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Richdg

The MANtha watch.....

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31 minutes ago, LoveMyRedWings56 said:

No way're we dealing Mantha for an elite D it would probably take both Larkin and Mantha to acquire an elite D that's just not happening not sure what elite D out there i would be willing to give up Mantha for not too many.

I think Dickie's looking ahead a couple of years to a hypothetical situation where Larkin and Mantha have established themselves as truly elite players. In which case, yeah, Mantha probably could fetch us a really good young defenseman...but probably not an elite 1D. If we only have two elite players and they're both forwards and we're looking to trade one for a defenseman, that defenseman has to be phenomenal.

37 minutes ago, Jonas Mahonas said:

The problem is that you cant get tbe elite D after he is elie, unless you have another one to trade with (Subban for Weber).

That, or your prospective trade partner has an embarrassment of riches on the blue line and desperately needs to add a top-tier forward, as in Nashville trading Seth Jones for Ryan Johansen. Though, even there, Nashville gave up a young 1C for a defenseman who isn't guaranteed to become a great 1D. And now Columbus is trying to win a Cup with Nick Foligno/Alexander Wennberg and Brandon Dubinsky as their top two centermen. Fortunately for them, Werenski and Bobrovsky are phenomenal.

57 minutes ago, Jonas Mahonas said:

OEL is rumored to be available.  He is 26 and probably 1 to 2 years away from having a 5 year stretch where he could be elite.

Huh? OEL has been an elite defenseman for years now.

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How many true #1 Dmen ever get moved? The only deal I can think of was subban for weber...2 Dmen moving for each other. Becasue they are so hard to find no one trades them. So draft and develop. It is the only answer. Maybe sign a guy like Carlsson.

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2 hours ago, MileHighWingsGuy said:

the Wings remain loyal to a fault with every other damn worthless player and now we need to consider trading Larkin, Mantha or AA? Screw that!! You'd better sign all of them to long term deals and mess with the rest of the trash as needed.

Its about value, and the kids have value. No team is going to trade us a 1D for for any of our vets that you consider trash. Most players has value and can bring something to the team. A guy like Nyquist for example could probably land us an older lower end top 4 guy (a Daley type) but we dont need another guy like that, but a guy like Larkin could probably land us a potential top pairing guy (ie. a Theodore, Trouba kind of guy).

Its not that people want these kids gone, its about filling the most pressing need this team has, and that is a top D-man.

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3 hours ago, MileHighWingsGuy said:

the Wings remain loyal to a fault with every other damn worthless player and now we need to consider trading Larkin, Mantha or AA? Screw that!! You'd better sign all of them to long term deals and mess with the rest of the trash as needed.

I mean unless you have the ability to magically grow a defenseman from the ceiling of LCA, that's usually how trades are done. You know, like when Drouin was traded... Like when Hall was traded.. 

 

Edited by kickazz

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5 hours ago, Richdg said:

How many true #1 Dmen ever get moved? The only deal I can think of was subban for weber...2 Dmen moving for each other. Becasue they are so hard to find no one trades them. So draft and develop. It is the only answer. Maybe sign a guy like Carlsson.

I agree that draft and develop is the way to go since these trades are so rare. But there have been other pretty good Dmen traded: maybe not all #1 guys, but all of Hamilton, Burns, Byfuglien, Erik Johnson, Seth Jones.

But anyway, I wouldn't be desperate for the top D trade right now and would have to be quite a player to think of giving up one of these guys like Mantha Larkin, AA who seem so important for the future. We have a few years of drafting and rebuilding so hopefully we do find some good Dmen through the draft.

Edited by PavelValerievichDatsyuk

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1 hour ago, kickazz said:

I mean unless you have the ability to magically grow a defenseman from the ceiling of LCA, that's usually how trades are done. You know, like when Drouin was traded... Like when Hall was traded.. 

 

We've gone years without a meaningful trade the last thing I want to see is Holland honing his trade skills on any one of those three. Draft and grow the D, I'd rather see the big three on lock down for years to come. Mantha, Larkin and AA are the reason I watch Wings and I want to watch them for years to come.

