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2019 Draft

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2 hours ago, Neomaxizoomdweebie said:

As much as I like it, I dont think Dach goes before Byram.

6th is the worst spot for me. There are 5 guys I would be happy with: Hughes, Kakko, Cozens, Podholzin, and Byram. All of them could go in the top 5, leaving Dach and Zegras as "consolation prizes" IMO.

Feel the same.  Broberg is my 6th selection.  Have no idea why he has fallen so out of favor.  Tall, long guy with huge reach and A+ skating.  So what that his pick skills are choppy as a 17 year old.

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1 hour ago, HoweFan said:

Who would you target in the second round if you picked a forward like Turcotte in the first?  Who if you picked Byrum?  With Turcotte I would go for Korczak in two. With Byrum I’m hoping Leason slides

Mikko Kokkonen is my guy atm, regardless of who we select in the 1st.

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20 hours ago, Jonas Mahonas said:

1. No Chance Dach goes before Cozens.

There's definitely a chance Dach goes before Cozens. Some reasons for thinking so:

  • Dach is arguably more of a true centerman than Cozens is
  • Dach is arguably the better passer and is arguably better at utilizing his linemates in general
  • Dach arguably has better hockey IQ/sense, i.e. he's arguably the more high-level thinker, high-level processor, high-level playmaker
  • Dach is arguably better at "slowing the game down" and playing a deliberate, calculating possession game

Dach's game is maybe a little less flashy, a bit more understated; he's a pass-first playmaker, he lacks Cozens' explosive speed and lethal close-range shot, and I suppose you could say Cozens is more in-your-face aggressive in the way he utilizes his big frame. My concern with Cozens has always been that his natural advantages are allowing him to feast on his CHL peers and he might hit a wall at the pro level, where he won't have the same dramatic size and speed advantages and might therefore have to cultivate other parts of his game which go beyond raw athleticism.

Dach definitely has a size advantage over his CHL peers and his skating is pretty good, but I feel it's mainly his brain and his hands that make him so effective. You can teach a player to use his big frame more effectively and you can improve a player's skating, but you can't really teach a player to process the game the way Dach does and you can't teach hands like Dach's.

All of that being said, I feel Dach and Cozens are pretty equal overall. Cozens might be both the safer and sexier pick, but Dach's best assets are the stuff Kopitars and Barkovs and Thorntons are made of. At the risk of oversimplifying, it's Potential Jeff Carter versus Potential Anze Kopitar, with the former being more likely to come true than the latter.

22 hours ago, Jonas Mahonas said:

2. Would be ultra surprised if Broberg doesnt go top 10.  With the exception of Brendan Smith, you can teach defense.  You cant teach speed.  Broberg has wheels, and he's big.

I like Broberg, but I get why opinions of him are mixed. On the one hand, there are aspects of his game which are extremely tantalizing. On the other hand, it's not necessarily clear that he possesses all the tools needed to become a really effective top-four defenseman in the NHL.

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5 hours ago, HoweFan said:

Who would you target in the second round if you picked a forward like Turcotte in the first?  Who if you picked Byrum?  With Turcotte I would go for Korczak in two. With Byrum I’m hoping Leason slides

I like Connor McMichael early in the second. 

1 hour ago, Dabura said:

I like Broberg, but I get why opinions of him are mixed. On the one hand, there are aspects of his game which are extremely tantalizing. On the other hand, it's not necessarily clear that he possesses all the tools needed to become a really effective top-four defenseman in the NHL.

I'm not crazy about Broberg.  Every single scouting report I've read suggests his offense isn't too good despite his excellent skating.  Sounds a bit too much like Brendan Smith to me.  If we don't select Byram I'd prefer we wait on a defenseman. 

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Dach seems like a right-handed Rasmussen to me (big body, average skater, average shot, great hands) which isn't necessarily a bad thing, but wouldn't be my pick at 6. I didn't love Ras at 9 in 2017, and I wouldn't be thrilled with Dach at 6 in 2019...

Pro: right-handed shot.

Con: his name is Kirby.

6 hours ago, kipwinger said:

I like Connor McMichael early in the second. 

Same, but unfortunately, I doubt he'll be available at 35...

