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% chance of making the playoffs


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#1 FireCaptain

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Posted 18 March 2014 - 01:00 PM

I'll try and update this daily with the latest projections from Sports Club Stats.

 

http://www.sportsclu...ic/Detroit.html

 

 

Looking ahead:

Friday's (3/28/14) chance: 46.4%.

 

What we need tonight (all %ages assume regulation win/loss) (red is status with undesired outcome):

 

Philly win                          (TOR loss)  -  +2.1%     (-2.2) 

Pittsburg win                    (CLB loss)  -  +2.6%     (-2.1) 

Chicago win                     (OTT loss)  -  +0.1%     (-0.2) 

Calgary win                      (NYR loss)  -  +0.2%     (-0.1) 


Edited by FireCaptain, 28 March 2014 - 09:44 AM.

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#2 nawein

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Posted 18 March 2014 - 01:28 PM

I'll try and update this daily with the latest projections from Sports Club Stats.
 
http://www.sportsclu...ic/Detroit.html
 
Today's (3/18/14) chance: 35.2%
 
What we need tonight (all %ages assume regulation win/loss):
Wings win - +8.3%
Boston win (NJD loss) - +1.4%
Ottawa win (NYR) - +1.6%
Chicago win (PHI) - +1.3%
Columbus win (CAR) - +1.5%
Anahein win (WAS) - +0.7%
Colorado win (MTL) - +0.6%
 


The sad thing is aside from us winning all of those things are probable and none will happen.

#3 BottleOfSmoke

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Posted 18 March 2014 - 01:30 PM

% chance of BoS ugly crying over hockey: 100%

(+\- 79%)

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#4 LAWings

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Posted 18 March 2014 - 02:24 PM

I think a quote from the Naked Gun is very highly appropriate at this point:

 

http://www.hark.com/...hance-of-living



#5 FireCaptain

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Posted 18 March 2014 - 02:37 PM

Subwager:

Wings win:

Tears of joy - 80%

Tears of sadness - 15%

Undecided - 5%

 

Wings lose:

Tears of anger - 90%

Tears of "told you we should have just sold everything at the deadline and tanked" - 10%

% chance of BoS ugly crying over hockey: 100%

(+\- 79%)


Edited by FireCaptain, 18 March 2014 - 02:38 PM.

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We not score, is hard to win. - Pavel Datsyuk #13

#6 SDavis35

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Posted 18 March 2014 - 03:40 PM

I'm always checking up on that site. I'm surprised at how easily a team's % can change though. roughly +15% brings us to 50% chance of making playoffs if we win tonight. 



#7 FireCaptain

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Posted 18 March 2014 - 04:38 PM

Exactly what I was thinking. 

 

*fingers crossed

 

The magic record seems to be 7-4-4 to have a better than 50% chance (of making the playoffs) this year.

 

It jumps to over 75% if we can just squeak out another win and be 8-4-3.

 

I'm always checking up on that site. I'm surprised at how easily a team's % can change though. roughly +15% brings us to 50% chance of making playoffs if we win tonight. 


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#8 SimonSin

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Posted 18 March 2014 - 04:51 PM

Not good. I'm pretty sure if they lose tonight you can kiss the playoffs goodbye.



#9 toby91_ca

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Posted 18 March 2014 - 05:09 PM

I'm always checking up on that site. I'm surprised at how easily a team's % can change though. roughly +15% brings us to 50% chance of making playoffs if we win tonight. 

It makes sense though with where they currently sit in the standings.  They could move within 1 point of the last wild card after tonight, with games in hand I believe....so 50/50 would make sense.

 

If they lose in regulation tonight and the Rangers win...they'd be 5 points out and chances would start looking very slim.



#10 wings87

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Posted 18 March 2014 - 05:39 PM

This thread is depressing...


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#11 Hey man nice shot!

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Posted 18 March 2014 - 05:43 PM

Lets be optimistic here 



#12 frankgrimes

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Posted 18 March 2014 - 05:51 PM

Well statistics are just that, the fact is this:

 

the team is no longer controlling it's own faith so they need to play their best hockey AND hope that other teams are struggling. Will it happen? I don't think so but till they aren't mathematically out there's always a chance.


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#13 FireCaptain

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 08:48 PM

Saved for posterity.

3/18:

 

Today's (3/18/14) chance: 35.2%

 

What we need tonight (all %ages assume regulation win/loss):

Wings win - +8.3%

Boston win (NJD loss) - +1.4%

Ottawa win (NYR) - +1.6%

Chicago win (PHI) - +1.3%

Columbus win (CAR) - +1.5%

Anahein win (WAS) - +0.7%

Colorado win (MTL) - +0.6%


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Success has a thousand fathers, failure is an orphan.
We not score, is hard to win. - Pavel Datsyuk #13

#14 canadian wings fan

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 09:05 PM

hopefully the Leafs tank. I believe they're our only chance in (and of course we need to win our games)



#15 wingsfan4795

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 09:31 PM

hopefully the Leafs tank. I believe they're our only chance in (and of course we need to win our games)

The rangers and jackets aren't too far off either. I could see one of them going on a losing streak

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#16 MabusIncarnate

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 10:11 PM

Leafs lost tonight, Bernier is injured and Reimer looked awful. Let the tanking commence. 


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#17 VM1138

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 10:20 PM

Columbus took a hit, too. I read somewhere that the Wings actually have the best odds right now to secure a spot out of others on the outside.

I think both wild cards are in play now and the Wings have games in hand on everyone exceot Columbus. A lot hinges on if we can win the next game or two to at least make us the benchmark.
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#18 Shaman

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 10:25 PM

Columbus took a hit, too. I read somewhere that the Wings actually have the best odds right now to secure a spot out of others on the outside.

I think both wild cards are in play now and the Wings have games in hand on everyone exceot Columbus. A lot hinges on if we can win the next game or two to at least make us the benchmark.

Don't worry, soon the rest of the team will be injured the way things are going.


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#19 puckloo39

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 10:43 PM

Don't worry, soon the rest of the team will be injured the way things are going.

 

they called me up for the game tomorrow... :scared:   

 

Seriously, statistics don't mean everything, in this case, I believe anything could happen - including the Wings getting into the playoffs by a point or even a couple.  I won't give up until the last possible second of the last game, whenever that is.


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#20 rrasco

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 11:41 PM

Don't forget the Wings did not get into the playoffs last year until the last game.


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