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43 minutes ago, MileHighWingsGuy said:

We've gone years without a meaningful trade the last thing I want to see is Holland honing his trade skills on any one of those three. Draft and grow the D, I'd rather see the big three on lock down for years to come. Mantha, Larkin and AA are the reason I watch Wings and I want to watch them for years to come.

I dont disagree with you but if there’s stud defenseman available for a 1 for 1 deal it would be stupid not to trade for him. 

Edited by kickazz

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17 minutes ago, MileHighWingsGuy said:

We've gone years without a meaningful trade the last thing I want to see is Holland honing his trade skills on any one of those three. Draft and grow the D, I'd rather see the big three on lock down for years to come. Mantha, Larkin and AA are the reason I watch Wings and I want to watch them for years to come.

I wouldn't worry about it. Holland has no interest in moving Larkin or Mantha and I think he only moves Athanasiou if it becomes clear that the relationship is just not going to work.

I believe Holland is or will be looking to move Nyquist for a pick and/or prospect this season. A salary dump to help the "Sign Larkin, Mantha, Athanasiou" fund and a way to open a permanent spot for Athanasiou in the top six.

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19 hours ago, Neomaxizoomdweebie said:

images.jpg.dc2519feb17b94d0ce0b70a2e8d67a1a.jpg

Elite D are a lot harder to find than wingers, and are more valuable.

53 minutes ago, MileHighWingsGuy said:

We've gone years without a meaningful trade the last thing I want to see is Holland honing his trade skills on any one of those three. Draft and grow the D, I'd rather see the big three on lock down for years to come. Mantha, Larkin and AA are the reason I watch Wings and I want to watch them for years to come.

the problem with that is that by the time they draft and develop a guy into a legit #1 elite lever D, the young forwards are going to be closing in on 30.  If they can move Mantha and some other pieces (not Larkin or AA) and get OEL or a similar player, they're going to be better off long term.

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2 hours ago, DickieDunn said:

Elite D are a lot harder to find than wingers, and are more valuable.

the problem with that is that by the time they draft and develop a guy into a legit #1 elite lever D, the young forwards are going to be closing in on 30.  If they can move Mantha and some other pieces (not Larkin or AA) and get OEL or a similar player, they're going to be better off long term.

I don't disagree with your theory Dickie. It's just not Mantha that I would want to trade.

When you look at how the "dynasties" are built in the NHL over the last 2 decades, I see a common formula: 2 elite F's and 1 elite D that you build around. Chicago has Toews, Kane, and Keith; Pitt has Crosby, Malkin, and Letang. Even the Wings started with Yzerman, Federov, and Lidstrom.

The current Wings have Larkin and Mantha, and that's a start to build around. What they need now is that 1 D. With AA, Svech, even Rass, I don't know that Mantha needs to be the guy to go. Cornerstone D are the hardest to find, I agree. But power forwards with hands aren't easy to find either. And that's what I see Mantha developing into. If someone calls inquiring about Mantha and they have that 1D you want, you listen. But the only way I am trading Mantha would be a Shanahan for Pronger type deal, and those are rare.

And I totally agree with you about the development aspect. Defenseman take longer to develop and reach their prime. Even if the Wings draft that guy this year it will be 7-10 years before he hits his prime and by then Mantha will be like 30 something? and Larkin pushing 30. So yes, if they want one they will have to trade for one.

I would keep all their picks this year and draft heavily on defensemen. Then I would look at a trade over the summer involving some combination of AA, Svech, Nyquist, Mrazek and 2019's first (basically anything but Larkin or Mantha) for that defensemen. Karlssons, Doughtys, Keiths, etc are drafted. They aren't acquired thru trades, but really good 1D can be. And I think the Wings have the pieces to acquire one without Mantha.

Edited by Neomaxizoomdweebie

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If you want a top end young defenseman, you're not going to get him for AA and other secondary players.  It's going to take Mantha or Larkin plus something.  Of the two of them, Larkin is more valuable.  Svechnikov has a shot at being as good as Mantha.  What center has Larkin's potential?  I don't think AA is ever going to be as good at center because of his 2 way play.

 

But no, I wouldn't trade Mantha for anything less than a high end young D with elite potential.