 

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1 hour ago, krsmith17 said:

Dach seems like a right-handed Rasmussen to me (big body, average skater, average shot, great hands) which isn't necessarily a bad thing, but wouldn't be my pick at 6. I didn't love Ras at 9 in 2017, and I wouldn't be thrilled with Dach at 6 in 2019...

I'd say the difference is Dach is more of a driver whereas Rasmussen is pretty much a net-front specialist. IMO, Dach is more skilled and dynamic, his skating is better, and he's the better two-way player, all of which gives him the higher floor and the higher ceiling.

8 hours ago, kipwinger said:

I like Connor McMichael early in the second. 

I'm not crazy about Broberg.  Every single scouting report I've read suggests his offense isn't too good despite his excellent skating.  Sounds a bit too much like Brendan Smith to me.  If we don't select Byram I'd prefer we wait on a defenseman. 

1 hour ago, krsmith17 said:

Same, but unfortunately, I doubt he'll be available at 35...

Yeah, I'm assuming McMichael gets taken in the 1st round. Same with Bobby Brink, another under-the-radar centerman I really like.

Edited by Dabura

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4 minutes ago, Dabura said:

Can play center and I think I prefer him there, but you're right, he's basically a winger at this point.

Well, I suppose any player can play any position, but I haven't seen him listed as a center anywhere. Regardless, I agree, I'd definitely take a long hard look at him at 35, if he's available, depending on who else slips. I'm still hoping Newhook continues to fall. He could be our Veleno pick this year...

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11 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

Well, I suppose any player can play any position, but I haven't seen him listed as a center anywhere. Regardless, I agree, I'd definitely take a long hard look at him at 35, if he's available, depending on who else slips. I'm still hoping Newhook continues to fall. He could be our Veleno pick this year...

Some places do have him as a C:

http://www.mynhldraft.com/2019-nhl-draft/player-profiles/Bobby-Brink

https://dobberprospects.com/cam-robinsons-2019-nhl-draft-rankings-top-100-february-2019/

I guess it's one of those Brady Tkachuk situations where the player's settled in as a winger but he does have some experience playing center. Peyton Krebs would be another example. In one of the two times I've watched Brink, I could've sworn I saw him play center on a few shifts. But, yeah, it's more accurate to call him a winger at this point.

In any case, we're in agreement. I think we're gonna see some really good players slide. Maybe not the likes of a Newhook, but I guess you never know. (See: Veleno, Joe. Like you said.)

Edited by Dabura

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11 hours ago, Dabura said:

There's definitely a chance Dach goes before Cozens. Some reasons for thinking so:

  • Dach is arguably more of a true centerman than Cozens is
  • Dach is arguably the better passer and is arguably better at utilizing his linemates in general
  • Dach arguably has better hockey IQ/sense, i.e. he's arguably the more high-level thinker, high-level processor, high-level playmaker
  • Dach is arguably better at "slowing the game down" and playing a deliberate, calculating possession game

Dach's game is maybe a little less flashy, a bit more understated; he's a pass-first playmaker, he lacks Cozens' explosive speed and lethal close-range shot, and I suppose you could say Cozens is more in-your-face aggressive in the way he utilizes his big frame. My concern with Cozens has always been that his natural advantages are allowing him to feast on his CHL peers and he might hit a wall at the pro level, where he won't have the same dramatic size and speed advantages and might therefore have to cultivate other parts of his game which go beyond raw athleticism.

Dach definitely has a size advantage over his CHL peers and his skating is pretty good, but I feel it's mainly his brain and his hands that make him so effective. You can teach a player to use his big frame more effectively and you can improve a player's skating, but you can't really teach a player to process the game the way Dach does and you can't teach hands like Dach's.

All of that being said, I feel Dach and Cozens are pretty equal overall. Cozens might be both the safer and sexier pick, but Dach's best assets are the stuff Kopitars and Barkovs and Thorntons are made of. At the risk of oversimplifying, it's Potential Jeff Carter versus Potential Anze Kopitar, with the former being more likely to come true than the latter.

I like Broberg, but I get why opinions of him are mixed. On the one hand, there are aspects of his game which are extremely tantalizing. On the other hand, it's not necessarily clear that he possesses all the tools needed to become a really effective top-four defenseman in the NHL.

