Next Seasons Needs/Team Future

[Bannedforlife 403]

Look, I actually agree with you in spirit. I tend to be really pro-spending in these kinds of discussions. But, objectively, Kenny does have to be really careful. This summer's UFA class is going to be exceedingly thin, so the prices for the few really good options are going to be driven way the f*** up, probably to the point of outright absurdity (see: David Clarkson). On the other hand, the 2015 class looks like it could be pretty damn good. (Dat class.) So I'd be ok with mostly saving (i.e. not spending) this summer for the sake of improving our chances with next year's UFA class. More space also gives us more flexibility with potential trades. And I do think it's worth seeing if our young guns - mostly Nyquist and Tatar - can't become big-time players before bringing in two huge contracts.

I'd still love Girardi this summer, mind you.

95% of the elite players on that list will re-sign with their current teams. Happens every year. The remaining 5% will get way overpaid on the free agent market. Thats the way it is now

[Buppy 1,720]

Whatever. This team is not a couple of secondary scorers or depth defensemen away from a stanley cup. We need an elite puck moving defenseman AND a classic goal scoring power forward. We dont have either of those in the system and we won't be able to sign one with a self-imposed player salary cap of 6ish million dollars.

Well, without going into whether there is, or should be, a self-imposed cap; Datsyuk will have a hit of $7.5M, and a salary next year of $10M. Hank is getting $29.5M in the next 4 years. They are at elite level salary even if Hank does have an artifically low cap hit. That may not be high enough, if indeed we aren't willing to pay more than that, to get the top UFA in any given year, but it is plenty enough to get a very good player.

Failing to land Vanek, which is certainly possible (likely even) no matter what we're willing to pay, would not be the end of the franchise. There are other options, including just going with our own kids and hoping another opportunity presents itself later or we just get hot at the right time.

Handing a blank check to the best UFA available is generally a poor way to build a team. Personally, I wouldn't mind paying a good chunk for Vanek, since it looks like we have a mostly full and pretty cap-friendly roster for the next several years. But I'd be reluctant to make a long-term, big-dollar commitment to a 30 year old, and that's probably what it will take to land him.

[joesuffP 1,746]

who in their right mind would trade an elite defenseman...let alone a decent one..for those guys?

Real assets like Tatar, Nyquist and then tack on those expiring contracts so the trade is cap compliant. Then they let them walk. It's a salary dump. If the other team likes the deal they'll take on a few expiring contracts so that it works out

[joesuffP 1,746]

What about the possibility of some guys being bought out in the offseason

[PumpkinEscobar 136]

Tatar and Nyquist aren't going anywhere

[jimmyemeryhunter 2,747]

Honestly.

I understand the notion of not over paying the best free agents on the market, just because they're the biggest fish in a small pond...

But with the cap rising, after we pay our rfas well still be relatively near the cap floor unless we give severe raises to players who haven't fully earned it yet.

If Alfie resigns, awesome.

But assuming all the dead weight is gone,and Alfie doesn't resign we could still add a $4-5m d, and a $6-7m scorer and have cap space to where we wouldn't be in this kind of hell next season.

Also. Even If we signed vanek at 7m at 7 years by the time his contract is up the cap limit will be $100m+.

I don't necessarily think we should go after him unless we can get him on a shorter term deal, maybe convince him he can benefit from hitting free agency again with the cap rising so drastically.

I'd like for kh to put an offer sheet in on Kane, or that well luck out and one of him or toews will decide to test free agency before the 15-16 season.

Long shot, but not impossible.

I think some are putting too much into the idea of throwing top dollar at vanek, but even more that his contract will be that big of a burden.

Because the cap is rising, fast.

And will probably go up faster after next season because of the new TV deal, and the rising popularity that's bringing in more And more revenue..

So you're both right to an extent.

But anything is manageable.

And I don't expect to have the amount of young guys step into the lineup and flourish like we had this season, so comparing our cap space/best possible roster this year to what well be dealing with in the next few years says nothing.

Nyquist Tatar jurco sheahan and to a lesser extent glendenning are all pleasant surprises out of a bad situations, and the only problem with them now is the clearly, Sammy, bertuzzi deals.

Which all signs point to then not being back next year...

Will there be better options than vanek for the next three years, most likely not.