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Larkin and Mantha are off limits for me, unless we can get an elite number one defenseman for one of them straight up, and that's not going to happen. Like has been mentioned, the best teams in the league have a minimum of two elite (or borderline elite) forwards, and one elite defenseman. We have the two forward pieces in Larkin and Mantha, so I wouldn't try to fill the defense hole by creating a hole elsewhere.

No, we're not going to get an elite defenseman without trading an elite player, but I don't believe we should be trying to trade for an established elite defenseman. We should be trading for a defenseman with elite potential. Those are available without trading a Larkin or Mantha. I always go back to the Hamilton trade, who was traded for picks (a 1st and two 2nd's). I'd look to teams like Nashville and Carolina, that have a plethora of high end defenseman on the big club, as well as in the pipeline. Neither Jake Bean or Dante Fabbro are going to cost a Larkin or Mantha, or even Athanasiou for that matter. Bean and Fabbro may never become elite either, but the potential is there, and worst case they become serviceable defensemen, that didn't cost the farm to acquire.

All of this will be moot anyway when we land Dahlin in next year's draft...

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I'd trade Nyquist+ for Matt Dumba, then keep two of Cholowski, Hronek, Saarijarvi, or Hicketts.   Trade the other two.   Sign veteran partners to play alongside them,  provided the partners have excellent possession numbers (whomever the 2020 version of Jason Demers or Trevor Daley is).

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Trading our best player for a Dman in the hope we become a better team is a pretty big risk. As all deals are. The first thing we have to do is free up cap space. We have zero. A top pair Dman is going to cost 8+ million. Even if we moved a young RFA F which all 3 are that doesn't give us the room we need.

Now there are some veteran UFA top pair Dman available this summer. Go after them. Then instead of subtracting to add, we are just adding. Having a team with Mantha, Larkin, AA and Carlson is better than just having Mantha, Larkin, and a top Dman.

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Let me finish the thought. Lets free up the cap space. Then resign Green and sign Carlson. Now we can have the following BL corp:

Daley-Carlson

Dekeyser-Green

Oullett-Jensen

2 really good pairs. All 3 are balanced LH and RH. Not to mention we kept all of our good young F's. To do that we need to free up 14+ million. Which is what happens if we LTIR Kronwall, buyout Ericsson, trade Helm, Nyquist, and maybe Tatar. Is it a SC winning team? Not yet. But its a team that makes the playoffs and is on the upward swing.

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On 11/18/2017 at 10:17 PM, DickieDunn said:

If you want a top end young defenseman, you're not going to get him for AA and other secondary players.  It's going to take Mantha or Larkin plus something.  Of the two of them, Larkin is more valuable.  Svechnikov has a shot at being as good as Mantha.  What center has Larkin's potential?  I don't think AA is ever going to be as good at center because of his 2 way play.

 

But no, I wouldn't trade Mantha for anything less than a high end young D with elite potential.

There are only like 10 what I would consider "elite" dmen. The teams that have them aren't giving them up. There are say 15-20 what I would consider "good" top pair dmen out there. They can be had for the right price. The Wings have the pieces to pay THAT price w/o Mantha is what I was saying.

Edited by Neomaxizoomdweebie

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14 hours ago, krsmith17 said:

Larkin and Mantha are off limits for me, unless we can get an elite number one defenseman for one of them straight up, and that's not going to happen. Like has been mentioned, the best teams in the league have a minimum of two elite (or borderline elite) forwards, and one elite defenseman. We have the two forward pieces in Larkin and Mantha, so I wouldn't try to fill the defense hole by creating a hole elsewhere.

No, we're not going to get an elite defenseman without trading an elite player, but I don't believe we should be trying to trade for an established elite defenseman. We should be trading for a defenseman with elite potential. Those are available without trading a Larkin or Mantha. I always go back to the Hamilton trade, who was traded for picks (a 1st and two 2nd's). I'd look to teams like Nashville and Carolina, that have a plethora of high end defenseman on the big club, as well as in the pipeline. Neither Jake Bean or Dante Fabbro are going to cost a Larkin or Mantha, or even Athanasiou for that matter. Bean and Fabbro may never become elite either, but the potential is there, and worst case they become serviceable defensemen, that didn't cost the farm to acquire.