I'm just not seeing this.  In every video I've watched of Dach, his "passing ability" is him making a pass on the Power Play while stationary or slowly skating toward the crease.  I haven't seen him breaking thru a defense, drawing defenders, and then dishing to a player that's open.  And that's why I'm extremely leery of the Wings drafting him.  I'm not arguing that a Right Handed player who can man and distribute effectively on a power play wouldn't be valuable.  I'm saying that the Wings really need a guy who can do that AND be effective 5 on 5.

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Does it seem like a lot more forwards are only being listed wingers? IIIRC it used to be common to list kids as C in order to up their value. Only guys like an Ovechkin, for example, were listed as wingers. I believe that both Franzen and Nyquist were listed as centers when they were drafted, even tho they clearly weren't. It just seems like the draft is doing a better job of classifying players now?

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31 minutes ago, Jonas Mahonas said:

I'm just not seeing this.  In every video I've watched of Dach, his "passing ability" is him making a pass on the Power Play while stationary or slowly skating toward the crease.  I haven't seen him breaking thru a defense, drawing defenders, and then dishing to a player that's open.  And that's why I'm extremely leery of the Wings drafting him.  I'm not arguing that a Right Handed player who can man and distribute effectively on a power play wouldn't be valuable.  I'm saying that the Wings really need a guy who can do that AND be effective 5 on 5.

I've seen Cozens botch passes that Dach would've nailed. Some of them were relatively simple passes, the kind the Red Wings can't seem to execute with any kind of precision.

Like I said, Dach's game is more understated. If you want a hammer, Cozens is your guy. If you want a scalpel, Dach is your guy. (Oversimplification, but you get the point I'm making.)

Edited by Dabura

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7 minutes ago, Dabura said:

I've seen Cozens botch passes that Dach would've nailed. Some of them were relatively simple passes, the kind the Red Wings can't seem to execute with any kind of precision.

So in other words, you're saying Cozens would be the better fit for this team.

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Just now, Neomaxizoomdweebie said:

So in other words, you're saying Cozens would be the better fit for this team.

:lol:

You joke, but I do think it's something worth considering.

The Wings have at least a couple of high-octane burners who get stuff done largely through elite skating and sheer force of will. (Larkin, AA, possibly Veleno, possibly Berggren.) What the Wings don't necessarily have is a Zetterberg type pivot, someone with elite vision and elite hockey sense and the ability to slow down the game and pull strings like a puppetmaster. Someone who knows how to utilize his linemates beyond just skating hard and making power moves and dagger cuts to draw in defenders. Someone who can drive the bus as effectively as Larkin does but in a very different way. Mantha kinda fits the bill, I suppose, but he's not quite the matchup nightmare that we'd hoped he'd become.

Mind you, I'm strawmanning Cozens. You could just as easily say the WIngs are desperate for the things Cozens brings to the table, and you'd be right. Which is why I'm really high on Cozens. The point here is simply that Dach offers key qualities that I don't feel are quite as present in Cozens (and, to be fair, vice-versa), and that's why I believe it's entirely possible that Dach gets selected before Cozens.

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23 minutes ago, Neomaxizoomdweebie said:

Does it seem like a lot more forwards are only being listed wingers? IIIRC it used to be common to list kids as C in order to up their value. Only guys like an Ovechkin, for example, were listed as wingers. I believe that both Franzen and Nyquist were listed as centers when they were drafted, even tho they clearly weren't. It just seems like the draft is doing a better job of classifying players now?

I recall Franzen being a bona fide natural centerman over in Sweden at the time he was drafted. Consensus projection was a checking-line centerman. And, indeed, Franzen did go on to play some center in the NHL.

I get what you're saying tho. Not sure if it's a thing, but I guess it would make sense. There's more eyeballs on these players than there were 10-15 years ago, maybe that would have something to do with it.

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Jiri Fischer Heavy Article About Wings Scouting

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"I talk to everyone," Fischer said. "For me, it's very important to know the player's fitness level by talking to the strength coach as well as the head coach to really get to know the character of a player. It's very important to talk to a family member and observe how players interact with them -- and even with fans -- after the game. It's important to know who their best friends are and who might be influencing them good or bad, as well as their off-ice habits, whether that be in school or how their work on their game or even their social life. We gather a lot of information beyond just what a player is able to do on the ice because if we're going to be investing our time, energy and resources into this player, we're going to do our due diligence to make sure it's a worthy investment."

