th or 5th. Either way, even if we win, it's going to be a tougher fight than we had in the first couple rounds last year while Chicago will get someone like Anaheim most likely. On and on......I'm not saying we're done for, but again, I'm just saying, there's going to be a lot of variables to any teams post-season success that we haven't seen in awhile if ever.

Edited August 25, 2009 by gcom007

[Buppy 1,720]

Chicago, Calgary, San Jose, Detroit, St. Louis, Vancouver, Anaheim, Edmonton/Dallas

Anaheim's not going to be as hard off as people are writing them off to be so long as Hiller stays solid.

Mock me on St. Louis now but get back to me in March.

Chicago's potential goaltending issue is a reasonable concern but isn't as bad as it's hyped out to be especially considering their scoring power

Edmonton/Dallas will most likely find a swagger heading in

And here's the thing you're not considering when I say this: Matchups are going to mean more than anything this year. I spoke of this at length elsewhere, but the thing is, you're likely to see a 4-5 matchup featuring 2 teams that may in fact be superior to the 1st and 2nd place seeds. I think San Jose will run away with 1st due to their division but they may utterly pale in comparison to anyone in the central. Calgary won't have to be "amazingly super great" to win their division. I think the Central's up for grabs between Chicago and Detroit but it doesn't matter. Bottom line is that matchups are going to be more important than ever and it's for that reason that I think every team going in in the West is going to have a shot.

Like I said, laugh about St. Louis now, but when they have a great season this year and head into the playoffs, maybe they pull a 7-8 seed due to being in a tougher division and play San Jose. I think they'll have a real good chance of beating San Jose. They do that and they kill a 1 seed and meanwhile, a 4-5 seed team that may be better than the 1-2 teams goes out. You see what I'm getting at? The West is going to be wild this year and down the stretch and into the playoffs, there's going to be a lot more factors involved in predicting who will go the distance.

P.S. Even with Huet I as well as plenty of others in the commentary world think Chicago is a better team this year than last. Last year they put up 104 points and we put up 112. While it very well could be a tossup, there's a very, very real possibility that Chicago will take the Central for the 3rd seed (I do think Central will be 3rd no matter what) and at that point, we'll probably end up 4th or 5th. Either way, even if we win, it's going to be a tougher fight than we had in the first couple rounds last year while Chicago will get someone like Anaheim most likely. On and on......I'm not saying we're done for, but again, I'm just saying, there's going to be a lot of variables to any teams post-season success that we haven't seen in awhile if ever.

I don't think it's any different than any other year. Pretty much any year, the majority of playoff teams can be considered contenders. Testament to the great parity in the league. Doesn't seem to me that any of the Western teams have improved all that much, nor have the Wings declined as much as some suggest. It will be a tough road (again), but I don't see anything to suggest that the Wings aren't still the cream of the western crop. Sure, we have questions and need guys to step up...but so does everyone else.

Blackhawks traded Havlat for Hossa and made some minor moves at the bottom of the roster, and have a big question mark in goal. Experience will improve them some, but I think the playoffs showed they were much farther behind us than the regular season indicated.

Calgary got Bouwmeester, but still rely too heavily on Iginla for scoring. And outside of that Finals year, Kipper hasn't looked at all special.

Vancouver is solid, but they go where Luongo takes them. No different than last year.

Anaheim took a step back on defense, but added some more offense up front. Shouldn't be any more of a challenge than last year, and that's assuming Hiller doesn't falter (or accidentally put on pads that fit...).

The Sharks don't even have a full roster yet, and they're over the cap. I'll reserve judgement on them until I see what Wilson does.

St.Louis with a healthy Kariya could be a dark horse, but they were pretty far behind. They'll be good I'm sure, but I don't think I'd call them a real contender.

Columbus, Dallas, Edmonton, and LA (and maybe Nashville) will probably all be fighting for the last playoff spot, but none look all that dangerous. Sure, if they get hot at the right time they could pull an upset, but you could say that about any team.

All in all, if the Wings stay healthy and play with focus, they should win both the Central and the West (depending on what happens with the Sharks), and maybe another President's trophy. In the playoffs, we'll likely have to go through at least two very good teams, and at least one trip west. Tough for sure, but not unusually so...not like it's ever easy. A 4th straight long playoff run is even harder, but they wouldn't be the first team to do it. Wouldn't even be the first time for a handful of current Wings. We have at least as good a chance as anyone, and better certainly than most.

[mmamolo 287]

Playoffs:

Wings vs Blue Jackets

Sharks vs Ducks

Canucks vs Blues

Hawks vs Flames

Although the seeds would be different you've got the exact same four playoff matchups predicted for 2010 as we had in the 2009 season. Simple probability says that the chances of that happening are extremely small.

I don't think Vancouver will be that strong. I say Clalgary wins the Northwest.

I'd also like to mention how every single year the media all predict Detroit to be weaker. Heading into every playoff the media predicts Detroit to stumble. Most often to not the media doesn't give the Wings the credit they deserved. It's no shock everyone thinks the Wings will stumble this year. I guarentee you that even after the two dominant playoffs runs Osgood has gone on the last two years when it's time to enter the playoffs this year the media will claim Detroit has questions marks in net.

Personally, I'm used to the Wings being underrated. It makes it all the sweeter when they show them up.

That being said, I'm not sold the Wings will end up the first seed but I do think they will still win the Central. I'm not entirely sold on Chicago. I think they had a fairly easy route to the WCF last year. Calgary crumbled and Vancouver never gets passed the 2nd round becuase they don't score enough come playoff time even with Luongo in net. Now taking Khabibulin away and going with Huet as your number one kinda stings too if you ask me.

