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FireCaptain

% chance of making the playoffs

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I remain optimistic till we are out and if it comes to pass we are out. Then I look forward to next year with some healthy vets, experienced kids and some new kids coming in and the start of a new streak!

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Things have gone our way the past two or three days, it's up to the team now to take advantage.

They should be ready for a crazy third period push because of any team would win a crushing, come from behind back breaker against us it'd be Pittsburgh, with Crosby scoring the winner.

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I'll try and update this daily with the latest projections from Sports Club Stats.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Atlantic/Detroit.html

Today's (3/20/14) chance: 44.8%

What we need tonight (all %ages assume regulation win/loss) (red is status with undesired outcome):

Wings win - +10.5% (-10.2)

Kings win (WSH loss) - +1.4% (-1.8)

Canadiens win (CLB) - +1.5% (-1.3)

Minnesota win (NJD) - +1.6% (-1.7)

Dallas win (PHI) - +1.2% (-0.7)

Lightning win (OTT) - +0.3% (-0.4)

I could see all of those things happening tonight, which means they won't. We could potentially go from 44.8% to 61.3% tonight. Or you know, down to like 30%...

FireCaptain likes this

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This season is just killing me with the injuries and the 3rd period meltdowns. I haven't missed a game in over 5 years but I'm going to have to miss next week's games due to having to attend a shotgun wedding in Vegas :)(anyone know of a good hockey bar in Vegas??)

If the kids can get us into the playoffs and the majority of players on IR are ready to go for the first round, then watch out!

Crap.... somebody has to put a little bit of optimism in this thread.

The good thing about Vegas is because of all the sports betting lots of places should have the games, but you still have to find them. When I was there a few years back I watched the games at Blondies Sports Bar in the Planet Hollywood Miracle Mile Mall.

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It's incredible the Red Wings have any shot whatsoever. I still don't think it will happen, but Babs has done stellar work keeping the team afloat. There's no reason for them to be this close to a playoff spot.

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52.9% could be more or less depending on outcome of kings caps game. Essentially nothing but our game went our way tonight.

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If I do the math right based on the numbers in the first post and the results and standings so far in this evening we'd have a

44,8% + 10,5% (WinvsPens) + 1,4 (WSH trailing roght now) -1,3 ( WinCBJ) - 1,7 (WinNJD) - 0,7 (WinPHI) + 0,3 (WinTBL) = 53,3% chance of making the playoff. Correct me if I'm wrong.

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Today's (3/20/14) chance: 44.8%

What we need tonight (all %ages assume regulation win/loss) (red is status with undesired outcome):

Wings win - +10.3%

Kings win (WSH loss) - +1.4% (-1.8)

Canadiens win (CLB) - +1.5% (-1.3)

Minnesota win (NJD) - +1.6% (-1.1)

Dallas win (PHI) - +1.2% (-0.7)

Lightning win (OTT) - +0.3% (-0.4)


The numbers fluctuate slightly as the games play out every night, so you may be off by a point or two.

Prior to the west coast game, we sit at 53.1%!!

If I do the math right based on the numbers in the first post and the results and standings so far in this evening we'd have a

44,8% + 10,5% (WinvsPens) + 1,4 (WSH trailing roght now) -1,3 ( WinCBJ) - 1,7 (WinNJD) - 0,7 (WinPHI) + 0,3 (WinTBL) = 53,3% chance of making the playoff. Correct me if I'm wrong.

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Today's (3/20/14) chance: 53.1% with one to play.

What we need tonight (all %ages assume regulation win/loss) (red is status with undesired outcome):

Kings win (WSH loss) - +1.4% (-1.8)

Ugh.. going to OT..

Kings win OT (WSH loss) - +0.1% (-1.6)

Ugh.. going to OT..

Kings win SO (WSH loss) - +0.1% (-1.2)

So, at this point, we just need a KINGS win to not backslide.

KINGS WIN!

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Isn't this why we re-signed Dan Cleary? For the PLAYOFFS? Hey, his 8 points this year have been a tremendous help!

evilmrt and Rick D like this

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Isn't this why we re-signed Dan Cleary? For the PLAYOFFS? Hey, his 8 points this year have been a tremendous help!

Hash tag warrior

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Pretty awesome that our playoff chances jumped up about 20% in just 2 games. Hopefully they can keep on winning, as it can drop just as quick.

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Here are the schedules of the teams we're fighting with.