All of this will be moot anyway when we land Dahlin in next year's draft...

Well, we hope we have the two elite forwards in Larkin and Mantha. Still too early to say exactly what we have in them. But, yeah, they're good enough -- and we're desperate enough for anything remotely resembling top-end talent -- that they should be pretty much untouchable anyway. The goal is to produce (potential) top talent without giving up (potential) top talent. So, I agree: we shouldn't try to fill the big defense hole by creating big holes elsewhere. To fill that defense hole, we're gonna have to draft a stud and/or sign a marquee UFA.

Trading for a defenseman with elite potential is also still an option. However, I'm really starting to question how realistic an option it actually is, especially with Samuel Girard being a centerpiece of the Duchene trade. I don't think any of our prospects have any real trade value. I don't think Nyquist and Tatar have any real trade value. Mantha and Larkin are probably the only assets we have that could get us a Samuel Girard. Maybe Athanasiou. I don't think we're in a position to be trading first-round picks.

We really need Dahlin. We really, really need Dahlin. Fortunately, it's looking like the top of the 2018 draft class will be loaded with outstanding defensemen. There'll only be one Dahlin, but there could be multiple Sergachevs.

I'm still against signing John Carlson, because I'm just not sold on him being an elite 1D that you can build a championship team around. Giving him $50M would be an enormous gamble for pretty much any organization, IMO.

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5 hours ago, Neomaxizoomdweebie said:

 

There are only like 10 what I would consider "elite" dmen. The teams that have them aren't giving them up. There are say 15-20 what I would consider "good" top pair dmen out there. They can be had for the right price. The Wings have the pieces to pay THAT price w/o Mantha is what I was saying.

An elite D-man in their prime is not coming here, you're right. What I think the Wings should do is make a trade for a kid who has a high probability of becoming one. I dont want to trade a kid for a top 4 guy, I want to trade a kid for a potential 1A guy....a guy like a Trouba, Theodore etc.

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6 hours ago, Dabura said:

Well, we hope we have the two elite forwards in Larkin and Mantha. Still too early to say exactly what we have in them. But, yeah, they're good enough -- and we're desperate enough for anything remotely resembling top-end talent -- that they should be pretty much untouchable anyway. The goal is to produce (potential) top talent without giving up (potential) top talent. So, I agree: we shouldn't try to fill the big defense hole by creating big holes elsewhere. To fill that defense hole, we're gonna have to draft a stud and/or sign a marquee UFA.

Trading for a defenseman with elite potential is also still an option. However, I'm really starting to question how realistic an option it actually is, especially with Samuel Girard being a centerpiece of the Duchene trade. I don't think any of our prospects have any real trade value. I don't think Nyquist and Tatar have any real trade value. Mantha and Larkin are probably the only assets we have that could get us a Samuel Girard. Maybe Athanasiou. I don't think we're in a position to be trading first-round picks.

We really need Dahlin. We really, really need Dahlin. Fortunately, it's looking like the top of the 2018 draft class will be loaded with outstanding defensemen. There'll only be one Dahlin, but there could be multiple Sergachevs.

I'm still against signing John Carlson, because I'm just not sold on him being an elite 1D that you can build a championship team around. Giving him $50M would be an enormous gamble for pretty much any organization, IMO.

I agree for the most past, and that's what I meant with Larkin and Mantha. The potential is there for both to be in that borderline elite class. I don't think there's any question that Mantha will be a top line winger, how good of a top line winger he can be, is still up in the air. As for Larkin, he will definitely be a top 6 center. Whether he becomes a very good 1C, or a great 2C is undetermined, hopefully the former.

As for the bolded, I don't really buy into that. I think there are teams out there that are well set on the back end, but could use some help up front that would be interested in some of the pieces we have. Nyquist and Tatar still have trade value, but you're probably right in that they alone wouldn't get a high end defensive prospect. Part of a bigger package, maybe. Athanasiou would though in my opinion. Svechnikov is off to a horrifically slow start, but if he heats up, and starts producing at or close to a point per game pace, I think a lot of teams would have interest in him. Point is, I don't think we would have to trade Larkin or Mantha in order to get a high end defensive prospect, and a high end defensive prospect is exactly what I'd be in the market for if I were Ken Holland.