Right off the bat, Fischer says there are three things that will earn players a pretty swift thick black line through their name -- being lazy, being dumb and doing drugs.

"We can weed some guys off the list pretty quickly using these three criteria," he explained. "It's very hard to be a successful pro if you're lazy. It's very hard to be great at the next level when a player doesn't have the on-ice IQ or isn't willing to put in more work into studying the game, and the same goes for any player that starts exploring drugs.

Fischer and Red Wings management do their best to go the extra mile in showing their interest, whether that is stopping by after a game to say hello or inviting them to development camp or reaching out in the summer to see how they're doing or talking to their coaches and agents to make sure everyone is aware of their intentions. In the end, they make their best pitch and then they wait.

Last month, the extra effort paid off as the Red Wings signed two of the hottest commodities on the NCAA free agent market -- Ryan Kuffner out of Princeton and Taro Hirose out of Michigan State -- and Holland credited Fischer as a big reason why they were able to do that.

"Jiri Fischer does a great job of building relationships with the players and the agents and is in constant communication with them and certainly that's how you end up having people that want to join the organization," Holland said.

It was the culmination of more than two years of presenting the opportunity to be a Detroit Red Wing to them and while Holland was excited about the newest weapons in his team's offensive arsenal, he was also excited about what it meant for the future of the franchise.

"If we're going to get competitive, it's got to be done by competing for jobs and pushing people," he explained. "That's how we built the Red Wings from the early '90s to a few years ago and we're trying to get back to that. So, we're drafting lots of offensive players and we're trying to sign a lot of offensive players. We certainly know we've got to sign some defensemen, but we're hoping the increased internal competition is going to push them and, as a group, we'll be that much better.

"We're going to give opportunities to younger people. But at the same time, they've got to earn it. I'm not giving out jobs," Holland continued. "At some point in time, they're going to have an opportunity to get their feet wet, but I do not believe in entitlement. I think it's about accountability, it's about opportunity, it's about educating them to what you're trying to accomplish and hoping they want to be a part of it."

 

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Here's a good top ten from a few months ago that echoes some of my points re: Dach vs Cozens and also includes Mikko Kokkonen, aka my top 2nd-round target atm:

https://www.milehighhockey.com/2019/1/11/18178295/2019-nhl-entry-draft-rankings-jack-hughes-scouting-report

Quote

3. Kirby Dach - C - Saskatoon Blades (WHL)

Dach is a big-bodied playmaker with fantastic vision and passing skills. He was dominant playing against the best in his age group at the Ivan Hlinka last year and has continued that offensive dominance into the WHL season. A kid with his size has no business having hands as soft as Dach does.

He will be an elite power play quarterback at the NHL level as his vision and passing ability makes him lethal off the half-wall.

The knock on his game is that he doesn’t play with the explosiveness that we’re used to seeing from high-end NHLers these day. His style of play is a throwback to Joe Thornton and Ryan Getzlaf.

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4. Trevor Zegras - C - USNTDP U18

Hiding in the shadows of Jack Hughes is another elite center. Trevor Zegras has spent most of the season playing the 2C role behind Hughes and it’s causing a lot of people to overlook him. USA Hockey Associate coach Dan Hinote described his game as “very skilled, very smart, always dangerous and (he) has a chip on his shoulder. His playmaking ability rivals (Jack) Hughes’. He sees the ice very well and has the skill to get it there. His deception is fantastic, and even if you know exactly where he’s passing it, he still finds a way to get it there.”

A dynamically skilled offensive player, Zegras has been described as a “one and a half way” center - meaning that he’s working his way towards being a two-way guy. He has played on the wing with Hughes at times, but Zegras is a natural center that could very well be the 1C for Team USA at the World Juniors next winter.

Zegras is going to be the kid that is ranked around No. 10 going into the draft and then is a “surprise” when he’s selected in the top-5.

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5. Alex Turcotte - C - USNTDP U18

Speaking of being overshadowed, Alex Turcotte is a kid that is often underrated thanks to a season plagued by injuries as well as the depth of the USNTDP U18 team.