[Echolalia 2,961]

Although the seeds would be different you've got the exact same four playoff matchups predicted for 2010 as we had in the 2009 season. Simple probability says that the chances of that happening are extremely small.

The chances of this occurring aren't any less likely than any other possibility.

[mmamolo 287]

The chances of this occurring aren't any less likely than any other possibility.

The probability of each team is not weighted evenly. On a dice you have the same possibilities of rolling a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6. Here you have intangible factors that make certain teams better than others. Adding to that teams relative probabilities of finishing in certain spots has changed from last year to this year.

For Example: The probability of Detroit winning the Central Division last was say 95%. While the probability of them winning this year is say 50% due to Chicago being that much more improved and Detroit being that much more weak. Coupled with that you have to consider the probability that Columbus finishes in a spot to recreate the matchup. Their relative probability has also changed.

With teams like LA and Edmonton improving and Columbus and St Louis staying relatively the same the probability of LA or Edmonton of making the playoffs has gone up while the probability of St Louis or Columbus making the playoffs has gone down simply by the improvement of LA and Edmonton's probability.

This changes everything. You're right if you were to look at it as though it is completely an evenly distributed probability, but it's not.

[Echolalia 2,961]

The probability of each team is not weighted evenly. On a dice you have the same possibilities of rolling a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6. Here you have intangible factors that make certain teams better than others. Adding to that teams relative probabilities of finishing in certain spots has changed from last year to this year.

For Example: The probability of Detroit winning the Central Division last was say 95%. While the probability of them winning this year is say 50% due to Chicago being that much more improved and Detroit being that much more weak. Coupled with that you have to consider the probability that Columbus finishes in a spot to recreate the matchup. Their relative probability has also changed.

With teams like LA and Edmonton improving and Columbus and St Louis staying relatively the same the probability of LA or Edmonton of making the playoffs has gone up while the probability of St Louis or Columbus making the playoffs has gone down simply by the improvement of LA and Edmonton's probability.

This changes everything. You're right if you were to look at it as though it is completely an evenly distributed probability, but it's not.

There are honestly a number of ways of breaking it down. The statistics that you are bringing up are based heavily off intangibles and are as unreliable as we expect them to be (see: Dallas, Colorado, Penguins 2009). While it's still a legit way of looking at it, its a different field of statistics all together than simple probability, which states that every team currently has an equal chance right now of making the playoffs, as well as winning the Cup.

[chrisdetroit 189]

The chances of this occurring aren't any less likely than any other possibility.

The problem is that it is not strictly a probability issue, there are many factors that influence the pairings that are not purely chance.

For example, if you take away those factors, the probability of any two teams playing each other like Detroit playing Columbus are the same as any other matchup. That is IF it were all just chance. Los Angeles playing Colorado in the WCF would be just as probable as Detroit playing Chicago.

But we all know that those other factors skew the probabilities enormously. The probability of Los Angeles playing Colorado in the WCF is near zero but the probability of Detroit playing San Jose is much higher.

Without Beachamin and Pronger, the probability of Aneheim beating the Sharks is much different than it was this past season.

I get your point though, IF all of the factors remained the same as last year, the probability of having the same pairings as last year is NOT AT ALL effected by what happened last year. This is a common misunderstanding about probabilities. If you flip a coin 1000 times and it comes up heads each time the probability that the 1001 flip will be heads is still 50%. The probability of you flipping 1001 coins and them all coming up heads is (0.50)^1001

or almost zero.

This misunderstanding is a big reason why there are such elaborate buildings in Las Vegas.

[Echolalia 2,961]

The problem is that it is not strictly a probability issue, there are many factors that influence the pairings that are not purely chance.

For example, if you take away those factors, the probability of any two teams playing each other like Detroit playing Columbus are the same as any other matchup. That is IF it were all just chance. Los Angeles playing Colorado in the WCF would be just as probable as Detroit playing Chicago.

But we all know that those other factors skew the probabilities enormously. The probability of Los Angeles playing Colorado in the WCF is near zero but the probability of Detroit playing San Jose is much higher.

Without Beachamin and Pronger, the probability of Aneheim beating the Sharks is much different than it was this past season.

I get your point though, IF all of the factors remained the same as last year, the probability of having the same pairings as last year is NOT AT ALL effected by what happened last year. This is a common misunderstanding about probabilities. If you flip a coin 1000 times and it comes up heads each time the probability that the 1001 flip will be heads is still 50%. The probability of you flipping 1001 coins and them all coming up heads is (0.50)^1001

or almost zero.

This misunderstanding is a big reason why there are such elaborate buildings in Las Vegas.

I'm aware that the safer bet would be with Detroit or San Jose than with Phoenix, and the science behind making such a prediction. Yet I wanted to show that all the factors that give a team success or give a team failure are rather difficult to rely on for predictions (hence why those elaborate buildings in Las Vegas have often caused a lot of people to lose a lot of money). For example, with the extent of our knowledge, Ovechkin has an equal chance of shattering his leg from blocking a shot or rupturing his spleen or something (either hockey related or otherwise) and missing the rest of the season next December as a player like Sammuelson, yet only one of those injuries could decide whether their respective team makes it to the playoffs or not. What if Ovechkin had the flu the day he would've broke his leg, and Bourque was in his place blocking the shot and broke his leg instead? It gets very muddy very quickly, and for the sake of the argument its redundant to continue on with seemingly pointless examples, but the point I'm trying to make is the factors that people rely on to decide whether a team is a good bet or not aren't concrete. That 70% chance of team X making the playoffs isn't 100% accurate (which is an interesting thought in itself).

Anyway, the way that mmamalalo worded his response seemed like he was focusing solely on probability (and the misunderstandings that you have addressed), and I was responding more to the possible misunderstanding than anything else.