We're not going to get a Sergachev type, but we could get a Girard type, who is a highly regarded prospect that just got traded along with Kamenev, another really good prospect, and a 2nd round pick for Turris. Nothing against Turris, I've said in the past that he is underrated, but he's also a 28 year old 2C. Point is, Nashville badly wanted to add offense, and Girard wasn't as important to them (behind Josi, Ekhold, Subban, Emelin, Ellis) as he was to Colorado (top pair with Johnson). Maybe after that deal, Poile wouldn't be so eager to make another trade sending out another defense prospect for offense, but if we could get Fabbro, I'd do it. I do think there are other potential trading partners out there though (Carolina, Philadelphia, Calgary, Anaheim, Minnesota)...

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Every time reading about trading good complete players for some elite potential, I´m just opening last decade draft results and take a look how many elite (=players who could be top pairing for us now)  Ds came from 20+OA. I believe this organization is doing something wrong. And I hope Cholo is going to be the point breaking this habbit. 

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8 hours ago, krsmith17 said:

I agree for the most past, and that's what I meant with Larkin and Mantha. The potential is there for both to be in that borderline elite class. I don't think there's any question that Mantha will be a top line winger, how good of a top line winger he can be, is still up in the air. As for Larkin, he will definitely be a top 6 center. Whether he becomes a very good 1C, or a great 2C is undetermined, hopefully the former.

As for the bolded, I don't really buy into that. I think there are teams out there that are well set on the back end, but could use some help up front that would be interested in some of the pieces we have. Nyquist and Tatar still have trade value, but you're probably right in that they alone wouldn't get a high end defensive prospect. Part of a bigger package, maybe. Athanasiou would though in my opinion. Svechnikov is off to a horrifically slow start, but if he heats up, and starts producing at or close to a point per game pace, I think a lot of teams would have interest in him. Point is, I don't think we would have to trade Larkin or Mantha in order to get a high end defensive prospect, and a high end defensive prospect is exactly what I'd be in the market for if I were Ken Holland.

We're not going to get a Sergachev type, but we could get a Girard type, who is a highly regarded prospect that just got traded along with Kamenev, another really good prospect, and a 2nd round pick for Turris. Nothing against Turris, I've said in the past that he is underrated, but he's also a 28 year old 2C. Point is, Nashville badly wanted to add offense, and Girard wasn't as important to them (behind Josi, Ekhold, Subban, Emelin, Ellis) as he was to Colorado (top pair with Johnson). Maybe after that deal, Poile wouldn't be so eager to make another trade sending out another defense prospect for offense, but if we could get Fabbro, I'd do it. I do think there are other potential trading partners out there though (Carolina, Philadelphia, Calgary, Anaheim, Minnesota)...

I think the real problem for us is that we lack players that other teams really covet. We have good assets and, in theory, we should be able to put together a package that could get us a Girard type. But, ultimately, market/trade value comes down to what GMs want and what they're willing to give up to get it. If a GM is going to give up a high-end D prospect, he's going to want something *Sexy*, an asset that many GMs covet. *A Real Good 1C* or *A Real Good 2C* or *A Jonathan Drouin*. GMs generally want Taylor Halls, not Nugent-Hopkinses.

We could offer, say, Tatar and a 2nd and a prospect, but I don't think that really excites any GM, unless they're desperate. I imagine Ron Francis holds out for something better. "Well, I've got Lou offering me Marner for Hanifin. Can you offer me *A Mitch Marner*?" I guess we could counter with Athanasiou, but I'm not sure he's viewed as favorably as we'd like to think he is. To be clear, I'm not necessarily saying AA is inferior to Marner. Rather, I'm saying Marner has name recognition and draft pedigree that AA doesn't have. The HYPE! is stronger with Marner.

The hope, I guess, is that we find a perfect fit. That the stars align and Holland('s successor) finds a way to trade pieces we don't need for a high-end D prospect that [insert GM] feels he doesn't need. But I'm not holding my breath.

tl;dr Anthony DeAngelo and the 7th overall pick in a weak draft cost the Rangers a solid 1C in Derek Stepan. Trades are hard dumb. :unhappy:

Edited by Dabura

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