Turcotte plays at a high-tempo and while he is not as dynamic as his teammates, he has a more well-rounded game. He’s very strong on his skates and has the ability to win one-on-one battles. He’s not overly big, but an incredibly strong lower body that allows for a powerful, yet agile stride.

Turcotte has top line potential but could fit in as an elite 2C on a good team. He is what a lot of Avalanche fans expected Tyson Jost to be.

Quote

6. Bowen Byram - LD - Vancouver Giants (WHL)

An explosive skater who is the best in the class at leading the breakout. He has terrific north-south speed as well the vision and lateral movement to be able to make opponents miss through the neutral zone.

He has a big shot that will allow him to be the trigger-man on a power play.

He likes to stand up at his own blue line; either to strip the puck or deliver a hard check. When opponents do gain the zone on him, he maintains tight gap control and does well to hold proper position.

Byram can be guilty of thinking transition a little too early - a trade off that goes along with his high-end puck moving skills - but that is something that defenders with his skill set often learn to grow out of as they enter the NHL.

Quote

7. Dylan Cozens - RW - Lethbridge Hurricanes (WHL)

A right-shooting power forward, Cozens will likely settle in as a winger at the next level - but he’ll bring along the ability to help out in the faceoff circle.

He has great speed, a tremendous shot and plays a physical brand of hockey that will make him a fan favourite wherever he plays. Unfortunately, he lacks the type of natural on-ice awareness that would make him a top-3 prospect in the draft class.

He has a great first step and the high-end speed to pull away from defenders, but it’s his hard an accurate shot that will make him an effective scoring forward in the NHL.

Quote

8. Mikko Kokkonen - LD - Jukurit (Liiga)

Miro Heiskanen’s 10 points (5G, 5A) two years ago were the most by a draft eligible defenseman in the Finnish league in 30 years. Kokkonen already has two more than that. A lot like Rasmus Sandin last year, Kokkonen is a guy that is under six feet but plays a game that will make him a solid shut down guy in the NHL. Like Sandin, he’s not going to blow anyone away with flashy play, but he’s a guy that does everything well.

He’s not as skilled as Heiskanen, but Kokkonen is an incredibly smart player that has a great ability to read the play as it’s developing around him.

He skates well, makes a tremendous outlet pass and is very strong in puck battles. He is what a two-way defender looks like in today’s NHL.

Quote

9. Matthew Boldy - LW - USNTDP U18

Yes, he plays on the wing with Jack Hughes, and yes, that’s going to inflate a kid’s production numbers, but Matthew Boldy isn’t relying on his elite teammates to make him look good. He plays with good speed and has a shot that will make him a very good goal scorer in the NHL.

He skates well and forechecks with an energy level that defenders hate to play against. Boldy has strong vision of the ice and can read plays to open himself up in quiet areas. Boldy projects to be a good two-way top-6 winger in the NHL.

He doesn’t have the puck skills of his elite teammates, but Boldy is the kind of guy you want on the wing of your scoring line. He’s the Gabriel Landeskog to Hughes’ Nathan MacKinnon.

Quote

10. Philip Broberg - LD - AIK (SWE-2)

Broberg was by far the best defender at the Hlinka Memorial tournament last year. He is a tremendous skater - not just for his size - and has the ability to use his speed in both the transition game and as a defender. He has the skating ability to be an elite puck mover, now he has to work on the puck handling to go along with it.

He’s a late bloomer that shows flashes of elite potential.

He is one of the youngest defenders in the draft class so there is a lot of time for development. Broberg is a longer-term prospect than a guy like Byram. He is a kid that will likely spend another two years playing professionally in Sweden before making the transition to the NHL.

 

Edited by Dabura

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1 hour ago, Dabura said:

:lol:

You joke, but I do think it's something worth considering.

The Wings have at least a couple of high-octane burners who get stuff done largely through elite skating and sheer force of will. (Larkin, AA, possibly Veleno, possibly Berggren.) What the Wings don't necessarily have is a Zetterberg type pivot, someone with elite vision and elite hockey sense and the ability to slow down the game and pull strings like a puppetmaster. Someone who knows how to utilize his linemates beyond just skating hard and making power moves and dagger cuts to draw in defenders. Someone who can drive the bus as effectively as Larkin does but in a very different way. Mantha kinda fits the bill, I suppose, but he's not quite the matchup nightmare that we'd hoped he'd become.