Toronto (3 pts ahead but played 2 more games)

Montreal
@New Jersey (2nd of back to back)
St. Louis(3rd in 4 nights)
@Philadelphia
Detroit (2nd of back to back)
Calgary
Boston
Winnipeg
@Tampa Bay
@Florida
@Ottawa

Rangers (3 pts ahead but played 2 more games)

@New Jersey(2nd of back to back)
Phoenix (3rd in 4 nights)
Philadelphia
@Calgary
@Edmonton
@Vancouver
@Colorado
Ottawa
Carolina
Buffalo
Montreal

Columbus (1 pt ahead but 1 more game played)

@Islanders (3rd in 4 nights and 4th in 6 nights)
Detroit
Penguins
@Carolina (2nd of back to back)
Colorado
@Philadelphia
Chicago (2nd of Back to back and 3rd game in 4 nights)
Islanders (3rd in 4 nights and 4th in 6 nights)
Phoenix
@Dallas
@Tampa Bay
@Florida (2nd of back to back and 3rd in 4 nights)

Washington (tied in pts but 2 more games played)
@San Jose
Los Angeles
Boston
@Nashville (2nd of back to back)
Dallas (3rd in 4 nights)
@New Jersey
@Islanders (2nd of Back to back)
@St Louis
@Carolina
Chicago (2nd of back to back)
Tampa Bay (3rd in 4 nights)

Our remaining schedule

@Minnesota
Minnesota (2nd of back to back and 3rd in 4 nights)
@Columbus (4th in 6 nights)
Montreal
@Toronto
Tampa Bay (2nd of Back to Back)
Boston
Buffalo
@Montreal (2nd of back to back and 3rd in 4 nights)
@Buffalo
@Pittsburgh (2nd of back to back)
Carolina (3rd in 4 nights)
@St Louis
Looks to me that the Rangers and Leafs have far easier schedules than both us and Columbus. I expect Washington drop off in the next few games and the race for that final playoff spot to come down to a dogfight between us and Columbus.
Its kind of irritating that the Rangers who have the easiest travel schedule in the entire league also get the benefit of having almost none of their games on back to backs while we have 4 sets of them in the final 14 games.
derblaueClaus and FireCaptain like this

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Thanks for providing this list.

Schedule is one thing, the other question is which opponent will still compete for points and places (= is harder to play) , who is hot or not or who is injured at which time. I also don't think Washington will make it, but the Ranger's will. Toronto I'm not so sure about. Their starter is injured, they have dropped a few games lately and can feel the breath of the following teams. That might get them nervous, so it will be a dogfight of three teams in my opinion. ;). That said, the games against Toronto and Colombus are like 4 point-games. If we win them I'm pretty confident we'll make it.

Edited by derblaueClaus

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I wouldn't consider Montreal out of reach either. They're 6 points up, but we have two in hand and play them twice.

@Toronto

@Boston

Buffalo

@Detroit

@Florida

@Tampa Bay

@Ottawa

Detroit

@Chicago

Islanders

Rangers

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FRIDAY'S WISH LIST 3/21/14.



Columbus win (NYR loss) - +0.6% (+0.3) (odd result, we get %age points either way)


This game NEEDS to end in regulation tho. If not, that third point KILLS us - we go from PLUS half a point or so to MINUS one and a half.




Chicago win (NYR loss) - +0.1% (-0.2)


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How does a Chicago win affect us?

+0.1% for Chicago's Win.

Tomorrows games that affect us are

Minnesota v Detroit

Toronto v Montreal

San Jose v Washington

New Jersey v New York R.

Philadelphia v St. Louis

Dallas v Ottawa

Winnipeg v Carolina

If we win in regulation or OT our chances improve to 64.8%, Winning in a shootout improves our chances to 64%.

Losing in OT or a shootout improves our chances to 54% and losing in regulation drops our chances to 42.5%

Best case scenario for us is all the bolded winning in regulation. That would improve our chances to 70.5%

evilmrt likes this

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Chicago wins affect us if they play someone in the mix with us.

By winning against the Rangers, they kept the Rangers from adding more points, thus they could - potentially - drop from third in the Metro division, opening the spot for Columbus or Washington. Which then puts the Rags in play for the wildcard spots we are fighting for.

How does a Chicago win affect us?

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Chicago wins affect us if they play someone in the mix with us.

By winning against the Rangers, they kept the Rangers from adding more points, thus they could - potentially - drop from third in the Metro division, opening the spot for Columbus or Washington. Which then puts the Rags in play for the wildcard spots we are fighting for.

Wasn't it nyr vs. Columbus

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