Will there be options that turn out to be better between the 4 and 7 yr marks, absolutely.

theres no crystal ball, but the superstar cap hit in 2014 will be your average stars hit with the salary cap of 2017. by that time the young guys will be able to step into larger roles, most of them will be coming out of the 2-3 yr bridge deals, plus datsyuks contract is up after that season.

Then we'll be signing our next level talent to bridge deals or young superstar deals if they pan out.

Oh and if you're questioning where I'm getting these figures from,

http://spectorshockey.net/blog/get-ready-for-a-100-million-nhl-salary-cap/

There's good arguments for both sides.

Vanek isnt known for his defense, which probably wouldn't work out all that well here.

So Go with the young guys, resign alfie and try to bolster our d, then at the deadline we can give up lesser packages in return for eating salary of cap troubles teams. And if nothing comes along we have the rainy day fund waiting for the UFA we can't live without, if and when he comes around.

Or.

Go all out and over pay the likes of vanek and girardi in the off season and have less cap space, but still enough to try to make a deadline move.

Both have their risks, both have rewards.

Edited February 8, 2014 by jimmyemeryhunter

[jimmyemeryhunter 2,747]

I just hope we can resign ~&~

(Theplayerformerlyknownas)

Edit: I also really hope we bring in Fedor malykhin next season and give him a shot like we did with Brunner.

Edited February 8, 2014 by jimmyemeryhunter

[Buppy 1,720]

True, one more deal isn't going to be that great a burden (unless we seriously overpay, and $7M wouldn't be). For me it's more a matter of principle. You don't want to make bad decisions just because you think you can survive the consequences.

Furthermore, we do need to start thinking about a true rebuild. And that's true even if we do sign Vanek. While I understand the desire to try to build another Cup team around Pav and Hank, that shouldn't be our only thought. The real risk in making a long commitment to someone like Vanek is falling into the trap of building a team with no real foundation.

We add Vanek, in a few years Pav retires, but we still have no replacement. Maybe Hank is no longer top tier, Franzen declined further, or even both retired... we still have some decent players, still a playoff team, still maybe that illusion of being just a piece or two away... so we start thinking about what we can add to Vanek, bring in some new FA and repeat the process. A cycle of mediocrity where we're never quite good enough to win but never bad enough to get a true foundation player. Maybe it's worth it if we win a Cup in the next couple years, or maybe we recognize the trap and take steps to avoid it, but Vanek doesn't guarantee anything. Doesn't even guarantee that we'd actually be a better team than we are now.

While good decisions offer no guarantees either, and can even have terrible results, at least you have the consolation of knowing it was a good decision.

[Dabura 12,232]

95% of the elite players on that list will re-sign with their current teams. Happens every year. The remaining 5% will get way overpaid on the free agent market. Thats the way it is now

Yes, I know, I've made that very same point at least twice in the past 24 hours. I'm not expecting to have 20 stellar options by the time July 2015 rolls around. But I'm assuming the choices will be at least as good as this summer's. And if not? Then oh well. I won't be upset that we didn't shackle ourselves to two enormous, long-term contracts this summer just because we had the money.

Edited February 8, 2014 by Dabura

[Dabura 12,232]

If I have to ink two big UFAs this summer, I probably go for two defensemen, one of them being Girardi, the other being a one-year stopgap/bridge situation, e.g. Timonen, Salo. We don't want Heatley. Vanek's probably going to be a lifetime commitment. Gaborik might be willing to sign for three seasons @ around $7M, which might be worth it, but might not. Callahan isn't worth the $7M he's rumored to be looking for, and I wouldn't want him for more than two or three or maybe four seasons, given the question of his long-term durability. The more I think about it, the less convinced I am that we need to bring in a scorer now or in the summer or else our offense is doomed. If we're gonna load up, make it on the blue line. IMHO.

[e_prime 1,936]

What about the possibility of some guys being bought out in the offseason

You mean other teams cast-offs?

We'll have to wait and see on that. Despite some of the luck the Wings have had with them, reclamation projects are always iffy.