Mind you, I'm strawmanning Cozens. You could just as easily say the WIngs are desperate for the things Cozens brings to the table, and you'd be right. Which is why I'm really high on Cozens. The point here is simply that Dach offers key qualities that I don't feel are quite as present in Cozens (and, to be fair, vice-versa), and that's why I believe it's entirely possible that Dach gets selected before Cozens.

This is a legit argument and one of the big reasons I've liked Zegras so much.  By all accounts his playmaking has elite upside.  Having a guy like that passing to a Zadina or AA or running a powerplay is a huge upgrade offensively.  You need to be able to score in different ways in the NHL.  We have pretty good transition scoring, and as Rasmussen develops I think he and Bert will give us all the greasy goals we'd ever need. But I don't see someone like a Nick Backstrom or Giroux who can pick you apart with their vision and passing.  Ovi is the best goal scorer of all time, but a huge contribution to that has always been Backstrom making cross ice passes through traffic look simple. 

Also, I have some crow to eat on Mantha.  I talked a lot of s*** about him being a  p*ssy, and he definitely is.  But he really impressed me with his playmaking this year.  His passing is WAY better than I thought and he scored at a 30 goal pace on top of it.  Hard to ask anything more out of the guy.  He may not be a 40 goal guy like I thought when we drafted him, but he might end up being more valuable if he turns into a 30 goal, 40 assist guy. 

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So, no Hughes or Kakko, lets say Cozens and Byram are also gone, do you draft a D man that high that "might" be a top 4 guy, do you draft another C that won't be here for awhile (especially since you already have Veleno coming soon) or do you deal the #6 pick away?

Would you trade the #6 pick and a player/prospect (Helm & Svech maybe) to WPG for Trouba and their 1st?

I guess for WPG to want to make that deal they'd have to fail miserably in the playoffs.  But honestly they are probably going to have hard time with Trouba again, so maybe they'd welcome the #6 pick for him.  It's just valuing their 1st that depends on what to add to the package. Helms NTC is void until the start of the season due to the clause that the Wings failed to make the playoffs, I happened to think Helm and Svech would be worth a late round 1st, but I really don't know for sure.

Anyhow, for me, if Byram or Cozens are both gone, that's what I would do.

to WPG:  #6 Pick, NHL Player, Prospect

to DET:  Jacob Trouba, 2019 1st round pick (TBD)

Not enough to WPG? What do you think?

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14 minutes ago, LeftWinger said:

So, no Hughes or Kakko, lets say Cozens and Byram are also gone, do you draft a D man that high that "might" be a top 4 guy, do you draft another C that won't be here for awhile (especially since you already have Veleno coming soon) or do you deal the #6 pick away?

Would you trade the #6 pick and a player/prospect (Helm & Svech maybe) to WPG for Trouba and their 1st?

I guess for WPG to want to make that deal they'd have to fail miserably in the playoffs.  But honestly they are probably going to have hard time with Trouba again, so maybe they'd welcome the #6 pick for him.  It's just valuing their 1st that depends on what to add to the package. Helms NTC is void until the start of the season due to the clause that the Wings failed to make the playoffs, I happened to think Helm and Svech would be worth a late round 1st, but I really don't know for sure.

Anyhow, for me, if Byram or Cozens are both gone, that's what I would do.

to WPG:  #6 Pick, NHL Player, Prospect

to DET:  Jacob Trouba, 2019 1st round pick (TBD)

Not enough to WPG? What do you think?

If Hughes, Kakko, Cozens, and Byram are off the board I draft Zegras or Turcotte.  This is a no brainer.  The next best defenseman is Broberg, and pretty much everyone says he doesn't have much offense...so hard pass.  And you DEFINITELY don't trade a 6th overall pick for a guy who's going to hit free agency at the end of next season.  Ever.  Never never ever do that. 

People are really overthinking this.  There is going to be a ton of high end talent left at #6, likely at key positions.  Don't overthink it.  Just take the top end center that's available (Zegras, Cozens, Turcotte, Dach) or Byram. 

Edited by kipwinger

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