If I have to ink two big UFAs this summer, I probably go for two defensemen, one of them being Girardi, the other being a one-year stopgap/bridge situation, e.g. Timonen, Salo. We don't want Heatley. Vanek's probably going to be a lifetime commitment. Gaborik might be willing to sign for three seasons @ around $7M, which might be worth it, but might not. Callahan isn't worth the $7M he's rumored to be looking for, and I wouldn't want him for more than two or three or maybe four seasons, given the question of his long-term durability. The more I think about it, the less convinced I am that we need to bring in a scorer now or in the summer or else our offense is doomed. If we're gonna load up, make it on the blue line. IMHO.

Heatley. Vanek. Gaborik. No! No! No!

Heatley. Shell of his former self. Maybe he should stick lower his pay expectations and stick with Minny.

Vanek. A talent for sure. Price tag is too much. Spend that cash on a defenseman.

Gaborik. I will continue to rail on Gaborik until he retires. Elite talent for sure but, he will never be worth his hefty price-tag because of his never-ending injury status. $7 million for maybe a season and a half of playing time over three seasons. Thank you, and no.

Edited February 8, 2014 by e_prime

[Richdg 267]

Yes, everyone wants the RW's to pick up their personnel ideal player. Well guess what. Those guys are not out there. You can only pick up what is available. Hell Alfie who is 41 just got paid 5.2 million. You don't think vanek is worth 7+? That is just crazy. Again look at our roster for next season. We are full and have a bunch of money left over.

F: Datsyuk, Z, Nyquist, tatar, Jurco, Sheahan, Helm, Abby, Tootoo, Franzen, Miller, Glendening, Callahan, and Weiss. Who is ready in GR? No one. maybe Mantha in Feb if he has a great start. Only 1 guy can go to the minors without having to clear waivers. This is our forward group. A bottom 1/3 scoring group overall. Yes adding a guy like Perry or Ryan would be awesome. But they at this point in time are not available. Some talk about adding a top pair D man. There are none in UFA so we would have to trade. If that is what we are going to do, say good bye to 2 maybe 3 out of the Sheahan, Jurco, Tatar, and Nyquist group. Plus some young Dmen. if we do that, heck we don't even have 14 NHL caliber forwards. Do we even have 12 at that point?

Some of you are questioning Vaneks ability to score. That is juts silly. On a bad Sabres team last year he scored 20 in 48 games. Playing with Datsyuk and Z he gets 40+ easily. Yes he is that good of a goal scorer. Not he is not a great D player nor is he physical. Again, who out there AVAILABLE is? No one.

[DickieDunn 2,571]

People complain about Franzen's cap hit, and Vanek doesn't have very far to fall before he's scoring at the same rate as Franzen. The last 3 years, Franzen's 82 game paces have been 28.6G and 60.5 pts. Vanek has been at 31G and 71.5 pts. Given that he won't be the go to guy here, it's very possible that his offense drops off a bit just because of his role, and it will certainly fall off as he ages.

72 points and average defense isn't worth $7 mil, but given that's the market, he'll get it. So fine, pay him that, but there is no way in hell they need to pay him that over 7 years. I don't want a 36 year old Vanek scoring 22 goals and under 50 points taking up that much cap space with another year to go on his contract.

[Bannedforlife 403]

Are they going to outlaw trading in the future? Because I think that would be a terrible idea

[Richdg 267]

Why wouldn't he be the go to guy here? he would be the best goal scorer we have. Datsyuk is far more a passer than natural goal scorer. They would be a great pair.

I don't care what Franzen's 82 game averages are, he doesn't play 82 games. After his 3 or 4 concussions he will play less and less every year.

Vanek btw scored 20 goals in 38 games last year. That is a 40+ goal pace over a full season.

Come 2015 there are 5 UFA's that would be of interest: kane, Toews, Zajac, Spezza, and Ryan. Of those 5 not one has ever scored 40 goals. Kane has 1 season of scoring 30. Most of his years are mid 20's. Toews will get resigned, so no sense wasting time on him. Zajac is typically in the upper teens in goals scored, so no real help there. Spezza is the same age as Vanek, a great passer, and has a bad back. Ryan would be awesome, but he will have everyone after him.

This means over the next 2 summers there are 2, yes only 2 top goal scorers available via UFA. That is it. Thing is, we have the money to go after both of them. This year we have 16 million to spend after resigning our RFA's. Buyout Franzen and we have 20. Spend 9 on Vanek and we have 11 left over. Next year we have that 11, 2 from Tootoo leaving, plus the cap goes up. So we should have another 15/16 million to spend and once again very few RFA/UFA to resign. We could go out and add Ryan next year for the same freaking money, and still have 6/7 million left over! All of this changes of course if we make a trade or 2, which we should do as well. Point is, money and cap are not an issue right now, nor will it be for at least the next 4 or 5 years.

DD, I don't think anyone wants Vanek for 7 years. I said shorter term and higher salary from the begining of this. 5 years/45 million or 4 years/10 million. Then let him go.

[DickieDunn 2,571]

Why wouldn't he be the go to guy here? he would be the best goal scorer we have. Datsyuk is far more a passer than natural goal scorer. They would be a great pair.

I don't care what Franzen's 82 game averages are, he doesn't play 82 games. After his 3 or 4 concussions he will play less and less every year.

Vanek btw scored 20 goals in 38 games last year. That is a 40+ goal pace over a full season.

Come 2015 there are 5 UFA's that would be of interest: kane, Toews, Zajac, Spezza, and Ryan. Of those 5 not one has ever scored 40 goals. Kane has 1 season of scoring 30. Most of his years are mid 20's. Toews will get resigned, so no sense wasting time on him. Zajac is typically in the upper teens in goals scored, so no real help there. Spezza is the same age as Vanek, a great passer, and has a bad back. Ryan would be awesome, but he will have everyone after him.

This means over the next 2 summers there are 2, yes only 2 top goal scorers available via UFA. That is it. Thing is, we have the money to go after both of them. This year we have 16 million to spend after resigning our RFA's. Buyout Franzen and we have 20. Spend 9 on Vanek and we have 11 left over. Next year we have that 11, 2 from Tootoo leaving, plus the cap goes up. So we should have another 15/16 million to spend and once again very few RFA/UFA to resign. We could go out and add Ryan next year for the same freaking money, and still have 6/7 million left over! All of this changes of course if we make a trade or 2, which we should do as well. Point is, money and cap are not an issue right now, nor will it be for at least the next 4 or 5 years.

DD, I don't think anyone wants Vanek for 7 years. I said shorter term and higher salary from the begining of this. 5 years/45 million or 4 years/10 million. Then let him go.

He wouldn't be the go to guy here because despite him scoring 30 goals, he isn't a better player than Datsyuk or Zetterberg.

The last 3 years, not counting this season, Vanek played 2 more games total than Franzen did. Vanek played 80, 78, and 38 games. Franzen played 76, 77, and 41.

I don't care about his pace. By that argument Nyquist is going to be a 30 goal guy next year, so we don't need to sign Vanek anyway.

Finally, Vanek reportedly turned down 7 years $50 mil. Even if it was because he didn't want to play for the Isles, I don't see him taking that much less to play for someone else, and reports that I've seen have all said he's looking for that type of deal. Which is my point. He isn't worth that much money for that term. I've said that I'd give him $7 mil for 4 years, even though I don't think he's worth that much, but no way in hell should he get that much over 7 years.

Are they going to outlaw trading in the future? Because I think that would be a terrible idea

Are you talking about the Wings trading Vanek later? Would you trade for a 25 goal scorer making $7 mil a season? I sure as hell wouldn't.

[stillwater 186]

Youll never get ahead in life if you play it safe 100% of the time.

Try the alternative of buying every new thing that comes out because well it's new ... see how that works.

It's good for about 5 minutes, then you're stuck with it forever. Last time I looked the NHL has no EBAY.

[Datsyukian-Deke 722]

Do you think the penguins would trade Shero for Holland straight up? We need a GM with balls to pull the trigger on a deal.

[stillwater 186]

Do you think the penguins would trade Shero for Holland straight up? We need a GM with balls to pull the trigger on a deal.

Still bugging you that the Pens just got Spencer Machacek?

[DickieDunn 2,571]

Try the alternative of buying every new thing that comes out because well it's new ... see how that works.

It's good for about 5 minutes, then you're stuck with it forever. Last time I looked the NHL has no EBAY.

Ask the Rags how that works

[Z Winged Dangler 2,082]

Ah Matt Greene. He's like a bigger, RH shooting Mark Stuart. Also he's from Michigan....I like it.

Ya. I was braindead yesterday after a long week at work. I've always liked Matt Greene and he was a beast in the Kings Cup run. Steady and mean. That's the part of Rich's scheme I liked. But after that. ...sorry Rich, ya dismantled too much of the future to get Vanek and a couple others. The future of this team after Z and Dats is Tatar, Nyquist, Mantha, Jarnkrok, Ouellet, Sproul, Sheahan and Tinky. Get a guy via FA when one is available to help out those kids. Vanek would be good to offer 5 years at 7per in the offseason but not as a rental this year with a possibility of signing this summer.

[Datsyukian-Deke 722]

Still bugging you that the Pens just got Spencer Machacek?

I guess I'm still venting over re-signing Cleary...

[Buppy 1,720]

Yes, everyone wants the RW's to pick up their personnel ideal player. Well guess what. Those guys are not out there. You can only pick up what is available. Hell Alfie who is 41 just got paid 5.2 million. You don't think vanek is worth 7+? That is just crazy. Again look at our roster for next season. We are full and have a bunch of money left over.

F: Datsyuk, Z, Nyquist, tatar, Jurco, Sheahan, Helm, Abby, Tootoo, Franzen, Miller, Glendening, Callahan, and Weiss. Who is ready in GR? No one. maybe Mantha in Feb if he has a great start. Only 1 guy can go to the minors without having to clear waivers. This is our forward group. A bottom 1/3 scoring group overall. Yes adding a guy like Perry or Ryan would be awesome. But they at this point in time are not available. Some talk about adding a top pair D man. There are none in UFA so we would have to trade. If that is what we are going to do, say good bye to 2 maybe 3 out of the Sheahan, Jurco, Tatar, and Nyquist group. Plus some young Dmen. if we do that, heck we don't even have 14 NHL caliber forwards. Do we even have 12 at that point?

Some of you are questioning Vaneks ability to score. That is juts silly. On a bad Sabres team last year he scored 20 in 48 games. Playing with Datsyuk and Z he gets 40+ easily. Yes he is that good of a goal scorer. Not he is not a great D player nor is he physical. Again, who out there AVAILABLE is? No one.

You're the one being silly. We're hovering just above being a bottom 1/3rd team now, and our top 7 forwards have combined to miss 137 games. Basically a third of the season from each. And that with a defense corps that's almost completely ineffective offensively.

Assuming Vanek would score 40+ is optimistic. Sure, he had a great year last year. 26, 32, and 28 the 3 years prior. On pace for ~28 this year, even though he's playing on one of the best lines in the league. There are plenty of other UFAs who will be available, some not far from Vanek's level.

You think our offense is that bad, but you think adding Vanek (or more accurately, replacing Franzen with Vanek) would make us good? Realistically, he'd likely add 5-20 goals over whoever we add if we don't get him. He is not the hockey messiah. He's not Gordio Gretzman. We're not doomed for all eternity if we don't get him. We're an ok team (possibly better, hard to say) without him. There's probably 5-10 guys who could push us into the realm of good.

I'm all for getting Vanek, I'd even overpay a bit if we could get him for 2-3 years. I'd be ok with 7 years if it was a good hit. But you're blowing both our need and his value way out of proportion.

[haroldsnepsts 4,826]

Ya. I was braindead yesterday after a long week at work. I've always liked Matt Greene and he was a beast in the Kings Cup run. Steady and mean. That's the part of Rich's scheme I liked. But after that. ...sorry Rich, ya dismantled too much of the future to get Vanek and a couple others. The future of this team after Z and Dats is Tatar, Nyquist, Mantha, Jarnkrok, Ouellet, Sproul, Sheahan and Tinky. Get a guy via FA when one is available to help out those kids. Vanek would be good to offer 5 years at 7per in the offseason but not as a rental this year with a possibility of signing this summer.

I'd love to have Greene on the Wings as a bottom pairing guy. Very physical, great character guy, plays a lot of PK minutes. He and Ericsson out there would be a force to contend with.

He's been a healthy scratch for the Kings few games this season, so maybe he'd be looking for a change. I don't know that him being a RH shot helps a ton because he's not going to contribute on offense, and he'd have to take a pay cut.

[joesuffP 1,746]

Vanek is going to be a sweepstakes much like Suter

I was so heartbroken when we didn't get him. Never taking writers insider information seriously again